ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Recent outbreaks of Ebola virus disease (EVD) and Marburg virus disease (MVD) in sub-Saharan Africa illustrate the need to better understand animal reservoirs, burden of disease, and human transmission of filoviruses. This protocol outlines a systematic literature review to assess the prevalence of filoviruses that infect humans in sub-Saharan Africa. A secondary aim is to qualitatively describe and evaluate the assays used to assess prevalence. METHODS: The data sources for this systematic review include PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science. Titles, abstracts, and full texts will be reviewed for inclusion by a primary reviewer and then by a team of secondary reviewers, and data will be extracted using a pre-specified and piloted data extraction form. The review will include human cross-sectional studies, cohort studies, and randomized controlled trials conducted in sub-Saharan Africa up until March 13, 2024 that have been published in peer-reviewed scientific journals, with no language restrictions. Prevalence will be stratified by pathogen, population, assay, and sampling methodology and presented in forest plots with estimated prevalence and 95% confidence intervals. If there are enough studies within a stratum, I2 statistics will be calculated (using R statistical software), and data will be pooled if heterogeneity is low. In addition, assays used to detect infection will be evaluated. All studies included in the review will be assessed for quality and risk of bias using the JBI Prevalence Critical Appraisal Tool and for certainty using the GRADE certainty ratings. DISCUSSION: Accurately measuring the rate of exposure to filoviruses infecting humans in sub-Saharan Africa using prevalence provides an essential understanding of natural history, transmission, and the role of subclinical infection. This systematic review will identify research gaps and provide directions for future research seeking to improve our understanding of filovirus infections. Understanding the natural history, transmission, and the role of subclinical infection is critical for predicting the impact of an intervention on disease burden. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: In accordance with the guidelines outlined in the PRISMA-P methodology, this protocol was registered with PROSPERO on April 7, 2023 (ID: CRD42023415358).
Subject(s)
Filoviridae Infections , Systematic Reviews as Topic , Humans , Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology , Prevalence , Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Meta-Analysis as Topic , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Animals , FiloviridaeABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The 2014 outbreak of the Ebola virus disease highlighted the importance of overhauling and transforming healthcare systems in West Africa to improve the ability of individual countries to deal with infectious diseases. As part of this effort, in November 2016 the West African Health Organization (WAHO) began the process of institutionalizing the One Health (OH) approach to health security across the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The lack of clear metrics and evaluation frameworks to measure the progress of OH implementation in West Africa has been reported as a challenge. Therefore, this study sought to assess and explore whether the existing metrics of global health security frameworks can measure the successful implementation of OH activities, evaluate the progress made since 2016, and identify key areas for improvement in the region. METHOD: The study employed predetermined keywords to select indicators from the International Health Regulations (IHR) Monitoring Frameworks, specifically the State Party Self-Assessment Annual Report (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation (JEE), deemed relevant to the OH approach. In addition, the COVID-19 performance index scores (severity and recovery) for June 2022 were extracted from the Global COVID-19 Index (GCI). The GCI Recovery Index evaluated the major recovery parameters reported daily to indicate how a country performed on the path to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic compared to other countries. National documents were also analyzed using categorical variables to assess the performance status of OH platforms across implementing countries. A quantitative analysis of these indicators was conducted and supplemented with qualitative data gathered through interviews with key stakeholders. Between March and April 2022, we conducted 18 key informant interviews with purposively selected representatives from regional governmental agencies and international multilateral agencies, including ECOWAS member states. Interviews were conducted online, transcribed, and analysed following the tenets of thematic analysis. RESULTS: Our quantitative analysis revealed no significant association between the implementation status of OH activities and any of the selected indicators from SPAR and JEE. The descriptive analysis of the JEE scores at the country level revealed that countries with existing OH platforms scored relatively higher on the selected JEE indicators than other countries in the pre-implementation stage. OH implementation status did not significantly affect COVID-19 recovery and severity indices. The qualitative findings with relevant stakeholders revealed noteworthy challenges related to insufficient human capacity, inadequate coordination, and a lack of government funding for the sustainability of OH initiatives. Nonetheless, countries in the ECOWAS region are making progress toward the integration of OH into their health security systems. CONCLUSION: Standardized metrics were used to assess the implementation and efficacy of OH systems in the ECOWAS region. Current indicators for monitoring global health security frameworks lack specificity and fail to comprehensively capture essential OH components, particularly at the sub-national level. To ensure consistency and effectiveness across countries, OH implementation metrics that align with global frameworks such as IHR should be developed.
Subject(s)
Global Health , One Health , Humans , Africa, Western , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , International Health Regulations , Qualitative ResearchABSTRACT
Important policy questions during infections disease outbreaks include: i) How effective are particular interventions?; ii) When can resource-intensive interventions be removed? We used mathematical modelling to address these questions during the 2017 Ebola outbreak in Likati Health Zone, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Eight cases occurred before 15 May 2017, when the Ebola Response Team (ERT; co-ordinated by the World Health Organisation and DRC Ministry of Health) was deployed to reduce transmission. We used a branching process model to estimate that, pre-ERT arrival, the reproduction number was R = 1.49 (95% credible interval ( 0.67, 2.81 ) ). The risk of further cases occurring without the ERT was estimated to be 0.97 (97%). However, no cases materialised, suggesting that the ERT's measures were effective. We also estimated the risk of withdrawing the ERT in real-time. By the actual ERT withdrawal date (2 July 2017), the risk of future cases without the ERT was only 0.01, indicating that the ERT withdrawal decision was safe. We evaluated the sensitivity of our results to the estimated R value and considered different criteria for determining the ERT withdrawal date. This research provides an extensible modelling framework that can be used to guide decisions about when to relax interventions during future outbreaks.
Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/prevention & control , Humans , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Democratic Republic of the Congo/epidemiology , Models, Theoretical , EbolavirusABSTRACT
The Ebola virus disease (EVD) has been endemic since 1976, and the case fatality rate is extremely high. EVD is spread by infected animals, symptomatic individuals, dead bodies, and contaminated environment. In this paper, we formulate an EVD model with four transmission modes and a time delay describing the incubation period. Through dynamical analysis, we verify the importance of blocking the infection source of infected animals. We get the basic reproduction number without considering the infection source of infected animals. And, it is proven that the model has a globally attractive disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is less than unity; the disease eventually becomes endemic when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. Taking the EVD epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014-2016 as an example, we complete the data fitting by combining the effect of the media to obtain the unknown parameters, the basic reproduction number and its time-varying reproduction number. It is shown by parameter sensitivity analysis that the contact rate and the removal rate of infected group have the greatest influence on the prevalence of the disease. And, the disease-controlling thresholds of these two parameters are obtained. In addition, according to the existing vaccination strategy, only the inoculation ratio in high-risk areas is greater than 0.4, the effective reproduction number can be less than unity. And, the earlier the vaccination time, the greater the inoculation ratio, and the faster the disease can be controlled.
Subject(s)
Basic Reproduction Number , Ebolavirus , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola , Mathematical Concepts , Models, Biological , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/transmission , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/prevention & control , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Basic Reproduction Number/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Animals , Sierra Leone/epidemiology , Ebolavirus/pathogenicity , Ebolavirus/physiology , Epidemics/statistics & numerical data , Epidemics/prevention & control , Computer Simulation , Epidemiological Models , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Disease Outbreaks/statistics & numerical dataABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is a rare but contagious disease caused by Ebola Virus (EBOV). The first Ebola outbreaks were reported in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) before subsequent reported cases in Western and East African countries, including Uganda, which borders Tanzania. Proximity to EVD-infected countries raises the prospect of cross-border transmission, raising alarm in Tanzania. This study aimed to explore the cultural practices likely to prevent or escalate EVD transmission in the event of its outbreak in the country. METHODS: This rapid ethnographic assessment employed observation, interviews, and focus group discussions to collect data from people with diverse characteristics in five regions of Tanzania Mainland namely, Kagera, Kigoma, Mwanza and Songwe regions and Zanzibar Island. The qualitative data was then subjected to thematic analysis. FINDINGS: Cultural practices may escalate the transmission of EVD and hinder its prevention and control. These cultural practices include caring sick people at home, confirmation of death, mourning, and body preparation for burial. Communal life, ceremonies, and social gatherings were other aspects observed to have the potential for compounding EVD transmission and hindering its containment in case of an outbreak. CONCLUSION: Cultural practices may escalate EVD transmission as identified in the study settings. As such, Risk Communication and Community Engagement (RCCE) activities should be interventionist in transforming cultural practices that may escalate the spread of EVD as part of preparedness, prevention, and control efforts in the event of an outbreak.
Subject(s)
Anthropology, Cultural , Disease Outbreaks , Focus Groups , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola , Humans , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Tanzania/epidemiology , Male , Female , Adult , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Middle Aged , Young Adult , Qualitative Research , Adolescent , Interviews as TopicABSTRACT
Following the apparent final case in an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak, the decision to declare the outbreak over must balance societal benefits of relaxing interventions against the risk of resurgence. Estimates of the end-of-outbreak probability (the probability that no future cases will occur) provide quantitative evidence that can inform the timing of an end-of-outbreak declaration. An existing modeling approach for estimating the end-of-outbreak probability requires comprehensive contact tracing data describing who infected whom to be available, but such data are often unavailable or incomplete during outbreaks. Here, we develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo-based approach that extends the previous method and does not require contact tracing data. Considering data from two EVD outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we find that data describing who infected whom are not required to resolve uncertainty about when to declare an outbreak over.
Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/prevention & control , Democratic Republic of the Congo/epidemiology , Humans , Ebolavirus , Markov Chains , Monte Carlo MethodABSTRACT
The 2013-2016 Ebola virus disease epidemic and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic galvanized tremendous growth in models for emerging zoonotic and vector-borne viruses. Therefore, we have reviewed the main goals and methods of models to guide scientists and decision-makers. The elements of models for emerging viruses vary across spectrums: from understanding the past to forecasting the future, using data across space and time, and using statistical versus mechanistic methods. Hybrid/ensemble models and artificial intelligence offer new opportunities for modeling. Despite this progress, challenges remain in translating models into actionable decisions, particularly in areas at highest risk for viral disease outbreaks. To address this issue, we must identify gaps in models for specific viruses, strengthen validation, and involve policymakers in model development.
Subject(s)
Zoonoses , Animals , Humans , Zoonoses/virology , Zoonoses/transmission , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Vector Borne Diseases/virology , Vector Borne Diseases/epidemiology , Vector Borne Diseases/transmission , COVID-19/virology , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , Virus Diseases/virology , Virus Diseases/transmission , Virus Diseases/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/virology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/transmission , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Disease Vectors , Disease Outbreaks , Viruses/pathogenicity , Viruses/geneticsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Early detection of outbreaks requires robust surveillance and reporting at both community and health facility levels. Uganda implements Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) for priority diseases and uses the national District Health Information System (DHIS2) for reporting. However, investigations after the first case in the 2022 Uganda Sudan virus outbreak was confirmed on September 20, 2022 revealed many community deaths among persons with Ebola-like symptoms as far back as August. Most had sought care at private facilities. We explored possible gaps in surveillance that may have resulted in late detection of the Sudan virus disease (SVD) outbreak in Uganda. METHODS: Using a standardized tool, we evaluated core surveillance capacities at public and private health facilities at the hospital level and below in three sub-counties reporting the earliest SVD cases in the outbreak. Key informant interviews (KIIs) were conducted with 12 purposively-selected participants from the district local government. Focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with community members from six villages where early probable SVD cases were identified. KIIs and FGDs focused on experiences with SVD and Viral Hemorrhagic Fever (VHF) surveillance in the district. Thematic data analysis was used for qualitative data. RESULTS: Forty-six (85%) of 54 health facilities surveyed were privately-owned, among which 42 (91%) did not report to DHIS2 and 39 (85%) had no health worker trained on IDSR; both metrics were 100% in the eight public facilities. Weak community-based surveillance, poor private facility engagement, low suspicion index for VHF among health workers, inability of facilities to analyze and utilize surveillance data, lack of knowledge about to whom to report, funding constraints for surveillance activities, lack of IDSR training, and lack of all-cause mortality surveillance were identified as gaps potentially contributing to delayed outbreak detection. CONCLUSION: Both systemic and knowledge-related gaps in IDSR surveillance in SVD-affected districts contributed to the delayed detection of the 2022 Uganda SVD outbreak. Targeted interventions to address these gaps in both public and private facilities across Uganda could help avert similar situations in the future.
Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks , Humans , Uganda/epidemiology , Female , Male , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/diagnosis , Adult , Sudan/epidemiology , Population Surveillance/methods , Hemorrhagic Fevers, Viral/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fevers, Viral/diagnosisABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Ebola virus disease (EVD) is associated with multisystem organ failure and high mortality. Severe hypoglycaemia is common, life-threatening, and correctable in critically ill patients, but glucose monitoring may be limited in EVD treatment units. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective review of patients admitted to EVD treatment units in Butembo and Katwa, Eastern DRC. Glucose measurements were done using a handheld glucometer at the bedside or using the Piccolo xpress Chemistry Analyzer on venous samples. FINDINGS: 384 patients (median age 30 years (interquartile range, IQR, 20-45), 57% female) and 6422 glucose measurements (median 11 per patient, IQR 4-22) were included in the analysis. Severe hypoglycaemia (≤2.2 mmol/L) and hyperglycaemia (>10 mmol/L) were recorded at least once during the ETU admission in 97 (25%) and 225 (59%) patients, respectively. A total of 2004 infusions of glucose-containing intravenous solutions were administered to 302 patients (79%) with a median cumulative dose of 175g (IQR 100-411). The overall case fatality rate was 157/384 (41%) and was 2.2-fold higher (95% CI 1.3-3.8) in patients with severe hypoglycaemia than those without hypoglycaemia (p = 0.0042). In a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, periods of severe hypoglycaemia (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 6.2, 95% CI 3.2-12, p < 0.0001) and moderate hypoglycaemia (aHR 3.0, 95% CI 1.9-4.8, p < 0.0001) were associated with elevated mortality. INTERPRETATION: Hypoglycaemia is common in EVD, requires repeated correction with intravenous dextrose solutions, and is associated with mortality. FUNDING: This study was not supported by any specific funding.
Subject(s)
Blood Glucose , Disease Outbreaks , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola , Hypoglycemia , Humans , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/blood , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/virology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/mortality , Female , Male , Adult , Retrospective Studies , Hypoglycemia/epidemiology , Middle Aged , Blood Glucose/analysis , Hyperglycemia/epidemiology , Hyperglycemia/blood , Ebolavirus , Young AdultABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Many Ebola virus disease (EVD) survivors have reported somatic and neuropsychological symptoms after discharge from the Ebola Treatment Unit (ETU). Since the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa, various studies have investigated and identified these symptoms. Evidence on somatic symptoms is widely available in the literature, however, there is no concise overview of the prevalence across different time intervals. METHODS: This meta-analysis was conducted following the (PRISMA) guidelines. A database search was conducted to identify original studies that reported the prevalence of symptoms. The primary outcome measure was the prevalence rate of several somatic symptoms. Results were pooled, and prevalence rates were assessed over time, to elucidate any particular trends. RESULTS: We included 23 studies (5,714 participants). The pooled prevalence was: arthralgia 50% (95% CI: 41%-59%); headache 44% (95% CI: 36%-52%); myalgia 32% (95% CI: 26%-38%); abdominal pain 27% (95% CI: 15%-39%); fatigue 25% (95% CI: 19%-31%); numbness of feet 16% (95% CI: 14%-18%); numbness of hands 12% (95% CI: 10%-14%) and hearing loss 9% (95% CI: 5%-12%). Prevalence across different time intervals revealed significant patterns. All the symptoms persisted for more than 2 years after discharge except for abdominal pain. CONCLUSION: The pooled prevalence rates of somatic symptoms are notably high. Arthralgia and headache are the most prevalent of the symptoms, with hearing loss and numbness in hands and feet being the least. We found that arthralgia, myalgia, and abdominal pain decreased over time. However, headache, fatigue, numbness of hands and feet, and hearing loss increased over time.
Subject(s)
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola , Survivors , Humans , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Prevalence , Survivors/statistics & numerical data , Survivors/psychology , Medically Unexplained Symptoms , Arthralgia/epidemiology , Headache/epidemiology , Africa, Western/epidemiology , Fatigue/epidemiology , Africa/epidemiologyABSTRACT
The 2014 West Africa Ebola virus disease outbreak prompted the deployment to Sierra Leone of non-governmental organisations and the UK Joint Inter-Agency Taskforce including personnel from the UK Defence Medical Services (DMS). Some of these military personnel partnered with the Republic of Sierra Leone Armed Forces (RSLAF) as an example of Defence Healthcare Engagement (DHE).UK DMS mentors assisted RSLAF to plan and upscale Ebola treatment units. Use of military analysis and planning tools facilitated robust and flexible plans to be produced while under significant time and resource constraints. Macrosimulation exercises enabled large numbers to be trained and standard operating procedures to be developed.Fundamental to success was a mutual respect between the DHE partners while maintaining host nation primacy throughout. DHE in this example offered advantages over non-governmental organisations. Transferable lessons for future DHE from the RSLAF-UK DMS partnership are described in this paper.
Subject(s)
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola , Humans , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/therapy , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Sierra Leone/epidemiology , United Kingdom , Military Personnel/statistics & numerical data , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Military Medicine/methodsABSTRACT
Introduction: Health systems including mental health (MH) systems are resilient if they protect human life and produce better health outcomes for all during disease outbreaks or epidemics like Ebola disease and their aftermaths. We explored the resilience of MH services amidst Ebola disease outbreaks in Africa; specifically, to (i) describe the pre-, during-, and post-Ebola disease outbreak MH systems in African countries that have experienced Ebola disease outbreaks, (ii) determine the prevalence of three high burden MH disorders and how those prevalences interact with Ebola disease outbreaks, and, (iii) describe the resilience of MH systems in the context of these outbreaks. Methods: This was a scoping review employing an adapted PRISMA statement. We conducted a five-step Boolean strategy with both free text and Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) to search 9 electronic databases and also searched WHO MINDbank and MH Atlas. Results: The literature search yielded 1,230 publications. Twenty-five studies were included involving 13,449 participants. By 2023, 13 African nations had encountered a total of 35 Ebola outbreak events. None of these countries had a metric recorded in MH Atlas to assess the inclusion of MH in emergency plans. The three highest-burden outbreak-associated MH disorders under the MH and Psychosocial Support (MHPSS) framework were depression, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and anxiety with prevalence ranges of 1.4-7%, 2-90%, and 1.3-88%, respectively. Furthermore, our analysis revealed a concerning lack of resilience within the MH systems, as evidenced by the absence of pre-existing metrics to gauge MH preparedness in emergency plans. Additionally, none of the studies evaluated the resilience of MH services for individuals with pre-existing needs or examined potential post-outbreak degradation in core MH services. Discussion: Our findings revealed an insufficiency of resilience, with no evaluation of services for individuals with pre-existing needs or post-outbreak degradation in core MH services. Strengthening MH resilience guided by evidence-based frameworks must be a priority to mitigate the long-term impacts of epidemics on mental well-being.
Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola , Mental Health Services , Humans , Africa/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/psychology , Mental Health Services/organization & administration , Mental Health Services/statistics & numerical data , Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/epidemiology , Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/psychologyABSTRACT
Ebolavirus disease (EVD) outbreaks have intermittently occurred since the first documented case in the 1970s. Due to its transmission characteristics, large outbreaks have not been observed outside Africa. However, within the continent, significant outbreaks have been attributed to factors such as endemic diseases with similar symptoms and inadequate medical infrastructure, which complicate timely diagnosis. In this study, we employed a stochastic modeling approach to analyze the spread of EVD during the early stages of an outbreak, with an emphasis on inherent risks. We developed a model that considers healthcare workers and unreported cases, and assessed the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) using actual data. Our results indicate that the implementation of NPIs led to a decrease in the transmission rate and infectious period by 30% and 40% respectively, following the declaration of the outbreak. We also investigated the risks associated with delayed outbreak recognition. Our simulations suggest that, when accounting for NPIs and recognition delays, prompt detection could have resulted in a similar outbreak scale, with approximately 50% of the baseline NPIs effect. Finally, we discussed the potential effects of a vaccination strategy as a follow-up measure after the outbreak declaration. Our findings suggest that a vaccination strategy can reduce both the burden of NPIs and the scale of the outbreak.
Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola , Vaccination , Humans , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/prevention & control , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Stochastic Processes , Models, Statistical , Ebolavirus/immunologyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Dynamical mathematical models defined by a system of differential equations are typically not easily accessible to non-experts. However, forecasts based on these types of models can help gain insights into the mechanisms driving the process and may outcompete simpler phenomenological growth models. Here we introduce a friendly toolbox, SpatialWavePredict, to characterize and forecast the spatial wave sub-epidemic model, which captures diverse wave dynamics by aggregating multiple asynchronous growth processes and has outperformed simpler phenomenological growth models in short-term forecasts of various infectious diseases outbreaks including SARS, Ebola, and the early waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. RESULTS: This tutorial-based primer introduces and illustrates a user-friendly MATLAB toolbox for fitting and forecasting time-series trajectories using an ensemble spatial wave sub-epidemic model based on ordinary differential equations. Scientists, policymakers, and students can use the toolbox to conduct real-time short-term forecasts. The five-parameter epidemic wave model in the toolbox aggregates linked overlapping sub-epidemics and captures a rich spectrum of epidemic wave dynamics, including oscillatory wave behavior and plateaus. An ensemble strategy aims to improve forecasting performance by combining the resulting top-ranked models. The toolbox provides a tutorial for forecasting time-series trajectories, including the full uncertainty distribution derived through parametric bootstrapping, which is needed to construct prediction intervals and evaluate their accuracy. Functions are available to assess forecasting performance, estimation methods, error structures in the data, and forecasting horizons. The toolbox also includes functions to quantify forecasting performance using metrics that evaluate point and distributional forecasts, including the weighted interval score. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed the first comprehensive toolbox to characterize and forecast time-series data using an ensemble spatial wave sub-epidemic wave model. As an epidemic situation or contagion occurs, the tools presented in this tutorial can facilitate policymakers to guide the implementation of containment strategies and assess the impact of control interventions. We demonstrate the functionality of the toolbox with examples, including a tutorial video, and is illustrated using daily data on the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Forecasting , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Forecasting/methods , SARS-CoV-2 , Epidemics/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics , Models, Theoretical , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Models, StatisticalABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The 2022 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak occurred at a time when Uganda was still battling the social and psychological challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic; placing health care professionals (HCPs) at a much higher risk of developing psychological distress. Psychological distress among HCPs can cause decreased workplace productivity and ineffective management of their patients. The current study aimed to investigate and understand psychological distress among HCPS in Mbarara city in Southwestern Uganda following the 2022 EVD outbreak. METHOD: We enrolled 200 HCPs through convenient sampling from one private and one public health facility in Mbarara city in Southwestern Uganda, in a cross-sectional convergent parallel mixed method approach where qualitative and quantitative data were collected concurrently. Quantitative data, utilizing the Kessler Psychological Distress (K10) Scale, provided us with a quantitative measure of the prevalence of psychological distress among HCPs, and were analyzed using STATA version 16. Qualitative data, on the other hand, offered deeper insights into the nature, perceptions, and contextual factors influencing this distress, and were analyzed using emergent theme analysis. RESULTS: The prevalence of psychological distress was 59.5% and it was higher among females (63.9%) compared to males (36.1%). HCPs vividly expressed distress and anxiety, with heightened suspicion that every patient might be an EVD carrier, creating a pervasive sense of unsafety in the workplace. However, the outbreak had an educational affect where concerns about the announcement of another EVD outbreak were diverse, with HCPs expressing anxiety, despair, and dissatisfaction with the country's management of potential outbreaks. CONCLUSION: High levels of psychological distress were experienced by HCPs in Southwestern Uganda as a result of the 2022 EVD pandemic. HCPs express a wide range of feelings, such as dread, anxiety, despair, pessimism, and discontent with the way the outbreaks are handled throughout the nation. We recommend implementation of comprehensive psychosocial support programs tailored to the unique needs of HCPs, including counseling services, stress management workshops, and peer support networks.
Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks , Health Personnel , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola , Psychological Distress , Humans , Uganda/epidemiology , Male , Female , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/psychology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Health Personnel/psychology , Adult , Cross-Sectional Studies , COVID-19/psychology , COVID-19/epidemiology , Middle Aged , Prevalence , Qualitative Research , Young Adult , Stress, Psychological/epidemiology , Stress, Psychological/psychologyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: On 20 September 2022, the Ugandan Ministry of Health declared an outbreak of Ebola disease caused by Sudan ebolavirus. METHODS: From 6 October 2022 to 10 January 2023, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) staff conducted public health assessments at five US ports of entry for travellers identified as having been in Uganda in the past 21 days. CDC also recommended that state, local and territorial health departments ('health departments') conduct post-arrival monitoring of these travellers. CDC provided traveller contact information, daily to 58 health departments, and collected health department data regarding monitoring outcomes. RESULTS: Among 11 583 travellers screened, 132 (1%) required additional assessment due to potential exposures or symptoms of concern. Fifty-three (91%) health departments reported receiving traveller data from CDC for 10 114 (87%) travellers, of whom 8499 (84%) were contacted for monitoring, 1547 (15%) could not be contacted and 68 (1%) had no reported outcomes. No travellers with high-risk exposures or Ebola disease were identified. CONCLUSION: Entry risk assessment and post-arrival monitoring of travellers are resource-intensive activities that had low demonstrated yield during this and previous outbreaks. The efficiency of future responses could be improved by incorporating an assessment of risk of importation of disease, accounting for individual travellers' potential for exposure, and expanded use of methods that reduce burden to federal agencies, health departments, and travellers.
Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola , Travel , Humans , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/prevention & control , Uganda/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Risk Assessment/methods , United States/epidemiology , Male , Female , Adult , Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. , Public Health/methods , Middle Aged , Ebolavirus , Adolescent , Young AdultABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of orthoebolavirus antibodies in Madina Oula, a non-epidemic rural area in Guinea, in 2022. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted from March 14 to April 3, 2022 involving recording household and socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle data, and collecting dried blood spots from 878 individuals in 235 households. Dried blood spots were tested using multiplex serology to detect antibodies to different orthoebolaviruses: Ebola virus, Bundibugyo virus, Sudan virus, Reston virus, and Bombali virus. Seroprevalence was estimated with a 95% confidence interval and a Z-test was performed to compare the seropositivity between children aged under 15 years and those over 15 years. Household and participant characteristics were analyzed using descriptive statistic, and socio-historical conditions were discussed. RESULTS: The serological analysis conducted in 2022 on 878 participants revealed varying reactivity to orthoebolavirus antigens, notably, with glycoprotein antigens, particularly, glycoprotein Sudan virus (16%). A total of 21 samples exhibited reactivity with at least two antigens, with a median age of 27 years (interquartile range 10.00-35.00), ranging from 2 to 80 years. There is no significant difference between seropositivity in children aged under 15 (2.86%) years and those over 15 (2.14%) years. The antibody presence varied per village, with the highest prevalence observed in Ouassou and Dar-es-Salam. CONCLUSIONS: Serological data in a region unaffected by recent Ebola outbreaks indicate possible orthoebolavirus endemicity, emphasizing the need for preparedness against known or novel orthoebolaviruses with potential cross-reactivity.
Subject(s)
Antibodies, Viral , Ebolavirus , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola , Rural Population , Humans , Adolescent , Cross-Sectional Studies , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Male , Female , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/blood , Child , Antibodies, Viral/blood , Child, Preschool , Adult , Ebolavirus/immunology , Young Adult , Guinea/epidemiology , Middle Aged , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Endemic Diseases , PrevalenceABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: Unrecognized Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) can lead to multiple chains of transmissions if the first caretakers are not trained and prepared. This study aimed to assess healthcare workers (HCWs) preparedness in private hospitals located in Kampala, to detect, respond and prevent EVD. METHODOLOGY: A descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out among HCWs in direct clinical care provision in four private hospitals, and in one Ebola Treatment Unit (ETU) using a self-administered questionnaire from March to June 2020. RESULTS: 222 HCWs agreed to participate aged from 19 to 64 years and with 6 months to 38 years of practice where most were nurses (44%). 3/5 hospitals did not have written protocols on EVD case management, and only one (ETU) had an exclusive emergency team. 59% were not sure whether contact tracing was taking place. Private hospitals were not included in EVD trainings organized by the Ministry of Health (MoH). In addition, HCWs in private hospitals were not empowered by the MoH to take part in EVD case management. Despite these shortcomings, only 66% of HCWs showed an interest to be immunized. Knowledge about potential Ebola vaccines was generally poor. CONCLUSIONS: In Kampala, Uganda, establishment of a more comprehensive preparedness and response strategy for EVD outbreaks is imperative for HCWs in private facilities, including a wide vaccination educational program on Ebola vaccination. The findings from this study if addressed will likely improve the preparedness and management of future Ebola outbreaks in Uganda.
Subject(s)
Health Personnel , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola , Hospitals, Private , Humans , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/prevention & control , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Uganda/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Health Personnel/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Hospitals, Private/statistics & numerical data , Male , Middle Aged , Female , Young Adult , Surveys and Questionnaires , Epidemics/prevention & controlABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The West African Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic resulted in >28 000 disease cases and >11 000 fatalities. The unprecedented number of survivors from this epidemic has raised questions about the long-term mental health impacts of EVD survivorship and the capacity to meet these needs. OBJECTIVES: Assess the frequency and factors associated with mental health consequences of EVD survivorship in Sierra Leone. METHODS: A cross-sectional study of 595 EVD survivors and 403 close contacts (n=998) from Sierra Leone assessed via in-person survey between November 2021 and March 2022. The assessment included validated mental health screening tools (Patient Health Questionnaire-9, PTSD Checklist-5, Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, Drug Abuse Screening Test-20) to indicate the presence/absence of disorder. The frequency of each disorder and factors associated with each disorder were assessed. FINDINGS: EVD-associated post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was reported by 45.7% (n=257) of EVD survivors. Moreover, 3.9% (n=22) and 12.0% (n=67) of EVD survivors reported major depression (MD) and substance use, respectively; all mental health outcomes were higher than baseline rates in the region (PTSD: 6%-16%, MD: 1.1%, substance use: 2.2%). PTSD among EVD survivors was associated with acute EVD duration of ≥21 days (adjusted OR, AOR 2.24, 95% CI 1.16 to 4.43), 35-44 years of age (AOR 3.31, 95% CI 1.33 to 8.24; AOR 2.99, 95% CI 1.09 to 8.24) and residential mobility (AOR 4.16, 95% CI 2.35 to 7.35). CONCLUSIONS: Concerningly, the levels of mental health disorders among EVD survivors in Sierra Leone remained elevated 6-8 years after recovery. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Results can be used to inform policy efforts and target resources to address mental health in EVD survivors.