ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: Risk stratification in Barrett's esophagus (BE) is challenging. We evaluated the ability of a panel of genetic markers to predict progression to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). METHODS: In this case-control study, we assessed a measure of genetic instability, the mutational load (ML), in predicting progression to HGD or EAC. Cases had nondysplastic BE or low-grade dysplasia (LGD) at baseline and developed HGD/EAC ≥1 year later. Controls were matched 2:1, had nondysplastic BE or LGD, and no progression at follow-up. Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue was microdissected for the epithelium. Loss of heterozygosity (LOH) and microsatellite instability (MSI) were assessed. ML was calculated from derangements in 10 genomic loci. High-clonality LOH mutations were assigned a value of 1, low-clonality mutations were assigned a value of 0.5, and MSI 0.75 at the first loci, and 0.5 for additional loci. These values were summed to the ML. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were created. RESULTS: There were 69 patients (46 controls and 23 cases). Groups were similar in age, follow-up time, baseline histology, and the number of microdissected targets. Mean ML in pre-progression biopsies was higher in cases (2.21) than in controls (0.42; P<0.0001). Sensitivity was 100% at ML ≥0.5 and specificity was 96% at ML ≥1.5. Accuracy was highest at 89.9% for ML ≥1. ROC curves for ML ≥1 demonstrated an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.95. CONCLUSIONS: ML in pre-progression BE tissue predicts progression to HGD or EAC. Although further validation is necessary, ML may have utility as a biomarker in endoscopic surveillance of BE.