Mendelian randomisation and mediation analysis of self-reported walking pace and coronary artery disease.

The aim of this study was to assess the causal relationship between habitual walking pace and cardiovascular disease risk using a Mendelian randomisation approach. We performed both one- and two-sample Mendelian randomisation analyses in a sample of 340,000 European ancestry participants from UK Biobank, applying a range of sensitivity analyses to assess pleiotropy and reverse causality. We used a latent variable framework throughout to model walking pace as a continuous exposure, despite being measured in discrete categories, which provided more robust and interpretable causal effect estimates. Using one-sample Mendelian randomisation, we estimated that a 1 mph (i.e., 1.6 kph) increase in self-reported habitual walking pace corresponds to a 63% (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.37, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.25-0.55, P = 2.0 × 10-6) reduction in coronary artery disease risk. Using conditional analyses, we also estimated that the proportion of the total effect on coronary artery disease mediated through BMI was 45% (95% CI 16-70%). We further validated findings from UK Biobank using two-sample Mendelian randomisation with outcome data from the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium. Our findings suggest that interventions that seek to encourage individuals to walk more briskly should lead to protective effects on cardiovascular disease risk.

Association of ethnicity and socioeconomic status with health outcomes in women with gestational diabetes: Clinical practice research datalink cohort study.

AIMS: To investigate in women with prior gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), differences by ethnicity and socioeconomic status in the incidence of recurrent GDM, type 2 diabetes (T2D), hypertension, and depression. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study including 10,868 women diagnosed with GDM in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD GOLD) between January 01, 2000 and November 05, 2018. Linked data were obtained for Hospital Episode Statistics and the Index of Multiple Deprivation. We estimated incidence rates and hazard ratios, by ethnicity and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: During a follow-up of 58,479 person years (mean (SD): 5.38 (3.67) years), the crude incidence was 9.67 (95 % confidence interval: 9.30-10.00) per 100 person years for recurrent GDM, 3.86 (3.70-4.02) for depression, 2.15 (2.03-2.27) for T2D and 0.89 (0.81-0.97) for hypertension. South Asian ethnicity was associated with an increased risk of T2D compared to White (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.65; 1.34-2.05) and Black ethnicity was associated with a greater risk of hypertension (2.93; 1.93-4.46). Black and South Asian ethnicity were associated with a reduced risk of depression compared to White: 0.23 (0.13-0.39) and 0.37 (0.29-0.46), respectively. Incidence rates were higher for all conditions with increasing deprivation level. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of health complications in women with a prior history of GDM differs by ethnicity and socio-economic status, suggesting the opportunity for targeted assessment in the years following pregnancy. These findings may inform future guidelines on screening for health outcomes in women with GDM.

Effect of very long-term storage and multiple freeze and thaw cycles on 11-dehydro-thromboxane-B2 and 8-iso-prostaglandin F2α, levels in human urine samples by validated enzyme immunoassays.

Biological samples are often frozen and stored for years and/or thawed multiple times, thus assessing their stability on long-term storage and repeated freeze-thaw cycles is crucial. The study aims were to assess:-the long-term stability of two major enzymatic and non-enzymatic metabolites of arachidonic acid, i.e. urinary 11-dehydro-thromboxane-(Tx) B2, 8-iso-prostaglandin (PG)F2α, and creatinine in frozen urine samples;-the effect of multiple freeze-thaw cycles. Seven-hundred and three urine samples measured in previously-published studies, stored at -40 °C, and measured for a second time for 11-dehydro-TxB2 (n = 677) and/or 8-iso-PGF2α (n = 114) and/or creatinine (n = 610) were stable over 10 years and the 2 measurements were highly correlated (all rho = 0.99, P < 0.0001). Urine samples underwent 10 sequential freeze-thaw cycles, with and without the antioxidant 4-hydroxy-2,2,6,6-tetramethylpiperidin-1-oxyl (10 mM); urinary 11-dehydro-TxB2 and creatinine were stable across all cycles (11-dehydro-TxB2: 100.4 ± 21%; creatinine: 101 ± 7% of baseline at cycle ten; n = 17), while 8-iso-PGF2α significantly increased by cycle 6 (151 ± 22% of baseline at cycle ten, n = 17, P < 0.05) together with hydrogen peroxide only in the absence of antioxidant. Arachidonic acid metabolites and creatinine appear stable in human urines stored at -40 °C over 10 years. Multiple freeze-thaw cycles increase urinary 8-iso-PGF2α in urine samples without antioxidants. These data are relevant for studies using urine samples stored over long-term and/or undergoing multiple freezing-thawing.

Employment outcomes of people with Long Covid symptoms: community-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the long-term employment consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection is lacking. We used data from a large, community-based sample in the UK to estimate associations between Long Covid and employment outcomes. METHODS: This was an observational, longitudinal study using a pre-post design. We included survey participants from 3 February 2021 to 30 September 2022 when they were aged 16-64 years and not in education. Using conditional logit modelling, we explored the time-varying relationship between Long Covid status ≥12 weeks after a first test-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (reference: pre-infection) and labour market inactivity (neither working nor looking for work) or workplace absence lasting ≥4 weeks. RESULTS: Of 206 299 participants (mean age 45 years, 54% female, 92% white), 15% were ever labour market inactive and 10% were ever long-term absent during follow-up. Compared with pre-infection, inactivity was higher in participants reporting Long Covid 30 to <40 weeks [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.45; 95% CI: 1.17-1.81] or 40 to <52 weeks (aOR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.05-1.72) post-infection. Combining with official statistics on Long Covid prevalence, and assuming a correct statistical model, our estimates translate to 27 000 (95% CI: 6000-47 000) working-age adults in the UK being inactive because of Long Covid in July 2022. CONCLUSIONS: Long Covid is likely to have contributed to reduced participation in the UK labour market, though it is unlikely to be the sole driver. Further research is required to quantify the contribution of other factors, such as indirect health effects of the pandemic.

Glycaemic control and macrovascular and microvascular outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis of trials investigating intensive glucose-lowering strategies in people with type 2 diabetes.

AIM: We aimed to determine the macrovascular and microvascular outcomes of intensive versus standard glucose-lowering strategies in type 2 diabetes (T2D) and investigate the relationships between these outcomes and trial arm glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) reduction. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we identified relevant trials from MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and bibliographies up to August 2023. Macrovascular and microvascular outcomes, along with safety outcomes, were evaluated. Pooled study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated, and meta-regression was employed to analyse the relationships between outcomes and HbA1c reduction. RESULTS: We included 11 unique RCTs involving 51 469 patients with T2D (intensive therapy, N = 26 691; standard therapy, N = 24 778). Intensive versus standard therapy reduced the risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) (HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.75-0.94) with no difference in the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (HR 0.97; 95% CI 0.92-1.03) and other adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Intensive versus standard therapy reduced the risk of retinopathy (HR 0.85; 0.78-0.93), nephropathy (HR 0.71; 0.58-0.87) and composite microvascular outcomes (HR 0.88; 0.77-1.00). Meta-regression analyses showed modest evidence of inverse linear relationships between HbA1c reduction and the outcomes of major adverse cardiovascular events, non-fatal MI, stroke and retinopathy, but these were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: In people with T2D, intensive glucose control was associated with a reduced risk of non-fatal MI and several microvascular outcomes, particularly retinopathy and nephropathy. The lack of an effect of intensive glucose-lowering on most macrovascular outcomes calls for a more comprehensive approach to managing cardiovascular risk factors alongside glycaemic control.

Translating trial results into interpretable risk estimates: Systematic analysis of cardiorenal outcome trials of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In a randomised controlled trial (RCT), the between-arm difference in the average probability of an event per unit of time (i.e., yearly incidence risk difference, YIRD) is an easy-to-interpret treatment effect metric. We aimed to quantify the YIRD in cardiorenal RCTs of GLP-1RAs or SGLT-2is. METHODS AND RESULTS: We digitally searched for RCTs published up to March 1st, 2023, including subjects with type 2 diabetes randomised to GLP-1RAs or SGLT-2is and investigating cardiorenal outcomes or death. We extracted information from Kaplan-Meier (KM) plots to obtain time-to-event individual data and estimate within-arm yearly incidence risk and YIRD. Data from 19 RCTs (28 kM plots) were analysed: comparing treatment to placebo, in GLP-1RA RCTs the YIRD ranged from 0.2 % (95 % CI: -0.7 %, 1.1 %) to -1.9 % (-3.1, -0.7), for primary outcome; and from -0.2 % (-0.5, 0.2) to -0.4 % (-0.7 %, -0.0 %), for mortality. With the exception of SOLOIST-WHF (YIRD 11.9 % for primary outcome), corresponding estimates in SGLT-2is RCTs were: from -0.1 % (-0.4, 0.1) to -5.0 % (-7.7, -2.6), for primary outcome; and from -0.1 % (-0.2, 0.1) to -1.9 % (-4.4 %, 0.6 %), for mortality. CONCLUSION: The YIRD metric complements other relative treatment effect estimates and helps quantify the absolute benefit of GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2is.

Glycaemic control and macrovascular and microvascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes: Systematic review and meta-analysis of cardiovascular outcome trials of novel glucose-lowering agents.

AIM: Using a systematic review and meta-analysis of placebo-controlled cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs) of newer glucose-lowering agents [sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs), and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4is)] in type 2 diabetes (T2D), we aimed to determine the macrovascular and microvascular outcomes of these agents and clarify the relationships between glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) reduction and risk of these outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Randomized controlled trials were identified from MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane Library until September 2023. Study-specific hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled, and meta-regression was used to assess the relationships between outcomes and between trial arm HbA1c reductions. RESULTS: Twenty unique CVOTs (six SGLT-2is, nine GLP-1RAs, five DPP-4is), based on 169 513 participants with T2D, were eligible. Comparing SGLT-2is, GLP-1RAs and DPP-4is with placebo, the hazard ratios (95% CIs) for 3-point major adverse cardiovascular events were 0.88 (0.82-0.94), 0.85 (0.79-0.92) and 1.00 (0.94-1.06), respectively. SGLT-2is and GLP-1RAs consistently reduced the risk of several macrovascular and microvascular complications, particularly kidney events. DPP-4is showed no macrovascular benefits. There was potential evidence of an inverse linear relationship between HbA1c reduction and 3-point major adverse cardiovascular event risk (estimated risk per 1% reduction in HbA1c: 0.84, 95% CI 0.67-1.06; p = .14; R2 = 14.2%), which was driven by the component of non-fatal stroke (R2 = 100.0%; p = .094). There were non-significant inverse linear relationships between HbA1c reduction and the risk of several vascular outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: SGLT-2is and GLP-1RAs showed consistent risk reductions in macrovascular and microvascular outcomes. The vascular benefits of SGLT-2is and GLP-1RAs in patients with T2D extend beyond mere glycaemic control.

Effect of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors on time to outcome in type 2 diabetes cardiorenal outcome trials.

INTRODUCTION: In randomized controlled trials (RCTs), treatment effects are commonly reported as hazard ratio, a measure often misinterpreted as a relative risk reduction. The acceleration factor (AF) indicates the extent to which a treatment increases/decreases the time before the occurrence of an outcome and gives useful insights in the interpretation of trials' results. METHODS: Using individual time-to-event data reconstructed from Kaplan-Meier plots, we estimated AFs for the primary outcomes (POs) and all-cause mortality in glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RAs) or sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2-is) cardiorenal outcome trials in subjects with type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: AFs were estimated from 28 Kaplan-Meier plots of 19 RCTs. Compared to placebo, most GLP1-RAs increased the time before the onset of POs (from 9 % to 59 %) and all-cause mortality (from 8 to 13 %). Similarly, SGLT2-is increased time before the onset of POs (from 19 % to 87 %) and all-cause mortality (from 13 % to 42 %). CONCLUSIONS: The AFs provide a complementary and easier-to-interpret measure of treatment effect that could be useful to improve the shared decision-making.

Symptoms and signs in patients with heart failure: association with 3-month hospitalisation and mortality.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the association between symptoms and signs reported in primary care consultations following a new diagnosis of heart failure (HF), and 3-month hospitalisation and mortality. DESIGN: Nested case-control study with density-based sampling. SETTING: Clinical Practice Research Datalink, linked to hospitalisation and mortality (1998-2020). PARTICIPANTS: Database cohort of 86 882 patients with a new HF diagnosis. In two separate analyses for (1) first hospitalisation and (2) death, we compared the 3-month history of symptoms and signs in cases (patients with HF with the event), with their respective controls (patients with HF without the respective event, matched on diagnosis date (±1 month) and follow-up time). Controls could be included more than once and later become a case. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause, HF and non-cardiovascular disease (non-CVD) hospitalisation and mortality. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 3.22 years (IQR: 0.59-8.18), 56 677 (65%) experienced first hospitalisation and 48 146 (55%) died. These cases were matched to 356 714 and 316 810 HF controls, respectively. For HF hospitalisation, the strongest adjusted associations were for symptoms and signs of fluid overload: pulmonary oedema (adjusted OR 3.08; 95% CI 2.52, 3.64), shortness of breath (2.94; 2.77, 3.11) and peripheral oedema (2.16; 2.00, 2.32). Generic symptoms also showed significant associations: depression (1.50; 1.18, 1.82), anxiety (1.35; 1.06, 1.64) and pain (1.19; 1.10, 1.28). Non-CVD hospitalisation had the strongest associations with chest pain (2.93; 2.77, 3.09), fatigue (1.87; 1.73, 2.01), general pain (1.87; 1.81, 1.93) and depression (1.59; 1.44, 1.74). CONCLUSIONS: In the primary care HF population, routinely recorded cardiac and non-specific symptoms showed differential risk associations with hospitalisation and mortality.

Effect of delay in treatment intensification in people with type 2 diabetes and suboptimal glycaemia after basal insulin initiation: A real-world observational study.

AIM: Despite global recommendations for type 2 diabetes mellitus treatment to maintain optimal glycaemic targets, a significant proportion of people remain in suboptimal glycaemic control. Our objective was to investigate the impact of intensification delay after basal insulin (BI) initiation on long-term complications in people with suboptimal glycaemia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus initiated on BI. Those with suboptimal glycaemia (glycated haemoglobin ≥7% or ≥53 mmol/mol) within 12 months of BI initiation were divided into early (treatment intensified within 5 years), or late (≥5 years) intensification groups. We estimated the age-stratified risks of micro- and macrovascular complications among these groups compared with those with optimal glycaemia (glycated haemoglobin <7%). RESULTS: Of the 13 916 people with suboptimal glycaemia, 52.5% (n = 7304) did not receive any treatment intensification. In those aged <65 years, compared with the optimal glycaemia group late intensification was associated with a 56% higher risk of macrovascular complications (adjusted hazard ratio 1.56; 95% confidence intervals 1.08, 2.26). In elderly people (≥65 years), late intensification was associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular-related death (1.62; 1.03, 2.54) and a lower risk of microvascular complications (0.26; 0.08, 0.83). CONCLUSIONS: Those who had late intensification were at an increased risk of cardiovascular death if they were ≥65 years and an increased risk of macrovascular complications if they were <65 years. These findings highlight the critical need for earlier intensification of treatment and adopting personalized treatment strategies to improve patient outcomes.

Walking pace and the time between the onset of noncommunicable diseases and mortality: a UK Biobank prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: To estimate time spent in various cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer states, according to self-reported walking pace. METHODS: In total, 391,744 UK Biobank participants were included (median age = 57 years; 54.7% women). Data were collected 2006-2010, with follow-up collected in 2021. Usual walking pace was self-defined as slow, steady, average, or brisk. Multistate modeling determined the transition rate and mean sojourn time in and across three different states (healthy, CVD or cancer, and death) upon a time horizon of 10 years. RESULTS: The mean sojourn time in the healthy state was longer, while that in the CVD or cancer state was shorter in individuals reporting an average or brisk walking pace (vs. slow). A 75-year-old woman reporting a brisk walking pace spent, on average, 8.4 years of the next 10 years in a healthy state; an additional 8.0 (95% CI: 7.3, 8.7) months longer than a 75-year-old woman reporting a slow walking pace. This corresponded to 4.3 (3.7, 4.9) fewer months living with CVD or cancer. Similar results were seen in men. CONCLUSIONS: Adults reporting an average or brisk walking pace at baseline displayed a lower transition to disease development and a greater proportion of life lived without CVD or cancer. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIALS: Research was conducted using the UK Biobank resource under Application #33266. The UK Biobank resource can be accessed by researchers on application. Variables derived for this study have been returned to the UK Biobank for future applicants to request. No additional data are available.

Diabetes and risk of heart failure in people with and without cardiovascular disease: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: People with diabetes have an increased risk of heart failure (HF), compared to those without diabetes. However, no comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis has explored whether these associations could differ in relation to prevalent cardiovascular disease (CVD). AIMS: To estimate the association between diabetes and incident heart failure (HF), compared to without diabetes, in individuals with and without CVD. METHODS: PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched for observational cohort studies from the earliest dates to 22nd March 2023. A random-effects model calculated the pooled relative risk (RR). RESULTS: Of 11,609 articles, 31 and 6 studies reported data in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and type 1 diabetes (T1D) respectively. Individuals with T2D had an increased risk of HF irrespective of CVD prevalence: 1.61 (95% CI: 1.35-1.92) in those with CVD; 1.78 (1.60-1.99) without CVD; and 2.02 (1.75-2.33) with unspecified CVD prevalence. Meta-regression did not identify a significant difference comparing HF risk in T2D individuals with vs. without CVD (p = 0.232). CONCLUSION: Peoplewith T2D, compared to those without diabetes, have similar increased risk of HF, regardless of CVD prevalence. Strategiesproven to lower HF risk in T2D individuals should be prioritized for those with and without CVD.

The impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on the body mass index of people living with obesity: A UK retrospective cohort study using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: Restrictions implemented by governments during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic affected people's eating habits and physical activity. We investigated the effect of COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions on body mass index (BMI) and weight in a UK population, according to BMI class, sex, age and ethnicity. METHODS: This retrospective observational cohort study used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink AURUM database. Baseline spanned from 22 March 2017-22 March 2020, and the follow-up lockdown period was from 23 March 2020 (start of the lockdown in the UK) to 13 March 2021. The descriptive analysis included individuals with ≥ 1 valid BMI/weight measurements during both the baseline and follow-up periods, while the model-based analysis comprised individuals with ≥ 1 valid measurement(s) during baseline. Results were stratified by baseline BMI category, sex, age and ethnicity. RESULTS: In the descriptive analysis (n = 273,529), most individuals did not change BMI category post-lockdown (66.4-83.3%). A greater proportion of women (12.6%) than men (9.5%) moved up BMI categories post-lockdown. Compared with older groups, a higher proportion of individuals < 45 years old increased post-lockdown BMI category. The model-based analysis (n = 938,150) revealed consistent trends, where changes in body weight and BMI trajectories pre- and post-lockdown were observed for women and for individuals < 45 years. CONCLUSION: During COVID-19 restrictions, women and young individuals were more likely than other groups to increase BMI category and weight post-lockdown.

Self-reported walking pace and 10-year cause-specific mortality: A UK biobank investigation.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate associations of self-reported walking pace (SRWP) with relative and absolute risks of cause-specific mortality. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In 391,652 UK Biobank participants recruited in 2006-2010, we estimated sex- and cause-specific (cardiovascular disease [CVD], cancer, other causes) mortality hazard ratios (HRs) and 10-year mortality risks across categories of SRWP (slow, average, brisk), accounting for confounders and competing risk. Censoring occurred in September 30, 2021 (England, Wales) and October 31, 2021 (Scotland). RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 12.6 years, 22,413 deaths occurred. In women, the HRs comparing brisk to slow SRWP were 0.74 (95% CI: 0.67, 0.82), 0.40 (0.33, 0.49), and 0.29 (0.26, 0.32) for cancer, CVD, and other causes of death, respectively, and 0.71 (0.64, 0.78), 0.38 (0.33, 0.44), and 0.29 (0.26, 0.32) in men. Compared to CVD, HRs were greater for other causes (women: 39.6% [6.2, 72.9]; men: 31.6% [9.8, 53.5]) and smaller for cancer (-45.8% [-58.3, -33.2] and - 45.9% [-54.8, -36.9], respectively). For all causes in both sexes, the 10-year mortality risk was higher in slow walkers, but varied across sex, age, and cause, resulting in different risk reductions comparing brisk to slow: the largest were for other causes of death at age 75 years [women: -6.8% (-7.7, -5.8); men: -9.5% (-10.6, -8.4)]. CONCLUSION: Compared to slow walkers, brisk SRWP was associated with reduced cancer (smallest reduction), CVD, and other (largest) causes of death and may therefore be a useful clinical predictive marker. As absolute risk reductions varied across age, cause, and SRWP, certain groups may particularly benefit from interventions to increase SRWP.

Changing health related quality of life and outcomes in heart failure by age, sex and subtype.

Background: There are calls to integrate serial recordings of health related quality of life (HRQoL) into routine care, clinical trials and prognosis. Little is known about the relationship between change in HRQoL and outcomes in heart failure (HF) patients by age, sex and HF subtype. Method: From the Swedish Heart Failure Registry (SwedeHF; 2008-2019), patients were categorised by reduced (<40%, HFrEF), mildly-reduced (40-49%, HFmrEF) and preserved (≥50%, HFpEF) ejection fraction. HRQoL was measured using Euro-QoL-5D visual analogue scale (EQ5D-vas), collected at baseline and 1-year. Baseline EQ5D-vas scores were categorised by: "best" (76-100), "good" (51-75), "bad" (26-50), and "worst" (0-25). Change in EQ5D-vas was categorised as 'no significant change' (<5 points increase/decrease); some worsening (5-9 points decrease); considerable worsening (≥10 points decrease); some improvement (5-9 points increase); considerable improvement (≥10 points increase). Associations with admission and death were estimated and interactions with patient sub-groups tested. Findings: Among 23,553 patients (median age 74 [66-81] years, 8000 [34%] female), baseline EQ5D-vas was worse in older patients, women, and those with HFpEF compared to their respective counterparts. Compared to patients with the "best" EQ5D-vas, the adjusted associations for admission for those with "good", "bad" and "worst" EQ5D-vas were, respectively: HR 1.09 (1.04, 1.14), 1.27 (1.21, 1.33) and 1.39 (1.28, 1.51). Compared to no significant change in EQ5D-vas, the adjusted estimates for admission following some improvement, considerable improvement, some worsening and considerable worsening were, respectively: HR 0.91 (0.82, 1.01), 0.75 (0.70, 0.81), 1.04 (0.92, 1.16) and 1.25 (1.16, 1.35). Results were similar amongst groups and for HF admission and death. Interpretation: Change in HRQoL was an independent indicator of risk of admission and death in people with all HF subtypes, irrespective of age and sex. Funding: NIHR.

Kidney Function and Long-Term Risk of End-Stage Kidney Disease and Mortality in a Multiethnic Population.

Introduction: Contemporary differences between South Asian and White ethnicities in the incidence of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and mortality are poorly described. Methods: Data for all South Asian patients who had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measure after January 1, 2006, and 1 million randomly selected participants of other ethnicities were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). All participants were followed-up with from index date until ESKD, all-cause mortality, or end of study. All-cause mortality rate and ESKD incidence rate by age were described among Whites and South Asians, and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of these 2 outcomes by baseline eGFR estimated using Cox proportional hazard model. Results: A total of 40,888 South Asians and 236,634 Whites were followed for a median of 5.3 and 9.4 years for ESKD incidence and mortality outcomes, respectively. All-cause mortality rates were higher among Whites than South Asians; South Asian women aged between 70 and 85 years had a slightly higher ESKD incidence rate compared to their White counterparts. Compared to Whites with a baseline eGFR of 90 ml/min per 1.73 m2, adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were significantly lower among South Asians than Whites; however, adjusted HRs for ESKD incidence by baseline eGFR were similar in both ethnicities. Calculating South Asian eGFRs using an ethnicity-specific equation had no impact on the results. Conclusions: South Asians experience lower mortality than Whites but not substantially higher rates of ESKD. Further research is warranted to better understand the reasons for these ethnic differences and possible impacts on chronic kidney disease (CKD) service delivery and patient outcomes.

Antipsychotic drug prescribing and mortality in people with dementia before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a retrospective cohort study in Wales, UK.

BACKGROUND: Concerns have been raised that antipsychotic drug prescribing, which has been associated with increased mortality in people with dementia, might have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic due to social restrictions imposed to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used multisource, routinely collected health-care data from Wales, UK to investigate prescribing and mortality variations in people with dementia before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used individual-level, anonymised, population-scale linked health data to identify adults aged 60 years and older with a diagnosis of dementia in Wales, UK. We used the CVD-COVID-UK initiative to access Welsh routinely collected electronic health record data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Patients who were alive and registered with a SAIL general practice on Jan 1, 2016, and who received a dementia diagnosis before the age of 60 years and before or during the study period were included. We explored antipsychotic drug prescribing rate changes over 67 months, between Jan 1, 2016, and Aug 1, 2021, overall and stratified by age and dementia subtype. We used time-series analyses to examine all-cause and myocardial infarction and stroke mortality over the study period and identified the leading causes of death in people with dementia between Jan 1, 2020, and Aug 1, 2021. FINDINGS: Of 3 106 690 participants in SAIL between Jan 1, 2016 and Aug 1, 2021, 57 396 people (35 148 [61·2%] women and 22 248 [38·8%] men) met inclusion criteria for this study and contributed 101 428 person-years of follow-up. Of the 57 396 people with dementia, 11 929 (20·8%) were prescribed an antipsychotic drug at any point during follow-up. Accounting for seasonality, antipsychotic drug prescribing increased during the second half of 2019 and throughout 2020. However, the absolute difference in prescribing rates was small, ranging from 1253 prescriptions per 10 000 person-months in March, 2019, to 1305 per 10 000 person-months in September, 2020. All-cause mortality and stroke mortality increased throughout 2020, while myocardial infarction mortality declined. From Jan 1, 2020, to Aug 1, 2021, 1286 (17·1%) of 7508 participants who died had COVID-19 recorded as the underlying cause of death. INTERPRETATION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, antipsychotic drug prescribing in people with dementia in the UK increased slightly; however, it is unlikely that this was solely related to the pandemic and this increase was unlikely to be a major factor in the substantial increase in mortality during 2020. The long-term increase in antipsychotic drug prescribing in younger people and in those with Alzheimer's disease warrants further investigation using resources with access to more granular clinical data. Although deprescribing antipsychotic medications remains an essential aspect of dementia care, the results of this study suggest that changes in prescribing and deprescribing practices as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic are not required. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation (via the British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre led by Health Data Research UK), and the Scottish Neurological Research Fund.