Market liquidity and volatility: Does economic policy uncertainty matter? Evidence from Asian emerging economies.

This research investigates the complex interaction between liquidity and volatility while considering Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) as a moderating factor. Using a comprehensive dataset that incorporates various liquidity measures such as market resilience, depth, and breadth, the study examines how changes in liquidity impact volatility in four Asian incipient economies: China, Pakistan, India, and South Korea. By utilizing sophisticated econometric techniques, particularly the System Generalized Method of Moment (GMM), the findings demonstrate a statistically significant inverse relationship between liquidity and volatility. These findings imply that, within the Asian context, lower levels of volatility are correlated with higher market liquidity. By incorporating EPU into the model, the research acknowledges the significant role of economic factors in shaping market dynamics. Stakeholders, decision-makers, and investors can gain valuable insights from this analysis of variables influencing market stability in Asian emerging economies. The study's outcomes can guide policymakers in formulating strategies that promote market stability and improve market microstructure.

Incorporating transportation costs into the single and multiple items newsvendor problems.

The efficiency and responsiveness of supply chains are vitally dependent on inventory replenishment and transportation decisions. In this paper, we study a supply chain consisting of a single retailer ordering seasonal products within the newsvendor framework. The primary objective of the paper is to investigate the retailer's decision-making process, aimed at determining the optimal replenishment quantities and selecting the appropriate mix and size of the truck fleet. Initially, we formulate a mathematical model where the retailer exclusively manages a limited fleet of its own trucks for inbound transportation of a single seasonal product. In this context, we determine a lower breakeven point for the fixed transportation cost than what has been previously proposed in the literature. Subsequently, we examine a commonly encountered transportation scenario where the retailer has the opportunity to expand its fleet size by leasing trucks from the external market. The outcomes of the numerical example indicates that the flexibility resulting from the utilization of different types of trucks can lead to reduced overall costs. We also address the practical transportation problem of efficiently shipping various seasonal products solely with the retailer's own trucks. For this complex problem, we propose an optimal solution procedure based on Lagrangian method. We show that the joint replenishment of multiple products results in cost savings and enhances utilization of the trucks' capacities.

Procurement practices and value for money in State Corporations in Kenya.

Public procurement related expenditure is approximately fifty to seventy percent of the national budget of developing countries and accounts for almost a third of the gross domestic product. Cognizant of the significant funds committed in public procurement, the quest for value for money is critical. This study sought to determine the effect of procurement practices on value for money in State Corporations in Kenya. Specifically, the study investigated the effect of procurement planning, supplier sourcing, supplies management and E-procurement on value for money. Data collected from 87 State Corporations in Kenya was used in this study. The results of the study indicated that procurement planning, supplier sourcing, supplies management and e-procurement positively and significantly affect the value for money in state corporations in Kenya. The study concluded that proper procurement practices positively and significantly affect the value for money in state corporations in Kenya. The findings of this study contributes to literature by providing an empirical examination on the impact of procurement practices and value for money from a developing country perspective.

Can digital economy foster synergistic increases in green innovation and corporate value? Evidence from China.

The rapid evolution of the digital economy has significantly accelerated progress towards achieving green and sustainable processes, particularly in the field of green production. While existing research has delved into the effects of the digital economy on Green Innovation (GI) and the consequences of digital transformation on Corporate Value (CV), there remains a notable gap in the literature regarding the potential for synergistic enhancements in firms' GI&CV through the ongoing digital revolution. This study utilizes an evolutionary game model and employs system dynamics methods to simulate the dynamic evolution trajectory of the influence of the digital economy on the synergy between GI&CV. Subsequently, it empirically assesses the interconnected synergies between GI&CV using a dataset comprising information from Chinese listed firms spanning from 2011 to 2020, examining the impact of the digital economy on these synergies. Moreover, the study delves into the analysis of the transmission mechanism and conducts an extended investigation to further explore this phenomenon. The findings of this paper including: (1) The digital economy acts as a driving force behind the synergistic enhancement of firm GI&CV. Moreover, this effect is further augmented by governmental environmental regulation and green subsidy policies. (2) Drawing upon the information asymmetry theory and the resource-based theory, the regional marketization level and firms' digital transformation play intermediary roles. (3) The heterogeneity test indicate that firms situated in eastern regions and those classified as non-heavily polluted benefitted to a greater extent. This study sheds light on the incentive implications of digital economy for the synergistic upgrading of GI&CV, thereby extending the breadth of study on the consequences of digital economy. Moreover, it offers actionable suggestions for enterprises to leverage digital economy development towards achieving a synergistic improvement of GI&CV.

Dynamic interactions of carbon trading, green certificate trading, and electricity markets: Insights from system dynamics modeling.

In the context of the evolving landscape of reduction in carbon emissions and integration of renewable energy, this study uses system dynamics (SD) modeling to explore the interconnected dynamics of carbon trading (CT), tradable green certificate (TGC) trading, and electricity markets. Using differential equations with time delays, the study provides a comprehensive analysis of structural relationships and feedback mechanisms within and between these markets. Key findings reveal the intricate interplay between carbon prices, green certificate prices, and electricity prices under various coupling mechanisms. For example, under the three-market coupling mechanism, carbon trading prices stabilize around 150 Yuan/ton, while green certificate prices reach a peak of 0.45 Yuan/KWH, impacting electricity prices, which fluctuate between 0.33 and 1.09 Yuan / KWH during the simulation period. These quantitative results shed light on nuanced fluctuations in market prices and the dynamics of anticipated purchases and sales volumes within each market. The insights gleaned from this study offer valuable implications for policy makers and market stakeholders in navigating the complexities of carbon emission reduction strategies, the integration of renewable energy and market equilibrium. By understanding the dynamics of multi-market coupling, stakeholders can better formulate policies and strategies to achieve sustainable energy transitions and mitigate impacts of climate change.

Economic barriers to prevent the smuggling of health goods in Iran.

INTRODUCTION: In recent years, smuggling of health goods has apparently increased in the country. Despite the preventive and regulatory measures taken to combat this problem, the outcomes seem to be undesirable. This study thus aims to identify and elucidate the role of economic barriers in the prevention of smuggling health goods in Iran. METHOD: We conducted semistructured interviews with 29 purposefully identified key informants in the detection, prevention and control of health goods smuggling in different organisations, between May 2021-January 2022. An inductive data-driven thematic analysis approach was further adopted to identify patterns of meaning, using MAXQDA 2020 software to facilitate data management. RESULTS: We identified four main themes representing the economic barriers to prevent the smuggling of health goods in Iran; Monetary and financial policy, which includes subthemes of financial rules and procedures, market regulation, economic incentives and imbalanced development; Behavioural patterns, consisting of consumer behaviour, the opportunism of smugglers, the behaviour of statesmen and politicians; Economic diplomacy, categorised into international relations and interactions, relations and interactions in the national arena, interaction with non-governmental organisations and Health economic monitoring and evaluation including transparency of statistics and economic information and supervision. CONCLUSION: Smuggling health goods has become a concerning challenge in the health sector. It is, therefore, imperative to develop and implement appropriate policies and operations towards security and international cooperation, lobbying and coalition-building. Demonopolisation, creating competitive and dynamic markets, removal of rent-seeking layers at all levels, and the use of commercial diplomacy to reduce the burden of smuggling in the health sector of Iran, and perhaps beyond might be of sizeable use to combat such challenge.

Medicines prices in International (Geary-Khamis) Dollar. The comparison between regulated and deregulated markets.

BACKGROUND: Affordability of medicines is key for effective healthcare. Thus, we compared medicine prices using International Dollar (I$), which allows confronting the values of different currencies. Besides, we intended to verify if pharmaceutical market deregulation leads to lower medicines prices. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted the study between December 2019 and September 2022 collecting data from 21 countries. From the preliminary sampling of 30 medicines, we selected 10 brand names (5 Rx and 5 OTC brands) for the analysis. In each country, we collected price information from 3 pharmacies and then converted them to the I$ using the rates published by the International Monetary Fund. RESULTS: There were differences between regulated and deregulated markets in prices presented in I$. For instance, Aspirin C® (10 soluble pills) was on average I$ 5.41 in Finland (regulated market) and I$ 13.25 in Brazil. The most expensive Xarelto® 20 x 28 pills (I$ 538.40) was in Romania, which in the case of other medicines, was in the group of cheaper countries. There was no statistical significance in price comparison between regulated and deregulated markets. In some cases, however, regulated markets offered lower prices of the same medicine than deregulated markets. CONCLUSION: The analysis revealed differences in I$ prices between countries. Pharmaceutical market regulation does not mean higher prices of medicines. There is a need for affordable medicines. Hence, decision-makers should work on the medicines prices and adjust them to the local economies. I$ could be important in creating pharmaceuticals prices, and the conducted study should encourage other researchers to present their results using this currency.

Impact of RMB internationalization on China's competitiveness in financial services trade based on the VAR model: Evidence from China-US.

An increase in a currency internationalization levels can positively impact its credibility in international economic activities, and expand the effective demand and optimize the supply structure for the country's financial service trade. In this way, a state can improve its financial service trade competitiveness in the international market. This study builds a vector autoregressive model based on time-series data of China-US financial services trade from 2010 to 2021, analyzes the impact of different quantitative indicators of RMB internationalization on this trade from the impulse response results, and validates the conclusions using various inspection methods. The results show that the increase in RMB internationalization helps to narrow the China-US financial services trade balance, but with a significant lag. And this effect is heterogeneous in different dimensions, demonstrated by the fact that the development of overseas RMB securities business is more important for the level of RMB internationalization to narrow the China-US financial services trade balance. Finally, among the specific measures to improve its financial services trade, China should focus on developing the international competitiveness of the traditional RMB deposit and loan financial sector, while the competition in the overseas market for high value-added financial businesses must also not be neglected. Furthermore, China needs to implement more targeted RMB internationalization development policies at different levels in the future to provide high-quality financial services to the rest of the world and aid in the economic recovery of the world in the "post-pandemic" era.

Allocation of the household food budget among shopping basket items: How is it influenced by promotions?

Retailers have been using promotion as a differentiation strategy that influences consumers' expenditures and their shopping basket budgetary allocation. This study assessed the effect of retail promotions on total shopping basket expenditure and determined whether promotions provoke a reallocation of the shopping budget. The analysis was performed on a chain of supermarkets in Catalonia, Spain using a consumer scanner data set from Kantar Worldpanel for 2017. The methodological approach had two steps: prediction of the effect of promotion on household expenditures using an expenditure regression model and estimation of the promotion own- and cross-effect using the censored Exact Affine Stone Index. Promotion had a positive own-effect and mostly a negative asymmetric cross-effect, implying a small but significant budget reallocation.

Factor-GAN: Enhancing stock price prediction and factor investment with Generative Adversarial Networks.

Deep learning, a pivotal branch of artificial intelligence, has increasingly influenced the financial domain with its advanced data processing capabilities. This paper introduces Factor-GAN, an innovative framework that utilizes Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) technology for factor investing. Leveraging a comprehensive factor database comprising 70 firm characteristics, Factor-GAN integrates deep learning techniques with the multi-factor pricing model, thereby elevating the precision and stability of investment strategies. To explain the economic mechanisms underlying deep learning, we conduct a subsample analysis of the Chinese stock market. The findings reveal that the deep learning-based pricing model significantly enhances return prediction accuracy and factor investment performance in comparison to linear models. Particularly noteworthy is the superior performance of the long-short portfolio under Factor-GAN, demonstrating an annualized return of 23.52% with a Sharpe ratio of 1.29. During the transition from state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to non-SOEs, our study discerns shifts in factor importance, with liquidity and volatility gaining significance while fundamental indicators diminish. Additionally, A-share listed companies display a heightened emphasis on momentum and growth indicators relative to their dual-listed counterparts. This research holds profound implications for the expansion of explainable artificial intelligence research and the exploration of financial technology applications.

Equity implications of tobacco taxation: results from WHO FCTC investment cases.

BACKGROUND: Across time, geographies and country income levels, smoking prevalence is highest among people with lower incomes. Smoking causes further impoverishment of those on the lower end of the income spectrum through expenditure on tobacco and greater risk of ill health. METHODS: This paper summarises the results of investment case equity analyses for 19 countries, presenting the effects of increased taxation on smoking prevalence, health and expenditures. We disaggregate the number of people who smoke, smoking-attributable mortality and cigarette expenditures using smoking prevalence data by income quintile. A uniform 30% increase in price was applied across countries. We estimated the effects of the price increase on smoking prevalence, mortality and cigarette expenditures. RESULTS: In all but one country (Bhutan), a one-time 30% increase in price would reduce smoking prevalence by the largest percent among the poorest 20% of the population. All income groups in all countries would spend more on cigarettes with a 30% increase in price. However, the poorest 20% would pay an average of 12% of the additional money spent. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that health benefits from increases in price through taxation are pro-poor. Even in countries where smoking prevalence is higher among wealthier groups, increasing prices can still be pro-poor due to variable responsiveness to higher prices. The costs associated with higher smoking prevalence among the poor, together with often limited access to healthcare services and displaced spending on basic needs, result in health inequality and perpetuate the cycle of poverty.

Wealthy individual investors and stock markets' tail risk.

This paper employs a unique data set to analyze the trading behavior of wealthy individual investors across Mainland China and their impact on Chinese stock markets' tail risk. Results show that the wealthy individual investors' trading behavior can explain Chinese stock markets' tail risk, and the daily investment portfolios based on the network density of wealthy individual investors have significant excess returns. This paper also investigates the determinants of wealthy individual investors' trading behavior with the social network method and the spatial econometric model, and reveals that wealthy individuals benefit from the spillover effect of their trading behavior through the investor networks. The results of this paper not only reveal micro evidence for the formation mechanism of asset prices, but also provide insight into the behavior of wealthy individual investors.

Impacts of financial development and green trade on the shadow economy: An insight of eagle countries using Bayesian approaches.

The existence of a shadow economy is recognized as an impediment to sustainable development. By applying the Bayesian approaches, the current article investigates the linkage between financial development, green trade, and the scope of the shadow economy, aiming to contribute to a comprehensive understanding of how these factors address the challenge posed by the shadow economy in Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies (EAGLE) from 2003 to 2016. The results demonstrate that (i) The progress of the financial sector is expected to diminish the scale of the shadow economy. Specifically, the expansion of financial institutions and markets has a strong and negative influence on the shadow economy. (ii) Increased involvement in green trade is likely to result in a decreased shadow economy. Empirical findings provide evidence for effective policymaking in simultaneously promoting sustainable trade practices, strengthening financial systems, and curtailing informal economic activities for inclusive economic development.

Piercing the corporate veil system and creditors protection: Based on the investigation of debt paying ability--Empirical evidence from the 2005 Company Law amendment.

This paper uses the difference-in-differences model to research how the "piercing the corporate veil" system marked by the 2005 Company Law amendment affects the level of corporate creditor protection. The research results show that private enterprises and local state-owned enterprises are sensitive and significant to this legal amendment. In contrast, local state-owned enterprises are more sensitive and have a stronger motivation to protect the interests of creditors. The motivation of companies with weaker profitability for creditor protection lasts not only for the year of law revision but also extends to the year of implementation. With the law's implementation, the growth effect of creditor protection for local state-owned enterprises has become more significant. Further analysis shows that the main findings of this article are more significant in companies with larger debt scales, companies with a higher year-on-year growth rate of operating income, companies with controlling shareholders, and companies with higher stock market capitalization. From an empirical research view, this paper explains the economic effect and mechanism of the whole corporate personality under the complete system and adds economic evidence for how the law acts on the capital market.

Modern models for predicting bankruptcy to detect early signals of business failure: Evidence from Montenegro.

This paper explores predicting early signals of business failure using modern models for bankruptcy prediction. It reviews how continuous operations enhance market value, strengthening competitiveness and reputation among stakeholders. The study involves medium and large companies in the Montenegrin market from 2015 to 2020, comprising 30 bankrupt and 70 financially stable firms. Logistic regression is also employed to create a logit model for early detection of bankruptcy signals in companies. This research establishes the empirical validity of modern models in predicting business failure in the Montenegrin market, particularly through logistic regression. Significant indicators, such as the Degree of Indebtedness (DI) and turnover ratio of business assets (TR), exhibit strong predictive power with a p-value less than 0.001 according to Likelihood ratio tests. The paper underscores the potential benefits of bankruptcy prediction for both internal and external stakeholders, especially investors, in enhancing the competitiveness of Montenegro's large and medium-sized companies. Notably, the research contributes by bridging the gap between theory and practice in Montenegro, as bankruptcy prediction models have not been extensively applied in the market. The authors suggest the possible applicability of the created logit model to neighboring countries with similar economic development levels. In that sense, the concept of predicting bankruptcy is positioned as integral to corporate strategy, impacting the overall reduction of bankruptcies. The paper concludes by highlighting its role as a foundation for future research, addressing the literature gap in the application of bankruptcy prediction models in Montenegro. The created logit model, tailored to the specific needs of Montenegrin companies, is presented as an original contribution, emphasizing its potential to strengthen the competitiveness of companies in the market.

The Paradox of Alcohol and Food Affordability: Minimal Impact of Leading Beer and Cachaça Brands on Brazilian Household Income Amid Hazardous Drinking Patterns.

Alcohol consumption, associated with various cancers, mental disorders, and aggressive behavior, leads to three million deaths globally each year. In Brazil, the alcohol per capita consumption among drinkers aged 15 and over is 41.7 g of pure alcohol/day (~1 L beer/day), which falls into the risky consumption category and exceeds the global average by almost 30%. An effective way to mitigate alcohol-related harm is to increase its retail price. This study assesses the costs of consuming leading brands of beer and sugarcane spirit cachaça (Brazil's most popular alcoholic beverages) against the expenditure on staple foods. Data on food and alcoholic beverage prices were collected in João Pessoa, Brazil, for 2020 and 2021. The cost per gram of pure alcohol and food were considered to establish consumption patterns of 16.8 g/day (moderate), 41.7 g/day, and 83.4 g/day (heavy), distributed in three scenarios involving the beverages alone or combined (64% beer and 36% cachaça), and a balanced 2000 kcal/day staple diet. The study finds that all heavy consumption scenarios cost less or significantly less (cachaça alone) than a 2000 kcal/day staple diet, highlighting an urgent need for fiscal policies, such as a minimum unit pricing for alcohol, to address public health concerns.

Food price trends during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil.

The present study aims to analyze the trends in food price in Brazil with emphasis on the period of the Covid-19 pandemic (from March 2020 to March 2022). Data from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey and the National System of Consumer Price Indexes were used as input to create a novel data set containing monthly prices (R$/Kg) for the foods and beverages most consumed in the country between January 2018 and March 2022. All food items were divided according to the Nova food classification system. We estimated the mean price of each food group for each year of study and the entire period. The monthly price of each group was plotted to analyze changes from January 2018 to March 2022. Fractional polynomial models were used to synthesize price changes up to 2025. Results of the present study showed that in Brazil unprocessed or minimally processed foods and processed culinary ingredients were more affordable than processed and ultra-processed foods. However, trend analyses suggested the reversal of the pricing pattern. The anticipated changes in the prices of minimally processed food relative to ultra-processed food, initially forecasted for Brazil, seem to reflect the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global economy. These results are concerning as the increase in the price of healthy foods aggravates food and nutrition insecurity in Brazil. Additionally, this trend encourages the replacement of traditional meals for the consumption of unhealthy foods, increasing a health risk to the population.

Driving force of value reversal in Chinese overleveraged firms: The mechanism and path of private placement.

To stimulate economic growth, China has launched multiple economic stimulus plans in recent years, intensifying corporate debt financing and subsequently elevating the leverage levels. Addressing and effectively reducing the leverage levels of our country's enterprises has emerged as a pressing issue in the trajectory of our economic development. This paper primarily investigates the drivers, pathways, and mechanisms for reversing the over-leveraged values of enterprises. Key findings include: (1) Excessive indebtedness exerts a negative impact on corporate value, with the suppressing effect intensifying as the degree of over-leverage increases; (2) Over-leveraged enterprises can effectively decrease their debt levels and enhance their value through private placement. Further research suggests that this mechanism operates by amplifying the operational leverage of over-leveraged enterprises post private placement and alleviating financing constraints, thereby elevating corporate value. (3) Compared to non-state-owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises exhibit higher levels of indebtedness. Among over-leveraged firms, enhancements in corporate governance and increased investment efficiency can positively transform corporate value. This study offers valuable insights for the ongoing supply-side structural reforms and governance guidance from the regulatory bodies.