Association between government policy and delays in emergent and elective surgical care during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of public health policy to reduce the spread of COVID-19 on access to surgical care is poorly defined. We aim to quantify the surgical backlog during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Brazilian public health system and determine the relationship between state-level policy response and the degree of state-level delays in public surgical care. METHODS: Monthly estimates of surgical procedures performed per state from January 2016 to December 2020 were obtained from Brazil's Unified Health System Informatics Department. Forecasting models using historical surgical volume data before March 2020 (first reported COVID-19 case) were constructed to predict expected monthly operations from March through December 2020. Total, emergency, and elective surgical monthly backlogs were calculated by comparing reported volume to forecasted volume. Linear mixed effects models were used to model the relationship between public surgical delivery and two measures of health policy response: the COVID-19 Stringency Index (SI) and the Containment & Health Index (CHI) by state. FINDINGS: Between March and December 2020, the total surgical backlog included 1,119,433 (95% Confidence Interval 762,663-1,523,995) total operations, 161,321 (95%CI 37,468-395,478) emergent operations, and 928,758 (95%CI 675,202-1,208,769) elective operations. Increased SI and CHI scores were associated with reductions in emergent surgical delays but increases in elective surgical backlogs. The maximum government stringency (score = 100) reduced emergency delays to nearly zero but tripled the elective surgical backlog. INTERPRETATION: Strong health policy efforts to contain COVID-19 ensure minimal reductions in delivery of emergent surgery, but dramatically increase elective backlogs. Additional coordinated government efforts will be necessary to specifically address the increased elective backlogs that accompany stringent responses.

Bellwether Procedures for Monitoring Subnational Variation of All-cause Perioperative Mortality in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: All-cause perioperative mortality rate (POMR) is a commonly reported metric to assess surgical quality. Benchmarking POMR remains difficult due to differences in surgical volume and case mix combined with the burden of reporting and leveraging this complex and high-volume data. We seek to determine whether the pooled and individual procedure POMR of each bellwether (cesarean section, laparotomy, management of open fracture) correlate with state-level all-cause POMR in the interest of identifying benchmark procedures that can be used to make standardized regional comparisons of surgical quality. METHODS: The Brazilian National Healthcare Database (DATASUS) was queried to identify unadjusted all-cause POMR for all patient admissions among public hospitals in Brazil in 2018. Bellwether procedures were identified as any procedure involving laparotomy, cesarean section, or treatment of open long bone fracture and then classified as emergent or elective. The pooled POMR of all bellwether procedures as well as for each individual bellwether procedure was compared with the all-cause POMR in each of the 26 states, and one federal district and correlations were calculated. Funnel plots were used to compare surgical volume to perioperative mortality for each bellwether procedure. RESULTS: 4,756,642 surgical procedures were reported to DATASUS in 2018: 237,727 emergent procedures requiring laparotomy, 852,821 emergent cesarean sections, and 210,657 open, long bone fracture repairs. Pooled perioperative mortality for all of the bellwether procedures was correlated with all-procedure POMR among states (r = 0.77, p < 0.001). POMR for emergency procedures (2.4%) correlated with the all-procedure (emergent and elective) POMR (1.6%, r = 0.93, p < .001), while POMR for elective procedures (0.4%) did not (p = .247). POMR for emergency laparotomy (4.4%) correlated with all-procedure POMR (1.6%, r = 0.52, p = .005), as did the POMR for open, long bone fractures (0.8%, r = 0.61, p < .001). POMR for emergency cesarean section (0.05%) did not correlate with all-procedure POMR (p = 0.400). There was a correlation between surgical volume and emergency laparotomy POMR (r = - 0.53, p = .004), but not for emergency cesarean section or open, long bone fractures POMR. CONCLUSION: Procedure-specific POMR for laparotomy and open long bone fracture correlates modestly with all-procedure POMR among Brazilian states which is primarily driven by emergency procedure POMR. Selective reporting of emergency laparotomy and open fracture POMR may be a useful surrogate to guide subnational surgical policy decisions.

Cancer management in the Pacific region: a report on innovation and good practice.

Pacific island countries and territories (PICTs) face the challenge of a growing cancer burden. In response to these challenges, examples of innovative practice in cancer planning, prevention, and treatment in the region are emerging, including regionalisation and coalition building in the US-affiliated Pacific nations, a point-of-care test and treat programme for cervical cancer control in Papua New Guinea, improving the management of children with cancer in the Pacific, and surgical workforce development in the region. For each innovation, key factors leading to its success have been identified that could allow the implementation of these new developments in other PICTs or regions outside of the Pacific islands. These factors include the strengthening of partnerships within and between countries, regional collaboration within the Pacific islands (eg, the US-affiliated Pacific nations) and with other regional groupings of small island nations (eg, the Caribbean islands), a local commitment to the idea of change, and the development of PICT-specific programmes.