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1.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 73(17): 387-392, 2024 May 02.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38696330

Traffic-related pedestrian deaths in the United States reached a 40-year high in 2021. Each year, pedestrians also suffer nonfatal traffic-related injuries requiring medical treatment. Near real-time emergency department visit data from CDC's National Syndromic Surveillance Program during January 2021-December 2023 indicated that among approximately 301 million visits identified, 137,325 involved a pedestrian injury (overall visit proportion = 45.62 per 100,000 visits). The proportions of visits for pedestrian injury were 1.53-2.47 times as high among six racial and ethnic minority groups as that among non-Hispanic White persons. Compared with persons aged ≥65 years, proportions among those aged 15-24 and 25-34 years were 2.83 and 2.61 times as high, respectively. The visit proportion was 1.93 times as high among males as among females, and 1.21 times as high during September-November as during June-August. Timely pedestrian injury data can help collaborating federal, state, and local partners rapidly monitor trends, identify disparities, and implement strategies supporting the Safe System approach, a framework for preventing traffic injuries among all road users.


Accidents, Traffic , Emergency Service, Hospital , Pedestrians , Wounds and Injuries , Humans , Accidents, Traffic/statistics & numerical data , Pedestrians/statistics & numerical data , United States/epidemiology , Adolescent , Young Adult , Adult , Male , Female , Emergency Service, Hospital/statistics & numerical data , Aged , Middle Aged , Child, Preschool , Child , Wounds and Injuries/epidemiology , Infant , Age Distribution , Emergency Room Visits
2.
Biochem Pharmacol ; : 116258, 2024 May 03.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38705533

Over the past decade, human genome-wide association and expression studies have strongly implicated dysregulation of the innate immune system in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Single cell mRNA sequencing studies have identified innate immune cell subtypes that are minimally present in normal healthy brain, but whose numbers greatly increase in association with AD pathology. These AD pathology-associated immune cells are putatively the locus for the immune-related AD risk. While the prevailing view is that these immune cells arise from transformation of resident brain microglia, studies across several decades and using multiple techniques and strategies suggest instead that the pathology-associated immune cells are bone-marrow derived hematopoietic cells that are recruited into brain. We critically review this translational literature, emphasizing the strengths and limitations of techniques used to address recruitment and the experimental designs employed. We conclude that the aggregate evidence points toward recruitment into brain of innate immune cells of the myeloid dendritic cell lineage. Recruitment of dendritic cells and their role in AD pathogenesis has broad implications for our understanding of the etiology and pathobiology of AD that impact the strategies to develop new, immune system-targeted therapeutics for this devastating disease.

3.
Inj Prev ; 30(3): 261-264, 2024 May 20.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38378255

BACKGROUND: Vision Zero is a strategy to eliminate traffic fatalities and to promote equitable mobility options for all road users. Using a nationally representative survey, we aimed to estimate the prevalence of Vision Zero action plans or strategies in the USA. METHODS: Municipal officials were surveyed in 2021. In this cross-sectional study, we calculated the prevalence of Vision Zero plans or strategies and compared municipalities with adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) to account for region and sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: Among 1955 municipalities participating in the survey (question-specific response rate: 44.3%), the prevalence of a Vision Zero action plan or strategy was 7.7%; 70.5% responded no and 21.8% don't know. Prevalence was 4.8% in small municipalities (1000-2499 residents), 20.3% in medium-large municipalities (50 000-124 999 residents; PR=4.1), and 37.8% in large municipalities (≥125 000 residents; PR=7.6). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of Vision Zero plans and strategies across the USA is low. Additional adoption of Vision Zero plans and strategies could help address traffic fatalities.


Accidents, Traffic , Automobile Driving , Humans , Cross-Sectional Studies , United States/epidemiology , Accidents, Traffic/statistics & numerical data , Accidents, Traffic/prevention & control , Automobile Driving/statistics & numerical data , Prevalence , Surveys and Questionnaires
4.
Mov Disord ; 39(2): 267-272, 2024 Feb.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38226487

The link between smoking and a lower risk of Parkinson's disease (PD) is one of the strongest environmental or lifestyle associations in neuroepidemiology. Growing evidence supports the hypothesis that the association is based on a neuroprotective effect of smoking on PD, despite the plausible alternative that smoking serves as a marker for a proximal protective influence without itself conferring benefit. But how smoking could protect against neurodegeneration in PD is not well understood. Of several candidate molecules and mechanisms that have been nominated, nicotine has received the most attention. However, randomized controlled clinical trials of nicotine in PD have failed to demonstrate benefit on motor endpoints, including the NIC-PD study in which recently diagnosed participants were randomly assigned to placebo or nicotine treatment for 1 year. Given these results, the time is right to evaluate the neuroprotective potential of other molecules and biochemical cascades triggered by smoking. Here, we review the evidence supporting smoking's possible protective effect on PD, compounds in tobacco and smoke that might mediate such benefit, and non-causal classes of explanation, including reverse causation and the prospect of shared genetic determinants of smoking and PD resistance. The therapeutic potential of non-nicotine components of smoke is suggested by studies supporting multiple alternative mechanisms ranging from monoamine oxidase inhibitors to gut microbiome disruption to antioxidant response induction by chronic exposure to low levels of carbon monoxide. Rigorous investigation is warranted to evaluate this molecule and others for disease-preventing and disease-modifying activity in PD models and, if warranted, in clinical trials. © 2024 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.


Nicotine , Parkinson Disease , Smoking , Humans , Nicotine/adverse effects , Parkinson Disease/genetics , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic , Smokers , Smoking/adverse effects
5.
J Environ Manage ; 336: 117596, 2023 Jun 15.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36898238

Naked carp (Gymnocypris przewalskii) is the only fish species commercially harvested in Qinghai Lake, which is the largest inland saltwater lake in China. Multiple ecological stresses such as long-term overfishing, drying-up of riverine inflows, and decreases in spawning habitat caused the naked carp population to decrease from 320,000 tons before the 1950s to only 3000 tons by the early 2000s. We used matrix projection population modeling to quantitatively simulate the dynamics of the naked carp population from the 1950s to the 2020s. Five versions of the matrix model were developed from the field and laboratory information that represented different population states (high but declining, low abundance, very low abundance, initial recovery, pristine). Equilibrium analysis was applied to density-independent versions of the matrices and population growth rate, age composition, and elasticities were compared among versions. Stochastic, density-dependent version of the most recent decade (recovering) version was used to simulate the time-dependent responses to a range of levels of artificial reproduction (addition of age-1 from hatchery) and of the pristine version to simulate combinations of fishing rate and minimum age of harvest. Results showed the major role of overfishing in the population decline and that the population growth rate was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and the spawning success of early-age adults. Dynamic simulations showed a rapid population response to artificial reproduction when population abundance was low and that if artificial reproduction continues at its current level, then population biomass would reach 75% of its pristine biomass after 50 years. Simulations with the pristine version identified sustainable fishing levels and the importance of protecting the first few ages of maturity. Overall, modeling results showed that artificial reproduction under conditions of no fishing is an effective approach to restoring the naked carp population. Further effectiveness should consider maximizing survival in the months just after release and maintaining genetic and phenotypic diversity. More information on density-dependent growth, survival, and reproduction, as well as on the genetic diversity and growth and migratory behavior (phenotypic variation) of released and native-spawned fish, would help inform management and conservation strategies and practices going forward.


Carps , Animals , Lakes , Conservation of Natural Resources , Fisheries , China , Population Dynamics
6.
Am J Prev Med ; 64(1): 66-75, 2023 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36155710

INTRODUCTION: Obesity and physical inactivity are considered possible U.S. national security threats because of their impact on military recruitment. The objectives of this study were to estimate the prevalence of (1) BMI eligibility for military entrance, (2) adequate physical activity participation among the BMI-eligible population, and (3) combined BMI eligibility and adequate physical activity. METHODS: This cross-sectional study of nonpregnant, military-aged civilians (aged 17-42 years) used objectively measured weight and height data and self-reported aerobic physical activity data from the 2015-2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. BMI eligibility was defined as 19.0-27.5 kg/m2, per Department of Defense regulation. Adequate physical activity for entering initial military training was defined as ≥300 minutes/week of equivalent moderate-intensity aerobic physical activity from all domains, approximating U.S. Army guidance. Participants meeting both definitions were further classified as eligible and active. Analyses were conducted in 2021-2022. RESULTS: Of military-aged participants (unweighted n=5,964), 47.3% were eligible by BMI. Among BMI-eligible participants, 72.5% reported adequate physical activity. Taken together, 34.3% were both eligible and active. The prevalence of eligible and active status was higher among males, persons who were younger and non-Hispanic White, college graduates, and those with higher family income than among their counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: Among the military-aged U.S. population, slightly under half were eligible to enter the military on the basis of their BMI, and only 1 in 3 met BMI eligibility and were adequately physically active. Equitable promotion of healthy weight achievement and physical activity participation may improve military preparedness.


Military Personnel , Male , Humans , United States , Body Mass Index , Cross-Sectional Studies , Nutrition Surveys , Exercise
7.
Prev Med Rep ; 30: 102003, 2022 Dec.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36237840

Motor vehicle traffic is commonly cited as a barrier to walking, but national level perceptions of traffic characteristics that negatively influence walking and potential traffic mitigation strategies remain unclear. The objectives of this study were to describe perceptions of (1) traffic characteristics that make walking unsafe in the United States and (2) potential mitigation strategies to address these concerns among those who report traffic as a barrier to walking. Data were from FallStyles, a nationwide internet panel survey conducted in October 2019 (n = 3,284 adults). Respondents reported if traffic makes walking unsafe where they live; those who answered yes were then asked about traffic characteristics that make walking unsafe (number of vehicles, speed of vehicles, distracted or impaired driving, types of vehicles, and other reasons) and potential mitigation strategies (new or improved sidewalks, crosswalks, pedestrian signals, street lighting, things that slow vehicles down, separating the sidewalk from the road, fewer vehicle lanes, and other). Prevalence of responses was assessed overall and by select sociodemographic and geographic characteristics, and by walking status. Nearly 25% of US adults reported that traffic is a barrier to walking where they live. Of these, 79% selected vehicle speed as a contributing traffic characteristic, and 57% indicated new or improved sidewalks as a potential mitigation strategy. These top responses were shared across all sociodemographic, geographic, and walking behavior subgroups. Speed reduction efforts and built environment enhancements such as sidewalks may alleviate pedestrian safety concerns. Promotion campaigns may be needed to bring awareness to such changes.

8.
PLoS One ; 17(7): e0270967, 2022.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35877693

The blind troglobite cavefish Sinocyclocheilus rhinocerous lives in oligotrophic, phreatic subterranean waters and possesses a unique cranial morphology including a pronounced supra-occipital horn. We used a combined approach of laboratory observations and Computational Fluid Dynamics modeling to characterize the swimming behavior and other hydrodynamic aspects, i.e., drag coefficients and lateral line sensing distance of S. rhinocerous. Motion capture and tracking based on an Artificial Neural Network, complemented by a Particle Image Velocimetry system to map out water velocity fields, were utilized to analyze the motion of a live specimen in a laboratory aquarium. Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations on flow fields and pressure fields, based on digital models of S. rhinocerous, were also performed. These simulations were compared to analogous simulations employing models of the sympatric, large-eyed troglophile cavefish S. angustiporus. Features of the cavefish swimming behavior deduced from the both live-specimen experiments and simulations included average swimming velocities and three dimensional trajectories, estimates for drag coefficients and potential lateral line sensing distances, and mapping of the flow field around the fish. As expected, typical S. rhinocerous swimming speeds were relatively slow. The lateral line sensing distance was approximately 0.25 body lengths, which may explain the observation that specimen introduced to a new environment tend to swim parallel and near to the walls. Three-dimensional simulations demonstrate that just upstream from the region under the supra-occipital horn the equipotential of the water pressure and velocity fields are nearly vertical. Results support the hypothesis that the conspicuous cranial horn of S. rhinocerous may lead to greater stimulus of the lateral line compared to fish that do not possess such morphology.


Characidae , Cyprinidae , Animals , Biomechanical Phenomena , China , Cyprinidae/anatomy & histology , Hydrodynamics , Swimming , Water
9.
IEEE Trans Image Process ; 31: 2136-2147, 2022.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35196237

Spherical video coding is critical to the success of many virtual reality and related applications. This paper focuses on an important class of spherical videos whose dynamics involve camera motion. A common approach to spherical video coding is to project from the sphere onto a plane (or planes), where a standard video coder is applied. The projection induces warping resulting in complex non-linear motion in the projected domain that severely comprises the performance of motion models in standard coders. To overcome this shortcoming, we propose a new motion model that captures the motion field on the sphere, and capitalizes on insights into the perceived motion on the sphere due to camera translation. Specifically, surrounding static points are perceived as moving along their respective geodesics, which all intersect at the points where the camera velocity vector intersects the sphere. We analyze the rate of translation along geodesics and its dependence on the elevation of a pixel on the sphere with respect to the camera velocity vector. The analysis leads to a motion vector modulation scheme that perfectly captures the perceived motion of each pixel. Complementary to the new motion model, we propose a search grid tailored to capture expected geodesic motion on the sphere for effective motion estimation. The proposed method yields significant bit-rate savings over employing standard HEVC after projection, which validates its efficacy.

10.
J Hum Evol ; 164: 103141, 2022 03.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35158085

Early Eocene primate postcranial bones from the Vastan lignite mine of Gujarat, India, have proven useful for understanding the haplorhine and strepsirrhine divergence. Previous analyses of material assigned to Asiadapidae supported interpretations that these primates were generalized arboreal quadrupeds, while the omomyid Vastanomys was likely to have been more proficient leaper than asiadapids. More recent examinations of long bone cross-sectional properties and calcaneal elongation have complicated the behavioral interpretations of these fossils. This study examines whole talar and calcaneal morphology of the Vastan material to refine the locomotor reconstructions of these fossils. A comparative sample of extant primate species representing various locomotor behaviors was obtained by accessing surface models from MorphoSource.org. Surface models of fossil specimens attributed to Asiadapis cambayensis, Marcgodinotius indicus, and Vastanomys major were generated from micro-computed tomography scans. A morphological analysis was carried out using weighted spherical harmonics, a Fourier-based method that represents surfaces using coefficients associated with a common set of spherical harmonic functions. The coefficients describing each surface were then used as shape variables in a principal components analysis. Significant differences between locomotor groups were assessed using nonparametric tests. Results from extant comparative samples show that locomotor behavior can be predicted from both talar and calcaneal morphology when phylogenetic relationships are known. Consistent with previous analyses, our results indicate that Asiadapis cambayensis and Marcgodinotius indicus were likely arboreal quadrupeds with some leaping capabilities. Vastanomys major is reconstructed as an arboreal quadruped with greater leaping proficiency than its asiadapid counterparts based on its talar morphology.


Calcaneus , Fossils , Animals , Calcaneus/anatomy & histology , Phylogeny , Primates/anatomy & histology , X-Ray Microtomography
11.
IEEE Trans Image Process ; 31: 636-647, 2022.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34914587

Adaptive prediction is an important tool for efficient compression of non-stationary signals. A common approach to achieve adaptivity is to switch between a set of prediction modes, designed to capture variations in signal statistics. The design poses several challenges including: i) catastrophic instability due to statistical mismatch driven by propagation through the prediction loop, and ii) severe non-convexity of the cost surface that is often riddled with poor local minima. Motivated by these challenges, this paper presents a near-optimal method for designing prediction modes for adaptive compression. The proposed method builds on a stable, open-loop platform, but with a subterfuge that ensures that the design is asymptotically optimized for closed-loop operation. The non-convexity is handled by deterministic annealing, a powerful optimization tool to avoid poor local minima. To demonstrate the impact of the proposed approach on practical applications, we consider adaptive, transform-domain predictor design for enhancing standard video coding. Experimental results validate the benefits of the proposed design in terms of significant performance gains for both predictive compression systems in general and video coding in particular.

12.
Ecol Modell ; 465: 1-109635, 2021 Sep 15.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34675451

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest, most productive, and most biologically diverse estuary in the continental United States providing crucial habitat and natural resources for culturally and economically important species. Pressures from human population growth and associated development and agricultural intensification have led to excessive nutrient and sediment inputs entering the Bay, negatively affecting the health of the Bay ecosystem and the economic services it provides. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is a unique program formally created in 1983 as a multi-stakeholder partnership to guide and foster restoration of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. Since its inception, the CBP Partnership has been developing, updating, and applying a complex linked modeling system of watershed, airshed, and estuary models as a planning tool to inform strategic management decisions and Bay restoration efforts. This paper provides a description of the 2017 CBP Modeling System and the higher trophic level models developed by the NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, along with specific recommendations that emerged from a 2018 workshop designed to inform future model development. Recommendations highlight the need for simulation of watershed inputs, conditions, processes, and practices at higher resolution to provide improved information to guide local nutrient and sediment management plans. More explicit and extensive modeling of connectivity between watershed landforms and estuary sub-areas, estuarine hydrodynamics, watershed and estuarine water quality, the estuarine-watershed socioecological system, and living resources will be important to broaden and improve characterization of responses to targeted nutrient and sediment load reductions. Finally, the value and importance of maintaining effective collaborations among jurisdictional managers, scientists, modelers, support staff, and stakeholder communities is emphasized. An open collaborative and transparent process has been a key element of successes to date and is vitally important as the CBP Partnership moves forward with modeling system improvements that help stakeholders evolve new knowledge, improve management strategies, and better communicate outcomes.

13.
J Phys Act Health ; 18(9): 1088-1096, 2021 09 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34243168

BACKGROUND: Built environment approaches to promoting physical activity can provide economic value to communities. How best to assess this value is uncertain. This study engaged experts to identify a set of key economic indicators useful for evaluation, research, and public health practice. METHODS: Using a modified Delphi process, a multidisciplinary group of experts participated in (1) one of 5 discussion groups (n = 21 experts), (2) a 2-day facilitated workshop (n = 19 experts), and/or (3) online surveys (n = 16 experts). RESULTS: Experts identified 73 economic indicators, then used a 5-point scale to rate them on 3 properties: measurement quality, feasibility of use by a community, and influence on community decision making. Twenty-four indicators were highly rated (≥3.9 on all properties). The 10 highest-rated "key" indicators were walkability score, residential vacancy rate, housing affordability, property tax revenue, retail sales per square foot, number of small businesses, vehicle miles traveled per capita, employment, air quality, and life expectancy. CONCLUSION: This study identified key economic indicators that could characterize the economic value of built environment approaches to promoting physical activity. Additional work could demonstrate the validity, feasibility, and usefulness of these key indicators, in particular to inform decisions about community design.


Built Environment , Exercise , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Environment Design , Humans , Surveys and Questionnaires
14.
Biol Lett ; 17(2): 20200824, 2021 02.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33563133

The early Eocene of the southern Bighorn Basin, Wyoming, is notable for its nearly continuous record of mammalian fossils. Microsyopinae (?Primates) is one of several lineages that shows evidence of evolutionary change associated with an interval referred to as Biohorizon A. Arctodontomys wilsoni is replaced by a larger species, Arctodontomys nuptus, during the biohorizon interval in what is likely an immigration/emigration or immigration/local extinction event. The latter is then superseded by Microsyops angustidens after the end of the Biohorizon A interval. Although this pattern has been understood for some time, denser sampling has led to the identification of a specimen intermediate in morphology between A. nuptus and M. angustidens, located stratigraphically as the latter is appearing. Because specimens of A. nuptus have been recovered approximately 60 m above the appearance of M. angustidens, it is clear that A. nuptus did not suffer pseudoextinction. Instead, evidence suggests that M. angustidens branched off from a population of A. nuptus, but the latter species persisted. This represents possible evidence of cladogenesis, which has rarely been directly documented in the fossil record. The improved understanding of both evolutionary transitions with better sampling highlights the problem of interpreting gaps in the fossil record as punctuations.


Fossils , Genetic Speciation , Animals , Biological Evolution , Primates , Wyoming
16.
Nutr Neurosci ; 24(9): 710-719, 2021 Sep.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31583972

Objectives: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a growing global health crisis exacerbated by increasing life span and an aging demographic. Convergent lines of evidence, including genome-wide association studies, strongly implicate neuroinflammation in the pathogenesis of AD. Several dietary agents, including phenolic-rich foods, show promise for the prevention and/or management of AD, which in large part, has been attributed to their anti-inflammatory effects. We previously reported that a food-grade phenolic-enriched maple syrup extract (MSX) inhibited neuroinflammation in vitro but whether these effects are translatable in vivo remain unknown. Herein, we assessed MSX's ability to attenuate early neuroinflammation in a transgenic mouse model of AD.Methods: The effects of MSX on AD-related neuroinflammation was evaluated by orally administering MSX (100 and 200 mg/kg/day for 30 days) to the 3xTg-AD mouse model of AD. The expression of inflammatory markers in mouse brains were analyzed with LC-MS/MS with SWATH acquisition.Results: 3xTg-AD mice dosed orally with MSX have decreased expression of several inflammatory proteins, including, most notably, the AD risk-associated protein 'triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-2' (TREM2), and stimulator of interferon genes TMEM173, and suppressor of cytokine signaling-6 (SOCS6). However, this decrease in inflammation did not coincide with a decrease in pathogenic amyloid generation or lipid peroxidation.Discussion: These data demonstrate that oral administration of this maple syrup derived natural product reduces key neuroinflammatory indices of AD in the 3xTg-AD model of AD. Therefore, further studies to investigate MSX's potential as a dietary intervention strategy for AD prevention and/or management are warranted.


Acer , Alzheimer Disease , Anti-Inflammatory Agents/administration & dosage , Neuroinflammatory Diseases/drug therapy , Phenols/administration & dosage , Plant Extracts/administration & dosage , Alzheimer Disease/metabolism , Amyloid beta-Peptides/analysis , Animals , Brain Chemistry , Disease Models, Animal , Female , Mass Spectrometry , Membrane Glycoproteins/analysis , Mice , Mice, Transgenic , Neuroinflammatory Diseases/metabolism , Phytotherapy , Receptors, Immunologic/analysis
19.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32784138

This paper proposes a novel bi-directional motion compensation framework that extracts existing motion information associated with the reference frames and interpolates an additional reference frame candidate that is co-located with the current frame. The approach generates a dense motion field by performing optical flow estimation, so as to capture complex motion between the reference frames without recourse to additional side information. The estimated optical flow is then complemented by transmission of offset motion vectors to correct for possible deviation from the linearity assumption in the interpolation. Various optimization schemes specifically tailored to the video coding framework are presented to further improve the performance. To accommodate applications where decoder complexity is a cardinal concern, a block-constrained speed-up algorithm is also proposed. Experimental results show that the main approach and optimization methods yield significant coding gains across a diverse set of video sequences. Further experiments focus on the trade-off between performance and complexity, and demonstrate that the proposed speed-up algorithm offers complexity reduction by a large factor while maintaining most of the performance gains.

20.
Biol Invasions ; 22(8): 2473-2495, 2020.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32624679

Bighead carp H. nobilis and silver carp Hypothalmichthys molitrix (collectively bigheaded carps, BHC) are invasive planktivorous fishes that threaten to enter the Laurentian Great Lakes and disrupt food webs. To assess the likelihood of BHC establishment and their likely effects on the food web of Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron, we developed a multi-species individual-based bioenergetics model that tracks individual bighead and silver carp, four key fish species, and seven prey biomass groups over 50 years. The model tracks the daily consumption, mortality and growth of all individuals and the biomass dynamics of interacting prey pools. We ran simulation scenarios to determine the likelihood of BHC establishment under initial introductions from 5 to 1 million yearling and older individuals, and assuming variable age-0 carp survival rates (high, intermediate, and low). We bounded the survival of age-0 BHC as recruitment continues to be one of the biggest unknowns. We also simulated the potential effects of an established population of 1 million bighead carp or silver carp assuming variation in age-0 survival. Results indicated that as few as 10 BHC could establish a population assuming high or intermediate age-0 survival, but at least 100,000 individuals were needed to establish a population assuming low age-0 survival. BHC had negative effects on plankton and planktivorous fish biomass, which increased with BHC density. However, piscivorous walleye Sander vitreus appeared to benefit from BHC establishment. The potential for BHC to establish and affect ecologically and economically important fish species in Saginaw Bay is a cause for concern.

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