Assessing the prevalence and impact of preserved ratio impaired spirometry in low-income and middle-income countries: a post-hoc cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND: More than 90% of the morbidity and mortality from chronic respiratory disease occurs in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), with substantial economic impact. Preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) is a prevalent lung function abnormality associated with increased mortality in high-income countries. We aimed to conduct a post-hoc analysis of a cross-sectional study to assess the prevalence of, the risk factors for, and the impact of PRISm in three diverse LMIC settings. METHODS: We recruited a random, age-stratified and sex-stratified sample of the population in semi-urban Bhaktapur, Nepal; urban Lima, Peru; and rural Nakaseke, Uganda. Quality-assured post-bronchodilator spirometry was performed to American Thoracic Society standards and PRISm was defined as a forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) of less than 80% predicted with a FEV1/forced vital capacity ratio of 0·70 or more. We used t tests and χ2 analyses to assess the relationships between demographic, biometric, and comorbidity variables with PRISm. Multivariable logistic models with random intercept by site were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs. FINDINGS: 10 664 participants were included in the analysis, with a mean (SD) age of 56·3 (11·7) years and an equal distribution by sex. The prevalence of PRISm was 2·5% in Peru, 9·1% in Nepal, and 16·0% in Uganda. In multivariable analysis, younger age (OR for each decile of age 0·87, 95% CI 0·82-0·92) and being female (1·37, 1·18-1·58) were associated with increased odds of having PRISm. Biomass exposure was not consistently associated with PRISm across sites. Individuals with PRISm had impairment in respiratory-related quality of life as measured by the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (OR by decile 1·18, 95% CI 1·10-1·25). INTERPRETATION: The prevalence of PRISm is heterogeneous across LMIC settings and associated with age, female sex, and biomass exposure, a common exposure in LMICs. A diagnosis of PRISm was associated with worse health status when compared with those with normal lung function. Health systems in LMICs should focus on all spirometric abnormalities as opposed to obstruction alone, given the disease burden, reduced quality of life, and size of the undiagnosed population at risk. FUNDING: Medical Research Council.

Quality of routine health data at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ethiopia, Haiti, Laos, Nepal, and South Africa.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments and researchers have used routine health data to estimate potential declines in the delivery and uptake of essential health services. This research relies on the data being high quality and, crucially, on the data quality not changing because of the pandemic. In this paper, we investigated those assumptions and assessed data quality before and during COVID-19. METHODS: We obtained routine health data from the DHIS2 platforms in Ethiopia, Haiti, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Nepal, and South Africa (KwaZulu-Natal province) for a range of 40 indicators on essential health services and institutional deaths. We extracted data over 24 months (January 2019-December 2020) including pre-pandemic data and the first 9 months of the pandemic. We assessed four dimensions of data quality: reporting completeness, presence of outliers, internal consistency, and external consistency. RESULTS: We found high reporting completeness across countries and services and few declines in reporting at the onset of the pandemic. Positive outliers represented fewer than 1% of facility-month observations across services. Assessment of internal consistency across vaccine indicators found similar reporting of vaccines in all countries. Comparing cesarean section rates in the HMIS to those from population-representative surveys, we found high external consistency in all countries analyzed. CONCLUSIONS: While efforts remain to improve the quality of these data, our results show that several indicators in the HMIS can be reliably used to monitor service provision over time in these five countries.

Cholera in Haiti.

The cholera epidemic that hit Haiti from October 2010 to February 2019 was the world's deadliest of the last 25 years. Officially, the successive waves caused 9789 deaths, although numerous additional casualties could not be recorded. The origin of this epidemic has been the subject of a controversy involving two opposing theories. The first hypothesis, put forward by renowned American academics, was that the cholera epidemic originated from the environment, due to the proliferation and transmission of aquatic Vibrio cholerae bacteria driven by a confluence of circumstances, i.e., the earthquake followed by a hot summer and, ultimately, heavy rainfall and flooding. The alternative hypothesis, which was subsequently confirmed by epidemiological and genomic studies, attributed the epidemic to the recent importation of cholera by UN peacekeepers recently arrived from Nepal, and to a river polluted with sewage. In late 2016, the Secretary General of the United Nations finally begged the Haitian people for forgiveness. This implicit recognition of the role of the UN in the cholera epidemic helped to fund the ongoing fight against it. Case-area targeted interventions aimed at interrupting cholera transmission were reinforced, which resulted in the extinction of the epidemic within two years. In the meantime, several phylogenetic studies on Vibrio cholerae during the seventh cholera pandemic demonstrated that local environmental and global epidemic Vibrio populations were distinct. These studies also showed that epidemics arose when the bacterium had diversified and that it had spread during transmission events associated with human travel.

Discriminative Accuracy of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Screening Instruments in 3 Low- and Middle-Income Country Settings.

Importance: Most of the global morbidity and mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) occurs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with significant economic effects. Objective: To assess the discriminative accuracy of 3 instruments using questionnaires and peak expiratory flow (PEF) to screen for COPD in 3 LMIC settings. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cross-sectional analysis of discriminative accuracy, conducted between January 2018 and March 2020 in semiurban Bhaktapur, Nepal; urban Lima, Peru; and rural Nakaseke, Uganda, using a random age- and sex-stratified sample of the population 40 years or older. Exposures: Three screening tools, the COPD Assessment in Primary Care to Identify Undiagnosed Respiratory Disease and Exacerbation Risk (CAPTURE; range, 0-6; high risk indicated by a score of 5 or more or score 2-5 with low PEF [<250 L/min for females and <350 L/min for males]), the COPD in LMICs Assessment questionnaire (COLA-6; range, 0-5; high risk indicated by a score of 4 or more), and the Lung Function Questionnaire (LFQ; range, 0-25; high risk indicated by a score of 18 or less) were assessed against a reference standard diagnosis of COPD using quality-assured postbronchodilator spirometry. CAPTURE and COLA-6 include a measure of PEF. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was discriminative accuracy of the tools in identifying COPD as measured by area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) with 95% CIs. Secondary outcomes included sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. Results: Among 10 709 adults who consented to participate in the study (mean age, 56.3 years (SD, 11.7); 50% female), 35% had ever smoked, and 30% were currently exposed to biomass smoke. The unweighted prevalence of COPD at the 3 sites was 18.2% (642/3534 participants) in Nepal, 2.7% (97/3550) in Peru, and 7.4% (264/3580) in Uganda. Among 1000 COPD cases, 49.3% had clinically important disease (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease classification B-D), 16.4% had severe or very severe airflow obstruction (forced expiratory volume in 1 second <50% predicted), and 95.3% of cases were previously undiagnosed. The AUC for the screening instruments ranged from 0.717 (95% CI, 0.677-0.774) for LFQ in Peru to 0.791 (95% CI, 0.770-0.809) for COLA-6 in Nepal. The sensitivity ranged from 34.8% (95% CI, 25.3%-45.2%) for COLA-6 in Nepal to 64.2% (95% CI, 60.3%-67.9%) for CAPTURE in Nepal. The mean time to administer the instruments was 7.6 minutes (SD 1.11), and data completeness was 99.5%. Conclusions and Relevance: This study demonstrated that screening instruments for COPD were feasible to administer in 3 low- and middle-income settings. Further research is needed to assess instrument performance in other low- and middle-income settings and to determine whether implementation is associated with improved clinical outcomes.

Disability among Older People: Analysis of Data from Disability Surveys in Six Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

This analysis of surveys from six low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) aimed to (i) estimate the prevalence of disability among older adults and (ii) compare experiences and participation in key life areas among older people with and without disabilities which may show vulnerability during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data were analysed from district-level or national surveys in Cameroon, Guatemala, Haiti, India, Nepal and the Maldives, which across the six databases totalled 3499 participants aged 60 years and above including 691 people with disabilities. Disability was common among adults 60+, ranging from 9.7% (8.0-11.8) in Nepal to 39.2% in India (95% CI 34.1-44.5%). Mobility was the most commonly reported functional difficulty. In each setting, older people with disabilities were significantly less likely to be working and reported greater participation restrictions and environmental barriers in key life areas compared to people in the same age categories without disabilities (p < 0.05). Disability is common in this population, and older people with disabilities may have greater difficulties participating in COVID-19 responses and have high economic vulnerabilities. It is imperative to prioritise the needs of older people with disabilities in the COVID-19 pandemic, including ensuring accessibility of both health services and the community in general.

Factors Influencing Leprosy Incidence: A Comprehensive Analysis of Observations in Wenshan of China, Nepal, and Other Global Epidemic Areas.

Leprosy remains endemic in some regions and is a global health concern. However, the possible causes and risk factors of the disease remain unclear. Data in Wenshan, China were collected from the Wenshan Institute of Dermatology (1986-2015); data in Nepal were obtained from the Leprosy Control Division, Department of Health Services, Nepal (2011 to 2015); and data from Indonesia, India, and Brazil were collected from WHO records. We assessed the epidemiological trends of leprosy in Wenshan and compared the features of possible causes and risk factors with those of other countries. We then performed a descriptive and statistical analysis to make our study more purposeful and definitive. A total of 3,376 cases were detected in Wenshan from 1986 to 2015. The overall prevalence rate (PR) of leprosy presented a decreasing trend with a peak (4.9/10,000 population) in 1986. The detection of new leprosy cases was higher in males than in females. Visible deformity increased every year since 2005 with a disability of 34.8% in 2015 among new cases. In Nepal, 2,461 leprosy patients received multi-drug therapy (MDT) in 2015 which corresponded to the PR of 0.89/10,000 population. Geographic latitude and socio-economic situations appeared to be the main causes of leprosy, and the healthcare condition was an important factor associated with leprosy incidence. The introduction of MDT effectively reduced leprosy prevalence worldwide. Wenshan (China), Nepal, and other countries share similarities in various aspects with respect to socio-cultural features, geographical distribution, environmental factors, and economic situation, which may contribute to leprosy being endemic in these areas.

The long-term impact of the Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program on leprosy incidence: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program explored the feasibility and impact of contact tracing and the provision of single dose rifampicin (SDR) to eligible contacts of newly diagnosed leprosy patients in Brazil, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Tanzania. As the impact of the programme is difficult to establish in the short term, we apply mathematical modelling to predict its long-term impact on the leprosy incidence. METHODOLOGY: The individual-based model SIMCOLEP was calibrated and validated to the historic leprosy incidence data in the study areas. For each area, we assessed two scenarios: 1) continuation of existing routine activities as in 2014; and 2) routine activities combined with LPEP starting in 2015. The number of contacts per index patient screened varied from 1 to 36 between areas. Projections were made until 2040. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In all areas, the LPEP program increased the number of detected cases in the first year(s) of the programme as compared to the routine programme, followed by a faster reduction afterwards with increasing benefit over time. LPEP could accelerate the reduction of the leprosy incidence by up to six years as compared to the routine programme. The impact of LPEP varied by area due to differences in the number of contacts per index patient included and differences in leprosy epidemiology and routine control programme. CONCLUSIONS: The LPEP program contributes significantly to the reduction of the leprosy incidence and could potentially accelerate the interruption of transmission. It would be advisable to include contact tracing/screening and SDR in routine leprosy programmes.

Recognition and management of community-acquired acute kidney injury in low-resource settings in the ISN 0by25 trial: A multi-country feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is increasingly encountered in community settings and contributes to morbidity, mortality, and increased resource utilization worldwide. In low-resource settings, lack of awareness of and limited access to diagnostic and therapeutic interventions likely influence patient management. We evaluated the feasibility of the use of point-of-care (POC) serum creatinine and urine dipstick testing with an education and training program to optimize the identification and management of AKI in the community in 3 low-resource countries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Patients presenting to healthcare centers (HCCs) from 1 October 2016 to 29 September 2017 in the cities Cochabamba, Bolivia; Dharan, Nepal; and Blantyre, Malawi, were assessed utilizing a symptom-based risk score to identify patients at moderate to high AKI risk. POC testing for serum creatinine and urine dipstick at enrollment were utilized to classify these patients as having chronic kidney disease (CKD), acute kidney disease (AKD), or no kidney disease (NKD). Patients were followed for a maximum of 6 months with repeat POC testing. AKI development was assessed at 7 days, kidney recovery at 1 month, and progression to CKD and mortality at 3 and 6 months. Following an observation phase to establish baseline data, care providers and physicians in the HCCs were trained with a standardized protocol utilizing POC tests to evaluate and manage patients, guided by physicians in referral hospitals connected via mobile digital technology. We evaluated 3,577 patients, and 2,101 were enrolled: 978 in the observation phase and 1,123 in the intervention phase. Due to the high number of patients attending the centers daily, it was not feasible to screen all patients to assess the actual incidence of AKI. Of enrolled patients, 1,825/2,101 (87%) were adults, 1,117/2,101 (53%) were females, 399/2,101 (19%) were from Bolivia, 813/2,101 (39%) were from Malawi, and 889/2,101 (42%) were from Nepal. The age of enrolled patients ranged from 1 month to 96 years, with a mean of 43 years (SD 21) and a median of 43 years (IQR 27-62). Hypertension was the most common comorbidity (418/2,101; 20%). At enrollment, 197/2,101 (9.4%) had CKD, and 1,199/2,101 (57%) had AKD. AKI developed in 30% within 7 days. By 1 month, 268/978 (27%) patients in the observation phase and 203/1,123 (18%) in the intervention phase were lost to follow-up. In the intervention phase, more patients received fluids (observation 714/978 [73%] versus intervention 874/1,123 [78%]; 95% CI 0.63, 0.94; p = 0.012), hospitalization was reduced (observation 578/978 [59%] versus intervention 548/1,123 [49%]; 95% CI 0.55, 0.79; p < 0.001), and admitted patients with severe AKI did not show a significantly lower mortality during follow-up (observation 27/135 [20%] versus intervention 21/178 [11.8%]; 95% CI 0.98, 3.52; p = 0.057). Of 504 patients with kidney function assessed during the 6-month follow-up, de novo CKD arose in 79/484 (16.3%), with no difference between the observation and intervention phase (95% CI 0.91, 2.47; p = 0.101). Overall mortality was 273/2,101 (13%) and was highest in those who had CKD (24/106; 23%), followed by those with AKD (128/760; 17%), AKI (85/628; 14%), and NKD (36/607; 6%). The main limitation of our study was the inability to determine the actual incidence of kidney dysfunction in the health centers as it was not feasible to screen all the patients due to the high numbers seen daily. CONCLUSIONS: This multicenter, non-randomized feasibility study in low-resource settings demonstrates that it is feasible to implement a comprehensive program utilizing POC testing and protocol-based management to improve the recognition and management of AKI and AKD in high-risk patients in primary care.

The long-term impact of the leprosy post-exposure prophylaxis (LPEP) program on leprosy incidence: a modelling study

The Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program explored the feasibility and impact of contact tracing and the provision of SDR to eligible contacts of newly diagnosed leprosy patients in states or districts of Brazil, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Tanzania. This study investigated the long-term impact of the LPEP program on the leprosy new case detection rate (NCDR). Our results show that LPEP could reduce the NCDR beyond the impact of the routine leprosy control programme and that many new cases could be prevented. The benefit of LPEP increases gradually over time. LPEP could accelerate the time of reaching predicted NCDR levels of 2040 under routine program by up to six years. Furthermore, we highlighted how the impact varies between countries due to differences in the number of contacts per index patient screened and differences in leprosy epidemiology and national control programme. Generally, including both household contacts and neighbours (> 20 contacts per index patient) would yield the highest impact.

Exposure to Armed Conflict in Childhood vs Older Ages and Subsequent Onset of Major Depressive Disorder.

Importance: This study offers a rare opportunity to evaluate life-course differences in the likelihood of developing major depressive disorder (MDD) after exposure to georeferenced neighborhood-level violence during an armed conflict. Objective: To examine age cohort (age <11 vs ≥11 years) differences in associations of neighborhood-level violence with subsequent depression onset, independently of individual exposure and other key characteristics. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Chitwan Valley Family Study is a population-representative panel study (1995 to present) conducted in Western Chitwan in Nepal, a low-income country that experienced a medium-intensity armed conflict from 2000 to 2006. Data for violent events were collected during the armed conflict and were linked to lifetime histories of MDD (collected in 2016-2018). The present cohort study analyzes 10 623 participants within 151 neighborhoods, systematically selected and representative of Western Chitwan. All residents aged 15 to 59 years at MDD assessment were eligible (response rate, 93%). Data analysis was performed from May 2019 to July 2020. Exposures: Georeferenced number of armed conflict-related physical beatings within 1 km of residential neighborhood. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was onset of MDD, as defined by Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fourth Edition), during or after the conflict, stratified by children (aged <11 years) and older individuals (aged ≥11 years), assessed by the Nepal-specific World Mental Health-Composite International Diagnostic Instrument 3.0 with a life history calendar. Results: In total, 10 623 participants (5745 female [54.08%]; 4074 [38.35%] aged <11 years at the conflict start) contributed 171 899 person-years of exposure to the risk of MDD. Two or more beatings occurred within 1 km of 15 neighborhoods (9.9%). Discrete-time survival models showed that children (but not older individuals) living in neighborhoods with 2 or more beatings had a higher likelihood of developing MDD than those who lived in a community with no beatings (odds ratio, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.17-2.84; P = .008); there was also a significant interaction between age group and neighborhood beatings (odds ratio, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.27-2.70; P = .001). A confirmatory, multivariable, multilevel matching analysis showed a neighborhood association for children (z = -2.66; P = .008), but not older individuals (z = -0.454; P = .65). The mean (SE) incidence of MDD among children living in neighborhoods with 2 or more beatings nearby was 12.69% (2.37%) vs 5.08% (1.56%) in the matched unexposed sample. Conclusions and Relevance: The youngest individuals may be the most at risk during times of violence, with mental health consequences lasting long after conflicts have subsided and should be a priority for population-level interventions. Future research should consider other disorders, other types of violence, and elderly individuals.

Epidemiology of Shigella infections and diarrhea in the first two years of life using culture-independent diagnostics in 8 low-resource settings.

Culture-independent diagnostics have revealed a larger burden of Shigella among children in low-resource settings than previously recognized. We further characterized the epidemiology of Shigella in the first two years of life in a multisite birth cohort. We tested 41,405 diarrheal and monthly non-diarrheal stools from 1,715 children for Shigella by quantitative PCR. To assess risk factors, clinical factors related to age and culture positivity, and associations with inflammatory biomarkers, we used log-binomial regression with generalized estimating equations. The prevalence of Shigella varied from 4.9%-17.8% in non-diarrheal stools across sites, and the incidence of Shigella-attributable diarrhea was 31.8 cases (95% CI: 29.6, 34.2) per 100 child-years. The sensitivity of culture compared to qPCR was 6.6% and increased to 27.8% in Shigella-attributable dysentery. Shigella diarrhea episodes were more likely to be severe and less likely to be culture positive in younger children. Older age (RR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.70, 1.81 per 6-month increase in age), unimproved sanitation (RR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.29), low maternal education (<10 years, RR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.26), initiating complementary foods before 3 months (RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.20), and malnutrition (RR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.88, 0.95 per unit increase in weight-for-age z-score) were risk factors for Shigella. There was a linear dose-response between Shigella quantity and myeloperoxidase concentrations. The burden of Shigella varied widely across sites, but uniformly increased through the second year of life and was associated with intestinal inflammation. Culture missed most clinically relevant cases of severe diarrhea and dysentery.

Geographic components of SARS-CoV-2 expansion: a hypothesis.

The emergence of COVID-19 infection (caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus) in Wuhan, China in the latter part of 2019 has, within a relatively short time, led to a global pandemic. Amidst the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2 across Asia, an epidemiologic trend emerged in relation to high altitude (HA) populations. Compared with the rest of Asia, SARS-CoV-2 exhibited attenuated rates of expansion with limited COVID-19 infection severity along the Tibetan plateau. These characteristics were soon evident in additional HA regions across Bolivia, central Ecuador, Nepal, Bhutan, and the Sichuan province of mainland China. This mini-review presents a discussion surrounding attributes of the HA environment, aspects of HA physiology, as well as, genetic variations among HA populations which may provide clues for this pattern of SARS-CoV-2 expansion and COVID-19 infection severity. Explanations are provided in the hypothetical, albeit relevant historical evidence is provided to create a foundation for future research.

Maternal Mortality in the United States Compared With Ethiopia, Nepal, Brazil, and the United Kingdom: Contrasts in Reproductive Health Policies.

Maternal mortality is falling in most of the world's countries, but, for 20 years, the United States has seen no reduction. Over this period, a dozen countries in various stages of development, all spending much less than the United States on health, achieved their United Nations' Millennium Development Goal of 2015 (Millennium Development Goal 5: improve maternal health), with substantial reductions in maternal mortality rates. To consider whether interventions successful in reducing global maternal mortality rates could help the United States to lower its rate, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, at the 2018 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics' Rio de Janeiro World Congress, convened a panel of the presidents and representatives from five national societies with wide maternal mortality rate ranges and health expenditures and whose national societies had focused on reducing maternal mortality for Millennium Development Goal 5. They identified expanded access to reproductive health care, particularly contraception and safe abortion, as key interventions that had proven effective in decreasing maternal mortality rates worldwide.

Evaluation of sex differences in dietary behaviours and their relationship with cardiovascular risk factors: a cross-sectional study of nationally representative surveys in seven low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading causes of death for men and women in low-and-middle income countries (LMIC). The nutrition transition to diets high in salt, fat and sugar and low in fruit and vegetables, in parallel with increasing prevalence of diet-related CVD risk factors in LMICs, identifies the need for urgent action to reverse this trend. To aid identification of the most effective interventions it is crucial to understand whether there are sex differences in dietary behaviours related to CVD risk. METHODS: From a dataset of 46 nationally representative surveys, we included data from seven countries that had recorded the same dietary behaviour measurements in adults; Bhutan, Eswatini, Georgia, Guyana, Kenya, Nepal and St Vincent and the Grenadines (2013-2017). Three dietary behaviours were investigated: positive salt use behaviour (SUB), meeting fruit and vegetable (F&V) recommendations and use of vegetable oil rather than animal fats in cooking. Generalized linear models were used to investigate the association between dietary behaviours and waist circumference (WC) and undiagnosed and diagnosed hypertension and diabetes. Interaction terms between sex and dietary behaviour were added to test for sex differences. RESULTS: Twenty-four thousand three hundred thirty-two participants were included. More females than males reported positive SUB (31.3 vs. 27.2% p-value < 0.001), yet less met F&V recommendations (13.2 vs. 14.8%, p-value< 0.05). The prevalence of reporting all three dietary behaviours in a positive manner was 2.7%, varying by country, but not sex. Poor SUB was associated with a higher prevalence of undiagnosed hypertension for females (13.1% vs. 9.9%, p-value = 0.04), and a higher prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes for males (2.4% vs. 1.5%, p-value = 0.02). Meeting F&V recommendations was associated with a higher prevalence of high WC (24.4% vs 22.6%, p-value = 0.01), but was not associated with undiagnosed or diagnosed hypertension or diabetes. CONCLUSION: Interventions to increase F&V intake and positive SUBs in the included countries are urgently needed. Dietary behaviours were not notably different between sexes. However, our findings were limited by the small proportion of the population reporting positive dietary behaviours, and further research is required to understand whether associations with CVD risk factors and interactions by sex would change as the prevalence of positive behaviours increases.

Disruption, changes, and adaptation: Experiences with chronic conditions in Mozambique, Nepal and Peru.

Chronic conditions are an increasing problem in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) yet, the challenges faced by low-income populations with these conditions in such countries are not well understood. Based on in-depth interviews with people affected by chronic conditions and their family members, this paper describes the experience of patients suffering from diabetes or hypertension in rural communities of Mozambique, Nepal, and Peru. We analysed our data using the concepts of disruption and adaptive strategies, finding that despite being very different countries, the implications in daily lives, interpersonal relationships, and family dynamics are similar, and that oftentimes such impact is defined along gender lines. We show that adjustments to living with a chronic disease are not always easy, particularly when they imply changes and reconfiguration of roles and responsibilities for which neither the individual nor their families are prepared. The study adds to the literature on the disruptive effects of chronic conditions and stresses the importance of contextualising disruptive experiences among disadvantaged populations within weak health systems. Our findings highlight the relevance of understanding the challenges of developing adaptive solutions to chronic care in resource-scarce contexts.

Whole blood RNA signatures in leprosy patients identify reversal reactions before clinical onset: a prospective, multicenter study.

Early diagnosis of leprosy is challenging, particularly its inflammatory reactions, the major cause of irreversible neuropathy in leprosy. Current diagnostics cannot identify which patients are at risk of developing reactions. This study assessed blood RNA expression levels as potential biomarkers for leprosy. Prospective cohorts of newly diagnosed leprosy patients, including reactions, and healthy controls were recruited in Bangladesh, Brazil, Ethiopia and Nepal. RNA expression in 1,090 whole blood samples was determined for 103 target genes for innate and adaptive immune profiling by dual color Reverse-Transcription Multiplex Ligation-dependent Probe Amplification (dcRT-MLPA) followed by cluster analysis. We identified transcriptomic biomarkers associated with leprosy disease, different leprosy phenotypes as well as high exposure to Mycobacterium leprae which respectively allow improved diagnosis and classification of leprosy patients and detection of infection. Importantly, a transcriptomic signature of risk for reversal reactions consisting of five genes (CCL2, CD8A, IL2, IL15 and MARCO) was identified based on cross-sectional comparison of RNA expression. In addition, intra-individual longitudinal analyses of leprosy patients before, during and after treatment of reversal reactions, indicated that several IFN-induced genes increased significantly at onset of reaction whereas IL15 decreased. This multi-site study, situated in four leprosy endemic areas, demonstrates the potential of host transcriptomic biomarkers as correlates of risk for leprosy. Importantly, a prospective five-gene signature for reversal reactions could predict reversal reactions at least 2 weeks before onset. Thus, transcriptomic biomarkers provide promise for early detection of these acute inflammatory episodes and thereby help prevent permanent neuropathy and disability in leprosy patients.

PTSD as a consequence of past conflict experience, recent exposure to violence and economic marginalization in post-conflict contexts: A study from Nepal, Guatemala and Northern Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to war and conflict increases the risk of mental health problems. Poor living conditions are known to negatively impact mental health. HYPOTHESIS: It is hypothesized that exposure to negative events after armed conflict interacts with past negative experiences, socioeconomic factors and current mental health problems. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was carried out in three contexts of previous internal armed conflict: Nepal, Guatemala and Northern Ireland. Three nationally representative samples were drawn, comprising a net sample of 3,229 respondents. RESULTS: Both recent negative events and past negative events linked to the previous conflicts were found to be associated with elevated risk of post-traumatic stress syndrome (PTSD). Economic marginalization and urban residency also contributed to current risk of PTSD. CONCLUSIONS: The results support the study hypothesis that both past and recent negative events in combination with economic marginalization contribute to explain current risk of PTSD. It is necessary both to improve living conditions more broadly and to establish and develop health services that have the capacity to screen, prevent and treat mental health problems also in poor contexts, in particular against a background of previous armed conflict.

A multicentric evaluation of dipstick test for serodiagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis in India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Brazil, Ethiopia and Spain.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is one of the leading infectious diseases affecting developing countries. Colloidal gold-based diagnostic tests are rapid tools to detect blood/serum antibodies for VL diagnosis. Lack of uniformity in the performance of these tests in different endemic regions is a hurdle in early disease diagnosis. This study is designed to validate a serum-based dipstick test in eight centres of six countries, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Brazil, Ethiopia and Spain with archived and fresh sera from 1003 subjects. The dipstick detects antibodies against Leishmania donovani membrane antigens (LAg). The overall sensitivity and specificity of the test with 95% confidence intervals were found to be 97.10% and 93.44%, respectively. The test showed good sensitivity and specificity in the Indian subcontinent (>95%). In Brazil, Ethiopia, and Spain the sensitivity and specificity of the dipstick test (83.78-100% and 79.06-100%) were better as compared to the earlier reports of the performance of rK39 rapid test in these regions. Interestingly, less cross-reactivity was found with the cutaneous form of the disease in Spain, Brazil, and Sri Lanka demonstrating 91.58% specificity. This dipstick test can therefore be a useful tool for diagnosing VL from other symptomatically similar diseases and against cutaneous form of leishmaniasis.

Effective coverage of facility delivery in Bangladesh, Haiti, Malawi, Nepal, Senegal, and Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: The persistence of preventable maternal and newborn deaths highlights the importance of quality of care as an essential element in coverage interventions. Moving beyond the conventional measurement of crude coverage, we estimated effective coverage of facility delivery by adjusting for facility preparedness to provide delivery services in Bangladesh, Haiti, Malawi, Nepal, Senegal, and Tanzania. METHODS: The study uses data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Service Provision Assessments (SPA) in Bangladesh (2014 DHS and 2014 SPA), Haiti (2012 DHS and 2013 SPA), Malawi (2015-16 DHS and 2013-14 SPA), Nepal (2016 DHS and 2015 SPA), Senegal (2016 DHS and 2015 SPA), and Tanzania (2015-16 DHS and 2014-15 SPA). We defined effective coverage as the mathematical product of crude coverage and quality of care. The coverage of facility delivery was measured with DHS data and quality of care was measured with facility data from SPA. We estimated effective coverage at both the regional and the national level and accounted for type of facility where delivery care was sought. FINDINGS: The findings from the six countries indicate the effective coverage ranges from 24% in Haiti to 66% in Malawi, representing substantial reductions (20% to 39%) from crude coverage rates. Although Malawi has achieved almost universal coverage of facility delivery (93%), effective coverage was only 66%.vSuch gaps between the crude coverage and the effective coverage suggest that women delivered in health facility but did not necessarily receive an adequate quality of care. In all countries except Malawi, effective coverage differed substantially among the country's regions of the country, primarily due to regional variability in coverage. INTERPRETATION: Our findings reinforce the importance of quality of obstetric and newborn care to achieve further reduction of maternal and newborn mortality. Continued efforts are needed to increase the use of facility delivery service in countries or regions where coverage remains low.

Use of earth observation-derived hydrometeorological variables to model and predict rotavirus infection (MAL-ED): a multisite cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Climate change threatens to undermine recent progress in reducing global deaths from diarrhoeal disease in children. However, the scarcity of evidence about how individual environmental factors affect transmission of specific pathogens makes prediction of trends under different climate scenarios challenging. We aimed to model associations between daily estimates of a suite of hydrometeorological variables and rotavirus infection status ascertained through community-based surveillance. METHODS: For this analysis of multisite cohort data, rotavirus infection status was ascertained through community-based surveillance of infants in the eight-site MAL-ED cohort study, and matched by date with earth observation estimates of nine hydrometeorological variables from the Global Land Data Assimilation System: daily total precipitation volume (mm), daily total surface runoff (mm), surface pressure (mbar), wind speed (m/s), relative humidity (%), soil moisture (%), solar radiation (W/m2), specific humidity (kg/kg), and average daily temperatures (°C). Lag relationships, independent effects, and interactions were characterised by use of modified Poisson models and compared with and without adjustment for seasonality and between-site variation. Final models were created with stepwise selection of main effects and interactions and their validity assessed by excluding each site in turn and calculating Tjur's Coefficients of Determination. FINDINGS: All nine hydrometeorological variables were significantly associated with rotavirus infection after adjusting for seasonality and between-site variation over multiple consecutive or non-consecutive lags, showing complex, often non-linear associations that differed by symptom status and showed considerable mutual interaction. The final models explained 5·9% to 6·2% of the variability in rotavirus infection in the pooled data and their predictions explained between 0·0% and 14·1% of the variability at individual study sites. INTERPRETATION: These results suggest that the effect of climate on rotavirus transmission was mediated by four independent mechanisms: waterborne dispersal, airborne dispersal, virus survival on soil and surfaces, and host factors. Earth observation data products available at a global scale and at subdaily resolution can be combined with longitudinal surveillance data to test hypotheses about routes and drivers of transmission but showed little potential for making predictions in this setting. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Foundation for the National Institutes of Health, National Institutes of Health, Fogarty International Center; Sherrilyn and Ken Fisher Center for Environmental Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine; and NASA's Group on Earth Observations Work Programme.