Spatialization and Prediction of Seasonal NO2 Pollution Due to Climate Change in the Korean Capital Area through Land Use Regression Modeling.

Urbanization is causing an increase in air pollution leading to serious health issues. However, even though the necessity of its regulation is acknowledged, there are relatively few monitoring sites in the capital metropolitan city of the Republic of Korea. Furthermore, a significant relationship between air pollution and climate variables is expected, thus the prediction of air pollution under climate change should be carefully attended. This study aims to predict and spatialize present and future NO2 distribution by using existing monitoring sites to overcome deficiency in monitoring. Prediction was conducted through seasonal Land use regression modeling using variables correlated with NO2 concentration. Variables were selected through two correlation analyses and future pollution was predicted under HadGEM-AO RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. Our results showed a relatively high NO2 concentration in winter in both present and future predictions, resulting from elevated use of fossil fuels in boilers, and also showed increments of NO2 pollution due to climate change. The results of this study could strengthen existing air pollution management strategies and mitigation measures for planning concerning future climate change, supporting proper management and control of air pollution.

Forest management can mitigate negative impacts of climate and land-use change on plant biodiversity: Insights from the Republic of Korea.

Over the past century, the decline in biodiversity due to climate change and habitat loss has become unprecedentedly serious. Multiple drivers, including climate change, land-use/cover change, and qualitative change in habitat need to be considered in an integrated approach, which has rarely been taken, to create an effective conservation strategy. The purpose of this study is to quantitatively evaluate and map the combined impacts of those multiple drivers on biodiversity in the Republic of Korea (ROK). To this end, biodiversity persistence (BP) was simulated by employing generalized dissimilarity modeling with estimates of habitat conditions. Habitat Condition Index was newly developed based on national survey datasets to represent the changes in habitat quality according to the land cover changes and forest management, especially after the ROK's National Reforestation Programme. The changes in habitat conditions were simulated for a period ranging from the 1960s to the 2010s; additionally, future (2050s) spatial scenarios were constructed. By focusing on the changes in forest habitat quality along with climate and land use, this study quantitatively and spatially analyzed the changes in BP over time and presented the effects of reforestation and forest management. The results revealed that continuous forest management had a positive impact on BP by offsetting the negative effects of past urbanization. Improvements in forest habitat quality also can effectively reduce the negative impacts of climate change. This quantitative analysis of successful forest restoration in Korea proved that economic development and urbanization could be in parallel with biodiversity enhancement. Nevertheless, current forest management practices were found to be insufficient in fully offsetting the decline in future BP caused by climate change. This indicates that there is a need for additional measures along with mitigation of climate change to maintain the current biodiversity level.

Understanding global PM2.5 concentrations and their drivers in recent decades (1998-2016).

The threat of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is increasing globally. Tackling this issue requires an accurate understanding of its trends and drivers. In this study, global risk regions of PM2.5 concentrations during 1998-2016 were spatiotemporally derived. Time series analysis was conducted in the spatial relationship between PM2.5 and three socio-environmental drivers: population, urban ratio, and vegetation greenness that can cause changes in the concentration of PM2.5. "High Risk" areas were widely distributed in India and China. In India and sub-Saharan Africa, the increased overall population was strongly correlated with PM2.5 concentrations. Urban ratio increased in both developed and developing countries. A "decoupling" phenomenon occurred in developed countries, where urban expansion continued while PM2.5 concentrations decreased. Vegetation greenness and PM2.5 were strongly correlated in High Risk zones. Although urban expansion and population growth generally reduce vegetation greenness, developed countries reduced PM2.5 while maintaining greenness, whereas developing countries increased PM2.5 with decreasing greenness significantly in High Risk regions. Ultimately, economic and national growth should occur without increasing PM2.5 concentrations. Recent cases from Europe and the eastern United States demonstrate that this is possible, depending on the development pathway.

Decoupling of forest water supply and agricultural water demand attributable to deforestation in North Korea.

This study focused on changes in water balance attributable to severe deforestation in North Korea. The forest water supply and agricultural water demand of North Korea were quantified to identify their decoupling over the past three decades. Forest water supply and agricultural water demand before and after deforestation were estimated using the InVEST-WY (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs - Water Yield) and EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) models, respectively. Analysis of land cover change before and after deforestation showed that area under forests decreased by 25%, whereas that under cropland increased by 63%, and that the conversion from forest to cropland was the largest for the study period. As a result, agricultural water demand increased and forest water supply decreased, significantly. Analysis of the net impact of deforestation on water budgets using recent climate and two land covers showed that forest water supply decreased by 43% and agricultural water demand increased by 62%. An assessment of the water balance at the watershed level showed that the Taedong, Ryesong, and Tumen Rivers suffered the largest negative change in terms of the large gross impact of deforestation on water resources. The water balance of the entire North Korea has declined by 51% and this is attributable to deforestation. In contrast, South Korea has experienced success in national-scale afforestation in recent decades, and North Korea can emulate this. The restoration of forests in North Korea promises more than environmental benefits; it will provide a new growth engine for the prosperity of the Korean Peninsula as a whole.