Group sequential designs for clinical trials when the maximum sample size is uncertain.

Motivated by the experience of COVID-19 trials, we consider clinical trials in the setting of an emerging disease in which the uncertainty of natural disease course and potential treatment effects makes advance specification of a sample size challenging. One approach to such a challenge is to use a group sequential design to allow the trial to stop on the basis of interim analysis results as soon as a conclusion regarding the effectiveness of the treatment under investigation can be reached. As such a trial may be halted before a formal stopping boundary is reached, we consider the final analysis under such a scenario, proposing alternative methods for when the decision to halt the trial is made with or without knowledge of interim analysis results. We address the problems of ensuring that the type I error rate neither exceeds nor falls unnecessarily far below the nominal level. We also propose methods in which there is no maximum sample size, the trial continuing either until the stopping boundary is reached or it is decided to halt the trial.

The frequency of fatty liver in patients with alopecia areata: A case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Alopecia areata (AA) is an immune-mediated nonscarring hair loss disorder with multiple subtypes, including alopecia universalis (AU). Previous studies have shown a link between serum lipid profile and alopecia. We aimed to investigate the frequency of fatty liver in patients with AU and patchy alopecia areata (PAA) compared to a control group. METHODS: This case-control study included patients with AU and PAA referred to a dermatology clinic from September 23, 2019 to September 23, 2020. A group of individuals without hair loss disorders attending the same clinic were selected as controls. Participants' general information, including age, sex, weight, height, and waist circumference (WC), was recorded. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated for all participants. Also, hyperlipidemia and statin use were noted and liver enzymes were evaluated. For AU and PAA patients, disease duration and the Severity of Alopecia Tool (SALT) score were also recorded. Then, all subjects underwent ultrasound to assess fatty liver and its grade. RESULTS: Overall, 32 patients were included in each group. All three groups were comparable in age, sex, weight, height, BMI, WC, hyperlipidemia, abnormal liver enzymes, and statin use. Disease duration and SALT score were significantly higher in the AU than in the PAA group (p = 0.009 and p < 0.001, respectively). The frequency of fatty liver was the highest in AU patients (40.6%), followed by 34.4% in PAA patients, and 21.9% in controls (p = 0.263). This was also the case for grade-1 fatty liver, while grade-2 was more common in PAA patients, and grade-3 was only observed in one patient from the AU group (p = 0.496). CONCLUSIONS: Fatty liver was more frequent in AU and PAA patients than controls, without statistically significant differences. There might be an association between fatty liver and AA, particularly the AU subtype.