Return and volatility transmission between oil price shocks and agricultural commodities.

This paper studies the connectedness between oil price shocks and agricultural commodities. Our sample period ranges from January 2002 to July 2020, covering the three global crises; Global Financial Crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis and Covid-19 pandemic crisis. We employ Granger causality tests, and the static and dynamic connectedness spillover index methodology. We find that the shocks in oil prices are Granger-caused mainly by price changes of grains, live cattle, and wheat, while supply shock granger causes variations mostly in grain prices. We find that, from the point of view of static connectedness, for both, price and volatility spillovers, the livestock is the largest transmitter, while the lean hogs are the major receiver. Our dynamic analysis evidences that connectedness increases during the financial crisis period. Our results are potentially useful for investors, portfolios managers and policy makers.

Abrupt increase in harvested forest area over Europe after 2015.

Forests provide a series of ecosystem services that are crucial to our society. In the European Union (EU), forests account for approximately 38% of the total land surface1. These forests are important carbon sinks, and their conservation efforts are vital for the EU's vision of achieving climate neutrality by 20502. However, the increasing demand for forest services and products, driven by the bioeconomy, poses challenges for sustainable forest management. Here we use fine-scale satellite data to observe an increase in the harvested forest area (49 per cent) and an increase in biomass loss (69 per cent) over Europe for the period of 2016-2018 relative to 2011-2015, with large losses occurring on the Iberian Peninsula and in the Nordic and Baltic countries. Satellite imagery further reveals that the average patch size of harvested area increased by 34 per cent across Europe, with potential effects on biodiversity, soil erosion and water regulation. The increase in the rate of forest harvest is the result of the recent expansion of wood markets, as suggested by econometric indicators on forestry, wood-based bioenergy and international trade. If such a high rate of forest harvest continues, the post-2020 EU vision of forest-based climate mitigation may be hampered, and the additional carbon losses from forests would require extra emission reductions in other sectors in order to reach climate neutrality by 20503.

Looking for traces of the Troika's intervention in European road safety.

The recent economic crisis has required the bailout of some European States by the so-called Troika, with capital injections accompanied by financial austerity. This paper analyzes econometrically the impact of this support programme on road safety for an original panel data (1995-2015). The findings also corroborate the Kuznets curve hypothesis for traffic accidents in the long term. Regarding the impact of intervention in the short term, despite reductions in safety policy budgets due to austerity, financial support, and related austerity measures might have led to an improvement in road safety, reducing both the number of accidents and fatalities. Therefore, it seems that our result is more linked to the austerity measures than to the financial support given by the Troika.

Production losses associated with premature mortality in 28 European Union countries.

Background: There has been a growing interest in the economic burden of mortality; however, a majority of evidence is concerned with particular diseases. Less is known on the overall cost of all-cause early deaths, principally in international context. Therefore, this study aims to estimate production losses of premature mortality across 28 European Union (EU-28) countries in 2015. Methods: The human capital method was applied to estimate the production losses (indirect costs) of all-cause deaths occurring at working age. The sex- and age-specific data on the number of deaths were taken from Eurostat's database and a set of labour market measures was used to determine time of work during whole lifespan in particular countries. Results: The total production losses of all-cause premature mortality in EU-28 in 2015 were €174.6 billion, adjusted for purchasing power parity. The per capita production losses associated with early deaths were €342.39 for the whole EU-28 population on average; Lithuania experienced the highest per capita burden (€643.68), while the average costs were lowest in Greece (€188.69). These figures translated to an economic burden of 1.179% of gross domestic product in EU-28 and this share ranged from 0.679% in Luxembourg to 3.176% in Latvia. Most of the losses were due to men's deaths and the proportion of losses associated with male mortality ranged from 64.7% in the Netherlands to 81.2% in Poland. Conclusions: Premature mortality is a considerable economic burden for European societies; however, the production losses associated with early deaths vary notably in particular countries.

Production Losses Associated with Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in the European Union.

The economic aspects of alcohol misuse are attracting increasing attention from policy makers and researchers but the evidence on the economic burden of this substance is hardly comparable internationally. This study aims to overcome this problem by estimating production losses (indirect costs) associated with alcohol-attributable mortality in 28 European Union (EU) countries in the year 2016. This study applies the prevalence-based top-down approach, societal perspective and human capital method to sex- and age-specific data on alcohol-related mortality at working age. The alcohol-attributable mortality data was taken from estimates based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Uniform data on labor and economic measures from the Eurostat database was used. The total production losses associated with alcohol-related deaths in the EU in 2016 were €32.1 billion. The per capita costs (share of costs in gross domestic product (GDP)) were €62.88 (0.215%) for the whole EU and ranged from €17.29 (0.062%) in Malta to €192.93 (0.875%) in Lithuania. On average, 81% of the losses were associated with male deaths and mortality among those aged 50-54 years generated the highest burden. Because alcohol is a major avoidable factor for mortality, public health community actions aimed at limiting this substance misuse might not only decrease the health burden but also contribute to the economic welfare of European societies.

With or without U(K): A pre-Brexit network analysis of the EU ETS.

The European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) is commonly regarded as the key pillar of the European climate policy and as the main unifying tool to create a unique carbon price all over Europe. The UK has always played a crucial role in the EU ETS, being one of the most active national registry and a crucial hub for the exchange of allowances in the market. Brexit, therefore, could deeply modify the number and directions of such exchanges as well as the centrality of the other countries in this system. To investigate these issues, the present paper exploits network analysis tools to compare the structure of the EU ETS market in its first two phases with and without the UK, investigating a few different scenarios that might emerge from a possible reallocation of the transactions that have involved UK partners. We find that without the UK the EU ETS network would become in general much more homogeneous, though results may change focusing on the type of accounts involved in the transactions.