Modelling the impact of HIV prevention and treatment for men who have sex with men on HIV epidemic trajectories in low- and middle-income countries.

Little is known about the impact of combination HIV prevention interventions for men who have sex with men (MSM) and the impacts on the wider epidemics. Modelling analyses of MSM-specific interventions across varied HIV epidemics may inform evidence-based responses. The Goals model was adapted to project the impacts of providing HIV interventions for MSM and access to expanded coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for adults to measure the effects on the MSM and adult epidemics in Peru, Ukraine, Kenya and Thailand. Positive impacts were observed in all four countries. Across epidemics, 14-25% of infections among MSM may be averted between 2012 and 2016 when MSM interventions are brought to scale and MSM have equal access to expanded ART for adults. Among adults, MSM interventions may avert up to 4000 new infections, in addition to the benefits associated with increased ART. Greatest impacts from expanded interventions were observed in countries where same sex transmission contributes significantly to the HIV epidemic. While significant benefits are observed among the adult and MSM populations with expansion of ART, consideration should be given to the synergies of combining ART expansion with targeted interventions to reach hidden, high-risk populations for HIV testing and counselling and linkages to care.

Comparison of methods to detect recent HIV type 1 infection in cross-sectionally collected specimens from a cohort of female sex workers in the Dominican Republic.

Interest in estimating HIV-1 incidence using specimens obtained as part of cross-sectional surveys has led to the development of new methods to detect recent HIV-1 infection through the testing of a single anti-HIV-positive specimen. These assays are based on quantitative and qualitative differences in anti-HIV-1 antibodies between recent and long-standing infections. An ongoing vaccine preparedness study enrolled female sex workers in the Dominican Republic. Specimens from women found to be HIV positive at baseline were tested for recent HIV-1 infection using the detuned assay, avidity index, and BED-CEIA assay. An unweighted kappa statistic in pairwise comparisons was used to estimate the correlation of recent HIV-1 infection detection by the three methods. Nineteen (3.9%) of 482 women were positive for HIV-1 infection. The incidence of HIV infection was 1.4% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.2, 5.3], 0.9%(95% CI: 0.1, 4.4), and 1.0%(95% CI: 0.1, 4.4) using detuned assay, avidity index, and BED-CEIA techniques, respectively. The overall agreement between both detuned assay and avidity index and detuned assay and BED-CEIA was 94%(kappa = 0.8, 95% CI; 0.3, 1.0). The correlation was highest between BED-CEIA and avidity index methods (100%; kappa = 1.0). All three methods performed similarly in detecting recent HIV-1 infection in this region dominated by clade B HIV-1 infection. Although incidence estimates were slightly higher using the detuned assay method, they were not significantly different. These assays may be of value in both clinical research and practice. The utility of individual assays for recent infection detection will depend upon operating characteristics, HIV-1 subtype limitations, and selection of appropriate assay cutoff values.