Influence of environmental, geographic, socio-demographic, and epidemiological factors on presence of malaria at the community level in two continents.

The interactions of environmental, geographic, socio-demographic, and epidemiological factors in shaping mosquito-borne disease transmission dynamics are complex and changeable, influencing the abundance and distribution of vectors and the pathogens they transmit. In this study, 27 years of cross-sectional malaria survey data (1990-2017) were used to examine the effects of these factors on Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria presence at the community level in Africa and Asia. Monthly long-term, open-source data for each factor were compiled and analyzed using generalized linear models and classification and regression trees. Both temperature and precipitation exhibited unimodal relationships with malaria, with a positive effect up to a point after which a negative effect was observed as temperature and precipitation increased. Overall decline in malaria from 2000 to 2012 was well captured by the models, as was the resurgence after that. The models also indicated higher malaria in regions with lower economic and development indicators. Malaria is driven by a combination of environmental, geographic, socioeconomic, and epidemiological factors, and in this study, we demonstrated two approaches to capturing this complexity of drivers within models. Identifying these key drivers, and describing their associations with malaria, provides key information to inform planning and prevention strategies and interventions to reduce malaria burden.

Mapping malaria transmission foci in Northeast Thailand from 2011 to 2021: approaching elimination in a hypoendemic area.

BACKGROUND: Thailand is approaching local elimination of malaria in the eastern provinces. It has successfully reduced the number of cases over the past decade, but there are persistent transmission hot spots in and around forests. This study aimed to use data from the malaria surveillance system to describe the spatiotemporal trends of malaria in Northeast Thailand and fine-scale patterns in locally transmitted cases between 2011 and 2021. METHODS: Case data was stratified based on likely location of infection and parasite species. Annual Parasite Index per 1000 population (API) was calculated for different categories. Time series decomposition was performed to identify trends and seasonal patterns. Statistically significant clusters of high (hot spots) and low (cold spots) API were identified using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. The stability of those hot spots and the absolute change in the proportion of API density from baseline were compared by case type. RESULTS: The total number of confirmed cases experienced a non-linear decline by 96.6%, from 1061 in 2011 to 36 in 2021. There has been a decline in both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum case numbers, with only four confirmed P. falciparum cases over the last two years-a 98.89% drop from 180 in 2011. API was generally higher in Si Sa Ket province, which had peaks every 2-3 years. There was a large outbreak in Ubon Ratchathani in 2014-2016 which had a high proportion of P. falciparum reported. The proportion of cases classified increased over the study period, and the proportion of cases classed as indigenous to the village of residence increased from 0.2% to 33.3%. There were stable hot spots of indigenous and imported cases in the south of Si Sa Ket and southeast of Ubon Ratchathani. Plasmodium vivax hot spots were observed into recent years, while those of P. falciparum decreased to zero in Ubon in 2020 and emerged in the eastern part in 2021, the same year that P. falciparum hot spots in Si Sa Ket reached zero. CONCLUSIONS: There has been a large, non-linear decline in the number of malaria cases reported and an increasing proportion of cases are classed as indigenous to the patient's village of residence. Stable hot spots of ongoing transmission in the forested border areas were identified, with transmission likely persisting because of remote location and high-risk forest-going behaviours. Future efforts should include cross-border collaboration and continued targeting of high-risk behaviours to reduce the risk of imported cases seeding local transmission.

Malaria transmission blocking activity of Anopheles stephensi alanyl aminopeptidase N antigen formulated with MPL, CpG, and QS21 adjuvants.

BACKGROUNDS: Malaria, a preventive and treatable disease, is still responsible for annual deaths reported in most tropical regions, principally in sub-Saharan Africa. Subunit recombinant transmission-blocking vaccines (TBVs) have been proposed as promising vaccines to succeed in malaria elimination and eradication. Here, a provisional study was designed to assess the immunogenicity and functional activity of alanyl aminopeptidase N (APN1) of Anopheles stephensi, as a TBV candidate, administered with MPL, CpG, and QS21 adjuvants in the murine model. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The mouse groups were immunized with recombinant APN1 (rAPN1) alone or formulated with CpG, MPL, QS-21, or a combination of adjuvants (CMQ), and the elicited immune responses were evaluated after the third immunization. The standard membrane feeding assay (SMFA) measured the functional activity of antibodies against bacterial-expressed APN1 protein in adjuvanted vaccine groups on transmission of P. falciparum (NF54) to An. stephensi mosquitoes. Evaluation of mice vaccinated with rAPN1 formulated with distinct adjuvants manifested a significant increase in the high-avidity level of anti-APN1 IgG and IgG subclasses; however, rAPN1 induced the highest level of high-avidity anti-APN1 IgG1, IgG2a, and IgG2b antibodies in the immunized vaccine group 5 (APN1/CMQ). In addition, vaccine group 5 (receiving APN1/CMQ), had still the highest level of anti-APN1 IgG antibodies relative to other immunized groups after six months, on day 180. The SMFA data indicates a trend towards higher transmission-reducing activity in groups 2 and 5, which received the antigen formulated with CpG or a combination of three adjuvants. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results have shown the capability of admixture to stimulate high-affinity and long-lasting antibodies against the target antigen to hinder Plasmodium parasite development in the mid-gut of An. stephensi. The attained results authenticated APN1/CMQ and APN1/CpG as a potent APN1-based TBV formulation which will be helpful in designing a vaccine in the future.

Unravelling heterogeneous malaria transmission dynamics in the Peruvian Amazon: insights from a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains a global health challenge, particularly in Peru's Loreto region. Despite ongoing efforts, high infection rates and asymptomatic cases perpetuate transmission. The Peruvian Ministry of Health's "Zero Malaria Plan" targets elimination. This novel study combines microscopic, molecular, and serological techniques to assess transmission intensity, identify epidemiological risk factors, and characterize species-specific patterns across villages. The findings aim to inform targeted interventions and support broader malaria elimination efforts in line with the Zero Malaria Plan initiative. METHODS: A cross-sectional malaria survey was conducted in the Zungarococha community, comprising the villages Llanchama (LL), Ninarumi (NI), Puerto Almendra (PA), and Zungarococha (ZG), using microscopic, molecular, and serological techniques to evaluate malaria transmission intensity. Statistical analysis, including multivariate-adjusted analysis, seroprevalence curves, and spatial clustering analysis, were performed to assess malaria prevalence, exposure, and risk factors. RESULTS: The survey revealed a high prevalence of asymptomatic infections (6% by microscopy and 18% by PCR), indicating that molecular methods are more sensitive for detecting asymptomatic infections. Seroprevalence varied significantly between villages, reflecting the heterogeneous malaria transmission dynamics. Multivariate analysis identified age, village, and limited bed net use as significant risk factors for malaria infection and species-specific exposure. Seroprevalence curves demonstrated community-specific patterns, with Llanchama and Puerto Almendra showing the highest seroconversion rates for both Plasmodium species. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights the diverse nature of malaria transmission in the Loreto region, particularly nothing the pronounced heterogeneity as transmission rates decline, especially in residual malaria scenarios. The use of molecular and serological techniques enhances the detection of current infections and past exposure, aiding in the identification of epidemiological risk factors. These findings underscore the importance of using molecular and serological tools to characterize malaria transmission patterns in low-endemic areas, which is crucial for planning and implementing targeted interventions and elimination strategies. This is particularly relevant for initiatives like the Zero Malaria Plan in the Peruvian Amazon.

Genomic surveillance of malaria parasites in an indigenous community in the Peruvian Amazon.

Hard-to-reach communities represent Peru's main challenge for malaria elimination, but information about transmission in these areas is scarce. Here, we assessed Plasmodium vivax (Pv) and P. falciparum (Pf) transmission dynamics, resistance markers, and Pf hrp2/3 deletions in Nueva Jerusalén (NJ), a remote, indigenous community in the Peruvian Amazon with high population mobility. We collected samples from November 2019 to May 2020 by active (ACD) and passive case detection (PCD) in NJ. Parasites were identified with microscopy and PCR. Then, we analyzed a representative set of positive-PCR samples (Pv = 68, Pf = 58) using highly-multiplexed deep sequencing assays (AmpliSeq) and compared NJ parasites with ones from other remote Peruvian areas using population genetics indexes. The ACD intervention did not reduce malaria cases in the short term, and persistent malaria transmission was observed (at least one Pv infection was detected in 96% of the study days). In Nueva Jerusalen, the Pv population had modest genetic diversity (He = 0.27). Pf population had lower diversity (He = 0.08) and presented temporal clustering, one of these clusters linked to an outbreak in February 2020. Moreover, Pv and Pf parasites from NJ exhibited variable levels of differentiation (Pv Fst = 0.07-0.52 and Pf Fst = 0.11-0.58) with parasites from other remote areas. No artemisin resistance mutations but chloroquine (57%) and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (35-67%) were detected in NJ's Pf parasites. Moreover, pfhrp2/3 gene deletions were common (32-50% of parasites with one or both genes deleted). The persistent Pv transmission and the detection of a Pf outbreak with parasites genetically distinct from the local ones highlight the need for tailored interventions focusing on mobility patterns and imported infections in remote areas to eliminate malaria in the Peruvian Amazon.

Additional blood meals increase sporozoite infection in Anopheles mosquitoes but not Plasmodium falciparum genetic diversity.

The availability of nutrients from mosquito blood meals accelerates the development of Plasmodium falciparum laboratory strains in artificially infected Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes. The impact of multiple blood meals on the number of P. falciparum genotypes developing from polyclonal natural human malaria infections (field-isolates) remains unexplored. Here, we experimentally infect An. gambiae with P. falciparum field-isolates and measure the impact of an additional non-infectious blood meal on parasite development. We also assess parasite genetic diversity at the blood stage level of the parasite in the human host and of the sporozoites in the mosquito. Additional blood meals increase the sporozoite infection prevalence and intensity, but do not substantially affect the genetic diversity of sporozoites in the mosquito. The most abundant parasite genotypes in the human blood were transmitted to mosquitoes, suggesting that there was no preferential selection of specific genotypes. This study underlines the importance of additional mosquito blood meals for the development of parasite field-isolates in the mosquito host.

AlbuMAX supplemented media induces the formation of transmission-competent P. falciparum gametocytes.

Asexual blood stage culture of Plasmodium falciparum is routinely performed but reproducibly inducing commitment to and maturation of viable gametocytes remains difficult. Culture media can be supplemented with human serum substitutes to induce commitment but these generally only allow for long-term culture of asexual parasites and not transmission-competent gametocytes due to their different lipid composition. Recent insights demonstrated the important roles lipids play in sexual commitment; elaborating on this we exposed ring stage parasites (20-24 hours hpi) for one day to AlbuMAX supplemented media to trigger induction to gametocytogenesis. We observed a significant increase in gametocytes after AlbuMAX induction compared to serum. We also tested the transmission potential of AlbuMAX inducted gametocytes and found a significant higher oocyst intensity compared to serum. We conclude that AlbuMAX supplemented media induces commitment, allows a more stable and predictable production of transmittable gametocytes than serum alone.

Strong isolation by distance and evidence of population microstructure reflect ongoing Plasmodium falciparum transmission in Zanzibar.

Background: The Zanzibar archipelago of Tanzania has become a low-transmission area for Plasmodium falciparum. Despite being considered an area of pre-elimination for years, achieving elimination has been difficult, likely due to a combination of imported infections from mainland Tanzania and continued local transmission. Methods: To shed light on these sources of transmission, we applied highly multiplexed genotyping utilizing molecular inversion probes to characterize the genetic relatedness of 282 P. falciparum isolates collected across Zanzibar and in Bagamoyo district on the coastal mainland from 2016 to 2018. Results: Overall, parasite populations on the coastal mainland and Zanzibar archipelago remain highly related. However, parasite isolates from Zanzibar exhibit population microstructure due to the rapid decay of parasite relatedness over very short distances. This, along with highly related pairs within shehias, suggests ongoing low-level local transmission. We also identified highly related parasites across shehias that reflect human mobility on the main island of Unguja and identified a cluster of highly related parasites, suggestive of an outbreak, in the Micheweni district on Pemba island. Parasites in asymptomatic infections demonstrated higher complexity of infection than those in symptomatic infections, but have similar core genomes. Conclusions: Our data support importation as a main source of genetic diversity and contribution to the parasite population in Zanzibar, but they also show local outbreak clusters where targeted interventions are essential to block local transmission. These results highlight the need for preventive measures against imported malaria and enhanced control measures in areas that remain receptive to malaria reemergence due to susceptible hosts and competent vectors. Funding: This research was funded by the National Institutes of Health, grants R01AI121558, R01AI137395, R01AI155730, F30AI143172, and K24AI134990. Funding was also contributed from the Swedish Research Council, Erling-Persson Family Foundation, and the Yang Fund. RV acknowledges funding from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (reference MR/R015600/1), jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), under the MRC/FCDO Concordat agreement and is also part of the EDCTP2 program supported by the European Union. RV also acknowledges funding by Community Jameel.

Efficacy of pyrethroid-pyriproxyfen and pyrethroid-chlorfenapyr nets on entomological indicators of malaria transmission: third year of a randomised controlled trial in Benin.

The present cluster-randomised control trial aims to assess the entomological efficacy of pyrethroid-pyriproxyfen and pyrethroid-chlorfenapyr LLINs compared to the standard pyrethroid-only LLINs, in their third year of community usage. Adult mosquito collections were performed every 3 months, in 4 randomly selected houses in each of the 60 trial clusters, using human landing catches. Adult mosquitoes were morphologically identified and Anopheles vectors were molecularly speciated and screened for the presence of the L1014F kdr mutation using PCR. Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite infection was assessed using ELISA. A subset of An. gambiae s.l. was also dissected to examine parity and fertility rates across study arms. There was no evidence of a significant reduction in indoor vector density and entomological inoculation rate by the pyrethroid-pyriproxyfen [DR 0.94 (95% CI 0.46-1.88), p = 0.8527; and RR 1.10 (95% CI 0.44-2.72), p = 0.8380], and pyrethroid-chlorfenapyr [DR 0.74 (95% CI 0.37-1.48), p = 0.3946; and RR 1.00 (95% CI 0.40-2.50), p = 0.9957] LLINs, respectively. The same trend was observed outdoors. Frequencies of the L1014F kdr mutation, as well as parous and fertility rates, were similar between study arms. In the third year after net distribution, entomological indicators show that the two dual active-ingredients nets performed similarly to the standard pyrethroid-only LLIN. To maintain malaria gains, it is crucial that net distribution cycles fit with their operational lifespan.

Ancient Plasmodium genomes shed light on the history of human malaria.

Malaria-causing protozoa of the genus Plasmodium have exerted one of the strongest selective pressures on the human genome, and resistance alleles provide biomolecular footprints that outline the historical reach of these species1. Nevertheless, debate persists over when and how malaria parasites emerged as human pathogens and spread around the globe1,2. To address these questions, we generated high-coverage ancient mitochondrial and nuclear genome-wide data from P. falciparum, P. vivax and P. malariae from 16 countries spanning around 5,500 years of human history. We identified P. vivax and P. falciparum across geographically disparate regions of Eurasia from as early as the fourth and first millennia BCE, respectively; for P. vivax, this evidence pre-dates textual references by several millennia3. Genomic analysis supports distinct disease histories for P. falciparum and P. vivax in the Americas: similarities between now-eliminated European and peri-contact South American strains indicate that European colonizers were the source of American P. vivax, whereas the trans-Atlantic slave trade probably introduced P. falciparum into the Americas. Our data underscore the role of cross-cultural contacts in the dissemination of malaria, laying the biomolecular foundation for future palaeo-epidemiological research into the impact of Plasmodium parasites on human history. Finally, our unexpected discovery of P. falciparum in the high-altitude Himalayas provides a rare case study in which individual mobility can be inferred from infection status, adding to our knowledge of cross-cultural connectivity in the region nearly three millennia ago.

Vectorial drivers of malaria transmission in Jabi Tehnan district, Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia.

Among the factors affecting the effectiveness of malaria control is poor knowledge of the entomologic drivers of the disease. We investigated anopheline populations as part of a baseline study to implement house screening of windows and doors as a supplementary malaria control tool towards elimination in Jabi Tehnan district, Amhara Regional State of Ethiopia. The samples were surveyed monthly using CDC light traps between June 2020 and May 2021. Mosquito trap density (< 3 mosquitoes/trap) was low, however, with a high overall Plasmodium sporozoite rate (9%; indoor = 4.3%, outdoor = 13.1%) comprising P. falciparum (88.9%) and P. vivax (11.1%). Anopheles gambiae s.l., mostly An. arabiensis, comprised > 80% of total anopheline captures and contributed ~ 42% of Plasmodium-infected mosquitoes. On the other hand, morphologically scored Anopheles funestus s.l., constituting about 6% of anopheline collections, accounted for 50% of sporozoite-infected mosquitoes. Most of the infected An. funestus s.l. specimens (86.7%) were grouped with previously unknown or undescribed Anopheles species previously implicated as a cryptic malaria vector in the western Kenyan highlands, confirming its wider geographic distribution in eastern Africa. Other species with Plasmodium infection included An. longipalpis C, An. theileri, An. demillioni, and An. nili. Cumulatively, 77.8% of the infected mosquitoes occurred outdoors. These results suggest efficient malaria parasite transmission despite the low vector densities, which has implications for effective endpoint indicators to monitor malaria control progress. Additionally, the largely outdoor infection and discovery of previously unknown and cryptic vectors suggest an increased risk of residual malaria transmission and, thus, a constraint on effective malaria prevention and control.

Mature beyond their years: young children who escape detection of parasitemia despite living in settings of intense malaria transmission.

Despite having the highest risk of progressing to severe disease due to lack of acquired immunity, the youngest children living in areas of highly intense malaria transmission have long been observed to be infected at lower rates than older children. Whether this observation is due to reduced exposure to infectious mosquito bites from behavioral and biological factors, maternally transferred immunity, genetic factors, or enhanced innate immunity in the young child has intrigued malaria researchers for over half a century. Recent evidence suggests that maternally transferred immunity may be limited to early infancy and that the young child's own immune system may contribute to control of malarial symptoms early in life and prior to the development of more effective adaptive immunity. Prospective studies of active and passive detection of Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage infections have identified young children (<5 years old) who remain uninfected through a defined surveillance period despite living in settings of highly intense malaria transmission. Yet, little is known about the potential immunological basis for this 'aparasitemic' phenotype. In this review, we summarize the observational evidence for this phenotype in field studies and examine potential reasons why these children escape detection of parasitemia, covering factors that are either extrinsic or intrinsic to their developing immune system. We discuss the challenges of distinguishing malaria protection from lack of malaria exposure in field studies. We also identify gaps in our knowledge regarding cellular immunity in the youngest age group and propose directions that researchers may take to address these gaps.

Artemether-lumefantrine with or without single-dose primaquine and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine with or without single-dose tafenoquine to reduce Plasmodium falciparum transmission: a phase 2, single-blind, randomised clinical trial in Ouelessebougou, Mali.

BACKGROUND: Artemether-lumefantrine is widely used for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria; sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine is used for seasonal malaria chemoprevention. We aimed to determine the efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine with and without primaquine and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine with and without tafenoquine for reducing gametocyte carriage and transmission to mosquitoes. METHODS: In this phase 2, single-blind, randomised clinical trial conducted in Ouelessebougou, Mali, asymptomatic individuals aged 10-50 years with P falciparum gametocytaemia were recruited from the community and randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) to receive either artemether-lumefantrine, artemether-lumefantrine with a single dose of 0·25 mg/kg primaquine, sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine, or sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine with a single dose of 1·66 mg/kg tafenoquine. All trial staff other than the pharmacist were masked to group allocation. Participants were not masked to group allocation. Randomisation was done with a computer-generated randomisation list and concealed with sealed, opaque envelopes. The primary outcome was the median within-person percent change in mosquito infection rate in infectious individuals from baseline to day 2 (artemether-lumefantrine groups) or day 7 (sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine groups) after treatment, assessed by direct membrane feeding assay. All participants who received any trial drug were included in the safety analysis. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05081089. FINDINGS: Between Oct 13 and Dec 16, 2021, 1290 individuals were screened and 80 were enrolled and randomly assigned to one of the four treatment groups (20 per group). The median age of participants was 13 (IQR 11-20); 37 (46%) of 80 participants were female and 43 (54%) were male. In individuals who were infectious before treatment, the median percentage reduction in mosquito infection rate 2 days after treatment was 100·0% (IQR 100·0-100·0; n=19; p=0·0011) with artemether-lumefantrine and 100·0% (100·0-100·0; n=19; p=0·0001) with artemether-lumefantrine with primaquine. Only two individuals who were infectious at baseline infected mosquitoes on day 2 after artemether-lumefantrine and none at day 5. By contrast, the median percentage reduction in mosquito infection rate 7 days after treatment was 63·6% (IQR 0·0-100·0; n=20; p=0·013) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine and 100% (100·0-100·0; n=19; p<0·0001) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine with tafenoquine. No grade 3-4 or serious adverse events occurred. INTERPRETATION: These data support the effectiveness of artemether-lumefantrine alone for preventing nearly all mosquito infections. By contrast, there was considerable post-treatment transmission after sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine; therefore, the addition of a transmission-blocking drug might be beneficial in maximising its community impact. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Malaria prevalence and use of control measures in an area with persistent transmission in Senegal.

INTRODUCTION: In Senegal, the widespread use of vector control measures has resulted in a significant reduction in the malaria burden and led the country to consider the possibility of elimination. Given this shift and changing context, it is important to characterize the malaria burden across all age groups to guide decision-making on programmatic interventions to interrupt transmission and ultimately eradicate the disease. In Senegal, there is a lack of information on malaria prevalence among certain populations, particularly among adolescents and adults. This study sought to assess the magnitude of malaria infections in all age groups, as well as malaria associated factors in an area of persistent transmission in Senegal. METHODS: A cross-sectional household survey was conducted in four health posts (Khossanto, Mamakhona, Diakhaling and Sambrambougou), of the health district of Saraya, in November 2021, among individuals over 6 months of age. Households were selected using multistage sampling. Consented participants were screened for malaria parasites by microscopic examination of blood smears, and hemoglobin levels were measured using the Hemocue HB 301TM analyzer. Socio-demographic information of the participants, household heads, household assets, and information on ownership and use of preventive measures were collected using a structured questionnaire. Weighted generalized mixed effects logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with microscopically confirmed malaria infection. RESULTS: A total of 1759 participants were enrolled in the study. Overall, about 21% of participants were classified as having Plasmodium infection; children aged 5-10 years old (26.6%), adolescents aged 10-19 years old (24.7%), and children under five years of age (20.5%) had higher rates of infection compared to adults (13.5%). Plasmodium falciparum accounted for 99.2% of the malaria infections, and most infections (69%) were asymptomatic. Around one-third of study participants had anemia (hemoglobin level <11.0 g/dl), with under five children bearing the highest burden (67.3%). Multivariate analysis showed that the odds of having a malaria infection were around 2 times higher among participants in Khossanto compared to Diakhaling (aOR = 1.84, 95% CI:1.06-3.20). Participants aged 5-9 years were more likely to have malaria infection compared to under five children (aOR = 1.40, 95% CI:1.02-1.91). Factors associated with anemia were P. falciparum infection (aOR = 1.36, p = 0.027), females (aOR = 2.16, p = 0.000), under-five age group (aOR = 13.01, p = 0.000). CONCLUSION: Malaria burden was considerable among adolescents and under ten children living in an area of persistent transmission, with adolescents more commonly presenting as asymptomatic. Interventions tailored to this specific group of the population are needed to better control the disease and reduce its burden.

Severe outcomes of malaria in children under time-varying exposure.

In malaria epidemiology, interpolation frameworks based on available observations are critical for policy decisions and interpreting disease burden. Updating our understanding of the empirical evidence across different populations, settings, and timeframes is crucial to improving inference for supporting public health. Here, via individual-based modeling, we evaluate a large, multicountry, contemporary Plasmodium falciparum severe malaria dataset to better understand the relationship between prevalence and incidence of malaria pediatric hospitalizations - a proxy of malaria severe outcomes- in East-Africa. We find that life-long exposure dynamics, and subsequent protection patterns in children, substantially determine the likelihood of malaria hospitalizations relative to ongoing prevalence at the population level. Unsteady transmission patterns over a lifetime in children -increasing or decreasing- lead to an exponential relationship of hospitalization rates versus prevalence rather than the asymptotic pattern observed under steady transmission. Addressing this increase in the complexity of malaria epidemiology is crucial to update burden assessments via inference models that guide current and future policy decisions.

A single cell atlas of sexual development in Plasmodium falciparum.

The developmental decision made by malaria parasites to become sexual underlies all malaria transmission. Here, we describe a rich atlas of short- and long-read single-cell transcriptomes of over 37,000 Plasmodium falciparum cells across intraerythrocytic asexual and sexual development. We used the atlas to explore transcriptional modules and exon usage along sexual development and expanded it to include malaria parasites collected from four Malian individuals naturally infected with multiple P. falciparum strains. We investigated genotypic and transcriptional heterogeneity within and among these wild strains at the single-cell level, finding differential expression between different strains even within the same host. These data are a key addition to the Malaria Cell Atlas interactive data resource, enabling a deeper understanding of the biology and diversity of transmission stages.

Plasmodium falciparum infection in humans and mosquitoes influence natural Anopheline biting behavior and transmission.

The human infectious reservoir of Plasmodium falciparum is governed by transmission efficiency during vector-human contact and mosquito biting preferences. Understanding biting bias in a natural setting can help target interventions to interrupt transmission. In a 15-month cohort in western Kenya, we detected P. falciparum in indoor-resting Anopheles and human blood samples by qPCR and matched mosquito bloodmeals to cohort participants using short-tandem repeat genotyping. Using risk factor analyses and discrete choice models, we assessed mosquito biting behavior with respect to parasite transmission. Biting was highly unequal; 20% of people received 86% of bites. Biting rates were higher on males (biting rate ratio (BRR): 1.68; CI: 1.28-2.19), children 5-15 years (BRR: 1.49; CI: 1.13-1.98), and P. falciparum-infected individuals (BRR: 1.25; CI: 1.01-1.55). In aggregate, P. falciparum-infected school-age (5-15 years) boys accounted for 50% of bites potentially leading to onward transmission and had an entomological inoculation rate 6.4x higher than any other group. Additionally, infectious mosquitoes were nearly 3x more likely than non-infectious mosquitoes to bite P. falciparum-infected individuals (relative risk ratio 2.76, 95% CI 1.65-4.61). Thus, persistent P. falciparum transmission was characterized by disproportionate onward transmission from school-age boys and by the preference of infected mosquitoes to feed upon infected people.

A simple, field-applicable method to increase the infectivity of wild isolates of Plasmodium falciparum to mosquito vectors.

BACKGROUND: The direct membrane feeding assay (DMFA), whereby gametocyte-infected blood is collected from human donors and from which mosquitoes feed through a membrane, is proving essential for assessing parameters influencing Plasmodium transmission potential in endemic countries. The success of DMFAs is closely tied to gametocyte density in the blood, with relatively high gametocytaemia ensuring optimal infection levels in mosquitoes. As transmission intensity declines with control efforts, the occurrence of asymptomatic individuals with low gametocyte densities, who can significantly contribute to the infectious reservoir, is increasing. This poses a limitation to studies relying on the experimental infection of large numbers of mosquitoes with natural isolates of Plasmodium. A simple, field-applicable method is presented for improving parasite infectivity by concentrating Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes. METHODS: Anopheles gambiae received one of the following 5 blood treatments through DMFA: (i) whole blood (WB) samples from naturally-infected donors; (ii) donor blood whose plasma was replaced with the same volume of Plasmodium-naive AB + serum (1:1 control); (iii) plasma replaced with a volume of malaria-naïve AB + serum equivalent to half (1:1/2), or to a quarter (1:1/4), of the initial plasma volume; and (v) donor blood whose plasma was fully removed (RBC). The experiment was repeated 4 times using 4 distinct wild parasite isolates. Seven days post-infection, a total of 1,095 midguts were examined for oocyst presence. RESULTS: Substituting plasma with reduced amounts (1:1/2 and 1:1/4) of Plasmodium-naive AB + serum led to a 31% and 17% increase of the mosquito infection rate and to a 85% and 308% increase in infection intensity compared to the 1:1 control, respectively. The full removal of plasma (RBC) reduced the infection rate by 58% and the intensity by 64% compared to the 1:1 control. Reducing serum volumes (1:1/2; 1:1/4 and RBC) had no impact on mosquito feeding rate and survival when compared to the 1:1 control. CONCLUSIONS: Concentrating gametocytic blood by replacing natural plasma by lower amount of naive serum can enhance the success of mosquito infection. In an area with low gametocyte density, this simple and practical method of parasite concentration can facilitate studies on human-to-mosquito transmission such as the evaluation of transmission-blocking interventions.

Descriptive, Hospital-Based, 10-Year Study of Malaria Transmission in Goa, a Southwest Indian State in the Malaria Elimination Phase.

The South Asia International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research, an NIH-funded collaborative program, investigated the epidemiology of malaria in the Indian state of Goa through health facility-based data collected from the Goa Medical College and Hospital (GMC), the state's largest tertiary healthcare facility, between 2012 and 2021. Our study investigated region-specific spatial and temporal patterns of malaria transmission in Goa and the factors driving such patterns. Over the past decade, the number of malaria cases, inpatients, and deaths at the GMC decreased significantly after a peak in 2014-2015. However, the proportion of severe malaria cases increased over the study period. Also, a trend of decreasing average parasitemia and increasing average gametocyte density suggests a shift toward submicroscopic infections and an increase in transmission commitment characteristic of low-transmission regions. Although transmission occurred throughout the year, 75% of the cases occurred between June and December, overlapping with the monsoon (June-October), which featured rainfall above yearly average, minimal diurnal temperature variation, and high relative humidity. Sociodemographic factors also had a significant association with malaria cases, with cases being more frequent in the 15-50-year-old age group, men, construction workers, and people living in urban areas within the GMC catchment region. Our environmental model of malaria transmission projects almost negligible transmission at the beginning of 2025 (annual parasitic index: 0.0095, 95% CI: 0.0075-0.0114) if the current control measures continue undisrupted.

Malaria Transmission at The Zimbabwe-Mozambique Border: An Observational Study of Parasitemia by Travel History and Household Location.

Cross-border human population movement contributes to malaria transmission in border regions, impeding national elimination. However, its impact in low-to-moderate transmission settings is not well characterized. This community-based study in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe, estimated the association of parasite prevalence with self-reported overnight travel to Mozambique and household distance to the border from 2012-2020. A fully adjusted Poisson regression model with robust variance estimation was fit using active surveillance data. The population attributable fraction of parasite prevalence from overnight travel was also estimated. The relative risk of testing positive for malaria by rapid diagnostic test declined 14% (prevalence ratio [PR] = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.81-0.92) per kilometer from the border up to 12 km away. Travel to Mozambique was associated with a 157% increased risk (PR = 2.57, 95% CI = 1.38-4.78), although only 5.8% of cases were attributable to overnight travel (95% CI = -1.1% to 12.7%), reflecting infrequent overnight trips (1.3% of visits). This study suggests that transmission in eastern Zimbabwe is driven by increasingly conducive social or environmental conditions approaching the border and low levels of importation from overnight travel. Although day trips to Mozambique during peak biting hours were not assessed, the contribution of such trips to ongoing transmission may be significant. Future malaria control efforts should prioritize high coverage of existing interventions and continued support for community health workers and health facilities at the border, which provide free case management.