Regional and temporal variations in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Ethiopia: Lessons learned from the COVID-19 enhanced surveillance and response.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most devastating public health emergencies of international concern to have occurred in the past century. To ensure a safe, scalable, and sustainable response, it is imperative to understand the burden of disease, epidemiological trends, and responses to activities that have already been implemented. We aimed to analyze how COVID-19 tests, cases, and deaths varied by time and region in the general population and healthcare workers (HCWs) in Ethiopia. METHODS: COVID-19 data were captured between October 01, 2021, and September 30, 2022, in 64 systematically selected health facilities throughout Ethiopia. The number of health facilities included in the study was proportionally allocated to the regional states of Ethiopia. Data were captured by standardized tools and formats. Analysis of COVID-19 testing performed, cases detected, and deaths registered by region and time was carried out. RESULTS: We analyzed 215,024 individuals' data that were captured through COVID-19 surveillance in Ethiopia. Of the 215,024 total tests, 18,964 COVID-19 cases (8.8%, 95% CI: 8.7%- 9.0%) were identified and 534 (2.8%, 95% CI: 2.6%- 3.1%) were deceased. The positivity rate ranged from 1% in the Afar region to 15% in the Sidama region. Eight (1.2%, 95% CI: 0.4%- 2.0%) HCWs died out of 664 infected HCWs, of which 81.5% were from Addis Ababa. Three waves of outbreaks were detected during the analysis period, with the highest positivity rate of 35% during the Omicron period and the highest rate of ICU beds and mechanical ventilators (38%) occupied by COVID-19 patients during the Delta period. CONCLUSIONS: The temporal and regional variations in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Ethiopia underscore the need for concerted efforts to address the disparities in the COVID-19 surveillance and response system. These lessons should be critically considered during the integration of the COVID-19 surveillance system into the routine surveillance system.

Evaluation of Ethiopia's field epidemiology training program - frontline: perspectives of implementing partners.

BACKGROUND: Field Epidemiology Training Program (FETP) has been adopted as an epidemiology and response capacity building strategy worldwide. FETP-Frontline was introduced in Ethiopia in 2017 as a three-month in-service training. In this study, we evaluated implementing partners' perspectives with the aim of understanding program effectiveness and identifying challenges and recommendations for improvement. METHODS: A qualitative cross-sectional design was utilized to evaluate Ethiopia's FETP-Frontline. Using a descriptive phenomenological approach, qualitative data were collected from FETP-Frontline implementing partners, including regional, zonal, and district health offices across Ethiopia. We collected data through in-person key informant interviews, using semi-structured questionnaires. Thematic analysis was conducted, assisted with MAXQDA, while ensuring interrater reliability by using the consistent application of theme categorization. The major themes that emerged were program effectiveness, knowledge and skills differences between trained and untrained officers, program challenges, and recommended actions for improvement. Ethical approval was obtained from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute. Informed written consent was obtained from all participants, and confidentiality of the data was maintained throughout. RESULTS: A total of 41 interviews were conducted with key informants from FETP-Frontline implementing partners. The regional and zonal level experts and mentors had a Master of Public Health (MPH), whereas district health managers were Bachelor of Science (BSc) holders. Majority of the respondents reflected a positive perception towards FETP-Frontline. Regional and zonal officers as well as mentors mentioned that there were observable performance differences between trained and untrained district surveillance officers. They also identified various challenges including lack of resources for transportation, budget constraints for field projects, inadequate mentorship, high staff turnover, limited number of staff at the district level, lack of continued support from stakeholders, and the need for refresher training for FETP-Frontline graduates. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing partners reflected a positive perception towards FETP-Frontline in Ethiopia. In addition to scaling-up the program to reach all districts to achieve the International Health Regulation 2005 goals, the program also needs to consider addressing immediate challenges, primarily lack of resources and poor mentorship. Continued monitoring of the program, refresher training, and career path development could improve retention of the trained workforce.

Risk Factors for Ebola Virus Persistence in Semen of Survivors in Liberia.

BACKGROUND: Long-term persistence of Ebola virus (EBOV) in immunologically privileged sites has been implicated in recent outbreaks of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo. This study was designed to understand how the acute course of EVD, convalescence, and host immune and genetic factors may play a role in prolonged viral persistence in semen. METHODS: A cohort of 131 male EVD survivors in Liberia were enrolled in a case-case study. "Early clearers" were defined as those with 2 consecutive negative EBOV semen test results by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) ≥2 weeks apart within 1 year after discharge from the Ebola treatment unit or acute EVD. "Late clearers" had detectable EBOV RNA by rRT-PCR >1 year after discharge from the Ebola treatment unit or acute EVD. Retrospective histories of their EVD clinical course were collected by questionnaire, followed by complete physical examinations and blood work. RESULTS: Compared with early clearers, late clearers were older (median, 42.5 years; P < .001) and experienced fewer severe clinical symptoms (median 2, P = .006). Late clearers had more lens opacifications (odds ratio, 3.9 [95% confidence interval, 1.1-13.3]; P = .03), after accounting for age, higher total serum immunoglobulin G3 (IgG3) titers (P = .005), and increased expression of the HLA-C*03:04 allele (0.14 [.02-.70]; P = .007). CONCLUSIONS: Older age, decreased illness severity, elevated total serum IgG3 and HLA-C*03:04 allele expression may be risk factors for the persistence of EBOV in the semen of EVD survivors. EBOV persistence in semen may also be associated with its persistence in other immunologically protected sites, such as the eye.

The Impact of Water Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) Improvements on Hand Hygiene at Two Liberian Hospitals during the Recovery Phase of an Ebola Epidemic.

Fourteen years of civil war left Liberia with crumbling infrastructure and one of the weakest health systems in the world. The 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak exposed the vulnerabilities of the Liberian health system. Findings from the EVD outbreak highlighted the lack of infection prevention and control (IPC) practices, exacerbated by a lack of essential services such as water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) in healthcare facilities. The objective of this intervention was to improve IPC practice through comprehensive WASH renovations conducted at two hospitals in Liberia, prioritized by the Ministry of Health (MOH). The completion of renovations was tracked along with the impact of improvements on hand hygiene (HH) practice audits of healthcare workers pre- and post-intervention. An occurrence of overall HH practice was defined as the healthcare worker practicing compliant HH before and after the care for a single patient encounter. Liberia Government Hospital Bomi (LGH Bomi) and St. Timothy Government Hospital (St. Timothy) achieved World Health Organization (WHO) minimum global standards for environmental health in healthcare facilities as well as Liberian national standards. Healthcare worker (HCW) overall hand hygiene compliance improved from 36% (2016) to 89% (2018) at LGH Bomi hospital and from 86% (2016) to 88% (2018) at St. Timothy hospital. Improved WASH services and IPC practices in resource-limited healthcare settings are possible if significant holistic WASH infrastructure investments are made in these settings.

Characteristics of Ebola Virus Disease Survivor Blood and Semen in Liberia: Serology and Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR).

INTRODUCTION: Ebola virus (EBOV), species Zaire ebolavirus, may persist in the semen of male survivors of Ebola virus disease (EVD). We conducted a study of male survivors of the 2014-2016 EVD outbreak in Liberia and evaluated their immune responses to EBOV. We report here findings from the serologic testing of blood for EBOV-specific antibodies, molecular testing for EBOV in blood and semen, and serologic testing of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) in a subset of study participants. METHODS: We tested for EBOV RNA in blood by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR), and for anti-EBOV-specific immunoglobulin M (IgM) and immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for 126 study participants. We performed PBMC analysis on a subgroup of 26 IgG-negative participants. RESULTS: All 126 participants tested negative for EBOV RNA in blood by qRT-PCR. The blood of 26 participants tested negative for EBOV-specific IgG antibodies by ELISA. PBMCs were collected from 23/26 EBOV IgG-negative participants. Of these, 1/23 participants had PBMCs that produced anti-EBOV-specific IgG antibodies upon stimulation with EBOV-specific glycoprotein (GP) and nucleoprotein (NP) antigens. CONCLUSIONS: The blood of EVD survivors, collected when they did not have symptoms meeting the case definition for acute or relapsed EVD, is unlikely to pose a risk for EBOV transmission. We identified 1 IgM/IgG negative participant who had PBMCs that produced anti-EBOV-specific antibodies upon stimulation. Immunogenicity following acute EBOV infection may exist along a spectrum, and absence of antibody response should not be exclusionary in determining an individual's status as a survivor of EVD.

Systems thinking for health emergencies: use of process mapping during outbreak response.

Process mapping is a systems thinking approach used to understand, analyse and optimise processes within complex systems. We aim to demonstrate how this methodology can be applied during disease outbreaks to strengthen response and health systems. Process mapping exercises were conducted during three unique emerging disease outbreak contexts with different: mode of transmission, size, and health system infrastructure. System functioning improved considerably in each country. In Sierra Leone, laboratory testing was accelerated from 6 days to within 24 hours. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, time to suspected case notification reduced from 7 to 3 days. In Nigeria, key data reached the national level in 48 hours instead of 5 days. Our research shows that despite the chaos and complexities associated with emerging pathogen outbreaks, the implementation of a process mapping exercise can address immediate response priorities while simultaneously strengthening components of a health system.

Long-distance effects of epidemics: Assessing the link between the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak and U.S. exports and employment.

Although the economic consequences of epidemic outbreaks to affected areas are often well documented, little is known about how these might carry over into the economies of unaffected regions. In the absence of direct pathogen transmission, global trade is one mechanism through which geographically distant epidemics could reverberate to unaffected countries. This study explores the link between global public health events and U.S. economic outcomes by evaluating the role of the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak in U.S. exports and exports-supported U.S. jobs, 2005-2016. Estimates were obtained using difference-in-differences models where sub-Saharan Africa countries were assigned to treatment and comparison groups based on their Ebola transmission status, with controls for observed and unobserved time-variant factors that may independently influence trends in trade. Multiple model specification checks were performed to ensure analytic robustness. The year of peak transmission, 2014, was estimated to result in $1.08 billion relative reduction in U.S. merchandise exports to Ebola-affected countries, whereas estimated losses in exports-supported U.S. jobs exceeded 1,200 in 2014 and 11,000 in 2015. These findings suggest that remote disruptions in health security might play a role in U.S. economic indicators, demonstrating the interconnectedness between global health and aspects of the global economy and informing the relevance of health security efforts.

Identifying High-Risk Individuals for Chronic Kidney Disease: Results of the CHERISH Community Demonstration Project.

BACKGROUND: Most people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are not aware of their condition. OBJECTIVES: To assess screening criteria in identifying a population with or at high risk for CKD and to determine their level of control of CKD risk factors. METHOD: CKD Health Evaluation Risk Information Sharing (CHERISH), a demonstration project of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, hosted screenings at 2 community locations in each of 4 states. People with diabetes, hypertension, or aged ≥50 years were eligible to participate. In addition to CKD, screening included testing and measures of hemoglobin A1C, blood pressure, and lipids. -Results: In this targeted population, among 894 people screened, CKD prevalence was 34%. Of participants with diabetes, 61% had A1C < 7%; of those with hypertension, 23% had blood pressure < 130/80 mm Hg; and of those with high cholesterol, 22% had low-density lipoprotein < 100 mg/dL. CONCLUSIONS: Using targeted selection criteria and simple clinical measures, CHERISH successfully identified a population with a high CKD prevalence and with poor control of CKD risk factors. CHERISH may prove helpful to state and local programs in implementing CKD detection programs in their communities.

Persistence of Ebola virus after the end of widespread transmission in Liberia: an outbreak report.

BACKGROUND: Outbreak response efforts for the 2014-15 Ebola virus disease epidemic in west Africa brought widespread transmission to an end. However, subsequent clusters of infection have occurred in the region. An Ebola virus disease cluster in Liberia in November, 2015, that was identified after a 15-year-old boy tested positive for Ebola virus infection in Monrovia, raised the possibility of transmission from a persistently infected individual. METHODS: Case investigations were done to ascertain previous contact with cases of Ebola virus disease or infection with Ebola virus. Molecular investigations on blood samples explored a potential linkage between Ebola virus isolated from cases in this November, 2015, cluster and epidemiologically linked cases from the 2014-15 west African outbreak, according to the national case database. FINDINGS: The cluster investigated was the family of the index case (mother, father, three siblings). Ebola virus genomes assembled from two cases in the November, 2015, cluster, and an epidemiologically linked Ebola virus disease case in July, 2014, were phylogenetically related within the LB5 sublineage that circulated in Liberia starting around August, 2014. Partial genomes from two additional individuals, one from each cluster, were also consistent with placement in the LB5 sublineage. Sequencing data indicate infection with a lineage of the virus from a former transmission chain in the country. Based on serology and epidemiological and genomic data, the most plausible scenario is that a female case in the November, 2015, cluster survived Ebola virus disease in 2014, had viral persistence or recurrent disease, and transmitted the virus to three family members a year later. INTERPRETATION: Investigation of the source of infection for the November, 2015, cluster provides evidence of Ebola virus persistence and highlights the risk for outbreaks after interruption of active transmission. These findings underscore the need for focused prevention efforts among survivors and sustained capacity to rapidly detect and respond to new Ebola virus disease cases to prevent recurrence of a widespread outbreak. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, and WHO.

Race/Ethnicity, Dietary Acid Load, and Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease among US Adults with Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: Dietary acid load (DAL) contributes to the risk of CKD and CKD progression. We sought to determine the relation of DAL to racial/ethnic differences in the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) among persons with CKD. METHODS: Among 1,123 non-Hispanic black (NHB) and non-Hispanic white (NHW) National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III participants with estimated glomerular filtration rate 15-59 mL/min/1.73 m2, DAL was estimated using the Remer and Manz net acid excretion (NAEes) formula and 24-h dietary recall. ESRD events were ascertained via linkage with Medicare. A competing risk model (accounting for death) was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for treated ESRD, comparing NHBs with NHWs, adjusting for demographic, clinical and nutritional factors (body surface area, total caloric intake, serum bicarbonate, protein intake), and NAEes. Additionally, whether the relation of NAEes with ESRD risk varied by race/ethnicity was tested. RESULTS: At baseline, NHBs had greater NAEes (50.9 vs. 44.2 mEq/day) than NHWs. It was found that 22% developed ESRD over a median of 7.5 years. The unadjusted HR comparing NHBs to NHWs was 3.35 (95% CI 2.51-4.48) and adjusted HR (for factors above) was 1.68 (95% CI 1.18-2.38). A stronger association of NAE with risk of ESRD was observed among NHBs (adjusted HR per mEq/day increase in NAE 1.21, 95% CI 1.12-1.31) than that among NHWs (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.96-1.20), p interaction for race/ethnicity × NAEes = 0.004. CONCLUSIONS: Among US adults with CKD, the association of DAL with progression to ESRD is stronger among NHBs than NHWs. DAL is worthy of further investigation for its contribution to kidney outcomes across race/ethnic groups.

Rapid Laboratory Identification of Neisseria meningitidis Serogroup C as the Cause of an Outbreak - Liberia, 2017.

On April 25, 2017, a cluster of unexplained illness and deaths among persons who had attended a funeral during April 21-22 was reported in Sinoe County, Liberia (1). Using a broad initial case definition, 31 cases were identified, including 13 (42%) deaths. Twenty-seven cases were from Sinoe County (1), and two cases each were from Grand Bassa and Monsterrado counties, respectively. On May 5, 2017, initial multipathogen testing of specimens from four fatal cases using the Taqman Array Card (TAC) assay identified Neisseria meningitidis in all specimens. Subsequent testing using direct real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) confirmed N. meningitidis in 14 (58%) of 24 patients with available specimens and identified N. meningitidis serogroup C (NmC) in 13 (54%) patients. N. meningitidis was detected in specimens from 11 of the 13 patients who died; no specimens were available from the other two fatal cases. On May 16, 2017, the National Public Health Institute of Liberia and the Ministry of Health of Liberia issued a press release confirming serogroup C meningococcal disease as the cause of this outbreak in Liberia.

Associations between persistent organic pollutants, type 2 diabetes, diabetic nephropathy and mortality.

OBJECTIVE: Relationships were examined between persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and incident type 2 diabetes, end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and mortality. METHODS: In a nested case-control study, 300 persons without diabetes had baseline examinations between 1969 and 1974; 149 developed diabetes (cases) and 151 remained non-diabetic (controls) during 8.0 and 23.1 years of follow-up, respectively. POPs were measured at baseline. ORs for diabetes were computed by logistic regression analysis. The cases were followed from diabetes onset to ESRD, death or 2013. HRs for ESRD and mortality were computed by cause-specific hazard models. Patterns of association were explored using principal components analysis. RESULTS: PCB151 increased the odds for incident diabetes, whereas hexachlorobenzene (HCB) was protective after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, sample storage characteristics, glucose and lipid levels. Associations between incident diabetes and polychlorinatedbiphenyl (PCB) or persistent pesticide (PST) components were mostly positive but non-significant. Among the cases, 29 developed ESRD and 48 died without ESRD. PCB28, PCB49 and PCB44 increased the risk of ESRD after adjusting for baseline demographic and clinical characteristics. Several PCBs and PSTs increased the risk of death without ESRD. The principal components analysis identified PCBs with low-chlorine load positively associated with ESRD and death without ESRD, and several PSTs associated with death without ESRD. CONCLUSIONS: Most POPs were positively but not significantly associated with incident diabetes. PCB151 was significantly predictive and HCB was significantly protective for diabetes. Among participants with diabetes, low-chlorine PCBs increase the risk of ESRD and death without ESRD, whereas several PSTs predict death without ESRD.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Anemia Treatment for Persons with Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: Although major guidelines uniformly recommend iron supplementation and erythropoietin stimulating agents (ESAs) for managing chronic anemia in persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD), there are differences in the recommended hemoglobin (Hb) treatment target and no guidelines consider the costs or cost-effectiveness of treatment. In this study, we explored the most cost-effective Hb target for anemia treatment in persons with CKD stages 3-4. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The CKD Health Policy Model was populated with a synthetic cohort of persons over age 30 with prevalent CKD stages 3-4 (i.e., not on dialysis) and anemia created from the 1999-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), computed as incremental cost divided by incremental quality adjusted life years (QALYs), were assessed for Hb targets of 10 g/dl to 13 g/dl at 0.5 g/dl increments. Targeting a Hb of 10 g/dl resulted in an ICER of $32,111 compared with no treatment and targeting a Hb of 10.5 g/dl resulted in an ICER of $32,475 compared with a Hb target of 10 g/dl. QALYs increased to 4.63 for a Hb target of 10 g/dl and to 4.75 for a target of 10.5 g/dl or 11 g/dl. Any treatment target above 11 g/dl increased medical costs and decreased QALYs. CONCLUSIONS: In persons over age 30 with CKD stages 3-4, anemia treatment is most cost-effective when targeting a Hb level of 10.5 g/dl. This study provides important information for framing guidelines related to treatment of anemia in persons with CKD.

Timing of Initiation of Maintenance Dialysis: A Qualitative Analysis of the Electronic Medical Records of a National Cohort of Patients From the Department of Veterans Affairs.

IMPORTANCE: There is often considerable uncertainty about the optimal time to initiate maintenance dialysis in individual patients and little medical evidence to guide this decision. OBJECTIVE: To gain a better understanding of the factors influencing the timing of initiation of dialysis in clinical practice. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A qualitative analysis was conducted using the electronic medical records from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) of a national random sample of 1691 patients for whom the decision to initiate maintenance dialysis occurred in the VA between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2009. Data analysis took place from June 1 to November 30, 2014. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Central themes related to the timing of initiation of dialysis as documented in patients' electronic medical records. RESULTS: Of the 1691 patients, 1264 (74.7%) initiated dialysis as inpatients and 1228 (72.6%) initiated dialysis with a hemodialysis catheter. Cohort members met with a nephrologist during an outpatient clinic visit a median of 3 times (interquartile range, 0-6) in the year prior to initiation of dialysis. The mean (SD) estimated glomerular filtration rate at the time of initiation for cohort members was 10.4 (5.7) mL/min/1.73 m(2). The timing of initiation of dialysis reflected the complex interplay of at least 3 interrelated and dynamic processes. The first was physician practices, which ranged from practices intended to prepare patients for dialysis to those intended to forestall the need for dialysis by managing the signs and symptoms of uremia with medical interventions. The second process was sources of momentum. Initiation of dialysis was often precipitated by clinical events involving acute illness or medical procedures. In these settings, the imperative to treat often seemed to override patient choice. The third process was patient-physician dynamics. Interactions between patients and physicians were sometimes adversarial, and physician recommendations to initiate dialysis sometimes seemed to conflict with patient priorities. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The initiation of maintenance dialysis reflects the care practices of individual physicians, sources of momentum for initiation of dialysis, interactions between patients and physicians, and the complex interplay of these dynamic processes over time. Our findings suggest opportunities to improve communication between patients and physicians and to better align these processes with patients' values, goals, and preferences.

Acute Kidney Injury Recovery Pattern and Subsequent Risk of CKD: An Analysis of Veterans Health Administration Data.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest an association between acute kidney injury (AKI) and long-term risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD), even following apparent renal recovery. Whether the pattern of renal recovery predicts kidney risk following AKI is unknown. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Patients in the Veterans Health Administration in 2011 hospitalized (> 24 hours) with at least 2 inpatient serum creatinine measurements, baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate > 60 mL/min/1.73 m², and no diagnosis of end-stage renal disease or non-dialysis-dependent CKD: 17,049 (16.3%) with and 87,715 without AKI. PREDICTOR: Pattern of recovery to creatinine level within 0.3 mg/dL of baseline after AKI: within 2 days (fast), in 3 to 10 days (intermediate), and no recovery by 10 days (slow or unknown). OUTCOME: CKD stage 3 or higher, defined as 2 outpatient estimated glomerular filtration rates < 60 mL/min/1.73m² at least 90 days apart or CKD diagnosis, dialysis therapy, or transplantation. MEASUREMENTS: Risk for CKD was modeled using modified Poisson regression and time to death-censored CKD was modeled using Cox proportional hazards regression, both stratified by AKI stage. RESULTS: Most patients' AKI episodes were stage 1 (91%) and 71% recovered within 2 days. At 1 year, 18.2% had developed CKD (AKI, 31.8%; non-AKI, 15.5%; P < 0.001). In stage 1, the adjusted relative risk ratios for CKD stage 3 or higher were 1.43 (95% CI, 1.39-1.48), 2.00 (95% CI, 1.88-2.12), and 2.65 (95% CI, 2.51-2.80) for fast, intermediate, and slow/unknown recovery. A similar pattern was observed in subgroup analyses incorporating albuminuria and sensitivity analysis of death-censored time to CKD. LIMITATIONS: Variable timing of follow-up and mostly male veteran cohort may limit generalizability. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who develop AKI during a hospitalization are at substantial risk for the development of CKD by 1 year following hospitalization and timing of AKI recovery is a strong predictor, even for the mildest forms of AKI.

Nephrology care prior to end-stage renal disease and outcomes among new ESRD patients in the USA.

BACKGROUND: Longer nephrology care before end-stage renal disease (ESRD) has been linked with better outcomes. METHODS: We investigated whether longer pre-end-stage renal disease (ESRD) nephrology care was associated with lower mortality at both the patient and state levels among 443 761 incident ESRD patients identified in the USA between 2006 and 2010. RESULTS: Overall, 33% of new ESRD patients had received no prior nephrology care, while 28% had received care for >12 months. At the patient level, predictors of >12 months of nephrology care included having health insurance, white race, younger age, diabetes, hypertension and US region. Longer pre-ESRD nephrology care was associated with lower first-year mortality (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.58 for >12 months versus no care; 95% confidence interval 0.57-0.59), higher albumin and hemoglobin, choice of peritoneal dialysis and native fistula and discussion of transplantation options. Living in a state with a 10% higher proportion of patients receiving >12 months of pre-ESRD care was associated with a 9.3% lower relative mortality rate, standardized for case mix (R (2) = 0.47; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study represents the largest cohort of incident ESRD patients to date. Although we did not follow patients before ESRD onset, our findings, both at the individual patient and state levels, reflect the importance of early nephrology care among those with chronic kidney disease.

Molecular Evidence of Sexual Transmission of Ebola Virus.

A suspected case of sexual transmission from a male survivor of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to his female partner (the patient in this report) occurred in Liberia in March 2015. Ebola virus (EBOV) genomes assembled from blood samples from the patient and a semen sample from the survivor were consistent with direct transmission. The genomes shared three substitutions that were absent from all other Western African EBOV sequences and that were distinct from the last documented transmission chain in Liberia before this case. Combined with epidemiologic data, the genomic analysis provides evidence of sexual transmission of EBOV and evidence of the persistence of infective EBOV in semen for 179 days or more after the onset of EVD. (Funded by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and others.).

Potential Impact of Prescribing Metformin According to eGFR Rather Than Serum Creatinine.

OBJECTIVE: Many societies recommend using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) rather than serum creatinine (sCr) to determine metformin eligibility. We examined the potential impact of these recommendations on metformin eligibility among U.S. adults. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Metformin eligibility was assessed among 3,902 adults with diabetes who participated in the 1999-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys and reported routine access to health care, using conventional sCr thresholds (eligible if <1.4 mg/dL for women and <1.5 mg/dL for men) and eGFR categories: likely safe, ≥45 mL/min/1.73 m(2); contraindicated, <30 mL/min/1.73 m(2); and indeterminate, 30-44 mL/min/1.73 m(2)). Different eGFR equations were used: four-variable MDRD, Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) creatinine (CKD-EPIcr), and CKD-EPI cystatin C, as well as Cockcroft-Gault (CG) to estimate creatinine clearance (CrCl). Diabetes was defined by self-report or A1C ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol). We used logistic regression to identify populations for whom metformin was likely safe adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, and sex. Results were weighted to the U.S. adult population. RESULTS: Among adults with sCr above conventional cutoffs, MDRD eGFR ≥45 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was most common among men (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 33.3 [95% CI 7.4-151.5] vs. women) and non-Hispanic Blacks (aOR vs. whites 14.8 [4.27-51.7]). No individuals with sCr below conventional cutoffs had an MDRD eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m(2). All estimating equations expanded the population of individuals for whom metformin is likely safe, ranging from 86,900 (CKD-EPIcr) to 834,800 (CG). All equations identified larger populations with eGFR 30-44 mL/min/1.73 m(2), for whom metformin safety is indeterminate, ranging from 784,700 (CKD-EPIcr) to 1,636,000 (CG). CONCLUSIONS: The use of eGFR or CrCl to determine metformin eligibility instead of sCr can expand the adult population with diabetes for whom metformin is likely safe, particularly among non-Hispanic blacks and men.

Trends in Emergency Department Visit Rates for Hypoglycemia and Hyperglycemic Crisis among Adults with Diabetes, United States, 2006-2011.

BACKGROUND: Despite concerns about hypoglycemia events from overly aggressive glycemic reduction, population trends in hypoglycemia and hyperglycemic crisis incidence are unclear. To address this gap, we examined changes in emergency department (ED) visit rates for hypoglycemia and hyperglycemic crisis 2006-2011. METHODS: Using data from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample, we estimated the number of ED visits for hypoglycemia and hyperglycemic crisis via ICD-9-CM among adults with diabetes. Using data from the National Health Interview Survey, we estimated the population of adults with diabetes and calculated ED visit rates. RESULTS: From 2006 to 2011, ED visit rates for hypoglycemia declined by 22% from 1.8 to 1.4 per 100 adults (p = 0.003). The rates decreased in all age groups (all P<0.05) except those aged 18 to 44 years (P = 0.31). Hypoglycemia rates displayed a J-shaped curve across age, with the highest rates among adults aged 75 years or older (P <0.001). ED visit rates for hyperglycemic crisis did not change overall but increased 17% for adults aged 65 to 74 years (P = 0.02) and 29% for women (P = 0.01). Hyperglycemic crisis rates were highest among adults aged 18 to 44 years (P <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Hypoglycemia rates have declined for all adults but persons aged 18-44 years while rates for hyperglycemic crisis remained stable. Future preventive efforts should target on the susceptible population of adults aged 18 to 44 years and those aged 75 years or older.