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Biochemistry (Mosc) ; 89(2): 341-355, 2024 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38622100


The most important manifestation of aging is an increased risk of death with advancing age, a mortality pattern characterized by empirical regularities known as mortality laws. We highlight three significant ones: the Gompertz law, compensation effect of mortality (CEM), and late-life mortality deceleration and describe new developments in this area. It is predicted that CEM should result in declining relative variability of mortality at older ages. The quiescent phase hypothesis of negligible actuarial aging at younger adult ages is tested and refuted by analyzing mortality of the most recent birth cohorts. To comprehend the aging mechanisms, it is crucial to explain the observed empirical mortality patterns. As an illustrative example of data-directed modeling and the insights it provides, we briefly describe two different reliability models applied to human mortality patterns. The explanation of aging using a reliability theory approach aligns with evolutionary theories of aging, including idea of chronic phenoptosis. This alignment stems from their focus on elucidating the process of organismal deterioration itself, rather than addressing the reasons why organisms are not designed for perpetual existence. This article is a part of a special issue of the journal that commemorates the legacy of the eminent Russian scientist Vladimir Petrovich Skulachev (1935-2023) and his bold ideas about evolution of biological aging and phenoptosis.

Envejecimiento , Longevidad , Adulto , Humanos , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , División Celular , Mortalidad
Int J Epidemiol ; 53(3)2024 Apr 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38622491


BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has been extensively studied for its impact on mortality, particularly in older age groups. However, the pandemic effects on stillbirths and mortality rates in neonates, infants, children and youth remain poorly understood. This study comprehensively analyses the pandemic influence on young mortality and stillbirths across 112 countries and territories in 2020 and 104 in 2021. METHODS: Using data from civil registers and vital statistics systems (CRVS) and the Health Management Information System (HMIS), we estimate expected mortality levels in a non-pandemic setting and relative mortality changes (p-scores) through generalized linear models. The analysis focuses on the distribution of country-specific mortality changes and the proportion of countries experiencing deficits, no changes and excess mortality in each age group. RESULTS: Results show that stillbirths and under-25 mortality were as expected in most countries during 2020 and 2021. However, among countries with changes, more experienced deficits than excess mortality, except for stillbirths, neonates and those aged 10-24 in 2021, where, despite the predominance of no changes, excess mortality prevailed. Notably, a fifth of examined countries saw increases in stillbirths and a quarter in young adult mortality (20-24) in 2021. Our findings are highly consistent between females and males and similar across income levels. CONCLUSION: Despite global disruptions to essential services, stillbirths and youth mortality were as expected in most observed countries, challenging initial hypotheses. However, the study suggests the possibility of delayed adverse effects that require more time to manifest at the population level. Understanding the lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic requires ongoing, long-term monitoring of health and deaths among children and youth, particularly in low- and lower-middle-income countries.

COVID-19 , Mortinato , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Niño , Masculino , Embarazo , Femenino , Adulto Joven , Humanos , Adolescente , Anciano , Mortinato/epidemiología , Pandemias , COVID-19/epidemiología , Salud Global , Mortalidad
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 8240, 2024 04 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38589527


Accurate mortality data are critical for understanding the impact of COVID-19 and learning lessons from crisis responses. But published statistics risk misrepresenting deaths due to limited testing, underreporting, and lack of subnational data, especially in developing countries. Thailand experienced four COVID-19 waves between January 2020 and December 2021, and used a color-coded, province-level system for lockdowns. To account for deaths directly and indirectly caused by COVID-19, this paper uses mixed effects modelling to estimate counterfactual deaths for 2020-2021 and construct a monthly time series of provincial excess mortality. A fixed effects negative binomial and mixed effects Poisson model both substantiate other studies' estimates of excess deaths using subnational data for the first time. Then, panel regression methods are used to characterize the correlations among restrictions, mobility, and excess mortality. The regressions show that mobility reductions modestly curbed mortality immediately upon imposition, suggesting that aversion of non-COVID deaths was a major aspect of the lockdowns' effect in Thailand. However, the estimates are imprecise. An auto-regressive distributed lag model suggests that the effect of lockdowns was through reduced mobility, but the effectiveness appears to have varied over the course of the pandemic.

COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , Tailandia/epidemiología , Afecto , Aprendizaje , Mortalidad
Environ Sci Technol ; 58(14): 6226-6235, 2024 Apr 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38557021


The updated climate models provide projections at a fine scale, allowing us to estimate health risks due to future warming after accounting for spatial heterogeneity. Here, we utilized an ensemble of high-resolution (25 km) climate simulations and nationwide mortality data from 306 Chinese cities to estimate death anomalies attributable to future warming. Historical estimation (1986-2014) reveals that about 15.5% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI):13.1%, 17.6%] of deaths are attributable to nonoptimal temperature, of which heat and cold corresponded to attributable fractions of 4.1% (eCI:2.4%, 5.5%) and 11.4% (eCI:10.7%, 12.1%), respectively. Under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), the national average temperature was projected to increase by 1.45, 2.57, and 4.98 °C by the 2090s, respectively. The corresponding mortality fractions attributable to heat would be 6.5% (eCI:5.2%, 7.7%), 7.9% (eCI:6.3%, 9.4%), and 11.4% (eCI:9.2%, 13.3%). More than half of the attributable deaths due to future warming would occur in north China and cardiovascular mortality would increase more drastically than respiratory mortality. Our study shows that the increased heat-attributable mortality burden would outweigh the decreased cold-attributable burden even under a moderate climate change scenario across China. The results are helpful for national or local policymakers to better address the challenges of future warming.

Frío , Calor , Temperatura , Ciudades , China/epidemiología , Cambio Climático , Mortalidad
J Prev Med Public Health ; 57(2): 185-196, 2024 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38576202


OBJECTIVES: Excess mortality associated with long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been documented. However, research on the disease burden following short-term exposure is scarce. We investigated the cause-specific mortality burden of short-term exposure to PM2.5 by considering the potential non-linear concentration-response relationship in Korea. METHODS: Daily cause-specific mortality rates and PM2.5 exposure levels from 2010 to 2019 were collected for 8 Korean cities and 9 provinces. A generalized additive mixed model was employed to estimate the non-linear relationship between PM2.5 exposure and cause-specific mortality levels. We assumed no detrimental health effects of PM2.5 concentrations below 15 µg/m3. Overall deaths attributable to short-term PM2.5 exposure were estimated by summing the daily numbers of excess deaths associated with ambient PM2.5 exposure. RESULTS: Of the 2 749 704 recorded deaths, 2 453 686 (89.2%) were non-accidental, 591 267 (21.5%) were cardiovascular, and 141 066 (5.1%) were respiratory in nature. A non-linear relationship was observed between all-cause mortality and exposure to PM2.5 at lag0, whereas linear associations were evident for cause-specific mortalities. Overall, 10 814 all-cause, 7855 non-accidental, 1642 cardiovascular, and 708 respiratory deaths were attributed to short-term exposure to PM2.5. The estimated number of all-cause excess deaths due to short-term PM2.5 exposure in 2019 was 1039 (95% confidence interval, 604 to 1472). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate an association between short-term PM2.5 exposure and various mortality rates (all-cause, non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory) in Korea over the period from 2010 to 2019. Consequently, action plans should be developed to reduce deaths attributable to short-term exposure to PM2.5.

Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Humanos , Material Particulado/efectos adversos , Material Particulado/análisis , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/efectos adversos , Contaminación del Aire/efectos adversos , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , República de Corea/epidemiología , Mortalidad
PLoS One ; 19(4): e0298822, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38564620


BACKGROUND: Accurate estimates of the COVID-19 pandemic's indirect impacts are crucial, especially in low- and middle-income countries. This study aims to update estimates of excess maternal deaths in Brazil during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This was an exploratory mixed ecological study using the counterfactual approach. The observed maternal deaths were gathered from the Mortality Information System (SIM) for the period between March 2015 and February 2022. Expected deaths from March 2020 to February 2022 were estimated using quasipoisson generalized additive models, considering quadrimester, age group, and their interaction as predictor variables. Analyses were performed in R version 4.1.2, RStudio, version 2023.03.1+446 and carried out with support from the "mgcv" and "plot_model" libraries. RESULTS: A total of 5,040 maternal deaths were reported, with varying excess mortality across regions and age groups, resulting in 69% excess maternal mortality throughout Brazil during the first two years of the pandemic. The Southeast region had 50% excess mortality throughout the first two years and 76% excess in the second year. The North region had 69% excess mortality, increasing in the second year, particularly among women aged 20-34. The Northeast region showed 80% excess mortality, with a significant increase in the second year, especially among women aged 35-49. The Central-West region had 75% excess mortality, higher in the second year and statistically significant among women aged 35-49. The South region showed 117% excess mortality, reaching 203% in the second year among women aged 20-34, but no excess mortality in the 10-19 age category. CONCLUSIONS: Over two years, Brazil saw a significant impact on maternal excess deaths, regardless of region and pandemic year. The highest peak occurred between March and June 2021, emphasizing the importance of timely and effective epidemic responses to prevent avoidable deaths and prepare for new crises.

COVID-19 , Muerte Materna , Humanos , Femenino , COVID-19/epidemiología , Brasil/epidemiología , Pandemias , Familia , Mortalidad
SEMERGEN, Soc. Esp. Med. Rural Gen. (Ed. Impr.) ; 50(3): [102170], Abr. 2024. graf, tab
Artículo en Español | IBECS | ID: ibc-232208


Objetivo: Estimar el impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19 en tendencia de la mortalidad por enfermedad cardiovascular (ECV) en México. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio ecológico donde se analizaron las defunciones por ECV reportadas en México bajo la clasificación CIE-10 con los códigos I10 al I99 para el periodo 2000 al 2022. Se calcularon las tasas de mortalidad estandarizadas por edad a nivel nacional y estatal, y posteriormente se estimó la variación porcentual anual mediante el análisis de joinpoint para conocer los cambios en la tendencia de la mortalidad en el periodo estudiado. Resultados: Se presentó un incremento de 27,96 muertes por cada 100.000 habitantes del 2000 al 2022 en México. El análisis joinpoint muestra en el periodo 2019 a 2021 un cambio porcentual anual a nivel nacional de 17.398, y posteriormente se presenta una tendencia negativa entre los años 2021-2022. Los estados como Guanajuato, Tlaxcala y Querétaro mostraron los mayores incrementos en las tendencias de la mortalidad por ECV durante la pandemia por COVID-19. Conclusiones: La tendencia de la mortalidad por ECV en México se incrementó de manera importante durante la pandemia por COVID-19.(AU)

Objective: To estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality trends in Mexico. Methods: An ecological study was conducted where deaths from CVD reported in Mexico under the ICD-10 classification with codes I10 to I99 for the period 2000–2022 were analyzed. Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated at the national and state levels, then the annual percentage variation was estimated using joinpoint analysis to know the changes in the mortality trend in the period studied. Results: There was an increase of 27.96 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants from 2000 to 2022 in Mexico. The joinpoint analysis shows in the period 2019–2021 an annual percentage change at the national level of 17,398 and subsequently a negative trend is presented between the years 2021–2022. The states of Guanajuato, Tlaxcala and Querétaro showed the largest increases in CVD mortality trends during the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions: The trend in CVD mortality in Mexico increased significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic.(AU)

Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , /mortalidad , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/mortalidad , Mortalidad , Disparidades en el Estado de Salud , Prevalencia , México , /epidemiología
Int. microbiol ; 27(2): 597-606, Abr. 2024. graf
Artículo en Inglés | IBECS | ID: ibc-ADZ-169


Infections with carbapenemase-producing Gram-negative bacteria are related to increased morbidity and mortality, yet little is known regarding infections caused by non-beta-lactamase mediated carbapenem-resistant bacteria. Our objective was to identify risk factors for, and the clinical impact of infections caused by carbapenem-resistant carbapenemase-negative Enterobacterales and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. This retrospective matched case-control study was performed at the University Hospital of Basel, Switzerland, in 2016. We focused on other resistance mechanisms by excluding laboratory-confirmed carbapenemase-positive cases. Carbapenem resistance was set as the primary endpoint, and important risk factors were investigated by conditional logistic regression. The clinical impact of carbapenem resistance was estimated using regression models containing the resistance indicator as explanatory factor and adjusting for potential confounders. Seventy-five cases of infections with carbapenem-resistant, carbapenemase-negative bacteria were identified and matched with 75 controls with carbapenem-susceptible infections. The matched data set was well-balanced regarding age, gender, and comorbidity. Duration of prior carbapenem treatment (OR 1.15, [1.01, 1.31]) correlated with resistance to carbapenems. Our study showed that patients with carbapenem-resistant bacteria stayed 1.59 times (CI [0.81, 3.14]) longer in an ICU. The analyzed dataset did not provide evidence for strong clinical implications of resistance to carbapenems or increased mortality. The duration of prior carbapenem treatment seems to be a strong risk factor for the development of carbapenem resistance. The higher risk for a longer ICU stay could be a consequence of a carbapenem resistance. In contrast to carbapenemase-producers, the clinical impact of carbapenamase-negative, carbapenem-resistant strains may be limited... (AU)

Humanos , Adulto , Infecciones por Bacterias Gramnegativas , Morbilidad , Mortalidad , beta-Lactamasas
Rev. esp. geriatr. gerontol. (Ed. impr.) ; 59(2): [101449], Mar-Abr. 2024. tab, graf
Artículo en Español | IBECS | ID: ibc-231164


Fundamento: Analizar las características epidemiológicas, clínicas y funcionales de los pacientes ingresados en el Hospital Universitario de Navarra por infección por SARS-CoV-2, así como los factores predictores de mortalidad, durante la primera ola de la pandemia provocada por este virus. Metodología: Estudio observacional y retrospectivo de todos los pacientes hospitalizados mayores de 75 años entre marzo y noviembre de 2020. Se ha obtenido información sobre múltiples variables, entre las que cabe destacar los síndromes geriátricos previos y que han aparecido durante la hospitalización, o los antecedentes médicos considerados relevantes en la infección por SARS-CoV-2. Se ha realizado un análisis descriptivo de los datos, comparaciones según diversos factores de interés y análisis multivariable para analizar los factores asociados a la mortalidad. Resultados: Se obtuvieron datos de un total de 426 pacientes cuya edad media fue de 83,2 años (52,6% varones). El 34,7% fallecieron en el hospital y el 4,5% antes de un mes tras el alta hospitalaria. Los factores relacionados con la mortalidad fueron: peor situación funcional basal, enfermedad renal crónica y fiebre o disnea como formas de presentación. Los síntomas típicos más frecuentes fueron: fiebre, disnea, tos, astenia e hiporexia. Hasta el 42,1% presentaron delirium como síntoma de inicio atípico. Se objetivó un deterioro funcional que no se recuperó al mes de seguimiento (índice de Barthel basal 81,12; 70,08 al alta; 75,55 al mes). Conclusiones: La infección por SARS-CoV-2 ha provocado elevadas tasas de mortalidad en las personas mayores. En este grupo etario, es frecuente la forma de presentación atípica de esta enfermedad y el deterioro funcional durante la hospitalización. En el presente estudio se ha identificado un peor estado funcional previo como predictor de mortalidad. Son necesarios más estudios que evalúen el impacto que la enfermedad y la hospitalización tienen en el paciente mayor...(AU)

Background: The objective of the present study is to analyze the epidemiological, clinical and functional characteristics of patients admitted to the University Hospital of Navarra due to SARS-CoV-2 infection, as well as the predictors of mortality, during the first wave of the pandemic caused by this virus. Methodology: An observational, retrospective study was performed, including all hospitalized patients older than 75 years. Information has been obtained on multiple variables, among which it is worth mentioning previous geriatric syndromes or those that have appeared during hospitalization, or past medical history considered relevant in SARS-CoV-2 infection. A descriptive analysis of the data, comparisons according to various factors of interest and multivariate analysis to analyze factors associated with mortality were carried out. Results: Data have been obtained from a total of 426 patients with a mean age of 83.2 years (52.6% men). 34.7% died in hospital and 4.5% within 1 month after hospital discharge. The factors related to mortality were: worse baseline functional status, chronic kidney disease, and fever or dyspnea as forms of presentation. The most frequent typical symptoms were: fever, dyspnea, cough, asthenia and hyporexia. Up to 42.1% presented delirium as a symptom of atypical onset. We observed a functional deterioration that was not recover after a month of follow-up (baseline Barthel index 81.12; 70.08 at discharge; 75.55 after a month). Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 infection has caused high mortality rates in older adults. In this age group, the atypical presentation of this disease and functional deterioration during hospitalization are frequent. In the present study, a worse previous functional status has been identified as a predictor of mortality. More studies are needed to evaluate the impact that the disease and hospitalization have on the older patient...(AU)

Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , /epidemiología , Diagnóstico Precoz , Hospitalización , Mortalidad , Geriatría , Salud del Anciano , Estudios Retrospectivos , /diagnóstico
Respirar (Ciudad Autón. B. Aires) ; 16(1): 5-15, Marzo 2024.
Artículo en Español | LILACS, UNISALUD, BINACIS | ID: biblio-1538330


Objetivos: Millones de pacientes con COVID-19 fueron internados en terapia intensiva en el mundo, la mitad desarrollaron síndrome de dificultad respiratoria aguda (SDRA) y recibieron ventilación mecánica invasiva (VMI), con una mortalidad del 50%. Analiza-mos cómo edad, comorbilidades y complicaciones, en pacientes con COVID-19 y SDRA que recibieron VMI, se asociaron con el riesgo de morir durante su hospitalización.Métodos: Estudio de cohorte observacional, retrospectivo y multicéntrico realizado en 5 hospitales (tres privados y dos públicos universitarios) de Argentina y Chile, durante el segundo semestre de 2020.Se incluyeron pacientes >18 años con infección por SARS-CoV-2 confirmada RT-PCR, que desarrollaron SDRA y fueron asistidos con VMI durante >48 horas, durante el se-gundo semestre de 2020. Se analizaron los antecedentes, las comorbilidades más fre-cuentes (obesidad, diabetes e hipertensión), y las complicaciones shock, insuficiencia renal aguda (IRA) y neumonía asociada a la ventilación mecánica (NAV), por un lado, y las alteraciones de parámetros clínicos y de laboratorio registrados.Resultados: El 69% era varón. La incidencia de comorbilidades difirió para los diferentes grupos de edad. La mortalidad aumentó significativamente con la edad (p<0,00001). Las comorbilidades, hipertensión y diabetes, y las complicaciones de IRA y shock se asociaron significativamente con la mortalidad. En el análisis multivariado, sólo la edad mayor de 60 años, la IRA y el shock permanecieron asociados con la mortalidad. Conclusiones: El SDRA en COVID-19 es más común entre los mayores. Solo la edad >60 años, el shock y la IRA se asociaron a la mortalidad en el análisis multivariado.

Objectives: Millions of patients with COVID-19 were admitted to intensive care world-wide, half developed acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), with a mortality of 50%. We analyzed how age, comor-bidities and complications in patients with COVID-19 and ARDS who received IMV were associated with the risk of dying during their hospitalization.Methods: Observational, retrospective and multicenter cohort study carried out in 5 hospitals (three private and two public university hospitals) in Argentina and Chile, during the second half of 2020.Patients >18 years of age with SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by RT-PCR, who devel-oped ARDS and were assisted with IMV for >48 hours, during the second half of 2020, were included. History, the most frequent comorbidities (obesity, diabetes and hyper-tension) and the complications of shock, acute renal failure (AKI) and pneumonia as-sociated with mechanical ventilation (VAP), on the one hand, and the alterations of re-corded clinical and laboratory parameters, were analyzed.Results: 69% were men. The incidence of comorbidities differed for different age groups. Mortality increased significantly with age (p<0.00001). Comorbidities, hyper-tension and diabetes, and complications of ARF and shock were significantly associat-ed with mortality. In the multivariate analysis, only age over 60 years, ARF and shock remained associated with mortality.Conclusions: ARDS in COVID-19 is more common among the elderly. Only age >60 years, shock and ARF were associated with mortality in the multivariate analysis

Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Adolescente , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Neumonía/complicaciones , Respiración Artificial/métodos , Síndrome de Dificultad Respiratoria del Recién Nacido/complicaciones , Choque/complicaciones , Comorbilidad , Insuficiencia Renal/complicaciones , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiología , Argentina/epidemiología , Chile/epidemiología , Factores de Riesgo , Mortalidad , Estudio Multicéntrico
Respirar (Ciudad Autón. B. Aires) ; 16(1): 67-77, Marzo 2024.
Artículo en Español | LILACS, UNISALUD, BINACIS | ID: biblio-1551223


La tasa de reintubación orotraqueal luego de la extubación se registra entre un 10 a 20%. La aplicación de soportes respiratorios no-invasivos (SRNI) posterior a la extuba-ción como cánula nasal de alto-flujo, ventilación no invasiva (dos niveles de presión) y presión positiva continua en la vía aérea demostraron ser seguras y efectivas post ex-tubación. El período pre-destete representa un momento crucial en el manejo de los pa-cientes críticos ya que el fracaso de la extubación, definido como la necesidad de reintu-bación dentro de los 2 a 7 días, demostró peores resultados al aumentar la mortalidad entre un 25-50%. Esta situación conlleva al requerimiento de ventilación mecánica prolongada, neumonía asociada a la ventilación mecánica y estancias prolongadas de internación. Por lo tanto, es esencial identificar a los pacientes que se beneficiarán utilizando SRNI post extubación.

The rate of re-intubation after extubation is recorded at 10-20%. The use of non-invasive respiratory support (NIRS) post-extubation such as high-flow nasal cannula, non-invasive ventilation (bilevel pressure) and continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) have been shown to be safe and effective post-extubation. The pre-weaning period represents a crucial time in the management of critically ill patients, as extubation failure, defined as the need for reintubation within 2-7 days, showed worse outcomes with mortality increasing by 25-50%. This situation leads to the requirement for prolonged mechanical ventilation, ventilator-associated pneumonia and long lengths of hospital stay. Therefore, it is essential to identify patients who will benefit from NIRS post extubation.

Humanos , Presión de las Vías Aéreas Positiva Contínua/estadística & datos numéricos , Extubación Traqueal/estadística & datos numéricos , Ventilación no Invasiva/estadística & datos numéricos , Cánula/estadística & datos numéricos , Intubación Intratraqueal/estadística & datos numéricos , Respiración Artificial/estadística & datos numéricos , Factores de Riesgo , Mortalidad , Revisión
Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) ; 15: 1294819, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38495794


Background: Reducing the occurrence of diabetes is considered a primary criterion for evaluating the effectiveness of interventions for prediabetes. There is existing evidence that early lifestyle-based interventions can significantly decrease the incidence of diabetes. However, whether effective interventions can reduce long-term outcomes in patients, including all-cause mortality, cardiovascular risks, and the occurrence of microvascular complications, which are the most concerning issues for both patients and clinicians, remains a subject of inconsistent research findings. And there is no direct evidence to answer whether effective intervention has long-term benefits for prediabetic patients. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the relationship between early effective intervention and macrovascular and microvascular complications in prediabetic patients. Methods: PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched for the randomized controlled trials of lifestyle or/and drugs intervention in prediabetes from inception to 2023.9.15. Two investigators independently reviewed the included studies and extracted relevant data. Random or fixed effects model meta-analysis to derive overall relative risk (RR) with 95% CI for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and microvascular complications. Results: As of September 15, 2023, a total of 7 effective intervention studies were included, comprising 26 articles out of 25,671 articles. These studies involved 26,389 patients with a total follow-up duration of 178,038.6 person-years. The results indicate that effective intervention can significantly reduce all-cause mortality in prediabetic patients without a history of cardiovascular disease by 17% (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.70-0.98). Additionally, effective intervention reduced the incidence of retinopathy by 38% (RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.70-0.98). Furthermore, the study results suggest that women and younger individuals have lower all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Subsequently, we conducted an in-depth analysis of patients without a history of cardiovascular disease. The results revealed that prediabetic patients with a 10-year cardiovascular risk >10% experienced more significant benefits in terms of all-cause mortality (P=0.01). When comparing the results of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality from the Da Qing Diabetes Prevention Outcome Study longitudinally, it was evident that the duration of follow-up is a key factor influencing long-term benefits. In other words, the beneficial effects become more pronounced as the intervention duration reaches a certain threshold. Conclusion: Early effective intervention, which significantly reduces the incidence of diabetes, can effectively lower all-cause mortality in prediabetic patients without a history of cardiovascular disease (especially those with a 10-year cardiovascular risk >10%), with women and younger individuals benefiting more significantly. Additionally, the duration of follow-up is a key factor influencing outcomes. The conclusions of this study can provide evidence-based guidance for the clinical treatment of prediabetic patients to prevent cardiovascular and microvascular complications. Systematic review registration:, identifier CRD42020160985.

Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Mortalidad , Estado Prediabético , Humanos , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/mortalidad , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/prevención & control , Incidencia , Estado Prediabético/complicaciones , Estado Prediabético/terapia , Riesgo
Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci ; 28(5): 1976-1986, 2024 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38497880


OBJECTIVE: Leaving Against Medical Advice (LAMA) is a prevalent issue in healthcare settings that may lead to negative patient outcomes. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the impact of LAMA on patient outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was performed across PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Scopus. Studies reporting adverse outcomes, including mortality and hospital readmission rates, in patients who underwent LAMA were included. The odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using a random-effects model. RESULTS: Eight studies were included in the review, with four contributing to the meta-analysis on 1-year mortality and five to the meta-analysis on hospital readmission rates. LAMA was not significantly associated with higher 1-year mortality [OR = 0.66, 95% CI (0.38, 1.16), p = 0.15] or hospital readmission rates [OR = 0.61, 95% CI (0.30, 1.23), p = 0.16] across the studies. However, there was substantial heterogeneity in the results (I2 = 91% for mortality; I2 = 99% for readmissions). CONCLUSIONS: While individual studies reported varying outcomes, the pooled results did not show a significant association between LAMA and increased 1-year mortality or hospital readmission rates. However, the high degree of heterogeneity suggests the influence of diverse patient populations, healthcare settings, and study methodologies on these outcomes. Further research is needed to better understand the factors contributing to the adverse outcomes associated with LAMA and to develop targeted interventions to mitigate them.

Alta del Paciente , Readmisión del Paciente , Negativa del Paciente al Tratamiento , Humanos , Mortalidad
Respirar (Ciudad Autón. B. Aires) ; 16(1): 45-58, Marzo 2024.
Artículo en Español | LILACS, UNISALUD, BINACIS | ID: biblio-1551209


Introducción: La pandemia de COVID-19 causó una elevada mortalidad en el mundo y en el Ecuador. Esta investigación se propuso analizar el exceso de mortalidad debido a la pandemia de COVID-19 en Ecuador. Método: Estudio observacional, longitudinal, cuantitativo y descriptivo. Clasificado como estudio ecológico en el campo de la epidemiología. Este estudio se centra en la medición del exceso de mortalidad durante los años 2020, 2021 y 2022, tomando como período base el promedio de defunciones ocurridas en el intervalo de 2015 a 2019. Resultados: Ecuador, en el período de enero 2020 a octubre 2022, acumuló un exceso total de muertes de 98.915. En el año 2020, el exceso de mortalidad fue mayor a 46.374, siendo el mes de abril el valor más alto de 15.484. En el año 2021, el exceso de muertes fue de 35.859, siendo abril el mes con mayor exceso de 7.330. Y el año 2022 el exceso de mortalidad fue de 16.682, el mes con mayor exceso fue enero con 4.204. Conclusión: Se evidenció un subregistro de defunciones, así como variaciones temporales y geográficas en el exceso de mortalidad. La provincia con mayor número de fallecidos y exceso de mortalidad fue Guayas seguida de Pichincha. Los resultados proporcionan un análisis del panorama durante la emergencia sanitaria, destacando la importancia de evaluar la capacidad de respuesta de los sistemas de salud en momentos de crisis y la necesidad imperativa de implementar medidas correctivas para el futuro.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant mortality in the world and in Ecuador. This research aimed to analyze the excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Ecuador. Method: An observational, longitudinal, quantitative and descriptive study, classified as an ecological study in the field of epidemiology. This study focuses on measuring excess mortality during the years 2020, 2021 and 2022, using the average number of deaths that occurred in the period from 2015 to 2019 as the baseline. Results: From January 2020 to October 2022, Ecuador accumulated a total excess of deaths of 98,915. In 2020, the excess mortality was higher at 46,374, with the highest value occurring in April at 15,484. In 2021, the excess deaths amounted to 35,859, with April having the highest excess of 7,330. In 2022, the excess mortality was 16,682, with January recording the highest excess at 4,204. Conclusion: Evidence of underreporting of deaths, as well as temporal and geographi-cal variations in excess mortality, was observed. The province with the highest number of deaths and excess mortality was Guayas, followed by Pichincha. The results provide an analysis of the situation during the health emergency, emphasizing the importance of evaluating the healthcare system's capacity to respond during times of crisis and the imperative need to implement corrective measures for the future.

Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiología , Sistemas de Salud/organización & administración , Mortalidad , Ecuador/epidemiología , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Servicios de Salud
Respirar (Ciudad Autón. B. Aires) ; 16(1): 31-43, Marzo 2024.
Artículo en Español | LILACS, UNISALUD, BINACIS | ID: biblio-1551189


Introducción: El cáncer de pulmón (CP) es una enfermedad con gran impacto a nivel mundial en el número de muertes y en costos en salud. La alta incidencia y mortalidad de esta enfermedad asociada al diagnóstico tardío, y la mejoría del pronóstico ante una detección temprana, determinan que sea una patología pasible de beneficiarse mediante detección temprana. La tomografía de baja dosis de radiación (TCBD) demostró ser un método que se pue- de realizar periódicamente a un grupo de personas con alto riesgo de desarrollar CP y así reducir la mortalidad por esta enfermedad. Sin embargo, este beneficio es tal cuan- do se encuentra desarrollado bajo un programa organizado y con participación multi- disciplinaria especializada en cáncer de pulmón. Métodos: Se plantea determinar lineamientos básicos para el desarrollo de la detección temprana de cáncer de pulmón en América Latina para que pueda ser realizada en forma uniforme, con el menor riesgo y el máximo beneficio esperado. Se analizaron las principales publicaciones referidas a este tema, contemplando la diversidad de atención y acceso de América Latina. Resultado: Se desarrollan requerimientos mínimos para la implementación de un pro- grama. Discusión: El número de programas en la región es escaso y depende más de esfuerzos individuales que de políticas generales de salud. Consideramos que estos lineamien- tos pueden servir de apoyo para el desarrollo de más programas en la región y de for- ma más homogénea.

Introduction: Lung cancer (LC) is a disease with a great impact worldwide in the number of deaths and health costs. The high incidence and mortality of this disease associated with late diagnosis and the improved prognosis with early detection determine that it is a pathology that can benefit from early detection. Low radiation dose tomography (LDCT) demonstrated a method that can be performed periodically to a group of people at high risk of developing CP and thus reduce mortality from this disease. However, this benefit is such when it is developed under an organized program with multidisciplinary participation specialized in lung cancer. Methods: It is proposed to determine basic guidelines for the development of early de- tection of lung cancer in Latin America so that it can be carried out uniformly, with the lowest risk and the maximum expected benefit. The main publications referring to this topic were analyzed, considering the diversity of care and access in Latin America. Result: Minimum requirements are developed for the implementation of a program. Discussion: The number of programs in the region is small and depends more on individual efforts than on general health policies. We consider that these guidelines can serve as support for the development of more programs in the region and in a more ho- mogeneous way.

Humanos , Planes y Programas de Salud , Detección Precoz del Cáncer , Neoplasias Pulmonares/diagnóstico , Grupo de Atención al Paciente/organización & administración , Servicios Preventivos de Salud/organización & administración , Tomografía/métodos , Incidencia , Mortalidad , Educación Profesional , Política de Salud , América Latina
Int J Epidemiol ; 53(2)2024 Feb 14.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38508869


BACKGROUND: Rising midlife mortality in the USA has raised concerns, particularly the increase in 'deaths of despair' (due to drugs, alcohol and suicide). Life expectancy is also stalling in other countries such as the UK, but how trends in midlife mortality are evolving outside the USA is less understood. We provide a synthesis of cause-specific mortality trends in midlife (25-64 years of age) for the USA and the UK as well as other high-income and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. METHODS: We document trends in midlife mortality in the USA, UK and a group of 13 high-income countries in Western Europe, Australia, Canada and Japan, as well as seven CEE countries from 1990 to 2019. We use annual mortality data from the World Health Organization Mortality Database to analyse sex- and age-specific (25-44, 45-54 and 55-64 years) age-standardized death rates across 15 major cause-of-death categories. RESULTS: US midlife mortality rates have worsened since 1990 for several causes of death including drug-related, alcohol-related, suicide, metabolic diseases, nervous system diseases, respiratory diseases and infectious/parasitic diseases. Deaths due to homicide, transport accidents and cardiovascular diseases have declined since 1990 but saw recent increases or stalling of improvements. Midlife mortality also increased in the UK for people aged 45-54 year and in Canada, Poland and Sweden among for those aged 25-44 years. CONCLUSIONS: The USA is increasingly falling behind not only high-income, but also CEE countries, some of which were heavily impacted by the post-socialist mortality crisis of the 1990s. Although levels of midlife mortality in the UK are substantially lower than those in the USA overall, there are signs that UK midlife mortality is worsening relative to that in Western Europe.

Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Esperanza de Vida , Humanos , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , Causas de Muerte , Organización Mundial de la Salud , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Mortalidad
JAMA ; 331(7): 592-600, 2024 02 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38497697


Importance: Residential evictions may have increased excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Objective: To estimate excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic for renters who received eviction filings (threatened renters). Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used an excess mortality framework. Mortality based on linked eviction and death records from 2020 through 2021 was compared with projected mortality estimated from similar records from 2010 through 2016. Data from court records between January 1, 2020, and August 31, 2021, were collected via the Eviction Lab's Eviction Tracking System. Similar data from court records between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2016, also collected by the Eviction Lab, were used to estimate projected mortality during the pandemic. We also constructed 2 comparison groups: all individuals living in the study area and a subsample of those individuals living in high-poverty, high-filing tracts. Exposures: Eviction filing. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality in a given month. The difference between observed mortality and projected mortality was used as a measure of excess mortality associated with the pandemic. Results: The cohort of threatened renters during the pandemic period consisted of 282 000 individuals (median age, 36 years [IQR, 28-47]). Eviction filings were 44.7% lower than expected during the study period. The composition of threatened renters by race, ethnicity, sex, and socioeconomic characteristics during the pandemic was comparable with the prepandemic composition. Expected cumulative age-standardized mortality among threatened renters during this 20-month period of the pandemic was 116.5 (95% CI, 104.0-130.3) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 238.6 (95% CI, 230.8-246.3) per 100 000 person-months or 106% higher than expected. In contrast, expected mortality for the population living in similar neighborhoods was 114.6 (95% CI, 112.1-116.8) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 142.8 (95% CI, 140.2-145.3) per 100 000 person-months or 25% higher than expected. In the general population across the study area, expected mortality was 83.5 (95% CI, 83.3-83.8) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 91.6 (95% CI, 91.4-91.8) per 100 000 person-months or 9% higher than expected. The pandemic produced positive excess mortality ratios across all age groups among threatened renters. Conclusions and Relevance: Renters who received eviction filings experienced substantial excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 , Inestabilidad de Vivienda , Mortalidad , Determinantes Sociales de la Salud , Adulto , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/mortalidad , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Determinantes Sociales de la Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Pobreza/estadística & datos numéricos , Persona de Mediana Edad
JAMA ; 331(7): 570-571, 2024 02 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38497705