ABSTRACT
The polio eradication programme in Nigeria has been successful in reducing incidence to just six confirmed cases in 2014 and zero to date in 2015, but prediction and management of future outbreaks remains a concern. A Poisson mixed effects model was used to describe poliovirus spread between January 2001 and November 2013, incorporating the strength of connectivity between districts (local government areas, LGAs) as estimated by three models of human mobility: simple distance, gravity and radiation models. Potential explanatory variables associated with the case numbers in each LGA were investigated and the model fit was tested by simulation. Spatial connectivity, the number of non-immune children under five years old, and season were associated with the incidence of poliomyelitis in an LGA (all P < 0.001). The best-fitting spatial model was the radiation model, outperforming the simple distance and gravity models (likelihood ratio test P < 0.05), under which the number of people estimated to move from an infected LGA to an uninfected LGA was strongly associated with the incidence of poliomyelitis in that LGA. We inferred transmission networks between LGAs based on this model and found these to be highly local, largely restricted to neighbouring LGAs (e.g. 67.7% of secondary spread from Kano was expected to occur within 10 km). The remaining secondary spread occurred along routes of high population movement. Poliovirus transmission in Nigeria is predominantly localised, occurring between spatially contiguous areas. Outbreak response should be guided by knowledge of high-probability pathways to ensure vulnerable children are protected.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The completion of poliomyelitis eradication is a global emergency for public health. In 2012, more than 50% of the world's cases occurred in Nigeria following an unanticipated surge in incidence. We aimed to quantitatively analyse the key factors sustaining transmission of poliomyelitis in Nigeria and to calculate clinical efficacy estimates for the oral poliovirus vaccines (OPV) currently in use. METHODS: We used acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance data from Nigeria collected between January, 2001, and December, 2012, to estimate the clinical efficacies of all four OPVs in use and combined this with vaccination coverage to estimate the effect of the introduction of monovalent and bivalent OPV on vaccine-induced serotype-specific population immunity. Vaccine efficacy was determined using a case-control study with CIs based on bootstrap resampling. Vaccine efficacy was also estimated separately for north and south Nigeria, by age of the children, and by year. Detailed 60-day follow-up data were collected from children with confirmed poliomyelitis and were used to assess correlates of vaccine status. We also quantitatively assessed the epidemiology of poliomyelitis and programme performance and considered the reasons for the high vaccine refusal rate along with risk factors for a given local government area reporting a case. FINDINGS: Against serotype 1, both monovalent OPV (median 32.1%, 95% CI 26.1-38.1) and bivalent OPV (29.5%, 20.1-38.4) had higher clinical efficacy than trivalent OPV (19.4%, 16.1-22.8). Corresponding data for serotype 3 were 43.2% (23.1-61.1) and 23.8% (5.3-44.9) compared with 18.0% (14.1-22.1). Combined with increases in coverage, this factor has boosted population immunity in children younger than age 36 months to a record high (64-69% against serotypes 1 and 3). Vaccine efficacy in northern states was estimated to be significantly lower than in southern states (p≤0.05). The proportion of cases refusing vaccination decreased from 37-72% in 2008 to 21-51% in 2012 for routine and supplementary immunisation, and most caregivers cited ignorance of either vaccine importance or availability as the main reason for missing routine vaccinations (32.1% and 29.6% of cases, respectively). Multiple regression analyses highlighted associations between the age of the mother, availability of OPV at health facilities, and the primary source of health information and the probability of receiving OPV (all p<0.05). INTERPRETATION: Although high refusal rates, low OPV campaign awareness, and heterogeneous population immunity continued to support poliomyelitis transmission in Nigeria at the end of 2012, overall population immunity had improved due to new OPV formulations and improvements in programme delivery. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Vaccine Modeling Initiative, Royal Society.
