HIV risk behaviour, viraemia, and transmission across HIV cascade stages including low-level viremia: Analysis of 14 cross-sectional population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in sub-Saharan Africa.

As antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage for people living with HIV (PLHIV) increases, HIV programmes require up-to-date information about evolving HIV risk behaviour and transmission risk, including those with low-level viremia (LLV; >50 to ≤1000 copies/mL), to guide prevention priorities. We aimed to assess differences in sexual risk behaviours, distribution of viral load (VL) and proportion of transmission across PLHIV subgroups. We analysed data from Population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in 14 sub-Saharan African countries during 2015-2019. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) of self-reported HIV high-risk behaviour (multiple partners and condomless sex) across cascade stages via generalised estimation equations. We modelled the proportions of transmission from each subgroup using relative self-reported sexual risk, a Hill function for transmission rate by VL, and proportions within cascade stages from surveys and UNAIDS country estimates for 2010-2020. Compared to PLHIV with undetectable VL (≤50 copies/mL), undiagnosed PLHIV (aPR women: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.08-1.52]; men: 1.61 [1.33-1.95]) and men diagnosed but untreated (2.06 [1.52-2.78]) were more likely to self-report high-risk sex. High-risk behaviour was not significantly associated with LLV. Mean VL was similar among undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, and on ART but non-suppressed sub-groups. Across surveys, undiagnosed and diagnosed but untreated contributed most to transmission (40-91% and 1-41%, respectively), with less than 1% from those with LLV. Between 2010 and 2020, the proportion of transmission from individuals on ART but non-suppressed increased. In settings with high ART coverage, effective HIV testing, ART linkage, and retention remain priorities to reduce HIV transmission. Persons with LLV are an increasing share of PLHIV but their contribution to HIV transmission was small. Improving suppression among PLHIV on ART with VL ≥1000 copies/mL will become increasingly important.

Brief Report: Self-Reported HIV-Positive Status but Subsequent HIV-Negative Test Results in Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Survey Participants-11 Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2015-2018.

BACKGROUND: HIV testing is a critical step to accessing antiretroviral therapy (ART) because early diagnosis can facilitate earlier initiation of ART. This study presents aggregated data of individuals who self-reported being HIV-positive but subsequently tested HIV-negative during nationally representative Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys conducted in 11 countries from 2015 to 2018. METHOD: Survey participants aged 15 years or older were interviewed by trained personnel using a standard questionnaire to determine HIV testing history and self-reported HIV status. Home-based HIV testing and counseling using rapid diagnostic tests with return of results were performed by survey staff according to the respective national HIV testing services algorithms on venous blood samples. Laboratory-based confirmatory HIV testing for all participants identified as HIV-positives and self-reported positives, irrespective of HIV testing results, was conducted and included Geenius HIV-1/2 and DNA polymerase chain reaction if Geenius was negative or indeterminate. RESULTS: Of the 16,630 participants who self-reported as HIV-positive, 16,432 (98.6%) were confirmed as HIV-positive and 198 (1.4%) were HIV-negative by subsequent laboratory-based testing. Participants who self-reported as HIV-positive but tested HIV-negative were significantly younger than 30 years, less likely to have received ART, and less likely to have received a CD4 test compared with participants who self-reported as HIV-positive with laboratory-confirmed infection. CONCLUSIONS: A small proportion of self-reported HIV-positive individuals could not be confirmed as positive, which could be due to initial misdiagnosis, deliberate wrong self-report, or misunderstanding of the questionnaire. As universal ART access is expanding, it is increasingly important to ensure quality of HIV testing and confirmation of HIV diagnosis before ART initiation.

Trends in HIV prevalence, incidence, and progress towards the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets in Malawi among individuals aged 15-64 years: population-based HIV impact assessments, 2015-16 and 2020-21.

BACKGROUND: In 2014, UNAIDS set the goal of ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030 through the achievement of testing and treatment cascade targets. To evaluate progress achieved and highlight persisting gaps in HIV epidemic control in Malawi, we aimed to compare key indicators (prevalence, incidence, viral load suppression, and UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets) from the 2015-16 and 2020-21 Malawi Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) survey results. METHODS: The Malawi PHIAs were nationally representative, cross-sectional surveys with a two-stage cluster sampling design. The first survey was conducted between Nov 27, 2015, and Aug 26, 2016; the second survey was conducted between Jan 15, 2020, and April 26, 2021. Our analysis included survey participants aged 15-64 years. Participants were interviewed and a 14 mL blood sample was collected and tested for HIV infection using the national rapid testing algorithm. For each survey, we estimated key HIV epidemic indicators and achievement of 95-95-95 targets. The risk ratio (RR) of the indicators between surveys were computed and considered significant at a confidence level of 0·05. All results were weighted, and self-reported awareness and treatment status were adjusted to account for detection of antiretrovirals. FINDINGS: Our analysis included 17 187 participants aged 15-64 years in 2015-16 and 21 208 in 2020-21 who participated in the surveys and blood draw. In the 2020-21 survey, 88·4% (95% CI 86·7-90·0) of people living with HIV were aware of their HIV-positive status; of those aware, 97·8% (97·1-98·5) were on antiretroviral therapy; and of those on treatment, 96·9% (95·9-97·7) were virally suppressed. Between surveys, the national HIV prevalence decreased significantly from 10·6% (10·0-11·2) to 8·9% (8·4-9·5) with RR 0·85 (95% CI 0·78-0·92; p<0·0001). The annual HIV incidence decreased from 0·37% (0·20-0·53) to 0·22% (0·11-0·34) with RR 0·61 (95% CI 0·31-1·20; p=0·15). The population viral load suppression increased from 68·3% (66·0-70·7) in 2015-16 to 87·0% (85·3-88·5) in 2020-21 (RR 1·27 [95% CI 1·22-1·32]; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: These results suggest that Malawi had already surpassed the UNAIDS viral load suppression target for 2030 (85·7%) by 2020-21. Through strategies and evidence-informed interventions implemented in the last half decade, especially scale-up of effective HIV treatment, Malawi has made tremendous progress, including decreasing HIV prevalence and incidence and achieving both the second and third 95 targets ahead of 2030. To address the first 95, efforts in HIV diagnosis should focus on males and younger age groups. There is a continued need for effective linkage to care, retention on antiretroviral therapy, and adherence support to maintain and build on progress. FUNDING: US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The epidemiology of HIV population viral load in twelve sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: We examined the epidemiology and transmission potential of HIV population viral load (VL) in 12 sub-Saharan African countries. METHODS: We analyzed data from Population-based HIV Impact Assessments (PHIAs), large national household-based surveys conducted between 2015 and 2019 in Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Eswatini, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Blood-based biomarkers included HIV serology, recency of HIV infection, and VL. We estimated the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) with suppressed viral load (<1,000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL) and with unsuppressed viral load (viremic), the prevalence of unsuppressed HIV (population viremia), sex-specific HIV transmission ratios (number female incident HIV-1 infections/number unsuppressed male PLHIV per 100 persons-years [PY] and vice versa) and examined correlations between a variety of VL metrics and incident HIV. Country sample sizes ranged from 10,016 (Eswatini) to 30,637 (Rwanda); estimates were weighted and restricted to participants 15 years and older. RESULTS: The proportion of female PLHIV with viral suppression was higher than that among males in all countries, however, the number of unsuppressed females outnumbered that of unsuppressed males in all countries due to higher overall female HIV prevalence, with ratios ranging from 1.08 to 2.10 (median: 1.43). The spatial distribution of HIV seroprevalence, viremia prevalence, and number of unsuppressed adults often differed substantially within the same countries. The 1% and 5% of PLHIV with the highest VL on average accounted for 34% and 66%, respectively, of countries' total VL. HIV transmission ratios varied widely across countries and were higher for male-to-female (range: 2.3-28.3/100 PY) than for female-to-male transmission (range: 1.5-10.6/100 PY). In all countries mean log10 VL among unsuppressed males was higher than that among females. Correlations between VL measures and incident HIV varied, were weaker for VL metrics among females compared to males and were strongest for the number of unsuppressed PLHIV per 100 HIV-negative adults (R2 = 0.92). CONCLUSIONS: Despite higher proportions of viral suppression, female unsuppressed PLHIV outnumbered males in all countries examined. Unsuppressed male PLHIV have consistently higher VL and a higher risk of transmitting HIV than females. Just 5% of PLHIV account for almost two-thirds of countries' total VL. Population-level VL metrics help monitor the epidemic and highlight key programmatic gaps in these African countries.

Toward elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Malawi: Findings from the Malawi Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (2015-2016).

BACKGROUND: Malawi spearheaded the development and implementation of Option B+ for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT), providing life-long ART for all HIV-positive pregnant and breastfeeding women. We used data from the 2015-2016 Malawi Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (MPHIA) to estimate progress toward 90-90-90 targets (90% of those with HIV know their HIV-positive status; of these, 90% are receiving ART; and of these, 90% have viral load suppression [VLS]) for HIV-positive women reporting a live birth in the previous 3 years. METHODS: MPHIA was a nationally representative household survey; consenting eligible women aged 15-64 years were interviewed on pregnancies and outcomes, including HIV status during their most recent pregnancy, PMTCT uptake, and early infant diagnosis (EID) testing. Descriptive analyses were weighted to account for the complex survey design. Viral load (VL) results were categorized by VLS (<1,000 copies/mL) and undetectable VL (target not detected/below the limit of detection). RESULTS: Of the 3,153 women included in our analysis, 371 (10.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.8%-11.3%) tested HIV positive in the survey. Most HIV-positive women (84.2%, 95% CI: 79.9%-88.6%) reported knowing their HIV-positive status; of these, 94.9% (95% CI: 91.7%-98.2%) were receiving ART; and of these, 91.2% (95% CI: 87.4%-95.0%) had VLS. Among the 371 HIV-positive women, 76.0% (95% CI: 70.4%-81.7%) had VLS and 66.5% (95% CI: 59.8%-73.2%) had undetectable VL. Among 262 HIV-exposed children, 50.8% (95% CI: 42.8%-58.8%) received EID testing within 2 months of birth, whereas 17.9% (95% CI: 11.9%-23.8%) did not receive EID testing. Of 190 HIV-exposed children with a reported HIV test result, 2.1% (95% CI: 0.0%-4.6%) had positive results. CONCLUSIONS: MPHIA data demonstrate high PMTCT uptake at a population level. However, our results identify some gaps in VLS in postpartum women and EID testing.

HIV incidence and prevalence among adults aged 15-64 years in Rwanda: Results from the Rwanda Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (RPHIA) and District-level Modeling, 2019.

OBJECTIVES: The 2018-2019 Rwanda Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (RPHIA) was conducted to measure national HIV incidence and prevalence. District-level estimates were modeled to inform resources allocation. METHODS: RPHIA was a nationally representative cross-sectional household survey. Consenting adults were interviewed and tested for HIV using the national diagnostic algorithm followed by laboratory-based confirmation of HIV status and testing for viral load (VL), limiting antigen (LAg) avidity, and presence of antiretrovirals. Incidence was calculated using normalized optical density ≤ 1·5, VL ≥ 1,000 copies/mL, and undetectable antiretrovirals. Survey and programmatic data were used to model district-level HIV incidence and prevalence. RESULTS: Of 31,028 eligible adults, 98·7% participated in RPHIA and 934 tested HIV positive. HIV prevalence among adults in Rwanda was 3·0% (95% CI:2·7-3·3). National HIV incidence was 0·08% (95% CI:0·02-0·14) and 0·11% (95% CI:0·00-0·26) in the City of Kigali (CoK). Based on district-level modeling, HIV incidence was greatest in the 3 CoK districts (0·11% to 0·15%) and varied across other districts (0·03% to 0·10%). CONCLUSIONS: HIV prevalence among adults in Rwanda is 3.0%; HIV incidence is low at 0.08%. District-level modeling has identified disproportionately affected urban hotspots: areas to focus resources.

Prevalence of and factors associated with late diagnosis of HIV in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe: Results from population-based nationally representative surveys.

INTRODUCTION: Late diagnosis of HIV (LD) increases the risk of morbidity, mortality, and HIV transmission. We used nationally representative data from population-based HIV impact assessment (PHIA) surveys in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe (2015-2016) to characterize adults at risk of LD and to examine associations between LD and presumed HIV transmission to cohabiting sexual partners. METHODS: We estimated the prevalence of LD, defined as CD4 count <350 cells/µL, among adults newly diagnosed with HIV during the surveys and odds ratios for associated factors. We linked newly diagnosed adults (index cases) to their household sexual partners and calculated adjusted odds ratios for associations between LD of the index case, viral load of the index case, and duration of HIV exposure in the relationship, and the HIV status of the household sexual partner. RESULTS: Of 1,804 adults who were newly diagnosed with HIV in the surveys, 49% (882) were diagnosed late. LD was associated with male sex, older age, and almost five times the odds of having an HIV-positive household sexual partner (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.65 [95% confidence interval: 2.56-8.45]). Longer duration of HIV exposure in a relationship and higher viral load of the index case were both independently associated with higher odds of having HIV-positive household sexual partners. Individuals with HIV exposure of more than 5 years had more than three times (aOR 3.42 [95% CI: 1.63-7.18]) higher odds of being HIV positive than those with less than 2 years HIV exposure. The odds of being HIV positive were increased in individuals who were in a relationship with an index case with a viral load of 400-3499 copies/mL (aOR 4.06 [95% CI 0.45-36.46]), 3,500-9,999 copies/mL (aOR 11.32 [95% CI: 4.08-31.39]), 10,000-49,999 copies/mL (aOR 17.07 [95% CI: 9.18-31.72]), and ≥50,000 copies/mL (aOR 28.41 [95% CI: 12.18-66.28]) compared to individuals who were in a relationship with an index case with a viral load of <400 copies/mL. CONCLUSIONS: LD remains a challenge in Southern Africa and is strongly associated with presumed HIV transmission to household sexual partners. Our study underscores the need for earlier HIV diagnosis, particularly among men and older adults, and the importance of index testing.

Disease progression and mortality with untreated HIV infection: evidence synthesis of HIV seroconverter cohorts, antiretroviral treatment clinical cohorts and population-based survey data.

INTRODUCTION: Model-based estimates of key HIV indicators depend on past epidemic trends that are derived based on assumptions about HIV disease progression and mortality in the absence of antiretroviral treatment (ART). Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) household surveys conducted between 2015 and 2018 found substantial numbers of respondents living with untreated HIV infection. CD4 cell counts measured in these individuals provide novel information to estimate HIV disease progression and mortality rates off ART. METHODS: We used Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis to combine data on (1) cross-sectional CD4 cell counts among untreated adults living with HIV from 10 PHIA surveys, (2) survival after HIV seroconversion in East African seroconverter cohorts, (3) post-seroconversion CD4 counts and (4) mortality rates by CD4 count predominantly from European, North American and Australian seroconverter cohorts. We used incremental mixture importance sampling to estimate HIV natural history and ART uptake parameters used in the Spectrum software. We validated modelled trends in CD4 count at ART initiation against ART initiator cohorts in sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: Median untreated HIV survival decreased with increasing age at seroconversion, from 12.5 years [95% credible interval (CrI): 12.1-12.7] at ages 15-24 to 7.2 years (95% CrI: 7.1-7.7) at ages 45-54. Older age was associated with lower initial CD4 counts, faster CD4 count decline and higher HIV-related mortality rates. Our estimates suggested a weaker association between ART uptake and HIV-related mortality rates than previously assumed in Spectrum. Modelled CD4 counts in untreated people living with HIV matched recent household survey data well, though some intercountry variation in frequencies of CD4 counts above 500 cells/mm3 was not explained. Trends in CD4 counts at ART initiation were comparable to data from ART initiator cohorts. An alternate model that stratified progression and mortality rates by sex did not improve model fit appreciably. CONCLUSIONS: Synthesis of multiple data sources results in similar overall survival as previous Spectrum parameter assumptions but implies more rapid progression and longer survival in lower CD4 categories. New natural history parameter values improve consistency of model estimates with recent cross-sectional CD4 data and trends in CD4 counts at ART initiation.

Opportunities for Closing the Gap in HIV Diagnosis, Treatment, and Viral Load Suppression in Children in Malawi: Results From a 2015-2016 Population-based HIV Impact Assessment Survey.

BACKGROUND: Control of the pediatric HIV epidemic is hampered by gaps in diagnosis and linkage to effective treatment. The 2015-2016 Malawi Population-based HIV impact assessment data were analyzed to identify gaps in pediatric HIV diagnosis, treatment, and viral load suppression. METHODS: In half of the surveyed households, children ages ≥18 months to <15 years were tested using the national HIV rapid test algorithm. Children ≤18 months reactive by the initial rapid test underwent HIV total nucleic acid polymerase chain reaction confirmatory testing. Blood from HIV-positive children was tested for viral load (VL) and presence of antiretroviral drugs. HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral treatment (ART) use were defined using guardian-reporting or antiretroviral detection. RESULTS: Of the 6166 children tested, 99 were HIV-positive for a prevalence of 1.5% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.1-1.9) and 8.0% (95% CI: 5.6-10.5) among HIV-exposed children. The prevalence of 1.5% was extrapolated to a national estimate of 119,501 (95% CI: 89,028-149,974) children living with HIV (CLHIV), of whom, 30.7% (95% CI: 20.3-41.1) were previously undiagnosed. Of the 69.3% diagnosed CLHIV, 86.1% (95% CI: 76.8-95.6) were on ART and 57.9% (95% CI: 41.4-74.4) of those on ART had suppressed VL (<1000 HIV RNA copies/mL). Among all CLHIV, irrespective of HIV diagnosis or ART use, 57.7% (95% CI: 45.0-70.5) had unsuppressed VL. CONCLUSIONS: Critical gaps in HIV diagnosis in children persist in Malawi. The large proportion of CLHIV with unsuppressed VL reflects gaps in diagnosis and need for more effective first- and second-line ART regimens and adherence interventions.

Population-Based HIV Impact Assessments Survey Methods, Response, and Quality in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia.

BACKGROUND: The population-based HIV impact assessment (population-based HIV impact assessments) surveys are among the first to estimate national adult HIV incidence, subnational prevalence of viral load suppression, and pediatric HIV prevalence. We summarize the survey methods implemented in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia, as well as response rates and quality metrics. METHODS: Each cross-sectional, household-based survey used a 2-stage cluster design. Survey preparations included sample design, questionnaire development, tablet programming for informed consent and data collection, community mobilization, establishing a network of satellite laboratories, and fieldworker training. Interviewers collected demographic, behavioral, and clinical information using tablets. Blood was collected for home-based HIV testing and counseling (HBTC) and point-of-care CD4+ T-cell enumeration with results immediately returned. HIV-positive blood samples underwent laboratory-based confirmatory testing, HIV incidence testing, RNA polymerase chain reaction (viral load), DNA polymerase chain reaction (early infant diagnosis), and serum antiretroviral drug detection. Data were weighted for survey design, and chi square automatic interaction detection-based methods were used to adjust for nonresponse. RESULTS: Each survey recruited a nationally representative, household-based sample of children and adults over a 6-10-month period in 2015 and 2016. Most (84%-90%) of the 12,000-14,000 eligible households in each country participated in the survey, with 77%-81% of eligible adults completing an interview and providing blood for HIV testing. Among eligible children, 59%-73% completed HIV testing. Across the 3 surveys, 97.8% of interview data were complete and had no errors. CONCLUSION: Conducting a national population-based HIV impact assessment with immediate return of HIV and other point-of-care test results was feasible, and data quality was high.

Screening for HIV Among Patients at Tuberculosis Clinics - Results from Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Surveys, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, 2015-2016.

The World Health Organization and national guidelines recommend HIV testing and counseling at tuberculosis (TB) clinics for all patients, regardless of TB diagnosis (1). Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) survey data for 2015-2016 in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe were analyzed to assess HIV screening at TB clinics among persons who had positive HIV test results in the survey. The analysis was stratified by history of TB diagnosis* (presumptive versus confirmed†), awareness§ of HIV-positive status, antiretroviral therapy (ART)¶ status, and viral load suppression among HIV-positive adults, by history of TB clinic visit. The percentage of adults who reported having ever visited a TB clinic ranged from 4.7% to 9.7%. Among all TB clinic attendees, the percentage who reported that they had received HIV testing during a TB clinic visit ranged from 48.0% to 62.1% across the three countries. Among adults who received a positive HIV test result during PHIA and who did not receive a test for HIV at a previous TB clinic visit, 29.4% (Malawi), 21.9% (Zambia), and 16.2% (Zimbabwe) reported that they did not know their HIV status at the time of the TB clinic visit. These findings represent missed opportunities for HIV screening and linkage to HIV care. In all three countries, viral load suppression rates were significantly higher among those who reported ever visiting a TB clinic than among those who had not (p<0.001). National programs could strengthen HIV screening at TB clinics and leverage them as entry points into the HIV diagnosis and treatment cascade (i.e., testing, initiation of treatment, and viral load suppression).

Population Viral Load, Viremia, and Recent HIV-1 Infections: Findings From Population-Based HIV Impact Assessments (PHIAs) in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia.

BACKGROUND: HIV population viral load (PVL) can reflect antiretroviral therapy program effectiveness and transmission potential in a community. Using nationally representative data from household surveys conducted in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia in 2015-16, we examined the association between various VL measures and the probability of at least one recent HIV-1 infection in the community. METHODS: We used limiting-antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay, viral load suppression (VLS) (HIV RNA <1000 copies/mL), and antiretrovirals in the blood to identify recent HIV-1 cases. RESULTS: Among 1510 enumeration areas (EAs) across the 3 surveys, 52,036 adults aged 15-59 years resided in 1363 (90.3%) EAs with at least one HIV-positive adult consenting to interview and blood draw and whose VL was tested. Mean HIV prevalence across these EAs was 13.1% [95% confidence intervals (CI) 12.7 to 13.5]. Mean VLS prevalence across these EAs was 58.7% (95% CI: 57.3 to 60.0). In multivariable analysis, PVL was associated with a recent HIV-1 case in that EA (adjusted odds ratio: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.2 to 1.6, P = 0.001). VLS prevalence was inversely correlated with recent infections (adjusted odds ratio: 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1 to 0.6, P = 0.004). The 90-90-90 indicators, namely, the prevalence of HIV diagnosis, antiretroviral therapy coverage, and VLS at the EA level, were inversely correlated with HIV recency at the EA level. CONCLUSIONS: We found a strong association between PVL and VLS prevalence and recent HIV-1 infection at the EA level across 3 southern African countries with generalized HIV epidemics. These results suggest that population-based measures of VLS in communities may serve as a proxy for epidemic control.

Prevalence of nonsuppressed viral load and associated factors among HIV-positive adults receiving antiretroviral therapy in Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe (2015 to 2017): results from population-based nationally representative surveys.

INTRODUCTION: The global target for 2020 is that ≥90% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) will achieve viral load suppression (VLS). We examined VLS and its determinants among adults receiving ART for at least four months. METHODS: We analysed data from the population-based HIV impact assessment (PHIA) surveys in Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe (2015 to 2017). PHIA surveys are nationally representative, cross-sectional household surveys. Data collection included structured interviews, home-based HIV testing and laboratory testing. Blood samples from PLHIV were analysed for HIV RNA, CD4 counts and recent exposure to antiretroviral drugs (ARVs). We calculated representative estimates for the prevalence of VLS (viral load <1000 copies/mL), nonsuppressed viral load (NVL; viral load ≥1000 copies/mL), virologic failure (VF; ARVs present and viral load ≥1000 copies/mL), interrupted ART (ARVs absent and viral load ≥1000 copies/mL) and rates of switching to second-line ART (protease inhibitors present) among PLHIV aged 15 to 59 years who participated in the PHIA surveys in Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe, initiated ART at least four months before the survey and were receiving ART at the time of the survey (according to self-report or ARV testing). We calculated odds ratios and incidence rate ratios for factors associated with NVL, VF, interrupted ART, and switching to second-line ART. RESULTS: We included 9200 adults receiving ART of whom 88.8% had VLS and 11.2% had NVL including 8.2% who experienced VF and 3.0% who interrupted ART. Younger age, male sex, less education, suboptimal adherence, receiving nevirapine, HIV non-disclosure, never having married and residing in Zimbabwe, Lesotho or Zambia were associated with higher odds of NVL. Among people with NVL, marriage, female sex, shorter ART duration, higher CD4 count and alcohol use were associated with lower odds for VF and higher odds for interrupted ART. Many people with VF (44.8%) had CD4 counts <200 cells/µL, but few (0.31% per year) switched to second-line ART. CONCLUSIONS: Countries are approaching global VLS targets for adults. Treatment support, in particular for younger adults, and people with higher CD4 counts, and switching of people to protease inhibitor- or integrase inhibitor-based regimens may further reduce NVL prevalence.

Survival and HIV-Free Survival Among Children Aged ≤3 Years - Eight Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2015-2017.

Although mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is preventable through antiretroviral treatment (ART) during pregnancy and postpartum, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimates that 160,000 new HIV infections occurred among children in 2018 (1). Child survival and HIV-free survival rates* are standard measures of progress toward eliminating MTCT† (2). Nationally representative Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA)§ survey data, pooled from eight sub-Saharan African countries¶ were used to calculate survival probability among children aged ≤3 years by maternal HIV status during pregnancy and HIV-free survival probability among children aged ≤3 years born to women with HIV infection, stratified by maternal ART** status during pregnancy. Survival probability was significantly lower among children born to women with HIV infection (94.7%) than among those born to women without HIV infection (97.6%). HIV-free survival probability of children born to women with HIV infection differed significantly by the timing of initiation of maternal ART: 93.0% among children whose mothers received ART before pregnancy, 87.8% among those whose mothers initiated ART during pregnancy, and 53.4% among children whose mothers did not receive ART during pregnancy. Focusing on prevention of HIV acquisition and, among women of reproductive age with HIV infection, on early diagnosis of HIV infection and ART initiation when applicable, especially before pregnancy, can improve child survival and HIV-free survival.

Pediatric HIV Treatment Gaps in 7 East and Southern African Countries: Examination of Modeled, Survey, and Routine Program Data.

BACKGROUND: Remarkable success in the prevention and treatment of pediatric HIV infection has been achieved in the past decade. Large differences remain between the estimated number of children living with HIV (CLHIV) and those identified through national HIV programs. We evaluated the number of CLHIV and those on treatment in Lesotho, Malawi, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. METHODS: We assessed the total number of CLHIV, CLHIV on antiretroviral treatment (ART), and national and regional ART coverage gaps using 3 data sources: (1) Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS model-based estimates and national program data used as input values in the models, (2) population-based HIV impact surveys (PHIA), and (3) program data from the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)-supported clinics. RESULTS: Across the 7 countries, HIV prevalence among children aged 0-14 years ranged from 0.4% (Uncertainty Bounds (UB) 0.2%-0.6%) to 2.8% (UB: 2.2%-3.4%) according to the PHIA surveys, resulting in estimates of 520,000 (UB: 460,000-580,000) CLHIV in 2016-2017 in the 7 countries. This compared with Spectrum estimates of pediatric HIV prevalence ranging from 0.5% (UB: 0.5%-0.6%) to 3.5% (UB: 3.0%-4.0%) representing 480,000 (UB: 390,000-550,000) CLHIV. CLHIV not on treatment according to the PEPFAR, PHIA, and Spectrum for the countries stood at 48% (UB: 25%-60%), 49% (UB: 37%-50%), and 38% (UB: 24%-47%), respectively. Of 78 regions examined across 7 countries, 33% of regions (PHIA data) or 41% of regions (PEPFAR data) had met the ART coverage target of 81%. CONCLUSIONS: There are substantial gaps in the coverage of HIV treatment in CLHIV in the 7 countries studied according to all sources. There is continued need to identify, engage, and treat infants and children. Important inconsistencies in estimates across the 3 sources warrant in-depth investigation.

Status of HIV Epidemic Control Among Adolescent Girls and Young Women Aged 15-24 Years - Seven African Countries, 2015-2017.

In 2016, an estimated 1.5 million females aged 15-24 years were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in Eastern and Southern Africa, where the prevalence of HIV infection among adolescent girls and young women (3.4%) is more than double that for males in the same age range (1.6%) (1). Progress was assessed toward the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 2020 targets for adolescent girls and young women in sub-Saharan Africa (90% of those with HIV infection aware of their status, 90% of HIV-infected persons aware of their status on antiretroviral treatment [ART], and 90% of those on treatment virally suppressed [HIV viral load <1,000 HIV RNA copies/mL]) (2) using data from recent Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) surveys in seven countries. The national prevalence of HIV infection in adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years, the percentage who were aware of their status, and among those persons who were aware, the percentage who had achieved viral suppression were calculated. The target for viral suppression among all persons with HIV infection is 73% (the product of 90% x 90% x 90%). Among all seven countries, the prevalence of HIV infection among adolescent girls and young women was 3.6%; among those in this group, 46.3% reported being aware of their HIV-positive status, and 45.0% were virally suppressed. Sustained efforts by national HIV and public health programs to diagnose HIV infection in adolescent girls and young women as early as possible to ensure rapid initiation of ART should help achieve epidemic control among adolescent girls and young women.

Association of Diabetes and Tuberculosis Disease among US-Bound Adult Refugees, 2009-2014.

Diabetes is associated with an increased risk for active tuberculosis (TB) disease. We conducted a case-control study and found a significant association between diabetes and TB disease among US-bound refugees. These findings underscore the value of collaborative management of both diseases.

High prevalence of tuberculosis infection in HIV-1 exposed Kenyan infants.

BACKGROUND: Infants born to HIV-1 infected mothers may have increased risk for tuberculosis (TB), but the prevalence of TB infection in this population is undefined. In contrast to tuberculin skin tests that are confounded by recent bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination, TB interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) do not cross-react with BCG and enable detection of TB infection in infancy. METHODS: In a nested observational cohort of HIV-1 infected Kenyan mothers and their infants, we conducted T-SPOT.TB assays on cryopreserved peripheral blood mononuclear cells from 6-month-old infants without prior active TB. Maternal and infant correlates of infant TB infection were assessed. RESULTS: One hundred and eight-two infants were tested with T-SPOT.TB. Of 128 infants with determinate T-SPOT.TB results, the prevalence of a positive T-SPOT.TB was 10.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 6.1-17.7%]. All infants were BCG-vaccinated and 7.0% were HIV-1 infected. Positive infant T-SPOT.TB was associated with maternal active TB (odds ratio: 15.5, 95% CI: 1.3-184; P = 0.04) and prolonged infant fever (>1 month) (odds ratio: 18.8, 95% CI: 1.6-223; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: We observed a high prevalence of TB infection in 6-month-old HIV-1 exposed infants. Improved TB detection and prevention are warranted in HIV-1 exposed infants at high risk for active TB disease.

Consistency of Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific interferon-gamma responses in HIV-1-infected women during pregnancy and postpartum.

BACKGROUND: We determined the consistency of positive interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) release assays (IGRAs) to detect latent TB infection (LTBI) over one-year postpartum in HIV-1-infected women. METHODS: Women with positive IGRAs during pregnancy had four 3-monthly postpartum IGRAs. Postpartum change in magnitude of IFN-γ response was determined using linear mixed models. RESULTS: Among 18 women with positive pregnancy IGRA, 15 (83%) had a subsequent positive IGRA; 9 (50%) were always positive, 3 (17%) were always negative, and 6 (33%) fluctuated between positive and negative IGRAs. Women with pregnancy IGRA IFN-γ>8 spot forming cells (SFCs)/well were more likely to have consistent postpartum IGRA response (odds ratio: 10.0; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.9-117.0). Change in IFN-γ response over postpartum was 10.2 SFCs/well (95% CI: -1.5-21.8 SFCs/well). CONCLUSION: Pregnancy positive IGRAs were often maintained postpartum with increased consistency in women with higher baseline responses. There were modest increases in magnitude of IGRA responses postpartum.

Latent tuberculosis detection by interferon γ release assay during pregnancy predicts active tuberculosis and mortality in human immunodeficiency virus type 1-infected women and their children.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the prognostic usefulness of interferon γ release assays (IGRAs) for active tuberculosis and mortality in Kenyan human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected women and their infants. METHODS: Prevalence and correlates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific T-SPOT.TB IGRA positivity were determined during pregnancy in a historical cohort of HIV-1-infected women. Hazard ratios, adjusted for baseline maternal CD4 cell count (aHR(CD4)), were calculated for associations between IGRA positivity and risk of active tuberculosis and mortality over 2-year postpartum follow-up among women and their infants. RESULTS: Of 333 women tested, 52 (15.6%) had indeterminate IGRA results. Of the remaining 281 women, 120 (42.7%) had positive IGRA results, which were associated with a 4.5-fold increased risk of active tuberculosis (aHR(CD4), 4.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-18.0; P = .030). For immunosuppressed women (CD4 cell count, <250 cells/µL), positive IGRA results were associated with increased risk of maternal mortality (aHR(CD4), 3.5; 95% CI, 1.02-12.1;), maternal active tuberculosis or mortality (aHR(CD4), 5.2; 95% CI, 1.7-15.6; P = .004), and infant active tuberculosis or mortality overall (aHR(CD4), 3.0; 95% CI, 1.0-8.9; P = .05) and among HIV-1-exposed uninfected infants (aHR(CD4), 7.3; 95% CI, 1.6-33.5; P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: Positive IGRA results for HIV-1-infected pregnant women were associated with postpartum active tuberculosis and mortality among mothers and their infants.