Diagnosis of Early Bacterial Pneumonia and Sepsis After Cardiovascular Surgery: A Diagnostic Prediction Model Based on LASSO Logistic Regression.

Background: Early postoperative bacterial pneumonia and sepsis (ePOPS), which occurs within the first 48 hours after cardiovascular surgery, is a serious life-threatening complication. Diagnosis of ePOPS is extremely challenging, and the existing diagnostic tools are insufficient. The purpose of this study was to construct a novel diagnostic prediction model for ePOPS. Methods: Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) with logistic regression was used to construct a model to diagnose ePOPS based on patients' comorbidities, medical history, and laboratory findings. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the model discrimination. Results: A total of 1203 patients were recruited and randomly split into a training and validation set in a 7:3 ratio. By early morning on the 3rd postoperative day (POD3), 103 patients had experienced 133 episodes of bacterial pneumonia or sepsis (15 patients had both). LASSO logistic regression model showed that duration of mechanical ventilation (P=0.015), NYHA class ≥ III (P=0.001), diabetes (P<0.001), exudation on chest radiograph (P=0.011) and IL-6 on POD3 (P<0.001) were independent risk factors. Based on these factors, we created a nomogram named DICS-I with an AUC of 0.787 in the training set and 0.739 in the validation set. Conclusion: The DICS-I model may be used to predict the risk of ePOPS after cardiovascular surgery, and is also especially suitable for predicting the risk of IRAO. The DICS-I model could help clinicians to adjust antibiotics on the POD3.

Residual Risk in Non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome: Quantitative Plaque Analysis at Coronary CT Angiography.

Background Lipid-rich plaques detected with intravascular imaging are associated with adverse cardiovascular events in patients with non-ST-segment elevation (NSTE) acute coronary syndrome (ACS). But evidence about the prognostic implication of coronary CT angiography (CCTA) in NSTE ACS is limited. Purpose To assess whether quantitative variables at CCTA that reflect lipid content in nonrevascularized plaques in individuals with NSTE ACS might be predictors of subsequent nonrevascularized plaque-related major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). Materials and Methods In this multicenter prospective cohort study, from November 2017 to January 2019, individuals diagnosed with NSTE ACS (excluding those at very high risk) were enrolled and underwent CCTA before invasive coronary angiography (ICA) within 1 day. Lipid core was defined as areas with attenuation less than 30 HU in plaques. MACEs were defined as cardiac death, myocardial infarction, hospitalization for unstable angina, and revascularization. Participants were followed up at 6 months, 12 months, and annually thereafter for at least 3 years (ending by July 2022). Multivariable analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression models was performed to determine the association between lipid core burden, lipid core volume, and future nonrevascularized plaque-related MACEs at both the participant and plaque levels. Results A total of 342 participants (mean age, 57.9 years ± 11.1 [SD]; 263 male) were included for analysis with a median follow-up period of 4.0 years (IQR, 3.6-4.4 years). The 4-year nonrevascularized plaque-related MACE rate was 23.9% (95% CI: 19.1, 28.5). Lipid core burden (hazard ratio [HR], 12.6; 95% CI: 4.6, 34.3) was an independent predictor at the participant level, with an optimum threshold of 2.8%. Lipid core burden (HR, 12.1; 95% CI: 6.6, 22.3) and volume (HR, 11.0; 95% CI: 6.5, 18.4) were independent predictors at the plaque level, with an optimum threshold of 7.2% and 10.1 mm3, respectively. Conclusion In NSTE ACS, quantitative analysis of plaque lipid content at CCTA independently predicted participants and plaques at higher risk for future nonrevascularized plaque-related MACEs. Chinese Clinical Trial Registry no. ChiCTR1800018661 © RSNA, 2023 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Tavakoli and Duman in this issue.

The low-dose colchicine in patients after non-CABG cardiac surgery: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Recent high-quality trials have shown that the anti-inflammatory effects of colchicine reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients suffering post-myocardial infarction and chronic coronary disease. The effect of colchicine in patients undergoing non-coronary artery bypass grafting (non-CABG) with cardiopulmonary bypass remains unclear. We aim to evaluate the effect of colchicine on myocardial protection in patients who underwent non-CABG cardiac surgery. METHOD: Patients were randomly assigned to colchicine or placebo groups starting 72 h before scheduled cardiac surgery and for 5 days thereafter (0.5 mg daily).The primary outcome was the level of cardiac troponin T (cTnT) at postoperative 48 h. The secondary outcomes included troponin I (cTnI) and creatine kinase-MB (CK-MB), inflammatory biomarkers (procalcitonin and interleukin-6, etc.), and adverse events (30-day mortality, stroke, ECMO and IABP use, etc.). RESULTS: A total of 132 patients underwent non-CAGB cardiac surgery, 11were excluded because of diarrhea (n = 6) and long aortic cross-clamp time > 2 h (n = 5), 59 were assigned to the colchicine group and 62 to the placebo group. Compared with the placebo group, cTnT (median: 0.3 µg/L, IQR 0.2-0.4 µg/L vs. median: 0.4 µg/L, IQR 0.3-0.6 µg/L, P < 0.01), cardiac troponin I (median: 0.9 ng/ml, IQR 0.4-1.7 ng/ml vs. median: 1.3 ng/ml, IQR 0.6-2.3 ng/ml, P = 0.02), CK-MB (median: 1.9 ng/ml, IQR 0.7-3.2 ng/ml vs. median: 4.4 ng/ml, IQR 1.5-8.2 ng/ml, P < 0.01), and interleukin-6 (median: 73.5 pg/ml, IQR 49.6-125.8 pg/ml vs. median: 101 pg/ml, IQR 57.5-164.7 pg/ml, P = 0.048) were significantly reduced in colchicine group at postoperative 48 h. For safety evaluation, the colchicine (n = 65) significantly decreased post-pericardiotomy syndrome (3.08% vs. 17.7%, P < 0.01) and increased the rate of diarrhea (9.23% vs. 0, P = 0.01) compared with the placebo group (n = 62). No significant difference was observed in other adverse events between the two groups. CONCLUSION: A short perioperative course of low-dose colchicine was effective to attenuate the postoperative biomarkers of myocardial injury and inflammation, and to decrease the postoperative syndrome compared with the placebo. Trial registration ChiCTR2000040129. Registered 22nd Nov. 2020. This trial was registered before the first participant was enrolled. http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=64370 .

Diagnosis of infection after cardiovascular surgery (DICS): a study protocol for developing and validating a prediction model in prospective observational study.

INTRODUCTION: Postoperative infection (PI) is one of the main severe complications after cardiovascular surgery. Therefore, antibiotics are routinely used during the first 48 hours after cardiovascular surgery. However, there is no effective method for early diagnosis of infection after cardiovascular surgery, particularly, to determine whether postoperative patients need to prolong the use of antibiotics after the first 48 hours. In this study, we aim to develop and validate a diagnostic model to help identify whether a patient has been infected after surgery and guide the appropriate use of antibiotics. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: In this prospective study, we will develop and validate a diagnostic model to determine whether the patient has a bacterial infection within 48 hours after cardiovascular surgery. Baseline data will be collected through the electronic medical record system. A total of 2700 participants will be recruited (n=2000 for development, n=700 for validation). The primary outcome of the study is the newly PI during the first 48 hours after cardiovascular surgery. Logistic regression penalised with elastic net regularisation will be used for model development and bootstrap and k-fold cross-validation aggregation will be performed for internal validation. The derived model will be also externally validated in patients who are continuously included in another time period (N=700). We will evaluate the calibration and differentiation performance of the model by Hosmer-Lemeshow good of fit test and the area under the curve, respectively. We will report sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value in the validation data-set, with a target of 80% sensitivity. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained from Medical Ethics Committee of Affiliated Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Nanjing University Medical College (2020-249-01). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Chinese Clinical Trial Register (www.chictr.org.cn, ChiCTR2000038762); Pre-results.

Long-term Outcomes of Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with Second-generation Drug-eluting Stents in ST-elevation Myocardial Infarction Patients Caused by Very Late Stent Thrombosis.

BACKGROUND: The ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients due to stent thrombosis (ST) remain a therapeutic challenge for a clinician. Till date, very few researches have been conducted regarding the safety and effectiveness of primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with second-generation drug-eluting stents (DES) for STEMI caused by very late ST (VLST). This retrospective study evaluated the safety, efficacy, and outcomes of primary PCI with second-generation DES for STEMI due to VLST compared with primary PCI for STEMI due to de novo lesion. METHODS: Between January 2007 and December 2013, STEMI patients with primary PCI in Fuwai Hospital had only second-generation DES implanted for de novo lesion (558 patients) and VLST (50 patients) were included in this retrospective study. The primary end points included cardiac death and reinfarction. The secondary end points included cardiac death, reinfarction, and target lesion revascularization. Continuous variables were expressed as mean (standard deviation) or median (interquartile range) and compared by Student's t- test or Mann-Whitney U-test as appropriate. Categorical variables were expressed as counts and percentages, and comparison of these variables was performed with Chi-square or Fisher's exact test. A two-tailed value of P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant for all comparisons. Statistical analyses were performed by SAS software (version 9.4, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, USA) for Windows. RESULTS: In-hospital primary end point and the secondary end point were no significant differences between two groups (P = 1.000 and P = 1.000, respectively). No significant differences between two groups were observed according to the long-term primary end point and the secondary end point. Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed no significant difference between the two groups in the primary end point and the secondary end point at 2 years (P = 0.340 and P = 0.243, respectively). According to Cox analysis, female, intra-aortic balloon pump support, and postprocedural thrombolysis in myocardial infarction flow 3 were found to be independent predictors for long-term follow-up. CONCLUSION: Primary PCI with second-generation DES is a reasonable choice for STEMI patients caused by VLST.

Prognostic Value of the Clinical SYNTAX Score on 2-Year Outcomes in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome Who Underwent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

This prospective, single-center, observational study evaluated prognostic value of clinical SYNTAX score (CSS) on 2-year outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The SYNTAX score (SS) is a scoring system based on the complexity and severity of coronary lesions and is thought to be a prognostic tool to predict long-term outcomes. However, SS was a sole angiographic grading tool only with no consideration for clinical factors. There are few studies investigating the prognostic value of CSS in patients with ACS who underwent PCI. From January 2013 to December 2013, 6,099 consecutive patients with ACS admitted to FuWai hospital and underwent PCI were enrolled in this study. Based on CSS, patients were divided into low CSS group (CSS ≤ 6.5; 2,012 patients), mid-CSS group (6.5 < CSS < 13.8; 2,056 patients), and high CSS group (CSS ≥ 13.8; 2,031 patients). At 2-year follow-up, rates of cardiac death and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were significantly higher in the high CSS group. Compared with baseline SS, CSS demonstrated significantly improved performance for 2-year cardiac death (receiver-operating characteristic curve C-statistic: 0.74 vs 0.62, p <0.001) but not for MACE (receiver-operating characteristic curve C-statistic: 0.60 vs 0.59, p = 0.29). By multivariable analysis, the CSS combined with PCI history and hypertension were strong predictors for cardiac death and CSS, intra-aortic balloon pump support, diabetes, and successful PCI were independent predictors for MACE. In conclusion, compared with the anatomic SS, CSS was suitable in risk stratifying and predicting 2-year clinical outcome among ACS population.

Effect of coronary dominance on 2-year outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute coronary syndrome.

OBJECTIVES: This retrospective, single-center, observational analysis from prospectively collected database evaluated whether left dominance affected the long-term outcomes of acute coronary syndrome patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention, and whether the effect was independent of SYNTAX score. BACKGROUND: Left dominance is believed to be associated with worse prognoses. The anatomical SYNTAX score is a scoring system based on the complexity and severity of coronary lesions and is thought to be a prognostic tool to predict short- and long-term outcomes. There are few studies about whether the effect of left dominance is independent of SYNTAX score. METHODS: Between January 2013 and December 2013, 6255 consecutive acute coronary syndrome patients who were admitted to Fuwai hospital and underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) were enrolled in this study. Based on coronary dominance and the calculation methods of the SYNTAX score, patients were divided into a left-dominant group (LD group; 390 patients) and a right-dominant or co-dominant group (RD + Co group, 5865 patients). RESULT: The 2-year mortality rate was significantly higher in the LD group than in the RD + Co group (2.58% vs. 1.23%, P = 0.024). In multivariate Cox analysis, the independent predictors of mortality were coronary dominance, IABP support, age, baseline SYNTAX score, and ejection fraction. CONCLUSIONS: LD was an independent predictor of long-term mortality in ACS patients undergoing PCI. The effect of LD still existed after adjustment for several important variables and was independent of SYNTAX score. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.