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1.
Braz. j. biol ; 84: e248656, 2024. tab, graf
Artículo en Inglés | LILACS, VETINDEX | ID: biblio-1345542

RESUMEN

Abstract Several species of Cichla successfully colonized lakes and reservoirs of Brazil, since the 1960's, causing serious damage to local wildlife. In this study, 135 peacock bass were collected in a reservoir complex in order to identify if they represented a single dominant species or multiple ones, as several Cichla species have been reported in the basin. Specimens were identified by color pattern, morphometric and meristic data, and using mitochondrial markers COI, 16S rDNA and Control Region (CR). Overlapping morphological data and similar coloration patterns prevented their identification using the taxonomic keys to species identification available in the literature. However, Bayesian and maximum likelihood from sequencing data demonstrated the occurrence of a single species, Cichla kelberi. A single haplotype was observed for the 16S and CR, while three were detected for COI, with a dominant haplotype present in 98.5% of the samples. The extreme low diversity of the transplanted C. kelberi evidenced a limited number of founding maternal lineages. The success of this colonization seems to rely mainly on abiotic factors, such as increased water transparency of lentic environments that favor visual predators that along with the absence of predators, have made C. kelberi a successful invader of these reservoirs.


Resumo Muitas espécies de Cichla colonizaram com sucesso lagos e reservatórios do Brasil desde os anos 1960, causando graves prejuízos à vida selvagem nesses locais. Neste estudo, 135 tucunarés foram coletados em um complexo de reservatórios a fim de identificar se representavam uma espécie dominante ou múltiplas espécies, uma vez que diversas espécies de Cichla foram registradas na bacia. Os espécimes foram identificados com base na coloração, dados morfométricos e merísticos, e por marcadores mitocondriais COI, 16S rDNA e Região Controle (RC). A sobreposição dos dados morfométricos e o padrão similar de coloração impediram a identificação utilizando as chaves de identificação disponíveis na literatura. Entretanto, as análises bayesiana e de máxima verossimilhança de dados moleculares demonstraram a ocorrência de uma única espécie, Cichla kelberi. Um único haplótipo foi observado para o 16S e RC, enquanto três foram detectados para o COI, com um haplótipo dominante presente em 98,5% das amostras. A baixa diversidade nos exemplares introduzidos de C. kelberi evidenciou um número limitado de linhagens maternas fundadoras. O sucesso da invasão parece depender de fatores abióticos, como a maior transparência da água de ambientes lênticos que favorece predadores visuais que, atrelado à ausência de predadores, fez do C. kelberi um invasor bem-sucedido nesses reservatórios.


Asunto(s)
Animales , Cíclidos/genética , Filogenia , Variación Genética/genética , Haplotipos/genética , Lagos , Teorema de Bayes
2.
Braz. j. biol ; 83: e252656, 2023. tab, graf
Artículo en Inglés | LILACS, VETINDEX | ID: biblio-1345534

RESUMEN

Abstract The genus Artemisia L. of the family Asteraceae is systematically very complex. The aim of this study was to evaluate taxonomic positions of taxa of the subgenus Artemisia belonging to the genus Artemisia in Turkey using some molecular techniques. In this molecular study, 44 individuals belong to 14 species of the subgenus Artemisia were examined. Analyses were performed on the combined dataset using maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference and Molecular parameters obtained from co-evaluations of sequences of the psbA-trnH, ITS and ETS regions of examined individuals were used in the phylogenetic tree drawing. According to the results of this study, two molecular groups have been formed based on the DNA sequence similarity of the species, but there are no obvious morphological characters corresponding to two molecular groups. There is no also agreement between the two molecular groups and the two morphological groups formed according to the hairiness condition of the receptacle of species. Due to the lack of molecular significance of their receptacles with or without hair, dividing of the subgenus Artemisia species into new subgenera or sections was not considered appropriate. Likewise, it has been found that with or without hair on the corolla lobes of the central hermaphrodite disc flowers have no molecular significance. It was found that there were no gene flow and hybridization between the 14 species of the subgenus Artemisia and these 14 species were found completed their speciation. This study is important as it is the first molecular based study relating with belong to subgenus Artemisia species growing naturally in Turkey. In addition, new haplotypes related to the populations of Turkey belonging to the subgenus Artemisia taxa were reported by us for the first time and added to the GenBank database.


Resumo O gênero Artemisia L. da família Asteraceae é sistematicamente muito complexo. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar as posições taxonômicas de táxons do subgênero Artemisia pertencentes ao gênero Artemisia na Turquia usando algumas técnicas moleculares. Neste estudo molecular, 44 indivíduos pertencentes a 14 espécies do subgênero Artemisia foram examinados. As análises foram realizadas no conjunto de dados combinado usando máxima parcimônia, máxima verossimilhança e inferência bayesiana e parâmetros moleculares obtidos a partir de coavaliações de sequências das regiões psbA-trnH, ITS e ETS de indivíduos examinados foram usados ​​no desenho da árvore filogenética. De acordo com os resultados deste estudo, dois grupos moleculares foram formados com base na similaridade da sequência de DNA das espécies, mas não há caracteres morfológicos óbvios correspondentes a dois grupos moleculares. Também não há concordância entre os dois grupos moleculares e os dois grupos morfológicos formados de acordo com a condição de pilosidade do receptáculo da espécie. Devido à falta de significado molecular de seus receptáculos com ou sem cabelo, a divisão das espécies do subgênero Artemisia em novos subgêneros ou seções não foi considerada apropriada. Da mesma forma, verificou-se que com ou sem cabelo nos lobos da corola das flores do disco hermafrodita central não tem significado molecular. Constatou-se que não houve fluxo gênico e hibridização entre as 14 espécies do subgênero Artemisia e essas 14 espécies concluíram sua especiação. Este estudo é importante porque é o primeiro estudo de base molecular relacionado com espécies pertencentes ao subgênero Artemisia crescendo naturalmente na Turquia. Além disso, novos haplótipos relacionados às populações da Turquia pertencentes ao subgênero Artemisia taxa foram relatados por nós pela primeira vez e adicionados ao banco de dados do GenBank.


Asunto(s)
Humanos , Artemisia/genética , Filogenia , Turquia , Teorema de Bayes , Hibridación Genética
3.
Braz. j. biol ; 83: e249756, 2023. tab, graf
Artículo en Inglés | LILACS, VETINDEX | ID: biblio-1345533

RESUMEN

Abstract Ri chicken is the most popular backyard chicken breed in Vietnam, but little is known about the growth curve of this breed. This study compared the performances of models with three parameters (Gompertz, Brody, and Logistic) and models containing four parameters (Richards, Bridges, and Janoschek) for describing the growth of Ri chicken. The bodyweight of Ri chicken was recorded weekly from week 1 to week 19. Growth models were fitted using minpack.lm package in R software and Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and root mean square error (RMSE) were used for model comparison. Based on these criteria, the models having four parameters showed better performance than the ones with three parameters, and the Richards model was the best one for males and females. The lowest and highest value of asymmetric weights (α) were obtained by Bridges and Brody models for each of sexes, respectively. Age and weight estimated by the Richard model were 8.46 and 7.51 weeks and 696.88 and 487.58 g for males and for females, respectively. Differences in the growth curves were observed between males and female chicken. Overall, the results suggested using the Richards model for describing the growth curve of Ri chickens. Further studies on the genetics and genomics of the obtained growth parameters are required before using them for the genetic improvement of Ri chickens.


Resumo O frango Ri é a raça de frango de quintal mais popular do Vietnã, mas pouco se sabe sobre a curva de crescimento dessa raça. Este estudo comparou o desempenho de modelos com três parâmetros (Gompertz, Brody e Logistic) e modelos contendo quatro parâmetros (Richards, Bridges e Janoschek) para descrever o crescimento do frango Ri. O peso corporal do frango Ri foi registrado semanalmente da semana 1 à semana 19. Os modelos de crescimento foram ajustados usando o pacote minpack.lm no software R e o critério de informação de Akaike (AIC); critério de informação bayesiano (BIC) e erro quadrático médio (RMSE) foram usados ​​para comparação de modelos. Com base nesses critérios, os modelos com quatro parâmetros apresentaram melhor desempenho do que os com três parâmetros, sendo o modelo de Richards o melhor para homens e mulheres. O menor e o maior valor dos pesos assimétricos (α) foram obtidos pelos modelos Bridges e Brody para cada um dos sexos, respectivamente. A idade e o peso estimados pelo modelo de Richard foram de 8,46 e 7,51 semanas e 696,88 e 487,58 g para homens e mulheres, respectivamente. Diferenças nas curvas de crescimento foram observadas entre frangos machos e fêmeas. No geral, os resultados sugeriram o uso do modelo de Richards para descrever a curva de crescimento de frangos Ri. Mais estudos sobre a genética e genômica dos parâmetros de crescimento obtidos são necessários antes de usá-los para o melhoramento genético de frangos Ri.


Asunto(s)
Humanos , Animales , Masculino , Femenino , Pollos , Modelos Teóricos , Peso Corporal , Teorema de Bayes , Asiáticos , Modelos Biológicos
4.
J Environ Sci (China) ; 125: 101-111, 2023 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36375897

RESUMEN

The short-term impacts of urban air pollution on the platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) remain obscure. In this study, we included 3487 urban adults from the Wuhan-Zhuhai cohort. Individual inhalation exposure to air pollutants was estimated by combining participants' daily breath volume and ambient concentrations of six air pollutants (including fine particulate matter (PM2.5), inhalable particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3)). The cumulative impacts were assessed by applying lag structures of up to 7 days before the survey date. Associations of air pollutants with PLR and NLR were assessed using a linear mixed model and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) model. We found that PLR was negatively related to PM2.5 (lag02-lag06), PM10 (lag02-lag07), NO2 (lag02-lag07), and SO2 (lag03-lag05) and NLR was negatively related to PM10 (lag05 and lag07). In the BKMR model, a negative joint association between the six-air-pollutant mixture and PLR and NLR was observed, whereas PM10 and NO2 appeared to be more important than the other pollutants in the mixture. The negative impact of air pollutants was stronger in males, participants with lower body mass index (< 24 kg/m2), those cooking meals at home, drinkers, and non-exercisers. In conclusion, short-term exposure to air pollutants is significantly related to PLR and NLR in peripheral blood. PLR and NLR may provide new insight into the molecular mechanism underlying the adverse health impact of air pollutants.


Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Ozono , Humanos , Adulto , Masculino , Dióxido de Nitrógeno/análisis , Neutrófilos/química , Teorema de Bayes , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Material Particulado/análisis , Ozono/análisis , Dióxido de Azufre/análisis , China , Linfocitos , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis
5.
J Environ Sci (China) ; 125: 641-649, 2023 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36375946

RESUMEN

Exposure to endocrine disruptors (EDCs) could disrupt thyroid hormone homeostasis. However, human epidemiological studies reported inconsistent observations, and scarce information on the effect of a mixture of chemicals. The aim of the present study was to examine the associations of multiple chemicals with thyroid hormones among adults from China. We measured serum levels of thyroid hormones and urinary levels of 11 EDCs, including six phthalate metabolites, bisphenol A (BPA), bisphenol F (BPF), bisphenol S (BPS), perchlorate, and thiocyanate among 177 healthy adults without occupational exposure. Associations of multiple urinary analytes with serum thyroid hormones were examined by performing general linear regression analysis and bayesian kernal machine regression analysis. These EDCs were detected in almost all samples. After adjusting for various covariates, we observed only BPF significantly associated with total thyroxin (TT4) (ß=-0.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) [-0.41, -0.14]), total triiodothyronine (TT3) (ß=-0.02 95% CI [-0.03, -0.01]), free T4 (fT4) (ß=-0.02, 95% CI [-0.03, -0.01]), and free T3 (fT3) (ß=-0.04, 95% CI [-0.07, -0.01]), and mono-(2-ethyl-5-oxohexyl) phthalate (MEOHP) and monoethyl phthalate (MEP) positively associated with TT4 (ß=0.24, 95% CI [0.01, 0.48]) and fT4 (ß=0.02, 95% CI [0.01, 0.04]), respectively. Moreover, we observed significant dose-response relationships between TT4 and the mixture of 11 EDCs, and BPF was the main contributor to the mixture effect, suggesting the priority of potential effect of BPF on disrupting thyroid function under a real scenario of human exposure to multiple EDCs. Our findings supported the hypothesis that human exposure to low levels of EDCs could alter thyroid hormones homeostasis among non-occupational healthy adults.


Asunto(s)
Disruptores Endocrinos , Ácidos Ftálicos , Humanos , Adulto , Disruptores Endocrinos/toxicidad , Estudios Transversales , Teorema de Bayes , Ácidos Ftálicos/toxicidad , Hormonas Tiroideas
6.
Food Chem ; 403: 134403, 2023 Mar 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36191419

RESUMEN

The objectives of this study were to explore the use of Fourier-transform infrared (FITR) spectroscopy on 458 goat milk samples for predicting cheese-making traits, and to test the effect of the farm variability on their prediction accuracy. Calibration equations were developed using a Bayesian approach with three different scenarios: i) a random cross-validation (CV) [80% calibration (CAL); 20% validation (VAL) set], ii) a stratified CV [(SCV), 13 farms used as CAL, and the remaining one as VAL set], and iii) a SCV where 20% of the goats randomly selected from the VAL farm were included in the CAL set (SCV80). The best prediction performance was obtained for cheese yield solids, justifying for its practical application at population level. Overall results were similar to or outperformed those reported for bovine milk. Our results suggest considering specific procedures for calibration development to propose reliable tools applicable along the dairy goat chain.


Asunto(s)
Queso , Humanos , Animales , Queso/análisis , Leche/química , Teorema de Bayes , Cabras , Espectroscopía Infrarroja por Transformada de Fourier
7.
Methods Mol Biol ; 2426: 91-117, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36308686

RESUMEN

Protein quantification for shotgun proteomics is a complicated process where errors can be introduced in each of the steps. Triqler is a Python package that estimates and integrates errors of the different parts of the label-free protein quantification pipeline into a single Bayesian model. Specifically, it weighs the quantitative values by the confidence we have in the correctness of the corresponding PSM. Furthermore, it treats missing values in a way that reflects their uncertainty relative to observed values. Finally, it combines these error estimates in a single differential abundance FDR that not only reflects the errors and uncertainties in quantification but also in identification. In this tutorial, we show how to (1) generate input data for Triqler from quantification packages such as MaxQuant and Quandenser, (2) run Triqler and what the different options are, (3) interpret the results, (4) investigate the posterior distributions of a protein of interest in detail, and (5) verify that the hyperparameter estimations are sensible.


Asunto(s)
Proteínas , Proteómica , Teorema de Bayes , Incertidumbre , Proteómica/métodos , Programas Informáticos
8.
Methods Mol Biol ; 2426: 131-140, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36308688

RESUMEN

Imputing missing values is a common practice in label-free quantitative proteomics. Imputation replaces a missing value by a user-defined one. However, the imputation itself is not optimally considered downstream of the imputation process. In particular, imputed datasets are considered as if they had always been complete. The uncertainty due to the imputation is not properly taken into account. Hence, the mi4p package provides a more accurate statistical analysis of multiple-imputed datasets. A rigorous multiple imputation methodology is implemented, leading to a less biased estimation of parameters and their variability, thanks to Rubin's rules. The imputation-based peptide's intensities' variance estimator is then moderated using Bayesian hierarchical models. This estimator is finally included in moderated t-test statistics to provide differential analyses results.


Asunto(s)
Proteómica , Proyectos de Investigación , Teorema de Bayes , Incertidumbre
9.
Methods Mol Biol ; 2426: 141-162, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36308689

RESUMEN

seaMass is an R package for protein-level quantification, normalization, and differential expression analysis of proteomics mass spectrometry data after peptide identification, protein grouping, and feature-level quantification. Using the concept of a blocked experimental design, seaMass can analyze all common discovery proteomics paradigms, including label-free (e.g., Waters Progenesis input), SILAC (e.g., MaxQuant input), isotope labelling (e.g., SCIEX ProteinPilot iTraq and Thermo ProteomeDiscoverer TMT input), and data-independent acquisition (e.g., OpenSWATH-PyProphet input), and is able to scale to study with hundreds of assays or more. By utilizing hierarchical Bayesian modelling, seaMass assesses the quantification reliability of each feature and peptide across assays so that only those in consensus influence the resulting protein group quantification strongly. Similarly, unexplained variation in each individual assay is captured, providing both a metric for quality control and automatic down-weighting of suspect assays. To achieve this, each protein group-level quantification outputted by seaMass is accompanied by the standard deviation of its posterior uncertainty. Moreover, seaMass integrates a flexible differential expression analysis subsystem with false discovery rate control based on the popular MCMCglmm package for Bayesian mixed-effects modelling, and also provides uncertainty-aware principal components analysis. We provide a description for using seaMass to perform an end-to-end analysis using a real dataset associated with a published clinical proteomics study.


Asunto(s)
Proteínas , Proteómica , Proteómica/métodos , Incertidumbre , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Teorema de Bayes , Péptidos , Proteoma/metabolismo
10.
Chemosphere ; 310: 136742, 2023 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36209856

RESUMEN

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic chemicals that are the dominant contaminant in the Upper Hudson River (UHR) in New York State where two General Electric (GE) plants historically discharged PCBs to the river. Portions of the UHR were dredged from 2009 to 2015 to address PCB contamination. In 2017, the first post-dredging survey of yearling feeder fish and sediment PCB contamination was conducted to establish a baseline for the recovery of the river. Prior analysis of the sediment data from the 2017 survey indicated that ∼2% of the PCBs in the surface sediment were higher in molecular weight than the formulation used by GE and therefore arose from non-GE sources. In this work, the fish PCB data from the 2017 survey were analyzed using Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF). Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) was used to estimate PCB concentrations in the sediment at the locations where fish were collected. The results suggest that PCBs that are the products of microbial dechlorination bioaccumulate in the fish and represent 7% of the PCB mass in the fish data set. Further, the results suggest that about 13% of the PCBs in the fish may have come from non-GE sources. This is higher than the percentage of non-GE PCBs in the sediment, but can be explained by the higher molecular weight of the non-GE mixture which causes it to bioaccumulate more effectively than GE PCBs. Concentrations of the non-GE PCBs averaged about 240 ppb wet weight (whole body) in yearling feeder fish. The remedial goals range from 50 to 400 ppb ww in fillet for fish including piscivorous species that are likely to have higher PCB concentrations than feeder fish.


Asunto(s)
Bifenilos Policlorados , Contaminantes Químicos del Agua , Animales , Bifenilos Policlorados/análisis , Teorema de Bayes , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Contaminantes Químicos del Agua/análisis , Ríos/química , Peces
11.
Chemosphere ; 310: 136747, 2023 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36216113

RESUMEN

Dissolved heavy metals (DHMs) contamination has raised global concern for ecological and human health development. Weathering of sulfide-bearing ore metals can produce acidic, sulfate-rich solutions in the presence of water and oxygen (O2), and DHMs are released to deprave the river water quality. Sulfur and oxygen isotope signatures (δ34SSO4 and δ18OSO4) could identify this pyrite-derived sulfate; however, it is yet not well known whether the δ34SSO4 and δ18OSO4 values could limit the DHMs sources and illustrate anthropogenic impacts on DHMs along the river corridor. We tried to solve this problem through field works in the Luohe River and Yihe River, two tributaries of the Yellow River, China, where metal sulfide mine activities mostly occurred upstream, but agricultural and domestic behaviors concentrated in the lower plain reaches. In the Luohe River upper areas, δ34SSO4 values had negative correlations with concentrations of cadmium (Cd) (p < 0.01), nickel (Ni) (p < 0.05), molybdenum (Mo) (p < 0.01), uranium (U) (p < 0.01), and SO42- (p < 0.01). However, as the δ34SSO4 values increased downstream in the Luohe River, concentrations of copper (Cu) (p < 0.05), mercury (Hg) (p < 0.05), Ni (p < 0.05), and SO42- (p < 0.01) simultaneously elevated. The Bayesian Isotope Mixing Model (BIMM) results via δ34SSO4 values demonstrated 64.3%-65.3% of SO42- from acid mine drainage (AMD) in the Luohe River's upper reaches and 63.5%-67.7% in the Yihe River's upper reaches, and about 33% from sewage and industrial effluents in the Luohe River's lower reaches and 27% in Yihe River's lower reaches. Our results confirmed the different anthropogenic impacts on the DHMs concentrations in Luohe River and Yihe River and provided a robust method for DHMs sources appointment and pollution management in river systems.


Asunto(s)
Mercurio , Metales Pesados , Contaminantes Químicos del Agua , Humanos , Monitoreo del Ambiente/métodos , Contaminantes Químicos del Agua/análisis , Teorema de Bayes , Efectos Antropogénicos , Metales Pesados/análisis , Sulfatos/análisis , Isótopos de Oxígeno/análisis , Sulfuros , China
12.
Sci Total Environ ; 857(Pt 2): 159450, 2023 Jan 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36252672

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: African Americans (AAs) experience high rates of adverse pregnancy outcomes relative to Whites. Differential in utero exposure to environmental chemicals and psychosocial stressors may explain some of the observed health disparities, as exposures to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and experiences of discrimination have been linked to adverse birth outcomes. Few studies have examined chemicals and non-chemical stressors together as an exposure mixture, which may better reflect real-life exposure patterns. Here, we adapted methods designed for the analysis of exposure mixtures to examine joint effects of PFAS and psychosocial stress on birth outcomes among AAs. METHODS: 348 participants from the Atlanta African American Maternal-Child cohort were included in this study. Four PFAS were measured in first trimester serum samples. Self-report questionnaires were administered during the first trimester and were used to assess psychosocial stress (perceived stress, depression, anxiety, gendered racial stress). Quantile g-computation and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) were used to estimate the joint effects between PFAS and psychosocial stressors on gestational age at delivery and birthweight for gestational age z-scores. All models were adjusted for maternal education, maternal age, parity, and any alcohol, tobacco and marijuana use. RESULTS: Our analytic sample included a socioeconomically diverse group of pregnant women, with 79 % receiving public health insurance. In quantile g-computation models, a simultaneous one-quartile increase in all PFAS, perceived stress, depression, anxiety, and gendered racial stress was associated with a reduction in birthweight z-scores (mean %change per quartile increase = -0.24, 95 % confidence interval = -0.43, -0.06). BKMR similarly showed that increasing all exposures in the mixture was associated with a modest decrease in birthweight z-scores, but not a reduced length of gestation. DISCUSSION: Using methods designed for analyzing exposure mixtures, we found that a simultaneous increase in in utero PFAS and psychosocial stressors was associated with reduced birthweight for gestational age z-scores.


Asunto(s)
Ácidos Alcanesulfónicos , Contaminantes Ambientales , Fluorocarburos , Humanos , Embarazo , Femenino , Afroamericanos , Peso al Nacer , Resultado del Embarazo/epidemiología , Teorema de Bayes , Contaminantes Ambientales/toxicidad
13.
Sci Total Environ ; 856(Pt 1): 158959, 2023 Jan 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36155036

RESUMEN

Ecological models help provide forecasts of ecosystem responses to natural and anthropogenic stresses. However, their ability to create reliable predictions requires forecasts with track records sufficiently long to build confidence, skill assessments, and treating uncertainty quantitatively. We use Lake Erie harmful algal blooms as a case study to help formalize ecological forecasting. Key challenges for models include uncertainty in the deterministic structure of the load-bloom relationship and the need to assess alternative drivers (e.g., biologically available phosphorus load, spring load, longer term cumulative load) with a larger dataset. We enhanced a Bayesian model considering new information and an expanded data set, test it through cross validation and blind forecasts, quantify and discuss its uncertainties, and apply it for assessing historical and future scenarios. Allowing a segmented relationship between bloom size and spring load indicates that loading above 0.15 Gg/month will have a substantially higher marginal impact on bloom size. The new model explains 84 % of interannual variability (9.09 Gg RMSE) when calibrated to the 19-year data set and 66 % of variability in cross validation (12.58 Gg RMSE). Blind forecasts explain 84 % of HAB variability between 2014 and 2020, which is substantially better than the actual forecast track record (R2 = 0.32) over this same period. Because of internal phosphorus recycling, represented by the long-term cumulative load, it could take over a decade for HABs to fully respond to loading reductions, depending on the pace of those reductions. Thus, the desired speed and endpoint of the lake's recovery should be considered when updating and adaptively managing load reduction targets. Results are discussed in the context of ecological forecasting best pactices: incorporate new knowledge and data in model construction; account for multiple sources of uncertainty; evaluate predictive skill through validation and hindcasting; and answer management questions related to both short-term forecasts and long-term scenarios.


Asunto(s)
Floraciones de Algas Nocivas , Lagos , Ecosistema , Teorema de Bayes , Fósforo
14.
Sci Total Environ ; 856(Pt 1): 159014, 2023 Jan 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36162568

RESUMEN

The cardiometabolic effects of air pollution in the context of mixtures and the underlying mechanisms remain not fully understood. This study aims to investigate the joint effect of air pollutant mixtures on a broad range of cardiometabolic parameters, examine the susceptibility of obese individuals, and determine the role of circulating fatty acids. In this panel study, metabolically healthy normal-weight (MH-NW, n = 49) and obese (MHO, n = 39) adults completed three longitudinal visits (257 person-visits in total). Personal exposure levels of PM2.5, PM10, O3, NO2, SO2, CO and BC were estimated based on fixed-site monitoring data, time-activity logs and infiltration factor method. Blood pressure, glycemic homeostasis, lipid profiles, systematic inflammation and coagulation biomarkers were measured. Targeted metabolomics was used to quantify twenty-eight plasma free fatty acids (FFAs). Bayesian kernel machine regression models were applied to establish the exposure-response relationships and identify key pollutants. Significant joint effects of measured air pollutants on systematic inflammation and coagulation biomarkers were observed in the MHO group, instead of the MH-NW group. Lipid profiles showed the most significant changes in both groups and O3 contributed the most to the total effect. Specific FFA patterns were identified, and de novo lipogenesis (DNL)-related pattern was most closely related to blood lipid profiles. In particular, interaction analysis suggested that DNL-related FFA pattern augmented the effects of O3 on triglyceride (TG, Pinteraction = 0.040), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C, Pinteraction = 0.106) and TG/HDL-C (Pinteraction = 0.020) in the MHO group but not MH-NW group. This modification was further confirmed by interaction analysis with estimated activity of SCD1, a key enzyme in the DNL pathway. Therefore, despite being metabolically healthy, obese subjects have a higher cardiometabolic susceptibility to air pollution, especially O3, and the DNL pathway may represent an intrinsic driver of lipid susceptibility. This study provides new insights into the cardiometabolic susceptibility of obese individuals to air pollution.


Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Adulto , Humanos , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/efectos adversos , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Ácidos Grasos no Esterificados , Material Particulado/efectos adversos , Material Particulado/análisis , Teorema de Bayes , Contaminación del Aire/efectos adversos , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Obesidad/epidemiología , Lípidos/análisis , Biomarcadores/análisis , Inflamación
15.
Sci Total Environ ; 856(Pt 1): 159050, 2023 Jan 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36174683

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Evidence from in vitro and rodent studies suggests that organophosphate esters (OPEs) may disrupt sex steroid hormone homeostasis, but no human studies, to date, have examined the effects of in utero exposure to OPEs on offspring reproductive development. OBJECTIVE: Anogenital distance (AGD) is a sensitive biomarker of fetal hormonal milieu and has been used to assess reproductive toxicity. We evaluated the longitudinal effects of prenatal exposure to OPEs on the AGD of offspring from birth to 4 years. METHODS: Based on Shanghai-Minhang Birth Cohort Study, pregnant women provided urine samples at a gestational age of 12-16 weeks, which were analyzed for eight OPE metabolites. AGD was measured in offspring at birth and 0.5, 1, and 4 years of age. We used generalized estimating equations (GEE) and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) models to estimate the associations of prenatal exposure to individual OPE metabolites and OPE mixtures with AGD stratified by sex. RESULTS: A total of 733 mother-infant pairs were analyzed. Prenatal exposure to diphenyl phosphate and bis-(2-ethylhexyl) phosphate was associated with decreased AGD in boys in GEE models. Bis-(1-chloro-2-propyl) phosphate (BCIPP) showed a similar but marginally significant effect. Prenatal exposure to most OPE metabolites was associated with decreased AGD in girls, with the most profound association observed for bis (2-butoxyethyl) phosphate (BBOEP) and alkyl-OPEs. The OPE mixture was also inversely associated with AGD in both sexes. The single-exposure effects of BKMR models were largely consistent with those observed in the GEE models. In addition, alkyl-OPEs, particularly BBOEP, contributed the most to the decreased AGD in girls, while BCIPP contributed the most to the decreased AGD in boys. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first human evidence that prenatal exposure to OPEs is associated with decreased AGD in offspring. The magnitude of these effects may vary depending on the structure of OPEs.


Asunto(s)
Efectos Tardíos de la Exposición Prenatal , Masculino , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Humanos , Femenino , Embarazo , Efectos Tardíos de la Exposición Prenatal/inducido químicamente , Estudios de Cohortes , Teorema de Bayes , China , Organofosfatos/toxicidad , Organofosfatos/orina , Fosfatos
16.
J Affect Disord ; 320: 742-750, 2023 Jan 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36179781

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: First responders are routinely and regularly exposed to traumatic events that can clinically manifest with a symptom constellation of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), generalized anxiety, depression, and suicidality. METHODS: We used network analysis to examine baseline data from treatment seeking first responders (n = 308) to examine the interrelatedness of those constructs, including a measure of resilience. We estimated two models: a regularized partial correlation network and a Bayesian Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). RESULTS: The models reveal converging evidence highlighting the central role of negative alterations in cognitions and mood PTSD cluster along with affective depression. These nodes did not significantly differ, though they were among the strongest in the partial correlation network and shared the most variance with the other nodes. The DAG results suggested that the negative alterations in cognitions and mood PTSD cluster predicted downstream constructs of affective depression; intrusion, hyperarousal, and avoidance PTSD clusters; and resilience. Only resilience and affective depression exhibited direct effects on suicidality. Both somatic depression and suicidality were endogenous endpoints in the DAG. Resilience exhibited an inverse path to suicide. However, resilience was relatively independent of the other constructs in the models and the DAG suggested that it was a consequence of PTSD related distress. LIMITATIONS: The data is cross-sectional in nature that should be followed up in longitudinal studies. CONCLUSION: Findings are discussed in respect to the role of distress and emotional dysregulation as common factors underlying a broad range of internalizing problems.


Asunto(s)
Socorristas , Trastornos por Estrés Postraumático , Suicidio , Humanos , Estudios Transversales , Teorema de Bayes , Trastornos por Estrés Postraumático/psicología
17.
Sci Total Environ ; 856(Pt 2): 159234, 2023 Jan 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36208764

RESUMEN

Anthropogenic reactive nitrogen emissions have a significant impact on atmospheric chemical composition and earth surface ecosystem. As one of the most important sinks of atmospheric nitrogen, the wet deposition of nitrate (rainwater NO3-) has been widely concerned. Yet, the sources and transformation processes of wet deposited NO3- were not well revealed in megacity during rainy season in the context of global climate change. Here, we investigated the concentrations of nitrogen components and dual isotopes of rainwater nitrate collected in Beijing during July to August 2021 (rainy season). The main findings showed that the concentrations of NH4+-N, NO3--N, and NO2--N ranged 0.5- 6.7 mg L-1, 0.3- 4.5 mg L-1, and 0.05- 0.18 mg L-1, respectively, with the average relative percentages of 69 %, 29 %, and 2 %. The stoichiometry analysis of characteristic ion ratios indicated that the contribution of municipal wastes and agricultural sources to rainwater NH4+-N is relatively significant, while traffics were the major contributor of NO3--N instead of the fixed emission. Rainwater δ15N-NO3- and δ18O-NO3- presented slightly 15N-depleted characteristic compared to previous studies with the average values of -3.9 ± 3.1 ‰ and 58.7 ± 12.6 ‰. These isotope compositions suggesting an origin of rainwater NO3- from the mixing of multi-sources and was mainly generated via the pathway of OH radical oxidization. Further source apportionment of rainwater NO3- by Bayesian mixing model evaluated that traffic (30.3 %) and soil (30.3 %) emissions contributed mostly to NO3-, while the contribution of biomass burning (18.8 %) and coal combustion (20.6 %) were relatively lower. This study highlighted the important role of dual isotopes in rainwater nitrate source identification and formation processes in megacity.


Asunto(s)
Nitratos , Contaminantes Químicos del Agua , Nitratos/análisis , Estaciones del Año , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Beijing , Ecosistema , Contaminantes Químicos del Agua/análisis , Isótopos de Nitrógeno/análisis , Teorema de Bayes , Óxidos de Nitrógeno/análisis , China
18.
J Environ Manage ; 325(Pt A): 116551, 2023 Jan 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36283198

RESUMEN

The rapid increase in urbanization and intensive coal mining activities have accelerated the deterioration of surface water quality. Environmental problems caused by the accumulation of nitrate and sulfate from natural, urban, and agricultural sources have attracted extensive attention. Information on nitrate and sulfate sources and their transformations is crucial for understanding the nitrogen and sulfur cycles in surface water. In this study, we monitored nitrate and sulfate in three representative rivers in mining cities in northern China. The main pollution sources and biogeochemical processes were identified by using stable isotopes (δD, δ18OH2O, δ15N, δ18ONO3, δ34S and δ18OSO4) and hydrochemistry. The contribution of natural and anthropogenic sources was quantitatively estimated based on a Bayesian mixed model. The results indicated a large variation in sulfate and nitrate sources between the different rivers. Nitrate in the Tuohe River mainly derived from manure/sewage (57.9%) and soil N (26.9%), while sulfate mainly derived from manure/sewage (41.7%) and evaporite dissolution (26.8%). For the Suihe River, nitrate was primarily sourced from chemical fertilizer (37.9%) and soil nitrogen (34.8%), while sulfate was mainly sourced from manure/sewage (33.1%) and chemical fertilizer (21.4%). For the Huihe River, nitrate mainly derived from mine drainage (56.6%) and manure/sewage (30.6%), while sulfate predominantly originated from mine drainage (58.3%) and evaporite dissolution (12.9%). Microbial nitrification was the major pathway for the migration and transformation of nitrate in the surface water. However, denitrification and bacterial sulfate reduction (BSR) did not play a significant role as aerobic conditions prevailed. In this study, we elucidated the sources and transformation mechanisms of nitrate and sulfate. Additionally, we provided a reference for formulating a comprehensive strategy for effective management and remediation of surface water contaminated with nitrate and sulfate in mining cities.


Asunto(s)
Nitratos , Contaminantes Químicos del Agua , Nitratos/análisis , Fertilizantes/análisis , Sulfatos , Aguas del Alcantarillado , Estiércol/análisis , Monitoreo del Ambiente/métodos , Teorema de Bayes , Contaminantes Químicos del Agua/análisis , Isótopos de Nitrógeno/análisis , Isótopos de Oxígeno/análisis , Ríos , Nitrógeno/análisis , Suelo , Óxidos de Nitrógeno , China
19.
Sci Total Environ ; 855: 158852, 2023 Jan 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36122707

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Few studies have investigated the adverse effects of preconception phthalate (PAE) exposure on birth weight in couples receiving assisted reproductive technology (ART) compared to naturally conceived newborns. OBJECTIVES: We examined the association between parental preconception/prenatal urinary phthalate exposure and low birth weight (LBW) risk in couples who conceived using ART or naturally. METHODS: From the Jiangsu Birth Cohort Study (China), we recruited 544 couples who conceived after infertility treatment and 940 couples who conceived naturally and gave birth to a singleton infant between November 2014 and December 2019. Seventeen metabolites of phthalate and three metabolites of phthalate alternatives were analyzed in parental spot urine samples. Clinical data were collected from medical records. We used generalized linear models, elastic net regression, Bayesian kernel machine regression, and quantile-based g-computation to examine the individual and joint effects of parental phthalate exposure on birth weight and LBW risk ratios (RR). RESULTS: The relationship between parental phthalate exposure and birth weight was consistent between ART and natural conception. Maternal exposure to mono-ethyl phthalate and mono-carboxyisooctyl phthalate was associated with an increased risk of LBW in ART-conceived infants (RR = 1.27; 95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.03, 1.56; and RR = 1.31; 95 % CI: 1.03, 1.67, respectively). In contrast, in the spontaneously conceived infants, higher paternal prenatal concentrations of mono-benzyl phthalate and mono-carboxyisononyl phthalate were associated with a 40 % and 53 % increase in LBW risk, respectively. Exposure to PAE mixtures was associated with LBW in ART-conceived infants, with the effects primarily driven by di-ethyl phthalate, benzylbutyl phthalate, and di-isononyl phthalate metabolites. Sex-specific LBW was observed, with females appearing to be more susceptible than males. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal preconception and paternal prenatal exposure to phthalates were associated with increased risk of LBW in infants. Compared with natural conception, ART-conceived fetuses were more sensitive to PAE mixtures, which requires further attention.


Asunto(s)
Cohorte de Nacimiento , Ácidos Ftálicos , Humanos , Recién Nacido , Embarazo , Masculino , Lactante , Femenino , Peso al Nacer , Estudios Prospectivos , Estudios de Cohortes , Teorema de Bayes , Ácidos Ftálicos/orina , Recién Nacido de Bajo Peso , Técnicas Reproductivas Asistidas
20.
Sci Total Environ ; 855: 158882, 2023 Jan 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36155031

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Endometriosis affects up to 10 % of women of reproductive age and can lead to infertility. Research investigating whether combined exposure to arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb) and mercury (Hg) is related to an increased risk of endometriosis, especially using different biological samples to validate the association, is very limited. OBJECTIVE: This investigation aimed to evaluate the associations between the concentrations of As, Cd, Pb and Hg in blood and follicular fluid and the risk of endometriosis. METHODS: A total of 609 endometriosis cases and controls seen at the reproductive center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University in Hefei, China, between April 2020 and December 2021 were included in our study. Blood (217 cases and 234 controls) and follicular fluid (182 cases and 203 controls) samples were collected from these subjects. The concentrations of Cd, Hg, As and Pb in the blood and follicular fluid were determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Unconditional logistic regression models were used to assess the associations between Cd, Hg, As or Pb levels and the risk of endometriosis; Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) was used to evaluate the combined effect of metals on the risk of endometriosis. RESULTS: We found significant associations between blood concentrations of As (highest vs. lowest tertile: aOR = 5.53, 95 % CI: 2.97, 10.30), Cd (second vs. lowest tertile: aOR = 1.96, 95 % CI: 1.07, 3.58; highest vs. lowest tertile: aOR = 3.21, 95 % CI: 1.79, 5.77), Pb (highest vs. lowest tertile: aOR = 2.73, 95 % CI: 1.56, 4.78) and Hg (high-level group vs. low-level group: aOR = 13.10, 95 % CI: 6.74, 25.44; second vs. lowest tertile: aOR = 15.27, 95 % CI: 4.96, 46.97; highest vs. lowest tertile: aOR = 35.66, 95 % CI: 11.99, 106.08) and increased risk of endometriosis adjusting for confounders. Follicular fluid As (highest vs. lowest tertile: aOR = 2.42, 95 % CI: 1.35, 4.33), Hg (highest vs. lowest tertile: aOR = 1.86, 95 % CI: 1.05, 3.29), Cd (second vs. lowest tertile: aOR = 2.45, 95 % CI: 1.29, 4.65; highest vs. lowest tertile: aOR = 3.12, 95 % CI: 1.67, 5.83), and Pb (second vs. lowest tertile: aOR = 1.97, 95 % CI: 1.11, 3.52) concentrations were positively associated with endometriosis risk. The BKMR analyses showed linear associations between the metal mixtures and the risk of endometriosis. Both in blood and in follicular fluid, As exhibited the highest contribution. CONCLUSION: The data from this study suggest that toxic metals, individually and as a mixture, play a role in the risk of endometriosis, thus providing a novel idea for endometriosis prevention.


Asunto(s)
Arsénico , Endometriosis , Mercurio , Metales Pesados , Humanos , Femenino , Líquido Folicular , Cadmio , Endometriosis/inducido químicamente , Endometriosis/epidemiología , Teorema de Bayes , Plomo , Intoxicación por Metales Pesados
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