Quality assessment of oral antimalarial and antiretroviral medicines used by public health systems in Sahel countries.

Malaria and Human Immunodeficiency Virus infections are among the top 10 causes of death in low income countries. Furthermore, many medicines used in these treatment areas are substandard, which contributes to the high death rate. Using a monitoring system to identify substandard and falsified medicines, the study aims to evaluate the quality of antimalarial and antiretroviral medicines in Sahel countries, assessing site conditions, compliance of medicines with pharmacopoeia tests, formulation equivalence with a reference medicine, and the influence of climate on quality attributes. Ultra Performance Liquid Chromatography methods for eight active pharmaceutical ingredients were validated following the International Conference for Harmonization guideline for its detection and quantification. Quality control consists of visual inspections to detect any misinformation or imperfections and pharmacopeial testing to determine the quality of pharmaceutical products. Medicines which complied with uniformity dosage units and dissolution tests were stored under accelerated conditions for 6 months. Artemether/Lumefantrine and Lopinavir/Ritonavir formulations failed uniformity dosage units and disintegration tests respectively, detecting a total of 28.6% substandard medicines. After 6 months stored under accelerated conditions (40 °C // 75% relative humidity) simulating climatic conditions in Sahel countries, some medicines failed pharmacopeia tests. It demonstrated the influence of these two factors in their quality attributes. This study emphasizes the need of certified quality control laboratories as well as the need for regulatory systems to maintain standards in pharmaceutical manufacturing and distribution in these countries, especially when medicines are transported to rural areas where these climatic conditions are harsher.

Substandard and falsified antimicrobials in selected east African countries: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Globally, millions of people have been affected by fraudulent pharmaceutical products, particularly those in developing countries. Although the problem of falsified and substandard drugs is acknowledged, the extent of the issue is ever-changing, has a dynamic nature, and should be quantified and captured in a recent snapshot. OBJECTIVE: This systematic review seeks to examine the data that can quantify and provide a current snapshot of the prevalence of SF antimicrobials in selected east Africa countries. METHODS: Scientific studies on antimicrobial quality were searched in PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Google Scholar from 2017 to February 2023. The search strategy focused on scientific articles published in peer-reviewed scientific journals written in English and the studies exclusively done in any of the selected countries of east Africa. The articles were carefully reviewed by two individuals for inclusion independently, first by title followed by abstract and the full-text retrieval. To minimize bias associated with the methodology used for data collection, the quality of the studies was assessed for quality according to the Medicine Quality Assessment Reporting Guidelines (MEDQUARG). The reporting of this systematic review was done following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA). RESULTS: Fifteen studies that estimated the prevalence of poor-quality antimicrobial medicines in selected four east African countries were included. The overall percentage of samples of antimicrobials that failed at least one quality test was 22.6% (151/669) with each class's prevalence of 17% in antibiotics (73/432), 24% in antimalarial (41/171), and 56% in anthelmintics (37/66). Quality control parameters of API content were the most commonly examined in the included studies, accounting for 14/15 (93%) studies. Fifty (33.1%) of the failing samples failed assay API- content determination, while 26.5% (n = 40) failed the visual inspection and packaging analysis; 19.2% (29) failed dissolution; 14% (n = 21) flawed hardness or friability; 4%(n = 6) failed uniformity, as well as 3.2% (n = 5) failed disintegration test of the quality control parameter. CONCLUSION: It was found that this review was general in these selected east African countries and was a catalyst for combating the menace of poor-quality medications that affect millions of lives.

Simultaneous estimation of ZY-19489 and its active metabolite ZY-20486 in human plasma using LC-MS/MS, a novel antimalarial compound.

Aim: ZY-19489 is a new antimalarial drug candidate and selective LC-MS/MS method was established for estimation of ZY-19489 and its metabolite in human plasma. Materials & methods: LLE was employed for extraction, mass spectrometric quantification performed using positive ionization mode and DCP-IMP was used as an internal standard. The chromatographic separation was achieved using mobile phase 5 mM ammonium formate in water and 0.1% v/v ammonia solution in methanol:acetonitrile (90:10% v/v) and column Agilent Zorbex Extended C18, 3.5 µm, 100 × 4.6 mm with a 6-min run time. Results: The calibration curve of ZY-19489 was linear over range 1-500 ng/ml and 2-200 ng/ml for metabolite. Assay was reproducible, selective and devoid of matrix effect. Conclusion: The validated assay was implemented for clinical sample analysis derived from healthy human subjects and parasitemia-induced subjects.

In vivo efficacy and safety of artemether-lumefantrine and amodiaquine-artesunate for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Mozambique, 2018.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has been the recommended first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria in Mozambique since 2006, with artemether-lumefantrine (AL) and amodiaquine-artesunate (AS-AQ) as the first choice. To assess efficacy of currently used ACT, an in vivo therapeutic efficacy study was conducted. METHODS: The study was conducted in four sentinel sites: Montepuez, Moatize, Mopeia and Massinga. Patients between 6 and 59 months old with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria (2000-200,000 parasites/µl) were enrolled between February and September of 2018, assigned to either an AL or AS-AQ treatment arm, and monitored for 28 days. A Bayesian algorithm was applied to differentiate recrudescence from new infection using genotyping data of seven neutral microsatellites. Uncorrected and PCR-corrected efficacy results at day 28 were calculated. RESULTS: Totals of 368 and 273 patients were enrolled in the AL and AS-AQ arms, respectively. Of these, 9.5% (35/368) and 5.1% (14/273) were lost to follow-up in the AL and AS-AQ arms, respectively. There were 48 and 3 recurrent malaria infections (late clinical and late parasitological failures) in the AL and AS-AQ arms, respectively. The day 28 uncorrected efficacy was 85.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 81.3-89.2%) for AL and 98.8% (95% CI 96.7-99.8%) for AS-AQ, whereas day 28 PCR-corrected efficacy was 97.9% (95% CI 95.6-99.2%) for AL and 99.6% (95% CI 97.9-100%) for AS-AQ. Molecular testing confirmed that 87.4% (42/48) and 33.3% (1/3) of participants with a recurrent malaria infection in the AL and AS-AQ arms were new infections; an expected finding in a high malaria transmission area. Adverse events were documented in less than 2% of participants for both drugs. CONCLUSION: Both AL and AS-AQ have therapeutic efficacies well above the 90% WHO recommended threshold and remain well-tolerated in Mozambique. Routine monitoring of therapeutic efficacy should continue to ensure the treatments remain efficacious. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT04370977.

Safety monitoring experience of single-low dose primaquine co-administered with artemether-lumefantrine among providers and patients in routine healthcare practice: a qualitative study in Eastern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Primaquine is a gametocytocidal drug recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) in a single-low dose combined with artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for the treatment and prevention of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission. Safety monitoring concerns and the lack of a universal validated and approved primaquine pharmacovigilance tool is a challenge for a national rollout in many countries. This study aimed to explore the acceptance, reliability and perceived effectiveness of the primaquine roll out monitoring pharmacovigilance tool (PROMPT). METHODS: This study was conducted in three dispensaries in the Coastal region of Eastern Tanzania. The study held six in-depth interviews with healthcare providers and six participatory focus group discussions with malaria patients (3) and parents/guardians of sick children (3). Participants were purposively sampled. Thematic analysis was conducted with the aid of NVivo qualitative analysis software. RESULTS: The respondents' general acceptance and perceived effectiveness of the single-low dose primaquine and PROMPT was good. Screening procedure for treatment eligibility and explaining to patients about the possible adverse events was considered very useful for safety reasons. Crushing and dissolving of primaquine tablet to get the appropriate dose, particularly in children, was reported by all providers to be challenging. Transport costs and poor access to the health facility were the main reasons for a patient failing to return to the clinic for a scheduled follow-up visit. Treatment was perceived to be safe by both providers and patients and reported no case of a severe adverse event. Some providers were concerned with the haemoglobin drop observed on day 7. CONCLUSION: Single-low dose primaquine was perceived to be safe and acceptable among providers and patients. PROMPT demonstrated to be a reliable and user-friendly tool among providers. Further validation of the tool by involving the National Malaria Control Programme is pivotal to addressing key challenges and facilitating primaquine adoption in the national policy.

In vivo efficacy and safety of artemether-lumefantrine and amodiaquine-artesunate for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Mozambique, 2018

Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has been the recommended first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria in Mozambique since 2006, with artemether-lumefantrine (AL) and amodiaquine-artesunate (AS-AQ) as the first choice. To assess efficacy of currently used ACT, an in vivo therapeutic efficacy study was conducted. Methods: The study was conducted in four sentinel sites: Montepuez, Moatize, Mopeia and Massinga. Patients between 6 and 59 months old with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria (2000-200,000 parasites/µl) were enrolled between February and September of 2018, assigned to either an AL or AS-AQ treatment arm, and monitored for 28 days. A Bayesian algorithm was applied to differentiate recrudescence from new infection using genotyping data of seven neutral microsatellites. Uncorrected and PCR-corrected efficacy results at day 28 were calculated. Results: Totals of 368 and 273 patients were enrolled in the AL and AS-AQ arms, respectively. Of these, 9.5% (35/368) and 5.1% (14/273) were lost to follow-up in the AL and AS-AQ arms, respectively. There were 48 and 3 recurrent malaria infections (late clinical and late parasitological failures) in the AL and AS-AQ arms, respectively. The day 28 uncorrected efficacy was 85.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 81.3-89.2%) for AL and 98.8% (95% CI 96.7-99.8%) for AS-AQ, whereas day 28 PCR-corrected efficacy was 97.9% (95% CI 95.6-99.2%) for AL and 99.6% (95% CI 97.9-100%) for AS-AQ. Molecular testing confirmed that 87.4% (42/48) and 33.3% (1/3) of participants with a recurrent malaria infection in the AL and AS-AQ arms were new infections; an expected finding in a high malaria transmission area. Adverse events were documented in less than 2% of participants for both drugs. Conclusion: Both AL and AS-AQ have therapeutic efficacies well above the 90% WHO recommended threshold and remain well-tolerated in Mozambique. Routine monitoring of therapeutic efficacy should continue to ensure the treatments remain efficacious. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov

Isolation and identification of carotenoid-producing yeast and evaluation of antimalarial activity of the extracted carotenoid(s) against P. falciparum.

Plasmodial resistance to a variety of plant-based antimalarial drugs has led toward the discovery of more effective antimalarial compounds having chemical or biological origin. Since natural compounds are considered as safer drugs, in this study, yeast strains were identified and compared for the production of carotenoids that are well-known antioxidants and this metabolite was tested for its antiparasitic activity. Plasmodium falciparum 3D7 strain was selected as the target parasite for evaluation of antimalarial activity of yeast carotenoids using in vitro studies. Data were analyzed by FACS (fluorescence-activated cell sorter) and counted via gold standard Giemsa-stained smears. The extracted yeast carotenoids showed a profound inhibitory effect at a concentration of 10-3 µg/µl and 10-4 µg/µl when compared to ß- carotene as control. SYBR Green1 fluorescent dye was used to confirm the decrease in parasitaemia at given range of concentration. Egress assay results suggested that treated parasite remained stalled at schizont stage with constricted morphology and were darkly stained. Non-toxicity of carotenoids on erythrocytes and on human liver hepatocellular carcinoma cells (HepG2 cells) was shown at a given concentration. This report provides strong evidence for antimalarial effects of extracted yeast carotenoids, which can be produced via a sustainable and cost-effective strategy and may be scaled up for industrial application.

In vivo Antimalarial, Antioxidant Activities and Safety of Carapa procera DC. (Meliaceae).

Background and Objectives: Carapa procera is a popular herb used by traditional healers in the western part of Burkina Faso. In a previous study, Carapa procera showed interesting antiplasmodial activity in vitro against P. falciparum. The present study aimed to evaluate its in vivo potential against malaria parasites and its safety in mice. Materials and Methods: The antimalarial activity of the ethanolic extract was evaluated on Plasmodium berghei Anka in the Naval Medical Research Institute (NMRI) mice using the Peters 4-day suppressive test. The acute toxicity was performed according to the Lorke method and sub-acute toxicity following the Seewaboon method. The polyphenols and flavonoids were determined by colorimetric methods. The antioxidant activity of the extract was evaluated in vitro by Ferric Reducing Antioxidant Power (FRAPP) and 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) methods. Results: Carapa procera had a good antiplasmodial activity at a dose of 250 mg kg¹ b.wt. Phytochemical screening revealed the presence of polyphenols and flavonoids in the extracts. Soxhlet ethanolic extracts had the highest content in polyphenols and flavonoids. The antioxidant activity of Soxhlet ethanolic extracts was better than macerated extract by DPPH method and FRAP method. Besides, no mortality in mice was recorded with the soxhlet ethanolic extract. No toxic signs were observed in animals in the sub-acute toxicity test. Conclusion: Carapa procera soxhlet ethanolic stem bark extract had a good in vivo antimalarial activity against Plasmodium berghei infection in mice and the extract was relatively safe when administered orally in mice.

Impact of substandard and falsified antimalarials in Zambia: application of the SAFARI model.

BACKGROUND: Many countries are striving to become malaria-free, but global reduction in case estimates has stagnated in recent years. Substandard and falsified medicines may contribute to this lack of progress. Zambia aims to eliminate their annual burden of 1.2 million pediatric malaria cases and 2500 child deaths due to malaria. We examined the health and economic impact of poor-quality antimalarials in Zambia. METHODS: An agent-based model, Substandard and Falsified Antimalarial Research Impact (SAFARI), was modified and applied to Zambia. The model was developed to simulate population characteristics, malaria incidence, patient care-seeking, disease progression, treatment outcomes, and associated costs of malaria for children under age five. Zambia-specific demographic, epidemiological, and cost inputs were extracted from the literature. Simulations were run to estimate the health and economic impact of poor-quality antimalarials, the effect of potential artemisinin resistance, and six additional malaria focused policy interventions. RESULTS: We simulated annual malaria cases among Zambian children under five. At baseline, we found 2610 deaths resulting in $141.5 million in annual economic burden of malaria. We estimated that elimination of substandard and falsified antimalarials would result in an 8.1% (n = 213) reduction in under-five deaths, prevent 937 hospitalizations, and realize $8.5 million in economic savings, annually. Potential artemisinin resistance could further increase deaths by 6.3% (n = 166) and cost an additional $9.7 million every year. CONCLUSIONS: Eliminating substandard and falsified antimalarials is an important step towards a malaria-free Zambia. Beyond the dissemination of insecticide-treated bed nets, indoor residual spraying, and other malaria control measures, attention must also be paid to assure the quality of antimalarial treatments.

Importance of medicine quality in achieving universal health coverage.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the importance of ensuring medicine quality in order to achieve universal health coverage (UHC). METHODS: We developed a systems map connecting medicines quality assurance systems with UHC goals to illustrate the ensuing impact of quality-assured medicines in the implementation of UHC. The association between UHC and medicine quality was further examined in the context of essential medicines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) by analyzing data on reported prevalence of substandard and falsified essential medicines and established indicators for UHC. Finally, we examined the health and economic savings of improving antimalarial quality in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa: the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Nigeria, Uganda, and Zambia. FINDINGS: A systems perspective demonstrates how quality assurance of medicines supports dimensions of UHC. Across 63 LMICs, the reported prevalence of substandard and falsified essential medicines was found to be negatively associated with both an indicator for coverage of essential services (p = 0.05) and with an indicator for government effectiveness (p = 0.04). We estimated that investing in improving the quality of antimalarials by 10% would result in annual savings of $8.3 million in Zambia, $14 million in Uganda, $79 million in two DRC regions, and $598 million in Nigeria, and was more impactful compared to other potential investments we examined. Costs of substandard and falsified antimalarials per malaria case ranged from $7 to $86, while costs per death due to poor-quality antimalarials ranged from $14,000 to $72,000. CONCLUSION: Medicines quality assurance systems play a critical role in reaching UHC goals. By ensuring the quality of essential medicines, they help deliver effective treatments that lead to less illness and result in health care savings that can be reinvested towards UHC.

Evaluating interventions to improve test, treat, and track (T3) malaria strategy among over-the-counter medicine sellers (OTCMS) in some rural communities of Fanteakwa North district, Ghana: study protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization initiated test, treat, and track (T3) malaria strategy to support malaria-endemic countries in their efforts to achieve universal coverage with diagnostic testing, antimalarial treatment, and strengthening surveillance systems. Unfortunately, T3 is not adopted by over-the-counter medicine sellers (OTCMS) where many patients with malaria-like symptoms first seek treatment. Sub-Saharan African countries are considering introducing and scaling up RDTs in these outlets to reduce malaria burden. In this context, this study is aimed at improving implementation of the T3 among OTCMS using a number of intervention tools that could be scaled-up easily at the national level. METHODS/DESIGN: The interventions will be evaluated using a two-arm, cluster randomized trial across 8 rural communities (4 clusters per arm), in two adjacent districts (Fanteakwa North and Fanteakwa South districts) of Ghana. A total of 8 OTCMS in the intervention arm and 5 OTCMS in the control arm in the selected communities will participate in the study. In the intervention arm only, subsidized malaria rapid diagnostic test (mRDT) kits will be introduced after the OTCMS have been trained on how to use the kit appropriately. Supervision, technical assistance, feedbacks, and collection of data will be provided on a regular basis at the participating medicine stores. The primary outcome is the proportion of children under 10 years with fever or suspected to have malaria visiting OTCMS and tested (using mRDT) before treatment. Secondary outcomes will include adherence to national malaria treatment guidelines and recommended mRDT retail price. Outcomes will be measured using mainly a household survey supplemented by mystery client survey and a surveillance register on malaria tests conducted by the OTCMS during patient consultations. Data collected will be double entered and verified using Microsoft Access 2010 (Microsoft Inc., Redmond, Washington) and analyzed using STATA version 11.0. DISCUSSION: The trial will provide evidence on the combined effectiveness of provider and community interventions in improving adherence to the T3 initiative among OTCMS in rural Ghana. ETHICAL CLEARANCE: NMIMR-IRB CPN 086/18-19 TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registry ISRCTN77836926 . Registered on 4 November 2019.

Post-Marketing Surveillance of Quality of Artemether Injection Marketed in Southwest Nigeria.

Access to good-quality medicines remains a contentious issue in developing countries. This development is worrisome, particularly in a setting with a high incidence of malaria. Monitoring of antimalarial drugs in the commercial domain becomes necessary; thus, we evaluated the quality of artemether injection marketed in Southwest Nigeria. A cross-sectional survey was conducted to obtain 22 different brands of artemether injections within Southwest Nigeria. The samples were examined for their sources, lot numbers, containers for injection, oil base used for preparation, and dates of expiration. Further analysis involved visual inspection, assessment of extractable volume, identity tests, and an assay of active pharmaceutical ingredient. The pharmaceutical quality of each sample was determined according to the criteria set in the International Pharmacopoeia 2019. None of the products had any particulate matter, but there were certain irregularities in their presentation. Eighteen of the 22 products (81.7%) were packaged in plain instead of amber-colored ampoules, and 77.3% (17/22) did not indicate the oil base used as the vehicle on the label as against the pharmacopoeial standard. Sixteen products (72.7%) passed the extractable volume test, although the remaining 22.3% did not conform to the extractable volume per unit dose. Artemether was present in all the samples, although only 40.9% (9/22) met the recommended percentage content of 90-110% of artemether. The study revealed the presence of a high percentage of substandard artemether injection products marketed in Nigeria. Further surveillance is warranted to confirm the quality of artemether injection circulated in other regions within Nigeria.

An in vitro toolbox to accelerate anti-malarial drug discovery and development.

BACKGROUND: Modelling and simulation are being increasingly utilized to support the discovery and development of new anti-malarial drugs. These approaches require reliable in vitro data for physicochemical properties, permeability, binding, intrinsic clearance and cytochrome P450 inhibition. This work was conducted to generate an in vitro data toolbox using standardized methods for a set of 45 anti-malarial drugs and to assess changes in physicochemical properties in relation to changing target product and candidate profiles. METHODS: Ionization constants were determined by potentiometric titration and partition coefficients were measured using a shake-flask method. Solubility was assessed in biorelevant media and permeability coefficients and efflux ratios were determined using Caco-2 cell monolayers. Binding to plasma and media proteins was measured using either ultracentrifugation or rapid equilibrium dialysis. Metabolic stability and cytochrome P450 inhibition were assessed using human liver microsomes. Sample analysis was conducted by LC-MS/MS. RESULTS: Both solubility and fraction unbound decreased, and permeability and unbound intrinsic clearance increased, with increasing Log D7.4. In general, development compounds were somewhat more lipophilic than legacy drugs. For many compounds, permeability and protein binding were challenging to assess and both required the use of experimental conditions that minimized the impact of non-specific binding. Intrinsic clearance in human liver microsomes was varied across the data set and several compounds exhibited no measurable substrate loss under the conditions used. Inhibition of cytochrome P450 enzymes was minimal for most compounds. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first data set to describe in vitro properties for 45 legacy and development anti-malarial drugs. The studies identified several practical methodological issues common to many of the more lipophilic compounds and highlighted areas which require more work to customize experimental conditions for compounds being designed to meet the new target product profiles. The dataset will be a valuable tool for malaria researchers aiming to develop PBPK models for the prediction of human PK properties and/or drug-drug interactions. Furthermore, generation of this comprehensive data set within a single laboratory allows direct comparison of properties across a large dataset and evaluation of changing property trends that have occurred over time with changing target product and candidate profiles.

Quality of antimalarials in Kinshasa peri-urban areas with regard to local pharmaceutical legislation and regulation.

BACKGROUND: In the context of old pharmaceutical legislation and regulations not adapted to current realities, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the existing pharmaceutical system in peri-urban areas of Kinshasa. METHODS: A prospective study was carried out during the period 2016-2018. The most used antimalarial medicines were identified through household and pharmaceutical establishment surveys. The samples of the obtained medicines were assayed with generic separation methods using the high-performance liquid chromatography technique coupled to a diode array detector. The registration status was checked for 126 antimalarial brand names. A characterization was carried out in 196 pharmaceutical establishments on the basis of standards set out by the Ministry of Health. RESULTS: Of the 75 samples assayed, 19% (14/75) were non-compliant. Of the 124 brand names, 46.0% (57/124) were unlicensed and 14.5% (18/124) had an expired licence. Of the 196 pharmaceutical establishments, only 2 (1.0%) had an authorization to practice, none met all the Ministry of Health minimum standards and 24.5% (48/196) met the World Health Organization Guidelines for the Storage of Essential Medicines and Other Health Commodities. CONCLUSIONS: More resources should be mobilized to apply regulator sanctions.

Poor-quality antimalarials further health inequities in Uganda.

Substandard and falsified medications are a major threat to public health, directly increasing the risk of treatment failure, antimicrobial resistance, morbidity, mortality and health expenditures. While antimalarial medicines are one of the most common to be of poor quality in low- and middle-income countries, their distributional impact has not been examined. This study assessed the health equity impact of substandard and falsified antimalarials among children under five in Uganda. Using a probabilistic agent-based model of paediatric malaria infection (Substandard and Falsified Antimalarial Research Impact, SAFARI model), we examine the present day distribution of the burden of poor-quality antimalarials by socio-economic status and urban/rural settings, and simulate supply chain, policy and patient education interventions. Patients incur US$26.1 million (7.8%) of the estimated total annual economic burden of substandard and falsified antimalarials, including $2.3 million (9.1%) in direct costs and $23.8 million (7.7%) in productivity losses due to early death. Poor-quality antimalarials annually cost $2.9 million to the government. The burden of the health and economic impact of malaria and poor-quality antimalarials predominantly rests on the poor (concentration index -0.28) and rural populations (98%). The number of deaths among the poorest wealth quintile due to substandard and falsified antimalarials was 12.7 times that of the wealthiest quintile, and the poor paid 12.1 times as much per person in out-of-pocket payments. Rural populations experienced 97.9% of the deaths due to poor-quality antimalarials, and paid 10.7 times as much annually in out-of-pocket expenses compared with urban populations. Our simulations demonstrated that interventions to improve medicine quality could have the greatest impact at reducing inequities, and improving adherence to antimalarials could have the largest economic impact. Substandard and falsified antimalarials have a significant health and economic impact, with greater burden of deaths, disability and costs on poor and rural populations, contributing to health inequities in Uganda.

Modeling the Economic Impact of Substandard and Falsified Antimalarials in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Substandard and falsified medicines pose significant risks to global health, including increased deaths, prolonged treatments, and growing drug resistance. Antimalarials are one of the most common medications to be of poor quality in low- and middle-income countries. We assessed the health and economic impact of substandard and falsified antimalarials for children less than 5 years of age in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has one of the world's highest malaria mortality rates. We developed an agent-based model to simulate patient care-seeking behavior and medicine supply chain processes to examine the impact of antimalarial quality in Kinshasa province and Katanga region. We simulated the impact of potential interventions to improve medicinal quality, reduce stockouts, or educate caregivers. We estimated that substandard and falsified antimalarials are responsible for $20.9 million (35% of $59.6 million; 95% CI: $20.7-$21.2 million) in malaria costs in Kinshasa province and $130 million (43% of $301 million; $129-$131 million) in malaria costs in the Katanga region annually. If drug resistance to artemisinin were to develop, total annual costs of malaria could increase by $17.9 million (30%; $17.7-$18.0 million) and $73 million (24%; $72.2-$72.8 million) in Kinshasa and Katanga, respectively. Replacing substandard and falsified antimalarials with good quality medicines had a larger impact than interventions that prevented stockouts or educated caregivers. The results highlight the importance of improving access to good quality antimalarials to reduce the burden of malaria and mitigate the development of antimalarial resistance.

Development of an agent-based model to assess the impact of substandard and falsified anti-malarials: Uganda case study.

BACKGROUND: Global efforts to address the burden of malaria have stagnated in recent years with malaria cases beginning to rise. Substandard and falsified anti-malarial treatments contribute to this stagnation. Poor quality anti-malarials directly affect health outcomes by increasing malaria morbidity and mortality, as well as threaten the effectiveness of treatment by contributing to artemisinin resistance. Research to assess the scope and impact of poor quality anti-malarials is essential to raise awareness and allocate resources to improve the quality of treatment. A probabilistic agent-based model was developed to provide country-specific estimates of the health and economic impact of poor quality anti-malarials on paediatric malaria. This paper presents the methodology and case study of the Substandard and Falsified Antimalarial Research Impact (SAFARI) model developed and applied to Uganda. RESULTS: The total annual economic impact of malaria in Ugandan children under age five was estimated at US$614 million. Among children who sought medical care, the total economic impact was estimated at $403 million, including $57.7 million in direct costs. Substandard and falsified anti-malarials were a significant contributor to this annual burden, accounting for $31 million (8% of care-seeking children) in total economic impact involving $5.2 million in direct costs. Further, 9% of malaria deaths relating to cases seeking treatment were attributable to poor quality anti-malarials. In the event of widespread artemisinin resistance in Uganda, we simulated a 12% yearly increase in costs associated with paediatric malaria cases that sought care, inflicting $48.5 million in additional economic impact annually. CONCLUSIONS: Improving the quality of treatment is essential to combat the burden of malaria and prevent the development of drug resistance. The SAFARI model provides country-specific estimates of the health and economic impact of substandard and falsified anti-malarials to inform governments, policy makers, donors and the malaria community about the threat posed by poor quality medicines. The model findings are useful to illustrate the significance of the issue and inform policy and interventions to improve medicinal quality.