Virtual water flows under projected climate, land use and population change: the case of UK feed barley and meat.

The flow of water through food commodity trade has been rationalized in the virtual water concept. Estimates of future virtual water flows under climate, land use, and population changes could have instrumental value for policy and strategic trade decisions. This paper estimated the virtual water flows associated with feed barley and meat imports to the UK under projected climate, land use, and population changes from the 2030s to the 2050s. The results show that future virtual water inflows associated with barley imports to balance domestic deficits are larger than total volume of water used in domestic barley production in the UK. Mean virtual water associated with total UK barley production ranged from 206 to 350 million m3. This is much less than the mean total virtual water associated with barley imports (if total barley produced in the UK is used for feed), which ranged from 2.5 to 5.6 billion m3 in the 2030s to the 2050s for all land use and climate change scenarios. If domestic barley production is distributed to the different end uses, the total virtual water inflows associated with imports to balance domestic feed barley supply could be as high as 7.4 billion m3. Larger virtual water inflows (as high as 9.9 billion m3) were associated with feed barley equivalent meat imports. While the UK barley production would be entirely green, imports of either barley or meat would result in large blue water inflows to the UK. Virtual water inflows increased across the time slices for all emissions scenarios, indicating weak effectiveness of yield or productivity gains to moderate virtual water inflows. While increase in yield and land allocated to barley production should be adaptive targets, the UK needs to take policy and strategic actions to diversify trade partners and shift imports away from countries where blue water flows can exacerbate existing or potential water stresses.

Vitamin D treatment of peripheral blood mononuclear cells modulated immune activation and reduced susceptibility to HIV-1 infection of CD4+ T lymphocytes.

INTRODUCTION: Mucosal immune activation, in the context of sexual transmission of HIV-1 infection, is crucial, as the increased presence of activated T cells enhance susceptibility to infection. In this regard, it has been proposed that immunomodulatory compounds capable of modulating immune activation, such as Vitamin D (VitD) may reduce HIV-1 transmission and might be used as a safe and cost-effective strategy for prevention. Considering this, we examined the in vitro effect of the treatment of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) with the active form of VitD, calcitriol, on cellular activation, function and susceptibility of CD4+ T cells to HIV-1 infection. METHODS: We treated PBMCs from healthy HIV unexposed individuals (Co-HC) and frequently exposed, HIV-1 seronegative individuals (HESNs) from Colombia and from healthy non-exposed individuals from Canada (Ca-HC) with calcitriol and performed in vitro HIV-1 infection assays using X4- and R5-tropic HIV-1 strains respectively. In addition, we evaluated the activation and function of T cells and the expression of viral co-receptors, and select antiviral genes following calcitriol treatment. RESULTS: Calcitriol reduced the frequency of infected CD4+ T cells and the number of viral particles per cell, for both, X4- and R5-tropic viruses tested in the Co-HC and the Ca-HC, respectively, but not in HESNs. Furthermore, in the Co-HC, calcitriol reduced the frequency of polyclonally activated T cells expressing the activation markers HLA-DR and CD38, and those HLA-DR+CD38-, whereas increased the subpopulation HLA-DR-CD38+. Calcitriol treatment also decreased production of granzyme, IL-2 and MIP-1ß by T cells and increased the transcriptional expression of the inhibitor of NF-kB and the antiviral genes cathelicidin (CAMP) and APOBEC3G in PBMCs from Co-HC. CONCLUSION: Our in vitro findings suggest that VitD treatment could reduce HIV-1 transmission through a specific modulation of the activation levels and function of T cells, and the production of antiviral factors. In conclusion, VitD remains as an interesting potential strategy to prevent HIV-1 transmission that should be further explored.