Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. DESIGN: Two stage time series analysis. SETTING: 645 locations across 34 countries or regions. POPULATION: Daily mortality data, comprising a total of 109 954 744 all cause, 31 164 161 cardiovascular, and 11 817 278 respiratory deaths from 1980 to 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Association between daily mortality and rainfall events with return periods (the expected average time between occurrences of an extreme event of a certain magnitude) of one year, two years, and five years, with a 14 day lag period. A continuous relative intensity index was used to generate intensity-response curves to estimate mortality risks at a global scale. RESULTS: During the study period, a total of 50 913 rainfall events with a one year return period, 8362 events with a two year return period, and 3301 events with a five year return period were identified. A day of extreme rainfall with a five year return period was significantly associated with increased daily all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, with cumulative relative risks across 0-14 lag days of 1.08 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.11), 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08), and 1.29 (1.19 to 1.39), respectively. Rainfall events with a two year return period were associated with respiratory mortality only, whereas no significant associations were found for events with a one year return period. Non-linear analysis revealed protective effects (relative risk <1) with moderate-heavy rainfall events, shifting to adverse effects (relative risk >1) with extreme intensities. Additionally, mortality risks from extreme rainfall events appeared to be modified by climate type, baseline variability in rainfall, and vegetation coverage, whereas the moderating effects of population density and income level were not significant. Locations with lower variability of baseline rainfall or scarce vegetation coverage showed higher risks. CONCLUSION: Daily rainfall intensity is associated with varying health effects, with extreme events linked to an increasing relative risk for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. The observed associations varied with local climate and urban infrastructure.

Temperature-mortality associations by age and cause: a multi-country multi-city study.

Background: Heterogeneity in temperature-mortality relationships across locations may partly result from differences in the demographic structure of populations and their cause-specific vulnerabilities. Here we conduct the largest epidemiological study to date on the association between ambient temperature and mortality by age and cause using data from 532 cities in 33 countries. Methods: We collected daily temperature and mortality data from each country. Mortality data was provided as daily death counts within age groups from all, cardiovascular, respiratory, or noncardiorespiratory causes. We first fit quasi-Poisson regression models to estimate location-specific associations for each age-by-cause group. For each cause, we then pooled location-specific results in a dose-response multivariate meta-regression model that enabled us to estimate overall temperature-mortality curves at any age. The age analysis was limited to adults. Results: We observed high temperature effects on mortality from both cardiovascular and respiratory causes compared to noncardiorespiratory causes, with the highest cold-related risks from cardiovascular causes and the highest heat-related risks from respiratory causes. Risks generally increased with age, a pattern most consistent for cold and for nonrespiratory causes. For every cause group, risks at both temperature extremes were strongest at the oldest age (age 85 years). Excess mortality fractions were highest for cold at the oldest ages. Conclusions: There is a differential pattern of risk associated with heat and cold by cause and age; cardiorespiratory causes show stronger effects than noncardiorespiratory causes, and older adults have higher risks than younger adults.

Decreasing trend in thyroid cancer incidence: a study from central Italy (2007-2019).

PURPOSE: Due to overdiagnosis, the incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) has increased in high-income countries, including Italy. Efforts have been made to address this issue since the mid-2010s, but more information is needed about how TC incidence has changed. We aim to examine the trend in TC incidence in the Lazio Region (central Italy) and assess the impact of the 2014 Italian Consensus for the Classification and Reporting of Thyroid Cytology (ICCRTC) to identify potential changes in TC diagnosis. METHODS: To identify TC cases, we conducted a population-based study (period 2007-2019) using the data from the Lazio Region Cancer Registry (5.8 million residents). We calculated the annual age-standardized incidence rates of TC for both sexes and analyzed the impact of ICCRTC on monthly incidence rates using segmented linear regression applied to interrupted time-series (ITS). RESULTS: Throughout the 13 years, there was a significant decline in TC annual incidence rates, more pronounced in females. Our results are consistent with reports from outside Europe (United States and South Korea). Following ICCRTC implementation in 2014, a step-change reduction in both sexes was revealed. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates a significant decrease in the incidence of TC, particularly among females. The ITS analysis highlights the possible role of ICCRTC in reducing overdiagnosis. As the Lazio Region reflects the Italian population in terms of various demographic, health, and lifestyle indicators, our findings can be applicable at the national level.

Association of air pollution with incidence of end-stage kidney disease in two large European cohorts.

End-stage kidney disease (ESKD) poses a high burden on patients and health systems. While numerous studies indicate an association between air pollution and chronic kidney disease, studies on ESKD are rare. We investigated the association of long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC) and ozone (O3) with ESKD incidence in two large population-based European cohorts. We followed individuals in the Austrian Vorarlberg Health Monitoring and Promotion Program (VHM&PP) and the Italian Rome Longitudinal Study (RoLS) using dialysis and kidney transplant registries. Long-term exposure to pollutants was estimated at the home address using Europe-wide land use regression models at 100x100m scale. Hazard ratios (HR) were determined from Cox-proportional hazard models adjusted for individual and neighbourhood level confounders. We observed 501 events among 136,823 individuals in VHM&PP (mean age 42.1 years; crude incidence rate (IR) 0.14 per 1000 person-years) and 3231 events among 1,939,461 individuals in RoLS (mean age 52.4 years; IR 0.22 per 1000 person-years). In VHM&PP, there was no evidence of an association between PM2.5 or O3 and ESKD. There were elevated HRs but with large confidence intervals for BC (HR 1.17 [95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.98, 1.39] for 0.5*10-5/m), and for NO2 (HR 1.14 [95%CI: 0.96, 1.35] for 10 µg/m3). In RoLS, ESKD was associated with PM2.5 (HR 1.37 [95 % CI: 1.06, 1.76] for an increase of 5 µg/m3), while there was no evidence of association with BC, NO2, or O3 exposure. Our study suggests an association of air pollution with ESKD incidence, which differed between the two cohorts and may possibly be influenced by respective air pollution mixtures.

Investigating socioeconomic disparities in lung cancer diagnosis, treatment and mortality: an Italian cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is one of the most lethal cancers worldwide and patient clinical outcomes seem influenced by their socioeconomic position (SEP). Since little has been investigated on this topic in the Italian context, our aim was to investigate the role of SEP in the care pathway of lung cancer patients in terms of diagnosis, treatment and mortality. METHODS: This observational retrospective cohort study included patients discharged in the Lazio Region with a lung cancer diagnosis between 2014 and 2017. In the main analysis, educational level was used as SEP measure. Multivariate models, adjusted for demographic and clinical variables, were applied to evaluate the association between SEP and study outcomes, stratified for metastatic (M) and non-metastatic (NM) cancer. We defined a diagnosis as 'delayed' when patients received their initial cancer diagnosis after an emergency department admission. Access to advanced lung cancer treatments (high-cost, novel and innovative treatments) and mortality were investigated within the 24-month period post-diagnosis. Moreover, two additional indicators of SEP were examined in the sensitivity analysis: one focusing on area deprivation and the other on income-based exemption. RESULTS: A total of 13,251 patients were identified (37.3% with metastasis). The majority were males (> 60%) and over half were older than 70 years. The distribution of SEP levels among patients was as follow: 31% low, 29% medium-low, 32% medium-high and 7% high. As SEP increased, the risks of receiving a delayed diagnosis ((high vs low: M: OR = 0.29 (0.23-0.38), NM: OR = 0.20 (0.16-0.25)) and of mortality ((high vs low M: OR = 0.77 (0.68-0.88) and NM: 0.61 (0.54-0.69)) decreased. Access to advanced lung cancer treatments increased in accordance with SEP only in the M cohort (high vs low: M: OR = 1.57 (1.18-2.09)). The primary findings were corroborated by sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlighted the need of public health preventive and educational programs in Italy, a country where the care pathway of lung cancer patients, especially in terms of diagnosis and mortality, appears to be negatively affected by SEP level.

Corrigendum: Time-Trends in Air Pollution Impact on Health in Italy, 1990-2019: An Analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/ijph.2023.1605959.].

Cause specific mortality in an Italian pool of asbestos workers cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Asbestos is a known human carcinogen and is causally associated with malignant mesothelioma, lung, larynx and ovarian cancers. METHODS: Cancer risk was studied among a pool of formerly asbestos-exposed workers in Italy. Fifty-two Italian asbestos cohorts (asbestos-cement, rolling-stock, shipbuilding, and other) were pooled and their mortality follow-up was updated to 2018. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were computed for major causes of death considering duration of exposure and time since first exposure (TSFE), using reference rates by region, age and calendar period. RESULTS: The study included 63,502 subjects (57,156 men and 6346 women): 40% who were alive, 58% who died (cause known for 92%), and 2% lost to follow-up. Mortality was increased for all causes (SMR: men = 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.05; women = 1.15, 95% CI 1.11-1.18), all malignancies (SMR: men = 1.21, 95% CI 1.18-1.23; women = 1.29, 95% CI 1.22-1.37), pleural and peritoneal malignancies (men: SMR = 10.46, 95% CI 9.86-11.09 and 4.29, 95% CI 3.66-5.00; women: SMR = 27.13, 95% CI 23.29-31.42 and 7.51, 95% CI 5.52-9.98), lung (SMR: men = 1.28, 95% CI 1.24-1.32; women = 1.26, 95% CI 1.02-1.53), and ovarian cancer (SMR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.08-1.84). Pleural cancer mortality increased during the first 40 years of TSFE (latency), reaching a plateau thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: Analyses by time-dependent variables showed that the risk for pleural neoplasms increased with latency and no longer increases at long TSFE, consistent with with asbestos clearance from the lungs. Peritoneal neoplasm risk increased over all observation time.

Association between air pollution and emergency room admission for eye diseases in Rome, Italy: A time-series analysis.

Eye diseases impose a significant burden on health services due to high case numbers. However, exposure to outdoor air pollution is seldom mentioned as potential harmful factor. We conducted a time-series analysis in Rome, Italy, to estimate the association between daily mean concentration of NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 and daily number of emergency room (ER) admissions for a selected cluster of eye diseases from 2006 to 2016. We used Poisson regression adjusted for time trend, population decrease during summer vacations and holidays, day of week, apparent temperature (hot and cold) and daily concentration of nine pollen species. We observed 581,868 ER admissions during the study period. 44.74% of cases were observed in subjects with less than 20 years, 19.50% in 51-65 age category and 13.4% among children (0-14 years). No differences between sexes were recorded. Mean values of pollutant concentrations were 54.75, 31.01 and 18.14 µg/m3 for NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 respectively. The air temperature ranged from -1 °C to 32.5 °C, with a mean value of 16 °C (SD = 6.88). The apparent temperature spaced from -3.58 °C to 34.08 °C (mean = 15.61 °C, SD = 8.5). The highest percent risk increases for 10 µg/m3 increases of the three pollutants were observed at lag0-1 day (1.3%, 0.63-1.98 for PM2.5; 1.03%, 0.56-1.51 for PM10 and 0.6%, 0.13-1.07 for NO2). Risk increased significantly also at lag0 and lag0-5 day for each pollutant. Secondary analyses showed higher effects in the elderly compared to younger subjects. No differences emerged between sexes. The dose response analysis suggested of possible effects on ER admission risk also at low-level concentrations of PM2.5. A strong confounding effect of pollen was not detected. RESULTS: of this study are coherent with previous analyses. Speculation can be done about the biological mechanisms that link air pollution to eye damage.

Two- and three-dimensional indicators of green and grey space exposure and psychiatric conditions and medicine use: A longitudinal study in a large population-based Italian cohort.

BACKGROUND: Evidence available on the associations between urban greenness and mental health is mainly based on cross-sectional studies and has relied on 2D indicators of greenness. This longitudinal study aimed at investigating the association between 2D and 3D indicators of green and grey spaces and incident mental health-related outcomes in a large population-based cohort. METHODS: Our study used data from 593,894 Italian adults (≥30 years) from the Rome Longitudinal Study. Mental health outcomes were defined using either drug prescriptions (antidepressants, antipsychotics, lithium and other mood stabilisers, and anxiolytics, hypnotics and sedatives), or hospitalisation records (for schizophrenia spectrum disorder, depression, anxiety, stress-related and somatoform, or substance use disorders). We obtained 2D and 3D indicators of green and grey exposures including Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), green volume, grey volume, number of trees, and Normalized Difference Green-Grey Volume Index around participants' homes. Cox proportional hazards regression models were developed to estimate the association of green and grey space exposure and psychiatric conditions and medicine use, adjusted for relevant covariates. RESULTS: We found beneficial associations of NDVI and the number of trees with antipsychotic and lithium and other mood stabiliser drugs. We also observed detrimental associations between grey volume and lithium and other mood stabilisers and anxiolytic, hypnotic and sedative drugs. Finally, we found a protective association of the NDGG with lithium and other mood stabilisers (HR: 0.977; 95% CI: 0.965-0.990) and anxiolytic, hypnotic and sedative drugs (HR: 0.851; 95% CI: 0.762-0.950). The associations for hospitalisation for psychiatric conditions were less consistent and generally not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggested that higher greenness areas around residential addresses are associated with reduced use of drugs for psychiatric conditions, while the opposite is true for higher grey space exposure. The study highlights the importance of accurately characterising green and grey spaces, using novel exposure indicators.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and incidence of mental disorders. A large longitudinal cohort study of adults within an urban area.

BACKGROUND: Recent epidemiological evidence suggests associations between air pollution exposure and major depressive disorders, but the literature is inconsistent for other mental illnesses. We investigated the associations of several air pollutants and road traffic noise with the incidence of different categories of mental disorders in a large population-based cohort. METHODS: We enrolled 1,739,277 individuals 30 + years from the 2011 census in Rome, Italy, and followed them up until 2019. In detail, we analyzed 1,733,331 participants (mean age 56.43 +/- 15.85 years; 54.96 % female) with complete information on covariates of interest. We excluded subjects with prevalent mental disorders at baseline to evaluate the incidence (first hospitalization or co-pay exemption) of schizophrenia spectrum disorders, bipolar, anxiety, personality, or substance use disorders. In addition, we studied subjects with first prescriptions of antipsychotics, antidepressants, and mood stabilizers. Annual average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), Black Carbon (BC), ultrafine particles (UFP), and road traffic noise were assigned to baseline residential addresses. We applied Cox regression models adjusted for individual and area-level covariates. RESULTS: Each interquartile range (1.13 µg/m3) increase in PM2.5 was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.070 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.017, 1.127) for schizophrenia spectrum disorder, 1.135 (CI: 1.086, 1.186) for depression, 1.097 (CI: 1.030, 1.168) for anxiety disorders. Positive associations were also detected for BC and UFP, and with the three categories of drug prescriptions. Bipolar, personality, and substance use disorders did not show clear associations. The effects were highest in the age group 30-64 years, except for depression. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution, especially fine and ultrafine particles, was associated with increased risks of schizophrenia spectrum disorder, depression, and anxiety disorders. The association of the pollutants with the prescriptions of specific drugs increases the credibility of the results.

Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. METHODS: We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 µm (PM10), PM ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) from 620 cities in 36 countries in the period 1995-2020. We restricted the analysis to the six consecutive warmest months in each city. City-specific data were analysed with over-dispersed Poisson regression models, followed by a multilevel random-effects meta-analysis. The joint association between air temperature and air pollutants was modelled with product terms between non-linear functions for air temperature and linear functions for air pollutants. RESULTS: We analyzed 22,630,598 deaths. An increase in mean temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile of city-specific distributions was associated with an average 8.9 % (95 % confidence interval: 7.1 %, 10.7 %) mortality increment, ranging between 5.3 % (3.8 %, 6.9 %) and 12.8 % (8.7 %, 17.0 %), when daily PM10 was equal to 10 or 90 µg/m3, respectively. Corresponding estimates when daily O3 concentrations were 40 or 160 µg/m3 were 2.9 % (1.1 %, 4.7 %) and 12.5 % (6.9 %, 18.5 %), respectively. Similarly, a 10 µg/m3 increment in PM10 was associated with a 0.54 % (0.10 %, 0.98 %) and 1.21 % (0.69 %, 1.72 %) increase in mortality when daily air temperature was set to the 1st and 99th city-specific percentiles, respectively. Corresponding mortality estimate for O3 across these temperature percentiles were 0.00 % (-0.44 %, 0.44 %) and 0.53 % (0.38 %, 0.68 %). Similar effect modification results, although slightly weaker, were found for PM2.5 and NO2. CONCLUSIONS: Suggestive evidence of effect modification between air temperature and air pollutants on mortality during the warm period was found in a global dataset of 620 cities.

Occupational heat stress, heat-related effects and the related social and economic loss: a scoping literature review.

Introduction: While there is consistent evidence on the effects of heat on workers' health and safety, the evidence on the resulting social and economic impacts is still limited. A scoping literature review was carried out to update the knowledge about social and economic impacts related to workplace heat exposure. Methods: The literature search was conducted in two bibliographic databases (Web of Science and PubMed), to select publications from 2010 to April 2022. Results: A total of 89 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis (32 field studies, 8 studies estimating healthcare-related costs, and 49 economic studies). Overall, consistent evidence of the socioeconomic impacts of heat exposure in the workplace emerges. Actual productivity losses at the global level are nearly 10% and are expected to increase up to 30-40% under the worst climate change scenario by the end of the century. Vulnerable regions are mainly low-latitude and low- and middle-income countries with a greater proportion of outdoor workers but include also areas from developed countries such as southern Europe. The most affected sectors are agriculture and construction. There is limited evidence regarding the role of cooling measures and changes in the work/rest schedule in mitigating heat-related productivity loss. Conclusion: The available evidence highlights the need for strengthening prevention efforts to enhance workers' awareness and resilience toward occupational heat exposure, particularly in low- and middle-income countries but also in some areas of developed countries where an increase in frequency and intensity of heat waves is expected under future climate change scenarios.