Environmental sympatry through time: spatio-temporal distribution and conservation status of two sympatric anuran species (Leptodactylidae) in South America / Simpatría ambiental a través del tiempo: distribución espacio-temporal y estado de conservación de dos especies de anuros simpátricos (Leptodactylidae) en América del Sur

Abstract Introduction: Leptodactylus latinasus and Physalaemus cuqui are sympatric anuran species with similar environmental requirements and contrasting reproductive modes. Climatic configuration determines distribution patterns and promotes sympatry of environmental niches, but specificity/selectivity determines the success of reproductive modes. Species distribution models (SDM) are a valuable tool to predict spatio-temporal distributions based on the extrapolation of environmental predictors. Objectives: To determine the spatio-temporal distribution of environmental niches and assess whether the protected areas of the World Database of Protected Areas (WDPA) allow the conservation of these species in the current scenario and future. Methods: We applied different algorithms to predict the distribution and spatio-temporal overlap of environmental niches of L. latinasus and P. cuqui within South America in the last glacial maximum (LGM), middle-Holocene, current and future scenarios. We assess the conservation status of both species with the WDPA conservation units. Results: All applied algorithms showed high performance for both species (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). The L. latinasus predictions showed wide environmental niches from LGM to the current scenario (49 % stable niches, 37 % gained niches, and 13 % lost niches), suggesting historical fidelity to stable climatic-environmental regions. In the current-future transition, L. latinasus would increase the number of stable (70 %) and lost (20 %) niches, suggesting fidelity to lowland regions and a possible trend toward microendemism. P. cuqui loses environmental niches from the LGM to the current scenario (25 %) and in the current-future transition (63 %), increasing the environmental sympathy between both species; 31 % spatial overlap in the current scenario and 70 % in the future. Conclusion: Extreme drought events and rainfall variations, derived from climate change, suggest the loss of environmental niches for these species that are not currently threatened but are not adequately protected by conservation units. The loss of environmental niches increases spatial sympatry which represents a new challenge for anurans and the conservation of their populations.

Resumen Introducción: Leptodactylus latinasus y Physalaemus cuqui son especies de anuros simpátricos con requerimientos ambientales similares y modos reproductivos contrastantes. La configuración climática determina los patrones de distribución y promueve la simpatría de los nichos ambientales, pero la especificidad/selectividad determina el éxito de los modos reproductivos. Los modelos de distribución de especies (MDE) son una herramienta valiosa para predecir distribuciones espacio-temporales basadas en la extrapolación de predictores ambientales. Objetivos: Determinar la distribución espacio-temporal de los nichos ambientales y evaluar si las áreas protegidas de la base de Datos Mundial de Áreas Protegidas (DMAP) permiten la conservación de estas especies en el escenario actual y futuro. Métodos: Aplicamos diferentes algoritmos para predecir la distribución y superposición espacio-temporal de nichos ambientales de L. latinasus y P. cuqui dentro de América del Sur en el último máximo glacial (UGM), Holoceno medio, actual y futuro. Evaluamos el estado de conservación de ambas especies con las unidades de conservación de la DMAP. Resultados: Todos los algoritmos aplicados mostraron un alto rendimiento para ambas especies (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). Las predicciones de L. latinasus mostraron amplios nichos ambientales desde LGM hasta el escenario actual (49 % de nichos estables, 37 % de nichos ganados y 13 % de nichos perdidos), sugiriendo fidelidad histórica por regiones climático-ambientales estables. En la transición actual-futura L. latinasus incrementaría la cantidad de nichos estables (70 %) y perdidos (20 %), sugiriendo fidelidad por regiones de tierras bajas y la posible tendencia hacia el microendemismo. P. cuqui pierde nichos ambientales desde el LGM al escenario actual (25 %) y en la transición actual-futura (63 %), incrementando la simpatría ambiental entre ambas especies; 31 % de superposición espacial en el escenario actual y 70 % en el futuro. Conclusión: Los eventos de sequía extrema y las variaciones de precipitaciones, derivados del cambio climático, sugieren la pérdida de nichos ambientales para estas especies, actualmente no se encuentran amenazadas, pero no están adecuadamente protegidas por las unidades de conservación. La pérdida de nichos ambientales aumenta la simpatría espacial que representa un nuevo desafío para estos anuros y la conservación de sus poblaciones.

Global warming and coastal protected areas: A study on phytoplankton abundance and sea surface temperature in different regions of the Brazilian South Atlantic Coastal Ocean.

In this study, we examined the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and phytoplankton abundance in coastal regions of the Brazilian South Atlantic: São Paulo, Paraná, and Santa Catarina, and the Protection Area of Southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) in Santa Catarina (APA), a conservation zone established along 130 km of coastline. Using SST and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) data from 2002 to 2023, we found significant differences in SST between the regions, with São Paulo having the highest SST, followed by Paraná and Santa Catarina. All locations showed a consistent increase in SST over the years, with North Santa Catarina, APA and São Paulo experiencing the lowest rate of increase. Correlation analyses between SST and Chl-a revealed a stronger inverse relationship in North Santa Catarina and APA, indicating an increased response of Chl-a to SST variations in this region. The presence of protected area appears to play an essential role in reducing the negative impacts of increasing SST. Specifically, while there is a wealth of research on the consequences of global warming on diverse coastal and oceanic areas, heterogeneity among different settings persists and the causes for this necessitating attention. Our findings have implications for both localized scientific approaches and broader climate policies, emphasizing the importance of considering coastal ecosystem resilience to climate change in future conservation and adaptation strategies.

Long-term sustainability of the water-agriculture-energy nexus in Brazil's MATOPIBA region: A case study using system dynamics.

The global demand for agricultural commodities has driven extensive land conversion to agriculture in Brazil, especially in the MATOPIBA region. This area encompasses the Rio Grande Basin, a major tributary of the São Francisco Basin that is known for expanding intensive irrigated agriculture and hydropower generation. However, recent data reveal declining precipitation and aquifer recharge, potentially exacerbating ongoing water and land conflicts. This study investigates the long-term sustainability of agricultural expansion amid the worsening water scarcity using a system dynamics model. Findings suggest that rising costs and decreasing profits due to irrigation water shortages may hinder the expansion of irrigated land. By 2040, the irrigation demand may remain partly unmet, while downstream flow and baseflow could decrease. Additionally, agricultural expansion will significantly raise energy demand, posing a developmental challenge. We suggest that ensuring the sustainability of the Rio Grande Basin depends on improved water management and exploring alternative energy sources to address existing constraints.

Changes in Skin Test Aeroallergen Sensitization in Mexico Over the Past 14 Years and According to Climate.

Introduction: Aeroallergen exposure has an intra- and extra-domiciliary component and varies according to climatological zones. Mexico is a large country with a great variety of climates. A previous study (2009) evaluated skin prick test results (SPT) in different regions. In this study, we compare previous sensitization patterns from 14y ago with current ones and compare them between different climatological zones. Methods: Mexican allergists were asked to share their last 100 SPT results in patients with respiratory allergy. Clinics were grouped in (semi)humid vs (semi)dry zones. Results were analyzed nationwide and compared to the 2009 results, calculating odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), with p <0.05 as cut-off. Similarly, we compared (semi)humid versus dry zones. Results: We collected 2915 SPT results from 28 clinics (19 cities). Dermatophagoides was the most frequently sensitizing allergen. There was a significant increase in SPT positivity from 2009 to 2023 in both in- and outdoor aeroallergens (OR 1.26-2.65, 95% CI from 1.06-1.50 to 1.99-3.52). Comparing dry-humid zones, sensitization to pollen from Oleaceae, Fagaceae (p < 0.0001 all) and most weeds is more frequent in humid zones, as are Dermatophagoides and cockroach (both p < 0.0001). Eucalyptus, mesquite, and all grass pollen sensitizations predominate in dry zones (p < 0.05-0.0001). There are no differences in sensitization to cat or dog between zones. Conclusion: We found a general increase in SPT sensitization over the past fourteen years, suggesting that this is probably not only due to climate change. The different sensitization profile throughout the country was mainly related to humidity. Repeating epidemiologic SPT studies over the years could help tracking changes in allergen sensitization over time.

Observed declines in body size have differential effects on survival and recruitment, but no effect on population growth in tropical birds.

Declines in body size can be an advantageous physiological response to warming temperatures, or a result of physiological and nutritional stress. Either way, studies often assume that these climate-induced trait changes have important implications for fitness and demography. We leveraged almost three decades of capture-mark-recapture data of 51 bird species in Panama to examine if body size has changed through time, how sensitive body size is to changes in weather, and if body size impacts population demography. We evaluated two metrics of body size, structural size (wing length), and body condition (residual body mass). Over the study, wing length changed in varying directions for 88% of species (23 decrease, 22 increase), but the effects were weak, and change was only significant for two species. Conversely, body condition declined for 88% of species (45), effects were stronger, and that change was significant for 22% of species (11). This suggests that nutritional stress is likely the cause of changes in body size, not an adaptive response to warming. Precipitation metrics impacted body condition across three of our four feeding guilds, while wing length was only impacted by weather metrics for two guilds. This suggests that body condition is more sensitive to change in weather metrics compared to wing length. Lastly, we found that the impact of changes in body size on survival and recruitment was variable across species, but these relationships were in the opposite direction, ultimately resulting in no change in population growth for all but one species. Thus, while different stages (adult survival and recruitment) of populations may be impacted by body size, populations appear to be buffered from changes. The lack of an effect on population growth rate suggests that populations may be more resilient to changes in body size, with implications for population persistence under expected climate change.

Effect of street trees shade on perceived thermal comfort in a south temperate climate: The sidewalks of Montevideo (Uruguay).

The use of vegetation in cities is one of the most promising strategies for urban climate change adaptation and mitigation. Tree shade influences heat storage from surfaces reducing long wave radiation emission which directly affects people. People 's heat perception depends more on insolation and the temperature of surrounding objects than on air temperature itself. There is a need for analyzes that include the combined effects of physical and human variables on thermal comfort, as well as location-based studies to address its climatic and social conditions. In order to compare the effect of the trees on microenvironmental temperature and perceived thermal comfort, we measured physical parameters and performed structured interviews on three downtown streets of Montevideo, Uruguay, which had sections with and without trees on four dates during the summer. Generally, people surveyed under both treatments stated they did not feel fully comfortable due to summer heat, but the proportion of people who stated feeling in thermal comfort under tree shade was more than double than the unshaded sections. The seasonal ARIMA analysis supported that the tree shade reduced the microenvironmental temperature by its effect on radiant temperature. By using a statistical decision tree methodology that combines all the variables in the same analysis, we found a greater impact of physical variables than personal variables on people's thermal comfort and thermal preferences. We also identified gender as a significant variable that affects people's thermal preferences, where 46.4 % of females preferred a slightly colder environment.

Effect of Heat Stress on Lactating and Non-Lactating Blackbelly Ewes under Tropical Conditions during Summer.

Two groups of ewes (10 lactating and 10 non-lactating) were used to evaluate the effect of heat stress during summer under tropical conditions. In this study, a temperature and humidity index (THI) was found that ranged between 65 and 79 (morning and afternoon). Likewise, a heat tolerance coefficient (HTC) of 6 units was observed. The highest breathing frequency (BF; 115.46 ± 35.25 breaths per minute (bpm)) and rectal temperature (RT; 38.95 ± 0.51 °C) were found during the afternoon in the group of lactating ewes. The means were compared by group, time of the day, and interaction, and only significant differences were found between groups for RT and udder temperature (p < 0.001). In the case of time of day, all parameters were higher during the afternoon, regardless of the group of ewes (p < 0.001). Likewise, an interaction was found in the parameters RT, right paralumbar fossa (RPF), rump, leg, and udder (p < 0.001). In conclusion, Blackbelly ewes lactating during the summer in the tropics have higher skin temperatures, and also raise BF and RT to tolerate HS in tropical climates.

Organic matter decay and bacterial community succession in mangroves under simulated climate change scenarios.

Mangroves are coastal environments that provide resources for adjacent ecosystems due to their high productivity, organic matter decomposition, and carbon cycling by microbial communities in sediments. Since the industrial revolution, the increase of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) released due to fossil fuel burning led to many environmental abnormalities such as an increase in average temperature and ocean acidification. Based on the hypothesis that climate change modifies the microbial diversity associated with decaying organic matter in mangrove sediments, this study aimed to evaluate the microbial diversity under simulated climate change conditions during the litter decomposition process and the emission of GHG. Thus, microcosms containing organic matter from the three main plant species found in mangroves throughout the State of São Paulo, Brazil (Rhizophora mangle, Laguncularia racemosa, and Avicennia schaueriana) were incubated simulating climate changes (increase in temperature and pH). The decay rate was higher in the first seven days of incubation, but the differences between the simulated treatments were minor. GHG fluxes were higher in the first ten days and higher in samples under increased temperature. The variation in time resulted in substantial impacts on α-diversity and community composition, initially with a greater abundance of Gammaproteobacteria for all plant species despite the climate conditions variations. The PCoA analysis reveals the chronological sequence in ß-diversity, indicating the increase of Deltaproteobacteria at the end of the process. The GHG emission varied in function of the organic matter source with an increase due to the elevated temperature, concurrent with the rise in the Deltaproteobacteria population. Thus, these results indicate that under the expected climate change scenario for the end of the century, the decomposition rate and GHG emissions will be potentially higher, leading to a harmful feedback loop of GHG production. This process can happen independently of an impact on the bacterial community structure due to these changes.

Effect of simulated extreme rainfall on the vegetative phenology of perennial and annual herbaceous plants from a Brazilian dry forest.

Detecting changes in the phenological responses of herbaceous species as a function of predicted climate change is important for forecasting future scenarios for the functioning of dry tropical forests, especially when predicting an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme droughts. Because of the sensitivity of plants to water availability, our study hypothesizes that if years become drier or wetter, herbaceous plants will synchronously change the onset, duration, and intensity of their vegetative phenophases. We used a historical series of 60 years of precipitation observations for the Caatinga vegetation to define daily average of precipitation for rainy (Twet), median (Tcontrol), and dry (Tdry) years. We simulated past average daily rainfall (Twet, Tcontrol, and Tdry) while growing two herbaceous perennials and two herbaceous annuals. We monitored plant growth and measured the activity (absence or presence) and intensity of vegetative phenophases. We used circular statistical analysis to assess differences between treatments. Our results revealed that leaf production was seasonal but relatively uniform for perennial species and highly seasonal (wet season) for annual species. Simulated dry years induced lower leaf emergence concentrated over a few months in annual species, but this effect was more strongly significant in one of the two perennial species. Both annual and perennial species can experience delayed and less intense leaf abscission during the rainy season in years with below-average precipitation. In contrast, large voluminous rains in years with above-average precipitation can accelerate and intensify the process of leaf renewal. If future precipitation reductions occur, the changes in phenological response indicate that the cover of annual and perennial herbaceous species in this study will likely decrease, altering the landscape and functioning of dry tropical forests. However, the potential trade-offs observed may help populations of these species to persist during years of severe drought in the Caatinga.

Endophytic Fungi for Crops Adaptation to Abiotic Stresses.

Endophytic fungi (EFs) have emerged as promising modulators of plant growth and stress tolerance in agricultural ecosystems. This review synthesizes the current knowledge on the role of EFs in enhancing the adaptation of crops to abiotic stress. Abiotic stresses, such as drought, salinity, and extreme temperatures, pose significant challenges to crop productivity worldwide. EFs have shown remarkable potential in alleviating the adverse effects of these stresses. Through various mechanisms, including the synthesis of osmolytes, the production of stress-related enzymes, and the induction of plant defense mechanisms, EFs enhance plant resilience to abiotic stressors. Moreover, EFs promote nutrient uptake and modulate the hormonal balance in plants, further enhancing the stress tolerance of the plants. Recent advancements in molecular techniques have facilitated the identification and characterization of stress-tolerant EF strains, paving the way for their utilization in agricultural practices. Furthermore, the symbiotic relationship between EFs and plants offers ecological benefits, such as improved soil health and a reduced dependence on chemical inputs. However, challenges remain in understanding the complex interactions between EFs and host plants, as well as in scaling up their application in diverse agricultural systems. Future research should focus on elucidating the mechanisms underlying endophytic-fungal-mediated stress tolerance and developing sustainable strategies for harnessing their potential in crop production.

Exploring the Nexus between Food Systems and the Global Syndemic among Children under Five Years of Age through the Complex Systems Approach.

The intricate relationship between food systems and health outcomes, known as the food-nutrition-health nexus, intersects with environmental concerns. However, there's still a literature gap in evaluating food systems alongside the global syndemic using the complex systems theory, especially concerning vulnerable populations like children. This research aimed to design a system dynamics model to advance a theoretical understanding of the connections between food systems and the global syndemic, particularly focusing on their impacts on children under five years of age. The framework was developed through a literature review and authors' insights into the relationships between the food, health, and environmental components of the global syndemic among children. The conceptual model presented 17 factors, with 26 connections and 6 feedback loops, categorized into the following 5 groups: environmental, economic, school-related, family-related, and child-related. It delineated and elucidated mechanisms among the components of the global syndemic encompassing being overweight, suffering from undernutrition, and climate change. The findings unveiled potential interactions within food systems and health outcomes. Furthermore, the model integrated elements of the socio-ecological model by incorporating an external layer representing the environment and its natural resources. Consequently, the development of public policies and interventions should encompass environmental considerations to effectively tackle the complex challenges posed by the global syndemic.

Hot, dry, and salty: The present and future of an Extremophile model lizard from Argentina.

Global warming poses a threat to lizard populations by raising ambient temperatures above historical norms and reducing thermoregulation opportunities. Whereas the reptile fauna of desert systems is relatively well studied, the lizard fauna of saline environments has not received much attention and-to our knowledge-thermal ecology and the effects of global warming on lizards from saline environments have not been yet addressed. This pioneer study investigates the thermal ecology, locomotor performance and potential effects of climate warming on Liolaemus ditadai, a lizard endemic to one of the largest salt flats on Earth. We sampled L. ditadai using traps and active searches along its known distribution, as well as in other areas within Salinas Grandes and Salinas de Ambargasta, where the species had not been previously recorded. Using ensemble models (GAM, MARS, RandomForest), we modeled climatically suitable habitats for L. ditadai in the present and under a pessimistic future scenario (SSP585, 2070). L. ditadai emerges as an efficient thermoregulator, tolerating temperatures near its upper thermal limits. Our ecophysiological model suggests that available activity hours predict its distribution, and the projected temperature increase due to global climate change should minimally impact its persistence or may even have a positive effect on suitable thermal habitat. However, this theoretical increase in habitat could be linked to the distribution of halophilous scrub in the future. Our surveys reveal widespread distribution along the borders of Salinas Grandes and Salinas de Ambargasta, suggesting a potential presence along the entire border of both salt plains wherever halophytic vegetation exists. Optimistic model results, extended distribution, and no evidence of flood-related adverse effects offer insights into assessing the conservation status of L. ditadai, making it and the Salinas Grandes system suitable models for studying lizard ecophysiology in largely unknown saline environments.

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects across Brazilian biomes.

We present a methodology designed to study the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. Our approach involves decomposing the observed changes in temperature patterns into multiple trend, cycle, and seasonal components within a spatio-temporal model. We apply this method to test the hypothesis of a global long-term temperature trend against multiple trends in distinct biomes. Applying this methodology, we delve into the examination of heterogeneity of climate change in Brazil-a country characterized by a spectrum of climate zones. The findings challenge the notion of a global trend, revealing the presence of distinct trends in warming effects, and more accelerated trends for the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, indicating a composition between global warming and deforestation in determining changes in permanent temperature patterns.

Fish and tips: Historical and projected changes in commercial fish species' habitat suitability in the Southern Hemisphere.

Global warming has significantly altered fish distribution patterns in the ocean, shifting towards higher latitudes and deeper waters. This is particularly relevant in high-latitude marine ecosystems, where climate-driven environmental changes are occurring at higher rates than the global average. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are increasingly being used for predicting distributional shifts in habitat suitability for marine species as a response to climate change. Here, we used SDMs to project habitat suitability changes for a range of high-latitude, pelagic and benthopelagic commercial fish species and crustaceans (10 species); from 1850 to two future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6: low climate forcing; and SSP5-8.5: high climate forcing). The study includes 11 Large Marine Ecosystems (LME) spanning South America, Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. We identified declining and southward-shifting patterns in suitable habitat areas for most species, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and for some species such as Argentine hake (Merluccius hubbsi) in South America, or snoek (Thyrsites atun) off Southern Africa. Geographical constraints will likely result in species from Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand facing the most pronounced habitat losses due to rising sea surface temperatures (SST). In contrast, South American species might encounter greater opportunities for migrating southward. Additionally, the SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts that South America will be more environmentally stable compared to other regions. Overall, our findings suggest that the Patagonian shelf could serve as a climate refuge, due to higher environmental stability highlighting the importance of proactive management strategies in this area for species conservation. This study significantly contributes to fisheries and conservation management, providing valuable insights for future protection efforts in the Southern Hemisphere.

Plant development and reproduction in a changing environment.

Plants face the most diverse climatic conditions throughout their life cycle. As sessile organisms, they are remarkably resilient to adverse environments, which have been exacerbated in the current context of global change. The way in which plants sense and respond to various types of abiotic stresses varies depending on the severity of the stress and the developmental stage of the plant, affecting both vegetative and reproductive aspects. Understanding how plants respond and adapt to a changing environment is crucial for predicting and mitigating the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and ensuring the future survival and reproduction of plant species.

Rainfall seasonality dominates critical precipitation threshold for the Amazon forest in the LPJmL vegetation model.

Understanding the Amazon Rainforest's response to shifts in precipitation is paramount with regard to its sensitivity to climate change and deforestation. Studies using Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) typically only explore a range of socio-economically plausible pathways. In this study, we applied the state-of-the-art DGVM LPJmL to simulate the Amazon forest's response under idealized scenarios where precipitation is linearly decreased and subsequently increased between current levels and zero. Our results indicate a nonlinear but reversible relationship between vegetation Above Ground Biomass (AGB) and Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP), suggesting a threshold at a critical MAP value, below which vegetation biomass decline accelerates with decreasing MAP. We find that approaching this critical threshold is accompanied by critical slowing down, which can hence be expected to warn of accelerating biomass decline with decreasing rainfall. The critical precipitation threshold is lowest in the northwestern Amazon, whereas the eastern and southern regions may already be below their critical MAP thresholds. Overall, we identify the seasonality of precipitation and the potential evapotranspiration (PET) as the most important parameters determining the threshold value. While vegetation fires show little effect on the critical threshold and the biomass pattern in general, the ability of trees to adapt to water stress by investing in deep roots leads to increased biomass and a lower critical threshold in some areas in the eastern and southern Amazon where seasonality and PET are high. Our findings underscore the risk of Amazon forest degradation due to changes in the water cycle, and imply that regions that are currently characterized by higher water availability may exhibit heightened vulnerability to future drying.

Impact of heat waves on semen quality: A retrospective study in Argentina between 2005 and 2023.

Heat waves, defined as periods with daily temperatures surpassing the historical average for a specific region, have become more frequent worldwide in recent years. Previous studies have reported a negative association between temperature and semen quality, but the focus has mainly been on Asian and European populations. The study included 54,926 men (18-60 years) undergoing routine semen analysis between 2005 and 2023 at CEUSA-LAEH andrology unit, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Hourly temperature readings were provided by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. R programming (R Studio v2022.07.2) was used to define heat waves, calculate key characteristics, visualize results, and perform statistical tests at the IBYME laboratory. During the period studied, a total of 124 days had heat waves (defined after at least 3 consecutive days with 32.3 °C and 22 °C). Men exposed to heat waves during spermatogenesis exhibited lower sperm number (concentration and count; P < 0.0001) and decreased normal morphology (percentage of normal sperm and normal motile count; P < 0.05) compared to those not exposed. These differences were most pronounced between semen samples from years with several heat waves (2013, 2023) and none (2005, 2007, 2016), displaying 4-5 times higher fold changes (P < 0.05). Further analysis employing multiple regression revealed a significantly negative association between semen quality and heat wave length, suggesting that a prolonged exposure may be more detrimental than an acute exposure. Subsequent analysis focusing on prolonged exposure (≥6-days heat wave) during spermatogenesis revealed a negative (P < 0.05) association between early exposure (spermatocytogenesis: 64-90 days prior semen collection) and semen quality. This study underscores the negative association between early exposure to heat waves during sperm development and semen quality, raising concerns about its possible association with the worldwide declining male fertility. A comprehensive collaborative approach is crucial, involving global governmental policies, sustainable practices, and coordinated efforts across scientific, healthcare, and policy domains.

Population decline of the saguaro cactus throughout its distribution is associated with climate change.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Climate change is a global phenomenon species are experiencing, which in arid regions will translate into more frequent and intense drought. The Sonoran Desert is becoming hotter and drier, and many organisms are rapidly changing in abundance and distribution. These population attributes directly depend on the dynamics of the population, which in turn depends on the vital rates of its individuals; yet few studies have documented the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of keystone species such as the saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea). Although saguaros have traits that enable them to withstand present environmental conditions, climate change could make them vulnerable if forced beyond their tolerance limits. METHODS: We evaluated the effect of climate change on 13 saguaro populations spanning most of the species' distribution range. Using field data from 2014 to 2016, we built an integral projection model (IPM) describing the environmentally-explicit dynamics of the populations. We used this IPM, along with projections of two climate change and one no-change scenarios, to predict population sizes (N) and growth rates (λ) from 2017 to 2099 and compared these scenarios to demonstrate the effect of climate change on saguaro's future. KEY RESULTS: We found that all populations will decline, mainly due to future increases in drought, mostly hindering recruitment. However, the decline will be differential across populations, since those located near the coast will be affected by harsher drought events than those located further inland. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that climate change and its associated increase in drought pose a significant threat to the saguaro cactus populations in the Sonoran Desert. Our findings indicate that the recruitment of saguaros, vital for establishing new individuals, is particularly vulnerable to intensifying drought conditions. Importantly, regional climate trends will have different impacts on saguaro populations across their distribution range.