Make It or Break It? Injury Impacts More Than Half of Deselected Athletes Who Dropped Out of the High-Performance Pathway System. A 4-Year Retrospective Cohort Study.

To investigate: (1) the injury epidemiology in an Australian academy; (2) how athletes transition through the high-performance sport (HPS) pathway; and (3) why athletes leave this HPS program. This retrospective cohort study was conducted at an Australian HPS academy over a 4-year period. Medical attention injuries were prospectively recorded. Injury incidence rates (IIR) and burden were calculated per 365 athlete-days, according to sport, sex, and pathway level. Athlete pathway levels were mapped to the Foundations, Talent, Elite, and Mastery (FTEM) framework. Reasons for athletes transitioning out were reported. Four hundred and eighty-one injuries were reported across 124 athletes at an IIR of 2.09 injuries per 365 athlete-days (95% CI = 1.91-2.29). Most athletes (103, 83.1%) were injured at least once over the 4-year period. IIRs increased (IRR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.06-1.29, p = 0.001) as athletes progressed through the pathway. The most common reason for athlete attrition was deselection due to performance (n = 18), with 55.6% of these athletes sustaining an injury in the season prior to deselection. Injury burden was highest at E2 (119.5 days absence per 365 athlete-days (95% CI = 62.18-229.67)) and lowest at T4 (30.47 days absence per 365 athlete-days (95% CI = 21.98-42.24)). Injury occurrence is common across HPS, with IIRs increasing as athletes progressed to higher talent levels. Deselection due to poor performance was the main attrition factor, with more than half the deselected athletes impacted by injury prior to deselection. This study highlights an increased risk of deselection, following injury, and indicates the need for further development of prevention strategies targeting pathway athletes.

The development of a cognitive screening protocol for Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander peoples: the Guddi Way screen.

Background Many Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander peoples are exposed to risk factors for cognitive impairment. However, culturally appropriate methods for identifying potential cognitive impairment are lacking. This paper reports on the development of a screen and interview protocol designed to flag possible cognitive impairments and psychosocial disability in Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander adults over the age of 16years. Methods The Guddi Way screen includes items relating to cognition and mental functions across multiple cognitive domains. The screen is straightforward, brief, and able to be administered by non-clinicians with training. Results Early results suggest the Guddi Way screen is reliable and culturally acceptable, and correctly flags cognitive dysfunction among Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander adults. Conclusions The screen shows promise as a culturally appropriate and culturally developed method to identify the possibility of cognitive impairments and psychosocial disability in Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander adults. A flag on the Guddi Way screen indicates the need for referral to an experienced neuropsychologist or neuropsychiatrist for further assessment and can also assist in guiding support services.

Falls in focus: an analysis of the rate of falls in 25 Australian residential aged care facilities from 2019 to 2021, pre- and during COVID-19 lockdowns.

INTRODUCTION: During 2020-2021 Australia maintained comparatively low rates of COVID-19 in the community and residential aged care facilities (RAC) due to stringent public health measures such as lockdowns. However, the public health measures implemented may have had unintended impacts on critical RAC resident health outcomes, such as falls, due to routine care disruptions and aged care resident isolation. We utilised a longitudinal data to assess the association between COVID-19 lockdowns and the rate of falls in RAC settings. METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study was conduct using routinely collected data from 25 RAC facilities from one non-profit aged care provider in Sydney, Australia. The study included 2,996 long term residents between March 2019 and March 2021. The outcome measures were all falls, injurious falls, and falls assessed as requiring hospitalisation. Generalised estimating equations (GEE) were applied to determine the association between COVID-19 lockdown periods and fall-related outcomes while adjusting for confounders and seasonality. RESULTS: During the study period 11,658 falls were recorded. Residents frequently experienced at least one fall during the study period (median: 1, interquartile range: 0-4). During Lockdown 1 (March-June 2020) the rate of all falls increased 32% (IRR 1.32, 95% CI 1.19-1.46, p < 0.01) and the rate of injurious falls increased by 28% (IRR 1.28, 95% CI 1.12-1.46, p < 0.01) compared to pre-pandemic rates. The rate of falls assessed as requiring hospitalisation remained unchanged during Lockdown 1 (IRR 1.07, 95% CI 0.86-1.32, p = 0.519). During Lockdown 2 (Dec 2020-Jan 2021) the rate of all falls, injurious falls, and falls assessed as requiring hospitalisation did not change significantly compared to pre-pandemic rates. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that the consequences of stringent COVID-19 restrictions, as seen in Lockdown 1, produced changes in residents' care which contributed to more falls and associated harm. The subsequent lockdown, which were less restrictive and occurred after staff had gained experience, was associated with no significant increase in falls rate. The nature and extent of lockdowns implemented for infection control in RAC need to balance multiple potential adverse effects. Factors which facilitated resilience during this period require exploration in future research.

Alcohol pharmacotherapy dispensing trends in Australia between 2006 and 2023.

AIMS: This study aimed to investigate acamprosate and naltrexone dispensing patterns in Australia. METHODS: A 10% representative sample of medications subsidized by the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) was used to identify individuals who were dispensed naltrexone or acamprosate between January 2006 and December 2023. Data were used to examine concurrent dispensing, medication switching and treatment episode length, as well as changes in prevalence and incidence over time. RESULTS: During the study, we identified 22 745 individuals with a total of 117 548 dispensed prescriptions (45.3% naltrexone, 43.0% acamprosate, and 11.7% concurrent dispensing). Alcohol pharmacotherapy dispensing occurred in 1354 per 100 000 individuals. It is estimated that 2.9% of individuals with an alcohol use disorder in Australia are receiving a PBS-listed pharmacological treatment. For both pharmacotherapies, individuals were most likely to be male (60.0%) and 35-54 years of age (56.0%). Individuals were more likely to switch from acamprosate to naltrexone rather than the reverse. From 2006 and 2023, the number of prevalent individuals treated with an alcohol pharmacotherapy significantly increased, driven mainly the use of naltrexone, which more than doubled over the study period. Incident naltrexone-treated individuals were more likely to remain on treatment for the recommended minimum 3-month period compared to acamprosate treated individuals, although overall dispensing for at least 3 months was low (5.1%). CONCLUSIONS: In Australia between 2006 and 2023, rates of naltrexone dispensing have substantially increased, while acamprosate dispensing showed minimal changes. However, the use of alcohol pharmacotherapies remains low compared with the likely prevalence of alcohol use disorders.

Australian Youth Self-Harm Atlas: spatial modelling and mapping of self-harm prevalence and related risk and protective factors to inform youth suicide prevention strategies.

AIMS: Suicide prevention strategies have shifted in many countries, from a national approach to one that is regionally tailored and responsive to local community needs. Previous Australian studies support this approach. However, most studies have focused on suicide deaths which may not fully capture a complete understanding of prevention needs, and few have focused on the priority population of youth. This was the first nationwide study to examine regional variability of self-harm prevalence and related factors in Australian young people. METHODS: A random sample of Australian adolescents (12-17-year-olds) were recruited as part of the Young Minds Matter (YMM) survey. Participants completed self-report questions on self-harm (i.e., non-suicidal self-harm and suicide attempts) in the previous 12 months. Using mixed effects regressions, an area-level model was built with YMM and Census data to produce out-of-sample small area predictions for self-harm prevalence. Spatial unit of analysis was Statistical Area Level 1 (average population 400 people), and all prevalence estimates were updated to 2019. RESULTS: Across Australia, there was large variability in youth self-harm prevalence estimates. Northern Territory, Western Australia, and South Australia had the highest estimated state prevalence. Psychological distress and depression were factors which best predicted self-harm at an individual level. At an area-level, the strongest predictor was a high percentage of single unemployed parents, while being in an area where ≥30% of parents were born overseas was associated with reduced odds of self-harm. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified characteristics of regions with lower and higher youth self-harm risk. These findings should assist governments and communities with developing and implementing regionally appropriate youth suicide prevention interventions and initiatives.

Changes in the incidence of melanoma in Australia, 2006-2021, by age group and ancestry: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the incidence of melanoma in Australia among people with ancestries associated with low, moderate, or high risk of melanoma, by sex and 5-year age group; to establish whether age-specific incidence rates by ancestry risk group have changed over time. STUDY DESIGN: Modelling study; United States (SEER database) melanoma incidence rates for representative ancestral populations and Australian census data (2006, 2011, 2016, 2021) used to estimate Australian melanoma incidence rates by ancestry-based risk. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Australia, 2006-2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age-specific invasive melanoma incidence rates, and average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-specific melanoma rates, by ancestry-based risk group, sex, and 5-year age group. RESULTS: The proportion of people in Australia who reported high risk (European) ancestry declined from 85.3% in 2006 to 71.1% in 2021. The estimated age-standardised melanoma incidence rate was higher for people with high risk ancestry (2021: males, 82.2 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 80.5-83.8] cases per 100 000 population; females, 58.5 [95% CI, 57.0-59.9] cases per 100 000 population) than for all Australians (males, 67.8 [95% CI, 66.5-69.2] cases per 100 000 population; females, 45.4 [95% CI, 44.3-46.5] cases per 100 000 population). AAPCs were consistently positive for Australians aged 50 years or older, both overall and for people with high risk ancestry, but were statistically significant only for some age groups beyond 65 years. AAPCs were negative for people aged 34 years or younger, but were generally not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Melanoma incidence has declined in some younger age groups in Australia, including among people with high risk ancestry. Social and behavioural changes over the same period that lead to lower levels of ultraviolet radiation exposure probably contributed to these changes.

Melanoma overdiagnosis: What do we know and what do we do?

BACKGROUND: Melanoma overdiagnosis occurs when melanomas, not destined to cause morbidity or death in a patient's lifetime, are identified and treated. OBJECTIVE: This study considers the causes and magnitude of melanoma overdiagnosis in Australia. We also speculate about a possible benefit of overdiagnosis in Australia; namely, a reduction in excess deaths in the geographical areas where melanoma is diagnosed most frequently. DISCUSSION: Overdiagnosis can arguably be mitigated by factors that reduce the number of lesions treated for each melanoma identified. Data from the Australian Cancer Atlas show that there is a reduction in excess deaths from melanoma in geographical areas where diagnostic rates are higher (Pearson correlation coefficient r=-0.5978, 95% CI: -0.6243 to -0.5699, P<0.0001); this being the strongest inverse correlation observed among the 20 cancer types in the Atlas. Is early diagnosis of actual life-threatening melanomas in these geographical regions impacting survival? Further research is planned.

An overview of Buruli ulcer in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Buruli ulcer (BU) is caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, an environmental pathogen that causes severe skin and soft-tissue necrosis. In Australia, cases of BU are acquired in endemic regions, which include Victoria and Far North Queensland, but those who have visited these regions can present to health practitioners anywhere. OBJECTIVE: This article provides Australian general practitioners with an overview of BU, including its epidemiology, transmission, clinical features, diagnosis and management. DISCUSSION: BU can manifest as an ulcer or as a non-ulcerated skin lesion, such as a plaque, nodule or oedema. Diagnosis can be achieved with a dedicated Mycobacterium ulcerans polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test performed on a wound swab. Swabs on non-ulcerated disease have a high false negative rate, and a PCR test should be performed on a tissue biopsy to confirm disease. Most cases are managed with prolonged antibiotic therapy - commonly a combination of oral rifampicin and clarithromycin or fluroquinolone (moxifloxacin or ciprofloxacin) - and wound dressings.

Tobacco, nicotine, and cannabis use and exposure in an Australian Indigenous population during pregnancy: A protocol to measure parental and foetal exposure and outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The Australian National Perinatal Data Collection collates all live and stillbirths from States and Territories in Australia. In that database, maternal cigarette smoking is noted twice (smoking <20 weeks gestation; smoking >20 weeks gestation). Cannabis use and other forms of nicotine use, for example vaping and nicotine replacement therapy, are nor reported. The 2021 report shows the rate of smoking for Australian Indigenous mothers was 42% compared with 11% for Australian non-Indigenous mothers. Evidence shows that Indigenous babies exposed to maternal smoking have a higher rate of adverse outcomes compared to non-Indigenous babies exposed to maternal smoking (S1 File). OBJECTIVES: The reasons for the differences in health outcome between Indigenous and non-Indigenous pregnancies exposed to tobacco and nicotine is unknown but will be explored in this project through a number of activities. Firstly, the patterns of parental and household tobacco, nicotine and cannabis use and exposure will be mapped during pregnancy. Secondly, a range of biological samples will be collected to enable the first determination of Australian Indigenous people's nicotine and cannabis metabolism during pregnancy; this assessment will be informed by pharmacogenomic analysis. Thirdly, the pharmacokinetic and pharmacogenomic findings will be considered against maternal, placental, foetal and neonatal outcomes. Lastly, an assessment of population health literacy and risk perception related to tobacco, nicotine and cannabis products peri-pregnancy will be undertaken. METHODS: This is a community-driven, co-designed, prospective, mixed-method observational study with regional Queensland parents expecting an Australian Indigenous baby and their close house-hold contacts during the peri-gestational period. The research utilises a multi-pronged and multi-disciplinary approach to explore interlinked objectives. RESULTS: A sample of 80 mothers expecting an Australian Indigenous baby will be recruited. This sample size will allow estimation of at least 90% sensitivity and specificity for the screening tool which maps the patterns of tobacco and nicotine use and exposure versus urinary cotinine with 95% CI within ±7% of the point estimate. The sample size required for other aspects of the research is less (pharmacokinetic and genomic n = 50, and the placental aspects n = 40), however from all 80 mothers, all samples will be collected. CONCLUSIONS: Results will be reported using the STROBE guidelines for observational studies. FORWARD: We acknowledge the Traditional Custodians, the Butchulla people, of the lands and waters upon which this research is conducted. We acknowledge their continuing connections to country and pay our respects to Elders past, present and emerging. Notation: In this document, the terms Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and Indigenous are used interchangeably for Australia's First Nations People. No disrespect is intended, and we acknowledge the rich cultural diversity of the groups of peoples that are the Traditional Custodians of the land with which they identify and with whom they share a connection and ancestry.

Experiences and Satisfaction With Telehealth During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Perspectives of Patients With Cancer in Australia.

PURPOSE: There has been a significant rise in telehealth consultations across Australia since COVID-19 was declared a worldwide pandemic. We aimed to obtain patient feedback on telehealth, identify key strengths and weaknesses, and assess the feasibility of telehealth beyond the pandemic. METHODS: A survey was developed to obtain patient feedback on telehealth. Patients attending medical oncology clinics at St George Hospital and Sutherland Hospital from April 1, 2020, to May 31, 2020, were identified. Patients who were reviewed via phone or videoconference were included in this study. Eligible patients were texted or emailed a survey link within a week of their telehealth consultation. Surveys were anonymous and completion of the survey implied informed consent. Patients who did not have a mobile number or e-mail were excluded from this study. RESULTS: One thousand fifty-nine patients were reviewed during the study period, of whom 644 (60%) were reviewed via telehealth. The survey response rate was 36.3% (230 patients responded of 634 surveys sent). Ten telehealth patients did not have a mobile number or email and were excluded. Sixty-seven percent of telehealth consults were for active surveillance, 31% for prechemotherapy/treatment reviews, 1.6% for best supportive care, and 0.5% for new consults. Seventy percent of patients were satisfied that their medical needs were met via telehealth. Ninety percent wanted another telehealth consult, and 73% wanted telehealth to continue post resolution of the pandemic. Minimizing risk of exposure to COVID-19 and patient convenience were identified as key strengths of telehealth while absence of physical examination was the main disadvantage. CONCLUSION: Majority of the patients surveyed were satisfied that telehealth safely met their medical needs. There is a considerable demand for telehealth to continue beyond the pandemic.

Impact of COVID-19 early in the pandemic on the mental health and wellbeing of adolescents in Australia and Cambodia: a cross-national comparison using a quantitative descriptive and comparative approach.

The impact of COVID-19 on the mental health and wellbeing of adolescents is a major concern. Most research has been conducted only in more economically developed countries. Using data from two similar surveys administered during July-September, 2020 in Australia (a high-income country) and Cambodia (a low-middle income country), this paper examined the impact early in the pandemic on the mental health and wellbeing of adolescents in the two countries. We found that COVID-19 had mostly negative impacts on participants' mental health; threats to personal safety; education; support for schooling; basic necessities such as food, income, employment, and housing; and responsibilities at home. This finding suggests that even short-term disasters may have negative repercussions, and regardless of differences in wealth, culture, and government response. We found that threats to personal safety appeared to be more prevalent in Cambodia than in Australia, the impact on mental health of the Cambodian participants may have been greater than reported, and that, in both countries, support for online or distance schooling during periods of lockdown was wanting, particularly at the state and school levels. This study will contribute to our understanding of the impact of major disruptive global events on young people in both more economically developed and developing countries.

Gendered pleasures, risks and policies: Using a logic of candidacy to explore paradoxical roles of alcohol as a good/poor health behaviour for Australian women early during the pandemic.

Drinking alcohol facilitates pleasure for women while also elevating disease risk. Symbolic expectations of what alcohol 'does in' life per lay insight (relax, identity-work, connect) sit in tension with scientific realities about what alcohol 'does to' women's bodies (elevate chronic disease risks such as breast cancer). Policy must work amidst - and despite - these paradoxes to reduce harm(s) to women by attending to the gendered and emergent configurations of both realities. This paper applies a logic of candidacy to explore women's alcohol consumption and pleasure through candidacies of wellness in addition to risk through candidacies of disease (e.g. breast cancer). Using qualitative data collected via 56 interviews with Australian women (n = 48) during early pandemic countermeasures, we explore how risk perceptions attached to alcohol (like breast cancer) co-exist with use-values of alcohol in daily life and elucidate alcohol's paradoxical role in women's heuristics of good/poor health behaviours. Women were aged 25-64 years, experienced varying life circumstances (per a multidimensional measure of social class including economic, social and cultural capital) and living conditions (i.e. partnered/single, un/employed, children/no children). We collated coding structures from data within both projects; used deductive inferences to understand alcohol's paradoxical role in candidacies of wellness and disease; abductively explored women's prioritisation of co-existing candidacies during the pandemic; and retroductively theorised prioritisations per evolving pandemic-inflected constructions of alcohol-related gendered risk/s and pleasure/s. Our analysis illuminates the ways alcohol was configured as a pleasure and form of wellness in relation to stress, productivity and respectability. It also demonstrates how gender was relationally enacted amidst the priorities, discourses and materialities enfolding women's lives during the pandemic. We consider the impact of policy regulation of aggressive alcohol marketing and banal availability of alcohol in pandemic environments and outline gender-responsive, multi-level policy options to reduce alcohol harms to women.

Pregnancy-Related Factors and Breast Cancer Risk for Women Across a Range of Familial Risk.

Importance: Few studies have investigated whether the associations between pregnancy-related factors and breast cancer (BC) risk differ by underlying BC susceptibility. Evidence regarding variation in BC risk is critical to understanding BC causes and for developing effective risk-based screening guidelines. Objective: To examine the association between pregnancy-related factors and BC risk, including modification by a of BC where scores are based on age and BC family history. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included participants from the prospective Family Study Cohort (ProF-SC), which includes the 6 sites of the Breast Cancer Family Registry (US, Canada, and Australia) and the Kathleen Cuningham Foundation Consortium (Australia). Analyses were performed in a cohort of women enrolled from 1992 to 2011 without any personal history of BC who were followed up through 2017 with a median (range) follow-up of 10 (1-23) years. Data were analyzed from March 1992 to March 2017. Exposures: Parity, number of full-term pregnancies (FTP), age at first FTP, years since last FTP, and breastfeeding. Main Outcomes and Measures: BC diagnoses were obtained through self-report or report by a first-degree relative and confirmed through pathology and data linkages. Cox proportional hazards regression models estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CIs for each exposure, examining modification by PARS of BC. Differences were assessed by estrogen receptor (ER) subtype. Results: The study included 17 274 women (mean [SD] age, 46.7 [15.1] years; 791 African American or Black participants [4.6%], 1399 Hispanic or Latinx participants [8.2%], and 13 790 White participants [80.7%]) with 943 prospectively ascertained BC cases. Compared with nulliparous women, BC risk was higher after a recent pregnancy for those women with higher PARS (last FTP 0-5 years HR for interaction, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.13-2.07; P for interaction < .001). Associations between other exposures were limited to ER-negative disease. ER-negative BC was positively associated with increasing PARS and increasing years since last FTP (P for interaction < .001) with higher risk for recent pregnancy vs nulliparous women (last FTP 0-5 years HR for interaction, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.03-2.31). ER-negative BC was positively associated with increasing PARS and being aged 20 years or older vs less than 20 years at first FTP (P for interaction = .002) and inversely associated with multiparity vs nulliparity (P for interaction = .01). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of women with no prior BC diagnoses, associations between pregnancy-related factors and BC risk were modified by PARS, with greater associations observed for ER-negative BC.

Sleep Behavior in Royal Australian Navy Shift Workers by Shift and Exposure to the SleepTank App.

INTRODUCTION: Rotating shiftwork schedules are known to disrupt sleep in a manner that can negatively impact safety. Consumer sleep technologies (CSTs) may be a useful tool for sleep tracking, but the standard feedback provided by CSTs may not be salient to shift-working populations. SleepTank is an app that uses the total sleep time data scored by a CST to compute a percentage that equates hours of sleep to the fuel in a car and warns the user to sleep when the "tank" is low. Royal Australian Navy aircraft maintenance workers operating on a novel rotational shift schedule were given Fitbit Versa 2s to assess sleep timing, duration, and efficiency across a 10-week period. Half of the participants had access to just the Fitbit app while the other half had access to Fitbit and the SleepTank app. The goal of this study was to evaluate differences in sleep behavior between shifts using an off-the-shelf CST and to investigate the potential of the SleepTank app to increase sleep duration during the 10-week rotational shift work schedule. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Royal Australian Navy volunteers agreed to wear a Fitbit Versa 2 with the SleepTank app (SleepTank condition), or without the SleepTank app (Controls), for up to 10 weeks from May to July 2023 during the trial of a novel shift rotation schedule. Participants from across 6 units worked a combination of early (6:00 AM to 2:00 PM), day (7:30 AM to 4:30 PM), late (4:00 PM to 12:00 AM), and night shifts (12:00 AM to 6:00 AM) or stable day shifts (6:00 AM to 4:00 PM). Differences in sleep behavior (time in bed, total sleep time, bedtime, wake time, sleep efficiency [SE]) between conditions and shift types were tested using Analysis of Variance. This study was approved by the Australian Departments of Defence and Veterans' Affairs Human Research Ethics Committee. RESULTS: Thirty-four participants completed the full study (n = 17 Controls; n = 17 SleepTank). There was a significant effect of shift type on 24-hour time in bed (TIB24; F(4,9) = 8.15, P < .001, η2 = 0.15) and total sleep time (TST24; F(4,9) = 8.54, P < .001, η2 = 0.18); both were shorter in early shifts and night shifts compared to other shift types. TIB24 and TST24 were not significantly different between conditions, but there was a trend for greater SE in the SleepTank condition relative to Controls (F(1,9) = 2.99, P = .08, η2 = 0.11). CONCLUSIONS: Sleep data collected by Fitbit Versa 2s indicated shorter sleep duration (TIB24, TST24) for Royal Australian Navy workers during early and late shifts relative to stable day shifts. Access to the SleepTank app did not greatly influence measures of sleep duration but may be protective against fatigue by affecting SE. Further research is needed to evaluate the utility of the SleepTank app as a means of improving sleep hygiene in real-world, shift-working environments.

Investigating the trajectory of functional disability in systemic sclerosis: group-based trajectory modelling of the Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index.

OBJECTIVES: To identify the trajectories and clinical associations of functional disability in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study (ASCS) participants meeting ACR/EULAR criteria for SSc recruited within 5 years of disease onset, with ≥2 Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI) scores were included. Group based trajectory modelling (GBTM) was used to identify the number and shape of HAQ-DI trajectories. Between group comparisons were made using the chi-squared test, two-sample t-test or Wilcoxon rank-sum test as appropriate. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify features associated with trajectory group membership. Survival analyses were performed using Kaplan Meier and Cox proportional hazard modelling. RESULTS: We identified two HAQ-DI trajectory groups within 426 ASCS participants with incident SSc: low-stable disability (n=221, 52%), and high-increasing disability (n=205, 48%). Participants with high-increasing disability were older at disease onset, more likely to have diffuse SSc (dcSSc), cardiopulmonary disease, multimorbidity, digital ulcers, and gastrointestinal involvement (all p≤0.01), as was use of immunosuppression (p<0.01). Multimorbidity was associated with high-increasing trajectory group membership (OR3.1, 95%CI1.1-8.8, p=0.04); independently, multiple SSc features were also strongly associated including dcSSc (OR2.3, 95%CI1.3-4.2, p<0.01), proximal weakness (OR7.3, 95%CI2.0-27.1, p<0.01) and joint contractures (OR2.7, 95%CI1.3-5.3, p<0.01). High-increasing physical disability was associated with an almost two-fold increased risk of mortality (HR1.9, 95%CI1.0-3.8, p=0.05), and higher symptom burden. CONCLUSIONS: Two trajectories of functional disability in SSc were identified. Those with high-increasing functional disability had a distinct clinical phenotype and worse survival compared to those with low-stable functional disability. These data highlight the pervasive nature of physical disability in SSc, and its prognostic importance.

The burden and determinants of fatigue in incident and prevalent systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the burden and clinical associations of fatigue in systemic sclerosis (SSc) as measured by FACIT-Fatigue scores. METHODS: Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study participants with ≥1 FACIT-Fatigue score were included. Participants were divided into those with incident SSc (≤5 years SSc duration at recruitment and FACIT-Fatigue score recorded within 5 years of disease onset) or prevalent SSc (first FACIT-Fatigue score recorded >5 years after SSc onset). Generalised estimating equations were used to model change in FACIT-Fatigue scores over time, expressed as an increasing (improving) or decreasing (worsening) score. RESULTS: Of 859 participants, 215 had incident SSc and 644 prevalent SSc. First-recorded FACIT-Fatigue scores were similar in those with incident (37 units, IQR 25-45.5) and prevalent SSc (36 units, IQR 23-44; p=0.17), as were lowest-ever recorded FACIT-Fatigue scores (incident 23 units; prevalent 22 units, p=0.75). In incident SSc, higher skin scores (regression coefficient (RC) -1.5 units, 95%CI -2.3 to -0.8), PAH (RC -8.2, 95%CI -16.5 to 0.1) and reduced left ventricular function (RC -10.6, 95%CI -18.3 to -2.8) were associated with more severe fatigue. In prevalent SSc, higher skin scores (RC -0.6, 95%CI -1.3 to 0), gastrointestinal symptoms (RC -6.6, 95%CI -9.0 to -4.2), hypoalbuminaemia (RC -2.8, 95%CI -5.0 to -0.7), BMI<18.5kg/m2 (RC -6.3, 95%CI -10.3 to -2.2), raised CRP (RC -3.1, 95%CI -4.7 to -1.5), and anaemia (RC -1.7, 95%CI -3.5 to 0.1) were associated with more severe fatigue. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of fatigue is substantial in both incident and prevalent SSc. Cardiopulmonary and gastrointestinal involvement are associated with worse fatigue.