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1.
Viruses ; 16(5)2024 04 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38793554

ABSTRACT

Monitoring the long-term changes in antibody and cellular immunity following Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is crucial for understanding immune mechanisms that prevent reinfection. In March 2023, we recruited 167 participants from the Changning District, Shanghai, China. A subset of 66 participants that were infected between November 2022 and January 2023 was selected for longitudinal follow-up. The study aimed to investigate the dynamics of the immune response, including neutralizing antibodies (NAbs), anti-spike (S)-immunoglobulin G (IgG), anti-S-IgM, and lymphocyte profiles, by analyzing peripheral blood samples collected three to seven months post infection. A gradual decrease in NAbs and IgG levels were observed from three to seven months post infection. No significant differences in NAbs and IgG titers were found across various demographics, including age, sex, occupation, and symptomatic presentation, across five follow-up assessments. Additionally, a strong correlation between NAbs and IgG levels was identified. Lymphocyte profiles showed a slight change at five months but had returned to baseline levels by seven months post infection. Notably, healthcare workers exhibited lower B-cell levels compared to police officers. Our study demonstrated that the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection persisted for at least seven months. Similar patterns in the dynamics of antibody responses and cellular immunity were observed throughout this period.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Neutralizing , Antibodies, Viral , COVID-19 , Immunoglobulin G , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , COVID-19/immunology , COVID-19/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Male , Antibodies, Viral/blood , Antibodies, Viral/immunology , Female , Antibodies, Neutralizing/blood , Antibodies, Neutralizing/immunology , Adult , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Immunoglobulin G/blood , Middle Aged , Longitudinal Studies , Immunoglobulin M/blood , Immunity, Cellular , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/immunology , Health Personnel
2.
Prev Med Rep ; 39: 102654, 2024 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38384963

ABSTRACT

The rotes of attempted and completed suicide among adolescents are increasing globally. Social support can help decrease the risk of adolescent suicide, but this aspect has been rarely studied in China. The present study aimed to use the Delphi methodology to establish a set of guidelines for the development of social support resources, with the goal of collectively reducing suicide risks among adolescents in Shanghai. We commenced the study in April 2021, established a research team, searched the keywords using Web of Science from 2016 to 2021 and ultimately designed a pre-evaluation index. Next, following Donabedian's Structure-Process-Outcome model, the research developed a questionnaire comprising 3 level-1, 12 level-2, and 73 level-3 indicators. Ten experts were enlisted to conduct three rounds of e-mail inquiries in order to finalize the indicator system, resulting in 2 level-1, 11 level-2, and 52 level-3 indicators, as well as expert consensus. Our findings indicate that the social support systems should include parents, schools, psychiatric hospitals, social organizations, and government departments, with the government sector being the most important ((M = 9.4). Furthermore, our study revealed that school counselors and psychologists play similar roles to psychiatrists within the interdisciplinary team (M ± S = 9.2 ± 1.1). As per the expert consensus, social support systems should strengthen government-led and interdisciplinary collaboration, prioritize suicide prevention in schools and encourage greater involvement from social organizations.

3.
Front Neurol ; 14: 1244192, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38046582

ABSTRACT

Background: Functional restoration of hemiplegic upper limbs is a difficult area in the field of neurological rehabilitation. Electrical stimulation is one of the treatments that has shown promising advancements and functional improvements. Most of the electrical stimulations used in clinical practice are surface stimulations. In this case, we aimed to investigate the feasibility of a minimally invasive, ultrasound-guided median nerve electrical stimulation (UG-MNES) in improving the upper limb motor function and activity of a patient with right-sided hemiparesis. Case presentation: A 65-year-old male recovering from a left massive intracerebral hemorrhage after open debridement hematoma removal had impaired right limb movement, right hemianesthesia, motor aphasia, dysphagia, and complete dependence on his daily living ability. After receiving 3 months of conventional rehabilitation therapy, his cognitive, speech, and swallowing significantly improved but the Brunnstrom Motor Staging (BMS) of his right upper limb and hand was at stage I-I. UG-MNES was applied on the right upper limb for four sessions, once per week, together with conventional rehabilitation. Immediate improvement in the upper limb function was observed after the first treatment. To determine the effect of UG-MNES on long-term functional recovery, assessments were conducted a week after the second and fourth intervention sessions, and motor function recovery was observed after 4-week of rehabilitation. After completing the full rehabilitation course, his BMS was at stage V-IV, the completion time of Jebsen Hand Function Test (JHFT) was shortened, and the scores of Fugl-Meyer Assessment for upper extremity (FMA-UE) and Modified Barthel Index (MBI) were increased. Overall, the motor function of the hemiplegic upper limb had significantly improved, and the right hand was the utility hand. Electromyography (EMG) and nerve conduction velocity (NCV) tests were normal before and after treatment. Conclusion: The minimally invasive, UG-MNES could be a new alternative treatment in stroke rehabilitation for functional recovery of the upper limbs.

4.
BMC Cancer ; 23(1): 425, 2023 May 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37165412

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Previously studies shown a potential risk of antihypertensive medicines in relation to cancer susceptibility, which creating significant debate in the scientific community and public concern. We sought to investigate the relationship between antihypertensive medicines and cancer risk, by drug type and class. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study and enrolled patients diagnosed with hypertension from community healthcare centers in Changning District, Shanghai, China. Antihypertensive drug administration were classified as five common antihypertensive drugs. The main outcomes were incidence of total cancer and by major cancer type. RESULTS: Between January 2013 and December 2017, a total of 101,370 hypertensive patients were enrolled in this cohort. During a mean follow-up of 5.1 (SD 1.3) years, 4970 cancer cases were newly diagnosed in the cohort. CCBs were the most frequently used antihypertensives which were associated with a moderately increased risk of total cancer (hazard ratio, HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.05-1.18). The second commonly used drug ARBs were also associated with increased risk of total cancer (HR = 1.10, 95%CI: 1.03-1.17) as well as lung and thyroid cancers (HR = 1.21, 95%CI: 1.05-1.39; HR = 1.62 95%CI: 1.18-2.21, respectively). No significant association was found between cancer and other antihypertensives. Hypertensive patients who use more than one class of antihypertensives drugs had a higher risk of total cancer (HR: 1.22, 95%CI: 1.10-1.35 for two classes; HR: 1.22, 95%CI: 1.03-1.45 for three or more classes), and a possible dose-response relationship was suggested (P for trend < 0.001). The risk of thyroid cancer was higher in hypertensive patients prescribed with three or more antihypertensive classes. CONCLUSIONS: Use of ARBs or CCBs may be associated with an increased risk of total cancer. Taking more than one class of antihypertensives drugs appeared to have a higher risk for total cancer.


Subject(s)
Hypertension , Thyroid Neoplasms , Humans , Antihypertensive Agents/adverse effects , Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors/therapeutic use , Cohort Studies , Calcium Channel Blockers/therapeutic use , Angiotensin Receptor Antagonists/therapeutic use , China/epidemiology , Hypertension/complications , Hypertension/drug therapy , Hypertension/epidemiology , Thyroid Neoplasms/drug therapy
5.
Diabetes Care ; 46(1): 75-82, 2023 01 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36378879

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The temporal pattern of cognitive and functional change before and after incident diabetes remains unknown. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data from wave 2 to wave 9 (2004-2018) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing were used. Global cognition (assessed by orientation, memory, and executive function) and daily functioning (calculated as the sum of impaired basic and instrumental activities of daily living) were measured in each wave. Incident diabetes was defined as glycated hemoglobin A1c ≥6.5% (47.5 mmol/mol), self-reported doctor diagnosis of diabetes, or glucose-lowering medication use during follow-up. RESULTS: Among the 6,342 participants (mean age 65.0 years, 57.8% women) included, 576 participants (9.1%) with incident diabetes were identified during a median follow-up of 13.3 years. The annual rates of change in global cognition (ß = -0.035 SD/year; 95% CI -0.054 to -0.015), orientation (-0.031 SD/year; -0.060 to -0.002), memory (-0.016 SD/year; -0.029 to -0.003), and executive function (-0.027 SD/year; -0.042 to -0.013) were accelerated after diabetes diagnosis compared with before the event. The postdiabetes annual changes in daily functioning (0.093 points/year; 95% CI 0.056-0.131) were also accelerated compared with the prediabetes diagnosis. However, the rate of cognitive and functional decline before the diabetes diagnosis in participants with future incident diabetes was similar to the rate in participants without diabetes. Also, no significant acute change was observed during its onset. CONCLUSIONS: Incident diabetes is associated with accelerated cognitive and functional decline after, but not before, the event. We suggest careful monitoring for cognitive and physical dysfunction after a diabetes diagnosis.


Subject(s)
Cognition Disorders , Cognitive Dysfunction , Diabetes Mellitus , Humans , Female , Aged , Male , Longitudinal Studies , Activities of Daily Living , Cognition , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology , Cognitive Dysfunction/epidemiology
6.
Front Aging Neurosci ; 14: 895188, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36118703

ABSTRACT

Background and aim: Previous studies on cardiovascular risk burden assessed by the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score (FGCRS) and cognitive trajectories mainly focus on Western populations and most of them have used a single measure of cardiovascular risk. In this study, among middle-aged and older Chinese, we investigated (i) the association of baseline FGCRS with subsequent cognitive decline and (ii) the association of FGCRS change with concomitant cognitive decline. Materials and methods: In wave 1 to wave 4 (2011-2018) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, global cognition was assessed by orientation, memory, and executive function. FGCRS was assessed and categorized into tertiles (low, intermediate, and high) at baseline (2011) and 4 years after (2015). Furthermore, external validation was performed to check its generalizability using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) 2008-2018. Results: In total, 6,402 participants with a mean [standard deviation (SD) age of 57.8 (8.4) years, 49.0% women] with complete baseline data and at least one reassessment of cognitive function were included. A 10% increment in baseline FGCRS was associated with a faster decline in global cognition (-0.010 SD/year, 95% CI -0.013, -0.008). Among 4,336 participants [mean (SD) age of 57.8 (8.2) years, 50.0% women] with data on FGCRS changes, compared to individuals with the consistently low FGCRS (reference group), a faster global cognition decline rate was observed in the low to intermediate group (-0.026 SD/year, 95% CI -0.045, -0.007), the low to high group (-0.052 SD/year, 95% CI -0.102, -0.001), the consistently intermediate group (-0.019 SD/year, 95% CI -0.033, -0.005), the intermediate to high group (-0.040 SD/year, 95% CI -0.058, -0.022), the high to intermediate group (-0.024 SD/year, 95% CI -0.047, -0.002), and the consistently high group (-0.047 SD/year, 95% CI -0.060, -0.034). Similar trends were observed for individual cognitive domains. Results from the external validation using the ELSA remained consistent. Conclusion: Higher baseline FGCRS was associated with faster cognitive decline. However, there was no consistent relationship between the direction of changes in FGCRS and cognitive decline.

7.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35873627

ABSTRACT

Peripheral electrical nerve stimulation enhances hand function during stroke rehabilitation. Here, we proposed a percutaneous direct median nerve stimulation guided by ultrasound (ultrasound-guided median nerve electrical stimulation, UG-MNES) and evaluated its feasibility and effectiveness in the treatment of stroke patients with upper limb extremity impairments. Sixty-three stroke patients (2-3 months of onset) were randomly divided into control and UG-MNES groups. Both groups received routine rehabilitation and the UG-MNES group received an additional ultrasound-guided electrical stimulation of the median nerve at 2 Hz, 0.2 ms pulse-width for 20 minutes with gradual intensity enhancement. The Fugl-Meyer Assessment for upper extremity motor function (FMA-UE) was used as the primary outcome. The secondary outcomes were the Functional Test for the Hemiplegic Upper Extremity (FTHUE-HK), Hand Function Rating Scale, Brunnstrom Stages, and Barthel Index scores for motor and daily functions. All the participants completed the trial without any side effects or adverse events during the intervention. After 4 weeks of intervention, the functions of the upper limbs on the hemiplegic side in both groups achieved significant recovery. Compared to the control group, all evaluation indices used in this trial were improved significantly in the UG-MNES group after 2 and 4 weeks of intervention; particularly, the first intervention of UG-MNES immediately improved all the assessment items significantly. In conclusion, the UG-MNES is a safe and feasible treatment for stroke patients with upper limb extremity impairments and could significantly improve the motor function of the affected upper limb, especially in the first intervention. The UG-MNES could be an effective alternative intervention for stroke with upper limb extremity impairments.

8.
Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) ; 13: 828403, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35464070

ABSTRACT

Background and Aim: Evidence about recently proposed data-driven clusters of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is mainly about its prognostic effects and Western populations. We tested the applicability of this clustering approach among the Chinese population. We further investigated the cardiorenal risk profiles among different T2D sub-phenotypes cross-sectionally and before diabetes diagnosis. Methods: With the use of data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1989-2009), 6,728 participants with available fasting blood samples and completed questionnaires in the 2009 survey were included. Glycemic statuses (normoglycemia, prediabetes, and new-onset T2D) were defined according to the 2020 American Diabetes Association criteria. Data-driven cluster analysis was conducted among new-onset T2D based on five variables: age at onset, body mass index (BMI), hemoglobin A1c, homeostasis model estimates of ß-cell function, and insulin resistance. Linear regression models were used to cross-sectionally examine the differences of cardiorenal risk factors (body fat distribution, blood pressure, lipid profiles, and kidney function) between glycemic statuses. Mixed-effects models were used to explore a maximum of 20-year trajectories of cardiovascular risk factors (body fat distribution and blood pressure) before diabetes diagnosis. Results: Among 557 (8.3%) new-onset T2D, four sub-phenotypes were found, with 57 (10.2%) assigned to the severe insulin-resistant diabetes (SIRD), 72 (12.9%) to the severe insulin-deficient diabetes (SIDD), 167 (30.0%) to the mild obesity-related diabetes (MOD), and 261 (46.9%) to the mild age-related diabetes (MARD). People clustered within different T2D sub-phenotypes had different cardiorenal risk profiles. Three T2D sub-phenotypes (SIRD, SIDD, and MOD) had worse cardiorenal abnormalities, while the risk burden in the MARD sub-phenotype was similar to that in prediabetes. Compared with people with other T2D sub-phenotypes, people in the MOD sub-phenotype had a faster increment in BMI, waist, upper arm circumference, and triceps skinfold up to 10 years before diagnosis. Blood pressure was less distinct in different T2D sub-phenotypes; however, SIDD and MOD clusters had higher blood pressure levels before diabetes diagnosis. Conclusions: Data-driven T2D sub-phenotyping is applicable in the Chinese population. Certain sub-phenotypes such as MARD only have a minor cardiorenal risk burden, and distinct cardiovascular risk development occurs long before diabetes diagnosis. Our findings can help improve early prevention and targeted treatment for diabetes.


Subject(s)
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Insulin Resistance , Prediabetic State , China/epidemiology , Humans , Insulin , Nutrition Surveys , Phenotype
9.
BMC Geriatr ; 21(1): 562, 2021 10 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34663235

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure targets for oldest-old people have been long debated due to the concern that more stringent targets are associated with increased mortality. We aimed to investigate the association between changes of late-life systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean SBP and SBP variability (SBPV), and all-cause mortality in oldest-old. METHODS: Based on the community-based Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey with follow-up conducted in the 3-year interval, we assembled a retrospective cohort of 6639 participants ≥ 80 years with available blood pressure measurements at baseline and second wave. The primary exposures were mean SBP and SBPV (defined as the annual difference in SBP divided by mean SBP) measured between baseline and second wave. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality assessed from the second wave. RESULTS: During 21443.1 person-years of follow-up, 4622 death was recorded. U-shaped associations of mortality with mean SBP and SBPV were identified; the value of 137 mmHg and 4.0 %/year conferred the minimum mortality risk, respectively. The associations of a larger SBPV with an increased mortality risk were observed for both rises and large falls in SBP. The hazard ratio was 1.11 (comparing lowest versus middle quintile; 95 % CI: 1.01, 1.22) with large falls in SBPV and 1.08 (comparing highest versus middle quintile; 95 % CI: 0.98, 1.18) with large rises in SBPV. CONCLUSIONS: U-shaped associations between late-life SBP and SBPV and all-cause mortality were found. Our study suggests that a stable SBP level in the middle range is related to lower mortality risk in the oldest-old.


Subject(s)
Hypertension , Aged, 80 and over , Blood Pressure , China/epidemiology , Humans , Longitudinal Studies , Proportional Hazards Models , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors
10.
BMC Geriatr ; 21(1): 536, 2021 10 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34627157

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The cognitive impact of changes in late-life blood pressure is less clear. We aimed to investigate the association between late-life blood pressure changing pattern and risk of cognitive impairment. METHODS: Using data from the community-based Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, change in systolic (SBP) or diastolic (DBP) blood pressure was calculated as the difference between follow-up and baseline, cognitive impairment was defined based on both the Mini-Mental State Examination and education level. The generalized additive model with penalized spline and multivariate logistic regression model were used, respectively, to examine the associations between continuous and categorized blood pressure changes with cognitive impairment at the follow-up wave. RESULTS: A total of 8493 Chinese elderly without cognitive impairment were included, with mean (standard deviation) age 80.6 (10.7) years. U-shaped associations between late-life blood pressure changes and risk of cognitive impairment were found, with only stable optimal blood pressure related to the lowest risk. For participants with baseline SBP around 130-150 mmHg, the adjusted odds ratio was 1.48 (1.13-1.93) for increasing follow-up SBP (> 150 mmHg), 1.28 (1.02-1.61) for decreasing follow-up SBP (< 130 mmHg), compared to stable follow-up SBP (130-150 mmHg). For participants with relative lower baseline DBP (< 80 mmHg), increasing their DBP to 80-90 mmHg during follow-up was associated with lower cognitive impairment risk (0.73 (0.58-0.93)), compared to steady low follow-up DBP (< 80 mmHg). Sex-specific analysis suggested that men were more vulnerable in term of SBP change. CONCLUSIONS: Adhering to a stable optimal level of blood pressure in late-life is related to lower risk of cognitive impairment in Chinese elderly.


Subject(s)
Cognitive Dysfunction , Hypertension , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Blood Pressure , China/epidemiology , Cognitive Dysfunction/diagnosis , Cognitive Dysfunction/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Hypertension/diagnosis , Hypertension/epidemiology , Longitudinal Studies , Male , Odds Ratio
11.
Expert Rev Vaccines ; 18(11): 1187-1199, 2019 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31674844

ABSTRACT

Objectives: China has made remarkable achievements in the field of immunization. However, several widespread vaccine safety-related events have recently received worldwide attention and reflect flaws in vaccine management. This study aimed to summarize vaccine safety-related events between 1985 and 2018 in China and analyze the profit motives of these events.Methods. Literature and media reviews were conducted to discover vaccine safety-related events. We developed a conceptual model with profit-related variables, and using information available from each event, we identified which profit-related variable was implicated, and how it related to the pursuit of higher profits.Results: A total of 39 vaccine safety-related events were found in vaccine production, procurement, transportation, and daily management, along with adverse events following immunization (AEFIs). Overall, 90% (35/39) of the events could be classified as profit-driven. The motives of most events could be tied to one or more reasons, including decreasing costs among vaccine producers (67%, 26/39), reducing actual procurement price (67%, 26/39), and reducing costs of transportation and/or cold chain (24/39, 62%).Conclusions: In order to deal with vaccine-related challenges, a more restrictive supervision system on vaccine production and more emergency preparedness, including health and risk communication strategies, for vaccine safety should be implemented.


Subject(s)
Commerce/economics , Drug-Related Side Effects and Adverse Reactions/economics , Drug-Related Side Effects and Adverse Reactions/prevention & control , Technology, Pharmaceutical/economics , Vaccines/adverse effects , Vaccines/economics , China , Drug-Related Side Effects and Adverse Reactions/epidemiology , Humans , Vaccines/administration & dosage
12.
Vaccines (Basel) ; 7(3)2019 Aug 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31450855

ABSTRACT

Internationally, vaccine pricing is relatively opaque, although many low- or lower-middle-income countries belong to international consortiums that jointly procure vaccines. China procures vaccines domestically, and vaccines that require payment from the public ("category 2 vaccines"), have undergone several regulatory changes over the past 15 years. This study aims to describe the vaccine procurement method changes in China since 2005 and to analyze how the procurement method impacted vaccine price. This review of vaccine procurement reforms found that a shift to provincial-level Group Purchasing Organizations after 2016 was accompanied by an increase in most prices. There was more variability in vaccine prices across provinces for vaccines with only one supplier, and these vaccines have a higher price than what is found in United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)-supported countries. China's current procurement system for non-mandatory vaccines leaves these vaccines costing several-fold more than in other countries, and in particular those supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. Exploring a variety of methods to reduce vaccine purchase prices will not only directly benefit the general population, but also the government, as they aim to implement more programs to benefit public health in a cost-effective manner.

13.
Article in Chinese | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23236812

ABSTRACT

This paper reports the process of diagnosis and treatment of a patient with elephantiasis of bilateral lower limbs and scrotum and the result of epidemiological investigation.


Subject(s)
Elephantiasis/pathology , Scrotum/pathology , Elephantiasis/etiology , Humans , Lower Extremity , Male , Middle Aged
14.
Article in Chinese | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18637584

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To explore the spatial pattern of the distribution of Oncomelania hupensis population in marshland and lake region. METHODS: Four bottomlands were selected randomly for the investigation along the Qiupu River in Guichi District, Anhui Province. The quadrats were placed randomly for snail survey, and the mean crowding, mean density, aggregation indices (diffusion coefficient (C), morisita index (Idelta), index of patchiness (m*/m) ), Taylor's power law and Iwao's m*-m regression index were analyzed. RESULTS: For 4 bottomlands in different time, the diffusion coefficients, Morisita indices, and m*/m indices were all more than one. There was a close linear relationship between the logarithm of the snail density and its variance (P < 0.01), and the correlation coefficient was 0.972. In Taylor's power law, the lg a was 0.602 and b was 1.427. There was a close linear relationship between the mean crowding (m*) and the snail density (m) (P < 0.01), and the correlation coefficient, alpha and beta was 0.984, 2.367 and 1.617 respectively. CONCLUSION: The spatial pattern of Oncomelania hupensis population shows an aggregation distribution in marshland and lake region, and the basic components of snail distribution are in colonies.


Subject(s)
Ecosystem , Snails/growth & development , Animals , China , Environmental Monitoring , Fresh Water/parasitology , Population Density , Population Dynamics , Wetlands
15.
Parasitol Int ; 57(2): 121-31, 2008 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18187358

ABSTRACT

A model has been developed for predicting the density of Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host snail of Schistosoma japonicum. The model takes into account different environmental factors, including elevation, air and soil temperature, type of vegetation, mean height of preponderant vegetation and soil humidity. Deviance and Akaike information criteria were used to determine the best model fits. Model diagnostics and internal and external validations of model efficiency were also performed. From the final prediction model, two important results emerge. First, air temperature should be used with care to study the distribution of O. hupensis and to predict its potential survival because the impact is indirect, and it is weaker and more unstable than soil temperature. Second, the more important environmental factor for O. hupensis prediction at the microscale is soil humidity, but the more important macroscale environmental factor is soil temperature. This finding might help in selecting different environmental features for studying O. hupensis at different spatial scales. Our model is promising for predicting the density of O. hupensis, and hence can provide more objective information about snail dispersal, which might eventually replace the tedious and imprecise field work for annual surveillance of O. hupensis.


Subject(s)
Fresh Water , Models, Biological , Snails/growth & development , Animals , China , Disease Vectors , Ecosystem , Linear Models , Predictive Value of Tests , Schistosoma japonicum , Schistosomiasis japonica/parasitology , Schistosomiasis japonica/transmission , Snails/parasitology , Snails/physiology , Soil/analysis , Temperature , Water/analysis
16.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi ; 41(5): 365-70, 2007 Sep.
Article in Chinese | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18206006

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To study the prediction model of O. hupensis in the lake and marshland regions in order to provide methodological basis for quantitative study of O. hupensis. METHODS: The research sites were randomly selected from the bottomlands along Qiupu River in the Guichi District, Anhui Province. A random and stratified sampling method was administrated according to the type of vegetation; the frame size of snail survey was 0.11 m2. Snail data was collected by crosscheck-random sampling inspection survey. Elevation, soil temperature and air temperature, height of vegetation, soil humidity and types of vegetation were measured through GPS machine, T&D Recorder for Windows, tape measure and attemperator. All the data were doubly inputted into the computer and checked. The final dataset for developing the prediction model was set up after necessary data preprocessing, such as, recoding the variable of elevation. The generalized linear models were used to develop the prediction model, and the statistics of deviance and AIC were used to determine the best model structure. Model diagnostics and model evaluation of efficiency were performed with the determined best model structure. RESULTS: The sample size was 162, and there were 6 explanatory variable including 2 categorical variables and 4 quantitative variables. A complicated relationship was observed among all the variables. Snail was positively associated with height of vegetation (r = 0.36), while negatively associated with soil humidity (r = - 0.22), and the air temperature had a close positive relations with soil temperature (r = 0.59), and the soil temperature was negatively associated with height of vegetation (r = - 0.36), the soil humidity had negative relations with the soil and air temperature (r = -0.34 and -0.12). The best structure fitting for the liner model selected in gamma distribution was the error distribution, reciprocal as the conjunction function in mathematics, and the mean square as the variance function. The results showed that the elevation, soil humidity, soil temperature, types and the height of vegetation were statistically significant to predict the O. hupensis, while t-values were -3.202, 3.124, -1.989, 2.668 and -2.371, respectively, and P-values were 0.00166, 0.00214, 0.04849, 0.00846 and 0.01897 respectively. CONCLUSION: The generalized linear models can be used to develop the predictive model, which could broaden the area of quantitative study for O. hupensis.


Subject(s)
Environmental Monitoring/methods , Geographic Information Systems , Snails , Animals , Models, Statistical , Wetlands
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