DNAm scores for serum GDF15 and NT-proBNP levels associate with a range of traits affecting the body and brain.

BACKGROUND: Plasma growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF15) and N-terminal proB-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are cardiovascular biomarkers that associate with a range of diseases. Epigenetic scores (EpiScores) for GDF15 and NT-proBNP may provide new routes for risk stratification. RESULTS: In the Generation Scotland cohort (N ≥ 16,963), GDF15 levels were associated with incident dementia, ischaemic stroke and type 2 diabetes, whereas NT-proBNP levels were associated with incident ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke and type 2 diabetes (all PFDR < 0.05). Bayesian epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) identified 12 and 4 DNA methylation (DNAm) CpG sites associated (Posterior Inclusion Probability [PIP] > 95%) with levels of GDF15 and NT-proBNP, respectively. EpiScores for GDF15 and NT-proBNP were trained in a subset of the population. The GDF15 EpiScore replicated protein associations with incident dementia, type 2 diabetes and ischaemic stroke in the Generation Scotland test set (hazard ratios (HR) range 1.36-1.41, PFDR < 0.05). The EpiScore for NT-proBNP replicated the protein association with type 2 diabetes, but failed to replicate an association with ischaemic stroke. EpiScores explained comparable variance in protein levels across both the Generation Scotland test set and the external LBC1936 test cohort (R2 range of 5.7-12.2%). In LBC1936, both EpiScores were associated with indicators of poorer brain health. Neither EpiScore was associated with incident dementia in the LBC1936 population. CONCLUSIONS: EpiScores for serum levels of GDF15 and Nt-proBNP associate with body and brain health traits. These EpiScores are provided as potential tools for disease risk stratification.

In which common chronic conditions can (or cannot) obesity and lifestyle factors explain higher concentrations of C-reactive protein?

AIM: Elevated C-reactive protein (CRP), a marker of inflammation, is common in many chronic conditions. We aimed to examine to what extent elevated CRP in chronic conditions could be explained by concurrent adiposity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study analysed UK Biobank data on 10 chronic conditions reported at baseline. Linear regression models explored the extent to which CRP concentrations were elevated in each condition, unadjusted; adjusted for sociodemographic confounders and lifestyle and body mass index (BMI) in a series of models; or adjusted for BMI and waist circumference together or for adiposity alone. RESULTS: After exclusion of participants with a potential acute infection at baseline, we tested the association in 292 772 UK Biobank participants. Linear regression showed that elevated CRP concentration was associated with all included conditions. After adjustment for sociodemographic confounders, lifestyle and BMI, chronic kidney disease, heart failure, liver disease, psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were still associated with elevated CRP. In contrast, the association between prevalent diabetes, prior myocardial infarction (MI), hypertension and sleep apnoea and CRP could be mostly explained by adiposity alone. For example, the 42% higher CRP concentrations in diabetes compared to those without diabetes in the unadjusted model (lnCRP ß: 0.35; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.32-0.37, p < 0.001) were completely attenuated after adjustment for BMI (lnCRP ß: -0.07; 95% CI: -0.09-0.05, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In diabetes, MI, hypertension and sleep apnoea and elevated CRP appears to be accounted for by the greater adiposity typically evident in these conditions. However, for the other conditions, systemic inflammation cannot be explained by excess adiposity alone.

Zibotentan in Microvascular Angina: A Randomized, Placebo-Controlled, Crossover Trial.

Background: Microvascular angina is associated with dysregulation of the endothelin system and impairments in myocardial blood flow, exercise capacity, and health-related quality of life. The G allele of the noncoding single nucleotide polymorphism RS9349379 enhances expression of the endothelin-1 gene (EDN1) in human vascular cells, potentially increasing circulating concentrations of Endothelin-1 (ET-1). Whether zibotentan, an oral ET-A receptor selective antagonist, is efficacious and safe for the treatment of microvascular angina is unknown. Methods: Patients with microvascular angina were enrolled in this double-blind, placebo-controlled, sequential crossover trial of zibotentan (10 mg daily for 12 weeks). The trial population was enriched to ensure a G allele frequency of 50% for the RS9349379 single nucleotide polymorphism. Participants and investigators were blinded to genotype. The primary outcome was treadmill exercise duration (seconds) using the Bruce protocol. The primary analysis estimated the mean within-participant difference in exercise duration after treatment with zibotentan versus placebo. Results: A total of 118 participants (mean ±SD; years of age 63.5 [9.2 ]; 71 [60.2% ] females; 25 [21.2% ] with diabetes) were randomized. Among 103 participants with complete data, the mean exercise duration with zibotentan treatment compared with placebo was not different (between-treatment difference, -4.26 seconds [95 ] CI, -19.60 to 11.06] P=0.5871). Secondary outcomes showed no improvement with zibotentan. Zibotentan reduced blood pressure and increased plasma concentrations of ET-1. Adverse events were more common with zibotentan (60.2%) compared with placebo (14.4%; P<0.001). Conclusions: Among patients with microvascular angina, short-term treatment with a relatively high dose (10 mg daily) of zibotentan was not beneficial. Target-related adverse effects were common.

Change in physical activity and its association with decline in kidney function: A UK Biobank-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Previous research on the association between physical activity (PA) and kidney function is inconsistent. The association between muscle mass and serum creatinine (SCr) may have implications for interpreting the effect of PA on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Few studies have reported changes in physical activity and changes in kidney function. METHODS: A cohort study was constructed using the UK Biobank. Changes in physical activity were self-reported as metabolic equivalent task (MET) minutes/week. eGFR was calculated using SCr and cystatin C (CysC). Cox and nonlinear regressions with restricted cubic splines were applied to explore the association between changes in physical activity and rapid decline of kidney function (RDKF, eGFR annual decrease ≥3 mL/min/1.73 m2), and the annual change of eGFR. An exploratory analysis of cardiorespiratory fitness as the exposure was conducted. RESULTS: Among 11 757 participants, the median follow-up time was 4.4 years. Participants whose PA decreased by 1000 MET minutes/week at the follow-up assessment had a 2% reduction in risk of developing RDKFSCr (HR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.96, 1.00). In contrast, a 1000 MET minutes/week increase in PA was associated with a 4% reduction in risk of developing RDKFCysC (HR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.93, 0.99). A PA increase of 1000 MET minutes/week was associated with eGFRCysC annual increase of 0.04 mL/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI: 0.03, 0.06) but no significant changes in eGFRSCr. CONCLUSIONS: In this general population study, there are differing associations between changes in PA and changes in kidney function depending on the kidney biomarker used. Increasing PA is modestly associated with improving annual eGFRCysC and reduced risk of RDKF.

Association of glycaemic control with intraocular pressure in a large general population: Results from the UK Biobank.

AIM: To evaluate the association of glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and serum glucose with intraocular pressure (IOP) in a large UK general population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Participants were selected from the UK Biobank, excluding those with eye conditions that may affect IOP. IOP was measured using an ocular response analyser. Goldmann-correlated IOP (IOPg) and corneal-compensated IOP (IOPcc) were outcomes of interest, and ocular hypertension was defined as left-eye IOPg or IOPcc > 21 mmHg. HbA1c and random (non-fasting) serum glucose were the exposures of interest. Multivariate restricted cubic spline models, as well as linear regression, were applied to explore the associations of interest. RESULTS: Among 68 806 participants (46.5% male), the mean age was 56.7 years. The mean (standard deviation) for IOPg was 15.7 (3.6) mmHg and 15.9 (3.6) mmHg for IOPcc. Occular hypertension was prevalent in 8055 participants (11.7%) and 4178 participants (6.1%) had diabetes. Those with diabetes had higher IOP and a higher prevalence of ocular hypertension. After adjustment for demographic and clinical variables, HbA1c was positively associated with IOP in participants with diabetes, but not in those without diabetes. For every 10-mmol/mol increase in HbA1c, IOPg increased by 0.20 mmHg (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.12, 0.28) and IOPcc by 0.15 mmHg (95% CI 0.07, 0.23); the odds of ocular hypertension was increased by 6% (95% CI 1.00, 1.13) in participants with diabetes. A borderline positive association between serum glucose and IOP was found only in participants without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Impaired glycaemic control was associated with elevated IOP and a possible risk of ocular hypertension among participants with diabetes but of normal ocular health.

Low thiamine status in adults following low-carbohydrate / ketogenic diets: a cross-sectional comparative study of micronutrient intake and status.

BACKGROUND: Low-carbohydrate diets (LCD) are popular for weight loss but lack evidence about micronutrient sufficiency in real-life use. This study assessed the intake and biochemical status of selected micronutrients in people voluntarily following LCDs. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted (2018-20) among 98 adults recruited as self-reporting either LCD (n = 49) or diets not restricting carbohydrates (controls; n = 49). Diets were assessed using the 130-item EPIC-Norfolk food-frequency questionnaire. Red-blood-cell thiamine diphosphate (TDP) was measured for thiamine status using HPLC. Plasma magnesium, zinc, copper, and selenium were measured using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Between-group biomarker comparisons were conducted using ANCOVA and adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and diabetes status. RESULTS: LCD-followers (26% male, median age 36 years, median BMI 24.2 kg/m2) reported adhering to LCDs for a median duration of 9 months (IQR 4-36). The most followed LCD type was 'their own variations of LCD' (30%), followed by ketogenic (23%), 'palaeolithic' (15%), and Atkins diets (8%). Among controls, 41% were male (median age 27 years, median BMI 23 kg/m2). Median macronutrient intakes for LCD vs control groups were carbohydrate 16%Energy (E) vs. 50%E; protein 25%E vs. 19%E; and fat 55%E vs 34%E (saturated fat 18%E vs. 11%E). Two-thirds of LCD followers (32/49) and half of the controls (24/49) reported some use of dietary supplements (p = 0.19). Among LCD-followers, assessing from food data only, 21 (43%) failed to meet the reference nutrient intake (RNI) for thiamine (vs.14% controls, p = 0.002). When thiamine from supplementation (single- or multivitamin) was included, there appeared to be no difference in thiamine intake between groups. Still, red-blood-cell TDP was lower in LCD-followers than controls (407 ± 91 vs. 633 ± 234 ng/gHb, p < 0.001). Three LCD-followers were thiamine-deficient (RBC thiamine < 275 ng/gHb) vs. one control. There were no significant differences in dietary intakes or plasma concentrations of magnesium, zinc, copper, and selenium between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Following LCDs is associated with lower thiamine intake and TDP status than diets without carbohydrate restriction, incompletely corrected by supplement use. These data, coupled with a lack of RCT evidence on body weight control, do not support recommending LCDs for weight management without appropriate guidance and diet supplementation.

A predictive model for medium-term weight loss response in people with type 2 diabetes engaging in behavioural weight management interventions.

AIMS: To develop and evaluate prediction models for medium-term weight loss response in behavioural weight management programmes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted three longitudinal analyses using the Action for HEalth in Diabetes (LookAHEAD) trial, Weight loss Referrals for Adults in Primary care (WRAP) trial, and routine data from the National Health Service Greater Glasgow and Clyde Weight Management Service (NHS-GGCWMS). We investigated predictors of medium-term weight loss (>5% body weight) over 3 years in NHS-GGCWMS and, separately, predictors of weight loss response in LookAHEAD over 4 years. We validated predictors in both studies using WRAP over 5 years. Predictors of interest included demographic and clinical variables, early weight change in-programme (first 4 weeks) and overall in-programme weight change. RESULTS: In LookAHEAD and WRAP the only baseline variables consistently associated with weight loss response were female sex and older age. Of 1152 participants in NHS-GGCWMS (mean age 57.8 years, 60% female, type 2 diabetes diagnosed for a median of 5.3 years), 139 lost weight over 3 years (12%). The strongest predictor of weight loss response was early weight change (odds ratio 2.22, 95% confidence interval 1.92-2.56) per 1% weight loss. Losing 0.5% weight in the first 4 weeks predicted medium-term weight loss (sensitivity 89.9%, specificity 49.5%, negative predictive value 97.3%). Overall in-programme weight change was also associated with weight loss response over 3 years in NHS-GGCWMS and over 5 years in WRAP. CONCLUSIONS: Not attaining a weight loss threshold of 0.5% early in weight management programmes may identify participants who would benefit from alternative interventions.

Measuring congestion with a non-invasive monitoring device in heart failure and haemodialysis: CONGEST-HF.

AIMS: We examined the effectiveness of a novel cardiopulmonary management wearable sensor (worn for less than 5 mins) at measuring congestion and correlated the device findings with established clinical measures of congestion. METHODS AND RESULTS: We enrolled three cohorts of patients: (1) patients with heart failure (HF) receiving intravenous diuretics in hospital; (2) patients established on haemodialysis, and (3) HF patients undergoing right heart catheterization (RHC). The primary outcomes in the respective cohorts were a Spearman correlation between (1) change in weight and change in thoracic impedance (TI) (from enrolment, 24 h after admission to discharge) in patients hospitalized for HF; (2) lung ultrasound B-lines and volume removed during dialysis with device measured TI, and (3) pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) and sub-acoustic diastolic, third heart sound (S3) in the patients undergoing RHC. A total of 66 patients were enrolled. In HF patients (n = 25), change in weight was correlated with both change in device TI (Spearman correlation [rsp] = -0.64, p = 0.002) and change in device S3 (rsp = -0.53, p = 0.014). In the haemodialysis cohort (n = 21), B-lines and TI were strongly correlated before (rsp = -0.71, p < 0.001) and after (rsp = -0.77, p < 0.001) dialysis. Volume of fluid removed by dialysis was correlated with change in device TI (rsp = 0.49, p = 0.024). In the RHC cohort (n = 20), PCWP measured at one time point and device S3 were not significantly correlated (rsp = 0.230, p = 0.204). There were no device-related adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: A non-invasive device was able to detect changes in congestion in patients with HF receiving decongestion therapy and patients having fluid removed at haemodialysis. The cardiopulmonary management device, which measures multiple parameters, is a potentially useful tool to monitor patients with HF to prevent hospitalizations.

Empagliflozin to prevent progressive adverse remodelling after myocardial infarction (EMPRESS-MI): rationale and design.

AIMS: Patients with a reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) following an acute myocardial infarction (MI) are at risk of progressive adverse cardiac remodelling that can lead to the development of heart failure and death. The early addition of a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor to standard treatment may delay or prevent progressive adverse remodelling in these patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: EMpagliflozin to PREvent worSening of left ventricular volumes and Systolic function after Myocardial Infarction (EMPRESS-MI) is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multi-centre trial designed to assess the effect of empagliflozin on cardiac remodelling evaluated using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) in 100 patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction following MI. Eligible patients were those ≥12 h and ≤14 days following acute MI, with an LVEF <45% by CMR. Patients were randomized to empagliflozin 10 mg once a day or matching placebo. The primary outcome will be change in left ventricular end-systolic volume indexed to body surface area over 24 weeks from randomization. Secondary endpoints include measures of left ventricular and atrial volumes, left ventricular mass, LVEF, and circulating cardiac biomarkers. CONCLUSIONS: EMPRESS-MI will assess the effect of the SGLT2 inhibitor empagliflozin on cardiac remodelling in patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction after an acute MI.

Blood-based epigenome-wide analyses of chronic low-grade inflammation across diverse population cohorts.

Chronic inflammation is a hallmark of age-related disease states. The effectiveness of inflammatory proteins including C-reactive protein (CRP) in assessing long-term inflammation is hindered by their phasic nature. DNA methylation (DNAm) signatures of CRP may act as more reliable markers of chronic inflammation. We show that inter-individual differences in DNAm capture 50% of the variance in circulating CRP (N = 17,936, Generation Scotland). We develop a series of DNAm predictors of CRP using state-of-the-art algorithms. An elastic-net-regression-based predictor outperformed competing methods and explained 18% of phenotypic variance in the Lothian Birth Cohort of 1936 (LBC1936) cohort, doubling that of existing DNAm predictors. DNAm predictors performed comparably in four additional test cohorts (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, Health for Life in Singapore, Southall and Brent Revisited, and LBC1921), including for individuals of diverse genetic ancestry and different age groups. The best-performing predictor surpassed assay-measured CRP and a genetic score in its associations with 26 health outcomes. Our findings forge new avenues for assessing chronic low-grade inflammation in diverse populations.

Socioeconomic deprivation and illness trajectory in the Scottish population after COVID-19 hospitalization.

BACKGROUND: The associations between deprivation and illness trajectory after hospitalisation for coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) are uncertain. METHODS: A prospective, multicentre cohort study was conducted on post-COVID-19 patients, enrolled either in-hospital or shortly post-discharge. Two evaluations were carried out: an initial assessment and a follow-up at 28-60 days post-discharge. The study encompassed research blood tests, patient-reported outcome measures, and multisystem imaging (including chest computed tomography (CT) with pulmonary and coronary angiography, cardiovascular and renal magnetic resonance imaging). Primary and secondary outcomes were analysed in relation to socioeconomic status, using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD). The EQ-5D-5L, Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire (BIPQ), Patient Health Questionnaire-4 (PHQ-4) for Anxiety and Depression, and the Duke Activity Status Index (DASI) were used to assess health status. RESULTS: Of the 252 enrolled patients (mean age 55.0 ± 12.0 years; 40% female; 23% with diabetes), deprivation status was linked with increased BMI and diabetes prevalence. 186 (74%) returned for the follow-up. Within this group, findings indicated associations between deprivation and lung abnormalities (p = 0.0085), coronary artery disease (p = 0.0128), and renal inflammation (p = 0.0421). Furthermore, patients with higher deprivation exhibited worse scores in health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L, p = 0.0084), illness perception (BIPQ, p = 0.0004), anxiety and depression levels (PHQ-4, p = 0.0038), and diminished physical activity (DASI, p = 0.002). At the 3-month mark, those with greater deprivation showed a higher frequency of referrals to secondary care due to ongoing COVID-19 symptoms (p = 0.0438). However, clinical outcomes were not influenced by deprivation. CONCLUSIONS: In a post-hospital COVID-19 population, socioeconomic deprivation was associated with impaired health status and secondary care episodes. Deprivation influences illness trajectory after COVID-19.

In our study, we aimed to understand how socioeconomic factors impact recovery from COVID-19 following hospitalisation. We followed 252 patients, collecting health data and utilising advanced imaging techniques. We discovered that individuals from deprived areas experienced more severe health complications, reported worse quality of life, and required more specialist care. However, their clinical outcomes were not significantly different. This underscores that socioeconomic deprivation affects health recovery, underlining the need for tailored care for these individuals. Our findings emphasise the importance of considering socioeconomic factors in recovery plans post-COVID-19, potentially improving healthcare for those in deprived areas.

5-year follow-up of the randomised Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT) of continued support for weight loss maintenance in the UK: an extension study.

BACKGROUND: In DiRECT, a randomised controlled effectiveness trial, weight management intervention after 2 years resulted in mean weight loss of 7·6 kg, with 36% of participants in remission of type 2 diabetes. Of 36 in the intervention group who maintained over 10 kg weight loss at 2 years, 29 (81%) were in remission. Continued low-intensity dietary support was then offered up to 5 years from baseline to intervention participants, aiming to maintain weight loss and gain clinical benefits. This extension study was designed to provide observed outcomes at 5 years. METHODS: The DiRECT trial took place in primary care practices in the UK. Participants were individuals aged 20-65 years who had less than 6 years' duration of type 2 diabetes, a BMI greater than 27 kg/m2, and were not on insulin. The intervention consisted of withdrawal of antidiabetic and antihypertensive drugs, total diet replacement (825-853 kcal per day formula diet for 12-20 weeks), stepped food reintroduction (2-8 weeks), and then structured support for weight-loss maintenance. After sharing the 2-year results with all participants, UK National Health Service data were collected annually until year 5 from remaining intervention participants who received low-intensity dietary support, intervention withdrawals, and the original randomly allocated groups. The primary outcome was remission of type 2 diabetes; having established in the DiRECT trial that sustained weight loss was the dominant driver of remission, this was assumed for the Extension study. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number 03267836. FINDINGS: Between July 25, 2014, and Aug 5, 2016, 149 participants were randomly assigned to the intervention group and 149 were assigned to the control group in the original DiRECT study. After 2 years, all intervention participants still in the trial (101 [68%] of 149) were approached to receive low-intensity support for a further 3 years. 95 (94%) of 101 were able to continue and consented and were allocated to the DiRECT extension group. 54 participants were allocated to the non-extension group, where intervention was withdrawn. At 5 years, DiRECT extension participants (n=85) lost an average of 6·1 kg, with 11 (13%) of 85 in remission. Compared with the non-extension group, DiRECT extension participants had more visits with HbA1c <48 mmol/mol (<6·5%; 36% vs 17%, p=0·0004), without glucose-lowering medication (62% vs 30%, p<0·0001), and in remission (34% vs 12%, p<0·0001). Original control participants (n=149) had mean weight loss 4·6 kg (n=82), and 5 (5%) of 93 were in remission. Compared with control participants, original intervention participants had more visits with weight more than 5% below baseline (61% vs 29%, p<0·0001), HbA1c below 48 mmol/mol (29% vs 15%, p=0·0002), without antidiabetic medication (51% vs 16%, p<0·0001), and in remission (27% vs 4%, p<0·0001). Of those in remission at year 2, 26% remained in remission at 5 years. Serious adverse events in the original intervention group (4·8 events per 100 patient-years) were under half those in the control group (10·2 per 100 patient-years, p=0·0080). INTERPRETATION: The extended DiRECT intervention was associated with greater aggregated and absolute weight loss, and suggested improved health status over 5 years. FUNDING: Diabetes UK.

Impact of weight loss on cancer-related proteins in serum: results from a cluster randomised controlled trial of individuals with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes is associated with higher risk of several cancer types. However, the biological intermediates driving this relationship are not fully understood. As novel interventions for treating and managing type 2 diabetes become increasingly available, whether they also disrupt the pathways leading to increased cancer risk is currently unknown. We investigated the effect of a type 2 diabetes intervention, in the form of intentional weight loss, on circulating proteins associated with cancer risk to gain insight into potential mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and adiposity with cancer development. METHODS: Fasting serum samples from participants with diabetes enrolled in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT) receiving the Counterweight-Plus weight-loss programme (intervention, N = 117, mean weight-loss 10 kg, 46% diabetes remission) or best-practice care by guidelines (control, N = 143, mean weight-loss 1 kg, 4% diabetes remission) were subject to proteomic analysis using the Olink Oncology-II platform (48% of participants were female; 52% male). To identify proteins which may be altered by the weight-loss intervention, the difference in protein levels between groups at baseline and 1 year was examined using linear regression. Mendelian randomization (MR) was performed to extend these results to evaluate cancer risk and elucidate possible biological mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and cancer development. MR analyses were conducted using independent datasets, including large cancer meta-analyses, UK Biobank, and FinnGen, to estimate potential causal relationships between proteins modified during intentional weight loss and the risk of colorectal, breast, endometrial, gallbladder, liver, and pancreatic cancers. FINDINGS: Nine proteins were modified by the intervention: glycoprotein Nmb; furin; Wnt inhibitory factor 1; toll-like receptor 3; pancreatic prohormone; erb-b2 receptor tyrosine kinase 2; hepatocyte growth factor; endothelial cell specific molecule 1 and Ret proto-oncogene (Holm corrected P-value <0.05). Mendelian randomization analyses indicated a causal relationship between predicted circulating furin and glycoprotein Nmb on breast cancer risk (odds ratio (OR) = 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.67-0.99, P-value = 0.03; and OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.78-0.99, P-value = 0.04 respectively), though these results were not supported in sensitivity analyses examining violations of MR assumptions. INTERPRETATION: Intentional weight loss among individuals with recently diagnosed diabetes may modify levels of cancer-related proteins in serum. Further evaluation of the proteins identified in this analysis could reveal molecular pathways that mediate the effect of adiposity and type 2 diabetes on cancer risk. FUNDING: The main sources of funding for this work were Diabetes UK, Cancer Research UK, World Cancer Research Fund, and Wellcome.

Elevated lipoprotein(a) increases risk of subsequent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and coronary revascularisation in incident ASCVD patients: A cohort study from the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Elevated lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is a genetic driver for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). We aimed to provide novel insights into the associated risk of elevated versus normal Lp(a) levels on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in an incident ASCVD cohort. METHODS: This was an observational cohort study of incident ASCVD patients. MACE counts and incidence rates (IRs) per 100-person-years were reported for patients with normal (<65 nmol/L) and elevated (>150 nmol/L) Lp(a) within the first year after incident ASCVD diagnosis and overall follow-up. Cox proportional hazard models quantified the risk of MACE associated with a 100 nmol/L increase in Lp(a). RESULTS: The study cohort included 32,537 incident ASCVD patients; 5204 with elevated and 22,257 with normal Lp(a). Of those with elevated Lp(a), 41.2% had a subsequent MACE, versus 35.61% with normal Lp(a). Within the first year of follow-up, the IRs of composite MACE and coronary revascularisation were significantly higher (p < 0.001) in patients with elevated versus normal Lp(a) (IR difference 6.79 and 4.66). This trend was also observed in the overall follow-up (median 4.7 years). Using time to first subsequent MACE, a 100 nmol/L increase in Lp(a) was associated with an 8.0% increased risk of composite MACE, and 18.6% increased risk of coronary revascularisation during the overall follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: The association of elevated Lp(a) with increased risk of subsequent MACE and coronary revascularisation highlights a population who may benefit from earlier and more targeted intervention for cardiovascular risk including Lp(a), particularly within the first year after ASCVD diagnosis. Proactive Lp(a) testing as part of routine clinical practice can help identify and better manage these higher-risk individuals.

Epigenetic Contributions to Clinical Risk Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is among the leading causes of death worldwide. The discovery of new omics biomarkers could help to improve risk stratification algorithms and expand our understanding of molecular pathways contributing to the disease. Here, ASSIGN-a cardiovascular risk prediction tool recommended for use in Scotland-was examined in tandem with epigenetic and proteomic features in risk prediction models in ≥12 657 participants from the Generation Scotland cohort. METHODS: Previously generated DNA methylation-derived epigenetic scores (EpiScores) for 109 protein levels were considered, in addition to both measured levels and an EpiScore for cTnI (cardiac troponin I). The associations between individual protein EpiScores and the CVD risk were examined using Cox regression (ncases≥1274; ncontrols≥11 383) and visualized in a tailored R application. Splitting the cohort into independent training (n=6880) and test (n=3659) subsets, a composite CVD EpiScore was then developed. RESULTS: Sixty-five protein EpiScores were associated with incident CVD independently of ASSIGN and the measured concentration of cTnI (P<0.05), over a follow-up of up to 16 years of electronic health record linkage. The most significant EpiScores were for proteins involved in metabolic, immune response, and tissue development/regeneration pathways. A composite CVD EpiScore (based on 45 protein EpiScores) was a significant predictor of CVD risk independent of ASSIGN and the concentration of cTnI (hazard ratio, 1.32; P=3.7×10-3; 0.3% increase in C-statistic). CONCLUSIONS: EpiScores for circulating protein levels are associated with CVD risk independent of traditional risk factors and may increase our understanding of the etiology of the disease.

Neuropeptide Y is elevated in heart failure and is an independent predictor of outcomes.

AIMS: Neuropeptide Y (NPY) is the most abundant neuropeptide found in the heart and is released alongside norepinephrine following prolonged sympathetic activation, a process that is implicated in the pathophysiology of heart failure (HF). In patients with severely impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) undergoing cardiac resynchronization therapy, higher levels of NPY measured in coronary sinus blood, are associated with poorer outcome. The aim was to examine the association of peripheral venous NPY levels and outcomes in a HF population with a range of LVEF, using a highly sensitive and specific assay. METHODS AND RESULTS: The association between NPY and the composite outcome of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization, its components, and all-cause mortality was examined using Cox regression analyses among 833 patients using a threshold of elevated NPY identified through binary recursive partitioning adjusted for prognostic variables including estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), ejection fraction and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP). The mean value of NPY was 25.8 ± 18.2 pg/ml. Patients with high NPY levels (≥29 pg/ml) compared with low values were older (73 ± 10 vs. 71 ± 11 years), more often male (58.5% vs. 55.6%), had higher BNP levels (583 [261-1096] vs. 440 [227-829] pg/ml), lower eGFR (46.4 ± 13.9 vs. 52.4 ± 11.7 ml/min/1.73 m2 ), and were more often treated with diuretics. There was no associated risk of HF hospitalization with NPY levels ≥29 vs. <29 pg/ml. Higher NPY levels were associated with a greater risk of cardiovascular and all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio 1.56 [95% confidence interval 1.21-2.10], p = 0.003 and 1.30 [1.04-1.62], p = 0.02, respectively). There was no associated risk of HF hospitalization with higher NPY levels. CONCLUSIONS: Peripherally measured NPY is an independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular death even after adjustment for other prognostic variables, including BNP.

Twenty-four-hour ambulatory, but not clinic blood pressure associates with leptin in young adults with overweight or obesity: The African-PREDICT study.

Hypertension and obesity are known pro-inflammatory conditions, and limited studies explored various blood pressure modalities and inflammatory markers in young adults with overweight or obesity (OW/OB). We assessed the relationship of clinic and 24 h ambulatory blood pressure with an array of inflammatory markers in young adults with OW/OB. This cross-sectional study included women and men of Black and White ethnicity (n = 1194) with a median age of 24.5 ± 3.12 years. Participants were divided into normal weight and OW/OB groups according to body mass index. Clinic and 24 h ambulatory systolic and diastolic blood pressure were measured. Inflammatory markers included leptin, interleukin-6, interleukin-8, tumour necrosis factor-α, adiponectin, interleukin-10, and C-reactive protein. After adjustments for age, sex, and ethnicity, the OW/OB group had higher blood pressure and an overall worse inflammatory profile compared to the normal weight group (all p ≤ 0.024). In the OW/OB group, 24 h systolic (r = 0.22; p < 0.001) and diastolic blood pressure (r = 0.28; p < 0.001) correlated with leptin, independent of age, sex, and ethnicity. In fully adjusted regression models, 24 h systolic blood pressure (adj.R2 = 0.25; ß = 0.28; p = 0.035) and diastolic blood pressure (adj.R2 = 0.10; ß = 0.32; p = 0.034), associated with leptin in the OW/OB group and significance remained with additional adjustments for visceral adiposity index. Twenty-four-hour ambulatory, but not clinic blood pressure, is related to leptin in young adults with OW/OB. Leptin shows a stronger relationship with adiposity when compared to other inflammatory markers and may play a role in subcutaneous adiposity-related increased blood pressure.

Multiple Cardiac Biomarkers to Improve Prediction of Cardiovascular Events: Findings from the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have investigated whether single cardiac biomarkers improve cardiovascular risk prediction for primary prevention but whether a combined approach could further improve risk prediction is unclear. We aimed to test a sex-specific, combined cardiac biomarker approach for cardiovascular risk prediction. METHODS: In the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), cardiac troponin I (cTnI), cardiac troponin T (cTnT), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured in stored serum using automated immunoassays. Sex-specific Cox models that included SCORE2 risk factors evaluated addition of single and combined biomarkers for prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Combined biomarker models were compared to a baseline model that included SCORE2 risk factors. RESULTS: The study population comprised 18 383 individuals (58.9% women, median age of 48 years [25th-75th percentile, 35-58 years]). During the median follow up of 11.6 (25th-75th percentile, 10.8-13.0) years, MACE occurred in 942 (5.1%) individuals. The greatest increase in discrimination with addition of individual biomarkers to the base model was for women GDF-15 and for men NT-proBNP (change in c-index: + 0.010 for women and +0.005 for men). For women, combined biomarker models that included GDF-15 and NT-proBNP (+0.012) or GDF-15 and cTnI (+0.013), but not CRP or cTnT, further improved discrimination. For men, combined biomarker models that included NT-proBNP and GDF-15 (+0.007), NT-proBNP and cTnI (+0.006), or NT-proBNP and CRP (+0.008), but not cTnT, further improved discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: A combined biomarker approach, particularly the use of GDF-15, NT-proBNP and cTnI, further refined cardiovascular risk estimates.

The metabolomic signature of weight loss and remission in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT).

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: High-throughput metabolomics technologies in a variety of study designs have demonstrated a consistent metabolomic signature of overweight and type 2 diabetes. However, the extent to which these metabolomic patterns can be reversed with weight loss and diabetes remission has been weakly investigated. We aimed to characterise the metabolomic consequences of a weight-loss intervention in individuals with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We analysed 574 fasted serum samples collected within an existing RCT (the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial [DiRECT]) (N=298). In the trial, participating primary care practices were randomly assigned (1:1) to provide either a weight management programme (intervention) or best-practice care by guidelines (control) treatment to individuals with type 2 diabetes. Here, metabolomics analysis was performed on samples collected at baseline and 12 months using both untargeted MS and targeted 1H-NMR spectroscopy. Multivariable regression models were fitted to evaluate the effect of the intervention on metabolite levels. RESULTS: Decreases in branched-chain amino acids, sugars and LDL triglycerides, and increases in sphingolipids, plasmalogens and metabolites related to fatty acid metabolism were associated with the intervention (Holm-corrected p<0.05). In individuals who lost more than 9 kg between baseline and 12 months, those who achieved diabetes remission saw greater reductions in glucose, fructose and mannose, compared with those who did not achieve remission. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We have characterised the metabolomic effects of an integrated weight management programme previously shown to deliver weight loss and diabetes remission. A large proportion of the metabolome appears to be modifiable. Patterns of change were largely and strikingly opposite to perturbances previously documented with the development of type 2 diabetes. DATA AVAILABILITY: The data used for analysis are available on a research data repository ( https://researchdata.gla.ac.uk/ ) with access given to researchers subject to appropriate data sharing agreements. Metabolite data preparation, data pre-processing, statistical analyses and figure generation were performed in R Studio v.1.0.143 using R v.4.0.2. The R code for this study has been made publicly available on GitHub at: https://github.com/lauracorbin/metabolomics_of_direct .

Using trials of caloric restriction and bariatric surgery to explore the effects of body mass index on the circulating proteome.

Thousands of proteins circulate in the bloodstream; identifying those which associate with weight and intervention-induced weight loss may help explain mechanisms of diseases associated with adiposity. We aimed to identify consistent protein signatures of weight loss across independent studies capturing changes in body mass index (BMI). We analysed proteomic data from studies implementing caloric restriction (Diabetes Remission Clinical trial) and bariatric surgery (By-Band-Sleeve), using SomaLogic and Olink Explore1536 technologies, respectively. Linear mixed models were used to estimate the effect of the interventions on circulating proteins. Twenty-three proteins were altered in a consistent direction after both bariatric surgery and caloric restriction, suggesting that these proteins are modulated by weight change, independent of intervention type. We also integrated Mendelian randomisation (MR) estimates of the effect of BMI on proteins measured by SomaLogic from a UK blood donor cohort as a third line of causal evidence. These MR estimates provided further corroborative evidence for a role of BMI in regulating the levels of six proteins including alcohol dehydrogenase-4, nogo receptor and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist protein. These results indicate the importance of triangulation in interrogating causal relationships; further study into the role of proteins modulated by weight in disease is now warranted.