The future of clinical trials in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive lung disease with a poor prognosis and limited therapeutic options. A multitude of promising compounds are currently being investigated; however, the design and conductance of late-phase clinical trials in IPF has proven particularly challenging. RECENT FINDINGS: Despite promising phase 2 data, ziritaxestat, an autotaxin inhibitor, pentraxin-2, an endogenous protein that regulates wound healing and fibrosis, and pamrevlumab, a human monoclonal antibody against connective tissue growth factor, failed to show efficacy in phase 3 trials. Endpoint selection is critical for the design, execution, and success of clinical trials; recently, attention has been paid to the assessment of how patients feel, function, and survive with the aim of aligning scientific objectives and patient needs in IPF. External control arms are control patients that derive from historical randomized controlled trials, registries, or electronic health records. They are increasingly used to assess treatment efficacy in clinical trials owing to their potential to reduce study duration and cost and increase generalizability of findings. SUMMARY: Advances in study design, end point selection and statistical analysis, and innovative strategies for more efficient enrolment of study participants have the potential to increase the likelihood of success of late-phase clinical trials in IPF.

Potential of αvß6 and αvß1 integrin inhibition for treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

INTRODUCTION: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic progressive interstitial lung disease of unknown cause with a dismal prognosis. Nintedanib and Pirfenidone are approved worldwide for the treatment of IPF, but they only slow the rate of functional decline and disease progression. Therefore, there is an urgent need for more efficacious and better tolerated drugs. AREAS COVERED: αvß6 and αvß1 are two integrins overexpressed in fibrotic tissue, which play a critical role in the development of lung fibrosis. They act by converting transforming growth factor (TGF)-ß, one of the most important profibrotic cytokine, in its active form. Here, we summarize and critically discuss the potential of a dual αvß6/αvß1 integrin inhibitor for the treatment of IPF. EXPERT OPINION: Bexotegrast, a dual αvß6/αvß1 integrin inhibitor, has the potential to slow or even halt disease progression in IPF. Indeed, the strong pre-clinical rationale and promising early phase clinical trial data have raised expectations.

The fibroblast hormone endotrophin is a biomarker of mortality in chronic diseases.

Fibrosis, driven by fibroblast activities, is an important contributor to morbidity and mortality in most chronic diseases. Endotrophin, a signaling molecule derived from processing of type VI collagen by highly activated fibroblasts, is involved in fibrotic tissue remodeling. Circulating levels of endotrophin have been associated with an increased risk of mortality in multiple chronic diseases. We conducted a systematic literature review collecting evidence from original papers published between 2012 and January 2023 that reported associations between circulating endotrophin (PRO-C6) and mortality. Cohorts with data available to the study authors were included in an Individual Patient Data (IPD) meta-analysis that evaluated the association of PRO-C6 with mortality (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42023340215) after adjustment for age, sex and BMI, where available. In the IPD meta-analysis including sixteen cohorts of patients with different non-communicable chronic diseases (NCCDs) (N=15,205) the estimated summary hazard ratio for 3-years all-cause mortality was 2.10 (95% CI 1.75-2.52) for a 2-fold increase in PRO-C6, with some heterogeneity observed between the studies (I2=70%). This meta-analysis is the first study documenting that fibroblast activities, as quantified by circulating endotrophin, are independently associated with mortality across a broad range of NCCDs. This indicates that, irrespective of disease, interstitial tissue remodeling, and consequently fibroblast activities, has a central role in adverse clinical outcomes, and should be considered with urgency from drug developers as a target to treat.

Association between mosaic loss of chromosome Y and pulmonary fibrosis susceptibility and severity.

Background Pulmonary fibrosis (PF) is a rare lung disease with diverse pathogenesis and multiple interconnected underlying biological mechanisms. Mosaic loss of chromosome Y (mLOY) is one of the most common forms of acquired chromosome abnormality in men, which has been reported to be associated with increased risk of various chronic progressive diseases including fibrotic diseases. However, the exact role of mLOY in the development of PF remains elusive and to be elucidated. Methods: We adopted three complementary approaches to explore the role of mLOY in the pathogenesis of PF. We used copy number on chromosome Y to estimate mLOY comparing patients in PROFILE and gnomAD cohorts and between cases and control patients from the GE100KGP cohort. Correlation of mLOY with demographic and clinical variables was tested using patients from PROFILE cohort. Lung single-cell transcriptomic data were analysed to assess the cell types implicated in mLOY. We performed Mendelian randomisation to examine the causal relationship between mLOY, IPF, and telomere length. Results: The genetic analysis suggests that mLOY is found in PF from both case cohorts but when compared with an age matched population the effect is minimal (P = 0.0032). mLOY is related to age (P = 0.00021) and shorter telomere length (P = 0.0081) rather than PF severity or progression. Single-cell analysis indicates that mLOY appears to be found primarily in immune cells and appears to be related to presence and severity of fibrosis. Mendelian randomisation demonstrates that mLOY is not on the causal pathway for IPF, but partial evidence supports that telomere shortening is on the causal pathway for mLOY. Conclusion: Our study confirms the existence of mLOY in PF patients and suggests that mLOY is not a major driver of IPF. The combined evidence suggests a triangulation model where telomere shortening leads to both IPF and mLOY.

Interstitial Lung Disease: A Review.

Importance: Interstitial lung disease (ILD) consists of a group of pulmonary disorders characterized by inflammation and/or fibrosis of the lung parenchyma associated with progressive dyspnea that frequently results in end-stage respiratory failure. In the US, ILD affects approximately 650 000 people and causes approximately 25 000 to 30 000 deaths per year. Observations: The most common forms of ILD are idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), which accounts for approximately one-third of all cases of ILD, hypersensitivity pneumonitis, accounting for 15% of ILD cases, and connective tissue disease (CTD), accounting for 25% of ILD cases. ILD typically presents with dyspnea on exertion. Approximately 30% of patients with ILD report cough. Thoracic computed tomography is approximately 91% sensitive and 71% specific for diagnosing subtypes of ILDs such as IPF. Physiologic assessment provides important prognostic information. A 5% decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) over 12 months is associated with an approximately 2-fold increase in mortality compared with no change in FVC. Antifibrotic therapy with nintedanib or pirfenidone slows annual FVC decline by approximately 44% to 57% in individuals with IPF, scleroderma associated ILD, and in those with progressive pulmonary fibrosis of any cause. For connective tissue disease-associated ILD, immunomodulatory therapy, such as tocilizumab, rituximab, and mycophenolate mofetil, may slow decline or even improve FVC at 12-month follow-up. Structured exercise therapy reduces symptoms and improves 6-minute walk test distance in individuals with dyspnea. Oxygen reduces symptoms and improves quality of life in individuals with ILD who desaturate below 88% on a 6-minute walk test. Lung transplant may improve symptoms and resolve respiratory failure in patients with end-stage ILD. After lung transplant, patients with ILD have a median survival of 5.2 to 6.7 years compared with a median survival of less than 2 years in patients with advanced ILD who do not undergo lung transplant. Up to 85% of individuals with end-stage fibrotic ILD develop pulmonary hypertension. In these patients, treatment with inhaled treprostinil improves walking distance and respiratory symptoms. Conclusions and Relevance: Interstitial lung disease typically presents with dyspnea on exertion and can progress to respiratory failure. First-line therapy includes nintedanib or pirfenidone for IPF and mycophenolate mofetil for ILD due to connective tissue disease. Lung transplant should be considered for patients with advanced ILD. In patients with ILD, exercise training improves 6-minute walk test distance and quality of life.

Genetics and Genomics of Pulmonary Fibrosis: Charting the Molecular Landscape and Shaping Precision Medicine.

Recent genetic and genomic advancements have elucidated the complex etiology of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and other progressive fibrotic interstitial lung diseases (ILDs), emphasizing the contribution of heritable factors. This state-of-the-art review synthesizes evidence on significant genetic contributors to pulmonary fibrosis (PF), including rare genetic variants and common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The MUC5B promoter variant is unusual, a common SNP that markedly elevates the risk of early and established PF. We address the utility of genetic variation in enhancing understanding of disease pathogenesis, clinical phenotypes, improving disease definitions, and informing prognosis and treatment response. Critical research gaps are highlighted, particularly the underrepresentation of non-European ancestries in PF genetic studies and the exploration of PF phenotypes beyond usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP)/IPF. We discuss the role of telomere length, often critically short in PF, and its link to progression and mortality, underscoring the genetic complexity involving telomere biology genes (TERT, TERC) and others like SFTPC and MUC5B. Additionally, we address the potential of gene-by-environment interactions to modulate disease manifestation, advocating for precision medicine in PF. Insights from gene expression profiling studies and multi-omic analyses highlight the promise for understanding disease pathogenesis and offer new approaches to clinical care, therapeutic drug development, and biomarker discovery. Finally, we discuss the ethical, legal, and social implications of genomic research and therapies in PF, stressing the need for sound practices and informed clinical genetic discussions. Looking forward, we advocate for comprehensive genetic testing panels and polygenic risk scores to improve the management of PF and related ILDs across diverse populations.

[18F]FDG PET/CT Signal Correlates with Neoangiogenesis Markers in Patients with Fibrotic Interstitial Lung Disease Who Underwent Lung Biopsy: Implication for the Use of PET/CT in Diffuse Lung Diseases.

The use of [18F]FDG PET/CT as a biomarker in diffuse lung diseases is increasingly recognized. We investigated the correlation between [18F]FDG uptake with histologic markers on lung biopsy of patients with fibrotic interstitial lung disease (fILD). Methods: We recruited 18 patients with fILD awaiting lung biopsy for [18F]FDG PET/CT. We derived a target-to-background ratio (TBR) of maximum pulmonary uptake of [18F]FDG (SUVmax) divided by the lung background (SUVmin). Consecutive paraffin-embedded lung biopsy sections were immunostained for alveolar and interstitial macrophages (CD68), microvessel density (MVD) (CD31 and CD105/endoglin), and glucose transporter 1. MVD was expressed as vessel area percentage per high-power field (Va%/hpf). Differences in imaging and angiogenesis markers between histologic usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) and non-UIP were assessed using a nonparametric Mann-Whitney test. Correlation of imaging with angiogenesis markers was assessed using the nonparametric Spearman rank correlation. Univariate Kaplan-Meier survival analysis assessed the difference in the survival curves for each of the angiogenesis markers (separated by their respective optimal cutoff) using the log-rank test. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS. Results: In total, 18 patients were followed for an average of 41.36 mo (range, 5.69-132.46 mo; median, 30.07 mo). Only CD105 MVD showed a significantly positive correlation with [18F]FDG TBR (Spearman rank correlation, 0.556; P < 0.05, n = 13). There was no correlation between [18F]FDG uptake and macrophage expression of glucose transporter 1. CD105 and CD31 were higher for UIP than for non-UIP, with CD105 reaching statistical significance (P = 0.011). In all patients, MVD assessed with either CD105 or CD31 quantification on biopsy predicted overall survival. Patients with CD105 MVD of less than 12 Va%/hpf or CD31 MVD of less than 35 Va%/hpf had a significantly better prognosis (no deaths during follow-up in the case of CD105) than did patients with higher scores of CD105 MVD (median survival, 35 mo; P = 0.041, n = 13) or CD31 MVD (median survival, 28 mo; P = 0.014, n = 13). Conclusion: Previous work has used [18F]FDG uptake in PET/CT as a biomarker in fILD. Here, we highlight a correlation between angiogenesis and [18F]FDG TBR. We show that MVD is higher for UIP than for non-UIP and is associated with mortality in patients with fILD. These data set the scene to investigate the potential role of vasculature and angiogenesis in fibrosis.

Deep Learning-based Segmentation of CT Scans Predicts Disease Progression and Mortality in IPF.

RATIONALE: Despite evidence demonstrating a prognostic role for CT scans in IPF, image-based biomarkers are not routinely used in clinical practice or trials. OBJECTIVES: Develop automated imaging biomarkers using deep learning based segmentation of CT scans. METHODS: We developed segmentation processes for four anatomical biomarkers which were applied to a unique cohort of treatment-naive IPF patients enrolled in the PROFILE study and tested against a further UK cohort. The relationship between CT biomarkers, lung function, disease progression and mortality were assessed. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Data was analysed from 446 PROFILE patients. Median follow-up was 39.1 months (IQR 18.1-66.4) with cumulative incidence of death of 277 over 5 years (62.1%). Segmentation was successful on 97.8% of all scans, across multiple imaging vendors at slice thicknesses 0.5-5mm. Of 4 segmentations, lung volume showed strongest correlation with FVC (r=0.82, p<0.001). Lung, vascular and fibrosis volumes were consistently associated across cohorts with differential five-year survival, which persisted after adjustment for baseline GAP score. Lower lung volume (HR 0.98, CI 0.96-0.99, p=0.001), increased vascular volume (HR 1.30, CI 1.12-1.51, p=0.001) and increased fibrosis volume (HR 1.17, CI 1.12-1.22, p=<0.001) were associated with reduced two-year progression-free survival in the pooled PROFILE cohort. Longitudinally, decreasing lung volume (HR 3.41; 95% CI 1.36-8.54; p=0.009) and increasing fibrosis volume (HR 2.23; 95% CI 1.22-4.08; p=0.009) were associated with differential survival. CONCLUSIONS: Automated models can rapidly segment IPF CT scans, providing prognostic near and long-term information, which could be used in routine clinical practice or as key trial endpoints. This article is open access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Phase 2, Double-Blind, Placebo-controlled Trial of a c-Jun N-Terminal Kinase Inhibitor in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

Rationale: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a fatal and progressive disease with limited treatment options. Objectives: To assess the efficacy and safety of CC-90001, an oral inhibitor of c-Jun N-terminal kinase 1, in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Methods: NCT03142191 was a phase 2, randomized (1:1:1), double-blind, placebo-controlled study in which patients received CC-90001 (200 or 400 mg) or placebo once daily for 24 weeks. Background antifibrotic treatment (pirfenidone) was allowed. The primary endpoint was change in percentage of predicted forced vital capacity (ppFVC) from baseline to Week 24; secondary endpoints included safety. Measurements and Main Results: In total, 112 patients received ≥1 dose of study drug. The study was terminated early due to a strategic decision made by the sponsor. Ninety-one patients (81%) completed the study. The least-squares mean changes from baseline in ppFVC at Week 24 were -3.1% (placebo), -2.1% (200 mg), and -1.0% (400 mg); the differences compared with placebo were 1.1% (200 mg; 95% CI: -2.1, 4.3; P=.50) and 2.2% (400 mg; 95% CI: -1.1, 5.4; P=.19). Adverse event frequency was similar in patients in the combined CC-90001 arms versus placebo. The most common adverse events were nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, which were more frequent in patients in CC-90001 arms versus placebo. Fewer patients in the CC-90001 than in the placebo arm experienced cough and dyspnea. Conclusions: Treatment with CC-90001 over 24 weeks led to numerical improvements in ppFVC in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis compared to placebo. CC-90001 was generally well tolerated, consistent with previous studies. Clinical trial registration available at www.clinicaltrials.gov, ID: NCT03142191.

Machine Learning of Plasma Proteomics Classifies Diagnosis of Interstitial Lung Disease.

RATIONALE: Distinguishing connective tissue disease associated interstitial lung disease (CTD-ILD) from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) can be clinically challenging. OBJECTIVES: Identify proteins that separate and classify CTD-ILD from IPF patients. METHODS: Four registries with 1247 IPF and 352 CTD-ILD patients were included in analyses. Plasma samples were subjected to high-throughput proteomics assays. Protein features were prioritized using Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) to construct a proteomic classifier. Multiple machine learning models, including Support Vector Machine, LASSO regression, Random Forest (RF), and imbalanced-RF, were trained and tested in independent cohorts. The validated models were used to classify each case iteratively in external datasets. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS: A classifier with 37 proteins (PC37) was enriched in biological process of bronchiole development and smooth muscle proliferation, and immune responses. Four machine learning models used PC37 with sex and age score to generate continuous classification values. Receiver-operating-characteristic curve analyses of these scores demonstrated consistent Area-Under-Curve 0.85-0.90 in test cohort, and 0.94-0.96 in the single-sample dataset. Binary classification demonstrated 78.6%-80.4% sensitivity and 76%-84.4% specificity in test cohort, 93.5%-96.1% sensitivity and 69.5%-77.6% specificity in single-sample classification dataset. Composite analysis of all machine learning models confirmed 78.2% (194/248) accuracy in test cohort and 82.9% (208/251) in single-sample classification dataset. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple machine learning models trained with large cohort proteomic datasets consistently distinguished CTD-ILD from IPF. Identified proteins involved in immune pathways. We further developed a novel approach for single sample classification, which could facilitate honing the differential diagnosis of ILD in challenging cases and improve clinical decision-making.

Association study of human leukocyte antigen variants and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Introduction: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic interstitial pneumonia marked by progressive lung fibrosis and a poor prognosis. Recent studies have highlighted the potential role of infection in the pathogenesis of IPF, and a prior association of the HLA-DQB1 gene with idiopathic fibrotic interstitial pneumonia (including IPF) has been reported. Owing to the important role that the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region plays in the immune response, here we evaluated if HLA genetic variation was associated specifically with IPF risk. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis of associations of the HLA region with IPF risk in individuals of European ancestry from seven independent case-control studies of IPF (comprising 5159 cases and 27 459 controls, including a prior study of fibrotic interstitial pneumonia). Single nucleotide polymorphisms, classical HLA alleles and amino acids were analysed and signals meeting a region-wide association threshold of p<4.5×10-4 and a posterior probability of replication >90% were considered significant. We sought to replicate the previously reported HLA-DQB1 association in the subset of studies independent of the original report. Results: The meta-analysis of all seven studies identified four significant independent single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with IPF risk. However, none met the posterior probability for replication criterion. The HLA-DQB1 association was not replicated in the independent IPF studies. Conclusion: Variation in the HLA region was not consistently associated with risk in studies of IPF. However, this does not preclude the possibility that other genomic regions linked to the immune response may be involved in the aetiology of IPF.

Meaningful Endpoints for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) Clinical Trials: Emphasis on 'Feels, Functions, Survives'. Report of a Collaborative Discussion in a Symposium with Direct Engagement from Representatives of Patients, Investigators, the National Institutes of Health, a Patient Advocacy Organization, and a Regulatory Agency.

Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) carries significant mortality and unpredictable progression, with limited therapeutic options. Designing trials with patient-meaningful endpoints, enhancing the reliability and interpretability of results, and streamlining the regulatory approval process are of critical importance to advancing clinical care in IPF. Methods: A landmark in-person symposium in June 2023 assembled 43 participants from the US and internationally, including patients with IPF, investigators, and regulatory representatives, to discuss the immediate future of IPF clinical trial endpoints. Patient advocates were central to discussions, which evaluated endpoints according to regulatory standards and the FDA's 'feels, functions, survives' criteria. Results: Three themes emerged: 1) consensus on endpoints mirroring the lived experiences of patients with IPF; 2) consideration of replacing forced vital capacity (FVC) as the primary endpoint, potentially by composite endpoints that include 'feels, functions, survives' measures or FVC as components; 3) support for simplified, user-friendly patient-reported outcomes (PROs) as either components of primary composite endpoints or key secondary endpoints, supplemented by functional tests as secondary endpoints and novel biomarkers as supportive measures (FDA Guidance for Industry (Multiple Endpoints in Clinical Trials) available at: https://www.fda.gov/media/162416/download). Conclusions: This report, detailing the proceedings of this pivotal symposium, suggests a potential turning point in designing future IPF clinical trials more attuned to outcomes meaningful to patients, and documents the collective agreement across multidisciplinary stakeholders on the importance of anchoring IPF trial endpoints on real patient experiences-namely, how they feel, function, and survive. There is considerable optimism that clinical care in IPF will progress through trials focused on patient-centric insights, ultimately guiding transformative treatment strategies to enhance patients' quality of life and survival.

Estimating the effect of nintedanib on forced vital capacity in children and adolescents with fibrosing interstitial lung disease using a Bayesian dynamic borrowing approach.

BACKGROUND: The rarity of childhood interstitial lung disease (chILD) makes it challenging to conduct powered trials. In the InPedILD trial, among 39 children and adolescents with fibrosing ILD, there was a numerical benefit of nintedanib versus placebo on change in forced vital capacity (FVC) over 24 weeks (difference in mean change in FVC % predicted of 1.21 [95% confidence interval: -3.40, 5.81]). Nintedanib has shown a consistent effect on FVC across populations of adults with different diagnoses of fibrosing ILD. METHODS: In a Bayesian dynamic borrowing analysis, prespecified before data unblinding, we incorporated data on the effect of nintedanib in adults and the data from the InPedILD trial to estimate the effect of nintedanib on FVC in children and adolescents with fibrosing ILD. The data from adults were represented as a meta-analytic predictive (MAP) prior distribution with mean 1.69 (95% credible interval: 0.49, 3.08). The adult data were weighted according to expert judgment on their relevance to the efficacy of nintedanib in chILD, obtained in a formal elicitation exercise. RESULTS: Combined data from the MAP prior and InPedILD trial analyzed within the Bayesian framework resulted in a median difference between nintedanib and placebo in change in FVC % predicted at Week 24 of 1.63 (95% credible interval: -0.69, 3.40). The posterior probability for superiority of nintedanib versus placebo was 95.5%, reaching the predefined success criterion of at least 90%. CONCLUSION: These findings, together with the safety data from the InPedILD trial, support the use of nintedanib in children and adolescents with fibrosing ILDs.

Genome-wide SNP-sex interaction analysis of susceptibility to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic lung condition that is more prevalent in males than females. The reasons for this are not fully understood, with differing environmental exposures due to historically sex-biased occupations, or diagnostic bias, being possible explanations. To date, over 20 independent genetic variants have been identified to be associated with IPF susceptibility, but these have been discovered when combining males and females. Our aim was to test for the presence of sex-specific associations with IPF susceptibility and assess whether there is a need to consider sex-specific effects when evaluating genetic risk in clinical prediction models for IPF. Methods: We performed genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-by-sex interaction studies of IPF risk in six independent IPF case-control studies and combined them using inverse-variance weighted fixed effect meta-analysis. In total, 4,561 cases (1,280 females and 2,281 males) and 23,500 controls (8,360 females and 14,528 males) of European genetic ancestry were analysed. We used polygenic risk scores (PRS) to assess differences in genetic risk prediction between males and females. Findings: Three independent genetic association signals were identified. All showed a consistent direction of effect across all individual IPF studies and an opposite direction of effect in IPF susceptibility between females and males. None had been previously identified in IPF susceptibility genome-wide association studies (GWAS). The predictive accuracy of the PRSs were similar between males and females, regardless of whether using combined or sex-specific GWAS results. Interpretation: We prioritised three genetic variants whose effect on IPF risk may be modified by sex, however these require further study. We found no evidence that the predictive accuracy of common SNP-based PRSs varies significantly between males and females.