Establishment and validation of a nomogram for dropout intention in Chinese early year medical undergraduates.

BACKGROUND: The attrition rate of Chinese medical students is high. This study utilizes a nomogram technique to develop a predictive model for dropout intention among Chinese medical undergraduates based on 19 individual and work-related characteristics. METHOD: A repeated cross-sectional study was conducted, enrolling 3536 medical undergraduates in T1 (August 2020-April 2021) and 969 participants in T2 (October 2022) through snowball sampling. Demographics (age, sex, study phase, income, relationship status, history of mental illness) and mental health factors (including depression, anxiety, stress, burnout, alcohol use disorder, sleepiness, quality of life, fatigue, history of suicidal attempts (SA), and somatic symptoms), as well as work-related variables (career choice regret and reasons, workplace violence experience, and overall satisfaction with the Chinese healthcare environment), were gathered via questionnaires. Data from T1 was split into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort, while T2 data served as an external validation cohort. The nomogram's performance was evaluated for discrimination, calibration, clinical applicability, and generalization using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULT: From 19 individual and work-related factors, five were identified as significant predictors for the construction of the nomogram: history of SA, career choice regret, experience of workplace violence, depressive symptoms, and burnout. The AUC values for the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts were 0.762, 0.761, and 0.817, respectively. The nomogram demonstrated reliable prediction and discrimination, with adequate calibration and generalization across both the training and validation cohorts. CONCLUSION: This nomogram exhibits reasonable accuracy in foreseeing dropout intentions among Chinese medical undergraduates. It could guide colleges, hospitals, and policymakers in pinpointing students at risk, thus informing targeted interventions. Addressing underlying factors such as depressive symptoms, burnout, career choice regret, and workplace violence may help reduce the attrition of medical undergraduates. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This is an observational study. There is no Clinical Trial Number associated with this manuscript.

Integrated nomogram to predict HER2 expression in breast tumor: Clinical, Ultrasound, and Photoacoustic imaging approaches.

BACKGROUND: HER2 is a key biomarker for breast cancer treatment and prognosis. Traditional assessment methods like immunohistochemistry (IHC) and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) are effective but costly and time-consuming. Our model incorporates these methods alongside photoacoustic imaging to enhance diagnostic accuracy and provide more comprehensive clinical insights. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 301 breast tumors were included in this study, divided into HER2-positive (3+ or 2+ with gene amplification) and HER2-negative (below 3+ and 2+ without gene amplification) groups. Samples were split into training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. Statistical analyses involved t-tests, chi-square tests, and rank-sum tests. Predictive factors were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic regression, leading to the creation of three models: ModA (clinical factors only), ModB (clinical plus ultrasound factors), and ModC (clinical, ultrasound, and photoacoustic imaging-derived oxygen saturation (SO2)). RESULTS: The area under the curve (AUC) for ModA was 0.756 (95 % CI: 0.69-0.82), ModB increased to 0.866 (95 % CI: 0.82-0.91), and ModC showed the highest performance with an AUC of 0.877 (95 % CI: 0.83-0.92). These results indicate that the comprehensive model combining clinical, ultrasound, and photoacoustic imaging data (ModC) performed best in predicting HER2 expression. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that integrating clinical, ultrasound, and photoacoustic imaging data significantly enhances the accuracy of predicting HER2 expression. For personalised breast cancer treatment, the integrated model could provide a comprehensive and reproducible decision support tool.

Development and validation of risk prediction model for adverse outcomes in trauma patients.

BACKGROUND: The prognosis of trauma patients is highly dependent on early medical diagnosis. By constructing a nomogram model, the risk of adverse outcomes can be displayed intuitively and individually, which has important clinical implications for medical diagnosis. OBJECTIVE: To develop and evaluate models for predicting patients with adverse outcomes of trauma that can be used in different data availability settings in China. METHODS: This was a retrospective prognostic study using data from 8 public tertiary hospitals in China from 2018. The data were randomly divided into a development set and a validation set. Simple, improved and extended models predicting adverse outcomes were developed, with adverse outcomes defined as in-hospital death or ICU transfer, and patient clinical characteristics, vital signs, diagnoses, and laboratory test values as predictors. The results of the models were presented in the form of nomograms, and performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC), precision-recall (PR) curves (PR-AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: Our final dataset consisted of 18,629 patients (40.2% female, mean age of 52.3), 1,089 (5.85%) of whom resulted in adverse outcomes. In the external validation set, three models achieved ROC-AUC of 0.872, 0.881, and 0.903, and a PR-AUC of 0.339, 0.337, and 0.403, respectively. In terms of the calibration curves and DCA, the models also performed well. CONCLUSIONS: This prognostic study found that three prediction models and nomograms including the patient clinical characteristics, vital signs, diagnoses, and laboratory test values can support clinicians in more accurately identifying patients who are at risk of adverse outcomes in different settings based on data availability.

Construction and evaluation of a mortality prediction model for patients with acute kidney injury undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy based on machine learning algorithms.

BACKGROUND: To construct and evaluate a predictive model for in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), based on nine machine learning (ML) algorithm. METHODS: The study retrospectively included patients with AKI who underwent CRRT during their initial hospitalization in the United States using the medical information mart for intensive care (MIMIC) database IV (version 2.0), as well as in the intensive care unit (ICU) of Huzhou Central Hospital. Patients from the MIMIC database were used as the training cohort to construct the models (from 2008 to 2019, n = 1068). Patients from Huzhou Central Hospital were utilized as the external validation cohort to evaluate the models (from June 2019 to December 2022, n = 327). In the training cohort, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression with cross-validation was employed to select features for constructing the model and subsequently established nine ML predictive models. The performance of these nine models on the external validation cohort dataset was comprehensively evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the optimal model was selected. A static nomogram and a web-based dynamic nomogram were presented, with a comprehensive evaluation from the perspectives of discrimination (AUROC), calibration (calibration curve) and clinical practicability (DCA curves). RESULTS: Finally, 1395 eligible patients were enrolled, including 1068 patients in the training cohort and 327 patients in the external validation cohort. In the training cohort, LASSO regression with cross-validation was employed to select features and nine models were individually constructed. Compared to the other eight models, the Lasso regularized logistic regression (Lasso-LR) model exhibited the highest AUROC (0.756) and the optimal calibration curve. The DCA curve suggested a certain clinical utility in predicting in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients with AKI undergoing CRRT. Consequently, the Lasso-LR model was the optimal model and it was visualized as a common nomogram (static nomogram) and a web-based dynamic nomogram (https://chsyh2006.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/). Discrimination, calibration and DCA curves were employed to assess the performance of the nomogram. The AUROC for the training and external validation cohorts in the nomogram model was 0.771 (95%CI: 0.743, 0.799) and 0.756 (95%CI: 0.702, 0.809), respectively. The calibration slope and Brier score for the training cohort were 1.000 and 0.195, while for the external validation cohort, they were 0.849 and 0.197, respectively. The DCA indicated that the model had a certain clinical application value. CONCLUSIONS: Our study selected the optimal model and visualized it as a static and dynamic nomogram integrating clinical predictors, so that clinicians can personalized predict the in-hospital outcome of critically ill patients with AKI undergoing CRRT upon ICU admission.

Predicting the risk category of thymoma with machine learning-based computed tomography radiomics signatures and their between-imaging phase differences.

The aim of this study was to develop a medical imaging and comprehensive stacked learning-based method for predicting high- and low-risk thymoma. A total of 126 patients with thymomas and 5 patients with thymic carcinoma treated at our institution, including 65 low-risk patients and 66 high-risk patients, were retrospectively recruited. Among them, 78 patients composed the training cohort, while the remaining 53 patients formed the validation cohort. We extracted 1702 features each from the patients' arterial-, venous-, and plain-phase images. Pairwise subtraction of these features yielded 1702 arterial-venous, arterial-plain, and venous-plain difference features each. The Mann‒Whitney U test and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and SelectKBest methods were employed to select the best features from the training set. Six models were built with a stacked learning algorithm. By applying stacked ensemble learning, three machine learning algorithms (XGBoost, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and random forest) were combined by XGBoost to produce the the six basic imaging models. Then, the XGBoost algorithm was applied to the six basic imaging models to construct a combined radiomic model. Finally, the radiomic model was combined with clinical information to create a nomogram that could easily be used in clinical practice to predict the thymoma risk category. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of the combined radiomic model in the training and validation cohorts were 0.999 (95% CI 0.988-1.000) and 0.967 (95% CI 0.916-1.000), respectively, while those of the nomogram were 0.999 (95% CI 0.996-1.000) and 0.983 (95% CI 0.990-1.000). This study describes the application of CT-based radiomics in thymoma patients and proposes a nomogram for predicting the risk category for this disease, which could be advantageous for clinical decision-making for affected patients.

Machine learning and experimental validation of novel biomarkers for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and cancers.

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a hereditary cardiac disorder marked by anomalous thickening of the myocardium, representing a significant contributor to mortality. While the involvement of immune inflammation in the development of cardiac ailments is well-documented, its specific impact on HCM pathogenesis remains uncertain. Five distinct machine learning algorithms, namely LASSO, SVM, RF, Boruta and XGBoost, were utilized to discover new biomarkers associated with HCM. A unique nomogram was developed using two newly identified biomarkers and subsequently validated. Furthermore, samples of HCM and normal heart tissues were gathered from our institution to confirm the variance in expression levels and prognostic significance of GATM and MGST1. Five novel biomarkers (DARS2, GATM, MGST1, SDSL and ARG2) associated with HCM were identified. Subsequent validation revealed that GATM and MGST1 exhibited significant diagnostic utility for HCM in both the training and test cohorts, with all AUC values exceeding 0.8. Furthermore, a novel risk assessment model for HCM patients based on the expression levels of GATM and MGST1 demonstrated favourable performance in both the training (AUC = 0.88) and test cohorts (AUC = 0.9). Furthermore, our study revealed that GATM and MGST1 exhibited elevated expression levels in HCM tissues, demonstrating strong discriminatory ability between HCM and normal cardiac tissues (AUC of GATM = 0.79; MGST1 = 0.86). Our findings suggest that two specific cell types, monocytes and multipotent progenitors (MPP), may play crucial roles in the pathogenesis of HCM. Notably, GATM and MGST1 were found to be highly expressed in various tumours and showed significant prognostic implications. Functionally, GATM and MGST1 are likely involved in xenobiotic metabolism and epithelial mesenchymal transition in a wide range of cancer types. GATM and MGST1 have been identified as novel biomarkers implicated in the progression of both HCM and cancer. Additionally, monocytes and MPP may also play a role in facilitating the progression of HCM.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram Model for Predicting in-Hospital Mortality in non-Diabetic Patients with non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Myocardial Infarction.

Non-ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) is a life-threatening clinical emergency with a poor prognosis. However, there are no individualized nomogram models to identify patients at high risk of NSTEMI who may undergo death. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram for in-hospital mortality in patients with NSTEMI to facilitate rapid risk stratification of patients. A total of 774 non-diabetic patients with NSTEMI were included in this study. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression was used to initially screen potential predictors. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression (backward stepwise selection) analyses were performed to identify the optimal predictors for the prediction model. The corresponding nomogram was constructed based on those predictors. The receiver operating characteristic curve, GiViTI calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. The nomogram model consisting of six predictors: age (OR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05-1.15), blood urea nitrogen (OR = 1.06; 95% CI: 1.00-1.12), albumin (OR = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.87-1.00), triglyceride (OR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.09-2.00), D-dimer (OR = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.06-1.80), and aspirin (OR = 0.16; 95% CI: 0.06-0.42). The nomogram had good discrimination (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.84-0.94), calibration, and clinical usefulness. In this study, we developed a nomogram model to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with NSTEMI based on common clinical indicators. The proposed nomogram has good performance, allowing rapid risk stratification of patients with NSTEMI.

Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting venous thromboembolism risk in lung cancer patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors: A cohort study in China.

OBJECTIVE: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) poses a significant threat to lung cancer patients, particularly those receiving treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting the occurrence of VTE in lung cancer patients undergoing ICI therapy. METHODS: The data for this retrospective cohort study was collected from cancer patients admitted to Chongqing University Cancer Hospital for ICI treatment between 2019 and 2022. The research data is divided into training and validation sets using a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate analyses were employed to identify risk factors for VTE. Based on these analyses, along with clinical expertise, a nomogram model was crafted. The model's predictive accuracy was assessed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis, clinical impact curve, and other relevant metrics. RESULTS: The initial univariate analysis pinpointed 13 potential risk factors for VTE. The subsequent stepwise multivariate regression analysis identified age, Karnofsky performance status, chemotherapy, targeted, platelet count, lactate dehydrogenase, monoamine oxidase, D-dimer, fibrinogen, and white blood cell count as significant predictors of VTE. These 10 variables were the foundation for a predictive model, illustrated by a clear and intuitive nomogram. The model's discriminative ability was demonstrated by the ROC curve, which showed an area under the curve of 0.815 (95% CI 0.772-0.858) for the training set, and 0.753 (95% CI 0.672-0.835) for the validation set. The model's accuracy was further supported by Brier scores of 0.068 and 0.080 for the training and validation sets, respectively, indicating a strong correlation with actual outcomes. CONCLUSION: We have successfully established and validated a nomogram model for predicting VTE risk in lung cancer patients treated with ICIs.

Development and validation of a predictive nomogram for the risk of MAFLD in postmenopausal women.

Background and aim: Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) has gradually become one of the main health concerns regarding liver diseases. Postmenopausal women represent a high-risk group for MAFLD; therefore, it is of great importance to identify and intervene with patients at risk at an early stage. This study established a predictive nomogram model of MAFLD in postmenopausal women and to enhance the clinical utility of the new model, the researchers limited variables to simple clinical and laboratory indicators that are readily obtainable. Methods: Data of 942 postmenopausal women from January 2023 to October 2023 were retrospectively collected and divided into two groups according to the collection time: the training group (676 cases) and the validation group (226 cases). Significant indicators independently related to MAFLD were identified through univariate logistic regression and stepwise regression, and the MAFLD prediction nomogram was established. The C-index and calibration curve were used to quantify the nomogram performance, and the model was evaluated by measuring the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Of 37 variables, 11 predictors were identified, including occupation (worker), body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, number of abortions, anxiety, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, hyperuricemia, and diet (meat and processed meat). The C-index of the training group predicting the related risk factors was 0.827 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.794-0.860). The C-index of the validation group was 0.787 (95% CI 0.728-0.846). Calibration curves 1 and 2 (BS1000 times) were close to the diagonal, showing a good agreement between the predicted probability and the actual incidence in the two groups. The AUC of the training group was 0.827, the sensitivity was 0.784, and the specificity was 0.735. The AUC of the validation group was 0.787, the sensitivity was 0.674, and the specificity was 0.772. The DCA curve showed that the nomogram had a good net benefit in predicting MAFLD in postmenopausal women. Conclusions: A predictive nomogram for MAFLD in postmenopausal women was established and verified, which can assist clinicians in evaluating the risk of MAFLD at an early stage.

A radiomics nomogram based on multiparametric MRI for diagnosing focal cortical dysplasia and initially identifying laterality.

BACKGROUND: Focal cortical dysplasia (FCD) is the most common epileptogenic developmental malformation. The diagnosis of FCD is challenging. We generated a radiomics nomogram based on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to diagnose FCD and identify laterality early. METHODS: Forty-three patients treated between July 2017 and May 2022 with histopathologically confirmed FCD were retrospectively enrolled. The contralateral unaffected hemispheres were included as the control group. Therefore, 86 ROIs were finally included. Using January 2021 as the time cutoff, those admitted after January 2021 were included in the hold-out set (n = 20). The remaining patients were separated randomly (8:2 ratio) into training (n = 55) and validation (n = 11) sets. All preoperative and postoperative MR images, including T1-weighted (T1w), T2-weighted (T2w), fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR), and combined (T1w + T2w + FLAIR) images, were included. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to select features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to develop the diagnosis model. The performance of the radiomic nomogram was evaluated with an area under the curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), calibration and clinical utility. RESULTS: The model-based radiomics features that were selected from combined sequences (T1w + T2w + FLAIR) had the highest performances in all models and showed better diagnostic performance than inexperienced radiologists in the training (AUCs: 0.847 VS. 0.664, p = 0.008), validation (AUC: 0.857 VS. 0.521, p = 0.155), and hold-out sets (AUCs: 0.828 VS. 0.571, p = 0.080). The positive values of NRI (0.402, 0.607, 0.424) and IDI (0.158, 0.264, 0.264) in the three sets indicated that the diagnostic performance of Model-Combined improved significantly. The radiomics nomogram fit well in calibration curves (p > 0.05), and decision curve analysis further confirmed the clinical usefulness of the nomogram. Additionally, the contrast (the radiomics feature) of the FCD lesions not only played a crucial role in the classifier but also had a significant correlation (r = -0.319, p < 0.05) with the duration of FCD. CONCLUSION: The radiomics nomogram generated by logistic regression model-based multiparametric MRI represents an important advancement in FCD diagnosis and treatment.

A nomogram model combining computed tomography-based radiomics and Krebs von den Lungen-6 for identifying low-risk rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease.

Objectives: Quantitatively assess the severity and predict the mortality of interstitial lung disease (ILD) associated with Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) was a challenge for clinicians. This study aimed to construct a radiomics nomogram based on chest computed tomography (CT) imaging by using the ILD-GAP (gender, age, and pulmonary physiology) index system for clinical management. Methods: Chest CT images of patients with RA-ILD were retrospectively analyzed and staged using the ILD-GAP index system. The balanced dataset was then divided into training and testing cohorts at a 7:3 ratio. A clinical factor model was created using demographic and serum analysis data, and a radiomics signature was developed from radiomics features extracted from the CT images. Combined with the radiomics signature and independent clinical factors, a nomogram model was established based on the Rad-score and clinical factors. The model capabilities were measured by operating characteristic curves, calibration curves and decision curves analyses. Results: A total of 177 patients were divided into two groups (Group I, n = 107; Group II, n = 63). Krebs von den Lungen-6, and nineteen radiomics features were used to build the nomogram, which showed favorable calibration and discrimination in the training cohort [AUC, 0.948 (95% CI: 0.910-0.986)] and the testing validation cohort [AUC, 0.923 (95% CI: 0.853-0.993)]. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram performed well in terms of clinical usefulness. Conclusion: The CT-based radiomics nomogram model achieved favorable efficacy in predicting low-risk RA-ILD patients.

Multi-factor early monitoring method based on D-dimer for iliac crest flap loss.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, the utilization of autogenous vascularized iliac crest flap for repairing jaw defects has seen a significant rise. However, the visual monitoring of iliac bone flaps present challenges, frequently leading to delayed detection of flap loss. Consequently, there's a urgent need to develop effective indicators for monitoring postoperative complications in iliac crest flaps. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 160 patients who underwent vascularized iliac crest flap transplantation for jawbone reconstruction from January 2020 to December 2022. We investigated the changes in D-dimer levels among patients with or without postoperative complications. Additionally, multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to explore potential individual risk factors, including surgical duration, age, pathology type, absolute and relative D-dimer levels, and gender, culminating in the development of a nomogram. RESULTS: On the first day following surgery, patients who experienced thrombosis exhibited a substantial increase in plasma D-dimer levels, reaching 3.75 mg/L, 13.84 times higher than the baseline. This difference was statistically significant (P < 0.05) compared to patients without postoperative complications. Furthermore, the nomogram we have developed and validated effectively predicts venous thrombosis, assigning individual risk scores to patients. This predictive tool was assessed in both training and validation cohorts, achieving areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.630 and 0.600, with the 95% confidence intervals of 0.452-0.807 and 0.243-0.957, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our study illustrates that postoperative plasma D-dimer levels can serve as a sensitive biomarker for monitoring thrombosis-induced flap loss. Moreover, we have developed a novel prediction model that integrates multiple factors, thereby enhancing the accuracy of early identification of patients at risk of thrombosis-associated flap loss. This advancement contributes to improving the overall management and outcomes of such procedures.

[Biological prediction model of insulin resistance in obese adolescents based on LASSO-Logistic regression].

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors affecting the development of insulin resistance in obese adolescents, and to build a nomograph model for predicting the risk of insulin resistance and achieve early screening of insulin resistance. METHODS: A total of 404 obese adolescents aged 10 to 17 years were randomly recruited through a weight loss camp for the detection and diagnosis of lipids and insulin resistance between 2019 and 2021, and key lipid indicators affecting the development of insulin resistance were screened by Lasso regression, nomogram model was constructed, and internal validation of the models was performed by Bootstrap method, and the area under the working characteristic curve(ROC-AUC) and clinical decision curve were used to assess the calibration degree and stability of the column line graph. RESULTS: The AUC was 0.825(95% CI 0.782-0.868), the internal validation result C-Index was 0.804, the mean absolute error of the column line graph model to predict the risk of insulin resistance was 0.015 and the Brier score was 0.163. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed that model is ideal and acceptable(χ~2=5.59, P=0.70). CONCLUSION: The nomogram model of triglyceride, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol based on Lasso-logistic regression can effectively predict the risk of insulin resistance in obese children and adolescents.

Development of a Predictive Nomogram for Intra-Hospital Mortality in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients Using LASSO Regression.

Background and Purpose: Ischemic stroke is a leading cause of mortality and disability globally, necessitating accurate prediction of intra-hospital mortality (IHM) for improved patient care. This study aimed to develop a practical nomogram for personalized IHM risk prediction in ischemic stroke patients. Methods: A retrospective study of 422 ischemic stroke patients (April 2020 - December 2021) from Chongqing Medical University's First Affiliated Hospital was conducted, with patients divided into training (n=295) and validation (n=127) groups. Data on demographics, comorbidities, stroke risk factors, and lab results were collected. Stroke severity was assessed using NIHSS, and stroke types were classified by TOAST criteria. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was employed for predictor selection and nomogram construction, with evaluation through ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. Results: LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression identified four independent IHM predictors: age, admission NIHSS score, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) diagnosis, and white blood cell count (WBC). A highly accurate nomogram based on these variables exhibited excellent predictive performance, with AUCs of 0.958 (training) and 0.962 (validation), sensitivities of 93.2% and 95.7%, and specificities of 93.1% and 90.9%, respectively. Calibration curves and decision curve analysis validated its clinical applicability. Conclusion: Age, admission NIHSS score, COPD history, and WBC were identified as independent IHM predictors in ischemic stroke patients. The developed nomogram demonstrated high predictive accuracy and practical utility for mortality risk estimation. External validation and prospective studies are warranted for further confirmation of its clinical efficacy.

Impact of Extracellular Matrix-Related Genes on the Tumor Microenvironment and Prognostic Indicators in Esophageal Cancer: A Comprehensive Analytical Study.

Esophageal cancer is a major global health challenge with a poor prognosis. Recent studies underscore the extracellular matrix (ECM) role in cancer progression, but the full impact of ECM-related genes on patient outcomes remains unclear. Our study utilized next-generation sequencing and clinical data from esophageal cancer patients provided by The Cancer Genome Atlas, employing the R package in RStudio for computational analysis. This analysis identified significant associations between patient survival and various ECM-related genes, including IBSP, LINGO4, COL26A1, MMP12, KLK4, RTBDN, TENM1, GDF15, and RUNX1. Consequently, we developed a prognostic model to predict patient outcomes, which demonstrated clear survival differences between high-risk and low-risk patient groups. Our comprehensive review encompassed clinical correlations, biological pathways, and variations in immune response among these risk categories. We also constructed a nomogram integrating clinical information with risk assessment. Focusing on the TENM1 gene, we found it significantly impacts immune response, showing a positive correlation with T helper cells, NK cells, and CD8+ T cells, but a negative correlation with neutrophils and Th17 cells. Gene Set Enrichment Analysis revealed enhanced pathways related to pancreatic beta cells, spermatogenesis, apical junctions, and muscle formation in patients with high TENM1 expression. This research provides new insights into the role of ECM genes in esophageal cancer and informs future research directions.

[Screening and evaluation of clinical predictors of type 2 diabetes mellitus with cognitive impairment].

The present study aims to screen and evaluate the early clinical predictors for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia in Hunan province. A cross-sectional study was conducted from May 2023 to October 2023 to collect data on long-term T2DM patients who settled in Hunan province and were treated in the Department of Geriatrology at Xiangya Hospital of Central South University. The patients were grouped according to the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) scale. Basic patient information and multiple serum markers were collected, and differences between groups were compared using one-way ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis (KW) tests. The multivariate logistic regression analysis was utilized to assess risk factors and Nomogram models were constructed. The logistic regression analysis showed that years of education and serum levels of 1, 5-AG were related factors for the progression of T2DM to T2DM with MCI, and body weight, years of education and FPN levels affected the progression of T2DM with MCI to T2DM with dementia. Based on this, two Nomogram risk prediction models were established. The area under the curve (AUC) of the Nomogram model predicting T2DM progression to T2DM combined with MCI was 0.741, and the AUC of the Nomogram model predicting T2DM combined with MCI progression to T2DM combined with dementia was 0.734. The calibration curves (DCA) of the two models in the training and validation sets were symmetrically distributed near the diagonal line, indicating that the models in the training and validation sets could match each other. In summary, body weight, years of education, and serum HDL-3, FPN, and 1, 5-AG levels are associated with the development of MCI and dementia in T2DM patients. The Nomogram models constructed based on these factors can predict the risk of MCI and dementia in T2DM patients, providing a basis for clinical decision-making.

[The relationship between the expression of fibroblast growth factor 19 and insulin-like growth factor 1 in colorectal polyp tissues and the occurrence of colorectal adenomas].

Objective: This investigation sought to delineate the associations among colorectal adenomatous polyps, diabetes, and biomolecules involved in glucose metabolism. Method: Data were collected from 40 patients who underwent endoscopic polypectomy at the Endoscopy Department of Shandong Cancer Hospital between June 2019 and September 2021. This cohort included 27 patients with inflammatory polyps and 13 with adenomatous polyps. We assessed fasting insulin (Fins), fasting blood glucose (FBG), and the mRNA expressions of fibroblast growth factor 19 (FGF-19) and insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) in the polyp tissues. Both univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to ascertain the determinants influencing the emergence of adenomatous polyps. From these analyses, a predictive nomogram was constructed to forecast the occurrence of adenomatous polyps, and evaluations on the discriminative capacity, calibration, and clinical utility of the model were conducted. Results: The adenomatous polyp group exhibited markedly elevated levels of glucose, insulin, FGF-19, and IGF-1, with respective concentrations of (8.67±2.70) mmol/L, (12.72±7.69) µU/L, 2.20±1.88, and 1.36±0.69. These figures were significantly higher compared to the inflammatory polyp group, which showed levels of (5.51±0.72) mmol/L, (5.49±2.68) µU/L, 0.53±0.97, and 0.41±0.46, respectively, P=0.001. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that the relative expression of IGF-1 served as an independent risk factor for the development of colorectal adenomatous polyps (OR=5.622, 95% CI:1.085-29.126). The nomogram displayed a C-index of 0.849, indicating substantial discriminative capability. The calibration curve affirmed the model's accuracy in aligning predicted probabilities with actual outcomes, and the clinical decision curve demonstrated thepractical clinical applicability of the model. Conclusions: There was a significant correlation between the occurrence of colorectal adenomatous polyps and glucose metabolic pathways. Individuals with diabetes showed a higher propensity to develop such polyps.

A nomogram for predicting the overall survival in rectal cancer patients after total neoadjuvant therapy.

BACKGROUND: Total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) has been recommended by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network for treating locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), but extremely rare studies have focused on establishing nomograms to predict the prognosis in these patients after TNT. We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) in rectal cancer patients who underwent TNT. METHODS: In retrospective cohort study, we extract the data of the rectal cancer patients from the SEER database between 2010 and 2015, including demographic information and tumor characteristics. The cohort was divided into training set and validation set based on a ratio of 7:3. Univariate logistic regression analysis was utilized for the comparison of variables in training set. Candidate variables with P < 0.1 in training set was entered into the best subset selection, LASSO regression and Boruta feature selection. Finally, the selected variables significantly associated with the 3-year, 5-year, and 8-year OS were used to build a nomogram, followed by validation using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, area under the curve (AUC), and calibration curve. RESULTS: A total of 3265 rectal cancer patients (training set: 2285; test set: 980) were included in the present study. A nomogram was developed to predict the 3-year, 5-year, and 8-year OS based on age, household income, total number of in situ/malignant tumors, CEA, T stage, N stage and perineural invasion. The nomogram showed good efficiency in predicting the 3-year, 5-year and 8-year OS with good AUC for the training set and test set, respectively. CONCLUSION: We established a nomogram for predicting the 3-year, 5-year, and 8-year OS of the rectal cancer patients, which showed good prediction efficiency for the OS after TNT.

Prognostic factors of patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive breast cancer following neoadjuvant therapy: Development and validation of a predictive nomogram.

OBJECTIVE: Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer exhibits an aggressive phenotype and poor prognosis. The application of neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) in patients with breast cancer can significantly reduce the risks of disease recurrence and improve survival. By integrating different clinicopathological factors, nomograms are valuable tools for prognosis prediction. This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of clinicopathological factors in patients with HER2-positive breast cancer and construct a nomogram for outcome prediction. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the clinicopathological data from 374 patients with breast cancer admitted to the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University between January 2009 and December 2017, who were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer through preoperative core needle biopsy pathology, underwent surgical resection after NAT, and were HER2-positive. Patients were randomly divided into a training and validation set at a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results of the multivariate analysis were used to create nomograms predicting 3-, 5-, and 8-year overall survival (OS) rates. Calibration curves were plotted to test concordance between the predicted and actual risks. Harrell C-index and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the discriminability of the nomogram prediction model. RESULTS: All included patients were women, with a mean age of 50 ± 10.4 years (range: 26-72 years). In the training set, both univariate and multivariate analyses identified residual cancer burden (RCB) class, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes(TILs), and clinical stage as independent prognostic factors for OS, and these factors were combined to construct a nomogram. The calibration curves demonstrated good concordance between the predicted and actual risks, and the C-index of the nomogram was 0.882 (95 % CI 0.863-0.901). The 3-, 5-, and 8-year areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) were 0.909, 0.893, and 0.918, respectively, indicating good accuracy of the nomogram. The calibration curves also demonstrated good concordance in the validation set, with a C-index of 0.850 (95 % CI 0.804-0.896) and 3-, 5-, and 8-year AUCs of 0.909, 0.815, and 0.834, respectively, which also indicated good accuracy. CONCLUSION: The nomogram prediction model accurately predicted the prognostic status of post-NAT patients with breast cancer and was more accurate than clinical stage and RCB class. Therefore, it can serve as a reliable guide for selecting clinical treatment measures for breast cancer.

Clinical Calculator for Predicting Freedom From Recurrence After Resection of Stage I-III Colon Cancer in Patients With Microsatellite Instability.

PURPOSE: Outcome for patients with nonmetastatic, microsatellite instability (MSI) colon cancer is favorable: however, high-risk cohorts exist. This study was aimed at developing and validating a nomogram model to predict freedom from recurrence (FFR) for patients with resected MSI colon cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from patients who underwent curative resection of stage I, II, or III MSI colon cancer in 2014-2021 (model training cohort, 384 patients, 33 events; median follow-up, 38.8 months) were retrospectively collected from institutional databases. Variables associated with recurrence in multivariable analysis were selected for inclusion in the clinical calculator. The calculator's predictive accuracy was measured with the concordance index and validated using data from patients who underwent treatment for MSI colon cancer in 2007-2013 (validation cohort, 164 patients, eight events; median follow-up, 84.8 months). RESULTS: T category and number of positive lymph nodes were significantly associated with recurrence in multivariable analysis and were selected for inclusion in the clinical calculator. The calculator's concordance index for FFR in the model training cohort was 0.812 (95% CI, 0.742 to 0.873), compared with 0.759 (95% CI, 0.683 to 0.840) for the staging schema of the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer Staging Manual. The concordance index for the validation cohort was 0.744 (95% CI, 0.666 to 0.822), confirming robust predictive accuracy. CONCLUSION: Although in general patients with nonmetastatic MSI colon cancer had favorable outcome, patients with advanced T category and multiple metastatic lymph nodes had higher risk of recurrence. The clinical calculator identified patients with MSI colon cancer at high risk for recurrence, and this could inform surveillance strategies. In addition, the model could be used in trial design to identify patients suitable for novel adjuvant therapy.