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1.
Bioresour Technol ; 321: 124395, 2021 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33285509

RESUMEN

In this study the use of a particle filter algorithm to monitor Corynebacterium glutamicum fed-batch bioprocesses with uncertain raw material input composition is shown. The designed monitoring system consists of a dynamic model describing biomass growth on spent sulfite liquor. Based on particle filtering, model simulations are aligned with continuously and noninvasively measured carbon evolution and oxygen uptake rates, giving an estimate of the most probable culture state. Applied on two validation experiments, culture states were accurately estimated during batch and fed-batch operations with root mean square errors below 1.1 g L-1 for biomass, 0.6 g L-1 for multiple substrate concentrations and 0.01 g g-1 h-1 for biomass specific substrate uptake rates. Additionally, upon fed-batch start uncertain feedstock concentrations were corrected by the estimator without the need of any additional measurements. This provides a solid basis towards a more robust operation of bioprocesses utilizing lignocellulosic side streams.


Asunto(s)
Corynebacterium glutamicum , Biomasa , Fermentación , Sulfitos , Incertidumbre
2.
Sci Total Environ ; 756: 143889, 2021 Feb 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33302062

RESUMEN

Whale-watching is a global tourism industry whose annual revenue exceeds two billion dollars. Australia is a key player in this industry, especially on the east and west coast where humpback whales migrate each year between their breeding and feeding grounds. However, the global whale-watching industry faces uncertainty from changing whale migration patterns, with whales progressively 'arriving' at the traditional whale-watching areas earlier than in previous years/decades. If the whale-watching industry cannot evolve with these changing dynamics then the arrival of the whales might be missed resulting in a potential loss of revenue. This social-ecological issue has suddenly been exacerbated by the disruption to tourism caused by the global pandemic COVID-19. In this study, we use a systems modelling framework, which combines qualitative and quantitative processes, to evaluate the social-ecological system behaviour of the whale-watching industry. We apply this systems approach to the Gold Coast, one of Australia's premier tourist destinations and home to a vibrant whale-watching industry. The outcome of this systems assessment is that the efficacy of the whale-watching industry is affected through determinants of both supply (ability to respond to changes in whale behaviour) and demand (attractiveness of whale-watching). Furthermore, the recovery time of all tourism after COVID-19 will take years if not decades.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Animales , Australia , Ghana , Humanos , Incertidumbre
3.
Sci Total Environ ; 757: 143903, 2021 Feb 25.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33316528

RESUMEN

Spring phenology influences terrestrial ecosystem carbon, water and energy exchanges between the biosphere and atmosphere. Accurate prediction of spring phenology is therefore a prerequisite to foresee the impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems. In the present study, we studied the model performance of four widely used process-based models of spring leaf unfolding, including both a one-phase model (not considering a chilling phase: the Thermal Time model) and three two-phase models (all accounting for a required chilling period: the Parallel model, the Sequential model, the Unified model). Models were tested on five deciduous tree species occurring across Europe. We specifically investigated the divergence of their phenology predictions under future climate warming scenarios and studied the differences in the chilling periods. We found that, in general, the two-phase models performed slightly better than the one-phase model when fitting to the observed data, with all two-phase models performing similarly. However, leaf unfolding projections diverged substantially among the two-phase models over the period 2070-2100. Furthermore, we found that the modeled end dates of the chilling periods in these models also diverged, with advances for both the Sequential and Parallel models during the period 2070-2100 (compared to the period 1980-2010), and delays in the Unified model. These findings thus highlight large uncertainty in the two-phase phenology models and confirm that the mechanism underlying the leaf unfolding process is not yet understood. We therefore urgently need an improved understanding of the leaf unfolding process in order to improve the representation of phenology in terrestrial ecosystem models.


Asunto(s)
Ecosistema , Árboles , Cambio Climático , Europa (Continente) , Hojas de la Planta , Estaciones del Año , Temperatura , Incertidumbre
6.
Health Commun ; 36(1): 116-123, 2021 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33191801

RESUMEN

Communication plays a critical role in all stages of a pandemic. From the moment it is officially declared governments and public health organizations aim to inform the public about the risk from the disease and to encourage people to adopt mitigation practices. The purpose of this article is to call attention to the multiple types and the complexity of ethical challenges in COVID-19 communication. Different types of ethical issues in COVID-19 communication are presented in four main sections. The first deals with ethical issues in informing the public about the risk of the pandemic and dilemmas regarding communicating uncertainty, using threats and scare tactics, and framing the pandemic as a war. The second concerns unintended consequences that relate to increasing inequities, stigmatization, ageism, and delaying medical care. The third raises ethical issues in communicating about specific mitigation practices: contact tracing, wearing face masks, spatial (also referred to as social) distancing, and handwashing or sanitizing. The fourth concerns appealing to positive social values associated with solidarity and personal responsibility, and ethical challenges when using these appeals. The article concludes with a list of practical implications and the importance of identifying ethical concerns, which necessitate interdisciplinary knowledge, cross-disciplinary collaborations, public discourse and advocacy.


Asunto(s)
/epidemiología , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Comunicación en Salud/ética , Administración en Salud Pública/ética , Ageísmo/psicología , Asignación de Recursos para la Atención de Salud/ética , Asignación de Recursos para la Atención de Salud/organización & administración , Humanos , Pandemias , Medición de Riesgo , Estereotipo , Incertidumbre
7.
Health Commun ; 36(1): 32-41, 2021 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33256466

RESUMEN

The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak poses a substantial threat to public health. Individual efforts to engage in COVID-19 precautionary behaviors are necessary to flatten the pandemic's curve in the waiting period before a vaccine is developed. This study sought to apply the Theory of Motivated Information Management to investigate the relationships among COVID-19 illness uncertainty, information management, and actual precautionary behaviors, both preparatory and preventative. The results of a national opt-in online panel demonstrate that uncertainty discrepancy, anxiety, and information management strategies are key predictors of the adoption of COVID-19 preparation and prevention behaviors. The results further identify diverging associations across age groups with respect to associations between information management and precautionary behaviors. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.


Asunto(s)
Ansiedad/epidemiología , /prevención & control , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Información de Salud al Consumidor/organización & administración , Incertidumbre , Adaptación Psicológica , Adolescente , Adulto , Factores de Edad , Anciano , Información de Salud al Consumidor/normas , Femenino , Humanos , Conducta en la Búsqueda de Información , Masculino , Salud Mental , Persona de Mediana Edad , Motivación , Pandemias , Medición de Riesgo , Conducta de Reducción del Riesgo , Factores Socioeconómicos , Adulto Joven
8.
Chemosphere ; 263: 128036, 2021 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33297054

RESUMEN

The detection of composition or pollution trends of vast environmental water areas, from a river, lake or sea, requires the determination of the mean concentration of the studied component in the studied area at defined depth in, at least, two occasions. Mean concentration estimates of a large area are robust to system heterogeneity and, if expressed with uncertainty, allow assessing if observed trends are meaningful or can be attributed to the measurement process. Mean concentration values and respective uncertainty are more accurately determined if various samples are collected from the studied area and if samples coordinates are considered. The spatial representation of concentration variation and the subsequent randomization of this model, given coordinates and samples analysis uncertainty, allows an improved characterization of studied area and the optimization of the sampling process. Recently, this evaluation methodology was described and implemented in a user-friendly MS-Excel file. This tool was upgraded to allow determinations close to zero concentration and "bottom-up" uncertainty evaluations of collected samples analysis. Since concentrations cannot be negative, this prior knowledge is merged with the original measurements in a Bayesian uncertainty evaluation that improves studied area description and sampling modelling. The Bayesian assessment avoids the underestimation of concentrations distribution by assuming that negative concentrations are impossible. This tool was successfully applied to the determination of reactive phosphate concentration in a vast ocean area of the Portuguese coast. The new version of the developed tool is made available as Supplementary Material.


Asunto(s)
Ríos , Agua de Mar , Teorema de Bayes , Método de Montecarlo , Incertidumbre
9.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 28(3): 2835-2847, 2021 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32895794

RESUMEN

Global warming has been a pressing issue for the past decade as various economic activities have been flagged and are expected to reduce emissions. While previous studies have examined the energy consumption-emissions-economic growth nexus in significant detail, attention is yet to be given to the role of economic policy uncertainties and human activities such as tourism in a carbon function. Thus, this study aims to investigate the long-run relationship between energy consumption, tourists' arrivals, economic policy uncertainty, and ecological footprint in the top ten earners from international tourism over the period 1995 to 2015. The fully modified ordinary least square and dynamic ordinary least square estimation techniques and the Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality tests were used in the study. Empirical results suggest that economic policy uncertainties in addition to tourism and energy consumption are drivers of environmental degradation. However, the contribution of energy consumption to ecological footprint is significantly moderated by economic policy uncertainties such that a 1% increase in the latter reduces environmental damage by 0.71%. This study suggests that policy uncertainties matter a great deal for energy and environmental policies. Also, green economic growth is possible if the proper implementation of environmental protection policies can restrict the harmful impact of economic activities on the quality of the environment. Based on the empirical findings, vital energy policy recommendations are suggested.


Asunto(s)
Desarrollo Económico , Gases de Efecto Invernadero , Dióxido de Carbono/análisis , Humanos , Turismo , Incertidumbre
10.
J Environ Manage ; 278(Pt 2): 111478, 2021 Jan 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33130403

RESUMEN

The causal pathways of stressors that lead to impacts on individuals, populations, and communities of organisms are useful to know for designing alternatives that manage or remediate ecological risks. The ecological risk assessment (ERA) framework (USEPA, 1998b) can help to identify and prioritize management of risks. One key product of the problem formulation step in an ERA, that captures and represents causal knowledge, is the conceptual site model (CSM). The CSM is a graphical depiction of the risk environment that traces the fate and transport pathways of contaminants from sources of contamination (e.g., a leaking storage tank) to receptors (i.e., the ecological endpoints of concern in the risk assessment). The CSM guides the development of methods for assessing ecological risk scenarios and for remediation design alternatives. The qualitative and quantitative aspects of Bayesian networks may support CSM development and risk characterization. Bayesian networks provide a graphical platform geared toward probabilistic modeling making them important candidates for calculating risks in environmental assessments. The diagrammatic representation of causal Bayesian networks (i.e., the directed acyclic graphs) also adds explanatory depth for developing the evidence-base for risk characterization and remediation interventions. We call these qualitative graphs conceptual Bayesian networks (CBNs). The components of CBNs can be used to represent the variables and relationships between sources of contamination, media transfer, bioaccumulation, and risk. The connections help to compose, piece together, and explore hypothesized relationships that bring about high-risk scenarios. Causal pathway analysis of the CBNs provides visualizations of exposure pathways from initial and intermediate sources to receptors. Remediation options that would interrupt or stop the transport of contaminants to ecological receptors can then be identified. Even if the CBN is not quantified, the structures can support mechanistic and statistical designs for exposure and effects analysis and risk characterization and evaluate information needs for resolving uncertainties. This paper will examine these and other unexplored benefits of CBNs to assessment and management of contaminated sites.


Asunto(s)
Modelos Teóricos , Teorema de Bayes , Humanos , Medición de Riesgo , Incertidumbre , Estados Unidos , United States Environmental Protection Agency
12.
Aten Primaria ; 53(1): 89-101, 2021 Jan.
Artículo en Español | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32747166

RESUMEN

An approach is made to the psychological and psychosocial characteristics that the COVID-19 pandemic is acquiring in the countries of our socio-cultural environment. The scarcity of research in this regard and the necessary acceptance of uncertainty to face the situation, both socially, as well as health and psychological, are discussed. Consequently, a series of reflections and recommendations are proposed for the psychological care of the population, health workers and social organization based on: 1) The existence of psychological and psychosocial research into connected fields and 2) In the new neuroscientific perspectives on emotions and their elaboration in crisis situations.


Asunto(s)
/psicología , Trastornos Mentales/terapia , Servicios de Salud Mental/organización & administración , Salud Mental , Atención Primaria de Salud/métodos , /epidemiología , Política de Salud , Accesibilidad a los Servicios de Salud , Humanos , Trastornos Mentales/etiología , Pandemias , Atención Primaria de Salud/organización & administración , España/epidemiología , Incertidumbre
13.
Ambio ; 50(2): 393-399, 2021 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32885402

RESUMEN

Ecosystems around the world are increasingly exposed to multiple, often interacting human activities, leading to pressures and possibly environmental state changes. Decision support tools (DSTs) can assist environmental managers and policy makers to evaluate the current status of ecosystems (i.e. assessment tools) and the consequences of alternative policies or management scenarios (i.e. planning tools) to make the best possible decision based on prevailing knowledge and uncertainties. However, to be confident in DST outcomes it is imperative that known sources of uncertainty such as sampling and measurement error, model structure, and parameter use are quantified, documented, and addressed throughout the DST set-up, calibration, and validation processes. Here we provide a brief overview of the main sources of uncertainty and methods currently available to quantify uncertainty in DST input and output. We then review 42 existing DSTs that were designed to manage anthropogenic pressures in the Baltic Sea to summarise how and what sources of uncertainties were addressed within planning and assessment tools. Based on our findings, we recommend future DST development to adhere to good modelling practise principles, and to better document and communicate uncertainty among stakeholders.


Asunto(s)
Ecosistema , Solución de Problemas , Países Bálticos , Humanos , Incertidumbre
14.
J Environ Manage ; 278(Pt 1): 111520, 2021 Jan 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33166738

RESUMEN

The risk of a large-scale oil spill remains significant in marine environments as international maritime transport continues to grow. The environmental as well as the socio-economic impacts of a large-scale oil spill could be substantial. Oil spill models and modeling tools for Pollution Preparedness and Response (PPR) can support effective risk management. However, there is a lack of integrated approaches that consider oil spill risks comprehensively, learn from all information sources, and treat the system uncertainties in an explicit manner. Recently, the use of the international ISO 31000:2018 risk management framework has been suggested as a suitable basis for supporting oil spill PPR risk management. Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical models that express uncertainty in a probabilistic form and can thus support decision-making processes when risks are complex and data are scarce. While BNs have increasingly been used for oil spill risk assessment (OSRA) for PPR, no link between the BNs literature and the ISO 31000:2018 framework has previously been made. This study explores how Bayesian risk models can be aligned with the ISO 31000:2018 framework by offering a flexible approach to integrate various sources of probabilistic knowledge. In order to gain insight in the current utilization of BNs for oil spill risk assessment and management (OSRA-BNs) for maritime oil spill preparedness and response, a literature review was performed. The review focused on articles presenting BN models that analyze the occurrence of oil spills, consequence mitigation in terms of offshore and shoreline oil spill response, and impacts of spills on the variables of interest. Based on the results, the study discusses the benefits of applying BNs to the ISO 31000:2018 framework as well as the challenges and further research needs.


Asunto(s)
Arte , Contaminación por Petróleo , Teorema de Bayes , Investigación , Medición de Riesgo , Incertidumbre
15.
Ambio ; 50(1): 229-241, 2021 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32451968

RESUMEN

Uncertain future payoffs and irreversible costs characterize investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Under these conditions, it is relevant to analyze investment decisions in a real options framework, as this approach takes into account the economic value associated with investment time flexibility. In this paper, we provide an overview of the literature adopting a real option approach to analyze investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation, and examine how the uncertain impacts of climate change on the condition of the human environment, risk preferences, and strategic interactions among decisions-makers have been modeled. We found that the complex nature of uncertainties associated with climate change is typically only partially taken into account and that the analysis is usually limited to decisions taken by individual risk neutral profit maximizers. Our findings call for further research to fill the identified gaps.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Investigación , Humanos , Incertidumbre
16.
Environ Pollut ; 268(Pt B): 115948, 2021 Jan 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33187839

RESUMEN

The sustainability performance of the desalination processes has received increasing attention in recent years. In this study, the current progress and future perspective of a life cycle assessment (LCA) of desalination technology in 62 previous studies have been reviewed for the period 2004-2019. It was found that the number of LCA studies related to seawater reverse osmosis has gained popularity compared to other types of desalination technologies. The review emphasized the application of LCA to desalination by means of research objective, scope of study, life stages, and impact assessment. Although previous LCA studies were conducted to assess the environmental performance of the desalination technology, little attention was given to evaluating the impact of other sustainability aspects (i.e., economic and social). The latter part of this study discusses the challenges, feasibility, and recommendations for future LCA studies on desalination technology. The integration of the LCA approach with other approaches allows a comprehensive assessment of the sustainability performance of desalination technology. Thus, the combined approaches should be explored in future studies to gain insight into the sensitivity and uncertainty of the data to make an assessment that can be useful in policy-making.


Asunto(s)
Purificación del Agua , Animales , Estadios del Ciclo de Vida , Agua de Mar , Incertidumbre
17.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33374935

RESUMEN

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant impact on the world of sports due to periods of home quarantine, bans against public gatherings, travel restrictions, and a large number of postponed or canceled major sporting events. The literature hitherto is sparse, but early indications display signs of psychological impact on elite athletes due to the pandemic. However, beyond acute effects from lockdown and short-term interrupted athletic seasons, the postponed and still uncertain Olympic and Paralympic Games may represent a major career insecurity to many athletes world-wide, and may lead to severe changes to everyday lives and potentially prolonged psychological distress. Given the long-term perspective of these changes, researchers and stakeholders should address mental health and long-term job insecurity in athletes, including a specific focus on those with small financial margins, such as many female athletes, parasports athletes, athletes in smaller sports, and athletes from developing countries. Implications and the need for research are discussed.


Asunto(s)
Atletas/psicología , Pandemias , Distrés Psicológico , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Deportes , Incertidumbre
18.
BMC Pulm Med ; 20(1): 319, 2020 Dec 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33298023

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is having profound psychological impacts on populations globally, with increasing levels of stress, anxiety, and depression being reported, especially in people with pre-existing medical conditions who appear to be particularly vulnerable. There are limited data on the specific concerns people have about COVID-19 and what these are based on. METHODS: The aim of this study was to identify and explore the concerns of people with long-term respiratory conditions in the UK regarding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and how these concerns were affecting them. We conducted a thematic analysis of free text responses to the question "What are your main concerns about getting coronavirus?", which was included in the British Lung Foundation/Asthma UK (BLF-AUK) partnership COVID-19 survey, conducted between the 1st and 8th of April 2020. This was during the 3rd week of the UK's initial 'social distancing measures' which included advice to stay at home and only go outside for specific limited reasons. RESULTS: 7039 responses were analysed, with respondents from a wide range of age groups (under 17 to over 80), gender, and all UK nations. Respondents reported having asthma (85%), COPD (9%), bronchiectasis (4%), interstitial lung disease (2%), or 'other' lung diseases (e.g. lung cancer) (1%). Four main themes were identified: (1) vulnerability to COVID-19; (2) anticipated experience of contracting COVID-19; (3) pervasive uncertainty; and (4) inadequate national response. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic is having profound psychological impacts. The concerns we identified largely reflect contextual factors, as well as their subjective experience of the current situation. Hence, key approaches to reducing these concerns require changes to the reality of their situation, and are likely to include (1) helping people optimise their health, limit risk of infection, and access necessities; (2) minimising the negative experience of disease where possible, (3) providing up-to-date, accurate and consistent information, (4) improving the government and healthcare response.


Asunto(s)
Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Distrés Psicológico , Enfermedades Respiratorias , Percepción Social , Incertidumbre , Poblaciones Vulnerables , Actitud Frente a la Salud , /prevención & control , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Comorbilidad , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Salud Mental , Persona de Mediana Edad , Investigación Cualitativa , Enfermedades Respiratorias/clasificación , Enfermedades Respiratorias/epidemiología , Enfermedades Respiratorias/psicología , Reino Unido/epidemiología , Poblaciones Vulnerables/psicología , Poblaciones Vulnerables/estadística & datos numéricos
19.
Front Public Health ; 8: 615344, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33330348

RESUMEN

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected various macroeconomic indicators. Given this backdrop, this research investigates the effects of the pandemics-related uncertainty on household consumption. For this purpose, we construct a simple theoretical model to study the effects of the pandemics-related uncertainty on household consumption. To estimate the theoretical model, we consider the panel dataset of 138 countries for the period from 1996 to 2017. We also use the Pandemic Uncertainty Index to measure the pandemics-related uncertainty. The theoretical model and the empirical findings from the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) estimations indicate that the gross fixed capital formation, government consumption, balance of trade, and the Pandemic Uncertainty Index negatively affect household consumption. The results are also valid in the panel dataset of 42 high-income economies and the remaining 96 emerging economies.


Asunto(s)
/economía , Composición Familiar , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Pandemias/economía , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Incertidumbre , Humanos , Modelos Econométricos
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