The yield of tuberculosis contact investigation on relapsed TB patients and analysis of associated risk factors: Singapore's experience.

The yield of contact investigation on relapsed tuberculosis (TB) cases can guide strategies and resource allocation in the TB control programme. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to review the yield of contact investigation in relapsed TB cases and identify factors associated with TB infection (TBI) among close contacts of relapsed TB cases notified between 2018 and 2022 in Singapore. TB infection positivity was higher among contacts of relapsed cases which were culture-positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex compared to those who were only polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive (14.8% vs. 12.3%). On multivariate analysis, after adjusting for age and gender of the index, gender, and existing comorbidities of contacts, factors independently associated with TBI were culture and smear positivity of the index (AOR 1.41, 95%CI 1.02-1.94), higher odds with every 10 years of increase in age compared to contacts below aged 30, contacts who were not Singapore residents (AOR 2.09, 95%CI 1.46-2.97), and household contacts (AOR 2.19, 95%CI 1.44-3.34). Although the yield of screening was higher for those who were culture-positive compared to only PCR-positive relapsed cases, contact tracing for only PCR-positive cases may still be important in a country with moderate TB incidence, should resources allow.

An epidemiological assessment towards elimination of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome in Singapore.

OBJECTIVE: In line with regional and global goals for the elimination of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), we reviewed the epidemiological situation in Singapore, based on surveillance reports on rubella and CRS, national immunization coverage and seroprevalence surveys. The aim of our review was to identify current gaps and steps taken to achieve the targets set by the World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific Regional Office (WPRO). METHODS: Epidemiological data on clinical and laboratory-confirmed rubella cases, including CRS, notified to the Communicable Diseases Division, Ministry of Health, Singapore, from 2003 to 2013 were collated and analyzed. Vaccination coverage against rubella was obtained from the National Immunization Registry and School Health Services of the Health Promotion Board. The changing prevalence of rubella was determined from periodic serological surveys. FINDINGS: The incidence of indigenous rubella cases per million population decreased from 37.2 in 2008 to 7.6 in 2013 and there had been no indigenous case of CRS in 2012 and 2013. Therapeutic abortions performed due to rubella infections had become uncommon. The annual measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage in childhood population remained high ranging from 93% to 96%. The overall susceptibility to rubella in women aged 18-44 years had reduced significantly from 15.8% in 2004 to 11.0% in 2010. The prevalence of IgG antibody against rubella among Singapore children aged 1-17 years was maintained at 87.3% in 2008-2010. CONCLUSION: All available data indicated that Singapore has made good progress towards the elimination of rubella and CRS. It has attained the targets set by the WHO WPRO for 2015. In preparation for verification of rubella elimination, an enhanced surveillance system has been implemented to ensure that all reported cases are laboratory confirmed, and genotyping of rubella virus strains isolated is carried out to provide evidence for interruption of endemic transmission.

Progress towards measles elimination in Singapore.

OBJECTIVE: We describe the epidemiological trends of measles in Singapore in relation to its progress towards measles elimination and identify gaps in fulfilling the World Health Organization Western Pacific Regional Office regional measles elimination criteria. METHODS: Epidemiological data on measles maintained by the Communicable Diseases Division, Ministry of Health from 1981 to 2012 were collated and analysed. Data on measles vaccination coverage were obtained from the National Immunization Registry and School Health Services, Health Promotion Board. To assess the seroprevalence of the population, the findings of periodic seroepidemiological surveys on measles were traced and reviewed. FINDINGS: With the successful implementation of the National Childhood Immunization Programme using the monovalent measles vaccine, measles incidence declined from 88.5 cases per 100,000 in 1984 to 6.9 per 100,000 in 1991. Resurgences were observed in 1992, 1993 and 1997. A 'catch-up' vaccination programme using the trivalent measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine was conducted in 1997, followed by introduction of the two-dose vaccination schedule in January 1998. Measles incidence subsequently declined sharply to 2.9 per 100,000 in 1998. Vaccination coverage was maintained at 95% for the first dose and 92-94% for the second dose. Seroprevalence surveys showed seropositivity for measles IgG antibodies in over 95% of adults in 2004, and in 83.1% of children aged 1-17 years in 2008-2010. Sporadic cases with occasional clusters of two or more cases continued to occur among the unvaccinated population, especially children aged below 4 years. The predominant measles virus genotype has shifted from D9 to the B3 and G3 genotypes, which are endemic in neighbouring countries. CONCLUSION: Singapore has made good progress towards the elimination of endemic measles. To further eliminate sporadic cases of measles, the national immunisation schedule has recently been amended to vaccinate children with 2 doses of MMR vaccine before 2 years of age.

Teacher led school-based surveillance can allow accurate tracking of emerging infectious diseases - evidence from serial cross-sectional surveys of febrile respiratory illness during the H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Schools are important foci of influenza transmission and potential targets for surveillance and interventions. We compared several school-based influenza monitoring systems with clinic-based influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance, and assessed the variation in illness rates between and within schools. METHODS: During the initial wave of pandemic H1N1 (pdmH1N1) infections from June to Sept 2009 in Singapore, we collected data on nation-wide laboratory confirmed cases (Sch-LCC) and daily temperature monitoring (Sch-DTM), and teacher-led febrile respiratory illness reporting in 6 sentinel schools (Sch-FRI). Comparisons were made against age-stratified clinic-based influenza-like illness (ILI) data from 23 primary care clinics (GP-ILI) and proportions of ILI testing positive for pdmH1N1 (Lab-ILI) by computing the fraction of cumulative incidence occurring by epidemiological week 30 (when GP-ILI incidence peaked); and cumulative incidence rates between school-based indicators and sero-epidemiological pdmH1N1 incidence (estimated from changes in prevalence of A/California/7/2009 H1N1 hemagglutination inhibition titers ≥ 40 between pre-epidemic and post-epidemic sera). Variation in Sch-FRI rates in the 6 schools was also investigated through a Bayesian hierarchical model. RESULTS: By week 30, for primary and secondary school children respectively, 63% and 79% of incidence for Sch-LCC had occurred, compared with 50% and 52% for GP-ILI data, and 48% and 53% for Sch-FRI. There were 1,187 notified cases and 7,588 episodes in the Sch-LCC and Sch-DTM systems; given school enrollment of 485,723 children, this represented 0.24 cases and 1.6 episodes per 100 children respectively. Mean Sch-FRI rate was 28.8 per 100 children (95% CI: 27.7 to 29.9) in the 6 schools. We estimate from serology that 41.8% (95% CI: 30.2% to 55.9%) of primary and 43.2% (95% CI: 28.2% to 60.8%) of secondary school-aged children were infected. Sch-FRI rates were similar across the 6 schools (23 to 34 episodes per 100 children), but there was widespread variation by classrooms; in the hierarchical model, omitting age and school effects was inconsequential but neglecting classroom level effects led to highly significant reductions in goodness of fit. CONCLUSIONS: Epidemic curves from Sch-FRI were comparable to GP-ILI data, and Sch-FRI detected substantially more infections than Sch-LCC and Sch-DTM. Variability in classroom attack rates suggests localized class-room transmission.

Certification of poliomyelitis eradication in Singapore and the challenges ahead.

INTRODUCTION: This study reviewed the epidemiological trends of poliomyelitis from 1946 to 2010, and the impact of the national immunisation programme in raising the population herd immunity against poliovirus. We also traced the efforts Singapore has made to achieve certification of poliomyelitis eradication by the World Health Organisation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Epidemiological data on all reported cases of poliomyelitis were obtained from the Communicable Diseases Division of the Ministry of Health as well as historical records. Coverage of the childhood immunisation programme against poliomyelitis was based on the immunisation data maintained by the National Immunisation Registry, Health Promotion Board. To assess the herd immunity of the population against poliovirus, 6 serological surveys were conducted in 1962, 1978, 1982 to 1984, 1989, 1993 and from 2008 to 2010. RESULTS: Singapore was among the fi rst countries in the world to introduce live oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) on a mass scale in 1958. With the comprehensive coverage of the national childhood immunisation programme, the incidence of paralytic poliomyelitis declined from 74 cases in 1963 to 5 cases from 1971 to 1973. The immunisation coverage for infants, preschool and primary school children has been maintained at 92% to 97% over the past decade. No indigenous poliomyelitis case had been reported since 1978 and all cases reported subsequently were imported. CONCLUSION: Singapore was certified poliomyelitis free along with the rest of the Western Pacific Region in 2000 after fulfilling all criteria for poliomyelitis eradication, including the establishment of a robust acute flaccid paralysis surveillance system. However, post-certification challenges remain, with the risk of wild poliovirus importation. Furthermore, it is timely to consider the replacement of OPV with the inactivated poliovirus vaccine in Singapore's national immunisation programme given the risk of vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis and circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses.

Determinants of late-stage HIV disease at diagnosis in Singapore, 1996 to 2009.

INTRODUCTION: The delay in HIV diagnosis has been identified as a significant reason for late presentation to medical care. This research aims to elucidate the significant determinants of late-stage HIV infection in Singapore between 1996 and 2009, after the advent of highly active anti-retroviral therapies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We included 3735 patients infected via sexual mode of transmission from the National HIV Registry diagnosed between 1996 and 2009. Late-stage HIV infection is defined as CD4 count less than 200 mm(3) or AIDS-defining opportunistic infections at fi rst diagnosis or within one year of HIV diagnosis. We determined independent epidemiological risk factors for late-stage HIV infection at first diagnosis using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis showed that older age corresponded significantly with increasing odds of late-stage HIV infection. Compared to persons diagnosed at 15 to 24 years of age, those diagnosed at age 55 years and above were associated with 5-fold increased likelihood of late-stage infection (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 5.17; 95% CI, 3.21 to 8.33). Chinese ethnicity, singlehood, and non-professional occupations were also significantly associated with late-stage HIV infection. Persons detected in the course of medical care had over 3.5 times the odds of late-stage infection (AOR: 3.55; 95% CI, 2.71 to 4.65). Heterosexual mode of transmission and having sex workers and social escorts as sexual partners, were the other epidemiological risk factors with significant associations. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study emphasises the need to increase HIV awareness and to encourage early and regular HIV testing among at-risk persons.

Outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009) in Singapore, May to September 2009.

INTRODUCTION: The fi rst case of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) was detected in Singapore on 26 May 2009, 1 month after the fi rst cases of novel influenza A(H1N1) was reported in California and Texas in the United States. The World Health Organization declared the fi rst influenza pandemic of the 21st century on 11 June 2009. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Confirmed cases notified to the Ministry of Health between 27 May and 9 July 2009 were analysed. Various indicators of influenza activity were monitored throughout the study period. Estimates of the number of cases of H1N1-2009 were made using the number of polyclinic attendances for acute respiratory infection and influenza-like illness and the weekly prevalence of H1N1-2009. RESULTS: Cases in Singapore affected mainly young adults, youths and children. By the end of September 2009, it was estimated that at least 270,000 persons had been infected by pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Singapore. The peak number of cases occurred during E-week 30 (26 July-1 August) when an estimated 45,000 cases were seen in polyclinics and GP clinics. The hospitalisation, severe illness and mortality rates were estimated at 6 per 1000 cases, 0.3 per 1000 cases and 6.7 per 100,000 cases, respectively. The most common risk factors among hospitalised adult cases were asthma and diabetes. For hospitalised children, the most common risk factors were being under 5 years of age and asthma. The most common risk factors among persons with severe illness were diabetes in adults and epilepsy and being under 5 years of age in children. About half of cases with severe illness required mechanical ventilation. In addition, one-fifth of cases with severe illness had acute respiratory distress syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: The fi rst wave of the influenza pandemic lasted about 10 weeks. Morbidity and mortality resulting from pandemic influenza were low.

An epidemiological study of 1348 cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza admitted to Singapore Hospitals from July to September 2009.

INTRODUCTION: We reviewed the epidemiological features of 1348 hospitalised cases of influenza A (H1N1-2009) [pandemic H1N1] infection in Singapore reported between 15 July and 28 September 2009. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data on the demographic and epidemiological characteristics of hospitalised patients with confirmed pandemic H1N1 infection were collected from all restructured and private hospitals in Singapore using a standard template and were analysed retrospectively. RESULTS: Of the 1348 cases, 92 were classified as severely ill (i.e. were admitted to an intensive care unit and/or who died). Of these severely ill cases, 50 (54.3%) required mechanical ventilation. While overall hospitalisation rates were highest in the 0 to 11 months age group, the incidence of severely ill cases was highest in patients aged 65 years and older. Fifty per cent of all hospitalised cases and 28% of all severely ill cases did not have any underlying medical conditions. The following factors were found to be independently associated with a higher likelihood of severe illness: older age and the presence of the following comorbidities: neuromuscular disorders, epilepsy and obesity. CONCLUSION: Between 15 July and 28 September 2009, pandemic H1N1 infection caused significant illness requiring hospitalisation, as well as intensive care and mechanical ventilation in some cases. There were 18 deaths from pandemic H1N1 during this period, which corresponded to a case-fatality rate of 7 deaths for every 100,000 cases of pandemic H1N1.

Influenza A (H1N1-2009) pandemic in Singapore--public health control measures implemented and lessons learnt.

We describe the public health control measures implemented in Singapore to limit the spread of influenza A (H1N1-2009) and mitigate its social effects. We also discuss the key learning points from this experience. Singapore's public health control measures were broadly divided into 2 phases: containment and mitigation. Containment strategies included the triage of febrile patients at frontline healthcare settings, admission and isolation of confirmed cases, mandatory Quarantine Orders (QO) for close contacts, and temperature screening at border entry points. After sustained community transmission became established, containment shifted to mitigation. Hospitals only admitted H1N1-2009 cases based on clinical indications, not for isolation. Mild cases were managed in the community. Contact tracing and QOs tapered off, and border temperature screening ended. The 5 key lessons learnt were: (1) Be prepared, but retain flexibility in implementing control measures; (2) Surveillance, good scientific information and operational research can increase a system's ability to manage risk during a public health crisis; (3) Integrated systems-level responses are essential for a coherent public health response; (4) Effective handling of manpower surges requires creative strategies; and (5) Communication must be strategic, timely, concise and clear. Singapore's effective response to the H1N1-2009 pandemic, founded on experience in managing the 2003 SARS epidemic, was a whole-of-government approach towards pandemic preparedness planning. Documenting the measures taken and lessons learnt provides a learning opportunity for both doctors and policy makers, and can help fortify Singapore's ability to respond to future major disease outbreaks.

International health regulations: lessons from the influenza pandemic in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: Singapore's defense against imported novel influenza A (H1N1-2009) comprised public health measures in compliance with the World Health Organization's (WHO) International Health Regulations (IHR), 2005. We report herein on the epidemiology and control of the fi rst 350 cases notified between May and June 2009. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We investigated the fi rst 350 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel influenza A (H1N1-2009) identified from the healthcare institutions between 27 May and 25 June 2009. Epidemiological details of these cases were retrieved and analysed. Contact tracing and active case finding were also instituted for each reported case, and relevant particulars including flight information were provided to WHO and overseas counterparts. RESULTS: The fi rst 350 novel influenza A (H1N1-2009) cases comprised 221(63%) imported cases, 124 (35%) locally acquired cases and 5 (2%) cases with unknown source. The imported cases consisted of three waves involving the United States (US), Australia and Southeast Asia. In the fi rst wave, 11 (69%) of the 16 imported cases had visited the US within seven days prior to their onset of illness between 25 May and 4 June 2009. In the second wave, 20 (74%) of the 27 imported cases between 5 June and 12 June had travelled to Melbourne, Australia. In the third wave, 90 (51%) of the 178 imported cases between 13 June and 25 June were acquired from intra-regional travel in Southeast Asia. Specifically, 49 cases were from the Philippines and 40 (82%) of them had travelled to Manila. A total of 667 communications were effected through the IHR mechanism; a majority within 24 hours of disease notification. CONCLUSION: Singapore experienced an unprecedented need for international cooperation in surveillance and response to this novel Influenza A (H1N1-2009) pandemic. The IHR mechanism served as a useful channel to engage in regional cooperation concerning disease surveillance and data sharing, but requires improvement.

HIV in Singapore--past, present, and future.

The first case of HIV infection in Singapore was reported in 1985. Between 1991 and 1998, the number of reported cases of HIV and AIDS increased rapidly before stabilizing from 1999. The epidemiology of the AIDS epidemic in Singapore is characterized by a predominance of male cases (seven to one) and heterosexual transmission. A multipronged control program comprising public education and education of high-risk groups, legislation, protection of the national blood supply, management of cases, and epidemiological surveillance has been put in place. The promotion of condom use among local sex workers has been fairly successful, with very low rates of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). However, freelance and potential indirect sex workers such as masseuses and lounge hostesses are a concern in view of their higher prevalence of HIV and STIs. Another concern is the high proportion of cases who are diagnosed only when they develop AIDS. A better understanding of sexual networks among men who have sex with men will enable more effective intervention programs for this group. Fresh innovative approaches are needed to encourage safe sex practices and early screening.