Poissonian Cellular Potts Models Reveal Nonequilibrium Kinetics of Cell Sorting.

Cellular Potts models are broadly applied across developmental biology and cancer research. We overcome limitations of the traditional approach, which reinterprets a modified Metropolis sampling as ad hoc dynamics, by introducing a physical timescale through Poissonian kinetics and by applying principles of stochastic thermodynamics to separate thermal and relaxation effects from athermal noise and nonconservative forces. Our method accurately describes cell-sorting dynamics in mouse-embryo development and identifies the distinct contributions of nonequilibrium processes, e.g., cell growth and active fluctuations.

Probabilistic prediction and context tree identification in the Goalkeeper game.

In this article we address two related issues on the learning of probabilistic sequences of events. First, which features make the sequence of events generated by a stochastic chain more difficult to predict. Second, how to model the procedures employed by different learners to identify the structure of sequences of events. Playing the role of a goalkeeper in a video game, participants were told to predict step by step the successive directions-left, center or right-to which the penalty kicker would send the ball. The sequence of kicks was driven by a stochastic chain with memory of variable length. Results showed that at least three features play a role in the first issue: (1) the shape of the context tree summarizing the dependencies between present and past directions; (2) the entropy of the stochastic chain used to generate the sequences of events; (3) the existence or not of a deterministic periodic sequence underlying the sequences of events. Moreover, evidence suggests that best learners rely less on their own past choices to identify the structure of the sequences of events.

Extreme value statistics of nerve transmission delay.

Delays in nerve transmission are an important topic in the field of neuroscience. Spike signals fired or received by the dendrites of a neuron travel from the axon to a presynaptic cell. The spike signal then triggers a chemical reaction at the synapse, wherein a presynaptic cell transfers neurotransmitters to the postsynaptic cell, regenerates electrical signals via a chemical reaction through ion channels, and transmits them to neighboring neurons. In the context of describing the complex physiological reaction process as a stochastic process, this study aimed to show that the distribution of the maximum time interval of spike signals follows extreme-order statistics. By considering the statistical variance in the time constant of the leaky Integrate-and-Fire model, a deterministic time evolution model for spike signals, we enabled randomness in the time interval of the spike signals. When the time constant follows an exponential distribution function, the time interval of the spike signal also follows an exponential distribution. In this case, our theory and simulations confirmed that the histogram of the maximum time interval follows the Gumbel distribution, one of the three forms of extreme-value statistics. We further confirmed that the histogram of the maximum time interval followed a Fréchet distribution when the time interval of the spike signal followed a Pareto distribution. These findings confirm that nerve transmission delay can be described using extreme value statistics and can therefore be used as a new indicator of transmission delay.

A branching stochastic evolutionary model of the B-cell repertoire.

We propose a stochastic framework to describe the evolution of the B-cell repertoire during germinal center (GC) reactions. Our model is formulated as a multitype age-dependent branching process with time-varying immigration. The immigration process captures the mechanism by which founder B cells initiate clones by gradually seeding GC over time, while the branching process describes the temporal evolution of the composition of these clones. The model assigns a type to each cell to represent attributes of interest. Examples of attributes include the binding affinity class of the B cells, their clonal family, or the nucleotide sequence of the heavy and light chains of their receptors. The process is generally non-Markovian. We present its properties, including as t → ∞ when the process is supercritical, the most relevant case to study expansion of GC B cells. We introduce temporal alpha and beta diversity indices for multitype branching processes. We focus on the dynamics of clonal dominance, highlighting its non-stationarity, and the accumulation of somatic hypermutations in the context of sequential immunization. We evaluate the impact of the ongoing seeding of GC by founder B cells on the dynamics of the B-cell repertoire, and quantify the effect of precursor frequency and antigen availability on the timing of GC entry. An application of the model illustrates how it may help with interpretation of BCR sequencing data.

Threshold-awareness in adaptive cancer therapy.

Although adaptive cancer therapy shows promise in integrating evolutionary dynamics into treatment scheduling, the stochastic nature of cancer evolution has seldom been taken into account. Various sources of random perturbations can impact the evolution of heterogeneous tumors, making performance metrics of any treatment policy random as well. In this paper, we propose an efficient method for selecting optimal adaptive treatment policies under randomly evolving tumor dynamics. The goal is to improve the cumulative "cost" of treatment, a combination of the total amount of drugs used and the total treatment time. As this cost also becomes random in any stochastic setting, we maximize the probability of reaching the treatment goals (tumor stabilization or eradication) without exceeding a pre-specified cost threshold (or a "budget"). We use a novel Stochastic Optimal Control formulation and Dynamic Programming to find such "threshold-aware" optimal treatment policies. Our approach enables an efficient algorithm to compute these policies for a range of threshold values simultaneously. Compared to treatment plans shown to be optimal in a deterministic setting, the new "threshold-aware" policies significantly improve the chances of the therapy succeeding under the budget, which is correlated with a lower general drug usage. We illustrate this method using two specific examples, but our approach is far more general and provides a new tool for optimizing adaptive therapies based on a broad range of stochastic cancer models.

Dynamics of a stochastic modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey system with hunting cooperation.

In this paper, we consider a stochastic two-species predator-prey system with modified Leslie-Gower. Meanwhile, we assume that hunting cooperation occurs in the predators. By using Itô formula and constructing a proper Lyapunov function, we first show that there is a unique global positive solution for any given positive initial value. Furthermore, based on Chebyshev inequality, the stochastic ultimate boundedness and stochastic permanence are discussed. Then, under some conditions, we prove the persistence in mean and extinction of system. Finally, we verify our results by numerical simulations.

Asymmetric response emerges between creation and disintegration of force-bearing subcellular structures as revealed by percolation analysis.

Cells dynamically remodel their internal structures by modulating the arrangement of actin filaments (AFs). In this process, individual AFs exhibit stochastic behavior without knowing the macroscopic higher-order structures they are meant to create or disintegrate, but the mechanism allowing for such stochastic process-driven remodeling of subcellular structures remains incompletely understood. Here we employ percolation theory to explore how AFs interacting only with neighboring ones without recognizing the overall configuration can nonetheless create a substantial structure referred to as stress fibers (SFs) at particular locations. We determined the interaction probabilities of AFs undergoing cellular tensional homeostasis, a fundamental property maintaining intracellular tension. We showed that the duration required for the creation of SFs is shortened by the increased amount of preexisting actin meshwork, while the disintegration occurs independently of the presence of actin meshwork, suggesting that the coexistence of tension-bearing and non-bearing elements allows cells to promptly transition to new states in accordance with transient environmental changes. The origin of this asymmetry between creation and disintegration, consistently observed in actual cells, is elucidated through a minimal model analysis by examining the intrinsic nature of mechano-signal transmission. Specifically, unlike the symmetric case involving biochemical communication, physical communication to sense environmental changes is facilitated via AFs under tension, while other free AFs dissociated from tension-bearing structures exhibit stochastic behavior. Thus, both the numerical and minimal models demonstrate the essence of intracellular percolation, in which macroscopic asymmetry observed at the cellular level emerges not from microscopic asymmetry in the interaction probabilities of individual molecules, but rather only as a consequence of the manner of the mechano-signal transmission. These results provide novel insights into the role of the mutual interplay between distinct subcellular structures with and without tension-bearing capability. Insight: Cells continuously remodel their internal elements or structural proteins in response to environmental changes. Despite the stochastic behavior of individual structural proteins, which lack awareness of the larger subcellular structures they are meant to create or disintegrate, this self-assembly process somehow occurs to enable adaptation to the environment. Here we demonstrated through percolation simulations and minimal model analyses that there is an asymmetry in the response between the creation and disintegration of subcellular structures, which can aid environmental adaptation. This asymmetry inherently arises from the nature of mechano-signal transmission through structural proteins, namely tension-mediated information exchange within cells, despite the stochastic behavior of individual proteins lacking asymmetric characters in themselves.

Advanced methods for gene network identification and noise decomposition from single-cell data.

Central to analyzing noisy gene expression systems is solving the Chemical Master Equation (CME), which characterizes the probability evolution of the reacting species' copy numbers. Solving CMEs for high-dimensional systems suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Here, we propose a computational method for improved scalability through a divide-and-conquer strategy that optimally decomposes the whole system into a leader system and several conditionally independent follower subsystems. The CME is solved by combining Monte Carlo estimation for the leader system with stochastic filtering procedures for the follower subsystems. We demonstrate this method with high-dimensional numerical examples and apply it to identify a yeast transcription system at the single-cell resolution, leveraging mRNA time-course experimental data. The identification results enable an accurate examination of the heterogeneity in rate parameters among isogenic cells. To validate this result, we develop a noise decomposition technique exploiting time-course data but requiring no supplementary components, e.g., dual-reporters.

The impact of underreported infections on vaccine effectiveness estimates derived from retrospective cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance data and vaccination registries are widely used to provide real-time vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates, which can be biased due to underreported (i.e. under-ascertained and under-notified) infections. Here, we investigate how the magnitude and direction of this source of bias in retrospective cohort studies vary under different circumstances, including different levels of underreporting, heterogeneities in underreporting across vaccinated and unvaccinated, and different levels of pathogen circulation. METHODS: We developed a stochastic individual-based model simulating the transmission dynamics of a respiratory virus and a large-scale vaccination campaign. Considering a baseline scenario with 22.5% yearly attack rate and 30% reporting ratio, we explored fourteen alternative scenarios, each modifying one or more baseline assumptions. Using synthetic individual-level surveillance data and vaccination registries produced by the model, we estimated the VE against documented infection taking as reference either unvaccinated or recently vaccinated individuals (within 14 days post-administration). Bias was quantified by comparing estimates to the known VE assumed in the model. RESULTS: VE estimates were accurate when assuming homogeneous reporting ratios, even at low levels (10%), and moderate attack rates (<50%). A substantial downward bias in the estimation arose with homogeneous reporting and attack rates exceeding 50%. Mild heterogeneities in reporting ratios between vaccinated and unvaccinated strongly biased VE estimates, downward if cases in vaccinated were more likely to be reported and upward otherwise, particularly when taking as reference unvaccinated individuals. CONCLUSIONS: In observational studies, high attack rates or differences in underreporting between vaccinated and unvaccinated may result in biased VE estimates. This study underscores the critical importance of monitoring data quality and understanding biases in observational studies, to more adequately inform public health decisions.

Stochastic characterization of navigation strategies in an automated variant of the Barnes maze.

Animals can use a repertoire of strategies to navigate in an environment, and it remains an intriguing question how these strategies are selected based on the nature and familiarity of environments. To investigate this question, we developed a fully automated variant of the Barnes maze, characterized by 24 vestibules distributed along the periphery of a circular arena, and monitored the trajectories of mice over 15 days as they learned to navigate towards a goal vestibule from a random start vestibule. We show that the patterns of vestibule visits can be reproduced by the combination of three stochastic processes reminiscent of random, serial, and spatial strategies. The processes randomly selected vestibules based on either uniform (random) or biased (serial and spatial) probability distributions. They closely matched experimental data across a range of statistical distributions characterizing the length, distribution, step size, direction, and stereotypy of vestibule sequences, revealing a shift from random to spatial and serial strategies over time, with a strategy switch occurring approximately every six vestibule visits. Our study provides a novel apparatus and analysis toolset for tracking the repertoire of navigation strategies and demonstrates that a set of stochastic processes can largely account for exploration patterns in the Barnes maze.

A stochastic vs deterministic perspective on the timing of cellular events.

Cells are the fundamental units of life, and like all life forms, they change over time. Changes in cell state are driven by molecular processes; of these many are initiated when molecule numbers reach and exceed specific thresholds, a characteristic that can be described as "digital cellular logic". Here we show how molecular and cellular noise profoundly influence the time to cross a critical threshold-the first-passage time-and map out scenarios in which stochastic dynamics result in shorter or longer average first-passage times compared to noise-less dynamics. We illustrate the dependence of the mean first-passage time on noise for a set of exemplar models of gene expression, auto-regulatory feedback control, and enzyme-mediated catalysis. Our theory provides intuitive insight into the origin of these effects and underscores two important insights: (i) deterministic predictions for cellular event timing can be highly inaccurate when molecule numbers are within the range known for many cells; (ii) molecular noise can significantly shift mean first-passage times, particularly within auto-regulatory genetic feedback circuits.

Dynamical phase transition in models that couple chromatin folding with histone modifications.

Genomic regions can acquire heritable epigenetic states through unique histone modifications, which lead to stable gene expression patterns without altering the underlying DNA sequence. However, the relationship between chromatin conformational dynamics and epigenetic stability is poorly understood. In this paper, we propose kinetic models to investigate the dynamic fluctuations of histone modifications and the spatial interactions between nucleosomes. Our model explicitly incorporates the influence of chemical modifications on the structural stability of chromatin and the contribution of chromatin contacts to the cooperative nature of chemical reactions. Through stochastic simulations and analytical theory, we have discovered distinct steady-state outcomes in different kinetic regimes, resembling a dynamical phase transition. Importantly, we have validated that the emergence of this transition, which occurs on biologically relevant timescales, is robust against variations in model design and parameters. Our findings suggest that the viscoelastic properties of chromatin and the timescale at which it transitions from a gel-like to a liquidlike state significantly impact dynamic processes that occur along the one-dimensional DNA sequence.

Synergistic and antagonistic effects of deterministic and stochastic cell-cell variations.

By diversifying, cells in a clonal population can together overcome the limits of individuals. Diversity in single-cell growth rates allows the population to survive environmental stresses, such as antibiotics, and grow faster than the undiversified population. These functional cell-cell variations can arise stochastically, from noise in biochemical reactions, or deterministically, by asymmetrically distributing damaged components. While each of the mechanisms is well understood, the effect of the combined mechanisms is unclear. To evaluate the contribution of the deterministic component we developed a mathematical model by mapping the growing population to the Ising model. To analyze the combined effects of stochastic and deterministic contributions we introduced the analytical results of the Ising-mapping into an Euler-Lotka framework. Model results, confirmed by simulations and experimental data, show that deterministic cell-cell variations increase near-linearly with stress. As a consequence, we predict that the gain in population doubling time from cell-cell variations is primarily stochastic at low stress but may cross over to deterministic at higher stresses. Furthermore, we find that while the deterministic component minimizes population damage, stochastic variations antagonize this effect. Together our results may help identifying stress-tolerant pathogenic cells and thus inspire novel antibiotic strategies.

Smoothing in linear multicompartment biological processes subject to stochastic input.

Many physical and biological systems rely on the progression of material through multiple independent stages. In viral replication, for example, virions enter a cell to undergo a complex process comprising several disparate stages before the eventual accumulation and release of replicated virions. While such systems may have some control over the internal dynamics that make up this progression, a challenge for many is to regulate behavior under what are often highly variable external environments acting as system inputs. In this work, we study a simple analog of this problem through a linear multicompartment model subject to a stochastic input in the form of a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, a type of Gaussian process. By expressing the system as a multidimensional Gaussian process, we derive several closed-form analytical results relating to the covariances and autocorrelations of the system, quantifying the smoothing effect discrete compartments afford multicompartment systems. Semianalytical results demonstrate that feedback and feedforward loops can enhance system robustness, and simulation results probe the intractable problem of the first passage time distribution, which has specific relevance to eventual cell lysis in the viral replication cycle. Finally, we demonstrate that the smoothing seen in the process is a consequence of the discreteness of the system, and does not manifest in systems with continuous transport. While we make progress through analysis of a simple linear problem, many of our insights are applicable more generally, and our work enables future analysis into multicompartment processes subject to stochastic inputs.

A comprehensive analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on Ebolavirus disease outbreak: Stochastic modeling approach.

Ebolavirus disease (EVD) outbreaks have intermittently occurred since the first documented case in the 1970s. Due to its transmission characteristics, large outbreaks have not been observed outside Africa. However, within the continent, significant outbreaks have been attributed to factors such as endemic diseases with similar symptoms and inadequate medical infrastructure, which complicate timely diagnosis. In this study, we employed a stochastic modeling approach to analyze the spread of EVD during the early stages of an outbreak, with an emphasis on inherent risks. We developed a model that considers healthcare workers and unreported cases, and assessed the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) using actual data. Our results indicate that the implementation of NPIs led to a decrease in the transmission rate and infectious period by 30% and 40% respectively, following the declaration of the outbreak. We also investigated the risks associated with delayed outbreak recognition. Our simulations suggest that, when accounting for NPIs and recognition delays, prompt detection could have resulted in a similar outbreak scale, with approximately 50% of the baseline NPIs effect. Finally, we discussed the potential effects of a vaccination strategy as a follow-up measure after the outbreak declaration. Our findings suggest that a vaccination strategy can reduce both the burden of NPIs and the scale of the outbreak.

Phase diagrams of bone remodeling using a 3D stochastic cellular automaton.

We propose a 3D stochastic cellular automaton model, governed by evolutionary game theory, to simulate bone remodeling dynamics. The model includes four voxel states: Formation, Quiescence, Resorption, and Environment. We simulate the Resorption and Formation processes on separate time scales to explore the parameter space and derive a phase diagram that illustrates the sensitivity of these processes to parameter changes. Combining these results, we simulate a full bone remodeling cycle. Furthermore, we show the importance of modeling small neighborhoods for studying local bone microenvironment controls. This model can guide experimental design and, in combination with other models, it could assist to further explore external impacts on bone remodeling. Consequently, this model contributes to an improved understanding of complex dynamics in bone remodeling dynamics and exploring alterations due to disease or drug treatment.

An SIS epidemic model with individual variation.

We study an extension of the stochastic SIS (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible) model in continuous time that accounts for variation amongst individuals. By examining its limiting behaviour as the population size grows we are able to exhibit conditions for the infection to become endemic.

Threshold dynamics of a switching diffusion SIR model with logistic growth and healthcare resources.

In this article, we have constructed a stochastic SIR model with healthcare resources and logistic growth, aiming to explore the effect of random environment and healthcare resources on disease transmission dynamics. We have showed that under mild extra conditions, there exists a critical parameter, i.e., the basic reproduction number $ R_0/ $, which completely determines the dynamics of disease: when $ R_0/ < 1 $, the disease is eradicated; while when $ R_0/ > 1 $, the disease is persistent. To validate our theoretical findings, we conducted some numerical simulations using actual parameter values of COVID-19. Both our theoretical and simulation results indicated that (1) the white noise can significantly affect the dynamics of a disease, and importantly, it can shift the stability of the disease-free equilibrium; (2) infectious disease resurgence may be caused by random switching of the environment; and (3) it is vital to maintain adequate healthcare resources to control the spread of disease.

Dimensional Dependence of Binding Kinetics.

In the context of protein-protein binding, the dissociation constant is used to describe the affinity between two proteins. For protein-protein interactions, most experimentally-measured dissociation constants are measured in solution and reported in units of volume concentration. However, many protein interactions take place on membranes. These interactions have dissociation constants with units of areal concentration, rather than volume concentration. Here, we present a novel, stochastic approach to understanding the dimensional dependence of binding kinetics. Using stochastic exit time calculations, in discrete and continuous space, we derive general reaction rates for protein-protein binding in one, two, and three dimensions and demonstrate that dimensionality greatly affects binding kinetics. Further, we present a formula to transform three-dimensional experimentally-measured dissociation constants to two-dimensional dissociation constants. This conversion can be used to mathematically model binding events that occur on membranes.

Low-frequency ERK and Akt activity dynamics are predictive of stochastic cell division events.

Understanding the dynamics of intracellular signaling pathways, such as ERK1/2 (ERK) and Akt1/2 (Akt), in the context of cell fate decisions is important for advancing our knowledge of cellular processes and diseases, particularly cancer. While previous studies have established associations between ERK and Akt activities and proliferative cell fate, the heterogeneity of single-cell responses adds complexity to this understanding. This study employed a data-driven approach to address this challenge, developing machine learning models trained on a dataset of growth factor-induced ERK and Akt activity time courses in single cells, to predict cell division events. The most predictive models were developed by applying discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) to extract low-frequency features from the time courses, followed by using Ensemble Integration, a data integration and predictive modeling framework. The results demonstrated that these models effectively predicted cell division events in MCF10A cells (F-measure=0.524, AUC=0.726). ERK dynamics were found to be more predictive than Akt, but the combination of both measurements further enhanced predictive performance. The ERK model`s performance also generalized to predicting division events in RPE cells, indicating the potential applicability of these models and our data-driven methodology for predicting cell division across different biological contexts. Interpretation of these models suggested that ERK dynamics throughout the cell cycle, rather than immediately after growth factor stimulation, were associated with the likelihood of cell division. Overall, this work contributes insights into the predictive power of intra-cellular signaling dynamics for cell fate decisions, and highlights the potential of machine learning approaches in unraveling complex cellular behaviors.