Performance analysis of mathematical methods used to forecast the 2022 New York City Mpox outbreak.

In mid-2022, New York City (NYC) became the epicenter of the US mpox outbreak. We provided real-time mpox case forecasts to the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene to aid in outbreak response. Forecasting methodologies evolved as the epidemic progressed. Initially, lacking knowledge of at-risk population size, we used exponential growth models to forecast cases. Once exponential growth slowed, we used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Retrospectively, we explored if forecasts could have been improved using an SEIR model in place of our early exponential growth model, with or without knowing the case detection rate. Early forecasts from exponential growth models performed poorly, as 2-week mean absolute error (MAE) grew from 53 cases/week (July 1-14) to 457 cases/week (July 15-28). However, when exponential growth slowed, providing insight into susceptible population size, an SEIR model was able to accurately predict the remainder of the outbreak (7-week MAE: 13.4 cases/week). Retrospectively, we found there was not enough known about the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak to parameterize an SEIR model early on. However, if the at-risk population and case detection rate were known, an SEIR model could have improved accuracy over exponential growth models early in the outbreak.

Usefulness of an interprofessional work manual for perioperative glucose control of an artificial pancreas.

BACKGROUND: A closed-loop bedside-type artificial pancreas for perioperative glucose control has previously been introduced. However, artificial pancreas therapy was often interrupted due to continuous blood sampling failure. We developed an interprofessional work manual to reduce the interruption time of artificial pancreatic therapy for perioperative blood glucose control due to continuous blood sampling failure. This study aimed to investigate the usefulness of this manual. METHODS: The manual consisted of the following sections: (1) the roles of the professionals in the preparation and management of the artificial pancreas, (2) how to address continuous blood sampling failure, and (3) checkpoints for interprofessional transfer of the artificial pancreas. We compared the results before the introduction of the manual and 2 years after the introduction of the manual. RESULTS: There were 35 and 37 patients in the Before and After groups, respectively. There were no significant differences in patient backgrounds between the two groups, although there was significantly less blood loss in the After group (1164 vs. 366 mL; p < 0.001). The mean artificial pancreas therapy and artificial pancreas therapy interruption times were 847 min and 20 min, respectively. Artificial pancreas therapy interruption time (34 vs. 8 min; p = 0.078) and time per interruption (24 vs. 4 min; p < 0.001) were significantly shorter in the After group than in the Before group. CONCLUSIONS: The interprofessional working manual was useful in reducing the artificial pancreatic therapy interruption time for perioperative glucose control.

Zinc and manganese homeostasis closely interact in mammalian cells.

Understanding the homeostatic interactions among essential trace metals is important for explaining their roles in cellular systems. Recent studies in vertebrates suggest that cellular Mn metabolism is related to Zn metabolism in multifarious cellular processes. However, the underlying mechanism remains unclear. In this study, we examined the changes in the expression of proteins involved in cellular Zn and/or Mn homeostatic control and measured the Mn as well as Zn contents and Zn enzyme activities to elucidate the effects of Mn and Zn homeostasis on each other. Mn treatment decreased the expression of the Zn homeostatic proteins metallothionein (MT) and ZNT1 and reduced Zn enzyme activities, which were attributed to the decreased Zn content. Moreover, loss of Mn efflux transport protein decreased MT and ZNT1 expression and Zn enzyme activity without changing extracellular Mn content. This reduction was not observed when supplementing with the same Cu concentrations and in cells lacking Cu efflux proteins. Furthermore, cellular Zn homeostasis was oppositely regulated in cells expressing Zn and Mn importer ZIP8, depending on whether Zn or Mn concentration was elevated in the extracellular milieu. Our results provide novel insights into the intricate interactions between Mn and Zn homeostasis in mammalian cells and facilitate our understanding of the physiopathology of Mn, which may lead to the development of treatment strategies for Mn-related diseases in the future.

Sustained remission after cord blood transplantation for breast cancer with lung metastases and myelodysplastic syndrome.

Allogenic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) is not a standard therapy for solid cancer because of its high toxicity and insufficient evidence levels. However, the potential graft-versus-solid-tumor (GVT) effect of this therapy has been discussed. Many case reports have also described treatment effects of allo-HSCT in patients with hematologic malignancies and active solid tumors. A 38-year-old woman treated with fulvestrant and abemaciclib for recurrent breast cancer with multiple lung metastases was diagnosed with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) with increased blasts 2. She was classified as adverse risk by the 2017 European LeukemiaNet risk stratification and as very high risk by the Molecular International Prognostic Scoring System. Breast cancer treatment was interrupted and venetoclax and azacitidine therapy was started. Complete hematologic response was achieved after three cycles. However, multiple lung metastases from the breast cancer remained. The patient then underwent umbilical cord blood transplantation. She has maintained complete remission of MDS as of 1 year post-transplantation, without serious complications. Lung metastatic activity on FDG-PET/CT scan also completely disappeared by half a year post-transplantation, and this response has continued as of 1 year post-transplantation. This favorable treatment course suggests the existence of a GVT effect.

Blood flow evaluation of reconstructed gastric tube in esophageal surgery using near-infrared imaging and retrospective time-intensity curve analysis.

PURPOSE: Near-infrared fluorescence imaging using indocyanine green (ICG-NIFI) can visualize a blood flow in reconstructed gastric tube; however, it depends on surgeon's visual assessment. The aim of this study was to re-analyze the ICG-NIFI data by an evaluator independent from the surgeon and feasibility of creating the time-intensity curve (TIC). METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 97 patients who underwent esophageal surgery with gastric tube reconstruction between January 2017 and November 2022. From the stored ICG videos, fluorescence intensity was examined in the four regions of interest (ROIs), which was set around the planned anastomosis site on the elevated gastric tube. After creation the TICs using the OpenCV library, we measured the intensity starting point and time constant and assessed the correlation between the anastomotic leakage. RESULTS: Postoperative leakage occurred for 12 patients. The leakage group had significantly lack of blood flow continuity between the right and left gastroepiploic arteries (75.0% vs. 22.4%; P < 0.001) and tended to have slower ICG visualization time assessed by the surgeon's eyes (40 vs. 32 s; P = 0.066). TIC could create in 65 cases. Intensity starting point at all ROIs was faster than the surgeon's assessment. The leakage group tended to have slower intensity starting point at ROI 3 compared to those in the non-leakage group (22.5 vs. 19.0 s; P = 0.087). CONCLUSION: A TIC analysis of ICG-NIFI by an independent evaluator was able to quantify the fluorescence intensity changes that the surgeon had visually determined.

Body mass index trajectories and mortality risk in Japan using a population-based prospective cohort study: the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have found that long-term changes in weight during adulthood are associated with a high risk of mortality. The objective of this study was to characterize body mass index (BMI) trajectories during adulthood and to examine the association between BMI trajectories and risk of death in the Japanese population. METHODS: The data were extracted from Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study-a population-based prospective cohort study in Japan with participants aged 40-69 years followed over 20 years. The participants were categorized into multiple BMI trajectory groups using the latent class growth model. The Cox proportional-hazards model was conducted using all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality as outcomes and the identified BMI trajectory groups as a predictor. In total, 65 520 participants were included in the analysis. RESULTS: Six BMI trajectory groups were identified: underweight stable (Group 1), low-to-high normal (Group 2), high-to-low normal (Group 3), normal to overweight (Group 4), overweight to normal (Group 5) and normal to obese (Group 6). Our Cox models showed a higher hazard (risk) of all-cause mortality among participants in the BMI-declining groups [Group 3, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 1.10, 95% CI: 1.05-1.16; Group 5, aHR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.08-1.26], underweight stable group (Group 1, aHR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.21-1.33) and normal to obese group (Group 6, aHR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.13-1.33) than Group 2 (low-to-high normal BMI trajectory). CONCLUSIONS: Stable underweight and weight loss were associated with a high risk of mortality, both of which were uniquely observed in a Japanese population.

Bias in nutrition-health associations is not eliminated by excluding extreme reporters in empirical or simulation studies.

Self-reported nutrition intake (NI) data are prone to reporting bias that may induce bias in estimands in nutrition studies; however, they are used anyway due to high feasibility. We examined whether applying Goldberg cutoffs to remove 'implausible' self-reported NI could reliably reduce bias compared to biomarkers for energy, sodium, potassium, and protein. Using the Interactive Diet and Activity Tracking in the American Association of Retired Persons (IDATA) data, significant bias in mean NI was removed with Goldberg cutoffs (120 among 303 participants excluded). Associations between NI and health outcomes (weight, waist circumference, heart rate, systolic/diastolic blood pressure, and VO2 max) were estimated, but sample size was insufficient to evaluate bias reductions. We therefore simulated data based on IDATA. Significant bias in simulated associations using self-reported NI was reduced but not completely eliminated by Goldberg cutoffs in 14 of 24 nutrition-outcome pairs; bias was not reduced for the remaining 10 cases. Also, 95% coverage probabilities were improved by applying Goldberg cutoffs in most cases but underperformed compared with biomarker data. Although Goldberg cutoffs may achieve bias elimination in estimating mean NI, bias in estimates of associations between NI and outcomes will not necessarily be reduced or eliminated after application of Goldberg cutoffs. Whether one uses Goldberg cutoffs should therefore be decided based on research purposes and not general rules.

Arbekacin-Loaded Inhalable Nanocomposite Particles Specific to Pseudomonas aeruginosa Prepared Using a Two-Solution Mixing-Type Spray Nozzle.

Hospital-acquired pneumonia is an important infectious disease that requires special management and therapy for patients with compromised immunity, as opportunistic infections with microorganisms such as Pseudomonas aeruginosa can be fatal. Nanoparticle-based drug delivery to lung tissue provides several advantages in the treatment of respiratory diseases. In the current study, inhalable nanocomposite particles consisting of microparticles containing solid-state arbekacin (ABK) nanoparticles coated with hydrophobic surfactant (ABK-SD nanoparticles) were prepared using a spray dryer equipped with a two-solution mixing-type spray nozzle we previously developed. ABK-SD/mannitol (MAN) nanocomposite particles were obtained from ABK-SD nanoparticles by varying the amounts of hydrophobic surfactant and ABK. The aerosol performance of ABK-SD/MAN nanocomposite particles was superior to that of ABK-MAN microparticles in terms of the fine particle fraction (28.4 ± 5.4%, ABK-SD/MAN nanocomposite particles; 11.4 ± 7.6%, ABK-MAN microparticles). These results suggest that ABK-SD/MAN nanocomposite particles are suitable for use in inhalation drug formulations and useful for the treatment of lung infections involving Pseudomonas aeruginosa.

Sophisticated expression responses of ZNT1 and MT in response to changes in the expression of ZIPs.

The zinc homeostatic proteins Zn transporter 1 (ZNT1) and metallothionein (MT) function in dampening increases in cytosolic zinc concentrations. Conversely, the expression of ZNT1 and MT is expected to be suppressed during decreases in cytosolic zinc concentrations. Thus, ZNT1/MT homeostatic responses are considered to be essential for maintaining cellular zinc homeostasis because cellular zinc concentrations are readily altered by changes in the expression of several Zrt-/Irt-like proteins (ZIPs) under both physiological and pathological conditions. However, this notion remains to be tested experimentally. Here, we investigated the aforementioned homeostatic process by analyzing ZNT1 and MT protein expression in response to ZIP expression. Overexpression of cell-surface-localized ZIPs, such as ZIP4 and ZIP5, increased the cellular zinc content, which caused an increase in the expression of cell-surface ZNT1 and cytosolic MT in the absence of zinc supplementation in the culture medium. By contrast, elimination of the overexpressed ZIP4 and ZIP5 resulted in decreased expression of ZNT1 but not MT, which suggests that differential regulation of ZNT1 and MT expression at the protein level underlies the homeostatic responses necessary for zinc metabolism under certain conditions. Moreover, increased expression of apically localized ZIP4 facilitated basolateral ZNT1 expression in polarized cells, which indicates that such a coordinated expression mechanism is crucial for vectorial transcellular transport. Our results provide novel insights into the physiological maintenance of cellular zinc homeostasis in response to alterations in cytosolic zinc concentrations caused by changes in the expression of ZIPs.

Scaffold size-dependent effect on the enhanced uptake of antibiotics and other compounds by Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa.

The outer membrane of Gram-negative bacteria functions as an impermeable barrier to foreign compounds. Thus, modulating membrane transport can contribute to improving susceptibility to antibiotics and efficiency of bioproduction reactions. In this study, the cellular uptake of hydrophobic and large-scaffold antibiotics and other compounds in Gram-negative bacteria was investigated by modulating the homolog expression of bamB encoding an outer membrane lipoprotein and tolC encoding an outer membrane efflux protein via gene deletion and gene silencing. The potential of deletion mutants for biotechnological applications, such as drug screening and bioproduction, was also demonstrated. Instead of being subjected to gene deletion, wild-type bacterial cells were treated with cell-penetrating peptide conjugates of a peptide nucleic acid (CPP-PNA) against bamB and tolC homologs as antisense agents. Results revealed that the single deletion of bamB and tolC in Escherichia coli increased the uptake of large- and small-scaffold hydrophobic compounds, respectively. A bamB-and-tolC double deletion mutant had a higher uptake efficiency for certain antibiotics and other compounds with high hydrophobicity than each single deletion mutant. The CPP-PNA treated E. coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa cells showed high sensitivity to various antibiotics. Therefore, these gene deletion and silencing approaches can be utilized in therapeutic and biotechnological fields.

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of a pre-exposure prophylaxis program for HIV prevention for men who have sex with men in Japan.

Men who have sex with men (MSM) have been disproportionally affected by the HIV epidemic in many countries, including Japan. Although pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a strong prevention tool, it is not yet approved in Japan. A Markov model was developed to describe HIV infection and disease progression in an MSM cohort (N = 1000) in Japan receiving a PrEP program. The model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a PrEP program. HIV/AIDS treatment, screening, hospitalization due to AIDS, and PrEP were considered as costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained as utilities. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by comparing the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a 30-year period against the willingness to pay (WTP) threshold. One-way sensitivity and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. With 50% PrEP coverage, the PrEP program became dominant against the program without PrEP, using a threshold of 5.0 million JPY/QALY (45,455 USD). The probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that the PrEP program was dominant or at least cost-effective in most cases of 10,000 simulations. Therefore, preparing cheaper PrEP pills, which results in PrEP being dominant or ICER being lower than the WTP threshold, is important to make the program cost-effective. Introduction of PrEP to an MSM cohort in Japan would be cost-effective over a 30-year time horizon.

Perihepatic Abscess due to a Liver Suture with Pledgets Used to Treat a Penetrating Liver Injury.

BACKGROUND: Selective nonoperative management has become the standard for liver injuries. Accordingly, we cannot perform surgery for liver injuries as frequently as in the past. This report is aimed at sharing a valuable experience of postoperative complications after surgery for a liver injury. Case Presentation. A 40-year-old man was stabbed in his abdomen and underwent an emergency laparotomy for a severe liver injury. Five months after the operation, he developed fever, and purulent discharge was observed from an abdominal fistula. He was diagnosed with a perihepatic abscess and duodenal perforation due to the pledgets used for the operation. He underwent a second surgery to remove the pledgets and the abscess cavity for infection control and was discharged in good condition. CONCLUSION: The intra-abdominal environment should be considered contaminated due to bile leakage in surgeries following liver injury. Furthermore, nonabsorbable agents should not be used in these contaminated areas.

Quantifying compliance with COVID-19 mitigation policies in the US: A mathematical modeling study.

The outbreak of COVID-19 disrupts the life of many people in the world. In response to this global pandemic, various institutions across the globe had soon issued their prevention guidelines. Governments in the US had also implemented social distancing policies. However, those policies, which were designed to slow the spread of COVID-19, and its compliance, have varied across the states, which led to spatial and temporal heterogeneity in COVID-19 spread. This paper aims to propose a spatio-temporal model for quantifying compliance with the US COVID-19 mitigation policies at a regional level. To achieve this goal, a specific partial differential equation (PDE) is developed and validated with short-term predictions. The proposed model describes the combined effects of transboundary spread among state clusters in the US and human mobilities on the transmission of COVID-19. The model can help inform policymakers as they decide how to react to future outbreaks.

HIV Testing by Public Health Centers and Municipalities and New HIV Cases During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 outbreak, facility capacity for HIV testing has been limited. Furthermore, people may have opted against HIV testing during this period to avoid COVID-19 exposure. We investigated the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV testing and the number of reported HIV cases in Japan. METHODS: We analyzed quarterly HIV/AIDS-related data from 2015 to the second quarter of 2020 using an anomaly detection approach. The data included the number of consultations, the number of HIV tests performed by public health centers or municipalities, and the number of newly reported HIV cases with and without an AIDS diagnosis. We further performed the same analysis for 2 subgroups: men who have sex with men (MSM) and non-Japanese persons. RESULTS: The number of HIV tests (9,584 vs. 35,908 in the year-before period) and consultations (11,689 vs. 32,565) performed by public health centers significantly declined in the second quarter of 2020, whereas the proportion of new HIV cases with an AIDS diagnosis (36.2% vs. 26.4%) significantly increased after removing the trend and seasonality effects. HIV cases without an AIDS diagnosis decreased (166 vs. 217), but the reduction was not significant. We confirmed similar trends for the men who have sex with men and non-Japanese subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the current HIV testing system in Japan seems to have missed more cases of HIV before developing AIDS. Continuously monitoring the situation and securing sufficient test resources by use of self-testing is essential to understand the clear epidemiological picture of HIV incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Development of Spray Formulations Applied to the Oral Mucosa Using Non-lamellar Liquid Crystal-Forming Lipids.

We examined the physicochemical and biochemical properties of mono-O-(5,9,13-trimethyl-4-tetradecenyl)glycerol ester (MGE), including ease of handling, high bioadhesiveness, quick and stable in vivo self-organization (forming a non-lamellar lyotropic liquid crystal [NLLC]), and high biomembrane permeation enhancement. We prepared MGE oral mucosa-applied spray preparations containing triamcinolone acetonide (TA), which is widely used in the treatment of stomatitis, and we examined the usefulness of the MGE preparations compared with commercially available oral mucosal application preparations containing 2,3-dihydroxypropyl oleate (1-mono(cis-9-octadecenoyl)glycerol (GMO) (previously studied as an NLLC-forming lipid) preparation. As a result, the MGE preparation applied to the oral mucosa can rapidly formed an NLLC with reverse hexagonal or cubic structures, or a mixture, on contact with water. In addition, by adding hydroxypropyl cellulose to the MGE preparation, similar retention properties on the oral mucous membrane were obtained to that using marketed drug preparations. Furthermore, the MGE spray formulation on the oral mucosa showed an equivalent or higher TA release as well as oral mucous membrane permeability compared with commercial formulations. Because MGE forms a stable NLLC and is easy to handle compared with GMO, MGE was considered to be a useful pharmaceutical additive for a spray preparation applied to the oral mucosa in combination.

Using a partial differential equation with Google Mobility data to predict COVID-19 in Arizona.

The outbreak of COVID-19 disrupts the life of many people in the world. The state of Arizona in the U.S. emerges as one of the country's newest COVID-19 hot spots. Accurate forecasting for COVID-19 cases will help governments to implement necessary measures and convince more people to take personal precautions to combat the virus. It is difficult to accurately predict the COVID- 19 cases due to many human factors involved. This paper aims to provide a forecasting model for COVID-19 cases with the help of human activity data from the Google Community Mobility Reports. To achieve this goal, a specific partial differential equation (PDE) is developed and validated with the COVID-19 data from the New York Times at the county level in the state of Arizona in the U.S. The proposed model describes the combined effects of transboundary spread among county clusters in Arizona and human activities on the transmission of COVID-19. The results show that the prediction accuracy of this model is well acceptable (above 94%). Furthermore, we study the effectiveness of personal precautions such as wearing face masks and practicing social distancing on COVID-19 cases at the local level. The localized analytical results can be used to help to slow the spread of COVID- 19 in Arizona. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to apply PDE models on COVID-19 prediction with the Google Community Mobility Reports.

Can self-monitoring mobile health apps reduce sedentary behavior? A randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the self-monitoring interventions of a mobile health app reduce sedentary behavior in the short and long terms. METHOD: We designed a double-blind randomized control trial. Participants were selected from among the staff of a medical institution and registrants of an online research firm. Forty-nine participants were randomly assigned to either a control group (n = 25) or an intervention group (n = 24). The control group was given only the latest information about sedentary behavior, and the intervention was provided real-time feedback for self-monitoring in addition to the information. These interventions provided for 5 weeks (to measure the short-term effect) and 13 weeks (to measure the long-term effect) via the smartphone app. Measurements were as follows: subjective total sedentary time (SST), objective total sedentary time (OST), mean sedentary bout duration (MSB), and the number of sedentary breaks (SB). Only SST was measured by self-report based on the standardized International Physical Activity Questionnaire and others were measured with the smartphone. RESULTS: No significant results were observed in the short term. In the long term, while no significant results were also observed in objective sedentary behavior (OST, MSB, SB), the significant differences were observed in subjective sedentary behavior (SST, ßint  - ßctrl between baseline and 9/13 weeks; 1.73 and 1.50 h/d, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Real-time feedback for self-monitoring with smartphone did not significantly affect objective sedentary behavior. However, providing only information about sedentary behavior to users with smartphones may make misperception on the amount of their subjective sedentary behavior.

Identifying characteristics of indicators of sedentary behavior using objective measurements.

OBJECTIVE: Recent attention has been focused on sedentary behavior (SB) affecting health outcomes, but the characteristics of indicators reflecting SB remain to be identified. This cross-sectional study aims to identify the characteristics of indicators of SB, focusing on the examination of correlations, reliability, and validity of sedentary variables assessed by the smartphone app. METHOD: Objectively measured data of SB of eligible 46 Japanese workers obtained from smartphones were used. We assessed the characteristics of current indicators being used with a 10-minute or 30-minute thresholds, in addition to the conventional indicators of total sedentary time, mean sedentary bout duration, and total number of sedentary bouts. They were evaluated from three perspectives: (a) association among the indicators, (b) reliability of the indicators, and (c) criterion validity. RESULTS: Total sedentary time under 10 minutes (U10) and U30 had negative associations with Total sedentary time (r = -.47 and -.21 respectively). The correlation between Mean sedentary bout duration and Total number of sedentary bouts was -.84, whereas between Mean sedentary bout duration 10, 30 and Total number of sedentary bouts were -.54 and -.21, respectively. The intraclass correlation coefficients of almost all indicators were around .80. Mean sedentary bout duration, Mean sedentary bout duration 10, Total number of sedentary bouts, Total sedentary time 30, U30 and U10 have significant differences between three BMI groups. CONCLUSION: This study comprehensively revealed the rationale of advantage in the current indicator being used with a 10-minute or 30-minute threshold, rather than the conventional total amount of SB.

Exploring the mechanisms behind the country-specific time of Zika virusimportation.

The international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) began in Brazil in 2015. To estimate the riskof observing imported ZIKV cases, we calculated effective distance, typically an excellent predictorof arrival time, from airline network data. However, we eventually concluded that, for ZIKV, effectivedistance alone is not an adequate predictor of arrival time, which we partly attributed to the difficultyof diagnosing and ascertaining ZIKV infections. Herein, we explored the mechanisms behind theobserved time delay of ZIKV importation by country, statistically decomposing the delay into twoparts: the actual time to importation from Brazil and the reporting delay. The latter was modeled as afunction of the gross domestic product (GDP) and other variables that influence underlying diagnosticcapacity in a given country. We showed that a high GDP per capita is a good predictor of shortreporting delay. ZIKV infection is generally mild and, without substantial laboratory capacity, casescan be underestimated. This study successfully demonstrates this phenomenon and emphasizes theimportance of accounting for reporting delays as part of the data generating process for estimatingtime to importation.

[Diagnosis and Treatment of MSI-H Cancer in Gynecological Cancer].

Among gynecological cancers, microsatellite instability(MSI)is most commonly found in endometrial carcinoma. When an allelic variation is observed in multiple microsatellite regions, it is called MSI-high(MSI-H). Hereditary MSI-H endometrial cancer develops through a germline mutation ofthe mismatch repair(MMR)gene, resulting in Lynch syndrome, and increased risk ofsporadic MSI-H endometrial cancer is caused by somatic lineage mutations or methylation abnormalities. Clinical characteristics ofendometrial cancer involved in Lynch syndrome include symptoms such as onset at a younger age, a lower corpus segment at the site, earlier stage cancer, and varied histology, when compared with those ofthe sporadic cancer. Alternatively, somatic mutations ofthe MMR gene are highly heterogeneous; however, a meta-analysis showed no difference in prognosis between with and without MSI-H. MSI-H is considered to be a biomarker, showing the therapeutic effects of an immune checkpoint inhibitor. A recent randomized controlled trial(RCT)demonstrated that an immune checkpoint inhibitor was effective against colorectal cancer with MSI-H. An additional RCT proved its effectiveness for MSI-H solid cancers, regardless oforgan type, including endometrial cancer. As the number ofcases ofendometrial cancer is increasing in Japan, MSI-H may hold utility as a biomarker for new molecular-target drugs, including immune checkpoint inhibitors. Ongoing surveillance ofcarcinomas in patients and family members is important because endometrial carcinoma associated with Lynch syndrome is a hereditary tumor. However, there is currently no established surveillance method for endometrial cancer. To improve the overall prognosis ofpatients with Lynch syndrome, genetic counseling and cross-division management are necessary, and also establishing the system is urgently required.