Estimating the impact of a police education program on hepatitis C virus transmission and disease burden among people who inject drugs in Tijuana, Mexico: A dynamic modeling analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Criminalization of drug use and punitive policing are key structural drivers of hepatitis C virus (HCV) risk among people who inject drugs (PWID). A police education program (Proyecto Escudo) delivering training on occupational safety together with drug law content was implemented between 2015 and 2016 in Tijuana, Mexico, to underpin drug law reform implementation. We used data from a longitudinal cohort of PWID in Tijuana to inform epidemic modeling and assess the long-term impact of Escudo on HCV transmission and burden among PWID in Tijuana. METHODS: We developed a dynamic, compartmental model of HCV transmission and incarceration among PWID and tracked liver disease progression among current and former PWID. The model was calibrated to data from Tijuana, Mexico, with 90% HCV seroprevalence. We used segmented regression analysis to estimate impact of Escudo on recent incarceration among an observational cohort of PWID. By simulating the observed incarceration trends, we estimated the potential impact of the implemented (2-year reduction in incarceration) and an extended (10-year reduction in incarceration) police education program over a 50-year follow-up (2016-2066) on HCV outcomes (incidence, cirrhosis, HCV-related deaths and disability adjusted life-years averted) compared with no intervention. RESULTS: Over the 2-year follow-up, Proyecto Escudo reduced HCV incidence among PWID from 21.5 per 100 person years (/100py) (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 15.3-29.7/100py) in 2016 to 21.1/100py (UI = 15.0-29.1/100py) in 2018. If continued for 10 years, Escudo could reduce HCV incidence to 20.0/100py (14.0-27.8/100py) by 2026 and avert 186 (32-389) new infections, 76 (UI = 12-160) cases of cirrhosis and 32 (5-73) deaths per 10 000 PWID compared with no intervention over a 50-year time horizon. CONCLUSIONS: In Tijuana, Mexico, implementation of a police education program delivering training on occupational safety and drug law content appears to have reduced hepatitis C virus incidence among people who inject drugs.

Modelling the contribution of incarceration and public health oriented drug law reform to HCV transmission and elimination among PWID in Tijuana, Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Incarceration is associated with increased risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs (PWID). Mexico's previous attempt in implementing a public health-oriented drug law reform resulted in minimal impact on incarceration among PWID. However, implementation of reforms alongside Mexico's HCV elimination program has the potential to reshape the HCV epidemic among PWID in the next decade. We use data from a cohort of PWID in Tijuana, Mexico, to inform epidemic modeling to assess the contribution of incarceration and fully implemented drug reform on HCV transmission and elimination among PWID. METHODS: We developed a dynamic, deterministic model of incarceration, HCV transmission and disease progression among PWID. The model was calibrated to data from Tijuana, Mexico, with 90% HCV seroprevalence among 10,000 PWID. We estimated the 10-year population attributable fraction (PAF) of incarceration to HCV incidence among PWID and simulated, from 2022, the potential impact of the following scenarios: 1) decriminalization (80% reduction in incarceration rates); 2) fully implemented drug law reform (decriminalization and diversion to opiate agonist therapy [OAT]); 3) fully implemented drug law reform with HCV treatment (direct-acting antivirals [DAA]). We also assessed the number DAA needed to reach the 80% incidence reduction target by 2030 under these scenarios. RESULTS: Projections suggest a PAF of incarceration to HCV incidence of 5.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]:0.6-11.9%) among PWID in Tijuana between 2022-2032. Fully implemented drug reforms could reduce HCV incidence rate by 10.6% (95%UI:3.1-19.2%) across 10 years and reduce the number of DAA required to achieve Mexico's HCV incidence reduction goal by 14.3% (95%UI:5.3-17.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Among PWID in Tijuana, Mexico, incarceration remains an important contributor to HCV transmission. Full implementation of public health-oriented drug law reform could play an important role in reducing HCV incidence and improve the feasibility of reaching the HCV incidence elimination target by 2030.

Hepatitis C elimination among people who inject drugs in Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In 2019, Mexico was one of the first countries in Latin America to commit resources to achieve hepatitis C elimination by 2030. One year after this commitment, the global COVID-19 pandemic diverted attention to address immediate health needs to combat the spread of the disease. As a result, efforts to implement hepatitis C prevention and management programs were indefinitely postponed. Furthermore, populations at high risk of contracting the hepatitis C virus (HCV) and who bear the greatest burden of HCV national epidemic, including people who inject drugs and people who live with human immunodeficiency virus infection, remain exposed to extreme health disparities, which have potentially been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, we discuss the potential impact the COVID-19 pandemic has had on HCV elimination efforts in Mexico and the urgent need to resume them, since without these efforts, HCV elimination goals are likely not be achieved in the country by 2030.

En 2019, México fue uno de los primeros países en Latinoamérica en comprometer recursos para eliminar la hepatitis C antes de 2030. Un año después de este compromiso, la pandemia mundial de COVID-19 desvió la atención hacia las necesidades inmediatas de salud para combatir la propagación de esta última. Como resultado, los esfuerzos para implementar programas de prevención y manejo de la hepatitis C se suspendieron indefinidamente. Asimismo, las poblaciones con alto riesgo de contraer el virus de la hepatitis C y que representan el mayor peso de la epidemia nacional, como las personas que se inyectan drogas y las personas que viven con infección por el virus de la inmunodeficia humana, permanecen expuestas a disparidades de salud extremas que potencialmente se han exacerbado durante la pandemia de COVID-19. En este artículo discutimos el impacto potencial que la pandemia de COVID-19 ha tenido sobre los esfuerzos de eliminación de la hepatitis C en México y la necesidad urgente de reanudarlos, ya que sin ellos los objetivos de eliminación no se alcanzarán en el país en 2030.

Establishing a framework towards monitoring HCV microelimination among men who have sex with men living with HIV in Germany: A modeling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Prior to direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), HCV incidence rose among men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV infection in Germany despite high hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment rates. We establish a HCV elimination modeling framework to evaluate whether existing treatment rates can achieve the World Health Organization (WHO) incidence target among MSM living with HIV in Germany. METHODS: To evaluate progress towards HCV elimination in Germany, we adapted a previously published HCV transmission model among MSM living with diagnosed HIV. We modelled HCV incidence and prevalence until 2030 (relative to 2015) under existing treatment and DAA scale-up and explored potential impacts of disruptions in treatment and behavioral risk reduction due to the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: Continuing current treatment rates will result in stable HCV incidence among MSM living with HIV in Germany between 2015-2030. The WHO HCV incidence target is achievable under DAA scale-up to 100% treatment combined with treatment of those previously diagnosed and untreated (at a rate of 15%/year) and would result in greater reductions with early treatment (3 vs 6 months) reducing incidence from 4.0/100person-years to 0.8/100person-years by 2030. A 12-month disruption to HCV treatment (20% reduction) and risk behaviors (25%,50%,75% reduction) during the COVID-19 pandemic would result in a 15% relative increase in total HCV incidence in 2030 compared to that expected under the status quo. CONCLUSIONS: HCV elimination among MSM living with HIV in Germany requires further DAA scale-up among those newly diagnosed combined with efforts to treat those previously diagnosed but untreated. Prospective monitoring will establish whether Germany is on track for HCV microelimination.

Eliminación de la hepatitis C en usuarios de drogas inyectadas en México durante la pandemia de COVID-19 / Hepatitis C elimination among people who inject drugs in Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic

Resumen En 2019, México fue uno de los primeros países en Latinoamérica en comprometer recursos para eliminar la hepatitis C antes de 2030. Un año después de este compromiso, la pandemia mundial de COVID-19 desvió la atención hacia las necesidades inmediatas de salud para combatir la propagación de esta última. Como resultado, los esfuerzos para implementar programas de prevención y manejo de la hepatitis C se suspendieron indefinidamente. Asimismo, las poblaciones con alto riesgo de contraer el virus de la hepatitis C y que representan el mayor peso de la epidemia nacional, como las personas que se inyectan drogas y las personas que viven con infección por el virus de la inmunodeficia humana, permanecen expuestas a disparidades de salud extremas que potencialmente se han exacerbado durante la pandemia de COVID-19. En este artículo discutimos el impacto potencial que la pandemia de COVID-19 ha tenido sobre los esfuerzos de eliminación de la hepatitis C en México y la necesidad urgente de reanudarlos, ya que sin ellos los objetivos de eliminación no se alcanzarán en el país en 2030.

Abstract In 2019, Mexico was one of the first countries in Latin America to commit resources to achieve hepatitis C elimination by 2030. One year after this commitment, the global COVID-19 pandemic diverted attention to address immediate health needs to combat the spread of the disease. As a result, efforts to implement hepatitis C prevention and management programs were indefinitely postponed. Furthermore, populations at high risk of contracting the hepatitis C virus (HCV) and who bear the greatest burden of HCV national epidemic, including people who inject drugs and people who live with human immunodeficiency virus infection, remain exposed to extreme health disparities, which have potentially been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, we discuss the potential impact the COVID-19 pandemic has had on HCV elimination efforts in Mexico and the urgent need to resume them, since without these efforts, HCV elimination goals are likely not be achieved in the country by 2030.

Methods and indicators to validate country reductions in incidence of hepatitis C virus infection to elimination levels set by WHO.

One of the main goals of the 2016 Global Health Sector Strategy on viral hepatitis is the elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV) as a public health problem by 2030, defined as an 80% reduction in incidence and 65% reduction in mortality relative to 2015. Although monitoring HCV incidence is key to validating HCV elimination, use of the gold-standard method, which involves prospective HCV retesting of people at risk, can be prohibitively resource-intensive. Additionally, few countries collected quality data in 2015 to enable an 80% decrease by 2030 to be calculated. Here, we first review different methods of monitoring HCV incidence and discuss their resource implications and applicability to various populations. Second, using mathematical models developed for various global settings, we assess whether trends in HCV chronic prevalence or HCV antibody prevalence or scale-up levels for HCV testing, treatment, and preventative interventions can be used as reliable alternative indicators to validate the HCV incidence target. Third, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of an absolute HCV incidence target and suggest a suitable threshold. Finally, we propose three options that countries can use to validate the HCV incidence target, depending on the available surveillance infrastructure.

Cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination strategies among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Tijuana, Mexico.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In Latin America, Mexico was first to launch a hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination strategy, where people who inject drugs (PWID) are a main risk group for transmission. In Tijuana, HCV seroprevalence among PWID is > 90%, with minimal harm reduction (HR). We evaluated cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve the incidence elimination target among PWID in Tijuana. METHODS: Modeling study using a dynamic, cost-effectiveness model of HCV transmission and progression among active and former PWID in Tijuana, to assess the cost-effectiveness of incidence elimination strategies from a health-care provider perspective. The model incorporated PWID transitions between HR stages (no HR, only opioid agonist therapy, only high coverage needle-syringe programs, both). Four strategies that could achieve the incidence target (80% reduction by 2030) were compared with the status quo (no intervention). The strategies incorporated the number of direct-acting anti-viral (DAA) treatments required with: (1) no HR scale-up, (2) HR scale-up from 2019 to 20% coverage among PWID, (3) HR to 40% coverage and (4) HR to 50% coverage. Costs (2019 US$) and health outcomes [disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)] were discounted 3% per year. Mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER, $/DALY averted) were compared with one-time per capita gross domestic product (GDP) ($9698 in 2019) and purchasing power parity-adjusted per capita GDP ($4842-13 557) willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds. RESULTS: DAAs alone were the least costly elimination strategy [$173 million, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 126-238 million], but accrued fewer health benefits compared with strategies with HR. DAAs + 50% HR coverage among PWID averted the most DALYs but cost $265 million, 95% CI = 210-335 million). The optimal strategy was DAAs + 50% HR (ICER $6743/DALY averted compared to DAAs only) under the one-time per-capita GDP WTP ($9698). CONCLUSIONS: A combination of high-coverage harm reduction and hepatitis C virus treatment is the optimal cost-effective strategy to achieve the HCV incidence elimination goal in Mexico.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of a real-world HCV treatment program among HIV-infected individuals in Myanmar.

INTRODUCTION: Over half of those hepatitis C virus (HCV)/HIV coinfected live in low-income and middle-income countries, and many remain undiagnosed or untreated. In 2016, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) established a direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment programme for people HCV/HIV coinfected in Myanmar. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the real-world cost and cost-effectiveness of this programme, and potential cost-effectiveness if implemented by the Ministry of Health (MoH). METHODS: Costs (patient-level microcosting) and treatment outcomes were collected from the MSF prospective cohort study in Dawei, Myanmar. A Markov model was used to assess cost-effectiveness of the programme compared with no HCV treatment from a health provider perspective. Estimated lifetime and healthcare costs (in 2017 US$) and health outcomes (in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)) were simulated to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), compared with a willingness-to-pay threshold of per capita Gross Domestic Product in Myanmar ($1250). We evaluated cost-effectiveness with updated quality-assured generic DAA prices and potential cost-effectiveness of a proposed simplified treatment protocol with updated DAA prices if implemented by the MoH. RESULTS: From November 2016 to October 2017, 122 with HIV/HCV-coinfected patients were treated with DAAs (46% with cirrhosis), 96% (n=117) achieved sustained virological response. Mean treatment costs were $1229 (without cirrhosis) and $1971 (with cirrhosis), with DAA drugs being the largest contributor to cost. Compared with no treatment, the program was cost-effective (ICER $634/DALY averted); more so with updated prices for quality-assured generic DAAs (ICER $488/DALY averted). A simplified treatment protocol delivered by the MoH could be cost-effective if associated with similar outcomes (ICER $316/DALY averted). CONCLUSIONS: Using MSF programme data, the DAA treatment programme for HCV among HIV-coinfected individuals is cost-effective in Myanmar, and even more so with updated DAA prices. A simplified treatment protocol could enhance cost-effectiveness if further rollout demonstrates it is not associated with worse treatment outcomes.

Is hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination achievable among people who inject drugs in Tijuana, Mexico? A modeling analysis.

BACKGROUND: In 2019, Mexico became the first Latin American country committed to hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination, but the amount of intervention scale-up required is unclear. In Tijuana, HCV among people who inject drugs (PWID) is high; yet there is minimal and intermittent harm reduction, and involuntary exposure to compulsory abstinence programs (CAP) occurs which is associated with increased HCV risk. We determined what combination intervention scale-up can achieve HCV elimination among current and former PWID in Tijuana. METHODS: We constructed a dynamic, deterministic model of HCV transmission, disease progression, and harm reduction among current and former PWID parameterized to Tijuana (~10,000 current PWID, 90% HCV seropositive, minimal opiate agonist therapy [OAT] or high coverage needle/syringe programs [HCNSP]). We evaluated the number of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments needed from 2019 to achieve elimination targets (80% incidence reduction, 65% mortality reduction by 2030) with: (a) DAAs alone, (b) DAAs plus scale-up of OAT+HCNSP (up to 50% coverage of OAT and HCNSP separately, producing 25% of PWID receiving both), (c) DAAs plus CAP scale-up to 50%. Scenarios examined the number of DAAs required if prioritized to current PWID or provided regardless of current injection status, and impact of harm reduction interruptions. RESULTS: Modeling suggests among ~30,000 current and former PWID in Tijuana, 16,160 (95%CI: 12,770-21,610) have chronic HCV. DAA scale-up can achieve the incidence target, requiring 770 treatments/year (95%CI: 640-970) if prioritized to current PWID. 40% fewer DAAs are required with OAT+HCNSP scale-up to 50% among PWID, whereas more are required with involuntary CAP scale-up. Both targets can only be achieved through treating both current and former PWID (1,710 treatments/year), and impact is reduced with harm reduction interruptions. CONCLUSIONS: Elimination targets are achievable in Tijuana through scale-up of harm reduction and DAA therapy, whereas involuntary CAP and harm reduction interruptions hamper elimination.