Global motion filtered nonlinear mutual information analysis: Enhancing dynamic portfolio strategies.

The complex financial networks, with their nonlinear nature, often exhibit considerable noises, inhibiting the analysis of the market dynamics and portfolio optimization. Existing studies mainly focus on the application of the global motion filtering on the linear matrix to reduce the noise interference. To minimize the noise in complex financial networks and enhance timing strategies, we introduce an advanced methodology employing global motion filtering on nonlinear dynamic networks derived from mutual information. Subsequently, we construct investment portfolios, focusing on peripheral stocks in both the Chinese and American markets. We utilize the growth and decline patterns of the eigenvalue associated with the global motion to identify trends in collective market movement, revealing the distinctive portfolio performance during periods of reinforced and weakened collective movements and further enhancing the strategy performance. Notably, this is the first instance of applying global motion filtering to mutual information networks to construct an investment portfolio focused on peripheral stocks. The comparative analysis demonstrates that portfolios comprising peripheral stocks within global-motion-filtered mutual information networks exhibit higher Sharpe and Sortino ratios compared to those derived from global-motion-filtered Pearson correlation networks, as well as from full mutual information and Pearson correlation matrices. Moreover, the performance of our strategies proves robust across bearish markets, bullish markets, and turbulent market conditions. Beyond enhancing the portfolio optimization, our results provide significant potential implications for diverse research fields such as biological, atmospheric, and neural sciences.

Quantifying economic vulnerabilities induced by interdependent networks.

Under economic globalization, countries are linked through trade and investments. This economic interdependence creates vulnerabilities. The indirect vulnerability induced by interdependent networks of trade and investments can put a country's economy at risk, but this risk has yet to be systematically quantified and investigated. In this paper, we developed the novel Potential Indirect Vulnerability Index (PIVI) to capture how interdependencies between networks of trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) may induce economic vulnerabilities. The model consisted of three main components: a target country (the importer of goods), an investing country (the exporter of FDI), and the intermediary countries that export commodities to the target country and receive FDI from the investing country, serving as conduits of the vulnerabilities caused indirectly by the investing country. The PIVI quantifies the indirect vulnerabilities based on the product of two fractions: 1) the dependency of the target country on commodities from each intermediary country; and 2) the dependency of each intermediary country on FDI from the investing country. We demonstrated the utility of PIVI by examining the US economy's vulnerability to China using 2019 trade and FDI data. Several Asian countries and a mix of agricultural products and raw materials were identified as conduits through which China could potentially influence the US economy. Vietnam was a sizeable risk because, while it has been a primary source of many US imports, it also received about 30% of its FDI from China. The US policy makers might opt to increase diversity in trade partners or to promote investment in countries such as Vietnam. We also applied the PIVI analysis to critical minerals, identifying cobalt, tungsten, and copper as the most vulnerability-inducing among them. PIVI is a flexible metric than can be aggregated and modified to provide a more nuanced and focused assessment of an economy's vulnerability.

Systemic risk spillover between the stock market and banking deposits: Evidence from a sustainability perspective in the South Asian countries.

This research explores the link between stock markets and banking deposits in South Asian (Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal) countries. This study empirically examines the systemic risk potential of financial institutions in South Asia using current systemic risk statistics. Yearly data on stock prices and banking deposits from January 2000 to December 2020 were analyzed using a two-stage process. In the first phase, we measure VaR (value at risk), and in the second step, we measure the DCC GARCH model for our empirical analysis. The study findings reveal systemic risk spillover between the stock markets of South Asian countries and the relevant country's banking system deposits. The policymakers can use our study findings to create a more sustainable financial sector.

Can co-ordination advancement of two-way FDI improve resource misallocation? Evidence from 285 cities in China.

During the past 40 years of reform and opening-up, the implementation of an unbalanced enhancement strategy has led to severe resource misallocation, making the mitigation and rectification of this misallocation an urgent issue. This paper utilizes urban data from China between 2006 and 2020 to examine the impact of two-way foreign direct investment (FDI) on resource misallocation, as well as the pathways through which coordinated advancement of two-way FDI affects resource misallocation. After undergoing a series of robustness and endogeneity tests, the conclusion remains stable. Mechanism testing reveals that coordinated advancement of two-way FDI improves capital resource misallocation by enhancing the enhancement level of the financial industry, while exacerbating labor misallocation by increasing labor costs. This paper integrates the coordinated advancement of two-way FDI and resource misallocation into the same analytical framework, proposing policy recommendations to alleviate China's resource misallocation issue.

Analysis of human capital effects introducing Bayesian quantile regression in the process of industrial structural upgrading.

In recent years, with the continuous evolution of the global economy and the adjustment of industrial structures, the understanding of the role played by human capital in the process of economic development has become particularly important. However, existing research on the impact of human capital on economic growth often adopts traditional regression methods, failing to comprehensively consider the heterogeneity and nonlinear relationships in the data. Therefore, to more accurately understand the influence of human capital on economic growth at different stages, this study employs Bayesian quantile regression method (BQRM). By incorporating BQRM, a better capture of the dynamic effects of human capital in the process of industrial structure upgrading is achieved, offering policymakers more targeted and effective policy recommendations to drive the economy towards a more sustainable direction. Additionally, the experiment also examines the impact of other key factors such as technological progress, capital investment, and labor market conditions on economic growth. These factors, combined with human capital, collectively promote the upgrading of industrial structure and the sustainable development of the economy. This study, by introducing BQRM, aims to fill the research gap regarding the impact of human capital on economic development during the industrial structural upgrading process. In the backdrop of the ongoing evolution of the global economy and adjustments in industrial structure, understanding the role of human capital in economic development becomes particularly crucial. To better comprehend the direct impact of human capital, the experiment collected macroeconomic data, including GDP, industrial structure, labor skills, and human capital, from different regions over the past 20 years. By establishing a dynamic panel data model, this study delves into the trends in the impact of human capital at various stages of industrial structure upgrading. The research findings indicate that during the high-speed growth phase, the contribution of human capital to GDP growth is 15.2% ± 2.1%, rising to 23.8% ± 3.4% during the period of industrial structure adjustment. Technological progress, capital investment, and labor market conditions also significantly influence economic growth at different stages. In terms of innovation improvement, this study pioneers the use of BQRM to gain a deeper understanding of the role of human capital in economic development, providing more targeted and effective policy recommendations. Ultimately, to promote sustainable economic development, the experiment proposes concrete and targeted policy recommendations, emphasizing government support in training and skill development. This study not only fills a research gap in the relevant field but also provides substantive references for decision-makers, driving the economy towards a more sustainable direction.

Share pledge and accounting conservatism in share-pledging firms: Evidence from a natural experiment in China.

This paper focuses on firms in which insiders pledge their shares as collateral for loans. By investigating a natural experiment-China's enactment of provisions on share reductions that restrict pledge creditors' cashing-out behavior-we find that pledging firms exhibited more conservative financial reporting after the implementation than non-pledging firms. This effect was pronounced in firms with a higher ratio of pledged shares, a longer maturation period of the pledged shares, and more concentrated pledge creditors. Additionally, we show that pledging firms increased their accounting conservatism after the shock, leading to a lower risk of margin calls and stock price crashes. The effect on accounting conservatism was stronger in firms with controlling pledgers or when the pledge creditors were banks. Our results remained consistent after we performed several robustness tests. These behaviors are economically logical because the provisions heighten creditors' liquidity risk and the potential losses of loan default. Pledging shareholders embrace more accounting conservatism to mitigate creditors' concerns about agency costs and avoid triggering margin calls. Our findings provide direct support that creditors have a real demand for accounting conservatism and highlight the impact of shareholder-creditor conflicts on the financial reporting policies of pledging firms.

Uncertainty in banking and debt financing of firms in Vietnam.

This study explores the effects of banking uncertainty on firms' debt financing. Employing data from 2007 to 2022 of Vietnam-a bank-based economy, we document that banking uncertainty negatively impacts corporate debt. The impact firmly holds across various debt maturities and sources, with the most predominant driver witnessed in bank debt. We also investigate the potential underlying mechanism linking banking uncertainty to debt financing, thereby validating the working of three crucial channels, including increased costs of debt, substitution of trade credit, and contractions in firm investment. Furthermore, conducting extended analysis, we find that debt financing exhibits more pronounced reactions to banking uncertainty for firms with closer ties to banks or during macroeconomic shocks, as captured by the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings survive after robustness checks by alternative measurement, static and dynamic econometric models, and endogeneity controls.

Impact of National Centralized Drug Procurement policy on chemical pharmaceutical enterprises' R&D investment: a difference-in-differences analysis in China.

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of the National Centralized Drug Procurement (NCDP) policy on chemical pharmaceutical enterprises' R&D investment and provide references for improving NCDP policy design and encouraging innovation in the pharmaceutical industry. Methods: Using the panel data of 102 Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed enterprises from 2016 to 2022 under the chemical pharmaceutical classification of Shenwan in Wind database as the research sample, this study developed difference-in-differences (DID) models on bid-winning and bid-non-winning enterprises, respectively, to evaluate the impact of NCDP policy on their R&D investment. In addition, this study tested the heterogeneity of bid-winning enterprises based on the bid success rate, the decline of drug price, and enterprise size. Results: The NCDP policy could encourage chemical pharmaceutical companies to increase R&D investment, but the low bid success rate and excessive drug price reduction would reduce their R&D enthusiasm, especially for small- and medium-sized enterprises. Discussion: It is suggested that the NCDP policy should be further improved: first, revise the bidding rule of the NCDP policy and increase the bid success rate so that more enterprises can win bids, and second, to solve the problem of excessive drug price reduction, evaluate the rationality of bid-winning prices, and introduce a two-way selection mechanism between medical institutions and supply enterprises. Integrate pharmacoeconomic evaluation into the NCDP rules to form a benign competition among enterprises. Third, attention should be paid to supporting policies for small- and medium-sized enterprises. By increasing procurement volume, shortening payment time limits, and increasing the proportion of advance payments, enterprises' cash flow shortages can be alleviated, thus achieving fairness and inclusiveness in the implementation of the NCDP policy.

Mining the relationship between COVID-19 sentiment and market performance.

In March 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 precipitated one of the most significant stock market downturns in recent history. This paper explores the relationship between public sentiment related to COVID-19 and stock market fluctuations during the different phases of the pandemic. Utilizing natural language processing and sentiment analysis, we examine Twitter data for pandemic-related keywords to assess whether these sentiments can predict changes in stock market trends. Our analysis extends to additional datasets: one annotated by market experts to integrate professional financial sentiment with market dynamics, and another comprising long-term social media sentiment data to observe changes in public sentiment from the pandemic phase to the endemic phase. Our findings indicate a strong correlation between the sentiments expressed on social media and market volatility, particularly sentiments directly associated with stocks. These insights validate the effectiveness of our Sentiment(S)-LSTM model, which helps to understand the evolving dynamics between public sentiment and stock market trends from 2020 through 2023, as the situation shifts from pandemic to endemic and approaches new normalcy.

How backers' behavior affects financing performance in agri-food reward-based crowdfunding: The moderating mechanism of initiator characteristics and project attributes.

Crowdfunding is a new type of financing favored by entrepreneurs in need of capital. Financing performance is a key concern for crowdfunding project initiators. Although a growing number of studies have investigated the factors that affect the financing performance of crowdfunding projects, there are still some issues that need to be further clarified. How does the investment behavior of backers, as the supply side of finance, affect the financing performance of project in reward-based crowdfunding? What are the moderating mechanisms of this influence by initiator characteristics and project attributes? Based on a panel data set from Zhongchou, a famous agri-food crowdfunding platform in China, this paper finds that the investment speed, the investment intensity, the number of early backers, the backers' comments, and the number of selfless backers all have significant effects on financing performance. The core trust factors of initiator characteristics and project attributes play a moderating role in the relationship between backer investment behavior and financing performance, but there are differences in the moderating mechanisms. Based on the research conclusions, practical enlightenment is proposed for initiators, crowdfunding platforms, and regulators.

Gender effects in crowdfunded business loan campaigns.

Crowdfunding is a growing source of finance for entrepreneurs. In this paper, we investigate the existence of a gender effect in the time needed to obtain a business loan through crowdfunding. Using data from three Dutch crowdfunding platforms, survival analysis of the time to completion for 934 business loan campaigns shows that female entrepreneurs have a 20% shorter campaign completion time compared to male entrepreneurs, whereas couples do not differ from males. This effect persists across the different platforms. Subsequent analysis shows that female entrepreneurs do not have the disadvantage they face in traditional lending channels when requesting funds through crowdfunding, and that herding behavior by investors benefits female entrepreneurs most.

The effect of health literacy on health investment intention: a cross-sectional study among petrochemical employees in China.

Backgrounds: In the petrochemical industry, employees are exposed to various health hazards, which pose serious challenges to their health and hinder the sustainable development of the petrochemical industry. Investing in health has proved a potential strategy to enhance general health. However, global health investment is notably insufficient, mainly due to the public's limited intention to invest in their health. While past research has identified various determinants of health investment intentions, the relationship between health literacy and health investment intention remains somewhat controversial and needs more empirical validation. Objectives: This study aims to assess the level of health literacy and health investment intention among employees in one of China's largest petrochemical companies and to explore the effect of health literacy on health investment intention. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in a petrochemical company. The valid sample size for this study was 39,911 respondents. Data were collected using a designed questionnaire, including socio-demographic information, questions about health investment intention, and the "2020 National Health Literacy Monitoring Questionnaire." Several statistical analysis methods were employed, including descriptive analysis, Chi-square test, logistic regression, and multiple linear regression. Results: The study disclosed an average health literacy score of 56.11 (SD = 10.34) among employees, with 52.1% surpassing the qualification threshold. The "Chronic Disease" dimension exhibited the lowest qualification rate at 33.0%. Furthermore, 71.5% of the employees expressed an intention to invest in health, yet a significant portion (34.5%) opted for the minimal investment choice, less than 2,000 RMB. Logistic regression analysis indicated a positive correlation between health literacy and health investment intention (OR = 1.474; p < 0.001). This association's robustness was further indicated by multiple linear regression analyses (ß = 0.086, p<0.001). Conclusion: The employees' health literacy significantly exceeds the national average for Chinese citizens, yet the qualified rate in the "Chronic Disease" dimension remains notably low. A majority of employees have the intention to invest in health, albeit modestly. Furthermore, while health literacy does positively influence health investment intention, this effect is somewhat limited. Accordingly, personalized Health education should be prioritized, with a focus on improving chronic disease knowledge and facilitating the internalization of health knowledge into health beliefs.

Global Financing Facility investments for vulnerable populations: content analysis regarding maternal and newborn health and stillbirths in 11 African countries, 2015 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: The Global Financing Facility (GFF) was launched in 2015 to catalyse increased domestic and external financing for reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, adolescent health, and nutrition. Half of the deaths along this continuum are neonatal deaths, stillbirths or maternal deaths; yet these topics receive the least aid financing across the continuum. OBJECTIVES: To conduct a policy content analysis of maternal and newborn health (MNH), including stillbirths, in GFF country planning documents, and assess the mortality burden related to the investment. METHODS: Content analysis was conducted on 24 GFF policy documents, investment cases and project appraisal documents (PADs), from 11 African countries. We used a systematic data extraction approach and applied a framework for analysis considering mindset, measures, and money for MNH interventions and mentions of mortality outcomes. We compared PAD investments to MNH-related deaths by country. RESULTS: For these 11 countries, USD$1,894 million of new funds were allocated through the PADs, including USD$303 million (16%) from GFF. All documents had strong content on MNH, with particular focus on pregnancy and childbirth interventions. The investment cases commonly included comprehensive results frameworks, and PADs generally had less technical content and fewer indicators. Mortality outcomes were mentioned, especially for maternal. Stillbirths were rarely included as targets. Countries had differing approaches to funding descriptions. PAD allocations are commensurate with the burden. CONCLUSIONS: The GFF country plans present a promising start in addressing MNH. Emphasising links between investments and burden, explicitly including stillbirth, and highlighting high-impact packages, as appropriate, could potentially increase impact.

Main finding: Maternal and newborn health care packages are strongly included in the Global Financing Facility policy documents for 11 African countries, especially regarding pregnancy and childbirth, though less for stillbirth, or postnatal care, or small and sick newborn care.Added knowledge: This study is the first independent content analysis of Global Financing Facility investment cases and related project appraisal documents, revealing mostly consistent content for maternal and newborn health across documents and overall correlation between national mortality burden and investments committed.Global health impact for policy and action: The Global Financing Facility have demonstrated promising initial investments for maternal and newborn health, although there are also missed opportunities for strengthening, especially for some neonatal high-impact packages and counting impact on stillbirths.

Towards sustainable development in resource-based cities: Assessing the effects of extraregional technology and investment on the low-carbon transition.

Resource-based cities (RBCs) worldwide with a single industrial structure face the double pressures of sustainable development to promote development (i.e., industrial upgrading) and mitigating carbon emissions. Although building extraregional linkages is a potential path to advance this goal, the action of these linkages still requires study since there are many contradictory conclusions in the literature. To fill this gap, the study addresses the relationship between extraregional linkages, industrial upgrading, and the low-carbon transition in RBCs from 2012 to 2019 with the help of econometric panel models with proposed variables (e.g., the coupling coordination degree of extraregional technology and investment, CCD) built from multiple new data sources. The results are as follows. First, the diversification and specialization of the local industrial structure in RBCs both reduce carbon efficiency (CE). Second, extraregional technology, on its own, does not directly enhance CE as investments do. Third, the CCD not only serves to augment CE but also acts as a mitigating factor against CE reduction during industrial diversification. Based on the above findings, distinct low-carbon transition pathways are suggested for various types of RBCs, considering their positions within the extraregional linkage network.

Comparing the willingness to invest returns among green, sustainability, and blue bonds.

This study explores whether investors' willingness to invest returns (WTIR) differs across environmental and sustainability bonds (ESBs) with varying scopes. Employing the double-bound dichotomous choice contingent valuation method (DBDC-CVM), the research surveyed Japanese retail investors to estimate their average levels of WTIR for green, sustainability, and blue bonds, respectively. The study discovered that investors are willing to invest in bonds with a stronger environmental focus such as green and blue bonds at a lower return rate, in contrast to sustainability bonds that address broader social issues. This suggests the importance for issuers of ESBs to clarify the specific focus of the bonds when promoting investment in such securities. Moreover, knowledge of ESBs can increase the WTIR, highlighting the need for policies aimed at enhancing information dissemination. Additionally, the levels of social responsibility and altruism among investors can increase the WTIR, emphasizing the significance of environmental and sustainability education. This underscores the significance of educating individuals to foster greater interest in environmental and social issues, cultivating a mindset that extends to caring about the well-being of others.

Achieving zero emission targets: The influence of green bonds on clean energy investment and environmental quality.

The effectiveness of green finance in driving clean energy and environmental sustainability in the current era is receiving attention. Therefore, this study proposes an empirical framework highlighting the effects of green bonds (GB) on clean energy investment (CEI), clean energy investment efficiency (CEE) and environmental sustainability of 29 green bond issuing countries between 2014 and 2022. Using system and difference GMM approaches, this study finds that (i) green bond issuance drives clean energy investment. (ii) Green bonds sufficiently enhance the selected countries' environmental quality. These results supplement the promotion of green bonds in increasing the transfer of funds towards renewable energy projects by reducing reliance on fossil fuels. (iii) Using Driscoll & Kraay, Fully Modified-OLS, and changing the dependent variable, this study further supported the idea that green bonds effectively promote the CEE and environmental sustainability of the chosen countries. (iv) Similarly, this study conducted income heterogeneity, showing that green bonds improve high- and middle-income countries' CEI and environmental quality. (v) Finally, the results indicate that resource consumption escalates CO2 emissions by declining the CEI. Technological innovations increase CEI, whereas they do not mitigate CO2 emissions directly, hinting at the requirement for a comprehensive approach. Therefore, inclusive policies on green bond frameworks, robust incentives, and rigorous environmental criteria should be implemented to attract investment in clean energy development and ensure the environmental sustainability of the selected countries.

Accelerating agricultural innovation in Latin America and the Caribbean: The crucial role of public investment data in science.

In the face of rapid global changes, the agricultural sector in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) stands at a crossroads. The region, known for its rich biodiversity and considerable agricultural output, is increasingly challenged by climate change, political and economic pressures, and the need for efficient and effective innovations to sustain the transformation of agrifood systems toward more sustainable practices.

The impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty on micro-enterprise investment efficiency-Empirical evidence from China.

The impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty (EPU) on micro-level entities has garnered increasing attention in economic circles. This study examines the influence of EPU on the efficiency of investments made by China's A-share listed companies between 2016 and 2021. Using a panel fixed effect model for analysis, the research reveals that EPU has a notable adverse effect on the investment efficiency of enterprises. Furthermore, it suggests that advancements in digital finance, strong ESG performance, and enhanced entrepreneurial confidence can mitigate this negative impact effectively. The study also highlights that enterprises with lower valuation, shareholder control, limited audit reputation, and no bank connections are more vulnerable to the impact of EPU on investment efficiency compared to those with higher valuation, manager control, strong audit reputation, and bank connections. Consequently, future efforts should be directed towards enhancing the stability and relevance of economic policies, promoting digital finance, and enhancing corporate governance structures.