The Influence of Pubertal Development on Autoantibody Appearance and Progression to Type 1 Diabetes in the TEDDY Study.

Context: The 2 peaks of type 1 diabetes incidence occur during early childhood and puberty. Objective: We sought to better understand the relationship between puberty, islet autoimmunity, and type 1 diabetes. Methods: The relationships between puberty, islet autoimmunity, and progression to type 1 diabetes were investigated prospectively in children followed in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study. Onset of puberty was determined by subject self-assessment of Tanner stages. Associations between speed of pubertal progression, pubertal growth, weight gain, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), islet autoimmunity, and progression to type 1 diabetes were assessed. The influence of individual factors was analyzed using Cox proportional hazard ratios. Results: Out of 5677 children who were still in the study at age 8 years, 95% reported at least 1 Tanner Stage score and were included in the study. Children at puberty (Tanner Stage ≥2) had a lower risk (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.45-0.93; P = .019) for incident autoimmunity than prepubertal children (Tanner Stage 1). An increase of body mass index Z-score was associated with a higher risk (HR 2.88, 95% CI 1.61-5.15; P < .001) of incident insulin autoantibodies. In children with multiple autoantibodies, neither HOMA-IR nor rate of progression to Tanner Stage 4 were associated with progression to type 1 diabetes. Conclusion: Rapid weight gain during puberty is associated with development of islet autoimmunity. Puberty itself had no significant influence on the appearance of autoantibodies or type 1 diabetes. Further studies are needed to better understand the underlying mechanisms.

Caesarean section and risk of type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Delivery by Caesarean section continues to rise globally and has been associated with the risk of developing type 1 diabetes and the rate of progression from pre-symptomatic stage 1 or 2 type 1 diabetes to symptomatic stage 3 disease. The aim of this study was to examine the association between Caesarean delivery and progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes in children with pre-symptomatic early-stage type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Caesarean section was examined in 8135 children from the TEDDY study who had an increased genetic risk for type 1 diabetes and were followed from birth for the development of islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes. RESULTS: The likelihood of delivery by Caesarean section was higher in children born to mothers with type 1 diabetes (adjusted OR 4.61, 95% CI 3.60, 5.90, p<0.0001), in non-singleton births (adjusted OR 4.35, 95% CI 3.21, 5.88, p<0.0001), in premature births (adjusted OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.53, 2.39, p<0.0001), in children born in the USA (adjusted OR 2.71, 95% CI 2.43, 3.02, p<0.0001) and in children born to older mothers (age group >28-33 years: adjusted OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04, 1.35, p=0.01; age group >33 years: adjusted OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.58, 2.06, p<0.0001). Caesarean section was not associated with an increased risk of developing pre-symptomatic early-stage type 1 diabetes (risk by age 10 years 5.7% [95% CI 4.6%, 6.7%] for Caesarean delivery vs 6.6% [95% CI 6.0%, 7.3%] for vaginal delivery, p=0.07). Delivery by Caesarean section was associated with a modestly increased rate of progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes in children who had developed multiple islet autoantibody-positive pre-symptomatic early-stage type 1 diabetes (adjusted HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.03, 1.79, p=0.02). No interaction was observed between Caesarean section and non-HLA SNPs conferring susceptibility for type 1 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Caesarean section increased the rate of progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes in children with pre-symptomatic early-stage type 1 diabetes. DATA AVAILABILITY: Data from the TEDDY study ( https://doi.org/10.58020/y3jk-x087 ) reported here will be made available for request at the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) Central Repository (NIDDK-CR) Resources for Research (R4R) ( https://repository.niddk.nih.gov/ ).

Diabetes Study of Children of Diverse Ethnicity and Race: Study design.

AIMS: Determining diabetes type in children has become increasingly difficult due to an overlap in typical characteristics between type 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). The Diabetes Study in Children of Diverse Ethnicity and Race (DISCOVER) programme is a National Institutes of Health (NIH)-supported multicenter, prospective, observational study that enrols children and adolescents with non-secondary diabetes. The primary aim of the study was to develop improved models to differentiate between T1D and T2D in diverse youth. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The proposed models will evaluate the utility of three existing T1D genetic risk scores in combination with data on islet autoantibodies and other parameters typically available at the time of diabetes onset. Low non-fasting serum C-peptide (<0.6 nmol/L) between 3 and 10 years after diabetes diagnosis will be considered a biomarker for T1D as it reflects the loss of insulin secretion ability. Participating centres are enrolling youth (<19 years old) either with established diabetes (duration 3-10 years) for a cross-sectional evaluation or with recent onset diabetes (duration 3 weeks-15 months) for the longitudinal observation with annual visits for 3 years. Cross-sectional data will be used to develop models. Longitudinal data will be used to externally validate the best-fitting model. RESULTS: The results are expected to improve the ability to classify diabetes type in a large and growing subset of children who have an unclear form of diabetes at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Accurate and timely classification of diabetes type will help establish the correct clinical management early in the course of the disease.

HLA Genotype and Probiotics Modify the Association Between Timing of Solid Food Introduction and Islet Autoimmunity in the TEDDY Study.

OBJECTIVE: To study the interaction among HLA genotype, early probiotic exposure, and timing of complementary foods in relation to risk of islet autoimmunity (IA). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study prospectively follows 8,676 children with increased genetic risk of type 1 diabetes. We used a Cox proportional hazards regression model adjusting for potential confounders to study early feeding and the risk of IA in a sample of 7,770 children. RESULTS: Any solid food introduced early (<6 months) was associated with increased risk of IA if the child had the HLA DR3/4 genotype and no probiotic exposure during the 1st year of life. Rice introduced at 4-5.9 months compared with later in the U.S. was associated with an increased risk of IA. CONCLUSIONS: Timing of solid food introduction, including rice, may be associated with IA in children with the HLA DR3/4 genotype not exposed to probiotics. The microbiome composition under these exposure combinations requires further study.

Dietary Intake and Body Mass Index Influence the Risk of Islet Autoimmunity in Genetically At-Risk Children: A Mediation Analysis Using the TEDDY Cohort.

Background/Objective: Growth and obesity have been associated with increased risk of islet autoimmunity (IA) and progression to type 1 diabetes. We aimed to estimate the effect of energy-yielding macronutrient intake on the development of IA through BMI. Research Design and Methods: Genetically at-risk children (n = 5,084) in Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the USA, who were autoantibody negative at 2 years of age, were followed to the age of 8 years, with anthropometric measurements and 3-day food records collected biannually. Of these, 495 (9.7%) children developed IA. Mediation analysis for time-varying covariates (BMI z-score) and exposure (energy intake) was conducted. Cox proportional hazard method was used in sensitivity analysis. Results: We found an indirect effect of total energy intake (estimates: indirect effect 0.13 [0.05, 0.21]) and energy from protein (estimates: indirect effect 0.06 [0.02, 0.11]), fat (estimates: indirect effect 0.03 [0.01, 0.05]), and carbohydrates (estimates: indirect effect 0.02 [0.00, 0.04]) (kcal/day) on the development of IA. A direct effect was found for protein, expressed both as kcal/day (estimates: direct effect 1.09 [0.35, 1.56]) and energy percentage (estimates: direct effect 72.8 [3.0, 98.0]) and the development of GAD autoantibodies (GADA). In the sensitivity analysis, energy from protein (kcal/day) was associated with increased risk for GADA, hazard ratio 1.24 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.53), p = 0.042. Conclusions: This study confirms that higher total energy intake is associated with higher BMI, which leads to higher risk of the development of IA. A diet with larger proportion of energy from protein has a direct effect on the development of GADA.

Gastrointestinal Infections Modulate the Risk for Insulin Autoantibodies as the First-Appearing Autoantibody in the TEDDY Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate gastrointestinal infection episodes (GIEs) in relation to the appearance of islet autoantibodies in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) cohort. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: GIEs on risk of autoantibodies against either insulin (IAA) or GAD (GADA) as the first-appearing autoantibody were assessed in a 10-year follow-up of 7,867 children. Stool virome was characterized in a nested case-control study. RESULTS: GIE reports (odds ratio [OR] 2.17 [95% CI 1.39-3.39]) as well as Norwalk viruses found in stool (OR 5.69 [1.36-23.7]) at <1 year of age were associated with an increased IAA risk at 2-4 years of age. GIEs reported at age 1 to <2 years correlated with a lower risk of IAA up to 10 years of age (OR 0.48 [0.35-0.68]). GIE reports at any other age were associated with an increase in IAA risk (OR 2.04 for IAA when GIE was observed 12-23 months prior [1.41-2.96]). Impacts on GADA risk were limited to GIEs <6 months prior to autoantibody development in children <4 years of age (OR 2.16 [1.54-3.02]). CONCLUSIONS: Bidirectional associations were observed. GIEs were associated with increased IAA risk when reported before 1 year of age or 12-23 months prior to IAA. Norwalk virus was identified as one possible candidate factor. GIEs reported during the 2nd year of life were associated with a decreased IAA risk.

Possible heterogeneity of initial pancreatic islet beta-cell autoimmunity heralding type 1 diabetes.

The etiology of type 1 diabetes (T1D) foreshadows the pancreatic islet beta-cell autoimmune pathogenesis that heralds the clinical onset of T1D. Standardized and harmonized tests of autoantibodies against insulin (IAA), glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA), islet antigen-2 (IA-2A), and ZnT8 transporter (ZnT8A) allowed children to be followed from birth until the appearance of a first islet autoantibody. In the Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study, a multicenter (Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the United States) observational study, children were identified at birth for the T1D high-risk HLA haploid genotypes DQ2/DQ8, DQ2/DQ2, DQ8/DQ8, and DQ4/DQ8. The TEDDY study was preceded by smaller studies in Finland, Germany, Colorado, Washington, and Sweden. The aims were to follow children at increased genetic risk to identify environmental factors that trigger the first-appearing autoantibody (etiology) and progress to T1D (pathogenesis). The larger TEDDY study found that the incidence rate of the first-appearing autoantibody was split into two patterns. IAA first peaked already during the first year of life and tapered off by 3-4 years of age. GADA first appeared by 2-3 years of age to reach a plateau by about 4 years. Prior to the first-appearing autoantibody, genetic variants were either common or unique to either pattern. A split was also observed in whole blood transcriptomics, metabolomics, dietary factors, and exposures such as gestational life events and early infections associated with prolonged shedding of virus. An innate immune reaction prior to the adaptive response cannot be excluded. Clarifying the mechanisms by which autoimmunity is triggered to either insulin or GAD65 is key to uncovering the etiology of autoimmune T1D.

Rising Hemoglobin A1c in the Nondiabetic Range Predicts Progression of Type 1 Diabetes As Well As Oral Glucose Tolerance Tests.

OBJECTIVE: Biomarkers predicting risk of type 1 diabetes (stage 3) among children with islet autoantibodies are greatly needed to prevent diabetic ketoacidosis and facilitate prevention therapies. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Children in the prospective The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study (n = 707) with confirmed diabetes-associated autoantibodies (GAD antibody, IA-2A, and/or insulin autoantibody) and two or more HbA1c measurements were followed to diabetes or median age 11.1 years. Once confirmed autoantibody positive, HbA1c was measured quarterly. Cox models and receiver operative characteristic curve analyses revealed the prognostic utility for risk of stage 3 on a relative HbA1c increase from the baseline visit or an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) 2-h plasma glucose (2-hPG). This HbA1c approach was then validated in the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study (TrialNet) (n = 1,190). RESULTS: A 10% relative HbA1c increase from baseline best marked the increased risk of stage 3 in TEDDY (74% sensitive; 88% specific). Significant predictors of risk for HbA1c change were age and HbA1c at the baseline test, genetic sex, maximum number of autoantibodies, and maximum rate of HbA1c increase by time of change. The multivariable model featuring a HbA1c ≥10% increase and these additional factors revealed increased risk of stage 3 in TEDDY (hazard ratio [HR] 12.74, 95% CI 8.7-18.6, P < 0.0001) and TrialNet (HR 5.09, 95% CI 3.3-7.9, P < 0.0001). Furthermore, the composite model using HbA1c ≥10% increase performed similarly to an OGTT 2-hPG composite model (TEDDY area under the curve [AUC] 0.88 and 0.85, respectively) and to the HbA1c model in TrialNet (AUC 0.82). CONCLUSIONS: An increase of ≥10% in HbA1c from baseline is as informative as OGTT 2-hPG in predicting risk of stage 3 in youth with genetic risk and diabetes-associated autoantibodies.

A robust and transformation-free joint model with matching and regularization for metagenomic trajectory and disease onset.

BACKGROUND: To identify operational taxonomy units (OTUs) signaling disease onset in an observational study, a powerful strategy was selecting participants by matched sets and profiling temporal metagenomes, followed by trajectory analysis. Existing trajectory analyses modeled individual OTU or microbial community without adjusting for the within-community correlation and matched-set-specific latent factors. RESULTS: We proposed a joint model with matching and regularization (JMR) to detect OTU-specific trajectory predictive of host disease status. The between- and within-matched-sets heterogeneity in OTU relative abundance and disease risk were modeled by nested random effects. The inherent negative correlation in microbiota composition was adjusted by incorporating and regularizing the top-correlated taxa as longitudinal covariate, pre-selected by Bray-Curtis distance and elastic net regression. We designed a simulation pipeline to generate true biomarkers for disease onset and the pseudo biomarkers caused by compositionality. We demonstrated that JMR effectively controlled the false discovery and pseudo biomarkers in a simulation study generating temporal high-dimensional metagenomic counts with random intercept or slope. Application of the competing methods in the simulated data and the TEDDY cohort showed that JMR outperformed the other methods and identified important taxa in infants' fecal samples with dynamics preceding host disease status. CONCLUSION: Our method JMR is a robust framework that models taxon-specific trajectory and host disease status for matched participants without transformation of relative abundance, improving the power of detecting disease-associated microbial features in certain scenarios. JMR is available in R package mtradeR at https://github.com/qianli10000/mtradeR.

Temporal changes in gastrointestinal fungi and the risk of autoimmunity during early childhood: the TEDDY study.

Fungal infections are a major health problem that often begin in the gastrointestinal tract. Gut microbe interactions in early childhood are critical for proper immune responses, yet there is little known about the development of the fungal population from infancy into childhood. Here, as part of the TEDDY (The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young) study, we examine stool samples of 888 children from 3 to 48 months and find considerable differences between fungi and bacteria. The metagenomic relative abundance of fungi was extremely low but increased while weaning from milk and formula. Overall fungal diversity remained constant over time, in contrast with the increase in bacterial diversity. Fungal profiles had high temporal variation, but there was less variation from month-to-month in an individual than among different children of the same age. Fungal composition varied with geography, diet, and the use of probiotics. Multiple Candida spp. were at higher relative abundance in children than adults, while Malassezia and certain food-associated fungi were lower in children. There were only subtle fungal differences associated with the subset of children that developed islet autoimmunity or type 1 diabetes. Having proper fungal exposures may be crucial for children to establish appropriate responses to fungi and limit the risk of infection: the data here suggests those gastrointestinal exposures are limited and variable.

Integration of Infant Metabolite, Genetic, and Islet Autoimmunity Signatures to Predict Type 1 Diabetes by Age 6 Years.

CONTEXT: Biomarkers that can accurately predict risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in genetically predisposed children can facilitate interventions to delay or prevent the disease. OBJECTIVE: This work aimed to determine if a combination of genetic, immunologic, and metabolic features, measured at infancy, can be used to predict the likelihood that a child will develop T1D by age 6 years. METHODS: Newborns with human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing were enrolled in the prospective birth cohort of The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY). TEDDY ascertained children in Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the United States. TEDDY children were either from the general population or from families with T1D with an HLA genotype associated with T1D specific to TEDDY eligibility criteria. From the TEDDY cohort there were 702 children will all data sources measured at ages 3, 6, and 9 months, 11.4% of whom progressed to T1D by age 6 years. The main outcome measure was a diagnosis of T1D as diagnosed by American Diabetes Association criteria. RESULTS: Machine learning-based feature selection yielded classifiers based on disparate demographic, immunologic, genetic, and metabolite features. The accuracy of the model using all available data evaluated by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve is 0.84. Reducing to only 3- and 9-month measurements did not reduce the area under the curve significantly. Metabolomics had the largest value when evaluating the accuracy at a low false-positive rate. CONCLUSION: The metabolite features identified as important for progression to T1D by age 6 years point to altered sugar metabolism in infancy. Integrating this information with classic risk factors improves prediction of the progression to T1D in early childhood.

Heterogeneity of DKA Incidence and Age-Specific Clinical Characteristics in Children Diagnosed With Type 1 Diabetes in the TEDDY Study.

OBJECTIVE: The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study is uniquely capable of investigating age-specific differences associated with type 1 diabetes. Because age is a primary driver of heterogeneity in type 1 diabetes, we sought to characterize by age metabolic derangements prior to diagnosis and clinical features associated with diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The 379 TEDDY children who developed type 1 diabetes were grouped by age at onset (0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years; n = 142, 151, and 86, respectively) with comparisons of autoantibody profiles, HLAs, family history of diabetes, presence of DKA, symptomatology at onset, and adherence to TEDDY protocol. Time-varying analysis compared those with oral glucose tolerance test data with TEDDY children who did not progress to diabetes. RESULTS: Increasing fasting glucose (hazard ratio [HR] 1.09 [95% CI 1.04-1.14]; P = 0.0003), stimulated glucose (HR 1.50 [1.42-1.59]; P < 0.0001), fasting insulin (HR 0.89 [0.83-0.95]; P = 0.0009), and glucose-to-insulin ratio (HR 1.29 [1.16-1.43]; P < 0.0001) were associated with risk of progression to type 1 diabetes. Younger children had fewer autoantibodies with more symptoms at diagnosis. Twenty-three children (6.1%) had DKA at onset, only 1 (0.97%) of 103 with and 22 (8.0%) of 276 children without a first-degree relative (FDR) with type 1 diabetes (P = 0.008). Children with DKA were more likely to be nonadherent to study protocol (P = 0.047), with longer duration between their last TEDDY evaluation and diagnosis (median 10.2 vs. 2.0 months without DKA; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: DKA at onset in TEDDY is uncommon, especially for FDRs. For those without familial risk, metabolic monitoring continues to provide a primary benefit of reduced DKA but requires regular follow-up. Clinical and laboratory features vary by age at onset, adding to the heterogeneity of type 1 diabetes.

Associations of breastfeeding with childhood autoimmunity, allergies, and overweight: The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study.

BACKGROUND: Breastfeeding has beneficial effects on numerous health outcomes. OBJECTIVES: We investigated whether breastfeeding duration is associated with the development of early childhood autoimmunity, allergies, or obesity in a multinational prospective birth cohort. METHODS: Infants with genetic susceptibility for type 1 diabetes (n = 8676) were followed for the development of autoantibodies to islet autoantigens or transglutaminase, allergies, and for anthropometric measurements to a median age of 8.3 y (IQR: 2.8-10.2 y). Information on breastfeeding was collected at 3 mo of age and prospectively thereafter. A propensity score for longer breastfeeding was calculated from the variables that were likely to influence any or exclusive breastfeeding. The risks of developing autoimmunity or allergy were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, and the risk of obesity at 5.5 y of age was assessed using logistic regression with adjustment by the propensity score. RESULTS: Breastfeeding duration was not associated with a lower risk of either islet or transglutaminase autoimmunity (any breastfeeding >6 mo, adjusted HR: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.19; exclusive breastfeeding >3 mo, adjusted HR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.92, 1.15). Exclusive breastfeeding >3 mo was associated with a decreased risk of seasonal allergic rhinitis (adjusted HR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.53, 0.92; P < 0.01). Any breastfeeding >6 mo and exclusive breastfeeding >3 mo were associated with decreased risk of obesity (adjusted OR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.47, 0.81; P < 0.001; and adjusted OR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.47, 0.95; P < 0.05, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Longer breastfeeding was not associated with a lower risk of childhood (islet or transglutaminase) autoimmunity in genetically at-risk children but was associated with decreased risk of seasonal allergic rhinitis and obesity at 5.5 y of age.

An Age-Related Exponential Decline in the Risk of Multiple Islet Autoantibody Seroconversion During Childhood.

OBJECTIVE: Islet autoimmunity develops before clinical type 1 diabetes and includes multiple and single autoantibody phenotypes. The objective was to determine age-related risks of islet autoantibodies that reflect etiology and improve screening for presymptomatic type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young study prospectively monitored 8,556 genetically at-risk children at 3- to 6-month intervals from birth for the development of islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes. The age-related change in the risk of developing islet autoantibodies was determined using landmark and regression models. RESULTS: The 5-year risk of developing multiple islet autoantibodies was 4.3% (95% CI 3.8-4.7) at 7.5 months of age and declined to 1.1% (95% CI 0.8-1.3) at a landmark age of 6.25 years (P < 0.0001). Risk decline was slight or absent in single insulin and GAD autoantibody phenotypes. The influence of sex, HLA, and other susceptibility genes on risk subsided with increasing age and was abrogated by age 6 years. Highest sensitivity and positive predictive value of multiple islet autoantibody phenotypes for type 1 diabetes was achieved by autoantibody screening at 2 years and again at 5-7 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of developing islet autoimmunity declines exponentially with age, and the influence of major genetic factors on this risk is limited to the first few years of life.

The clinical consequences of heterogeneity within and between different diabetes types.

Advances in molecular methods and the ability to share large population-based datasets are uncovering heterogeneity within diabetes types, and some commonalities between types. Within type 1 diabetes, endotypes have been discovered based on demographic (e.g. age at diagnosis, race/ethnicity), genetic, immunological, histopathological, metabolic and/or clinical course characteristics, with implications for disease prediction, prevention, diagnosis and treatment. In type 2 diabetes, the relative contributions of insulin resistance and beta cell dysfunction are heterogeneous and relate to demographics, genetics and clinical characteristics, with substantial interaction from environmental exposures. Investigators have proposed approaches that vary from simple to complex in combining these data to identify type 2 diabetes clusters relevant to prognosis and treatment. Advances in pharmacogenetics and pharmacodynamics are also improving treatment. Monogenic diabetes is a prime example of how understanding heterogeneity within diabetes types can lead to precision medicine, since phenotype and treatment are affected by which gene is mutated. Heterogeneity also blurs the classic distinctions between diabetes types, and has led to the definition of additional categories, such as latent autoimmune diabetes in adults, type 1.5 diabetes and ketosis-prone diabetes. Furthermore, monogenic diabetes shares many features with type 1 and type 2 diabetes, which make diagnosis difficult. These challenges to the current classification framework in adult and paediatric diabetes require new approaches. The 'palette model' and the 'threshold hypothesis' can be combined to help explain the heterogeneity within and between diabetes types. Leveraging such approaches for therapeutic benefit will be an important next step for precision medicine in diabetes. Graphical abstract.

A combined risk score enhances prediction of type 1 diabetes among susceptible children.

Type 1 diabetes (T1D)-an autoimmune disease that destroys the pancreatic islets, resulting in insulin deficiency-often begins early in life when islet autoantibody appearance signals high risk1. However, clinical diabetes can follow in weeks or only after decades, and is very difficult to predict. Ketoacidosis at onset remains common2,3 and is most severe in the very young4,5, in whom it can be life threatening and difficult to treat6-9. Autoantibody surveillance programs effectively prevent most ketoacidosis10-12 but require frequent evaluations whose expense limits public health adoption13. Prevention therapies applied before onset, when greater islet mass remains, have rarely been feasible14 because individuals at greatest risk of impending T1D are difficult to identify. To remedy this, we sought accurate, cost-effective estimation of future T1D risk by developing a combined risk score incorporating both fixed and variable factors (genetic, clinical and immunological) in 7,798 high-risk children followed closely from birth for 9.3 years. Compared with autoantibodies alone, the combined model dramatically improves T1D prediction at ≥2 years of age over horizons up to 8 years of age (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ≥ 0.9), doubles the estimated efficiency of population-based newborn screening to prevent ketoacidosis, and enables individualized risk estimates for better prevention trial selection.

Hierarchical Order of Distinct Autoantibody Spreading and Progression to Type 1 Diabetes in the TEDDY Study.

OBJECTIVE: The first-appearing ß-cell autoantibody has been shown to influence risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D). Here, we assessed the risk of autoantibody spreading to the second-appearing autoantibody and further progression to clinical disease in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Eligible children with increased HLA-DR-DQ genetic risk for T1D were followed quarterly from age 3 months up to 15 years for development of a single first-appearing autoantibody (GAD antibody [GADA], insulin autoantibody [IAA], or insulinoma antigen-2 autoantibody [IA-2A]) and subsequent development of a single second-appearing autoantibody and progression to T1D. Autoantibody positivity was defined as positivity for a specific autoantibody at two consecutive visits confirmed in two laboratories. Zinc transporter 8 autoantibody (ZnT8A) was measured in children who developed another autoantibody. RESULTS: There were 608 children who developed a single first-appearing autoantibody (IAA, n = 282, or GADA, n = 326) with a median follow-up of 12.5 years from birth. The risk of a second-appearing autoantibody was independent of GADA versus IAA as a first-appearing autoantibody (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.12; 95% CI 0.88-1.42; P = 0.36). Second-appearing GADA, IAA, IA-2A, or ZnT8A conferred an increased risk of T1D compared with children who remained positive for a single autoantibody, e.g., IAA or GADA second (adjusted HR 6.44; 95% CI 3.78-10.98), IA-2A second (adjusted HR 16.33; 95% CI 9.10-29.29; P < 0.0001), or ZnT8A second (adjusted HR 5.35; 95% CI 2.61-10.95; P < 0.0001). In children who developed a distinct second autoantibody, IA-2A (adjusted HR 3.08; 95% CI 2.04-4.65; P < 0.0001) conferred a greater risk of progression to T1D as compared with GADA or IAA. Additionally, both a younger initial age at seroconversion and shorter time to the development of the second-appearing autoantibody increased the risk for T1D. CONCLUSIONS: The hierarchical order of distinct autoantibody spreading was independent of the first-appearing autoantibody type and was age-dependent and augmented the risk of progression to T1D.

Distinct Growth Phases in Early Life Associated With the Risk of Type 1 Diabetes: The TEDDY Study.

OBJECTIVE: This study investigates two-phase growth patterns in early life and their association with development of islet autoimmunity (IA) and type 1 diabetes (T1D). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study followed 7,522 genetically high-risk children in Sweden, Finland, Germany, and the U.S. from birth for a median of 9.0 years (interquartile range 5.7-10.6) with available growth data. Of these, 761 (10.1%) children developed IA and 290 (3.9%) children were diagnosed with T1D. Bayesian two-phase piecewise linear mixed models with a random change point were used to estimate children's individual growth trajectories. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the effects of associated growth parameters on the risks of IA and progression to T1D. RESULTS: A higher rate of weight gain in infancy was associated with increased IA risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.09 [95% CI 1.02, 1.17] per 1 kg/year). A height growth pattern with a lower rate in infancy (HR 0.79 [95% CI 0.70, 0.90] per 1 cm/year), higher rate in early childhood (HR 1.48 [95% CI 1.22, 1.79] per 1 cm/year), and younger age at the phase transition (HR 0.76 [95% CI 0.58, 0.99] per 1 month) was associated with increased risk of progression from IA to T1D. A higher rate of weight gain in early childhood was associated with increased risk of progression from IA to T1D (HR 2.57 [95% CI 1.34, 4.91] per 1 kg/year) in children with first-appearing GAD autoantibody only. CONCLUSIONS: Growth patterns in early life better clarify how specific growth phases are associated with the development of T1D.

Prospective virome analyses in young children at increased genetic risk for type 1 diabetes.

Viruses are implicated in autoimmune destruction of pancreatic islet ß cells, which results in insulin deficiency and type 1 diabetes (T1D)1-4. Certain enteroviruses can infect ß cells in vitro5, have been detected in the pancreatic islets of patients with T1D6 and have shown an association with T1D in meta-analyses4. However, establishing consistency in findings across studies has proven difficult. Obstacles to convincingly linking RNA viruses to islet autoimmunity may be attributed to rapid viral mutation rates, the cyclical periodicity of viruses7 and the selection of variants with altered pathogenicity and ability to spread in populations. ß cells strongly express cell-surface coxsackie and adenovirus receptor (CXADR) genes, which can facilitate enterovirus infection8. Studies of human pancreata and cultured islets have shown significant variation in enteroviral virulence to ß cells between serotypes and within the same serotype9,10. In this large-scale study of known eukaryotic DNA and RNA viruses in stools from children, we evaluated fecally shed viruses in relation to islet autoimmunity and T1D. This study showed that prolonged enterovirus B rather than independent, short-duration enterovirus B infections may be involved in the development of islet autoimmunity, but not T1D, in some young children. Furthermore, we found that fewer early-life human mastadenovirus C infections, as well as CXADR rs6517774, independently correlated with islet autoimmunity.