Connectedness and spillover effects of US climate policy uncertainty on energy stock, alternative energy stock, and carbon future.

Global warming is pressuring policymakers to change climate policies in shifting the global economy onto a net-zero pathway. While financial assets are responsive to policy changes and development, climate change policies are becoming increasingly unpredictable, making policy decision less certain. This study investigates connectedness and spillover effects of US climate policy uncertainty on energy stocks, alternative energy stocks, and carbon emissions futures. We analyzed spillover and connectedness before and after the Paris Agreement. We employed monthly frequency data from August 2005 to March 2021 and applied DY (2012) method and MGARCH approach. We found that world energy stocks and carbon emissions futures are connected to US climate policy uncertainty. Uncertainty in climate policy and world energy stocks act as information transmitters in return spillover, while global alternative energy and carbon market are shock receivers. On volatility spillover, climate policy uncertainty, energy stocks, and carbon emissions future are shocks transmitters, while alternative energy stocks are receivers. We observe increase in connectedness following the Paris Agreement suggesting strengthened global efforts in tackling climate change. DCC and ADCC estimations revealed spillover effects of climate policy on futures returns and volatilities of world energy stocks and carbon emissions futures and the shocks could be transmitted through to the energy sector. During period of uncertainty in US climate policy, carbon allowances can potentially serve as a safe haven for energy stocks and provide downside protection for alternative energy stocks, hence hedging against climate transition risks.

Does cyber tech spending matter for bank stability?

CyberTech has drawn academic attention in the aftermath of the global financial crisis (GFC) as banks were forced to embrace CyberTech more aggressively to cope with market competition after the crisis. Banks can improve their operational efficiency and quality of service by relying on CyberTech, but they become more vulnerable to cybersecurity. Thus, increasing investment in CyberTech becomes a strategic necessity for banks to combat cybersecurity hazards. The study investigates how disruptive digital transformation affects bank stability. In particular, it examines whether the law of diminishing marginal returns from overspending on CyberTech affects bank stability. Based on a global sample from 43 countries, we find that an increase in CyberTech spending above the threshold level adversely affects the stability of banks. The main reason behind the adverse effect of CyberTech spending on the stability of banks is that banks take more than the proportional risk for every dollar they spend on disruptive CyberTech after they cross a threshold level of spending. While results persist across sub-samples, our results indicate two important channels of technological regimes - a diminishing returns regime and an increasing returns regime. The diminishing returns regime improves bank stability through more aggressive spending on technology, and the increasing returns regime makes banks more unstable due to excess spending on disruptive CyberTech. The study has implications for cybersecurity and sustainable CyberTech spending for banks.