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1.
Eur Respir Rev ; 33(172)2024 Apr 30.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38599675

Respiratory symptoms are ubiquitous in children and, even though they may be the harbinger of poor long-term outcomes, are often trivialised. Adverse exposures pre-conception, antenatally and in early childhood have lifetime impacts on respiratory health. For the most part, lung function tracks from the pre-school years at least into late middle age, and airflow obstruction is associated not merely with poor respiratory outcomes but also early all-cause morbidity and mortality. Much would be preventable if social determinants of adverse outcomes were to be addressed. This review presents the perspectives of paediatricians from many different contexts, both high and low income, including Europe, the Americas, Australasia, India, Africa and China. It should be noted that there are islands of poverty within even the highest income settings and, conversely, opulent areas in even the most deprived countries. The heaviest burden of any adverse effects falls on those of the lowest socioeconomic status. Themes include passive exposure to tobacco smoke and indoor and outdoor pollution, across the entire developmental course, and lack of access even to simple affordable medications, let alone the new biologicals. Commonly, disease outcomes are worse in resource-poor areas. Both within and between countries there are avoidable gross disparities in outcomes. Climate change is also bearing down hardest on the poorest children. This review highlights the need for vigorous advocacy for children to improve lifelong health. It also highlights that there are ongoing culturally sensitive interventions to address social determinants of disease which are already benefiting children.


Respiration Disorders , Social Determinants of Health , Child , Child, Preschool , Humans , China , Europe , Morbidity , Poverty , Female , Pregnancy , Infant, Newborn , Infant , Prenatal Exposure Delayed Effects
2.
Breathe (Sheff) ; 19(2): 230058, 2023 Jun.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37645022

It is becoming increasingly apparent that poor housing quality affects indoor air quality, significantly impacting on respiratory health in children and young people. Exposure to damp and/or mould in the home, cold homes and the presence of pests and pollutants all have a significant detrimental impact on child respiratory health. There is a complex relationship between features of poor-quality housing, such as being in a state of disrepair, poor ventilation, overcrowding and being cold, that favour an environment resulting in poor indoor air quality. Children living in rented (private or public) housing are more likely to come from lower-income backgrounds and are most at risk of living in substandard housing posing a serious threat to respiratory health. Children have the right to safe and adequate housing, and research has shown that either rehousing or making modifications to poor-quality housing to improve indoor air quality results in improved respiratory health. Urgent action is needed to address this threat to health. All stakeholders should understand the relationship between poor-quality housing and respiratory health in children and act, working with families, to redress this modifiable risk factor. Educational aims: The reader should understand how housing quality and indoor air quality affect respiratory health in children.The reader should understand which children are at most risk of living in poor-quality housing.The reader should understand what policy recommendations have been made and what actions need to be undertaken to improve housing quality and respiratory health in children and young people.

3.
Pediatr Res ; 93(1): 207-216, 2023 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35449394

BACKGROUND: We hypothesised that the clinical characteristics of hospitalised children and young people (CYP) with SARS-CoV-2 in the UK second wave (W2) would differ from the first wave (W1) due to the alpha variant (B.1.1.7), school reopening and relaxation of shielding. METHODS: Prospective multicentre observational cohort study of patients <19 years hospitalised in the UK with SARS-CoV-2 between 17/01/20 and 31/01/21. Clinical characteristics were compared between W1 and W2 (W1 = 17/01/20-31/07/20,W2 = 01/08/20-31/01/21). RESULTS: 2044 CYP < 19 years from 187 hospitals. 427/2044 (20.6%) with asymptomatic/incidental SARS-CoV-2 were excluded from main analysis. 16.0% (248/1548) of symptomatic CYP were admitted to critical care and 0.8% (12/1504) died. 5.6% (91/1617) of symptomatic CYP had Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C). After excluding CYP with MIS-C, patients in W2 had lower Paediatric Early Warning Scores (PEWS, composite vital sign score), lower antibiotic use and less respiratory and cardiovascular support than W1. The proportion of CYP admitted to critical care was unchanged. 58.0% (938/1617) of symptomatic CYP had no reported comorbidity. Patients without co-morbidities were younger (42.4%, 398/938, <1 year), had lower PEWS, shorter length of stay and less respiratory support. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of increased disease severity in W2 vs W1. A large proportion of hospitalised CYP had no comorbidity. IMPACT: No evidence of increased severity of COVID-19 admissions amongst children and young people (CYP) in the second vs first wave in the UK, despite changes in variant, relaxation of shielding and return to face-to-face schooling. CYP with no comorbidities made up a significant proportion of those admitted. However, they had shorter length of stays and lower treatment requirements than CYP with comorbidities once those with MIS-C were excluded. At least 20% of CYP admitted in this cohort had asymptomatic/incidental SARS-CoV-2 infection. This paper was presented to SAGE to inform CYP vaccination policy in the UK.


COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections , Humans , Child , Adolescent , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , Prospective Studies , United Kingdom/epidemiology
4.
Expert Rev Respir Med ; 17(12): 1249-1259, 2023 Dec.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38240133

INTRODUCTION: A child's living environment has a significant impact on their respiratory health, with exposure to poor indoor air quality (IAQ) contributing to potentially lifelong respiratory morbidity. These effects occur throughout childhood, from the antenatal period through to adolescence. Children are particularly susceptible to the effects of environmental insults, and children living in socioeconomic deprivation globally are more likely to breathe air both indoors and outdoors, which poses an acute and long-term risk to their health. Adult respiratory health is, at least in part, determined by exposures and respiratory system development in childhood, starting in utero. AREAS COVERED: This narrative review will discuss, from a global perspective, what contributes to poor IAQ in the child's home and school environment and the impact that indoor air pollution exposure has on respiratory health throughout the different stages of childhood. EXPERT OPINION: All children have the right to a living and educational environment without the threat of pollution affecting their health. Action is needed at multiple levels to address this pressing issue to improve lifelong respiratory health. Such action should incorporate a child's rights-based approach, empowering children, and their families, to have access to clean air to breathe in their living environment.


Air Pollutants , Air Pollution, Indoor , Asthma , Pregnancy , Child , Adolescent , Humans , Female , Air Pollution, Indoor/adverse effects , Lung/chemistry , Disease Progression , Air Pollutants/adverse effects , Air Pollutants/analysis
5.
Thorax ; 77(6): 606-615, 2022 06.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34810237

PURPOSE: To prospectively validate two risk scores to predict mortality (4C Mortality) and in-hospital deterioration (4C Deterioration) among adults hospitalised with COVID-19. METHODS: Prospective observational cohort study of adults (age ≥18 years) with confirmed or highly suspected COVID-19 recruited into the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study in 306 hospitals across England, Scotland and Wales. Patients were recruited between 27 August 2020 and 17 February 2021, with at least 4 weeks follow-up before final data extraction. The main outcome measures were discrimination and calibration of models for in-hospital deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) and mortality, incorporating predefined subgroups. RESULTS: 76 588 participants were included, of whom 27 352 (37.4%) deteriorated and 12 581 (17.4%) died. Both the 4C Mortality (0.78 (0.77 to 0.78)) and 4C Deterioration scores (pooled C-statistic 0.76 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.77)) demonstrated consistent discrimination across all nine National Health Service regions, with similar performance metrics to the original validation cohorts. Calibration remained stable (4C Mortality: pooled slope 1.09, pooled calibration-in-the-large 0.12; 4C Deterioration: 1.00, -0.04), with no need for temporal recalibration during the second UK pandemic wave of hospital admissions. CONCLUSION: Both 4C risk stratification models demonstrate consistent performance to predict clinical deterioration and mortality in a large prospective second wave validation cohort of UK patients. Despite recent advances in the treatment and management of adults hospitalised with COVID-19, both scores can continue to inform clinical decision making. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN66726260.


COVID-19 , Adolescent , Adult , COVID-19/therapy , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Observational Studies as Topic , Prognosis , SARS-CoV-2 , State Medicine , World Health Organization
6.
Lancet ; 398(10296): 223-237, 2021 07 17.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34274064

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a multisystem disease and patients who survive might have in-hospital complications. These complications are likely to have important short-term and long-term consequences for patients, health-care utilisation, health-care system preparedness, and society amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Our aim was to characterise the extent and effect of COVID-19 complications, particularly in those who survive, using the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK. METHODS: We did a prospective, multicentre cohort study in 302 UK health-care facilities. Adult patients aged 19 years or older, with confirmed or highly suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection leading to COVID-19 were included in the study. The primary outcome of this study was the incidence of in-hospital complications, defined as organ-specific diagnoses occurring alone or in addition to any hallmarks of COVID-19 illness. We used multilevel logistic regression and survival models to explore associations between these outcomes and in-hospital complications, age, and pre-existing comorbidities. FINDINGS: Between Jan 17 and Aug 4, 2020, 80 388 patients were included in the study. Of the patients admitted to hospital for management of COVID-19, 49·7% (36 367 of 73 197) had at least one complication. The mean age of our cohort was 71·1 years (SD 18·7), with 56·0% (41 025 of 73 197) being male and 81·0% (59 289 of 73 197) having at least one comorbidity. Males and those aged older than 60 years were most likely to have a complication (aged ≥60 years: 54·5% [16 579 of 30 416] in males and 48·2% [11 707 of 24 288] in females; aged <60 years: 48·8% [5179 of 10 609] in males and 36·6% [2814 of 7689] in females). Renal (24·3%, 17 752 of 73 197), complex respiratory (18·4%, 13 486 of 73 197), and systemic (16·3%, 11 895 of 73 197) complications were the most frequent. Cardiovascular (12·3%, 8973 of 73 197), neurological (4·3%, 3115 of 73 197), and gastrointestinal or liver (0·8%, 7901 of 73 197) complications were also reported. INTERPRETATION: Complications and worse functional outcomes in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are high, even in young, previously healthy individuals. Acute complications are associated with reduced ability to self-care at discharge, with neurological complications being associated with the worst functional outcomes. COVID-19 complications are likely to cause a substantial strain on health and social care in the coming years. These data will help in the design and provision of services aimed at the post-hospitalisation care of patients with COVID-19. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research and the UK Medical Research Council.


COVID-19/complications , Clinical Protocols/standards , Comorbidity , Hospital Mortality , Hospitalization , Age Factors , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cardiovascular Diseases , Female , Hospitals , Humans , Male , Nervous System Diseases , Prospective Studies , Respiratory Tract Diseases , SARS-CoV-2 , United Kingdom/epidemiology , World Health Organization
7.
Eur Respir J ; 58(5)2021 10.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33863747

BACKGROUND: Diagnosing asthma in children represents an important clinical challenge. There is no single gold-standard test to confirm the diagnosis. Consequently, over- and under-diagnosis of asthma is frequent in children. METHODS: A task force supported by the European Respiratory Society has developed these evidence-based clinical practice guidelines for the diagnosis of asthma in children aged 5-16 years using nine Population, Intervention, Comparator and Outcome (PICO) questions. The task force conducted systematic literature searches for all PICO questions and screened the outputs from these, including relevant full-text articles. All task force members approved the final decision for inclusion of research papers. The task force assessed the quality of the evidence using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. RESULTS: The task force then developed a diagnostic algorithm based on the critical appraisal of the PICO questions, preferences expressed by lay members and test availability. Proposed cut-offs were determined based on the best available evidence. The task force formulated recommendations using the GRADE Evidence to Decision framework. CONCLUSION: Based on the critical appraisal of the evidence and the Evidence to Decision framework, the task force recommends spirometry, bronchodilator reversibility testing and exhaled nitric oxide fraction as first-line diagnostic tests in children under investigation for asthma. The task force recommends against diagnosing asthma in children based on clinical history alone or following a single abnormal objective test. Finally, this guideline also proposes a set of research priorities to improve asthma diagnosis in children in the future.


Asthma , Asthma/diagnosis , Asthma/drug therapy , Bronchodilator Agents/therapeutic use , Child , Exhalation , Humans , Nitric Oxide , Spirometry
8.
Lancet Respir Med ; 9(4): 349-359, 2021 04.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33444539

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models to predict the risk of clinical deterioration in acute COVID-19 cases are urgently required to inform clinical management decisions. METHODS: We developed and validated a multivariable logistic regression model for in-hospital clinical deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) among consecutively hospitalised adults with highly suspected or confirmed COVID-19 who were prospectively recruited to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (ISARIC4C) study across 260 hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales. Candidate predictors that were specified a priori were considered for inclusion in the model on the basis of previous prognostic scores and emerging literature describing routinely measured biomarkers associated with COVID-19 prognosis. We used internal-external cross-validation to evaluate discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across eight National Health Service (NHS) regions in the development cohort. We further validated the final model in held-out data from an additional NHS region (London). FINDINGS: 74 944 participants (recruited between Feb 6 and Aug 26, 2020) were included, of whom 31 924 (43·2%) of 73 948 with available outcomes met the composite clinical deterioration outcome. In internal-external cross-validation in the development cohort of 66 705 participants, the selected model (comprising 11 predictors routinely measured at the point of hospital admission) showed consistent discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across all eight NHS regions. In held-out data from London (n=8239), the model showed a similarly consistent performance (C-statistic 0·77 [95% CI 0·76 to 0·78]; calibration-in-the-large 0·00 [-0·05 to 0·05]); calibration slope 0·96 [0·91 to 1·01]), and greater net benefit than any other reproducible prognostic model. INTERPRETATION: The 4C Deterioration model has strong potential for clinical utility and generalisability to predict clinical deterioration and inform decision making among adults hospitalised with COVID-19. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Department for International Development, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, EU Platform for European Preparedness Against (Re-)emerging Epidemics, NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool, NIHR HPRU in Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London.


COVID-19/diagnosis , Clinical Decision Rules , Clinical Decision-Making/methods , Clinical Deterioration , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/therapy , Critical Care/statistics & numerical data , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Intensive Care Units/statistics & numerical data , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Patient Admission/statistics & numerical data , Prognosis , Prospective Studies , Reproducibility of Results , Respiration, Artificial/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Severity of Illness Index , United Kingdom/epidemiology
9.
Clin Exp Allergy ; 51(6): 790-800, 2021 06.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33274520

BACKGROUND: Sensitization to thermotolerant fungi, including filamentous fungi and Candida albicans, is associated with poor lung function in adults with severe asthma. Data in children are lacking. Environmental exposure to fungi is linked with acute severe asthma attacks, but there are few studies reporting the presence of fungi in the airways during asthma attacks. METHODS: We investigated the association between fungal sensitization and/or positive fungal sputum culture and markers of asthma severity in children with chronic and acute asthma. Sensitization was determined using serum-specific IgE and skin prick testing against a panel of five fungi. Fungal culture was focused towards detection of filamentous fungi from sputum samples. RESULTS: We obtained sensitization data and/or sputum from 175 children: 99 with chronic asthma, 39 with acute asthma and 37 controls. 34.1% of children with chronic asthma were sensitized to thermotolerant fungi compared with no children without asthma (p =< 0.001). These children had worse pre-bronchodilator lung function compared with asthmatics without sensitization including a lower FEV1 /FVC ratio (p < .05). The isolation rate of filamentous fungi from sputum was higher in children with acute compared with chronic asthma. CONCLUSIONS: Fungal sensitization is a feature of children with chronic asthma. Children sensitized to thermotolerant fungi have worse lung function, require more courses of systemic corticosteroids and have greater limitation of activities due to asthma. Asthma attacks in children were associated with the presence of filamentous fungi positive sputum culture. Mechanistic studies are required to establish whether fungi contribute directly to the development of acute asthma.


Asthma/immunology , Immunoglobulin E/immunology , Adolescent , Alternaria/immunology , Animals , Antigens, Dermatophagoides/immunology , Aspergillus fumigatus/immunology , Asthma/microbiology , Asthma/physiopathology , Candida albicans/immunology , Child , Child, Preschool , Cladosporium/immunology , Dander/immunology , Disease Progression , Female , Forced Expiratory Volume , Humans , Male , Penicillium chrysogenum/immunology , Poaceae/immunology , Pollen/immunology , Severity of Illness Index , Skin Tests , Sputum/microbiology , Vital Capacity
10.
ERJ Open Res ; 6(4)2020 Oct.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33263021

INTRODUCTION: Investigating acute multifactorial undifferentiated breathlessness and understanding the driving inflammatory processes can be technically challenging in both adults and children. Being able to validate noninvasive methods such as breath analysis would be a huge clinical advance. The ReCIVA® device allows breath samples to be collected directly onto sorbent tubes at the bedside for analysis of exhaled volatile organic compounds (eVOCs). We aimed to assess the feasibility of using this device in acutely breathless patients. METHODS: Adults hospitalised with acute breathlessness and children aged 5-16 years with acute asthma or chronic stable asthma, as well as healthy adult and child volunteers, were recruited. Breath samples were collected onto sorbent tubes using the ReCIVA® device and sent for analysis by means of two-dimensional gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GCxGC-MS). The NASA Task Load Index (NASA-TLX) was used to assess the perceived task workload of undertaking sampling from the patient's perspective. RESULTS: Data were available for 65 adults and 61 children recruited. In total, 98.4% of adults and 75.4% of children were able to provide the full target breath sample using the ReCIVA® device. NASA-TLX measurements were available in the adult population with mean values of 3.37 for effort, 2.34 for frustration, 3.8 for mental demand, 2.8 for performance, 3.9 for physical demand and 2.8 for temporal demand. DISCUSSION: This feasibility study demonstrates it is possible and acceptable to collect breath samples from both adults and children at the bedside for breathomics analysis using the ReCIVA® device.

11.
BMJ ; 370: m3249, 2020 08 27.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32960186

OBJECTIVE: To characterise the clinical features of children and young people admitted to hospital with laboratory confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the UK and explore factors associated with admission to critical care, mortality, and development of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children and adolescents temporarily related to coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) (MIS-C). DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study with rapid data gathering and near real time analysis. SETTING: 260 hospitals in England, Wales, and Scotland between 17 January and 3 July 2020, with a minimum follow-up time of two weeks (to 17 July 2020). PARTICIPANTS: 651 children and young people aged less than 19 years admitted to 138 hospitals and enrolled into the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emergency Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK study with laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Admission to critical care (high dependency or intensive care), in-hospital mortality, or meeting the WHO preliminary case definition for MIS-C. RESULTS: Median age was 4.6 (interquartile range 0.3-13.7) years, 35% (225/651) were under 12 months old, and 56% (367/650) were male. 57% (330/576) were white, 12% (67/576) South Asian, and 10% (56/576) black. 42% (276/651) had at least one recorded comorbidity. A systemic mucocutaneous-enteric cluster of symptoms was identified, which encompassed the symptoms for the WHO MIS-C criteria. 18% (116/632) of children were admitted to critical care. On multivariable analysis, this was associated with age under 1 month (odds ratio 3.21, 95% confidence interval 1.36 to 7.66; P=0.008), age 10-14 years (3.23, 1.55 to 6.99; P=0.002), and black ethnicity (2.82, 1.41 to 5.57; P=0.003). Six (1%) of 627 patients died in hospital, all of whom had profound comorbidity. 11% (52/456) met the WHO MIS-C criteria, with the first patient developing symptoms in mid-March. Children meeting MIS-C criteria were older (median age 10.7 (8.3-14.1) v 1.6 (0.2-12.9) years; P<0.001) and more likely to be of non-white ethnicity (64% (29/45) v 42% (148/355); P=0.004). Children with MIS-C were five times more likely to be admitted to critical care (73% (38/52) v 15% (62/404); P<0.001). In addition to the WHO criteria, children with MIS-C were more likely to present with fatigue (51% (24/47) v 28% (86/302); P=0.004), headache (34% (16/47) v 10% (26/263); P<0.001), myalgia (34% (15/44) v 8% (21/270); P<0.001), sore throat (30% (14/47) v (12% (34/284); P=0.003), and lymphadenopathy (20% (9/46) v 3% (10/318); P<0.001) and to have a platelet count of less than 150 × 109/L (32% (16/50) v 11% (38/348); P<0.001) than children who did not have MIS-C. No deaths occurred in the MIS-C group. CONCLUSIONS: Children and young people have less severe acute covid-19 than adults. A systemic mucocutaneous-enteric symptom cluster was also identified in acute cases that shares features with MIS-C. This study provides additional evidence for refining the WHO MIS-C preliminary case definition. Children meeting the MIS-C criteria have different demographic and clinical features depending on whether they have acute SARS-CoV-2 infection (polymerase chain reaction positive) or are post-acute (antibody positive). STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN66726260.


Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome/epidemiology , Adolescent , Age Factors , COVID-19 , Child , Child, Preschool , Cohort Studies , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Critical Care , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Respiration, Artificial , SARS-CoV-2 , Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome/diagnosis , Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome/therapy , United Kingdom , Young Adult
12.
BMJ ; 370: m3339, 2020 09 09.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32907855

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a pragmatic risk score to predict mortality in patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19). DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) World Health Organization (WHO) Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study (performed by the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium-ISARIC-4C) in 260 hospitals across England, Scotland, and Wales. Model training was performed on a cohort of patients recruited between 6 February and 20 May 2020, with validation conducted on a second cohort of patients recruited after model development between 21 May and 29 June 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (age ≥18 years) admitted to hospital with covid-19 at least four weeks before final data extraction. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: In-hospital mortality. RESULTS: 35 463 patients were included in the derivation dataset (mortality rate 32.2%) and 22 361 in the validation dataset (mortality rate 30.1%). The final 4C Mortality Score included eight variables readily available at initial hospital assessment: age, sex, number of comorbidities, respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, level of consciousness, urea level, and C reactive protein (score range 0-21 points). The 4C Score showed high discrimination for mortality (derivation cohort: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.79; validation cohort: 0.77, 0.76 to 0.77) with excellent calibration (validation: calibration-in-the-large=0, slope=1.0). Patients with a score of at least 15 (n=4158, 19%) had a 62% mortality (positive predictive value 62%) compared with 1% mortality for those with a score of 3 or less (n=1650, 7%; negative predictive value 99%). Discriminatory performance was higher than 15 pre-existing risk stratification scores (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve range 0.61-0.76), with scores developed in other covid-19 cohorts often performing poorly (range 0.63-0.73). CONCLUSIONS: An easy-to-use risk stratification score has been developed and validated based on commonly available parameters at hospital presentation. The 4C Mortality Score outperformed existing scores, showed utility to directly inform clinical decision making, and can be used to stratify patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 into different management groups. The score should be further validated to determine its applicability in other populations. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN66726260.


Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Hospitalization , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19 , Clinical Protocols , Cohort Studies , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Predictive Value of Tests , ROC Curve , Risk Assessment , SARS-CoV-2 , Survival Rate , United Kingdom
13.
BMJ ; 369: m1985, 2020 May 22.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32444460

OBJECTIVE: To characterise the clinical features of patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in the United Kingdom during the growth phase of the first wave of this outbreak who were enrolled in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) World Health Organization (WHO) Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study, and to explore risk factors associated with mortality in hospital. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study with rapid data gathering and near real time analysis. SETTING: 208 acute care hospitals in England, Wales, and Scotland between 6 February and 19 April 2020. A case report form developed by ISARIC and WHO was used to collect clinical data. A minimal follow-up time of two weeks (to 3 May 2020) allowed most patients to complete their hospital admission. PARTICIPANTS: 20 133 hospital inpatients with covid-19. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Admission to critical care (high dependency unit or intensive care unit) and mortality in hospital. RESULTS: The median age of patients admitted to hospital with covid-19, or with a diagnosis of covid-19 made in hospital, was 73 years (interquartile range 58-82, range 0-104). More men were admitted than women (men 60%, n=12 068; women 40%, n=8065). The median duration of symptoms before admission was 4 days (interquartile range 1-8). The commonest comorbidities were chronic cardiac disease (31%, 5469/17 702), uncomplicated diabetes (21%, 3650/17 599), non-asthmatic chronic pulmonary disease (18%, 3128/17 634), and chronic kidney disease (16%, 2830/17 506); 23% (4161/18 525) had no reported major comorbidity. Overall, 41% (8199/20 133) of patients were discharged alive, 26% (5165/20 133) died, and 34% (6769/20 133) continued to receive care at the reporting date. 17% (3001/18 183) required admission to high dependency or intensive care units; of these, 28% (826/3001) were discharged alive, 32% (958/3001) died, and 41% (1217/3001) continued to receive care at the reporting date. Of those receiving mechanical ventilation, 17% (276/1658) were discharged alive, 37% (618/1658) died, and 46% (764/1658) remained in hospital. Increasing age, male sex, and comorbidities including chronic cardiac disease, non-asthmatic chronic pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, liver disease and obesity were associated with higher mortality in hospital. CONCLUSIONS: ISARIC WHO CCP-UK is a large prospective cohort study of patients in hospital with covid-19. The study continues to enrol at the time of this report. In study participants, mortality was high, independent risk factors were increasing age, male sex, and chronic comorbidity, including obesity. This study has shown the importance of pandemic preparedness and the need to maintain readiness to launch research studies in response to outbreaks. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN66726260.


Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Child , Child, Preschool , Comorbidity , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Critical Care , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Prospective Studies , Respiration, Artificial , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Sex Factors , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Young Adult
14.
Ann Vasc Surg ; 62: 498.e15-498.e17, 2020 Jan.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31449933

BACKGROUND: Central venous stenosis and occlusion (CVO) is an increasing problem in the growing hemodialysis population. Sequelae include loss of access, loss of sites suitable for future venous access, and venous hypertension. Endoluminal techniques are often unsuitable to treat long-standing stenoses, and open surgery confers higher morbidity and is not appropriate in many patients. CASE: We present a case of long-standing central venous stenosis with an ipsilateral functioning fistula but with significant symptoms and signs of venous hypertension. The stenosis was not considered appropriate for endoluminal treatment, and the patient was considered to be at too high risk for open surgery. The Hemodialysis Reliable Outflow (HeRO) (Merit Medical Systems, UT) device was used to bypass the fistula to the superior vena cava via the contralateral internal jugular vein. CONCLUSIONS: This case demonstrates the utility of the HeRO device in cases of long-standing CVO necessitating contralateral bypass. This technique confers the benefits of open surgery while minimizing the associated risks.


Arteriovenous Shunt, Surgical , Blood Vessel Prosthesis Implantation/instrumentation , Blood Vessel Prosthesis , Central Venous Pressure , Kidney Failure, Chronic/therapy , Renal Dialysis , Upper Extremity/blood supply , Vascular Diseases/surgery , Vascular Patency , Catheterization, Central Venous , Female , Humans , Kidney Failure, Chronic/diagnosis , Middle Aged , Prosthesis Design , Renal Dialysis/adverse effects , Treatment Outcome , Vascular Diseases/diagnostic imaging , Vascular Diseases/etiology , Vascular Diseases/physiopathology
15.
Pediatr Allergy Immunol Pulmonol ; 30(4): 210-217, 2017 Dec.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35923020

Background: Preschool wheezing is common and many children experience exacerbations and are well in between. Raised blood eosinophils in older children are associated with exacerbation-prone wheeze, but there are currently no biomarkers to predict near-future exacerbations in preschoolers. There is evidence suggesting that eosinophils are acutely activated during an exacerbation using urinary markers, however, it is unknown whether blood eosinophil numbers fluctuate between the time of an exacerbation and stable disease. Objective: To investigate whether, in children with preschool wheeze, blood eosinophil numbers are different during an acute wheezing episode compared with periods of stable disease. Methods: Blood samples were taken from children aged 10 months to 6 years, presenting with acute, doctor-diagnosed wheeze, and tested for absolute leukocyte differential cell numbers. A repeat blood sample was obtained in a subset of children after full recovery. Main Outcome Measure: Difference between blood eosinophil counts during an acute wheezing episode and after recovery (stable disease) was also obtained. Results: Eighty-five children participated in this study, with 68 recruited during an acute wheezing episode (median absolute blood eosinophil numbers 0.10 × 109/L [range 0.00-2.41]) and 17 healthy controls. There was no significant difference in absolute blood eosinophil numbers between the acutely wheezy children when compared with the controls (median 0.17 × 109/L range 0.00-0.83). Absolute blood eosinophil numbers during stable disease were significantly greater (median 0.43 × 109/L; range 0.12 × 1.25 × 109/L) compared with periods of exacerbation (median 0.11 × 109/L range 0.01-1.10) in 20 children in whom paired blood samples were available. Absolute blood lymphocyte numbers were also higher during periods of stable disease, whereas absolute blood neutrophil numbers were higher during the exacerbation. Conclusions: Greater numbers of blood eosinophils are present during stable disease compared with the exacerbation state. This is an important consideration when planning future studies using blood eosinophils as a biomarker in wheezy preschool children.

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