Probabilidade de adolescentes cometerem suicídio superou a de jovens adultos na pandemia

Uma pesquisa sobre a mortalidade por suicídio no Brasil revelou que a probabilidade de casos entre adolescentes tem crescido de forma mais intensa do que em outras faixas etárias. O estudo de tendência temporal realizado por pesquisadores da Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública (Ensp/Fiocruz) mostra que, entre 2000 e 2022, há indicativo de alta da proporção de suicídios em relação ao total de mortes em todos os grupos estudados.

Medicaid Expansion and Mortality Among Persons Who Were Formerly Incarcerated.

Importance: Since 2014, Medicaid expansion has been implemented in many states across the US, increasing health care access among vulnerable populations, including formerly incarcerated people who experience higher mortality rates than the general population. Objective: To examine population-level association of Medicaid expansion with postrelease mortality from all causes, unintentional drug overdoses, opioid overdoses, polydrug overdoses, suicides, and homicides among formerly incarcerated people in Rhode Island (RI), which expanded Medicaid, compared with North Carolina (NC), which did not expand Medicaid during the study period. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cohort study was conducted using incarceration release data from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2018, linked to death records from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2019, on individuals released from incarceration in RI and NC. Data analysis was performed from August 20, 2022, to February 15, 2024. Participants included those aged 18 years or older who were released from incarceration. Individuals who were temporarily held during ongoing judicial proceedings, died during incarceration, or not released from incarceration during the study period were excluded. Exposure: Full Medicaid expansion in RI effective January 1, 2014. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mortality from all causes, unintentional drug overdoses, unintentional opioid and polydrug overdoses, suicides, and homicides. Results: Between 2009 and 2018, 17 824 individuals were released from RI prisons (mean [SD] age, 38.39 [10.85] years; 31 512 [89.1%] male) and 160 861 were released from NC prisons (mean [SD] age, 38.28 [10.84] years; 209 021 [87.5%] male). Compared with NC, people who were formerly incarcerated in RI experienced a sustained decrease of 72 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI, -108 to -36 per 100 000 person-years) in all-cause mortality per quarter after Medicaid expansion. Similar decreases were observed in RI in drug overdose deaths (-172 per 100 000 person-years per 6 months; 95% CI, -226 to -117 per 100 000 person-years), including opioid and polydrug overdoses, and homicide deaths (-23 per 100 000 person-years per year; 95% CI, -50 to 4 per 100 000 person-years) after Medicaid expansion. Suicide mortality did not change after Medicaid expansion. After Medicaid expansion in RI, non-Hispanic White individuals experienced 3 times greater sustained decreases in all-cause mortality than all racially minoritized individuals combined, while non-Hispanic Black individuals did not experience any substantial benefits. There was no modification by sex. Individuals aged 30 years or older experienced greater all-cause mortality reduction after Medicaid expansion than those younger than 30 years. Conclusions and Relevance: Medicaid expansion in RI was associated with a decrease in all-cause, overdose, and homicide mortality among formerly incarcerated people. However, these decreases were most observed among White individuals, while racially minoritized individuals received little to no benefits in the studied outcomes.

Long-term exposure to wildland fire smoke PM2.5 and mortality in the contiguous United States.

Despite the substantial evidence on the health effects of short-term exposure to ambient fine particles (PM2.5), including increasing studies focusing on those from wildland fire smoke, the impacts of long-term wildland fire smoke PM2.5 exposure remain unclear. We investigated the association between long-term exposure to wildland fire smoke PM2.5 and nonaccidental mortality and mortality from a wide range of specific causes in all 3,108 counties in the contiguous United States, 2007 to 2020. Controlling for nonsmoke PM2.5, air temperature, and unmeasured spatial and temporal confounders, we found a nonlinear association between 12-mo moving average concentration of smoke PM2.5 and monthly nonaccidental mortality rate. Relative to a month with the long-term smoke PM2.5 exposure below 0.1 µg/m3, nonaccidental mortality increased by 0.16 to 0.63 and 2.11 deaths per 100,000 people per month when the 12-mo moving average of PM2.5 concentration was of 0.1 to 5 and 5+ µg/m3, respectively. Cardiovascular, ischemic heart disease, digestive, endocrine, diabetes, mental, and chronic kidney disease mortality were all found to be associated with long-term wildland fire smoke PM2.5 exposure. Smoke PM2.5 contributed to approximately 11,415 nonaccidental deaths/y (95% CI: 6,754, 16,075) in the contiguous United States. Higher smoke PM2.5-related increases in mortality rates were found for people aged 65 and above. Positive interaction effects with extreme heat were also observed. Our study identified the detrimental effects of long-term exposure to wildland fire smoke PM2.5 on a wide range of mortality outcomes, underscoring the need for public health actions and communications that span the health risks of both short- and long-term exposure.

The association between short-term temperature variability and mortality in Virginia.

The objective of this study is to determine the relationship between short-term temperature variability on neighboring days and mortality. The change in maximum temperature in Northern Virginia, Richmond, Roanoke, and Norfolk, Virginia, on neighboring days was calculated from airport observations and associated with total mortality over a multi-county area surrounding each weather station. The association between day-to-day temperature change and mortality, lagged over a 28-day period, was analyzed using distributed lag non-linear models that controlled for air quality, temporal trends, and other factors. Days following large temperature declines were associated with an increased risk of mortality in three of the four locations, and temperature increases were linked to higher mortality risk in two cities. For example, the relative risk of mortality for a 12°C daily temperature decline (1st percentile) was 1.74 [0.92, 3.27] in Roanoke and 1.16 [0.70, 1.92] in Richmond. The net effect of short-term temperature increases was smaller, with the largest relative risk of 1.03 [0.58, 1.83] for a 12°C increase (99th percentile) in maximum temperature in Norfolk. In Richmond and Roanoke, there was an observed lagged effect of increased mortality (maximum relative risks varying from 1.08 to 1.10) that extended from 5 to 25 days associated with large temperature declines of 15°C or more. In contrast, there was a strong and immediate (lag 0-3 day) increase in the risk of mortality (1.10 to 1.15) in northern Virginia and Norfolk when the temperature increase exceeded 10°C (short-term warming). In general, consecutive day warming had a more immediate mortality impact than short-term cooling, when the peak mortality is lagged by one week or more. However, cooling of at least 10°C after a hot (summer) day reduced mortality relative to comparable cooling following a cold (winter) day, which is associated with high mortality. This differential mortality response as a function of temperature suggests that there is some relationship between average temperature, temperature variability, and season. The findings of this study may be useful to public health officials in developing mitigation strategies to reduce the adverse health risks associated with short-term temperature variability.

Projections of Extreme Temperature-Related Deaths in the US.

Importance: Extreme heat in the US is increasing due to climate change, while extreme cold is projected to decline. Understanding how extreme temperature along with demographic changes will affect population health is important for devising policies to mitigate the health outcome of climate change. Objective: To assess the burden of extreme temperature-related deaths in the contiguous US currently (2008-2019) and estimate the burden in the mid-21st century (2036-2065). Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used historical (1979-2000) daily mean temperatures to calculate monthly extreme heat (>97.5th percentile value) and extreme cold days (<2.5th percentile value) for all contiguous US counties for 2008 to 2019 (current period). Temperature projections from 20 climate models and county population projections were used to estimate extreme temperature-related deaths for 2036 to 2065 (mid-21st century period). Data were analyzed from November 2023 to July 2024. Exposure: Current monthly frequency of extreme heat days and projected mid-21st century frequency using 2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5, representing socioeconomic development with a lower emissions increase, and SSP5-8.5, representing higher emissions increase. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean annual estimated number of extreme temperature-related excess deaths. Poisson regression model with county, month, and year fixed effects was used to estimate the association between extreme temperature and monthly all-cause mortality for older adults (aged ≥65 years) and younger adults (aged 18-64 years). Results: Across the contiguous US, extreme temperature days were associated with 8248.6 (95% CI, 4242.6-12 254.6) deaths annually in the current period and with 19 348.7 (95% CI, 11 388.7-27 308.6) projected deaths in the SSP2-4.5 scenario and 26 574.0 (95% CI, 15 408.0-37 740.1) in the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The mortality data included 30 924 133 decedents, of whom 15 573 699 were males (50.4%), with 6.3% of Hispanic ethnicity, 11.5% of non-Hispanic Black race, and 79.3% of non-Hispanic White race. Non-Hispanic Black adults (278.2%; 95% CI, 158.9%-397.5%) and Hispanic adults (537.5%; 95% CI, 261.6%-813.4%) were projected to have greater increases in extreme temperature-related deaths from the current period to the mid-21st century period compared with non-Hispanic White adults (70.8%; 95% CI, -5.8% to 147.3%). Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study found that extreme temperature-related deaths in the contiguous US were projected to increase substantially by mid-21st century, with certain populations, such as non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic adults, projected to disproportionately experience this increase. The results point to the need to mitigate the adverse outcome of extreme temperatures for population health.

Poor sleep quality, dementia status and their association with all-cause mortality among older US adults.

BACKGROUND: Evidence points to associations between sleep quality, dementia, and mortality. We examined whether poor sleep quality mediated or moderated the association between dementia and mortality risk among older US adults and vice versa, and whether these associations differed by sex and by race. METHODS: The study investigated bi-directional associations between sleep quality, dementia and mortality in older US adults using data from the Health and Retirement Study (N = 6,991, mean age = 78.1y, follow-up: 2006-2020, number of deaths = 4,938). It tested interactions and mediating effects, using Cox proportional hazards models and four-way decomposition models. RESULTS: Poor sleep quality was associated with increased mortality risk, particularly among male and White older adults. However, the association was reversed in the fully adjusted model, with a 7% decrease in risk per tertile. Probable dementia was associated with a two-fold increase in mortality risk, with a stronger association found among White adults. The association was markedly attenuated in the fully adjusted models. Sleep quality-stratified models showed a stronger positive association between dementia and mortality among individuals with better sleep quality. Both mediation and interaction were involved in explaining the total effects under study, though statistically significant total effects were mainly composed of controlled direct effects. CONCLUSIONS: Poor sleep quality is directly related to mortality risk before lifestyle and health-related factors are adjusted. Dementia is linked to mortality risk, especially in individuals with better sleep quality, males, and White older adults. Future research should explore the underlying mechanisms.

Parity and post-reproductive mortality among U.S. Black and White women: Evidence from the health and retirement study.

Population health research finds women's mortality risk associated with childlessness, low parity (one child), and high parity (6+ children) in a U-shaped pattern, although U.S. studies are inconsistent overall and by race/ethnicity. Parity, however, is contingent on women's biophysiological likelihood of (in)fecundity as well as voluntary control practices that limit fertility. No studies have empirically examined infecundity differentials among women and their potential contribution to the parity-post-reproductive mortality relationship or the race/ethnic-related mortality gap. We examine 7,322 non-Hispanic Black and White women, born 1920-1941, in the Health and Retirement Study, using zero-inflation methods to estimate infecundity risk and parity by race/ethnicity. We estimate proportional hazards models [t0 1992/1998, t1 2018] to examine associations of infecundity risk, parity, early-life-course health and social statuses, and post-reproductive statuses with all-cause mortality. We find Black women's infecundity probability to be twice that of White women and their expected parity 40% higher. Infecundity risk increases mortality risk for all women, but parity-post-reproductive mortality associations differ by race/ethnicity. White women with one and 5+ children (U-shaped curve) have increased mortality risk, adjusting for infecundity risk and early-life factors; further adjustment for post-reproductive health and social status attenuates all parity-related mortality risk. Black women's parity-post-reproductive mortality associations are not statistically significant. Black women's post-reproductive mortality risk is anchored in earlier-life conditions that elevate infecundity risk. Results suggest a need to focus upstream to better elucidate race/ethnic-related social determinants of reproductive health, infecundity, parity, and mortality.

Association between psychological resilience and all-cause mortality in the Health and Retirement Study.

BACKGROUND: Psychological resilience refers to an individual's ability to cope with and adapt to challenging life circumstances and events. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to explore the association between psychological resilience and all-cause mortality in a national cohort of US older adults by a cross-sectional study. METHODS: The Health and Retirement Study (2006-2008) included 10 569 participants aged ≥50. Mortality outcomes were determined using records up to May 2021. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyse the associations between psychological resilience and all-cause mortality. Restricted cubic splines were applied to examine the association between psychological resilience and mortality risk. FINDINGS: During the follow-up period, 3489 all-cause deaths were recorded. The analysis revealed an almost linear association between psychological resilience and mortality risk. Higher levels of psychological resilience were associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality in models adjusting for attained age, sex, race and body mass index (HR=0.750 per 1 SD increase in psychological resilience; 95% CI 0.726, 0.775). This association remained statistically significant after further adjustment for self-reported diabetes, heart disease, stroke, cancer and hypertension (HR=0.786; 95% CI 0.760, 0.813). The relationship persisted even after accounting for smoking and other health-related behaviours (HR=0.813; 95% CI 0.802, 0.860). CONCLUSIONS: This cohort study highlights the association between psychological resilience and all-cause mortality in older adults in the USA. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Psychological resilience emerges as a protective factor against mortality, emphasising its importance in maintaining health and well-being.

Health Care Resource Use and Total Mortality After Hospital Admission for Severe COVID-19 Infections During the Initial Pandemic Wave in France: Descriptive Study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about post-hospital health care resource use (HRU) of patients admitted for severe COVID-19, specifically for the care of patients with postacute COVID-19 syndrome (PACS). OBJECTIVE: A list of HRU domains and items potentially related to PACS was defined, and potential PACS-related HRU (PPRH) was compared between the pre- and post-COVID-19 periods, to identify new outpatient care likely related to PACS. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted with the French National Health System claims data (SNDS). All patients hospitalized for COVID-19 between February 1, 2020, and June 30, 2020 were described and investigated for 6 months, using discharge date as index date. Patients who died during index stay or within 30 days after discharge were excluded. PPRH was assessed over the 5 months from day 31 after index date to end of follow-up, that is, for the post-COVID-19 period. For each patient, a pre-COVID-19 period was defined that covered the same calendar time in 2019, and pre-COVID-19 PPRH was assessed. Post- or pre- ratios (PP ratios) of the percentage of users were computed with their 95% CIs, and PP ratios>1.2 were considered as "major HRU change." RESULTS: The final study population included 68,822 patients (median age 64.8 years, 47% women, median follow-up duration 179.3 days). Altogether, 23% of the patients admitted due to severe COVID-19 died during the hospital stay or within the 6 months following discharge. A total of 8 HRU domains were selected to study PPRH: medical visits, technical procedures, dispensed medications, biological analyses, oxygen therapy, rehabilitation, rehospitalizations, and nurse visits. PPRs showed novel outpatient care in all domains and in most items, without specificity, with the highest ratios observed for the care of thoracic conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Patients hospitalized for severe COVID-19 during the initial pandemic wave had high morbi-mortality. The analysis of HRU domains and items most likely to be related to PACS showed that new care was commonly initiated after discharge but with no specificity, potentially suggesting that any impact of PACS was part of the overall high HRU of this population after hospital discharge. These purely descriptive results need to be completed with methods for controlling for confusion bias through subgroup analyses. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05073328; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05073328.

[Assessment of the impact on mortality of air pollution by particles in the city of Valencia during the period 2015-2017]. / Evaluación del impacto en mortalidad de la contaminación del aire por partículas en la ciudad de València en el periodo 2015-2017.

OBJECTIVE: Air pollution is a global public health issue, with particulate matter (PM) being the pollutant with the greatest impact on health. The main objective of this article was to estimate the impact of mortality attributable to particulate pollution in the city of Valencia during the period 2015-2017. METHODS: The Health Impact Assessment (HIA) methodology from the Aphekom project was used. Scenarios of a 5 µg/m3 reduction in the annual mean concentration of PM10 and PM2.5 were employed, along with the assumption of meeting the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations in effect during the study period, to estimate both short- and long-term impacts. RESULTS: The estimated average concentrations for 2015-2017 were 18.4 µg/m3 for PM10 and 12.3 µg/m3 for PM2.5. The short-term HIA, assuming a reduction of 5 µg/m3 in the averages, resulted in a total of 65.4 premature deaths that could be postponed during that period (21.8 annually), corresponding to a rate of 2.8 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. In the long term, if PM2.5 concentrations had been reduced by 5 µg/m3, 124 premature deaths could have been postponed annually. CONCLUSIONS: The annual average concentrations of these pollutants meet the limits set by European regulations. However, compared to WHO recommendations, PM2.5 levels are higher by 2.3 µg/m3. An air quality scenario in line with WHO recommendations would have resulted in a reduction of 122 premature deaths annually.

OBJETIVO: La contaminación del aire es un problema de Salud Pública de importancia global, siendo las partículas en suspensión (PM) el contaminante con mayor impacto en la salud. El objetivo principal de este artículo fue estimar el impacto en mortalidad atribuible a la contaminación por partículas en la ciudad de València en el periodo 2015-2017. METODOS: Se utilizó la metodología para la Evaluación del Impacto en Salud (EIS) del proyecto Aphekom. Se realizó un estudio descriptivo y para la correlación se emplearon los escenarios de reducción de la media anual de 5 µg/m3 en la concentración de PM10 y de PM2,5 y el supuesto de cumplir las recomendaciones de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) vigentes en el periodo a estudio para estimar el impacto a corto y largo plazo. RESULTADOS: Las concentraciones estimadas del promedio 2015-2017 para PM10 y PM2,5 fueron de 18,4 µg/m3 y 12,3 µg/m3, respectivamente. La EIS a corto plazo, en el supuesto de reducir en 5 µg/m3 las medias, tuvo como resultado un total de 65,4 muertes prematuras que se podrían posponer en ese periodo (21,8 anuales), correspondiendo con una tasa de 2,8 defunciones por cada 100.000 habitantes. A largo plazo, si se hubiesen reducido las concentraciones de PM2,5 en 5 µg/m3, se hubieran podido posponer 124 muertes prematuras anuales. CONCLUSIONES: Las concentraciones medias anuales de estos contaminantes se ajustan a los límites marcados por la normativa europea. Sin embargo, respecto a las recomendaciones de la OMS, los niveles de PM2,5 son superiores en 2,3 µg/m3. Un escenario de calidad del aire conforme a las recomendaciones de la OMS se hubiera traducido en una reducción de 122 defunciones prematuras anuales.

Comparing Cadence vs. Machine Learning Based Physical Activity Intensity Classifications: Variations in the Associations of Physical Activity With Mortality.

Step cadence-based and machine-learning (ML) methods have been used to classify physical activity (PA) intensity in health-related research. This study examined the association of intensity-specific PA duration with all-cause (ACM) and CVD mortality using the cadence-based and ML methods in 68 561 UK Biobank participants wearing wrist-worn accelerometers. The two-stage-ML method categorized activity type and then intensity. The one-level-cadence-method (1LC) derived intensity-specific duration using all detected steps (including standing utilitarian steps) and cadence thresholds of ≥100 steps/min (moderate intensity) and ≥130 steps/min (vigorous intensity). The two-level-cadence-method (2LC) detected ambulatory steps (i.e., walking and running) and then applied the same cadence thresholds. The 2LC exhibited the most pronounced association at the lower end of duration spectrum. For example, the 2LC showed the smallest minimum moderate-to-vigorous-PA (MVPA) duration (amount associated with 50% of optimal risk reduction) with similar corresponding ACM hazard ratio (HR) to other methods (2LC: 2.8 min/day [95% CI: 2.6, 2.8], HR: 0.83 [95% CI: 0.78, 0.88]; 1LC, 11.1[10.8, 11.4], 0.80 [0.76, 0.85]; ML, 14.9 [14.6, 15.2], 0.82 [0.76, 0.87]). The ML elicited the greatest mortality risk reduction. For example, the medians and corresponding HR in VPA-ACM association: 2LC, 2.0 min/day [95% CI: 2.0, 2.0], HR, 0.69 [95% CI: 0.61, 0.79]; 1LC, 6.9 [6.9, 7.0], 0.68 [0.60, 0.77]; ML, 3.2 [3.2, 3.2], 0.53 [0.44, 0.64]. After standardizing durations, the ML exhibited the most pronounced associations. For example, the standardized minimum durations in MPA-CVD mortality association were: 2LC, -0.77; 1LC, -0.85; ML, -0.94; with corresponding HR of 0.82 [0.72, 0.92], 0.79 [0.69, 0.90], and 0.77 [0.69, 0.85], respectively. The 2LC exhibited the most pronounced association with all-cause and CVD mortality at the lower end of the duration spectrum. The ML method provided the most pronounced association with all-cause and CVD mortality, thus might be appropriate for estimating health benefits of moderate and vigorous intensity PA in observational studies.

The effects of ambient temperature on non-accidental mortality in the elderly hypertensive subjects, a cohort-based study.

BACKGROUND: The association between ambient temperature and mortality has yielded inconclusive results with previous studies relying on in-patient data to assess the health effects of temperature. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the effect of ambient temperature on non-accidental mortality among elderly hypertensive patients through a prospective cohort study conducted in northeastern China. METHODS: A total of 9634 elderly hypertensive patients from the Kailuan research who participated in the baseline survey and follow-up from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2017, were included in the study. We employed a Poisson generalized linear regression model to estimate the effects of monthly ambient temperature and temperature variations on non-accidental mortality. RESULTS: After adjusting for meteorological parameters, the monthly mean temperature (RR = 0.989, 95% CI: 0.984-0.993, p < 0.001), minimum temperature (RR = 0.987, 95% CI: 0.983-0.992, p < 0.001) and maximum temperature (RR = 0.989, 95% CI: 0.985-0.994, p < 0.001) exhibited a negative association with an increased risk of non-accidental mortality. The presence of higher monthly temperature variation was significantly associated with an elevated risk of mortality (RR = 1.097, 95% CI:1.051-1.146, p < 0.001). Further stratified analysis revealed that these associations were more pronounced during colder months as well as among male and older individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Decreased temperature and greater variations in ambient temperature were observed to be linked with non-accidental mortality among elderly hypertensive patients, particularly notable within aging populations and males. These understanding regarding the effects of ambient temperature on mortality holds clinical significance for appropriate treatment strategies targeting these individuals while also serving as an indicator for heightened risk of death.

Multinational trends in sepsis mortality between 1985 and 2019: a temporal analysis of the WHO Mortality Database.

OBJECTIVES: Understanding the burden of disease of sepsis is essential for monitoring the effectiveness of international strategies to improve sepsis care. Our objective was to describe the multinational trend of sepsis-related mortality for the period 1985-2019 from the WHO Mortality Database. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of the WHO Mortality Database. SETTING: We included data from all countries defined by the WHO as having 'high usability data' and at least 10 years of total available data. PARTICIPANTS: From the WHO list of 50 countries with high usability data, 14 (28%) were excluded due to excessive missingness. We included and analysed data separately for male and female. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: We analysed age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) (weighted average of the age-specific mortality rates per 100 000 people, where the weights are the proportions of people in the corresponding age groups of the WHO standard population). RESULTS: We included 1104 country-years worth of data from 36 countries with high usability data, accounting for around 15% of the world's population. The median ASMR for men decreased from 37.8 deaths/100 000 (IQR 28.4-46.7) in 1985-1987 to 25.8 deaths/100 000 (IQR 19.2-37) in 2017-2019, an approximately 12% absolute (31.8% relative) decrease. For women, the overall ASMR decreased from 22.9 deaths/100 000 (IQR 17.7-32.2) to 16.2 deaths/100 000 (IQR 12.6-21.6), an approximately 6.7% absolute decrease (29.3% relative decrease). The analysis of country-level data revealed wide variations in estimates and trends. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a decrease in reported sepsis-related mortality across the majority of analysed nations between 1985 and 2019. However, significant variability remains between gender and health systems. System-level and population-level factors may contribute to these differences, and additional investigations are necessary to further explain these trends.

Impact of antiresorptive agents on mortality risk in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis: insights from a nationwide cohort study.

IMPORTANCE: Osteoporosis-related fractures are associated with increased mortality risk among postmenopausal women, yet the impact of antiosteoporotic medications on mortality is not fully understood. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates the effect of antiresorptive agents (ARs) on mortality risk in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. DESIGN: This is a nationwide cohort study using data from the National Screening Program for Transitional Ages (2008-2017). SETTING: Data were derived from a national cohort of postmenopausal women in South Korea. PARTICIPANTS: This study included 117 871 postmenopausal women diagnosed with osteoporosis. Of them, 15 895 patients who used ARs, such as bisphosphonates or selective estrogen receptor modulators, for at least 1 year were matched 1:1 with nonusers using propensity scores. EXPOSURES: Exposure to ARs for at least 1 year was compared with no AR use. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURE: Mortality outcomes were assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models, focusing on all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality, particularly cardiovascular disease (CVD) and injury-/fracture-related deaths. RESULTS: In AR users, there were 102 deaths (mortality rate 1.41 per 1000 person-years), compared with 221 deaths in non-users (mortality rate 3.14 per 1000 person-years), yielding a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.43 (95% CI, 0.34-0.54). Antiresorptive agent users showed a 52% reduction in CVD mortality risk (HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.34-0.69) and a 54% reduction in injury-/fracture-related mortality risk (HR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.27-0.76). The analysis indicated a consistent decrease in all-cause and CVD mortality risks with longer durations of AR use. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The use of ARs in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis is associated with significantly lower risks of all-cause mortality, especially from cardiovascular events and fractures. The mortality reduction benefits appear to be enhanced with prolonged AR therapy, highlighting the potential importance of sustained treatment in this population.

Exploring the trend of age-standardized mortality rates from cardiovascular disease in Malaysia: a joinpoint analysis (2010-2021).

INTRODUCTION: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major health concern worldwide, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. The COVID-19 pandemic that emerged in late 2019 may have had an impact on the trend of CVD mortality. This study aimed to investigate the trend and changes in CVD mortality rates in Malaysia, using age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) from 2010 to 2021. METHODS: The Malaysian population and mortality data from 2010 to 2021 were obtained from the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM). ASMRs from CVD per 100,000 population were calculated based on the World Health Organization (2000-2025) standard population using the direct method. The ASMRs were computed based on sex, age groups (including premature mortality age, 30-69 years), and CVD types. The annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) of the ASMR with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated from joinpoint regression model using the Joinpoint Regression Program, Version 4.9.1.0. RESULTS: Throughout the study period (2010-2021), ASMRs for CVD exhibited an increase from 93.1 to 147.0 per 100,000, with an AAPC of 3.6% (95% CI: 2.1 to 5.2). The substantial increase was observed between 2015 and 2018 (APC 12.6%, 95% CI: 5.4%, 20.3%), with significant changes in both sexes, and age groups 50-69, 70 years and over, and 30-69 (premature mortality age). Notably, the ASMR trend remained consistently high in the premature mortality age group across other age groups, with males experiencing higher rates than females. No significant changes were detected before or after the COVID-19 pandemic (between 2019 and 2021), except for females who died from IHD (10.3% increase) and those aged 0-4 (25.2% decrease). CONCLUSION: Overall, our analysis highlights the persistently high burden of CVD mortality in Malaysia, particularly among the premature mortality age group. These findings underscore the importance of continued efforts to address CVD risk factors and implement effective prevention and management strategies. Further research is needed to fully understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on CVD mortality rates and to inform targeted interventions to reduce the burden of CVD in Malaysia.

The heat-mortality association in Jordan: Effect modification by greenness, population density and urbanization level.

BACKGROUND: The Middle East is one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change, yet evidence of the heat-related mortality remains limited in this area. Our present study investigated the heat-mortality association in Jordan and the potential modifying effect of greenness, population density and urbanization level on the association. METHODS: For each of the 42 included districts, daily meteorological and mortality data from 2000 to 2020 were obtained for the warmest months (May to September). First, a distributed lag non-linear model was applied to estimate the district level heat-mortality association, then the district specific estimates were pooled using multivariate meta-regression models to obtain an overall estimate. Last, the modifying effect of district level greenness, population density and urbanization level was examined through subgroup analysis. RESULTS: When compared to the minimum mortality temperature (MMT, percentile 0th, 22.20 °C), the 99th temperature percentile exhibited a relative risk (RR) of 1.34 (95 % CI 1.23, 1.45). Districts with low greenness had a higher heat-mortality risk (RR 1.39, 95 % CI 1.22, 1.58) when compared to the high greenness (RR 1.28, 95 % CI 1.13, 1.45). While heat-mortality risk did not significantly differ between population density subgroups, highly urbanized districts had a greater heat-mortality risk (RR 1.41, 95 % CI 1.23, 1.62) as compared to ones with low levels of urbanization (RR 1.32, 95 % CI 1.13, 1.55). Districts with high urbanization level had the highest heat-mortality risk if they were further categorized as having low greenness (RR 1.63, 95 % CI 1.30, 2.04). CONCLUSION: Exposure to heat was associated with increased mortality risk in Jordan. This risk was higher in districts with low greenness and high urbanization level. As climate change-related heat mortality will be on the rise, early warning systems in highly vulnerable communities in Jordan are required and greening initiatives should be pursued.

Mortality and Function After Widowhood Among Older Adults With Dementia, Cancer, or Organ Failure.

Importance: The widowhood effect, in which mortality increases and function decreases in the period following spousal death, may be heightened in older adults with functional impairment and serious illnesses, such as cancer, dementia, or organ failure, who are highly reliant on others, particularly spouses, for support. Yet there are limited data on widowhood among people with these conditions. Objective: To determine the association of widowhood with function and mortality among older adults with dementia, cancer, or organ failure. Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal cohort study used population-based, nationally representative data from the Health and Retirement Study database linked to Medicare claims from 2008 to 2018. Participants were married or partnered community-dwelling adults aged 65 years and older with and without cancer, organ failure, or dementia and functional impairment (function score <9 of 11 points), matched on widowhood event and with follow-up until death or disenrollment. Analyses were conducted from September 2021 to May 2024. Exposure: Widowhood. Main Outcomes and Measures: Function score (range 0-11 points; 1 point for independence with each activity of daily living [ADL] or instrumental activity of daily living [IADL]; higher score indicates better function) and 1-year mortality. Results: Among 13 824 participants (mean [SD] age, 70.1 [5.5] years; 6416 [46.4%] female; mean [SD] baseline function score, 10.2 [1.6] points; 1-year mortality: 0.4%) included, 5732 experienced widowhood. There were 319 matched pairs of people with dementia, 1738 matched pairs without dementia, 95 matched pairs with cancer, 2637 matched pairs without cancer, 85 matched pairs with organ failure, and 2705 matched pairs without organ failure. Compared with participants without these illnesses, widowhood was associated with a decline in function immediately following widowhood for people with cancer (change, -1.17 [95% CI, -2.10 to -0.23] points) or dementia (change, -1.00 [95% CI, -1.52 to -0.48] points) but not organ failure (change, -0.84 [95% CI, -1.69 to 0.00] points). Widowhood was also associated with increased 1-year mortality among people with cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08 [95% CI, 1.04 to 1.13]) or dementia (HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.02 to 1.27]) but not organ failure (HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.98 to 1.06]). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that widowhood was associated with increased functional decline and increased mortality in older adults with functional impairment and dementia or cancer. These findings suggest that persons with these conditions with high caregiver burden may experience a greater widowhood effect.

Estimating future climate change impacts on human mortality and crop yields via air pollution.

Future climate change may bring local benefits or penalties to surface air pollution, resulting from changing temperature, precipitation, and transport patterns, as well as changes in climate-sensitive natural precursor emissions. Here, we estimate the climate penalties and benefits at the end of this century with regard to surface ozone and fine particulate matter (PM[Formula: see text]; excluding dust and smoke) using a one-way offline coupling between a general circulation model and a global 3-D chemical-transport model. We archive meteorology for the present day (2005 to 2014) and end of this century (2090 to 2099) for seven future scenarios developed for Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The model isolates the impact of forecasted anthropogenic precursor emission changes versus that of climate-only driven changes on surface ozone and PM[Formula: see text] for scenarios ranging from extreme mitigation to extreme warming. We then relate these changes to impacts on human mortality and crop production. We find ozone penalties over nearly all land areas with increasing warming. We find net benefits due to climate-driven changes in PM[Formula: see text] in the Northern Extratropics, but net penalties in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere, where most population growth is forecast for the coming century.

Exploring flavonoid intake and all-cause mortality in diverse health conditions: Insights from NHANES 2007-2010 and 2017-2018.

OBJECTIVES: Flavonoids exhibit antioxidative, anti-inflammatory, and anticancer properties, yet the relationship between flavonoid intake and all-cause mortality in the obese population remains unclear. METHODS: This study included NHANES participants from 2007 to 2010 and 2017 to 2018. Cox regression analysis evaluated the impact of total flavonoid intake on all-cause mortality among participants with varying comorbidity profiles. Subgroup analysis was conducted by separately analyzing the six sub-classes of total flavonoids (anthocyanidins, flavan-3-ols, flavanones, flavones, flavonols, and isoflavones). Sensitivity analysis was used to investigate the impact of total flavonoid intake on all-cause mortality among patients with different comorbidities. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 9.92 years (interquartile range (IQR), 5.54-14.29 years), a total of 639 participants died. COX regression analysis revealed a positive impact of flavonoid intake on all-cause mortality among participants with chronic kidney disease, with greater benefits observed in obese participants [hazard ratio (HR): 0.22, 95% CI: 0.11-0.44). In metabolically healthy obese participants (HR: 0.15, 95% CI: 0.07-0.35), obese individuals with diabetes (HR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.29-0.88), and obese individuals with comorbid cardiovascular disease (HR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.17-0.83), flavonoid intake was associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis indicated a non-linear relationship in obese participants, with optimal intake levels ranging from 319.4978 to 448.6907 mg/day, varying based on different comorbidity profiles. Subgroup analysis revealed varying effects of total flavonoid components in different health conditions, with hazard ratios ranging from 0.06 for higher levels of flavonol to 0.59 for higher levels of anthocyanidins in the Cox model. Sensitivity analyses further indicated that individuals with obesity and comorbid diabetes or CKD see the greatest benefit from flavonoid intake. CONCLUSIONS: The consumption of flavonoids may be associated with a decreased risk of all-cause mortality. Consumption of flavonoids is particularly beneficial for individuals with obesity and comorbidities.