Heterogeneity of treatment effect of vilobelimab in COVID-19: a secondary analysis of a randomised controlled trial.

In a phase 3 trial (PANAMO, NCT04333420), vilobelimab, a complement 5a (C5a) inhibitor, reduced 28-day mortality in mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients. This post hoc analysis of 368 patients aimed to explore treatment heterogeneity through unsupervised learning. All available clinical variables at baseline were used as input. Treatment heterogeneity was assessed using latent class analysis (LCA), Ward's hierarchical clustering (HC) and the adjudication to previously described clinical sepsis phenotypes. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. For LCA, a 2-class latent model was deemed most suitable. In the LCA model, 82 (22%) patients were assigned to class 1 and 286 (78%) to class 2. Class 1 was defined by more severely ill patients with significantly higher mortality. In an adjusted logistic regression, no heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) between classes was observed (p = 0.998). For HC, no significant classes were found (p = 0.669). Using the previously described clinical sepsis subtypes, 41 patients (11%) were adjudicated subtype alpha (α), 17 (5%) beta (ß), 112 (30%) delta (δ) and 198 (54%) gamma (γ). HTE was observed between clinical subtypes (p = 0.001) with improved 28-day mortality after treatment with vilobelimab for the δ subtype (OR = 0.17, 95% CI 0.07-0.40, p < 0.001). No signal for harm of treatment with vilobelimab was observed in any class or clinical subtype. Overall, treatment effect with vilobelimab was consistent across different classes and subtypes, except for the δ subtype, suggesting potential additional benefit for the most severely ill patients.

Incidence of catheter-related thrombosis and its association with outcome in critically ill patients: A prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Incidence of central venous catheter (CVC)-related thrombosis in critically ill patients remains ambiguous and its association with potential hazardous sequelae unknown. The primary aim of the study was to evaluate the epidemiology of CVC-related thrombosis; secondary aims were to assess the association of catheter-related thrombosis with catheter-related infection, pulmonary embolism and mortality. METHODS: This was a single-center, prospective observational study conducted at a tertiary intensive care unit (ICU) in the Netherlands. The study population consisted of CVC placements in adult ICU patients with a minimal indwelling time of 48 h. CVC-related thrombosis was diagnosed with ultrasonography. Primary outcomes were prevalence and incidence, incidence was reported as the number of cases per 1000 indwelling days. RESULTS: 173 CVCs in 147 patients were included. Median age of patients was 64.0 [IQR: 52.0, 72.0] and 71.1 % were male. Prevalence of thrombosis was 0.56 (95 % CI: 0.49, 0.63) and incidence per 1000 indwelling days was 65.7 (95 % CI: 59.0, 72.3). No association with catheter-related infection was found (p = 0.566). There was a significant association with pulmonary embolism (p = 0.022). All 173 CVCs were included in the survival analysis. Catheter-related thrombosis was associated with a lower 28-day mortality risk (hazard ratio: 0.39, 95 % CI: 0.17, 0.87). CONCLUSION: In critically ill patients, prevalence and incidence of catheter-related thrombosis were high. Catheter-related thrombosis was not associated with catheter-related infections, but was associated with pulmonary embolism and a decreased mortality risk.

Health-related quality of life one year after refractory cardiac arrest treated with conventional or extracorporeal CPR; a secondary analysis of the INCEPTION-trial.

Background: Prospective, trial-based data comparing health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients surviving out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) through extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) or conventional CPR (CCPR) are scarce. We aimed to determine HRQoL during 1-year after refractory OHCA in patients treated with ECPR and CCPR. Methods: We present a secondary analysis of the multicenter INCEPTION-trial, which studied the effectiveness of ECPR versus CCPR in patients with refractory OHCA. HRQoL was prospectively assessed using the EQ-5D-5L questionnaire. Poor HRQoL was pragmatically defined as an EQ-5D-5L health utility index (HUI) > 1 SD below the age-adjusted norm. We used mixed linear models to assess the difference in HRQoL over time and univariable analyses to assess factors potentially associated with poor HRQoL. Results: A total of 134 patients were enrolled, and hospital survival was 20% (27 patients). EQ-5D-5L data were available for 25 patients (5 ECPR and 20 CCPR). One year after OHCA, the estimated mean HUI was 0.73 (0.05) in all patients, 0.84 (0.12) in ECPR survivors, and 0.71 (0.05) in CCPR survivors (p-value 0.31). Eight (32%) survivors had a poor HRQoL. HRQoL was good in 17 (68%) patients, with 100% in ECPR survivors versus 60% in CCPR survivors (p-value 0.14). Conclusion: One year after refractory OHCA, 68% of the survivors had a good HRQoL. We found no statistically significant difference in HRQoL one year after OHCA in patients treated with ECPR compared to CCPR. However, numerical differences may be clinically relevant in favor of ECPR.

A quality improvement study on how a simulation model can help decision making on organization of ICU wards.

BACKGROUND: Intensive Care Unit (ICU) capacity management is essential to provide high-quality healthcare for critically ill patients. Yet, consensus on the most favorable ICU design is lacking, especially whether ICUs should deliver dedicated or non-dedicated care. The decision for dedicated or non-dedicated ICU design considers a trade-off in the degree of specialization for individual patient care and efficient use of resources for society. We aim to share insights of a model simulating capacity effects for different ICU designs. Upon request, this simulation model is available for other ICUs. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model was developed and used, to study the hypothetical performance of a large University Hospital ICU on occupancy, rejection, and rescheduling rates for a dedicated and non-dedicated ICU design in four different scenarios. These scenarios either simulate the base-case situation of the local ICU, varying bed capacity levels, potential effects of reduced length of stay for a dedicated design and unexpected increased inflow of unplanned patients. RESULTS: The simulation model provided insights to foresee effects of capacity choices that should be made. The non-dedicated ICU design outperformed the dedicated ICU design in terms of efficient use of scarce resources. CONCLUSIONS: The choice to use dedicated ICUs does not only affect the clinical outcome, but also rejection- rescheduling and occupancy rates. Our analysis of a large university hospital demonstrates how such a model can support decision making on ICU design, in conjunction with other operation characteristics such as staffing and quality management.

Bleeding assessment following central venous catheter placement, a direct comparison of prospective and retrospective analyses.

BACKGROUND: Reported bleeding incidences following central venous catheter (CVC) placement highly depend on methods of bleeding assessment. To determine the direction and magnitude of the bias associated with retrospective data collection, we used data from the PACER randomized controlled trial and a previous retrospective cohort study. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A patient-level comparison of CVC-related bleeding severity was made among (1) the prospectively collected clinical bleeding assessment of the PACER trial, (2) centralized assessment of CVC insertion site photographs, and (3) retrospective chart review. Interrater reliability for photographic bleeding assessment and retrospective chart review was assessed using Cohen's κ. The magnitude of underreporting of both methods compared to prospective clinical bleeding assessment at different cutoff points of clinically relevant bleeding was assessed using McNemar's test. RESULTS: Interrater reliability was acceptable for both methods (κ = 0.583 and κ = 0.481 for photographic assessment and retrospective chart review, respectively). Photographic bleeding assessment led to significant underreporting of bleeding complications at all cutoff points. Retrospective chart review led to significant underreporting of minor bleeding complications, with an odds ratio (95% CI) of 0.17 (0.044-0.51) for the cutoff point grade 1 (i.e., self-limiting or requiring at most 20 min of manual compression) or higher. There was no significant underreporting of major bleeding complications with retrospective chart review. DISCUSSION: Centralized photographic bleeding assessment and retrospective chart review lead to biased bleeding assessment compared to prospective clinical bleeding assessment.

Biomarker patterns in patients with cardiogenic shock versus septic shock.

Background: In cardiogenic shock (CS), contractile failure is often accompanied by a systemic inflammatory response syndrome. In contrast, many patients with septic shock (SS) develop cardiac dysfunction. A similar hemodynamic support strategy is often deployed in both syndromes but it is unclear whether this is justified based on profiles of biomarkers expressing neurohormonal activation and cardiovascular stress. Methods: In this prospective, multicenter cohort, 111 patients with acute myocardial infarction related CS were identified, and matched to patients with SS. Clinical parameters were collected and blood samples were obtained on day 1-3 of Intensive Care admission. Results: In this shock cohort comprising 222 patients, with a mean age of 61 (±13.5) years and of whom 161 (37 %) were male, we found that despite obvious clinical disparities on admission, mortality at 30-days did not differ (CS: 40.5 % vs. SS 43.1 %, p = 0.56). Overall, plasma concentrations of all biomarkers were higher in SS patients, with the largest difference on the first day. However, only in CS patients the biomarker concentrations were associated with mortality. Conclusion: In this prospective, multicenter cohort SS and CS patients showed similarities in baseline conditions and had similar mortality. However, several biomarkers only showed prognostic value in CS.

Towards personalized medicine: a scoping review of immunotherapy in sepsis.

Despite significant progress in our understanding of the pathophysiology of sepsis and extensive clinical research, there are few proven therapies addressing the underlying immune dysregulation of this life-threatening condition. The aim of this scoping review is to describe the literature evaluating immunotherapy in adult patients with sepsis, emphasizing on methods providing a "personalized immunotherapy" approach, which was defined as the classification of patients into a distinct subgroup or subphenotype, in which a patient's immune profile is used to guide treatment. Subgroups are subsets of sepsis patients, based on any cut-off in a variable. Subphenotypes are subgroups that can be reliably discriminated from other subgroup based on data-driven assessments. Included studies were randomized controlled trials and cohort studies investigating immunomodulatory therapies in adults with sepsis. Studies were identified by searching PubMed, Embase, Cochrane CENTRAL and ClinicalTrials.gov, from the first paper available until January 29th, 2024. The search resulted in 15,853 studies. Title and abstract screening resulted in 1409 studies (9%), assessed for eligibility; 771 studies were included, of which 282 (37%) were observational and 489 (63%) interventional. Treatment groups included were treatments targeting the innate immune response, the complement system, coagulation and endothelial dysfunction, non-pharmalogical treatment, pleiotropic drugs, immunonutrition, concomitant treatments, Traditional Chinese Medicine, immunostimulatory cytokines and growth factors, intravenous immunoglobulins, mesenchymal stem cells and immune-checkpoint inhibitors. A personalized approach was incorporated in 70 studies (9%). Enrichment was applied using cut-offs in temperature, laboratory, biomarker or genetic variables. Trials often showed conflicting results, possibly due to the lack of patient stratification or the potential influence of severity and timing on immunomodulatory therapy results. When a personalized approach was applied, trends of clinical benefit for several interventions emerged, which hold promise for future clinical trials using personalized immunotherapy.

Favorable resuscitation characteristics in patients undergoing extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation: A secondary analysis of the INCEPTION-trial.

Introduction: Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) is increasingly used as a supportive treatment for refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). Still, there is a paucity of data evaluating favorable and unfavorable prognostic characteristics in patients considered for ECPR. Methods: We performed a previously unplanned post-hoc analysis of the multicenter randomized controlled INCEPTION-trial. The study group consisted of patients receiving ECPR, irrespective of initial group randomization. The patients were divided into favorable survivors (cerebral performance category [CPC] 1-2) and unfavorable or non-survivors (CPC 3-5). Results: In the initial INCEPTION-trial, 134 patients were randomized. ECPR treatment was started in 46 (66%) of 70 patients in the ECPR treatment arm and 3 (4%) of 74 patients in the conventional treatment arm. No statistically significant differences in baseline characteristics, medical history, or causes of arrest were observed between survivors (n = 5) and non-survivors (n = 44). More patients in the surviving group had a shockable rhythm at the time of cannulation (60% vs. 14%, p = 0.037), underwent more defibrillation attempts (13 vs. 6, p = 0.002), and received higher dosages of amiodarone (450 mg vs 375 mg, p = 0.047) despite similar durations of resuscitation maneuvers. Furthermore, non-survivors more frequently had post-ECPR implantation adverse events. Conclusion: The persistence of ventricular arrhythmia is a favorable prognostic factor in patients with refractory OHCA undergoing an ECPR-based treatment. Future studies are warranted to confirm this finding and to establish additional prognostic factors.Clinical trial Registration:clinicaltrials.gov registration number NCT03101787.

Cost-effectiveness of extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation vs. conventional cardiopulmonary resuscitation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a pre-planned, trial-based economic evaluation.

AIMS: When out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) becomes refractory, extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) is a potential option to restore circulation and improve the patient's outcome. However, ECPR requires specific materials and highly skilled personnel, and it is unclear whether increased survival and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) justify these costs. METHODS AND RESULTS: This cost-effectiveness study was part of the INCEPTION study, a multi-centre, pragmatic randomized trial comparing hospital-based ECPR to conventional CPR (CCPR) in patients with refractory OHCA in 10 cardiosurgical centres in the Netherlands. We analysed healthcare costs in the first year and measured HRQOL using the EQ-5D-5L at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), cost-effectiveness planes, and acceptability curves were calculated. Sensitivity analyses were performed for per-protocol and as-treated subgroups as well as imputed productivity loss in deceased patients. In total, 132 patients were enrolled: 62 in the CCPR and 70 in the ECPR group. The difference in mean costs after 1 year was €5109 (95% confidence interval -7264 to 15 764). Mean quality-adjusted life year (QALY) after 1 year was 0.15 in the ECPR group and 0.11 in the CCPR group, resulting in an ICER of €121 643 per additional QALY gained. The acceptability curve shows that at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €80.000, the probability of ECPR being cost-effective compared with CCPR is 36%. Sensitivity analysis showed increasing ICER in the per-protocol and as-treated groups and lower probabilities of acceptance. CONCLUSION: Hospital-based ECPR in refractory OHCA has a low probability of being cost-effective in a trial-based economic evaluation.

A national multi centre pre-hospital ECPR stepped wedge study; design and rationale of the ON-SCENE study.

BACKGROUND: The likelihood of return of spontaneous circulation with conventional advanced life support is known to have an exponential decline and therefore neurological outcome after 20 min in patients with a cardiac arrest is poor. Initiation of venoarterial ExtraCorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO) during resuscitation might improve outcomes if used in time and in a selected patient category. However, previous studies have failed to significantly reduce the time from cardiac arrest to ECMO flow to less than 60 min. We hypothesize that the initiation of Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (ECPR) by a Helicopter Emergency Medical Services System (HEMS) will reduce the low flow time and improve outcomes in refractory Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA) patients. METHODS: The ON-SCENE study will use a non-randomised stepped wedge design to implement ECPR in patients with witnessed OHCA between the ages of 18-50 years old, with an initial presentation of shockable rhythm or pulseless electrical activity with a high suspicion of pulmonary embolism, lasting more than 20, but less than 45 min. Patients will be treated by the ambulance crew and HEMS with prehospital ECPR capabilities and will be compared with treatment by ambulance crew and HEMS without prehospital ECPR capabilities. The primary outcome measure will be survival at hospital discharge. The secondary outcome measure will be good neurological outcome defined as a cerebral performance categories scale score of 1 or 2 at 6 and 12 months. DISCUSSION: The ON-SCENE study focuses on initiating ECPR at the scene of OHCA using HEMS. The current in-hospital ECPR for OHCA obstacles encompassing low survival rates in refractory arrests, extended low-flow durations during transportation, and the critical time sensitivity of initiating ECPR, which could potentially be addressed through the implementation of the HEMS system. When successful, implementing on-scene ECPR could significantly enhance survival rates and minimize neurological impairment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltyrials.gov under NCT04620070, registration date 3 November 2020.

Detecting aortic valve stenosis based on the non-invasive blood pressure waveform-a proof of concept study.

The incidence of aortic valve stenosis (AoS) increases with age, and once diagnosed, symptomatic severe AoS has a yearly mortality rate of 25%. AoS is diagnosed with transthoracic echocardiography (TTE), however, this gold standard is time consuming and operator and acoustic window dependent. As AoS affects the arterial blood pressure waveform, AoS-specific waveform features might serve as a diagnostic tool. Aim of the present study was to develop a novel, non-invasive, AoS detection model based on blood pressures waveforms. This cross-sectional study included patients with AoS undergoing elective transcatheter or surgical aortic valve replacement. AoS was determined using TTE, and patients with no or mild AoS were labelled as patients without AoS, while patients with moderate or severe AoS were labelled as patients with AoS. Non-invasive blood pressure measurements were performed in awake patients. Ten minutes of consecutive data was collected. Several blood pressure-based features were derived, and the median, interquartile range, variance, and the 1st and 9th decile of the change of these features were calculated. The primary outcome was the development of a machine-learning model for AoS detection, investigating multiple classifiers and training on the area under the receiver-operating curve (AUROC). In total, 101 patients with AoS and 48 patients without AoS were included. Patients with AoS showed an increase in left ventricular ejection time (0.02 s, p = 0.001), a delayed maximum upstroke in the systolic phase (0.015 s, p < 0.001), and a delayed maximal systolic pressure (0.03 s, p < 0.001) compared to patients without AoS. With the logistic regression model, a sensitivity of 0.81, specificity of 0.67, and AUROC of 0.79 were found. The majority of the population without AoS was male (85%), whereas in the population with AoS this was evenly distributed (54% males). Age was significantly (5 years, p < 0.001) higher in the population with AoS. In the present study, we developed a novel model able to distinguish no to mild AoS from moderate to severe AoS, based on blood pressure features with high accuracy. Clinical registration number: The study entailing patients with TAVR treatment was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03088787, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03088787 ). The study with elective cardiac surgery patients was registered with the Netherland Trial Register (NL7810, https://trialsearch.who.int/Trial2.aspx?TrialID=NL7810 ).

Correlation between Serum Biomarkers and Lung Ultrasound in COVID-19: An Observational Study.

Serum biomarkers and lung ultrasound are important measures for prognostication and treatment allocation in patients with COVID-19. Currently, there is a paucity of studies investigating relationships between serum biomarkers and ultrasonographic biomarkers derived from lung ultrasound. This study aims to assess correlations between serum biomarkers and lung ultrasound findings. This study is a secondary analysis of four prospective observational studies in adult patients with COVID-19. Serum biomarkers included markers of epithelial injury, endothelial dysfunction and immune activation. The primary outcome was the correlation between biomarker concentrations and lung ultrasound score assessed with Pearson's (r) or Spearman's (rs) correlations. Forty-four patients (67 [41-88] years old, 25% female, 52% ICU patients) were included. GAS6 (rs = 0.39), CRP (rs = 0.42) and SP-D (rs = 0.36) were correlated with lung ultrasound scores. ANG-1 (rs = -0.39) was inversely correlated with lung ultrasound scores. No correlations were found between lung ultrasound score and several other serum biomarkers. In patients with COVID-19, several serum biomarkers of epithelial injury, endothelial dysfunction and immune activation correlated with lung ultrasound findings. The lack of correlations with certain biomarkers could offer opportunities for precise prognostication and targeted therapeutic interventions by integrating these unlinked biomarkers.

Performance of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Hypotension in Spontaneously Breathing Non-Ventilated Post-Anesthesia and ICU Patients.

Background: Hypotension is common in the post-anesthesia care unit (PACU) and intensive care unit (ICU), and is associated with adverse patient outcomes. The Hypotension Prediction Index (HPI) algorithm has been shown to accurately predict hypotension in mechanically ventilated patients in the OR and ICU and to reduce intraoperative hypotension (IOH). Since positive pressure ventilation significantly affects patient hemodynamics, we performed this validation study to examine the performance of the HPI algorithm in a non-ventilated PACU and ICU population. Materials & Methods: The performance of the HPI algorithm was assessed using prospectively collected blood pressure (BP) and HPI data from a PACU and a mixed ICU population. Recordings with sufficient time (≥3 h) spent without mechanical ventilation were selected using data from the electronic medical record. All HPI values were evaluated for sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, and time-to-event, and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed. Results: BP and HPI data from 282 patients were eligible for analysis, of which 242 (86%) were ICU patients. The mean age (standard deviation) was 63 (13.5) years, and 186 (66%) of the patients were male. Overall, the HPI predicted hypotension accurately, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.94. The most used HPI threshold cutoff in research and clinical use, 85, showed a sensitivity of 1.00, specificity of 0.79, median time-to-event of 160 s [60-380], PPV of 0.85, and NPV of 1.00. Conclusion: The absence of positive pressure ventilation and the influence thereof on patient hemodynamics does not negatively affect the performance of the HPI algorithm in predicting hypotension in the PACU and ICU. Future research should evaluate the feasibility and influence on hypotension and outcomes following HPI implementation in non-ventilated patients at risk of hypotension.

The pathophysiology of sepsis and precision-medicine-based immunotherapy.

Sepsis remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in both low- and high-income countries. Antibiotic therapy and supportive care have significantly improved survival following sepsis in the twentieth century, but further progress has been challenging. Immunotherapy trials for sepsis, mainly aimed at suppressing the immune response, from the 1990s and 2000s, have largely failed, in part owing to unresolved patient heterogeneity in the underlying immune disbalance. The past decade has brought the promise to break this blockade through technological developments based on omics-based technologies and systems medicine that can provide a much larger data space to describe in greater detail the immune endotypes in sepsis. Patient stratification opens new avenues towards precision medicine approaches that aim to apply immunotherapies to sepsis, on the basis of precise biomarkers and molecular mechanisms defining specific immune endotypes. This approach has the potential to lead to the establishment of immunotherapy as a successful pillar in the treatment of sepsis for future generations.

Contemporary management of major haemorrhage in critical care.

Haemorrhagic shock is frequent in critical care settings and responsible for a high mortality rate due to multiple organ dysfunction and coagulopathy. The management of critically ill patients with bleeding and shock is complex, and treatment of these patients must be rapid and definitive. The administration of large volumes of blood components leads to major physiological alterations which must be mitigated during and after bleeding. Early recognition of bleeding and coagulopathy, understanding the underlying pathophysiology related to specific disease states, and the development of individualised management protocols are important for optimal outcomes. This review describes the contemporary understanding of the pathophysiology of various types of coagulopathic bleeding; the diagnosis and management of critically ill bleeding patients, including major haemorrhage protocols and post-transfusion management; and finally highlights recent areas of opportunity to better understand optimal management strategies for managing bleeding in the intensive care unit (ICU).

Hypotension during intensive care stay and mortality and morbidity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study is to provide a summary of the existing literature on the association between hypotension during intensive care unit (ICU) stay and mortality and morbidity, and to assess whether there is an exposure-severity relationship between hypotension exposure and patient outcomes. METHODS: CENTRAL, Embase, and PubMed were searched up to October 2022 for articles that reported an association between hypotension during ICU stay and at least one of the 11 predefined outcomes. Two independent reviewers extracted the data and assessed the risk of bias. Results were gathered in a summary table and studies designed to investigate the hypotension-outcome relationship were included in the meta-analyses. RESULTS: A total of 122 studies (176,329 patients) were included, with the number of studies varying per outcome between 0 and 82. The majority of articles reported associations in favor of 'no hypotension' for the outcomes mortality and acute kidney injury (AKI), and the strength of the association was related to the severity of hypotension in the majority of studies. Using meta-analysis, a significant association was found between hypotension and mortality (odds ratio: 1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12-1.88; based on 13 studies and 34,829 patients), but not for AKI. CONCLUSION: Exposure to hypotension during ICU stay was associated with increased mortality and AKI in the majority of included studies, and associations for both outcomes increased with increasing hypotension severity. The meta-analysis reinforced the descriptive findings regarding mortality but did not yield similar support for AKI.

The alveolar fibroproliferative response in moderate to severe COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome and 1-yr follow-up.

COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) can lead to long-term pulmonary fibrotic lesions. Alveolar fibroproliferative response (FPR) is a key factor in the development of pulmonary fibrosis. N-terminal peptide of procollagen III (NT-PCP-III) is a validated biomarker for activated FPR in ARDS. This study aimed to assess the association between dynamic changes in alveolar FPR and long-term outcomes, as well as mortality in COVID-19 ARDS patients. We conducted a prospective cohort study of 154 COVID-19 ARDS patients. We collected bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) and blood samples for measurement of 17 pulmonary fibrosis biomarkers, including NT-PCP-III. We assessed pulmonary function and chest computed tomography (CT) at 3 and 12 mo after hospital discharge. We performed joint modeling to assess the association between longitudinal changes in biomarker levels and mortality at day 90 after starting mechanical ventilation. 154 patients with 284 BAL samples were analyzed. Of all patients, 40% survived to day 90, of whom 54 completed the follow-up procedure. A longitudinal increase in NT-PCP-III was associated with increased mortality (HR 2.89, 95% CI: 2.55-3.28; P < 0.001). Forced vital capacity and diffusion for carbon monoxide were impaired at 3 mo but improved significantly at one year after hospital discharge (P = 0.03 and P = 0.004, respectively). There was no strong evidence linking alveolar FPR during hospitalization and signs of pulmonary fibrosis in pulmonary function or chest CT images during 1-yr follow-up. In COVID-19 ARDS patients, alveolar FPR during hospitalization was associated with higher mortality but not with the presence of long-term fibrotic lung sequelae within survivors.NEW & NOTEWORTHY This is the first prospective study on the longitudinal alveolar fibroproliferative response in COVID-19 ARDS and its relationship with mortality and long-term follow-up. We used the largest cohort of COVID-19 ARDS patients who had consecutive bronchoalveolar lavages and measured 17 pulmonary fibroproliferative biomarkers. We found that a higher fibroproliferative response during admission was associated with increased mortality, but not correlated with long-term fibrotic lung sequelae in survivors.