Penalized Regression Methods With Modified Cross-Validation and Bootstrap Tuning Produce Better Prediction Models.

Risk prediction models fitted using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) are often overfitted resulting in predictions that are too extreme and a calibration slope (CS) less than 1. Penalized methods, such as Ridge and Lasso, have been suggested as a solution to this problem as they tend to shrink regression coefficients toward zero, resulting in predictions closer to the average. The amount of shrinkage is regulated by a tuning parameter, λ , $\lambda ,$ commonly selected via cross-validation ("standard tuning"). Though penalized methods have been found to improve calibration on average, they often over-shrink and exhibit large variability in the selected λ $\lambda $ and hence the CS. This is a problem, particularly for small sample sizes, but also when using sample sizes recommended to control overfitting. We consider whether these problems are partly due to selecting λ $\lambda $ using cross-validation with "training" datasets of reduced size compared to the original development sample, resulting in an over-estimation of λ $\lambda $ and, hence, excessive shrinkage. We propose a modified cross-validation tuning method ("modified tuning"), which estimates λ $\lambda $ from a pseudo-development dataset obtained via bootstrapping from the original dataset, albeit of larger size, such that the resulting cross-validation training datasets are of the same size as the original dataset. Modified tuning can be easily implemented in standard software and is closely related to bootstrap selection of the tuning parameter ("bootstrap tuning"). We evaluated modified and bootstrap tuning for Ridge and Lasso in simulated and real data using recommended sample sizes, and sizes slightly lower and higher. They substantially improved the selection of λ $\lambda $ , resulting in improved CS compared to the standard tuning method. They also improved predictions compared to MLE.

Adult-onset hearing loss and incident cognitive impairment and dementia - A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: We comprehensively summarized the cohort evidence to date on adult-onset hearing loss as risk factor for incident cognitive impairment and dementia, and examined the evidence for dose-response, risk for various dementia subtypes, and other moderators. Previous meta-analyses were less comprehensive. METHODS: We included cohort studies with participants without dementia and with hearing assessments at baseline, minimum 2 years follow-up and incident cognitive outcomes. We used random-effect models and subgroup and meta-regression on moderator analyses. RESULTS: We identified fifty studies (N=1,548,754). Hearing loss (yes/no) was associated with incident dementia risk (HR=1.35 [95% CI = 1.26 - 1.45), mild cognitive impairment (MCI HR=1.29 [95% CI = 1.11 - 1.50]), cognitive decline not specified as MCI or dementia (HR=1.29 [95% CI = 1.17 - 1.42]), and Alzheimer's disease dementia (ADD, HR=1.56 [95% CI = 1.30 - 1.87]), but not with vascular dementia (HR, 1.30 [95% CI = 0.83 - 2.05]). Each 10-decibel worsening of hearing was associated with a 16% increase in dementia risk (95% CI = 1.07 - 1.27). The effect of hearing loss did not vary across potential moderators. CONCLUSIONS: Cohort studies consistently support that adult-onset hearing loss increases the risk of incident cognitive decline, dementia, MCI, and ADD.

Nephron Sparing Treatment (NEST) for Small Renal Masses: A Feasibility Cohort-embedded Randomised Controlled Trial Comparing Percutaneous Cryoablation and Robot-assisted Partial Nephrectomy.

There is a paucity of high-level evidence on small renal mass (SRM) management, as previous classical randomised controlled trials (RCTs) failed to meet accrual targets. Our objective was to assess the feasibility of recruitment to a cohort-embedded RCT comparing cryoablation (CRA) to robotic partial nephrectomy (RPN). A total of 200 participants were recruited to the cohort, of whom 50 were enrolled in the RCT. In the CRA intervention arm, 84% consented (95% confidence interval [CI] 64-95%) and 76% (95% CI 55-91%) received CRA; 100% (95% CI 86-100%) of the control arm underwent RPN. The retention rate was 90% (95% CI 79-96%) at 6 mo. In the RPN group 2/25 (8%) were converted intra-operative to radical nephrectomy. Postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo grade 1-2) occurred in 12% of the CRA group and 29% of the RPN group. The median length of hospital stay was shorter for CRA (1 vs 2 d; p = 0.019). At 6 mo, the mean change in renal function was -5.0 ml/min/1.73 m2 after CRA and -5.8 ml/min/1.73 m2 after RPN. This study demonstrates the feasibility of a cohort-embedded RCT comparing CRA and RPN. These data can be used to inform multicentre trials on SRM management. PATIENT SUMMARY: We assessed whether patients with a small kidney tumour would consent to a trial comparing two different treatments: cryoablation (passing small needles through the skin to freeze the kidney tumour) and surgery to remove part of the kidney. We found that most patients agreed and a full trial would therefore be feasible.

The Role of Multiparametric MRI and MRI-targeted Biopsy in the Diagnosis of Radiorecurrent Prostate Cancer: An Analysis from the FORECAST Trial.

BACKGROUND: The role of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for detecting recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate MRI and MRI-targeted biopsies for detecting intraprostatic cancer recurrence and planning for salvage focal ablation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: FOcal RECurrent Assessment and Salvage Treatment (FORECAST; NCT01883128) was a prospective cohort diagnostic study that recruited 181 patients with suspected radiorecurrence at six UK centres (2014 to 2018); 144 were included here. INTERVENTION: All patients underwent MRI with 5 mm transperineal template mapping biopsies; 84 had additional MRI-targeted biopsies. MRI scans with Likert scores of 3 to 5 were deemed suspicious. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: First, the diagnostic accuracy of MRI was calculated. Second, the pathological characteristics of MRI-detected and MRI-undetected tumours were compared using the Wilcoxon rank sum test and chi-square test for trend. Third, four biopsy strategies involving an MRI-targeted biopsy alone and with systematic biopsies of one to two other quadrants were studied. Fisher's exact test was used to compare MRI-targeted biopsy alone with the best other strategy for the number of patients with missed cancer and the number of patients with cancer harbouring additional tumours in unsampled quadrants. Analyses focused primarily on detecting cancer of any grade or length. Last, eligibility for focal therapy was evaluated for men with localised (≤T3bN0M0) radiorecurrent disease. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Of 144 patients, 111 (77%) had cancer detected on biopsy. MRI sensitivity and specificity at the patient level were 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.92 to 0.99) and 0.21 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.35), respectively. At the prostate quadrant level, 258/576 (45%) quadrants had cancer detected on biopsy. Sensitivity and specificity were 0.66 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.73) and 0.54 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.62), respectively. At the quadrant level, compared with MRI-undetected tumours, MRI-detected tumours had longer maximum cancer core length (median difference 3 mm [7 vs 4 mm]; 95% CI 1 to 4 mm, p < 0.001) and a higher grade group (p = 0.002). Of the 84 men who also underwent an MRI-targeted biopsy, 73 (87%) had recurrent cancer diagnosed. Performing an MRI-targeted biopsy alone missed cancer in 5/73 patients (7%; 95% CI 3 to 15%); with additional systematic sampling of the other ipsilateral and contralateral posterior quadrants (strategy 4), 2/73 patients (3%; 95% CI 0 to 10%) would have had cancer missed (difference 4%; 95% CI -3 to 11%, p = 0.4). If an MRI-targeted biopsy alone was performed, 43/73 (59%; 95% CI 47 to 69%) patients with cancer would have harboured undetected additional tumours in unsampled quadrants. This reduced but only to 7/73 patients (10%; 95% CI 4 to 19%) with strategy 4 (difference 49%; 95% CI 36 to 62%, p < 0.0001). Of 73 patients, 43 (59%; 95% CI 47 to 69%) had localised radiorecurrent cancer suitable for a form of focal ablation. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy, MRI and MRI-targeted biopsy, with or without perilesional sampling, will diagnose cancer in the majority where present. MRI-undetected cancers, defined as Likert scores of 1 to 2, were found to be smaller and of lower grade. However, if salvage focal ablation is planned, an MRI-targeted biopsy alone is insufficient for prostate mapping; approximately three of five patients with recurrent cancer found on an MRI-targeted biopsy alone harboured further tumours in unsampled quadrants. Systematic sampling of the whole gland should be considered in addition to an MRI-targeted biopsy to capture both MRI-detected and MRI-undetected disease. PATIENT SUMMARY: After radiotherapy, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is accurate for detecting recurrent prostate cancer, with missed cancer being smaller and of lower grade. Targeting a biopsy to suspicious areas on MRI results in a diagnosis of cancer in most patients. However, for every five men who have recurrent cancer, this targeted approach would miss cancers elsewhere in the prostate in three of these men. If further focal treatment of the prostate is planned, random biopsies covering the whole prostate in addition to targeted biopsies should be considered so that tumours are not missed.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy sudden cardiac death risk algorithms for implantable cardioverter defibrillator decision-making.

AIMS: To conduct a contemporary cost-effectiveness analysis examining the use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) for primary prevention in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). METHODS: A discrete-time Markov model was used to determine the cost-effectiveness of different ICD decision-making rules for implantation. Several scenarios were investigated including the reference scenario of implantation rates according to observed real world practice. A 12-year time horizon with an annual cycle length was used. Transition probabilities used in the model were obtained using Bayesian analysis. The study has been reported according to the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist. RESULTS: Using a 5-year SCD risk threshold of 6% was cheaper than current practice and has marginally better total quality adjusted life years (QALYs). This is the most cost-effective of the options considered, with an incremental cost effectiveness ratio of £834 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses highlighted that this decision is largely driven by what health related quality of life (HRQL) is attributed to ICD patients and time horizon. CONCLUSION: We present a timely new perspective on HCM ICD cost-effectiveness, using methods reflecting real-world practice. While we have shown that a 6% 5-year SCD risk cut-off provides the best cohort stratification to aid ICD decision-making, this will also be influenced by the particular values of costs and HRQL for subgroups or at a local level. The process of explicitly demonstrating the main factors which drive conclusions from such an analysis will help to inform shared decision-making in this complex area for all stakeholders concerned.

External validation of a risk model predicting failure of salvage focal ablation for prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To externally validate a published model predicting failure within 2 years after salvage focal ablation in men with localised radiorecurrent prostate cancer using a prospective, UK multicentre dataset. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with biopsy-confirmed ≤T3bN0M0 cancer after previous external beam radiotherapy or brachytherapy were included from the FOcal RECurrent Assessment and Salvage Treatment (FORECAST) trial (NCT01883128; 2014-2018; six centres), and from the high-intensity focussed ultrasound (HIFU) Evaluation and Assessment of Treatment (HEAT) and International Cryotherapy Evaluation (ICE) UK-based registries (2006-2022; nine centres). Eligible patients underwent either salvage focal HIFU or cryotherapy, with the choice based predominantly on anatomical factors. Per the original multivariable Cox regression model, the predicted outcome was a composite failure outcome. Model performance was assessed at 2 years post-salvage with discrimination (concordance index [C-index]), calibration (calibration curve and slope), and decision curve analysis. For the latter, two clinically-reasonable risk threshold ranges of 0.14-0.52 and 0.26-0.36 were considered, corresponding to previously published pooled 2-year recurrence-free survival rates for salvage local treatments. RESULTS: A total of 168 patients were included, of whom 84/168 (50%) experienced the primary outcome in all follow-ups, and 72/168 (43%) within 2 years. The C-index was 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.58-0.71). On graphical inspection, there was close agreement between predicted and observed failure. The calibration slope was 1.01. In decision curve analysis, there was incremental net benefit vs a 'treat all' strategy at risk thresholds of ≥0.23. The net benefit was therefore higher across the majority of the 0.14-0.52 risk threshold range, and all of the 0.26-0.36 range. CONCLUSION: In external validation using prospective, multicentre data, this model demonstrated modest discrimination but good calibration and clinical utility for predicting failure of salvage focal ablation within 2 years. This model could be reasonably used to improve selection of appropriate treatment candidates for salvage focal ablation, and its use should be considered when discussing salvage options with patients. Further validation in larger, international cohorts with longer follow-up is recommended.

Outlier identification and monitoring of institutional or clinician performance: an overview of statistical methods and application to national audit data.

BACKGROUND: Institutions or clinicians (units) are often compared according to a performance indicator such as in-hospital mortality. Several approaches have been proposed for the detection of outlying units, whose performance deviates from the overall performance. METHODS: We provide an overview of three approaches commonly used to monitor institutional performances for outlier detection. These are the common-mean model, the 'Normal-Poisson' random effects model and the 'Logistic' random effects model. For the latter we also propose a visualisation technique. The common-mean model assumes that the underlying true performance of all units is equal and that any observed variation between units is due to chance. Even after applying case-mix adjustment, this assumption is often violated due to overdispersion and a post-hoc correction may need to be applied. The random effects models relax this assumption and explicitly allow the true performance to differ between units, thus offering a more flexible approach. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each approach and illustrate their application using audit data from England and Wales on Adult Cardiac Surgery (ACS) and Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI). RESULTS: In general, the overdispersion-corrected common-mean model and the random effects approaches produced similar p-values for the detection of outliers. For the ACS dataset (41 hospitals) three outliers were identified in total but only one was identified by all methods above. For the PCI dataset (88 hospitals), seven outliers were identified in total but only two were identified by all methods. The common-mean model uncorrected for overdispersion produced several more outliers. The reason for observing similar p-values for all three approaches could be attributed to the fact that the between-hospital variance was relatively small in both datasets, resulting only in a mild violation of the common-mean assumption; in this situation, the overdispersion correction worked well. CONCLUSION: If the common-mean assumption is likely to hold, all three methods are appropriate to use for outlier detection and their results should be similar. Random effect methods may be the preferred approach when the common-mean assumption is likely to be violated.

Health-Related Quality of Life in Adults With Classical Infratentorial Superficial Siderosis: A Cross-sectional Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Infratentorial superficial siderosis (iSS) is a rare but disabling neurological condition characterised by progressive hearing loss, balance and mobility problems. The functional decline in these neurological domains with iSS progression is likely to adversely impact health-related quality of life (HRQoL). We studied HRQoL of adults with iSS using two common generic HRQoL measures (Health Utilities Index Mark III (HUI3) and EuroQoL EQ5D (5 Level) to determine the most impacted domains and evaluate the association between HRQoL scores and disease duration. METHODS: This observational study was an anonymous online survey. Following institutional Research Ethics Committee approval, we contacted dedicated international organisations, charities and patient-groups identified through online searches, social media and collaborative networks, to distribute the study information and study link, inviting their members diagnosed with iSS to participate. Participation required access to a digital device connected to the internet, confirmation of eligibility (aged ≥18 years and previously diagnosed with iSS) and informed consent to participate in the survey, which included study-specific questions (demographics, iSS, hearing) and HRQoL questionnaires. Survey responses were captured by the Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap) survey software and analysed using the SPSS statistical package. Linear regression analysis was performed to investigate the association between HRQoL scores and disease duration. RESULTS: Of fifty participants,60% were male; the median (interquartile range, IQR) age was 60 (15) years. The median (IQR) multi-attribute scores for HUI3 and EQ5D were 0.36 (0.53) and 0.64 (0.33), respectively. The most frequently affected domains (moderate or worse category) were hearing (64%), and pain (48%) for HUI3, and mobility (54%) and pain (50%) for EQ5D. There was a weak association between disease duration and multi-attribute scores for HUI3 (R=0.353; adjusted R2=0.096; b=-0.008; p=0.047) but not EQ5D. DISCUSSION: Our findings demonstrate low HRQoL scores which capture low functional status in several domains typically affected in iSS, suggesting that iSS has a major adverse impact on quality of life in multiple functional domains. Measures of HRQoL in iSS should be included in clinical and research settings, including treatment trials.

Importance of genotype for risk stratification in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy using the 2019 ARVC risk calculator.

AIMS: To study the impact of genotype on the performance of the 2019 risk model for arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC). METHODS AND RESULTS: The study cohort comprised 554 patients with a definite diagnosis of ARVC and no history of sustained ventricular arrhythmia (VA). During a median follow-up of 6.0 (3.1,12.5) years, 100 patients (18%) experienced the primary VA outcome (sustained ventricular tachycardia, appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator intervention, aborted sudden cardiac arrest, or sudden cardiac death) corresponding to an annual event rate of 2.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.9-3.3]. Risk estimates for VA using the 2019 ARVC risk model showed reasonable discriminative ability but with overestimation of risk. The ARVC risk model was compared in four gene groups: PKP2 (n = 118, 21%); desmoplakin (DSP) (n = 79, 14%); other desmosomal (n = 59, 11%); and gene elusive (n = 160, 29%). Discrimination and calibration were highest for PKP2 and lowest for the gene-elusive group. Univariable analyses revealed the variable performance of individual clinical risk markers in the different gene groups, e.g. right ventricular dimensions and systolic function are significant risk markers in PKP2 but not in DSP patients and the opposite is true for left ventricular systolic function. CONCLUSION: The 2019 ARVC risk model performs reasonably well in gene-positive ARVC (particularly for PKP2) but is more limited in gene-elusive patients. Genotype should be included in future risk models for ARVC.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Targeted Biopsies Compared to Transperineal Mapping Biopsies Before Focal Ablation in Localised and Metastatic Recurrent Prostate Cancer After Radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy occurs in one in five patients. The efficacy of prostate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in recurrent cancer has not been established. Furthermore, high-quality data on new minimally invasive salvage focal ablative treatments are needed. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the role of prostate MRI in detection of prostate cancer recurring after radiotherapy and the role of salvage focal ablation in treating recurrent disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The FORECAST trial was both a paired-cohort diagnostic study evaluating prostate multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) and MRI-targeted biopsies in the detection of recurrent cancer and a cohort study evaluating focal ablation at six UK centres. A total of 181 patients were recruited, with 155 included in the MRI analysis and 93 in the focal ablation analysis. INTERVENTION: Patients underwent choline positron emission tomography/computed tomography and a bone scan, followed by prostate mpMRI and MRI-targeted and transperineal template-mapping (TTPM) biopsies. MRI was reported blind to other tests. Those eligible underwent subsequent focal ablation. An amendment in December 2014 permitted focal ablation in patients with metastases. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Primary outcomes were the sensitivity of MRI and MRI-targeted biopsies for cancer detection, and urinary incontinence after focal ablation. A key secondary outcome was progression-free survival (PFS). RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Staging whole-body imaging revealed localised cancer in 128 patients (71%), with involvement of pelvic nodes only in 13 (7%) and metastases in 38 (21%). The sensitivity of MRI-targeted biopsy was 92% (95% confidence interval [CI] 83-97%). The specificity and positive and negative predictive values were 75% (95% CI 45-92%), 94% (95% CI 86-98%), and 65% (95% CI 38-86%), respectively. Four cancer (6%) were missed by TTPM biopsy and six (8%) were missed by MRI-targeted biopsy. The overall MRI sensitivity for detection of any cancer was 94% (95% CI 88-98%). The specificity and positive and negative predictive values were 18% (95% CI 7-35%), 80% (95% CI 73-87%), and 46% (95% CI 19-75%), respectively. Among 93 patients undergoing focal ablation, urinary incontinence occurred in 15 (16%) and five (5%) had a grade ≥3 adverse event, with no rectal injuries. Median follow-up was 27 mo (interquartile range 18-36); overall PFS was 66% (interquartile range 54-75%) at 24 mo. CONCLUSIONS: Patients should undergo prostate MRI with both systematic and targeted biopsies to optimise cancer detection. Focal ablation for areas of intraprostatic recurrence preserves continence in the majority, with good early cancer control. PATIENT SUMMARY: We investigated the role of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of the prostate and MRI-targeted biopsies in outcomes after cancer-targeted high-intensity ultrasound or cryotherapy in patients with recurrent cancer after radiotherapy. Our findings show that these patients should undergo prostate MRI with both systematic and targeted biopsies and then ablative treatment focused on areas of recurrent cancer to preserve their quality of life. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT01883128.

Multiparametric ultrasound versus multiparametric MRI to diagnose prostate cancer (CADMUS): a prospective, multicentre, paired-cohort, confirmatory study.

BACKGROUND: Multiparametric MRI of the prostate followed by targeted biopsy is recommended for patients at risk of prostate cancer. However, multiparametric ultrasound is more readily available than multiparametric MRI. Data from paired-cohort validation studies and randomised, controlled trials support the use of multiparametric MRI, whereas the evidence for individual ultrasound methods and multiparametric ultrasound is only derived from case series. We aimed to establish the overall agreement between multiparametric ultrasound and multiparametric MRI to diagnose clinically significant prostate cancer. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, multicentre, paired-cohort, confirmatory study in seven hospitals in the UK. Patients at risk of prostate cancer, aged 18 years or older, with an elevated prostate-specific antigen concentration or abnormal findings on digital rectal examination underwent both multiparametric ultrasound and multiparametric MRI. Multiparametric ultrasound consisted of B-mode, colour Doppler, real-time elastography, and contrast-enhanced ultrasound. Multiparametric MRI included high-resolution T2-weighted images, diffusion-weighted imaging (dedicated high B 1400 s/mm2 or 2000 s/mm2 and apparent diffusion coefficient map), and dynamic contrast-enhanced axial T1-weighted images. Patients with positive findings on multiparametric ultrasound or multiparametric MRI underwent targeted biopsies but were masked to their test results. If both tests yielded positive findings, the order of targeting at biopsy was randomly assigned (1:1) using stratified (according to centre only) block randomisation with randomly varying block sizes. The co-primary endpoints were the proportion of positive lesions on, and agreement between, multiparametric MRI and multiparametric ultrasound in identifying suspicious lesions (Likert score of ≥3), and detection of clinically significant cancer (defined as a Gleason score of ≥4 + 3 in any area or a maximum cancer core length of ≥6 mm of any grade [PROMIS definition 1]) in those patients who underwent a biopsy. Adverse events were defined according to Good Clinical Practice and trial regulatory guidelines. The trial is registered on ISRCTN, 38541912, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02712684, with recruitment and follow-up completed. FINDINGS: Between March 15, 2016, and Nov 7, 2019, 370 eligible patients were enrolled; 306 patients completed both multiparametric ultrasound and multiparametric MRI and 257 underwent a prostate biopsy. Multiparametric ultrasound was positive in 272 (89% [95% CI 85-92]) of 306 patients and multiparametric MRI was positive in 238 patients (78% [73-82]; difference 11·1% [95% CI 5·1-17·1]). Positive test agreement was 73·2% (95% CI 67·9-78·1; κ=0·06 [95% CI -0·56 to 0·17]). Any cancer was detected in 133 (52% [95% CI 45·5-58]) of 257 patients, with 83 (32% [26-38]) of 257 being clinically significant by PROMIS definition 1. Each test alone would result in multiparametric ultrasound detecting PROMIS definition 1 cancer in 66 (26% [95% CI 21-32]) of 257 patients who had biopsies and multiparametric MRI detecting it in 77 (30% [24-36]; difference -4·3% [95% CI -8·3% to -0·3]). Combining both tests detected 83 (32% [95% CI 27-38]) of 257 clinically significant cancers as per PROMIS definition 1; of these 83 cancers, six (7% [95% CI 3-15]) were detected exclusively with multiparametric ultrasound, and 17 (20% [12-31]) were exclusively detected by multiparametric MRI (agreement 91·1% [95% CI 86·9-94·2]; κ=0·78 [95% CI 0·69-0·86]). No serious adverse events were related to trial activity. INTERPRETATION: Multiparametric ultrasound detected 4·3% fewer clinically significant prostate cancers than multiparametric MRI, but it would lead to 11·1% more patients being referred for a biopsy. Multiparametric ultrasound could be an alternative to multiparametric MRI as a first test for patients at risk of prostate cancer, particularly if multiparametric MRI cannot be carried out. Both imaging tests missed clinically significant cancers detected by the other, so the use of both would increase the detection of clinically significant prostate cancers compared with using each test alone. FUNDING: The Jon Moulton Charity Trust, Prostate Cancer UK, and UCLH Charity and Barts Charity.

A novel cardiovascular magnetic resonance risk score for predicting mortality following surgical aortic valve replacement.

The increasing prevalence of patients with aortic stenosis worldwide highlights a clinical need for improved and accurate prediction of clinical outcomes following surgery. We investigated patient demographic and cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) characteristics to formulate a dedicated risk score estimating long-term survival following surgery. We recruited consecutive patients undergoing CMR with gadolinium administration prior to surgical aortic valve replacement from 2003 to 2016 in two UK centres. The outcome was overall mortality. A total of 250 patients were included (68 ± 12 years, male 185 (60%), with pre-operative mean aortic valve area 0.93 ± 0.32cm2, LVEF 62 ± 17%) and followed for 6.0 ± 3.3 years. Sixty-one deaths occurred, with 10-year mortality of 23.6%. Multivariable analysis showed that increasing age (HR 1.04, P = 0.005), use of antiplatelet therapy (HR 0.54, P = 0.027), presence of infarction or midwall late gadolinium enhancement (HR 1.52 and HR 2.14 respectively, combined P = 0.12), higher indexed left ventricular stroke volume (HR 0.98, P = 0.043) and higher left atrial ejection fraction (HR 0.98, P = 0.083) associated with mortality and developed a risk score with good discrimination. This is the first dedicated risk prediction score for patients with aortic stenosis undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement providing an individualised estimate for overall mortality. This model can help clinicians individualising medical and surgical care.Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00930735 and ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01755936.

Risk prediction in multicentre studies when there is confounding by cluster or informative cluster size.

BACKGROUND: Clustered data arise in research when patients are clustered within larger units. Generalised Estimating Equations (GEE) and Generalised Linear Models (GLMM) can be used to provide marginal and cluster-specific inference and predictions, respectively. METHODS: Confounding by Cluster (CBC) and Informative cluster size (ICS) are two complications that may arise when modelling clustered data. CBC can arise when the distribution of a predictor variable (termed 'exposure'), varies between clusters causing confounding of the exposure-outcome relationship. ICS means that the cluster size conditional on covariates is not independent of the outcome. In both situations, standard GEE and GLMM may provide biased or misleading inference, and modifications have been proposed. However, both CBC and ICS are routinely overlooked in the context of risk prediction, and their impact on the predictive ability of the models has been little explored. We study the effect of CBC and ICS on the predictive ability of risk models for binary outcomes when GEE and GLMM are used. We examine whether two simple approaches to handle CBC and ICS, which involve adjusting for the cluster mean of the exposure and the cluster size, respectively, can improve the accuracy of predictions. RESULTS: Both CBC and ICS can be viewed as violations of the assumptions in the standard GLMM; the random effects are correlated with exposure for CBC and cluster size for ICS. Based on these principles, we simulated data subject to CBC/ICS. The simulation studies suggested that the predictive ability of models derived from using standard GLMM and GEE ignoring CBC/ICS was affected. Marginal predictions were found to be mis-calibrated. Adjusting for the cluster-mean of the exposure or the cluster size improved calibration, discrimination and the overall predictive accuracy of marginal predictions, by explaining part of the between cluster variability. The presence of CBC/ICS did not affect the accuracy of conditional predictions. We illustrate these concepts using real data from a multicentre study with potential CBC. CONCLUSION: Ignoring CBC and ICS when developing prediction models for clustered data can affect the accuracy of marginal predictions. Adjusting for the cluster mean of the exposure or the cluster size can improve the predictive accuracy of marginal predictions.

Association of Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction Among Carriers of Truncating Variants in Filamin C With Frequent Ventricular Arrhythmia and End-stage Heart Failure.

Importance: Truncating variants in the gene encoding filamin C (FLNCtv) are associated with arrhythmogenic and dilated cardiomyopathies with a reportedly high risk of ventricular arrhythmia. Objective: To determine the frequency of and risk factors associated with adverse events among FLNCtv carriers compared with individuals carrying TTN truncating variants (TTNtv). Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study recruited 167 consecutive FLNCtv carriers and a control cohort of 244 patients with TTNtv matched for left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) from 19 European cardiomyopathy referral units between 1990 and 2018. Data analyses were conducted between June and October, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was a composite of malignant ventricular arrhythmia (MVA) (sudden cardiac death, aborted sudden cardiac death, appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator shock, and sustained ventricular tachycardia) and end-stage heart failure (heart transplant or mortality associated with end-stage heart failure). The secondary end point comprised MVA events only. Results: In total, 167 patients with FLNCtv were studied (55 probands [33%]; 89 men [53%]; mean [SD] age at baseline evaluation, 43 [18] years). For a median follow-up of 20 months (interquartile range, 7-60 months), 29 patients (17.4%) reached the primary end point (19 patients with MVA and 10 patients with end-stage heart failure). Eight (44%) arrhythmic events occurred among individuals with baseline mild to moderate left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) (LVEF = 36%-49%). Univariable risk factors associated with the primary end point included proband status, LVEF decrement per 10%, ventricular ectopy (≥500 in 24 hours) and myocardial fibrosis detected on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. The LVEF decrement (hazard ratio [HR] per 10%, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.30-2.57]; P < .001) and proband status (HR, 3.18 [95% CI, 1.12-9.04]; P = .03) remained independent risk factors on multivariable analysis (excluding myocardial fibrosis and ventricular ectopy owing to case censoring). There was no difference in freedom from MVA between FLNCtv carriers with mild to moderate or severe (LVEF ≤35%) LVSD (HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 0.45-3.72]; P = .64). Carriers of FLNCtv with impaired LVEF at baseline evaluation (n = 69) had reduced freedom from MVA compared with 244 TTNtv carriers with similar baseline LVEF (for mild to moderate LVSD: HR, 16.41 [95% CI, 3.45-78.11]; P < .001; for severe LVSD: HR, 2.47 [95% CI, 1.04-5.87]; P = .03). Conclusions and Relevance: The high frequency of MVA among patients with FLNCtv with mild to moderate LVSD suggests that higher LVEF values than those currently recommended should be considered for prophylactic implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy in FLNCtv carriers.

Estimation of required sample size for external validation of risk models for binary outcomes.

Risk-prediction models for health outcomes are used in practice as part of clinical decision-making, and it is essential that their performance be externally validated. An important aspect in the design of a validation study is choosing an adequate sample size. In this paper, we investigate the sample size requirements for validation studies with binary outcomes to estimate measures of predictive performance (C-statistic for discrimination and calibration slope and calibration in the large). We aim for sufficient precision in the estimated measures. In addition, we investigate the sample size to achieve sufficient power to detect a difference from a target value. Under normality assumptions on the distribution of the linear predictor, we obtain simple estimators for sample size calculations based on the measures above. Simulation studies show that the estimators perform well for common values of the C-statistic and outcome prevalence when the linear predictor is marginally Normal. Their performance deteriorates only slightly when the normality assumptions are violated. We also propose estimators which do not require normality assumptions but require specification of the marginal distribution of the linear predictor and require the use of numerical integration. These estimators were also seen to perform very well under marginal normality. Our sample size equations require a specified standard error (SE) and the anticipated C-statistic and outcome prevalence. The sample size requirement varies according to the prognostic strength of the model, outcome prevalence, choice of the performance measure and study objective. For example, to achieve an SE < 0.025 for the C-statistic, 60-170 events are required if the true C-statistic and outcome prevalence are between 0.64-0.85 and 0.05-0.3, respectively. For the calibration slope and calibration in the large, achieving SE < 0.15 would require 40-280 and 50-100 events, respectively. Our estimators may also be used for survival outcomes when the proportion of censored observations is high.

Remote Microphone Hearing Aid Use Improves Classroom Listening, Without Adverse Effects on Spatial Listening and Attention Skills, in Children With Auditory Processing Disorder: A Randomised Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Children with Auditory Processing Disorder (APD) often have poor auditory processing skills in the presence of normal peripheral hearing. These children have worse listening-in-noise skills compared to typically developing peers, while other commonly reported symptoms include poor attention and distractibility. One of the management strategies for children with APD is the use of Remote Microphone Hearing Aids (RMHAs), which can help improve the signal-to-noise ratio in the child's ears. The aim of this randomised controlled trial was to examine whether RMHAs improved classroom listening in children with APD, and to further test their effects on children's listening-in-noise and attention skills following a 6-month intervention. METHODS: Twenty-six children diagnosed with APD, aged 7-12, in primary mainstream education, were randomised into the intervention (N = 13) and control group (N = 13). The primary outcome measure was the Listening Inventory for Education - Revised questionnaire, completed by children to assess their listening using RMHAs under several acoustically challenging situations in the classroom. Secondary outcome measures included the Listening in Spatialised Noise - Sentences test, assessing speech-in-noise perception and spatial listening, and the Test of Everyday Attention for Children, assessing different types of attention skills. Tests were conducted in unaided conditions. Mixed analysis of variance was used to analyse the data. The clinical trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov (unique identifier: NCT02353091). RESULTS: The questionnaire scores of self-reported listening skills in the classroom significantly improved in the intervention group after 3, MD = 7.31, SE = 2.113, p = 0.014, and after 6 months, M = 5.00, SE = 1.468, p = 0.016. The behavioural measures of listening-in-noise and attention did not significantly change. CONCLUSION: Use of RMHAs improves classroom listening, evidenced by the results of the questionnaire analysis, while a 6-month use did not have adverse effects on unaided spatial listening or attention skills.

Assessment of the Subarachnoid Hemorrhage International Trialists (SAHIT) Models for Dichotomized Long-Term Functional Outcome Prediction After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage in a United Kingdom Multicenter Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Long-term outcome after subarachnoid hemorrhage, beyond the first few months, is difficult to predict, but has critical relevance to patients, their families, and carers. OBJECTIVE: To assess the performance of the Subarachnoid Hemorrhage International Trialists (SAHIT) prediction models, which were initially designed to predict short-term (90 d) outcome, as predictors of long-term (2 yr) functional outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). METHODS: We included 1545 patients with angiographically-proven aSAH from the Genetic and Observational Subarachnoid Haemorrhage (GOSH) study recruited at 22 hospitals between 2011 and 2014. We collected data on age, WNFS grade on admission, history of hypertension, Fisher grade, aneurysm size and location, as well as treatment modality. Functional outcome was measured by the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) with GOS 1 to 3 corresponding to unfavorable and 4 to 5 to favorable functional outcome, according to the SAHIT models. The SAHIT models were assessed for long-term outcome prediction by estimating measures of calibration (calibration slope) and discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC]) in relation to poor clinical outcome. RESULTS: Follow-up was standardized to 2 yr using imputation methods. All 3 SAHIT models demonstrated acceptable predictive performance for long-term functional outcome. The estimated AUC was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65-0.76), 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68-0.77), and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.69-0.79) for the core, neuroimaging, and full models, respectively; the calibration slopes were 0.86, 0.84, and 0.89, indicating good calibration. CONCLUSION: The SAHIT prediction models, incorporating simple factors available on hospital admission, show good predictive performance for long-term functional outcome after aSAH.

Mortality Among Referral Patients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy vs the General European Population.

Importance: It is unclear whether hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) conveys excess mortality when compared with the general population. Objective: To compare the survival of patients with HCM with that of the general European population. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study of 4893 consecutive adult patients with HCM presenting at 7 European referral centers between 1980 and 2013. The data were analyzed between April 2018 and August 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: Survival was compared using standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) calculated with data from Eurostat, stratified by study period, country, sex, and age, and using a composite end point in the HCM cohort of all-cause mortality, aborted sudden cardiac death, and heart transplant. Results: Of 4893 patients with HCM, 3126 (63.9%) were male, and the mean (SD) age at presentation was 49.2 (16.4) years. During a median follow-up of 6.2 years (interquartile range, 3.1-9.8 years), 721 patients (14.7%) reached the composite end point. Compared with the general population, patients with HCM had excess mortality throughout the age spectrum (SMR, 2.0, 95% CI, 1.48-2.63). Excess mortality was highest among patients presenting prior to the year 2000 but persisted in the cohort presenting between 2006 and 2013 (SMR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.55-2.18). Women had higher excess mortality than men (SMR, 2.66; 95% CI, 2.38-2.97; vs SMR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.52-1.85; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients referred to European specialty centers, HCM was associated with significant excess mortality through the life course. Although there have been improvements in survival with time, potentially reflecting improved treatments for HCM, these findings highlight the need for more research into the causes of excess mortality among patients with HCM and for better risk stratification.

Effect of Trimetazidine Dihydrochloride Therapy on Exercise Capacity in Patients With Nonobstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy causes limiting symptoms in patients, mediated partly through inefficient myocardial energy use. There is conflicting evidence for therapy with inhibitors of myocardial fatty acid metabolism in patients with nonobstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Objective: To determine the effect of oral therapy with trimetazidine, a direct inhibitor of fatty acid ß-oxidation, on exercise capacity in patients with symptomatic nonobstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trial at The Heart Hospital, University College London Hospitals, London, United Kingdom was performed between May 31, 2012, and September 8, 2014. The trial included 51 drug-refractory symptomatic (New York Heart Association class ≥2) patients aged 24 to 74 years with a maximum left ventricular outflow tract gradient 50 mm Hg or lower and a peak oxygen consumption during exercise of 80% or less predicted value for age and sex. Statistical analysis was performed from March 1, 2016 through July 4, 2018. Interventions: Participants were randomly assigned to trimetazidine, 20 mg, 3 times daily (n = 27) or placebo (n = 24) for 3 months. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was peak oxygen consumption during upright bicycle ergometry. Secondary end points were 6-minute walk distance, quality of life (Minnesota Living with Heart Failure questionnaire), frequency of ventricular ectopic beats, diastolic function, serum N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide level, and troponin T level. Results: Of 49 participants who received trimetazidine (n = 26) or placebo (n = 23) and completed the study, 34 (70%) were male; the mean (SD) age was 50 (13) years. Trimetazidine therapy did not improve exercise capacity, with patients in the trimetazidine group walking 38.4 m (95% CI, 5.13 to 71.70 m) less than patients in the placebo group at 3 months after adjustment for their baseline walking distance measurements. After adjustment for baseline values, peak oxygen consumption was 1.35 mL/kg per minute lower (95% CI, -2.58 to -0.11 mL/kg per minute; P = .03) in the intervention group after 3 months. Conclusions and Relevance: In symptomatic patients with nonobstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, trimetazidine therapy does not improve exercise capacity. Pharmacologic therapy for this disease remains limited. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01696370.