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1.
J Environ Manage ; 301: 113751, 2022 Jan 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34628283

RESUMEN

Heat-related mortality is one of the leading causes of weather-related deaths in the United States. With changing climates and an aging population, effective adaptive strategies to address public health and environmental justice issues associated with extreme heat will be increasingly important. One effective adaptive strategy for reducing heat-related mortality is increasing tree cover. Designing such a strategy requires decision-support tools that provide spatial and temporal information about impacts. We apply such a tool to estimate spatially and temporally explicit reductions in temperature and mortality associated with a 10% increase in tree cover in 10 U.S. cities with varying climatic, demographic, and land cover conditions. Two heat metrics were applied to represent tree impacts on moderately and extremely hot days (relative to historical conditions). Increasing tree cover by 10% reduced estimated heat-related mortality in cities significantly, with total impacts generally greatest in the most populated cities. Mortality reductions vary widely across cities, ranging from approximately 50 fewer deaths in Salt Lake City to about 3800 fewer deaths in New York City. This variation is due to differences in demographics, land cover, and local climatic conditions. In terms of per capita estimated impacts, hotter and drier cities experience higher percentage reductions in mortality due to increased tree cover across the season. Phoenix potentially benefits the most from increased tree cover, with an estimated 22% reduction in mortality from baseline levels. In cooler cities such as Minneapolis, trees can reduce mortality significantly on days that are extremely hot relative to historical conditions and therefore help mitigate impacts during heat wave conditions. Recent studies project highest increases in heat-related mortality in the cooler cities, so our findings have important implications for adaptation planning. Our estimated spatial and temporal distributions of mortality reductions for each city provide crucial information needed for promoting environmental justice and equity. More broadly, the methods and model can be applied by both urban planners and the public health community for designing targeted, effective policies to reduce heat-related mortality. Additionally, land use managers can use this information to optimize tree plantings. Public stakeholders can also use these impact estimates for advocacy.


Asunto(s)
Calor , Árboles , Ciudades , Mortalidad , Salud Pública , Estaciones del Año , Estados Unidos
2.
Appl Ergon ; 98: 103608, 2022 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34655965

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Failure to rescue (FTR) denotes mortality from post-operative complications after surgery with curative intent. High-volume, low-mortality units have similar complication rates to others, but have lower FTR rates. Effective response to the deteriorating post-operative patient is therefore critical to reducing surgical mortality. Resilience Engineering might afford a useful perspective for studying how the management of deterioration usually succeeds and how resilience can be strengthened. METHODS: We studied the response to the deteriorating patient following emergency abdominal surgery in a large surgical emergency unit, using the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM). FRAM focuses on the conflicts and trade-offs inherent in the process of response, and how staff adapt to them, rather than on identifying and eliminating error. 31 semi-structured interviews and two workshops were used to construct a model of the response system from which conclusions could be drawn about possible ways to strengthen system resilience. RESULTS: The model identified 23 functions, grouped into five clusters, and their respective variability. The FRAM analysis highlighted trade-offs and conflicts which affected decisions over timing, as well as strategies used by staff to cope with these underlying tensions. Suggestions for improving system resilience centred on improving team communication, organisational learning and relationships, rather than identifying and fixing specific system faults. CONCLUSION: FRAM can be used for analysing surgical work systems in order to identify recommendations focused on strengthening organisational resilience. Its potential value should be explored by empirical evaluation of its use in systems improvement.


Asunto(s)
Mortalidad , Complicaciones Posoperatorias , Humanos
3.
Chemosphere ; 286(Pt 1): 131615, 2022 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34303049

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Systematic evaluations of the cumulative effects and mortality displacement of ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution on deaths are lacking. We aimed to discern the cumulative effect profile of PM exposure, and investigate the presence of mortality displacement in a large-scale population. METHODS: We conducted a time-series analysis with different exposure-lag models on 13 cities in Jiangsu, China, to estimate the effects of PM pollution on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality (2015-2019). Over-dispersed Poisson generalized additive models were integrated with distributed lag models to estimate cumulative exposure effects, and assess mortality displacement. RESULTS: Pooled cumulative effect estimates with lags of 0-7 and 0-14 days were substantially larger than those with single-day and 2-day moving average lags. For each 10 µg/m3 increment in PM2.5 concentration with a cumulative lag of 0-7 days, we estimated an increase of 0.50 % (95 % CI: 0.29, 0.72), 0.63 % (95 % CI: 0.38, 0.88), and 0.50 % (95 % CI: 0.01, 1.01) in pooled estimates of non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Both PM10 and PM2.5 were associated with significant increases in non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality with a cumulative lag of 0-14 days. We observed mortality displacement within 30 days for non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that risk assessment based on single-day or 2-day moving average lag structures may underestimate the adverse effects of PM pollution. The cumulative effects of PM exposure on non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality can last up to 14 days. Evidence of mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths was found.


Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/toxicidad , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/estadística & datos numéricos , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , China/epidemiología , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Mortalidad , Material Particulado/análisis , Material Particulado/toxicidad
4.
Infectio ; 25(4): 262-269, oct.-dic. 2021. tab, graf
Artículo en Inglés | LILACS, COLNAL | ID: biblio-1286720

RESUMEN

Abstract Objective: To analyse the clinic characteristics, risk factors and evolution of the first cohort of hospitalised patients with confirmed infection by COVID-19 in 5 Colombian institutions. Materials and methods: Is a retrospective observational study of consecutive hospitalized patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 confirmed from March 01 to May 30, 2020 in Colombia. Results: A total of 44 patients were included. The median age was 62 years. 43.2% had a history of smoking, while 69.8% were overweight or obese. 88.6% had at least one comorbidity and 52.3% had three or more comorbidities. Hypertension and dyslipidaemia were the most frequent comorbidities (40.9% and 34.1%, respectively). The 30-day mortality rate was 47.7% with a median of 11 days. The composite outcome occurred in the 36.4%. The biomarkers associated with mor tality risk included troponin higher than 14 ng/L (RR: 5.25; 95% CI 1.37-20.1, p = 0.004) and D-dimer higher than 1000 ng/ml (RR: 3.0; 95% CI 1.4-6.3, p = 0.008). Conclusions: The clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospitalized Colombian was characterised by a more advanced stage of the infection.


Resumen Objetivo: Analizar las características, clínicas, factores de riesgo, y la evolución de pacientes hospitalizados con infección confirmada por COVID-19 en 5 Institu ciones de Colombia. Material y método: Es un estudio observacional retrospectivo de pacientes consecutivos hospitalizados con diagnóstico de COVID-19 confirmado entre 01 de Febrero de 2020 y 30 de Mayo de 2020 en Colombia. Resultados: Un total de 44 pacientes fueron incluidos. La mediana de edad fue de 62 años y la mayoría del sexo masculino. El 43.2% tenían historia de tabaquismo, mientras que el 69.8% tenían sobrepeso u obesidad. El 88.6% tenían al menos una comorbilidad y el 52.3% tenían tres o más comorbilidades. La hipertensión arterial fue la comorbilidad más frecuente (40.9%), seguido de la dislipidemia (34.1%). La tasa de letalidad a 30 días fue de 47.7% y ocurrió con una mediana de 11 días. El 36.4% presentó el desenlace compuesto. Los biomarcadores asociados con el riesgo de muerte fue troponina > 14 ng/mL (RR:5.25, IC95% 1.37-20.1, p=0.004) y dímero D mayor a 1000 mg/dL (RR: 3.0, IC95% 1.4-6.3, p=0.008). Conclusiones: El curso clínico de la infección por SARS-CoV-2 en colombianos hospitalizados fue un estadio más avanzado de la infección.


Asunto(s)
Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Biomarcadores , COVID-19 , Pacientes , Tabaquismo , Comorbilidad , Riesgo , Factores de Riesgo , Mortalidad , Colombia , Sobrepeso , Cursos , Infecciones , Obesidad
5.
Infectio ; 25(4): 212-240, oct.-dic. 2021. tab, graf
Artículo en Inglés | LILACS, COLNAL | ID: biblio-1286716

RESUMEN

Abstract Intra-abdominal infections are frequent at all levels of health care, therefore, it is necessary to maintain a high level of clinical suspicion, performing the fastest and most cost-effective measures to confirm the diagnosis and offer a precise and targeted multidisciplinary therapy, this being the only way to have an impact on the morbidity of this infection, reducing mortality and minimizing the complications and costs of health care. Intra-abdominal infections are linked to the appearance and selection of resistant mutants in both bacteria and fungi, becoming currently a major public health problem. Increasing bacterial resistance when associated with a greater possibility of difficulties in antimicrobial treatment increases mortality. This evidence-based consensus brings together the recommendations for the diagnosis and treatment of intra-abdominal infections in the pediatric and adult population. With strict monitoring of bacterial resistance and stimulating the control of the risk factors that have the greatest impact on the appearance of this phenomenon, this consensus is intended to be a practical guide that is easy to implement, and with periodic updates it will favor and facilitate multidisciplinary and the adequacy of the therapeutic management of intra-abdominal infections.


Resumen Las infecciones intrabdominales son frecuentes en todos los niveles de atención en salud, por ende, es necesario mantener un alto nivel de sospecha clínica, realizando las medidas más rápidas y costoefectivas para confirmar el diagnóstico y así ofrecer de una forma precisa y dirigida la terapéutica multidisciplinaria, siendo esta la única manera de tener impacto en la morbilidad de esta infección, disminuyendo la mortalidad y minimizando las complicaciones y los costos de la atención en salud. Las infecciones intrabdominales se encuentran ligadas a la aparición y selección de las mutantes resistentes tanto en las bacterias como en los hongos, convirtiéndose en la actualidad en una gran problemática en la salud pública. La creciente resistencia bacteriana al asociarse a mayor posibilidad de dificultades en el tratamiento antimicrobiano incrementa la mortalidad. Este consenso basado en la evidencia, reúne las recomendaciones en el diagnóstico y en el tratamiento de las infecciones intrabdominales en la población pediátrica y de adultos. Con un estricto seguimiento de la resistencia bacteriana y estimulando el control de los factores de riesgo que tienen mas impacto en la aparición de este fenómeno, este consenso pretende ser una practica guía de fácil implementación, y con periódicas actualizaciones favorecerá y facilitará el manejo multidisciplinario y la adecuación del manejo terapéutico de las infecciones intrabdominales.


Asunto(s)
Humanos , Niño , Adulto , Infecciones Intraabdominales , Peritonitis , Bacterias , Factores de Riesgo , Mortalidad , Colombia , Sepsis , Atención a la Salud , Infecciones , Antibacterianos
6.
Infectio ; 25(4): 207-211, oct.-dic. 2021. tab, graf
Artículo en Español | LILACS, COLNAL | ID: biblio-1286715

RESUMEN

Resumen Objetivo: Describir la proporción, características clínicas, demográficas y programáticas de casos fatales de coinfección TB/VIH de Cali-Colombia, en 2017. Material y Método: Estudio de corte transversal, con información de las bases de datos del programa de tuberculosis, las historias clínicas y unidades de análisis de mortalidad disponibles. Resultados: Se depuraron 257 casos fatales por TB, el 24,5% (63/257) falleció con coinfección TB/VIH. La mediana de edad fue 43 años (Rango Intercuartílico: 30-52), 73% (46/63) eran hombres, 76,2% (48/63) no pertenecían al régimen contributivo, 28,6% eran habitantes de calle. 81,2% (39/48) eran casos nuevos de TB, 76,6% (37/47), inició tratamiento; al 74,6% (47/63) se les realizó unidad de análisis de mortalidad. La presentación pulmonar fue frecuente (75,9%-44/58), en 60% de los registros se observó desnutrición (Índice de Masa Corporal <20), en 39,7% (25/63) dependencia al alcohol, tabaco o farmacodependencia. Conclusiones: La mortalidad asociada a TB/VIH es prevenible, pero en 2017 representó la cuarta parte de la mortalidad por TB en Cali. Hombres adultos con condiciones de vulnerabilidad social, diagnosticados en estados avanzados de enfermedad, fueron blanco de fatalidad. Mejorar los sistemas de información e integrar los programas de TB/VIH, deben ser estrategias prioritarias para la salud pública en Colombia.


Abstract Objective: To describe the proportion, clinical, demographic and programmatic characteristics of fatal cases of TB/HIV coinfection from Cali-Colombia, in 2017. Material and Method: Cross-sectional study, with information from the TB program databases, clinical records and mortality analysis units available. Results: 257 TB fatal cases were cleared in Cali in 2017, 24.5% (63/257) of these died with TB/HIV coinfection. The median age was 43 years (Interquartile Range: 30-52), 73% (46/63) were men, 76.2% (48/63) did not belong to the contributory health regimen, 28.6% were homeless. 81.2% (39/48) were new TB cases, 76.6% (37/47) started treatment; 74.6% (47/63) had mortality analysis register. Pulmonary presentation was frequent (75.9% -44 / 58), in 60% of the registries malnutrition was observed (Body Mass Index <20), in 39.7% (25/63), dependence on alcohol, tobacco or drug dependence was registered. Conclusions: Mortality associated with TB/HIV is preventable, but in 2017 it represented a quarter of the TB mortality in Cali. Adult men with conditions of social vulnerability, diagnosed in advanced stages of disease, were fatally targeted. Improving information systems and integrating TB/HIV programs should be priority strategies for public health in Colombia.


Asunto(s)
Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , Tuberculosis , VIH , Índice de Masa Corporal , Infecciones por VIH , Salud Pública , Estudios Transversales , Mortalidad , Estrategias de Salud , Colombia , Vulnerabilidad Social , Desnutrición
7.
Ann Palliat Med ; 10(10): 11035-11052, 2021 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34763466

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Fundamental transformations in overall population health have occurred in the past five decades and are continuing. Our aim in this study was to characterize the trends in population mortality rates in the United States (U.S.) from 1969 to 2017. METHODS: Data on the 109,836,044 deaths registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were analyzed by sex, race and ethnicity, and age. Temporal trends in population mortality rates were examined from 1969 to 2017. All data analyses were performed using the SEER*Stat software. RESULTS: The overall mortality rate for males and females in the U.S. per 100,000 population fell by 46.1% and 39.3%, from 1,610.0 and 1,019.3 in 1969 to 867.2 and 619.2 in 2017, respectively. This decline in overall mortality was mainly attributable to a decrease in mortality caused by heart and cerebrovascular diseases. From 1969 to 2017, the overall mortality rate was higher in males than females, and in blacks than whites for both sexes. From 1979 to 2017, the mortality rates of heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and diabetes were all higher in blacks than in whites for both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that the U.S. has dramatically reduced its overall annual mortality rate between 1969 and 2017; however, the disparities among different races are still apparent.


Asunto(s)
Grupo de Ascendencia Continental Europea , Cardiopatías , Bases de Datos Factuales , Grupos Étnicos , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Mortalidad , Estados Unidos/epidemiología
8.
Washington, D.C.; PAHO; 2021-11-16.
No convencional en Inglés | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr-55194

RESUMEN

This regional report on the situation of tuberculosis (TB) in the Americas contains information from 2019, provided by the countries of the Region through the World Health Organization TB data collection system. These data have been consolidated and analyzed at the regional level. In addition to presenting the epidemiological and programmatic situation of TB in the Americas, the report aims to raise awareness and to motivate and encourage all stakeholders in the prevention and control of this disease, to accelerate efforts towards TB elimination in the Region, and to achieve the targets of the End TB Strategy. The report records the Region's achievements, but also the gaps in the work being carried out in diagnosis, treatment, comorbidities, vulnerable populations, risk factors, and funding, among other issues. Based on the information presented, specific recommendations are provided for further progress.


Asunto(s)
Tuberculosis , Epidemiología , Mortalidad , VIH , Poblaciones Vulnerables , Pueblos Indígenas , Salud de Poblaciones Indígenas , Factores de Riesgo , Adolescente , Salud del Adolescente , Niño , Salud del Niño , Américas
9.
Washington, D.C.; OPAS; 2021-11-10. (OPAS/NMH/MH/21-0038).
en Portugués | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr-55140

RESUMEN

Esta ficha apresenta fatos sobre a epidemiologia do álcool divididos por população total, entre os bebedores e entre homens e mulheres na Região das Américas. Ela inclui estatísticas relacionadas ao uso de álcool, morbidade e mortalidade. A ficha informativa prossegue para destacar o indicador de consumo per capita de álcool e fornece informações ao público sobre o que este indicador nos diz em termos de bebidas consumidas por ano e por dia. Ela conclui com algumas recomendações e inclui um pequeno elenco de referências utilizadas para desenvolver o conteúdo.


Asunto(s)
Bebidas Alcohólicas , Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas , Industria del Alcohol , Análisis de Datos , Epidemiología Analítica , Factores Socioeconómicos , Estadística , Factores de Riesgo , Mortalidad , Morbilidad
10.
Washington, D.C.; PAHO; 2021-11-10. (PAHONMHMH21-0038).
en Inglés | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr-55139

RESUMEN

This fact sheet presents facts about alcohol epidemiology broken down by total population, among drinkers, and between males and females in the Region of the Americas. It includes statistics related to alcohol use, morbidity, and mortality. The fact sheet goes on to highlight the indicator alcohol per capita consumption, and provides information to the public about what this indicator tells us in terms of drinks consumed per year and per day. It concludes with some recommendations and includes a short list of references used to develop the content.


Asunto(s)
Bebidas Alcohólicas , Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas , Industria del Alcohol , Estadística , Morbilidad , Mortalidad , Indicadores de Morbimortalidad , Epidemiología Analítica , Factores de Riesgo , Factores Socioeconómicos , Análisis de Datos , Américas
11.
Washington, D.C.; OPS; 2021-11-10. (OPS/NMH/MH/21-0037).
en Español | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr-55136

RESUMEN

Esta hoja informativa presenta datos sobre la epidemiología del alcohol desglosados por población total, según consumo per cápita y sexo en la Región de las Américas. Incluye estadísticas relacionadas con el consumo de alcohol, la morbilidad y la mortalidad; así como el indicador de consumo de alcohol per cápita, con información sobre las bebidas consumidas por año y por día. Concluye con algunas recomendaciones e incorpora una breve lista de referencias utilizadas para elaborar el contenido.


Asunto(s)
Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas , Factores de Riesgo , Factores Socioeconómicos , Epidemiología Analítica , Análisis de Datos , Américas , Bebidas Alcohólicas , Estadística , Mortalidad , Morbilidad , Industria del Alcohol
12.
Rev Saude Publica ; 55: 61, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés, Español | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34730747

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the behavior of mortality from diabetes mellitus (DM) for both sexes in Mexico from 1998 to 2018, and its impact on life expectancy (LE) from 60 to 85 years of age in the three-year periods 1998-2000 and 2016-2018, compared with other causes of death, as well as to determine the loss of years of life expectancy associated with DM in each three-year period. METHODS: The current study is observational and descriptive. Age-adjusted rates of mortality from DM were calculated for each sex from 1998 to 2018. Sex-specific life tables were constructed for 1998-2000 and 2016-2018, and both LE between 60 and 85 years, and years of life expectancy lost (YLELL) due to DM and selected causes between both ages were calculated. RESULTS: Between 1998 and 2018, the adjusted DM-resulting male mortality rate grew 55% in the population aged 60 and over, while the female mortality rate grew 20%. Between 1998-2000 and 2016-2018, male LE for 60-85 age group decreased 0.22 years, while female LE increased 0.24. In 2016-2018, DM was responsible for 1.30 YLEL among men of 60 to 85 years (19% of the total YLEL), and 1.24 YLEL for women (24% of the total), more than the other causes analyzed. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in mortality from DM has substantially contributed both to reduce LE of older adult men, and to slow the increase of LE among women aged 60 years and older so far this century. Thus, preventive policies should be implemented since early ages to reduce the high levels of overweight and obesity in the country and, therefore, the significant population ratio suffering from DM.


Asunto(s)
Diabetes Mellitus , Esperanza de Vida , Anciano , Brasil , Causas de Muerte , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Masculino , México/epidemiología , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mortalidad , Sobrepeso
13.
Crit Care ; 25(1): 382, 2021 11 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34749756

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: There are few reports of new functional impairment following critical illness from COVID-19. We aimed to describe the incidence of death or new disability, functional impairment and changes in health-related quality of life of patients after COVID-19 critical illness at 6 months. METHODS: In a nationally representative, multicenter, prospective cohort study of COVID-19 critical illness, we determined the prevalence of death or new disability at 6 months, the primary outcome. We measured mortality, new disability and return to work with changes in the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 12L (WHODAS) and health status with the EQ5D-5LTM. RESULTS: Of 274 eligible patients, 212 were enrolled from 30 hospitals. The median age was 61 (51-70) years, and 124 (58.5%) patients were male. At 6 months, 43/160 (26.9%) patients died and 42/108 (38.9%) responding survivors reported new disability. Compared to pre-illness, the WHODAS percentage score worsened (mean difference (MD), 10.40% [95% CI 7.06-13.77]; p < 0.001). Thirteen (11.4%) survivors had not returned to work due to poor health. There was a decrease in the EQ-5D-5LTM utility score (MD, - 0.19 [- 0.28 to - 0.10]; p < 0.001). At 6 months, 82 of 115 (71.3%) patients reported persistent symptoms. The independent predictors of death or new disability were higher severity of illness and increased frailty. CONCLUSIONS: At six months after COVID-19 critical illness, death and new disability was substantial. Over a third of survivors had new disability, which was widespread across all areas of functioning. Clinical trial registration NCT04401254 May 26, 2020.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , Enfermedad Crítica/epidemiología , Personas con Discapacidad , Recuperación de la Función/fisiología , Reinserción al Trabajo/tendencias , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Australia/epidemiología , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/terapia , Estudios de Cohortes , Enfermedad Crítica/terapia , Femenino , Estudios de Seguimiento , Estado de Salud , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mortalidad/tendencias , Estudios Prospectivos , Factores de Tiempo , Resultado del Tratamiento
14.
BMJ Open ; 11(11): e050361, 2021 11 16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34785551

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: Cause-of-death discrepancies are common in respiratory illness-related mortality. A standard epidemiological metric, excess all-cause death, is unaffected by these discrepancies but provides no actionable policy information when increased all-cause mortality is unexplained by reported specific causes. To assess the contribution of unexplained mortality to the excess death metric, we parsed excess deaths in the COVID-19 pandemic into changes in explained versus unexplained (unreported or unspecified) causes. DESIGN: Retrospective repeated cross-sectional analysis, US death certificate data for six influenza seasons beginning October 2014, comparing population-adjusted historical benchmarks from the previous two, three and five seasons with 2019-2020. SETTING: 48 of 50 states with complete data. PARTICIPANTS: 16.3 million deaths in 312 weeks, reported in categories-all causes, top eight natural causes and respiratory causes including COVID-19. OUTCOME MEASURES: Change in population-adjusted counts of deaths from seasonal benchmarks to 2019-2020, from all causes (ie, total excess deaths) and from explained versus unexplained causes, reported for the season overall and for time periods defined a priori: pandemic awareness (19 January through 28 March); initial pandemic peak (29 March through 30 May) and pandemic post-peak (31 May through 26 September). RESULTS: Depending on seasonal benchmark, 287 957-306 267 excess deaths occurred through September 2020: 179 903 (58.7%-62.5%) attributed to COVID-19; 44 022-49 311 (15.2%-16.1%) to other reported causes; 64 032-77 054 (22.2%-25.2%) unexplained (unspecified or unreported cause). Unexplained deaths constituted 65.2%-72.5% of excess deaths from 19 January to 28 March and 14.1%-16.1% from 29 March through 30 May. CONCLUSIONS: Unexplained mortality contributed substantially to US pandemic period excess deaths. Onset of unexplained mortality in February 2020 coincided with previously reported increases in psychotropic use, suggesting possible psychiatric or injurious causes. Because underlying causes of unexplained deaths may vary by group or region, results suggest excess death calculations provide limited actionable information, supporting previous calls for improved cause-of-death data to support evidence-based policy.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Causas de Muerte , Estudios Transversales , Certificado de Defunción , Humanos , Mortalidad , Estudios Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2
15.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 70(46): 1613-1616, 2021 Nov 19.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34793414

RESUMEN

Surges in COVID-19 cases have stressed hospital systems, negatively affected health care and public health infrastructures, and degraded national critical functions (1,2). Resource limitations, such as available hospital space, staffing, and supplies led some facilities to adopt crisis standards of care, the most extreme operating condition for hospitals, in which the focus of medical decision-making shifted from achieving the best outcomes for individual patients to addressing the immediate care needs of larger groups of patients (3). When hospitals deviated from conventional standards of care, many preventive and elective procedures were suspended, leading to the progression of serious conditions among some persons who would have benefitted from earlier diagnosis and intervention (4). During March-May 2020, U.S. emergency department visits declined by 23% for heart attacks, 20% for strokes, and 10% for diabetic emergencies (5). The Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) COVID Task Force* examined the relationship between hospital strain and excess deaths during July 4, 2020-July 10, 2021, to assess the impact of COVID-19 surges on hospital system operations and potential effects on other critical infrastructure sectors and national critical functions. The study period included the months during which the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant became predominant in the United States.† The negative binomial regression model used to calculate estimated deaths predicted that, if intensive care unit (ICU) bed use nationwide reached 75% capacity an estimated 12,000 additional excess deaths would occur nationally over the next 2 weeks. As hospitals exceed 100% ICU bed capacity, 80,000 excess deaths would be expected in the following 2 weeks. This analysis indicates the importance of controlling case growth and subsequent hospitalizations before severe strain. State, local, tribal, and territorial leaders could evaluate ways to reduce strain on public health and health care infrastructures, including implementing interventions to reduce overall disease prevalence such as vaccination and other prevention strategies, as well as ways to expand or enhance capacity during times of high disease prevalence.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , Hospitales/estadística & datos numéricos , Mortalidad/tendencias , Pandemias , Adulto , Ocupación de Camas/estadística & datos numéricos , COVID-19/mortalidad , COVID-19/terapia , Humanos , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos/estadística & datos numéricos , Estados Unidos/epidemiología
16.
Int J Public Health ; 66: 604449, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34744572

RESUMEN

Objectives: This study was designed to explore prevalence and correlates of self-reported loneliness and to investigate whether loneliness predicts mortality among older adults (aged 65 or above) in Latin America, China and India. Methods: The study investigated population-based cross-sectional (2003-2007) and longitudinal surveys (follow-up 2007-2010) from the 10/66 Dementia Research Group project. Poisson regression and Cox regression analyses were conducted to analyse correlates of loneliness and its association with mortality. Results: The standardised prevalence of loneliness varied between 25.3 and 32.4% in Latin America and was 18.3% in India. China showed a low prevalence of loneliness (3.8%). In pooled meta-analyses, there was robust evidence to support an association between loneliness and mortality across Latin American countries (HR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.01-1.26, I2 = 10.1%) and China (HR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.03-2.41), but there were no associations in India. Conclusion: Our findings suggest potential cultural variances may exist in the concept of loneliness in older age. The effect of loneliness upon mortality is consistent across different cultural settings excluding India. Loneliness should therefore be considered as a potential dimension of public health among older populations.


Asunto(s)
Soledad , Mortalidad , Anciano , China/epidemiología , Estudios Transversales , Humanos , India/epidemiología , América Latina/epidemiología , Mortalidad/tendencias , Prevalencia , Factores de Riesgo
18.
Cien Saude Colet ; 26(suppl 3): 5201-5214, 2021.
Artículo en Español | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34787211

RESUMEN

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of death in the world, and they are considered a serious public health problem in Colombia. The main goal of this study was to analyze CVD mortality spatially and temporarily in the Pacific region of Colombia during the 2002-2015 period, and its association with some municipal socio-economic indicators using spatial statistical analysis techniques. It involved a descriptive-ecological study in the 177 municipalities of the Pacific region that used CVD mortality data, under codes I00-I99 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10), and seven municipal socio-economic indicators. The analysis included the calculation of crude and standardized mortality rates, according to sex, for CVD and its main causes, and modeling of CVD death counts using Bayesian hierarchical models. During the 2002-2015 period, standardized rates of CVD mortality showed a downward trend in men (129.0 to 119.3) and in women (129.0 to 110.0), the main causes of death being ischemic heart diseases, followed by cerebrovascular diseases. In general, the risk of CVD mortality was higher in the less economically and socially privileged municipalities.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Teorema de Bayes , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , Ciudades , Colombia/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Mortalidad , Factores Socioeconómicos
19.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 21650, 2021 11 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34737362

RESUMEN

The SARS-CoV2 has now spread worldwide causing over four million deaths. Testing strategies are highly variable between countries and their impact on mortality is a major issue. Retrospective multicenter study with a prospective database on all inpatients throughout mainland France. Using fixed effects models, we exploit policy discontinuities at region borders in France to estimate the effect of testing on the case fatality rate. In France, testing policies are determined at a regional level, generating exogenous variation in testing rates between departments on each side of a region border. We compared all contiguous department pairs located on the opposite sides of a region border. The increase of one percentage point in the test rate is associated with a decrease of 0.0015 percentage point in the death rate, that is, for each additional 2000 tests, we could observe three fewer deaths. Our study suggests that COVID-19 population testing could have a significant impact on the mortality rate which should be considered in decision-making. As concern grows over the current second wave of COVID-19, our findings support the implementation of large-scale screening strategies in such epidemic contexts.


Asunto(s)
Prueba de COVID-19/tendencias , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/mortalidad , Francia/epidemiología , Humanos , Tamizaje Masivo/métodos , Tamizaje Masivo/tendencias , Mortalidad/tendencias , Estudios Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidad
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