Transgender Women With Suppressed Testosterone Display Lower Burden of Coronary Disease Than Matched Cisgender Men.

Context: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) in transgender women (TW) may be affected by gender-affirming hormone therapy (GAHT) and HIV, but few data compare TW on contemporary GAHT to well-matched controls. Objective: We compared CVD burden and biomarker profiles between TW and matched cisgender men (CM). Methods: Adult TW on GAHT (n = 29) were recruited for a cross-sectional study (2018-2020). CM (n = 48) from the former Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study were matched 2:1 to TW on HIV serostatus, age ±5 years, race/ethnicity, BMI category and antiretroviral therapy (ART) type. Cardiac parameters were measured by CT and coronary atherosclerosis by coronary CT angiography; sex hormone and biomarker concentrations were measured centrally from stored samples. Results: Overall, median age was 53 years and BMI 29 kg/m2; 69% were non-white. All participants with HIV (71%) had viral suppression on ART. Only 31% of TW had testosterone suppression (<50 ng/dL, TW-S). Traditional CVD risk factors were similar between groups, except that TW-S had higher BMI than TW with non-suppressed testosterone (TW-T). TW-S had no evidence of non-calcified coronary plaque or advanced coronary stenosis, whereas TW-T and CM had similar burden. TW had lower prevalence of any coronary plaque, calcified plaque and mixed plaque than CM, regardless of testosterone concentrations and HIV serostatus. Estradiol but not testosterone concentrations moderately and negatively correlated with the presence of coronary plaque and stenosis. Small sample size limited statistical power. Conclusion: Older TW with suppressed total testosterone on GAHT had no CT evidence of non-calcified coronary plaque or advanced coronary stenosis. Longitudinal studies to understand relationships between GAHT and CVD risk in TW are needed.

Identifying People at High Risk for Severe Aortic Stenosis: Aortic Valve Calcium Versus Lipoprotein(a) and Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol.

BACKGROUND: Aortic valve calcification (AVC), Lp(a) [lipoprotein(a)], and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) are associated with severe aortic stenosis (AS). We aimed to determine which of these risk factors were most strongly associated with the risk of incident severe AS. METHODS: A total of 6792 participants from the MESA study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) had computed tomography-quantified AVC, Lp(a), and LDL-C values at MESA visit 1 (2000-2002). We calculated the absolute event rate of incident adjudicated severe AS per 1000 person-years and performed multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: The mean age was 62 years old, and 47% were women. Over a median 16.7-year follow-up, the rate of incident severe AS increased exponentially with higher AVC, regardless of Lp(a) or LDL-C values. Participants with AVC=0 had a very low rate of severe AS even with elevated Lp(a) ≥50 mg/dL (<0.1/1000 person-years) or LDL-C ≥130 mg/dL (0.1/1000 person-years). AVC >0 was strongly associated with severe AS when Lp(a) <50 mg/dL hazard ratio (HR) of 33.8 (95% CI, 16.4-70.0) or ≥50 mg/dL HR of 61.5 (95% CI, 7.7-494.2) and when LDL-C <130 mg/dL HR of 31.1 (95% CI, 14.4-67.1) or ≥130 mg/dL HR of 50.2 (95% CI, 13.2-191.9). CONCLUSIONS: AVC better identifies people at high risk for severe AS compared with Lp(a) or LDL-C, and people with AVC=0 have a very low long-term rate of severe AS regardless of Lp(a) or LDL-C level. These results suggest AVC should be the preferred prognostic risk marker to identify patients at high risk for severe AS, which may help inform participant selection for future trials testing novel strategies to prevent severe AS.

Epidemiologic Features of Recovery From SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

Importance: Persistent symptoms and disability following SARS-CoV-2 infection, known as post-COVID-19 condition or "long COVID," are frequently reported and pose a substantial personal and societal burden. Objective: To determine time to recovery following SARS-CoV-2 infection and identify factors associated with recovery by 90 days. Design, Setting, and Participants: For this prospective cohort study, standardized ascertainment of SARS-CoV-2 infection was conducted starting in April 1, 2020, across 14 ongoing National Institutes of Health-funded cohorts that have enrolled and followed participants since 1971. This report includes data collected through February 28, 2023, on adults aged 18 years or older with self-reported SARS-CoV-2 infection. Exposure: Preinfection health conditions and lifestyle factors assessed before and during the pandemic via prepandemic examinations and pandemic-era questionnaires. Main Outcomes and Measures: Probability of nonrecovery by 90 days and restricted mean recovery times were estimated using Kaplan-Meier curves, and Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to assess multivariable-adjusted associations with recovery by 90 days. Results: Of 4708 participants with self-reported SARS-CoV-2 infection (mean [SD] age, 61.3 [13.8] years; 2952 women [62.7%]), an estimated 22.5% (95% CI, 21.2%-23.7%) did not recover by 90 days post infection. Median (IQR) time to recovery was 20 (8-75) days. By 90 days post infection, there were significant differences in restricted mean recovery time according to sociodemographic, clinical, and lifestyle characteristics, particularly by acute infection severity (outpatient vs critical hospitalization, 32.9 days [95% CI, 31.9-33.9 days] vs 57.6 days [95% CI, 51.9-63.3 days]; log-rank P < .001). Recovery by 90 days post infection was associated with vaccination prior to infection (hazard ratio [HR], 1.30; 95% CI, 1.11-1.51) and infection during the sixth (Omicron variant) vs first wave (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.06-1.49). These associations were mediated by reduced severity of acute infection (33.4% and 17.6%, respectively). Recovery was unfavorably associated with female sex (HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.79-0.92) and prepandemic clinical cardiovascular disease (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.71-0.99). No significant multivariable-adjusted associations were observed for age, educational attainment, smoking history, obesity, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or elevated depressive symptoms. Results were similar for reinfections. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, more than 1 in 5 adults did not recover within 3 months of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Recovery within 3 months was less likely in women and those with preexisting cardiovascular disease and more likely in those with COVID-19 vaccination or infection during the Omicron variant wave.

Association of aortic valve calcium with dementia and stroke: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Calcific aortic valve disease is associated with increased thrombin formation, platelet activation, decreased fibrinolysis, and subclinical brain infarcts. We examined the long-term association of aortic valve calcification (AVC) with newly diagnosed dementia and incident stroke in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). METHODS: AVC was measured using non-contrast cardiac CT at Visit 1. We examined AVC as a continuous (log-transformed) and categorical variable (0, 1-99, 100-299, ≥300). Newly diagnosed dementia was adjudicated using International Classification of Disease codes. Stroke was adjudicated from medical records. We calculated absolute event rates (per 1000 person-years) and multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards ratios (HR). RESULTS: Overall, 6812 participants had AVC quantified with a mean age of 62.1 years old, 52.9 % were women, and the median 10-year estimated atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk was 13.5 %. Participants with AVC >0 were older and less likely to be women compared to those with AVC=0. Over a median 16-year follow-up, there were 535 cases of dementia and 376 cases of stroke. The absolute risk of newly diagnosed dementia increased in a stepwise pattern with higher AVC scores, and stroke increased in a logarithmic pattern. In multivariable analyses, AVC was significantly associated with newly diagnosed dementia as a log-transformed continuous variable (HR 1.09; 95 % CI 1.04-1.14) and persons with AVC ≥300 had nearly a two-fold higher risk (HR 1.77; 95 % CI 1.14-2.76) compared to those with AVC=0. AVC was associated with an increased risk of stroke after adjustment for age, sex, and race/ethnicity, but not after adjustment for ASCVD risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: After multivariable adjustment, AVC >0 was significantly associated with an increased risk of newly diagnosed dementia, but not incident stroke. This suggests that AVC may be an important risk factor for the long-term risk of dementia beyond traditional ASCVD risk factors.

Nontraditional Risk Markers for Incident Coronary Artery Calcium Among Persons ≥65 Years of Age.

Background: The initiation of coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an important physiologic milestone associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk. However, traditional risk factors (RF) do not perform well for predicting incident CAC among the 54 million older U.S. adults. Objectives: The authors sought to assess the association between nontraditional cardiovascular disease RF and incident CAC in older persons. Methods: There were 815 MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) participants ≥65 years of age who had CAC = 0 at Visit 1 and a follow-up CAC scan. Multivariable adjusted Cox hazards ratios (aHR) and C-statistics were calculated to examine the association of nontraditional RF with incident CAC. Results: The mean age was 70.2 years and 67% were women. The median follow-up time to repeat CAC scan was 3.6 years (IQR: 2.6-9.2 years) and 45% of participants developed incident CAC. Albuminuria (aHR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.07-2.09), carotid plaque (aHR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.04-1.66), and thoracic aortic calcification (TAC) (aHR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.10-1.75) were significantly associated with incident CAC, while higher levels of nontraditional RF including apolipoprotein-B, lipoprotein(a), high-sensitivity troponin T, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide were not. When added to demographics, albuminuria, carotid plaque, and TAC provided a greater C-statistic improvement (+0.047, P = 0.004) vs all traditional RF combined (+0.033, P = 0.05). Conclusions: Among nontraditional RF and measures of subclinical atherosclerosis, only albuminuria, carotid plaque, and TAC were significantly associated with incident CAC in persons ≥65 years of age. Identification of albuminuria or extracoronary atherosclerosis may help guide the timing of repeat CAC scoring in older persons with baseline CAC = 0.

Associations between epicardial, visceral and subcutaneous adipose tissue with diastolic function in men with and without HIV.

BACKGROUND: People with HIV (PWH) are at greater risk for diastolic dysfunction (DD) compared to persons without HIV (PWOH). An increase in visceral adipose tissue (AT) is common among PWH and greater visceral AT is associated with DD among PWOH. We investigated associations of visceral AT, subcutaneous AT and other fat depots with subclinical DD among men with and without HIV (MWH/MWOH). DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of MWH and MWOH in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS). METHODS: Participants underwent echocardiography for DD assessment and CT scanning including subcutaneous, visceral, epicardial, and liver adiposity measurements. DD was defined by Characterizing Heart Function on Antiretroviral Therapy criteria. Odds for DD with each measure of adiposity were estimated using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 403 participants (median age 57, 55% white, median BMI 26 kg/m2), 25% met criteria for DD and 59% MWH (82% undetectable plasma HIV RNA). Greater epicardial AT area was associated with higher odds of DD (odds ratio:1.54 per SD;95%CI:1.15-2.05) when adjusted for demographics, HIV serostatus, and cardiovascular risk factors. This association did not differ by HIV serostatus and persisted when excluding MWH who were not virally suppressed. Less subcutaneous AT was associated with a higher odds of DD. Other adipose depots were not associated with DD. CONCLUSIONS: Greater epicardial AT and less subcutaneous AT were associated with DD, regardless of HIV serostatus and viral suppression. Greater epicardial AT and less subcutaneous AT observed among PWH may contribute to risk for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in this population.

Classification of Free-Living Body Posture with ECG Patch Accelerometers: Application to the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.

Purpose: As health studies increasingly monitor free-living heart performance via ECG patches with accelerometers, researchers will seek to investigate cardio-electrical responses to physical activity and sedentary behavior, increasing demand for fast, scalable methods to process accelerometer data. We extend a posture classification algorithm for accelerometers in ECG patches when researchers do not have ground-truth labels or other reference measurements (i.e., upright measurement). Methods: Men living with and without HIV in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort study wore the Zio XT® for up to two weeks (n = 1,250). Our novel extensions for posture classification include (1) estimation of an upright posture for each individual without a reference upright measurement; (2) correction of the upright estimate for device removal and re-positioning using novel spherical change-point detection; and (3) classification of upright and recumbent periods using a clustering and voting process rather than a simple inclination threshold used in other algorithms. As no posture labels exist in the free-living environment, we perform numerous sensitivity analyses and evaluate the algorithm against labelled data from the Towson Accelerometer Study, where participants wore accelerometers at the waist. Results: On average, 87.1% of participants were recumbent at 4am and 15.5% were recumbent at 1pm. Participants were recumbent 54 minutes longer on weekends compared to weekdays. Performance was good in comparison to labelled data in a separate, controlled setting (accuracy = 96.0%, sensitivity = 97.5%, specificity = 95.9%). Conclusions: Posture may be classified in the free-living environment from accelerometers in ECG patches even without measuring a standard upright position. Furthermore, algorithms that fail to account for individuals who rotate and re-attach the accelerometer may fail in the free-living environment.

Thoracic versus coronary calcification for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events prediction.

This study compared the prognostic value of quantified thoracic artery calcium (TAC) including aortic arch on chest CT and coronary artery calcium (CAC) score on ECG-gated cardiac CT. METHODS: A total of 2412 participants who underwent both chest CT and ECG-gated cardiac CT at the same period were included in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis Exam 5. All participants were monitored for incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events. TAC is defined as calcification in the ascending aorta, aortic arch and descending aorta on chest CT. The quantification of TAC was measured using the Agatston method. Time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the prognostic value of TAC and CAC scores. RESULTS: Participants were 69±9 years of age and 47% were male. The Spearman correlation between TAC and CAC scores was 0.46 (p<0.001). During the median follow-up period of 8.8 years, 234 participants (9.7%) experienced ASCVD events. In multivariable Cox regression analysis, TAC score was independently associated with increased risk of ASCVD events (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.58) as well as CAC score (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.53 to 2.17). However, the area under the time-dependent ROC curve for CAC score was greater than that for TAC score in all participants (0.698 and 0.641, p=0.031). This was particularly pronounced in participants with borderline/intermediate and high 10-year ASCVD risk scores. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrated a significant association between TAC and CAC scores but a superior prognostic value of CAC score for ASCVD events. These findings suggest TAC on chest CT provides supplementary data to estimate ASCVD risk but does not replace CAC on ECG-gated cardiac CT.

Immunoglobulin G N-glycan markers of accelerated biological aging during chronic HIV infection.

People living with HIV (PLWH) experience increased vulnerability to premature aging and inflammation-associated comorbidities, even when HIV replication is suppressed by antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, the factors associated with this vulnerability remain uncertain. In the general population, alterations in the N-glycans on IgGs trigger inflammation and precede the onset of aging-associated diseases. Here, we investigate the IgG N-glycans in cross-sectional and longitudinal samples from 1214 women and men, living with and without HIV. PLWH exhibit an accelerated accumulation of pro-aging-associated glycan alterations and heightened expression of senescence-associated glycan-degrading enzymes compared to controls. These alterations correlate with elevated markers of inflammation and the severity of comorbidities, potentially preceding the development of such comorbidities. Mechanistically, HIV-specific antibodies glycoengineered with these alterations exhibit a reduced ability to elicit anti-HIV Fc-mediated immune activities. These findings hold potential for the development of biomarkers and tools to identify and prevent premature aging and comorbidities in PLWH.

Subclinical vascular composites predict clinical cardiovascular disease, stroke, and dementia: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) measures may reflect biological pathways that contribute to increased risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) events, stroke, and dementia beyond conventional risk scores. METHODS: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) followed 6814 participants (45-84 years of age) from baseline in 2000-2002 to 2018 over 6 clinical examinations and annual follow-up interviews. MESA baseline subclinical CVD procedures included: seated and supineblood pressure, coronary calcium scan, radial artery tonometry, and carotid ultrasound. Baseline subclinical CVD measures were transformed into z-scores before factor analysis to derive composite factor scores. Time to clinical event for all-cause CVD, CHD, stroke and ICD code-based dementia events were modeled using Cox proportional hazards models reported as area under the curve (AUC) with 95% Confidence Intervals (95%CI) at 10 and 15 years of follow-up. All models included all factor scores together, and adjustment for conventional risk scores for global CVD, stroke, and dementia. RESULTS: After factor selection, 24 subclinical measures aggregated into four distinct factors representing: blood pressure, atherosclerosis, arteriosclerosis, and cardiac factors. Each factor significantly predicted time to CVD events and dementia at 10 and 15 years independent of each other and conventional risk scores. Subclinical vascular composites of atherosclerosis and arteriosclerosis best predicted time to clinical events of CVD, CHD, stroke, and dementia. These results were consistent across sex and racial and ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical vascular composites of atherosclerosis and arteriosclerosis may be useful biomarkers to inform the vascular pathways contributing to events of CVD, CHD, stroke, and dementia.

Galectin-3, Metabolic Risk, and Incident Heart Failure: The ARIC Study.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear how metabolic syndrome (MetS) and diabetes affect Gal-3 (galectin 3) levels and the resulting implications for heart failure (HF) risk. We assessed relationships of MetS and diabetes with Gal-3, and their joint associations with incident HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 8445 participants without HF (mean age, 63 years; 59% men; 16% Black race) at ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study visit 4 (1996-1999). We categorized participants as having MetS only, MetS with diabetes, or neither, and by quartiles of MetS severity Z score. We assessed cross-sectional associations of metabolic risk categories with high Gal-3 level (≥75th percentile) using logistic regression. We used Cox regression to evaluate combined associations of metabolic risk categories and Gal-3 quartiles with HF. In cross-sectional analyses, compared with no MetS and no diabetes, MetS only (odds ratio [OR], 1.24 [95% CI, 1.10-1.41]) and MetS with diabetes (OR, 1.59 [95% CI, 1.32-1.92]) were associated with elevated Gal-3. Over a median follow-up of 20.5 years, there were 1749 HF events. Compared with individuals with neither diabetes nor MetS and with Gal-3 in the lowest quartile, the combination of MetS with diabetes and Gal-3 ≥75th percentile was associated with a 4-fold higher HF risk (hazard ratio, 4.35 [95% CI, 3.30-5.73]). Gal-3 provided HF prognostic information above and beyond MetS, NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, and CRP (C-reactive protein) (ΔC statistic for models with versus without Gal-3: 0.003; P=0.004). CONCLUSIONS: MetS and diabetes are associated with elevated Gal-3. The HF risk significantly increased with the combination of greater metabolic risk and higher Gal-3.

Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cell Gene Expression Associated with Pulmonary Microvascular Perfusion: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Rationale: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and emphysema are associated with endothelial damage and altered pulmonary microvascular perfusion. The molecular mechanisms underlying these changes are poorly understood in patients, in part because of the inaccessibility of the pulmonary vasculature. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) interact with the pulmonary endothelium. Objectives: To test the association between gene expression in PBMCs and pulmonary microvascular perfusion in COPD. Methods: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) COPD Study recruited two independent samples of COPD cases and controls with ⩾10 pack-years of smoking history. In both samples, pulmonary microvascular blood flow, pulmonary microvascular blood volume, and mean transit time were assessed on contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, and PBMC gene expression was assessed by microarray. Additional replication was performed in a third sample with pulmonary microvascular blood volume measures on contrast-enhanced dual-energy computed tomography. Differential expression analyses were adjusted for age, gender, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, height, weight, smoking status, and pack-years of smoking. Results: The 79 participants in the discovery sample had a mean age of 69 ± 6 years, 44% were female, 25% were non-White, 34% were current smokers, and 66% had COPD. There were large PBMC gene expression signatures associated with pulmonary microvascular perfusion traits, with several replicated in the replication sets with magnetic resonance imaging (n = 47) or dual-energy contrast-enhanced computed tomography (n = 157) measures. Many of the identified genes are involved in inflammatory processes, including nuclear factor-κB and chemokine signaling pathways. Conclusions: PBMC gene expression in nuclear factor-κB, inflammatory, and chemokine signaling pathways was associated with pulmonary microvascular perfusion in COPD, potentially offering new targetable candidates for novel therapies.

Association of HIV and HCV Infection With Carotid Artery Plaque Echomorphology in the MACS/WIHS Combined Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) are associated with increased risk of carotid artery atherosclerotic plaque and stroke. We examined associations of HIV- and HCV-related factors with echomorphologic features of carotid artery plaque. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included participants from the MACS (Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study)/WIHS (Women's Interagency HIV Study) Combined Cohort Study who underwent high-resolution B-mode carotid artery ultrasound. Plaques were characterized from 6 areas of the right carotid artery. Poisson regression controlling for demographic and cardiometabolic risk factors determined adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) and 95% CIs for associations of HIV- and HCV-related factors with echomorphologic features. RESULTS: Of 2655 participants (65% women, median age 44 [interquartile range, 37-50] years), 1845 (70%) were living with HIV, 600 (23%) were living with HCV, and 425 (16%) had carotid plaque. There were 191 plaques identified in 129 (11%) women with HIV, 51 plaques in 32 (7%) women without HIV, 248 plaques in 171 (28%) men with HIV, and 139 plaques in 93 (29%) men without HIV. Adjusted analyses showed that people with HIV and current CD4+ count <200 cells/µL had a significantly higher prevalence of predominantly echolucent plaque (aPR, 1.86 [95% CI, 1.08-3.21]) than those without HIV. HCV infection alone (aPR, 1.86 [95% CI, 1.08-3.19]) and HIV-HCV coinfection (aPR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.10-2.78]) were each associated with higher prevalence of predominantly echogenic plaque. HIV-HCV coinfection was also associated with higher prevalence of smooth surface plaque (aPR, 2.75 [95% CI, 1.03-7.32]) compared with people without HIV and HCV. CONCLUSIONS: HIV with poor immunologic control, as well as HCV infection, either alone or in the presence of HIV, were associated with different echomorphologic phenotypes of carotid artery plaque.

Proteomic Signature of HIV-Associated Subclinical Left Atrial Remodeling and Incident Heart Failure.

Background: People living with HIV (PLWH) are at higher risk of heart failure (HF) and preceding subclinical cardiac abnormalities, including left atrial dilation, compared to people without HIV (PWOH). Hypothesized mechanisms include premature aging linked to chronic immune activation. We leveraged plasma proteomics to identify potential novel contributors to HIV-associated differences in indexed left atrial volume (LAVi) among PLWH and PWOH and externally validated identified proteomic signatures with incident HF among a cohort of older PWOH. Methods: We performed proteomics (Olink Explore 3072) on plasma obtained concurrently with cardiac magnetic resonance imaging among PLWH and PWOH in the United States. Proteins were analyzed individually and as agnostically defined clusters. Cross-sectional associations with HIV and LAVi were estimated using multivariable regression with robust variance. Among an independent general population cohort, we estimated associations between identified signatures and LAVi using linear regression and incident HF using Cox regression. Results: Among 352 participants (age 55±6 years; 25% female), 61% were PLWH (88% on ART; 73% with undetectable HIV RNA) and mean LAVi was 29±9 mL/m 2 . Of 2594 analyzed proteins, 439 were associated with HIV serostatus, independent of demographics, hepatitis C virus infection, renal function, and substance use (FDR<0.05). We identified 73 of these proteins as candidate contributors to the independent association between positive HIV serostatus and higher LAVi, enriched in tumor necrosis factor (TNF) signaling and immune checkpoint proteins regulating T cell, B cell, and NK cell activation. We identified one protein cluster associated with LAVi and HIV regardless of HIV viral suppression status, which comprised 42 proteins enriched in TNF signaling, ephrin signaling, and extracellular matrix (ECM) organization. This protein cluster and 30 of 73 individual proteins were associated with incident HF among 2273 older PWOH (age 68±9 years; 52% female; 8.5±1.4 years of follow-up). Conclusion: Proteomic signatures that may contribute to HIV-associated LA remodeling were enriched in immune checkpoint proteins, cytokine signaling, and ECM organization. These signatures were also associated with incident HF among older PWOH, suggesting specific markers of chronic immune activation, systemic inflammation, and fibrosis may identify shared pathways in HIV and aging that contribute to risk of HF.

Universal Risk Prediction for Individuals With and Without Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines recommend distinct risk classification systems for primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention. However, both systems rely on similar predictors (eg, age and diabetes), indicating the possibility of a universal risk prediction approach for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). OBJECTIVES: The authors examined the performance of predictors in persons with and without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and developed and validated a universal risk prediction model. METHODS: Among 9,138 ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) participants with (n = 609) and without (n = 8,529) ASCVD at baseline (1996-1998), we examined established predictors in the risk classification systems and other predictors, such as body mass index and cardiac biomarkers (troponin and natriuretic peptide), using Cox models with MACEs (myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure). We also evaluated model performance. RESULTS: Over a follow-up of approximately 20 years, there were 3,209 MACEs (2,797 for no prior ASCVD). Most predictors showed similar associations with MACE regardless of baseline ASCVD status. A universal risk prediction model with the predictors (eg, established predictors, cardiac biomarkers) identified by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and bootstrapping showed good discrimination for both groups (c-statistics of 0.747 and 0.691, respectively), and risk classification and showed excellent calibration, irrespective of ASCVD status. This universal prediction approach identified individuals without ASCVD who had a higher risk than some individuals with ASCVD and was validated externally in 5,322 participants in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). CONCLUSIONS: A universal risk prediction approach performed well in persons with and without ASCVD. This approach could facilitate the transition from primary to secondary prevention by streamlining risk classification and discussion between clinicians and patients.

Atherothrombotic and thrombolytic biomarkers in incident stroke and atrial fibrillation-related stroke: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although several biomarkers have been studied in thromboembolic stroke, measuring the balance between thrombus formation and thrombolysis and data on its role in predicting stroke and atrial fibrillation (AF)-related stroke is limited. We sought to assess atherothrombotic biomarkers grouped into composite factors that reflect thrombotic and thrombolytic potential, and the balance between these factors as it relates to incident stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) and stroke/TIA in AF. METHODS: A Thrombotic Factor, derived from fibrinogen, plasmin-antiplasmin complex, factor VIII, D-dimer, and lipoprotein(a); and a Thrombolytic Factor, derived from plasminogen and oxidized phospholipids on plasminogen, were evaluated at baseline in 5,764 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants. We evaluated the association between these two factors representative of thrombotic and thrombolytic potential and incident stroke/TIA (n = 402), and AF-related stroke/TIA (n = 82) over a median of 13.9 and 3.7 years, respectively. Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for medication use, cardiovascular risk factors and CHA2DS2-VASc score were utilized. Harrell's C-index was estimated to evaluate model performance. RESULTS: In models including both factors, Thrombotic Factor was positively while Thrombolytic Factor was inversely associated with incident stroke/TIA and AF-related stroke/TIA. Incorporating these factors along with the CHA2DS2-VASc in adjusted models resulted in a small improvement in risk prediction of incident stroke/TIA and AF-related stroke/TIA compared to models without the factors (C-index from 0.697 to 0.704, and from 0.657 to 0.675, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Composite biomarker factors, representative of the balance between thrombotic and thrombolytic propensity, provided an improvement in predicting stroke/TIA beyond CHA2DS2-VASc score.

Tryptophan metabolism, gut microbiota, and carotid artery plaque in women with and without HIV infection.

OBJECTIVE: The perturbation of tryptophan (TRP) metabolism has been linked with HIV infection and cardiovascular disease (CVD), but the interrelationship among TRP metabolites, gut microbiota, and atherosclerosis remain unclear in the context of HIV infection. METHODS: We included 361 women (241 HIV+, 120 HIV-) with carotid artery plaque assessments from the Women's Interagency HIV Study, measured 10 plasma TRP metabolites and profiled fecal gut microbiome. TRP metabolite-related gut bacteria were selected through the Analysis of Compositions of Microbiomes with Bias Correction method. Associations of TRP metabolites and related microbial features with plaque were examined using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Although plasma kynurenic acid (KYNA) [odds ratio (OR) = 1.93, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.12-3.32 per one SD increase; P  = 0.02) and KYNA/TRP [OR = 1.83 (95% CI 1.08-3.09), P  = 0.02] were positively associated with plaque, indole-3-propionate (IPA) [OR = 0.62 (95% CI 0.40-0.98), P  = 0.03] and IPA/KYNA [OR = 0.51 (95% CI 0.33-0.80), P  < 0.01] were inversely associated with plaque. Five gut bacterial genera and many affiliated species were positively associated with IPA (FDR-q < 0.25), including Roseburia spp ., Eubacterium spp., Lachnospira spp., and Coprobacter spp.; but no bacterial genera were found to be associated with KYNA. Furthermore, an IPA-associated-bacteria score was inversely associated with plaque [OR = 0.47 (95% CI 0.28-0.79), P  < 0.01]. But no significant effect modification by HIV serostatus was observed in these associations. CONCLUSION: In a cohort of women living with and without HIV infection, plasma IPA levels and related gut bacteria were inversely associated with carotid artery plaque, suggesting a potential beneficial role of IPA and its gut bacterial producers in atherosclerosis and CVD.

Prevalence of Aortic Valve Calcium and the Long-Term Risk of Incident Severe Aortic Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Aortic valve calcification (AVC) is a principal mechanism underlying aortic stenosis (AS). OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine the prevalence of AVC and its association with the long-term risk for severe AS. METHODS: Noncontrast cardiac computed tomography was performed among 6,814 participants free of known cardiovascular disease at MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) visit 1. AVC was quantified using the Agatston method, and normative age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific AVC percentiles were derived. The adjudication of severe AS was performed via chart review of all hospital visits and supplemented with visit 6 echocardiographic data. The association between AVC and long-term incident severe AS was evaluated using multivariable Cox HRs. RESULTS: AVC was present in 913 participants (13.4%). The probability of AVC >0 and AVC scores increased with age and were generally highest among men and White participants. In general, the probability of AVC >0 among women was equivalent to men of the same race/ethnicity who were approximately 10 years younger. Incident adjudicated severe AS occurred in 84 participants over a median follow-up of 16.7 years. Higher AVC scores were exponentially associated with the absolute risk and relative risk of severe AS with adjusted HRs of 12.9 (95% CI: 5.6-29.7), 76.4 (95% CI: 34.3-170.2), and 380.9 (95% CI: 169.7-855.0) for AVC groups 1 to 99, 100 to 299, and ≥300 compared with AVC = 0. CONCLUSIONS: The probability of AVC >0 varied significantly by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. The risk of severe AS was exponentially higher with higher AVC scores, whereas AVC = 0 was associated with an extremely low long-term risk of severe AS. The measurement of AVC provides clinically relevant information to assess an individual's long-term risk for severe AS.

Role of Polyunsaturated Fat in Modifying Cardiovascular Risk Associated With Family History of Cardiovascular Disease: Pooled De Novo Results From 15 Observational Studies.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether dietary intake of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) modifies the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk associated with a family history of CVD. We assessed interactions between biomarkers of low PUFA intake and a family history in relation to long-term CVD risk in a large consortium. METHODS: Blood and tissue PUFA data from 40 885 CVD-free adults were assessed. PUFA levels ≤25th percentile were considered to reflect low intake of linoleic, alpha-linolenic, and eicosapentaenoic/docosahexaenoic acids (EPA/DHA). Family history was defined as having ≥1 first-degree relative who experienced a CVD event. Relative risks with 95% CI of CVD were estimated using Cox regression and meta-analyzed. Interactions were assessed by analyzing product terms and calculating relative excess risk due to interaction. RESULTS: After multivariable adjustments, a significant interaction between low EPA/DHA and family history was observed (product term pooled RR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.02-1.16]; P=0.01). The pooled relative risk of CVD associated with the combined exposure to low EPA/DHA, and family history was 1.41 (95% CI, 1.30-1.54), whereas it was 1.25 (95% CI, 1.16-1.33) for family history alone and 1.06 (95% CI, 0.98-1.14) for EPA/DHA alone, compared with those with neither exposure. The relative excess risk due to interaction results indicated no interactions. CONCLUSIONS: A significant interaction between biomarkers of low EPA/DHA intake, but not the other PUFA, and a family history was observed. This novel finding might suggest a need to emphasize the benefit of consuming oily fish for individuals with a family history of CVD.

Association of urine biomarkers of kidney health with subclinical cardiovascular disease among men with and without HIV.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine whether urine biomarkers of kidney health are associated with subclinical cardiovascular disease among men with and without HIV. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study within the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) among 504 men with and without HIV infection who underwent cardiac computed tomography scans and had urine biomarkers measured within the preceding 2 years. METHODS: Our primary predictors were four urine biomarkers of endothelial (albuminuria), proximal tubule dysfunction (alpha-1-microglobulin [A1 M] and injury (kidney injury molecule-1 [KIM-1]) and tubulointerstitial fibrosis (pro-collagen-III N-terminal peptide [PIIINP]). These were evaluated for association with coronary artery calcium (CAC) prevalence, CAC extent, total plaque score, and total segment stenosis using multivariable regression. RESULTS: Of the 504 participants, 384 were men with HIV (MWH) and 120 were men without HIV. In models adjusted for sociodemographic factors, cardiovascular disease risk factors, eGFR, and HIV-related factors, each two-fold higher concentration of albuminuria was associated with a greater extent of CAC (1.35-fold higher, 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.65), and segment stenosis (1.08-fold greater, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.16). Associations were similar between MWH and men without HIV in stratified analyses. The third quartile of A1 M showed an association with greater CAC extent, total plaque score, and total segment stenosis, compared with the lowest quartile. CONCLUSION: Worse endothelial and proximal tubule dysfunction, as reflected by higher urine albumin and A1 M, were associated with greater CAC extent and coronary artery stenosis.