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1.
Sci Total Environ ; 750: 141667, 2021 Jan 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32871370

RESUMEN

Stable isotopes are increasingly used to detect and understand the impacts of environmental changes on riverine ecological properties. The δ13C and δ15N signatures of fish with different feeding habits were measured in a large subtropical river to evaluate how fish isotopic niches respond to environmental gradients and human disturbance. From basal resources to fish consumers, the high values of epilithic periphyton (biofilm) δ13C and suspended particulate organic matter δ15N concurrently determined the niche ranges and space (e.g., convex hull area) of fish communities. Along a longitudinal gradient (except in the industrial zone), the number of fish trophic guilds identified by Bayesian ellipses continuously increased; meanwhile, higher trophic diversity and less redundancy were observed near the lower reaches and estuary. Variance inflation factors were estimated to detect the multicollinearity of 40 environmental variables, 14 of which were selected as indicators. Relative importance (RI) analysis was used to evaluate the explanatory power of these indicators for the spatial variation in isotopic niche metrics; the results showed that riffle habitat area, water nitrate concentration, gravel-cobble substrate, and riparian buffer width were the 4 key environmental indicators (average RI > 12%) that determined the longitudinal pattern of fish isotopic niches. These findings suggested that community-level δ13C signatures are more responsive to changes in habitats (e.g., riffle) and substrates (e.g., gravel-cobble) supporting the productivity of autochthonous diatoms while δ15N signatures respond to water quality altered by nitrogen pollution from manure-fertilized farming and poultry livestock effluent. Furthermore, δ15N may be more robust and interpretable than δ13C as an isotopic indicator of ecosystem change in rivers exposed to multiple or complex anthropogenic stressors.


Asunto(s)
Ecosistema , Ríos , Animales , Teorema de Bayes , Isótopos de Carbono/análisis , China , Indicadores Ambientales , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Humanos , Isótopos de Nitrógeno/análisis
2.
Sci Total Environ ; 750: 141735, 2021 Jan 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32877786

RESUMEN

The relationship between alkaline earth elements in utero exposure and the risk of cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL ± P) remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the associations between the concentration of alkaline earth elements in umbilical cord and risk for CL ± P. A case-control study was carried out in this study, including 78 cases and 142 controls. Association between each metals and the risk of CL ± P were evaluated with conventional logistic regression, bayesian kernel machine regression and weighted quantile sum regression models. Logistic regression model indicated that in utero exposure to higher levels of Barium was associated with increasing risk for CL ± P (odds ratio = 2.79, 95% confidence interval, 1.22-6.38) and for cleft lip with cleft palate (odds ratio = 3.94, 95% confidence interval, 1.45-10.72). Bayesian kernel machine regression model showed the statistical association between the metals mixture and risk difference of CL ± P, and barium was associated with CL ± P risk when all other metals were held fixed at the 25th percentiles (risk difference = 1.07, 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.14). In weighted quantile sum model, barium accounted for most of the weight index in the combined effect of the metals mixture. The weighted quantile sum index showed that a quartile increase in the index resulted in an increase odds of 1.69 (95% confidence interval, 1.16-2.46) for CL ± P and of 2.11 (95% confidence interval, 1.34-3.35) for CLP. No associations were found in the three statistical models between Calcium, Magnesium and Strontium and the risks of CL ± P. In conclusion, in utero exposure to mixtures of alkaline earth elements was associated with an increased risk for CL ± P, of which barium was likely to be important factors in the development.


Asunto(s)
Labio Leporino , Fisura del Paladar , Teorema de Bayes , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Labio Leporino/epidemiología , Fisura del Paladar/epidemiología , Humanos , Cordón Umbilical
3.
Mar Environ Res ; 162: 105163, 2020 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33137597

RESUMEN

Shallow coastal zones may provide cross-habitat nutrient subsidies for benthic communities offshore, as macrophyte matter can drift to deeper sediments. To study the relative importance of carbon and nutrient flows derived from different primary food sources in a coastal ecosystem, the diets of clam Macoma balthica, polychaete Marenzelleria spp. and mussel Mytilus trossulus were examined across environmental gradients in the northern Baltic Sea using a triple-isotope approach (i.e. 13C, 15N and 34S) and Bayesian mixing models (MixSIAR). Our results suggest that in shallow habitats, production from Fucus vesiculosus is the primary energy source for M. balthica. The proportion of macroalgae-derived matter in the diet of M. balthica and Marenzelleria spp. decreased following a depth gradient. Our models for M. trossulus indicate that the pelagic POM dominates its diet. Our results indicate a trophic connectivity between shallow macrophyte-dominated and deeper habitats, which receive significant amounts of nutrient subsidies from shallower areas.


Asunto(s)
Algas Marinas , Animales , Países Bálticos , Teorema de Bayes , Ecosistema , Cadena Alimentaria , Isótopos de Nitrógeno/análisis
4.
BMJ Glob Health ; 5(11)2020 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33168521

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Respiratory viruses (RVs) is a common cause of illness in people of all ages, at present, different types of sampling methods are available for respiratory viral diagnosis. However, the diversity of available sampling methods and the limited direct comparisons in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) make decision-making difficult. We did a network meta-analysis, which accounted for both direct and indirect comparisons, to determine the detection rate of different sampling methods for RVs. METHODS: Relevant articles were retrieved comprehensively by searching the online databases of PubMed, Embase and Cochrane published before 25 March 2020. With the help of R V.3.6.3 software and 'GeMTC V.0.8.2' package, network meta-analysis was performed within a Bayesian framework. Node-splitting method and I 2 test combined leverage graphs and Gelman-Rubin-Brooks plots were conducted to evaluate the model's accuracy. The rank probabilities in direct and cumulative rank plots were also incorporated to rank the corresponding sampling methods for overall and specific virus. RESULTS: 16 sampling methods with 54 438 samples from 57 literatures were ultimately involved in this study. The model indicated good consistency and convergence but high heterogeneity, hence, random-effect analysis was applied. The top three sampling methods for RVs were nasopharyngeal wash (NPW), mid-turbinate swab (MTS) and nasopharyngeal swab (NPS). Despite certain differences, the results of virus-specific subanalysis were basically consistent with RVs: MTS, NPW and NPS for influenza; MTS, NPS and NPW for influenza-a and b; saliva, NPW and NPS for rhinovirus and parainfluenza; NPW, MTS and nasopharyngeal aspirate for respiratory syncytial virus; saliva, NPW and MTS for adenovirus and sputum; MTS and NPS for coronavirus. CONCLUSION: This network meta-analysis provides supporting evidences that NPW, MTS and NPS have higher diagnostic value regarding RVs infection, moreover, particular preferred methods should be considered in terms of specific virus pandemic. Of course, subsequent RCTs with larger samples are required to validate our findings.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio/virología , Manejo de Especímenes/métodos , Teorema de Bayes , Humanos , Metaanálisis en Red
5.
BMC Bioinformatics ; 21(1): 515, 2020 Nov 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33176690

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Numerical solutions of the chemical master equation (CME) are important for understanding the stochasticity of biochemical systems. However, solving CMEs is a formidable task. This task is complicated due to the nonlinear nature of the reactions and the size of the networks which result in different realizations. Most importantly, the exponential growth of the size of the state-space, with respect to the number of different species in the system makes this a challenging assignment. When the biochemical system has a large number of variables, the CME solution becomes intractable. We introduce the intelligent state projection (ISP) method to use in the stochastic analysis of these systems. For any biochemical reaction network, it is important to capture more than one moment: this allows one to describe the system's dynamic behaviour. ISP is based on a state-space search and the data structure standards of artificial intelligence (AI). It can be used to explore and update the states of a biochemical system. To support the expansion in ISP, we also develop a Bayesian likelihood node projection (BLNP) function to predict the likelihood of the states. RESULTS: To demonstrate the acceptability and effectiveness of our method, we apply the ISP method to several biological models discussed in prior literature. The results of our computational experiments reveal that the ISP method is effective both in terms of the speed and accuracy of the expansion, and the accuracy of the solution. This method also provides a better understanding of the state-space of the system in terms of blueprint patterns. CONCLUSIONS: The ISP is the de-novo method which addresses both accuracy and performance problems for CME solutions. It systematically expands the projection space based on predefined inputs. This ensures accuracy in the approximation and an exact analytical solution for the time of interest. The ISP was more effective both in predicting the behavior of the state-space of the system and in performance management, which is a vital step towards modeling large biochemical systems.


Asunto(s)
Modelos Biológicos , Teorema de Bayes , Catálisis , Cadenas de Markov , Procesos Estocásticos
6.
PLoS One ; 15(11): e0241543, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33180803

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread rapidly around the globe during the past 3 months. As the virus infected cases and mortality rate of this disease is increasing exponentially, scientists and researchers all over the world are relentlessly working to understand this new virus along with possible treatment regimens by discovering active therapeutic agents and vaccines. So, there is an urgent requirement of new and effective medications that can treat the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We perform the study of drugs that are already available in the market and being used for other diseases to accelerate clinical recovery, in other words repurposing of existing drugs. The vast complexity in drug design and protocols regarding clinical trials often prohibit developing various new drug combinations for this epidemic disease in a limited time. Recently, remarkable improvements in computational power coupled with advancements in Machine Learning (ML) technology have been utilized to revolutionize the drug development process. Consequently, a detailed study using ML for the repurposing of therapeutic agents is urgently required. Here, we report the ML model based on the Naive Bayes algorithm, which has an accuracy of around 73% to predict the drugs that could be used for the treatment of COVID-19. Our study predicts around ten FDA approved commercial drugs that can be used for repurposing. Among all, we found that 3 of the drugs fulfils the criterions well among which the antiretroviral drug Amprenavir (DrugBank ID-DB00701) would probably be the most effective drug based on the selected criterions. CONCLUSIONS: Our study can help clinical scientists in being more selective in identifying and testing the therapeutic agents for COVID-19 treatment. The ML based approach for drug discovery as reported here can be a futuristic smart drug designing strategy for community applications.


Asunto(s)
Betacoronavirus/efectos de los fármacos , Reposicionamiento de Medicamentos , Aprendizaje Automático , Simulación del Acoplamiento Molecular , Algoritmos , Teorema de Bayes , Infecciones por Coronavirus/tratamiento farmacológico , Humanos , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/tratamiento farmacológico
7.
Rev Saude Publica ; 54: e112, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés, Portugués | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33146301

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To describe the spatial and temporal distribution of TB-HIV co-infection, as well as the profile of the characteristics of the co-infected population in the municipality of São Paulo. METHODS: This is an ecological and time series study with data from the Tuberculosis Patient Control System (TBWeb), including all new cases of tuberculosis co-infected individuals with HIV living in the municipality from 2007 to 2015. Time trends of the disease were analyzed using Prais-Winsten regression. The cases were geocoded by the address of residence for the elaboration of maps with the incidence rates smoothed by the local empirical Bayesian method. The global and local Moran indexes evaluated spatial autocorrelation. Individuals' profiles were described and the characteristics of the cases with and without fixed residence were compared by Pearson's chi-square or Fisher's exact tests. RESULTS: We analyzed 6,092 new cases of TB-HIV co-infection (5,609 with fixed residence and 483 without fixed residence). The proportion of TB-HIV co-infection ranged from 10.5% to 13.7%, with a drop of 3.0% per year (95%CI -3.4 - -2.6) and was higher in individuals without fixed residence. Incidence rates decreased by 3.6% per year (95%CI -4.4% - -2.7%), declining from 7.0 to 5.3 per 100,000 inhabitants/year. Co-infection showed positive and significant spatial autocorrelation, with heterogeneous spatial pattern and a high-risk cluster in the central region of the municipality. Cure was achieved in 55.5% of cases with fixed residence and in 32.7% of those without a fixed residence. CONCLUSIONS: The data indicate an important advance in the control of TB-HIV co-infection in the period analyzed. However, we identified areas and populations that were unequally affected by the disease and that should be prioritized in the improvement of actions to prevent and control co-infection.


Asunto(s)
Coinfección/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Tuberculosis/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Teorema de Bayes , Brasil/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , Ciudades , Femenino , Infecciones por VIH/complicaciones , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Análisis Espacial , Adulto Joven
8.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 99(45): e23019, 2020 Nov 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33157951

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The symptoms of frequent nausea and vomiting, inability to eat, and fluid imbalance caused by hyperemesis gravidarum (HG) seriously impact the quality of life of pregnant women. In some serious cases, it is even necessary to terminate the pregnancy, and threatens the life of the pregnant woman. A great many of studies have proved that HG can be effectively treated by traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) external treatment. Nevertheless, its relative effectiveness and safety haven't yet been confirmed because of the variety of TCM external treatment. Therefore, we will use the method of network meta-analysis to verify the effectiveness and safety of different types of TCM external treatment for the HG. METHODS: In this study, English and Chinese literatures that meet the requirements will be searched in EMBASE, PubMed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, CnKI, VIP, Wanfang, and CBM. Regardless of whether blinding is used or not, all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) using TCM external treatment for the HG will be included. Then, Stata 16.0 will be used to conduct a series of pairwise meta-analysis. WinBUGS 1.4.3 and Stata 16.0 will be used to conduct Bayesian network meta-analysis to evaluate the relative results of different TCM external treatments for the HG. The quality included in the study will be evaluated through the classification of Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE). RESULTS: This study will evaluate the effectiveness and safety of TCM external treatment for the HG according to the primary and secondary outcomes, and we rank different kinds of TCM external treatments in accordance with effectiveness. The primary outcomes are the intensity of nausea and vomiting. Secondary outcomes include quality of life, adverse outcome of pregnant women, adverse outcome of fetal, duration of hospitalization and so on. CONCLUSION: This study will provide more convincing and detailed information of TCM external treatment for the HG, and the reference value for clinical treatment. INPLASY REGISTRATION NUMBER: INPLASY 202090089.


Asunto(s)
Hiperemesis Gravídica/terapia , Medicina China Tradicional/efectos adversos , Medicina China Tradicional/métodos , Teorema de Bayes , Femenino , Humanos , Hiperemesis Gravídica/psicología , Metaanálisis en Red , Embarazo , Calidad de Vida , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Seguridad , Resultado del Tratamiento
9.
Dis Aquat Organ ; 142: 83-97, 2020 Nov 19.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33210615

RESUMEN

The present study describes a new species of myxosporean, Ellipsomyxa ariusi sp. nov., infecting the gallbladder of the threadfin sea catfish Arius arius (Hamilton, 1822). E. ariusi sp. nov. is characterized by bivalvular, ellipsoid or elongate-oval myxospores with smooth spore valves and a straight suture, arranged at an angle to the longitudinal spore axis. Mature myxospores measured 10.1 ± 0.8 µm in length, 6.8 ± 0.5 µm in width and 7.7 ± 0.7 µm in thickness. Polar capsules are equal in size and oval to pyriform in shape. They are positioned at an angle to the longitudinal myxospore axis and open in opposite directions. Polar capsules measured 2.8 ± 0.3 µm in length and 2.5 ± 0.4 µm in width; polar filaments formed 4-5 coils, and extended to 32.2 ± 2.1 µm in length. Monosporic and disporic plasmodial stages attached to the wall of gallbladder. Molecular analysis of the type specimen generated a 1703 bp partial SSU rDNA sequence (MN892546), which was identical to the isolates from 3 other locations. In phylogenetic analyses, genus Ellipsomyxa appeared monophyletic and E. ariusi sp. nov. occupied an independent position in maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference trees with high bootstrap values. The overall prevalence of infection was 54.8% and multiway ANOVA revealed that it varied significantly with location, year, season, sex and size of the fish host. Histopathological changes associated with E. ariusi sp. nov. infection included swelling, vacuolation and detachment of epithelial layer, reduced mucus production and altered consistency and colour of bile. Based on the morphologic, morphometric and molecular differences with known species of Ellipsomyxa, and considering differences in host and geographic locations, the present species is treated as new and the name Ellipsomyxa ariusi sp. nov. is proposed.


Asunto(s)
Bagres , Enfermedades de los Peces , Myxozoa , Enfermedades Parasitarias en Animales , Animales , Teorema de Bayes , Vesícula Biliar , India , Myxozoa/genética , Enfermedades Parasitarias en Animales/epidemiología , Filogenia
10.
Stud Health Technol Inform ; 275: 62-66, 2020 Nov 23.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33227741

RESUMEN

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory autoimmune disease, that can lead to joint damage but also affects quality of life (QoL) including aspects such as self-esteem, fatigue, and mood. Current medical management focuses on the fluctuating disease activity to prevent progressive disability, but practical constraints mean periodic clinic appointments give little attention to the patient's experience of managing the wider consequences of chronic illness. The main aim of this study is to explore how to use patient-derived data both for clinical decision-making and for personalisation, with the first steps towards a platform for tailoring self-management advice to patients' lifestyle changes. As a result, we proposed a Bayesian network model for personalisation and have obtained promising outcomes.


Asunto(s)
Artritis Reumatoide , Automanejo , Artritis Reumatoide/terapia , Teorema de Bayes , Fatiga , Humanos , Calidad de Vida
11.
BMC Med ; 18(1): 332, 2020 10 22.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33087179

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Asymptomatic or subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections are often unreported, which means that confirmed case counts may not accurately reflect underlying epidemic dynamics. Understanding the level of ascertainment (the ratio of confirmed symptomatic cases to the true number of symptomatic individuals) and undetected epidemic progression is crucial to informing COVID-19 response planning, including the introduction and relaxation of control measures. Estimating case ascertainment over time allows for accurate estimates of specific outcomes such as seroprevalence, which is essential for planning control measures. METHODS: Using reported data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities globally, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic cases (i.e. any person with any of fever ≥ 37.5 °C, cough, shortness of breath, sudden onset of anosmia, ageusia or dysgeusia illness) that were reported in 210 countries and territories, given those countries had experienced more than ten deaths. We used published estimates of the baseline case fatality ratio (CFR), which was adjusted for delays and under-ascertainment, then calculated the ratio of this baseline CFR to an estimated local delay-adjusted CFR to estimate the level of under-ascertainment in a particular location. We then fit a Bayesian Gaussian process model to estimate the temporal pattern of under-ascertainment. RESULTS: Based on reported cases and deaths, we estimated that, during March 2020, the median percentage of symptomatic cases detected across the 84 countries which experienced more than ten deaths ranged from 2.4% (Bangladesh) to 100% (Chile). Across the ten countries with the highest number of total confirmed cases as of 6 July 2020, we estimated that the peak number of symptomatic cases ranged from 1.4 times (Chile) to 18 times (France) larger than reported. Comparing our model with national and regional seroprevalence data where available, we find that our estimates are consistent with observed values. Finally, we estimated seroprevalence for each country. As of 7 June, our seroprevalence estimates range from 0% (many countries) to 13% (95% CrI 5.6-24%) (Belgium). CONCLUSIONS: We found substantial under-ascertainment of symptomatic cases, particularly at the peak of the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, in many countries. Reported case counts will therefore likely underestimate the rate of outbreak growth initially and underestimate the decline in the later stages of an epidemic. Although there was considerable under-reporting in many locations, our estimates were consistent with emerging serological data, suggesting that the proportion of each country's population infected with SARS-CoV-2 worldwide is generally low.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Teorema de Bayes , Betacoronavirus , Humanos , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos
13.
Water Sci Technol ; 82(8): 1586-1602, 2020 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33107853

RESUMEN

The mathematical model's usage in water quality prediction has received more interest recently. In this research, the potential of random forest regression (RFR), Bayesian multiple linear regression (BMLR), and multiple linear regression (MLR) were examined to predict the amount of 2,4-dichlorophenoxy acetic acid (2,4-D) elimination by rice husk biochar from synthetic wastewater, using five input operating parameters including initial 2,4-D concentration, adsorbent dosage, pH, reaction time, and temperature. The equilibrium and kinetic adsorption data were fitted best to the Freundlich and pseudo-first-order models. The thermodynamic parameters also indicated the exothermic and spontaneous nature of adsorption. The modeling results indicated an R2 of 0.994, 0.992, and 0.945 and RMSE of 1.92, 6.17, and 2.10 for the relationship between the model-estimated and measured values of 2,4-D removal for RFR, BMLR, and MLR, respectively. Overall performances indicated more proficiency of RFR than the BMLR and MLR models due to its capability in capturing the non-linear relationships between input data and their associated removal capacities. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the 2,4-D adsorption process is more sensitive to initial 2,4-D concentration and adsorbent dosage. Thus, it is possible to permanently monitor waters more cost-effectively with the suggested model application.


Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Químicos del Agua , Ácido 2,4-Diclorofenoxiacético , Adsorción , Teorema de Bayes , Concentración de Iones de Hidrógeno , Cinética , Modelos Lineales , Temperatura , Termodinámica
14.
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop ; 53: e20200316, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33111911

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: The increasing incidence of syphilis among pregnant women (PS) and congenital syphilis (CS) has negatively affected maternal-child health in Brazil. The spatial approach to diseases with social indicators improves knowledge of health situations. Herein, we aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of incidences, identify the priority areas for infection control actions, and analyze the relationship of PS and CS clusters with social determinants of health in Mato Grosso. METHODS: This is an ecological study with data from different health information systems. After data procedure linkage, we analyzed the Bayesian incidences of triennial infections during specific periods. We performed SATSCAN screenings to identify spatiotemporal clusters. Further, we verified the differences between the clusters and indicators using Pearson's chi-square test. RESULTS: The variations in PS incidence were 0.9-20.5/1,000 live births (LB), 0.6-46.3/1,000 LB, and 2.1-23.2/1,000 LB in the first, second, and last triennium, respectively; for CS, the variations were 0-7.1/1,000 LB, 0-7.5/1,000 LB, and 0.3-10.8/1,000 LB in the first, second, and last triennium, respectively. Three clusters each were identified for PS (RR=2.02; RR=0.30; RR=21.45, p<0.0001) and CS (RR=3.55; RR=0.10; RR=0.26, p<0.0001). The high-risk clusters overlapped in time-space; CS incidence was associated with municipalities with a higher proportion of LB mothers of race/non-white color and with poor sanitary conditions, lower proportion of pregnant teenagers, and under 8 years of schooling. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the spatiotemporal evolution of PS and CS incidences and the extension of areas with persistent infections indicate the need for monitoring, especially of priority areas in the state.


Asunto(s)
Complicaciones Infecciosas del Embarazo , Sífilis Congénita , Adolescente , Teorema de Bayes , Brasil/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Embarazo , Complicaciones Infecciosas del Embarazo/epidemiología , Determinantes Sociales de la Salud , Sífilis Congénita/epidemiología
15.
BMC Infect Dis ; 20(1): 772, 2020 Oct 19.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33076868

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: CRF_BC recombinants, including CRF07_BC and CRF08_BC, were considered the predominant subtypes in China. Since the discovery of HIV-1 circulating recombinant form CRF 85_BC in Southwest China in 2016, this BC recombinant forms had been reported in different regions of China. However, the history and magnitude of CRF85_BC transmission were still to be investigated. METHOD: We conducted the most recent molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 among newly reported HIV-1 infected patients in Sichuan in 2019 by sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of 1291 pol sequences. Then, we used maximum likelihood approach and the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of pol sequences to reconstruct the phylogeographic and demographic dynamics of the CRF85_BC. RESULTS: HIV-1 CRF85_BC (68/1291, 5.27%) became the fourth most prevalent strain revealing a significant increase in local population. CRF85_BC were only found in heterosexually infected individuals and the majority of CRF85_BC (95.45%) were circulating among the people living with HIV aged 50 years and over (PLHIV50+), suggesting a unique prevalent pattern. The founder lineages of CRF85_BC were likely to have first emerged in Yunnan, a province of Southwest China bordering Sichuan, in the early 2000s. It then spread exponentially to various places (including Guangxi, Sichuan, et al) and became endemic around 2008.6 (2006.7-2010.2) in Sichuan. CONCLUSION: Taken together, our findings on HIV-1 subtype CRF85_BC infections provided new insights into the spread of this virus and extended the understanding of the HIV epidemic in China.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones por VIH/transmisión , Infecciones por VIH/virología , VIH-1/clasificación , Adulto , Teorema de Bayes , China/epidemiología , Epidemias , Femenino , Genotipo , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , VIH-1/genética , VIH-1/aislamiento & purificación , Heterosexualidad , Humanos , Funciones de Verosimilitud , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Epidemiología Molecular , Filogenia , Filogeografía
16.
Annu Int Conf IEEE Eng Med Biol Soc ; 2020: 5673-5677, 2020 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33019264

RESUMEN

While there have been several efforts to use mHealth technologies to support asthma management, none so far offer personalised algorithms that can provide real-time feedback and tailored advice to patients based on their monitoring. This work employed a publicly available mHealth dataset, the Asthma Mobile Health Study (AMHS), and applied machine learning techniques to develop early warning algorithms to enhance asthma self-management. The AMHS consisted of longitudinal data from 5,875 patients, including 13,614 weekly surveys and 75,795 daily surveys. We applied several well-known supervised learning algorithms (classification) to differentiate stable and unstable periods and found that both logistic regression and naïve Bayes-based classifiers provided high accuracy (AUC > 0.87). We found features related to the use of quick-relief puffs, night symptoms, frequency of data entry, and day symptoms (in descending order of importance) as the most useful features to detect early evidence of loss of control. We found no additional value of using peak flow readings to improve population level early warning algorithms.


Asunto(s)
Asma , Automanejo , Telemedicina , Asma/diagnóstico , Teorema de Bayes , Humanos , Aprendizaje Automático
17.
J Environ Sci (China) ; 98: 118-123, 2020 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33097142

RESUMEN

The deposition and the re-suspension of particulate matter (PM) in urban areas are the key processes that contribute not only to stormwater pollution, but also to air pollution. However, investigation of the deposition and the re-suspension of PM is challenging because of the difficulties in distinguishing between the resuspended and the deposited PM. This study created two Bayesian Networks (BN) models to explore the deposition and the re-suspension of PM as well as the important influential factors. The outcomes of BN modelling revealed that deposition and re-suspension of PM10 occurred under both, high-traffic and low-traffic conditions, and the re-suspension of PM2.5 occurred under low-traffic conditions. The deposition of PM10 under low-volume traffic condition is 1.6 times higher than under high-volume traffic condition, which is attributed to the decrease in PM10 caused by relatively higher turbulence under high-volume traffic conditions. PM10 is more easily resuspended from road surfaces compared to PM2.5 as the particles which larger than the thickness of the laminar airflow over the road surface are more easily removed from road surfaces. The increase in wind speed contributes to the increase in PM build-up by transporting particulates from roadside areas to the road surfaces and the airborne PM2.5 and PM10 increases with the increase in relative humidity. The study outcomes provide a step improvement in the understanding of the transfer processes of PM2.5 and PM10 between atmosphere and urban road surfaces, which in turn will contribute to the effective design of mitigation measures for urban stormwater and air pollution.


Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Material Particulado , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Atmósfera , Teorema de Bayes , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Material Particulado/análisis
18.
Math Biosci Eng ; 17(5): 5085-5098, 2020 07 27.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33120541

RESUMEN

The COVID-19 outbreak, designated a "pandemic" by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 March 2020, has spread worldwide rapidly. Each country implemented prevention and control strategies, mainly classified as SARS LCS (SARS-like containment strategy) or PAIN LMS (pandemic influenza-like mitigation strategy). The reasons for variation in each strategy's efficacy in controlling COVID-19 epidemics were unclear and are investigated in this paper. On the basis of the daily number of confirmed local (imported) cases and onset-to-confirmation distributions for local cases, we initially estimated the daily number of local (imported) illness onsets by a deconvolution method for mainland China, South Korea, Japan and Spain, and then estimated the effective reproduction numbers Rt by using a Bayesian method for each of the four countries. China and South Korea adopted a strict SARS LCS, to completely block the spread via lockdown, strict travel restrictions and by detection and isolation of patients, which led to persistent declines in effective reproduction numbers. In contrast, Japan and Spain adopted a typical PAIN LMS to mitigate the spread via maintaining social distance, self-quarantine and isolation etc., which reduced the Rt values but with oscillations around 1. The finding suggests that governments may need to consider multiple factors such as quantities of medical resources, the likely extent of the public's compliance to different intensities of intervention measures, and the economic situation to design the most appropriate policies to fight COVID-19 epidemics.


Asunto(s)
Número Básico de Reproducción , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/legislación & jurisprudencia , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Teorema de Bayes , Betacoronavirus , China/epidemiología , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Humanos , Japón/epidemiología , Modelos Teóricos , Pandemias , Distribución de Poisson , Cuarentena , República de Corea/epidemiología , Aislamiento Social , España/epidemiología
19.
Dtsch Arztebl Int ; 117(29-30): 493-499, 2020 Jul 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33087229

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Identifying regions with low life expectancy is important to policy makers, in particular for allocating resources in the health system. Life expectancy estimates for small regions are, however, often unreliable and lead to statistical uncertainties when the underlying populations are relatively small. METHODS: We combine the most recent German data available (2015-2017) with a Bayesian model that includes several methodological advances. This allows us to estimate male and female life expectancy with good precision for all 402 German districts and to quantify the uncertainty of those estimates. RESULTS: Across districts, life expectancy varies between 75.8 and 81.2 years for men and from 81.8 to 85.7 years for women. The spatial pattern is similar for women and men. Rural districts in eastern Germany and some districts of the Ruhr region have relatively low life expectancy. Districts with relatively high life expectancies cluster in Baden-Wuerttemberg and southern Bavaria. Exploratory analysis shows that average income, population density, and number of physicians per 100 000 inhabitants are not strongly correlated with life expectancy at district level. In contrast, indicators that point to particularly disadvantaged segments of the population (unemployment rate, welfare benefits) are better predictors of life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS: We do not find a consistent urban-rural gap in life expectancy. Our results suggest that policies that improve living standards for poorer segment of the population are the most likely to reduce the existing differences in life expectancy.


Asunto(s)
Renta , Esperanza de Vida , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Teorema de Bayes , Femenino , Alemania/epidemiología , Humanos , Masculino , Factores Socioeconómicos
20.
Lancet Public Health ; 5(11): e592-e603, 2020 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33120045

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: In many European countries, human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake among girls has remained below target levels, supporting the scope for vaccination of boys. We aimed to investigate if sex-neutral HPV vaccination can be considered cost-effective compared with girls-only vaccination at uptake levels equal to those among girls and under tender-based vaccination costs achieved throughout Europe. METHODS: We investigated the cost-effectiveness of sex-neutral HPV vaccination in European tender-based settings. We applied a Bayesian synthesis framework for health economic evaluation to 11 countries (Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Estonia, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden), accommodating country-specific information on key epidemiological and economic parameters, and on current HPV vaccination programmes. We used projections from three independently developed HPV transmission models to tailor region-specific herd effects. The main outcome measures in the comparison of sex-neutral with girls-only vaccination were cancer cases prevented and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), defined as the cost in international dollars (I$) per life-year gained. FINDINGS: The total number of cancer cases to be prevented by vaccinating girls at currently realised vaccine uptake varied from 318 (95% CI 197-405) per cohort of 200 000 preadolescents (100 000 girls plus 100 000 boys) in Croatia (under 20% uptake of the 9-valent vaccine) to 1904 (1741-2101) in Estonia (under 70% uptake of the 9-valent vaccine). Vaccinating boys at equal coverage increased these respective numbers by 168 (95% CI 121-213) in Croatia and 467 (391-587) in Estonia. Sex-neutral vaccination was likely to be cost-effective, with ICERs of sex-neutral compared with girls-only vaccination varying from I$4300 per life-year gained in Latvia (95% credibility interval 3450-5160; 40% uptake) to I$25 720 per life-year gained in Spain (21 380-30 330; 80% uptake). At uniform 80% uptake, a favourable cost-effectiveness profile was retained for most of the countries investigated (Austria, Belgium, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden). INTERPRETATION: Sex-neutral HPV vaccination is economically attractive in European tender-based settings. However, tendering mechanisms need to ensure that vaccination of boys will remain cost-effective at high vaccine uptake rates. FUNDING: European Commission 7th Framework Programme and WHO.


Asunto(s)
Análisis Costo-Beneficio/economía , Análisis Costo-Beneficio/estadística & datos numéricos , Infecciones por Papillomavirus/prevención & control , Vacunas contra Papillomavirus/economía , Vacunas contra Papillomavirus/uso terapéutico , Neoplasias del Cuello Uterino/prevención & control , Teorema de Bayes , Análisis Costo-Beneficio/métodos , Europa (Continente) , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Económicos , Infecciones por Papillomavirus/economía , Neoplasias del Cuello Uterino/economía
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