Ten-Year Risk Equations for Incident Heart Failure in Established Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Populations.

BACKGROUND: Ten-year risk equations for incident heart failure (HF) are available for the general population, but not for patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), which is highly prevalent in HF cohorts. This study aimed to develop and validate 10-year risk equations for incident HF in patients with known ASCVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ten-year risk equations for incident HF were developed using the United Kingdom Biobank cohort (recruitment 2006-2010) including participants with established ASCVD but free from HF at baseline. Model performance was validated using the Australian Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute Biobank cohort (recruitment 2000-2011) and compared with the performance of general population risk models. Incident HF occurred in 13.7% of the development cohort (n=31 446, median 63 years, 35% women, follow-up 10.7±2.7 years) and in 21.3% of the validation cohort (n=1659, median age 65 years, 25% women, follow-up 9.4±3.7 years). Predictors of HF included in the sex-specific models were age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure (treated or untreated), glucose (treated or untreated), cholesterol, smoking status, QRS duration, kidney disease, myocardial infarction, and atrial fibrillation. ASCVD-HF equations had good discrimination and calibration in development and validation cohorts, with superior performance to general population risk equations. CONCLUSIONS: ASCVD-specific 10-year risk equations for HF outperform general population risk models in individuals with established ASCVD. The ASCVD-HF equations can be calculated from readily available clinical data and could facilitate screening and preventative treatment decisions in this high-risk group.

Healthcare and economic cost burden of emergency medical services treated non-traumatic shock using a population-based cohort in Victoria, Australia.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the healthcare costs and impact on the economy at large arising from emergency medical services (EMS) treated non-traumatic shock. DESIGN: We conducted a population-based cohort study, where EMS-treated patients were individually linked to hospital-wide and state-wide administrative datasets. Direct healthcare costs (Australian dollars, AUD) were estimated for each element of care using a casemix funding method. The impact on productivity was assessed using a Markov state-transition model with a 3-year horizon. SETTING: Patients older than 18 years of age with shock not related to trauma who received care by EMS (1 January 2015-30 June 2019) in Victoria, Australia were included in the analysis. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome assessed was the total healthcare expenditure. Secondary outcomes included healthcare expenditure stratified by shock aetiology, years of life lived (YLL), productivity-adjusted life-years (PALYs) and productivity losses. RESULTS: A total of 21 334 patients (mean age 65.9 (±19.1) years, and 9641 (45.2%) females were treated by EMS with non-traumatic shock with an average healthcare-related cost of $A11 031 per episode of care and total cost of $A280 million. Annual costs remained stable throughout the study period, but average costs per episode of care increased (Ptrend=0.05). Among patients who survived to hospital, the average cost per episode of care was stratified by aetiology with cardiogenic shock costing $A24 382, $A21 254 for septic shock, $A19 915 for hypovolaemic shock and $A28 057 for obstructive shock. Modelling demonstrated that over a 3-year horizon the cohort lost 24 355 YLLs and 5059 PALYs. Lost human capital due to premature mortality led to productivity-related losses of $A374 million. When extrapolated to the entire Australian population, productivity losses approached $A1.5 billion ($A326 million annually). CONCLUSION: The direct healthcare costs and indirect loss of productivity among patients with non-traumatic shock are high. Targeted public health measures that seek to reduce the incidence of shock and improve systems of care are needed to reduce the financial burden of this syndrome.

No-Reflow Prediction in Acute Coronary Syndrome During Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: The NORPACS Risk Score.

BACKGROUND: Suboptimal coronary reperfusion (no reflow) is common in acute coronary syndrome percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and is associated with poor outcomes. We aimed to develop and externally validate a clinical risk score for angiographic no reflow for use following angiography and before PCI. METHODS: We developed and externally validated a logistic regression model for prediction of no reflow among adult patients undergoing PCI for acute coronary syndrome using data from the Melbourne Interventional Group PCI registry (2005-2020; development cohort) and the British Cardiovascular Interventional Society PCI registry (2006-2020; external validation cohort). RESULTS: A total of 30 561 patients (mean age, 64.1 years; 24% women) were included in the Melbourne Interventional Group development cohort and 440 256 patients (mean age, 64.9 years; 27% women) in the British Cardiovascular Interventional Society external validation cohort. The primary outcome (no reflow) occurred in 4.1% (1249 patients) and 9.4% (41 222 patients) of the development and validation cohorts, respectively. From 33 candidate predictor variables, 6 final variables were selected by an adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model for inclusion (cardiogenic shock, ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction with symptom onset >195 minutes pre-PCI, estimated stent length ≥20 mm, vessel diameter <2.5 mm, pre-PCI Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction flow <3, and lesion location). Model discrimination was very good (development C statistic, 0.808; validation C statistic, 0.741) with excellent calibration. Patients with a score of ≥8 points had a 22% and 27% risk of no reflow in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The no-reflow prediction in acute coronary syndrome risk score is a simple count-based scoring system based on 6 parameters available before PCI to predict the risk of no reflow. This score could be useful in guiding preventative treatment and future trials.

Impact of socioeconomic status on presentation, care quality and outcomes of patients attended by emergency medical services for dyspnoea: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Low socioeconomic status (SES) has been linked to poor outcomes in many conditions. It is unknown whether these disparities extend to individuals presenting with dyspnoea. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between SES and incidence, care quality and outcomes among patients attended by emergency medical services (EMS) for dyspnoea. METHODS: This population-based cohort study included consecutive patients attended by EMS for dyspnoea between 1 January 2015 and 30 June 2019 in Victoria, Australia. Data were obtained from individually linked ambulance, hospital and mortality datasets. Patients were stratified into SES quintiles using a composite census-derived index. RESULTS: A total of 262 412 patients were included. There was a stepwise increase in the age-adjusted incidence of EMS attendance for dyspnoea with increasing socioeconomic disadvantage (lowest SES quintile 2269 versus highest quintile 889 per 100 000 person years, ptrend<0.001). Patients of lower SES were younger and more comorbid, more likely to be from regional Victoria or of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander heritage and had higher rates of respiratory distress. Despite this, lower SES groups were less frequently assigned a high acuity EMS transport or emergency department (ED) triage category and less frequently transported to tertiary centres or hospitals with intensive care unit facilities. In multivariable models, lower SES was independently associated with lower acuity EMS and ED triage, ED length of stay>4 hours and increased 30-day EMS reattendance and mortality. CONCLUSION: Lower SES was associated with a higher incidence of EMS attendances for dyspnoea and disparities in several metrics of care and clinical outcomes.

Association of socioeconomic status in the incidence, quality-of-care metrics, and outcomes for patients with cardiogenic shock in a pre-hospital setting.

AIMS: The relationship between lower socioeconomic status (SES) and poor cardiovascular outcomes is well described; however, there exists a paucity of data exploring this association in cardiogenic shock (CS). This study aimed to investigate whether any disparities exist between SES and the incidence, quality of care or outcomes of CS patients attended by emergency medical services (EMS). METHODS AND RESULTS: This population-based cohort study included consecutive patients transported by EMS with CS between 1 January 2015 and 30 June 2019 in Victoria, Australia. Data were collected from individually linked ambulance, hospital, and mortality datasets. Patients were stratified into SES quintiles using national census data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.A total of 2628 patients were attended by EMS for CS. The age-standardized incidence of CS amongst all patients was 11.8 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 11.4-12.3] per 100 000 person-years, with a stepwise increase from the highest to lowest SES quintile (lowest quintile 17.0 vs. highest quintile 9.7 per 100 000 person-years, P-trend < 0.001). Patients in lower SES quintiles were less likely to attend metropolitan hospitals and more likely to be received by inner regional and remote centres without revascularization capabilities. A greater proportion of the lower SES groups presented with CS due to non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) or unstable angina pectoris (UAP), and overall were less likely to undergo coronary angiography. Multivariable analysis demonstrated an increased 30-day all-cause mortality rate in the lowest three SES quintiles when compared with the highest quintile. CONCLUSION: This population-based study demonstrated discrepancies between SES status in the incidence, care metrics, and mortality rates of patients presenting to EMS with CS. These findings outline the challenges in equitable healthcare delivery within this cohort.

Chest pain epidemiology and care quality for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in Victoria, Australia: a population-based cohort study from 2015 to 2019.

Background: This study examined chest pain epidemiology and care quality for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander ('Indigenous') patients presenting to hospital via emergency medical services (EMS) with chest pain. Methods: State-wide population-based cohort study of consecutive patients attended by ambulance for acute chest pain with individual linkage to emergency, hospital admission and mortality data in the state of Victoria, Australia from January 2015 to June 2019. Multivariable models were used to assess for differences in pre-hospital and hospital adherence to care quality, process measures and clinical outcomes. Findings: From 204,969 EMS attendances for chest pain, 3890 attendances (1.9%) identified as Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander. Age-standardized incidence rates were higher overall for Indigenous people (3128 vs. 1147 per 100,000 person-years, incidence rate ratio 2.73, 95% CI 2.72-2.74), this difference being particularly striking for younger patients, women, and those residing in outer regional areas. In multivariable models, adherence to care quality and process measures was lower for attendances involving Indigenous people. In the pre-hospital setting, Indigenous people were less likely to be provided intravenous access or analgesia. In the hospital setting, Indigenous people were less likely to be seen by emergency clinicians within target time and less likely to transferred following myocardial infarction to a revascularization capable centre. Interpretation: Incidence of acute chest pain presentations is high among Indigenous people in Victoria, Australia. Opportunities to improve the quality of care for Indigenous Australians presenting with acute chest pain are identified. Funding: National Health and Medical Research Council, National Heart Foundation.

Differences in predictors of incident heart failure according to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease status.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) is a common cause of morbidity and mortality, related to a broad range of sociodemographic, lifestyle, cardiometabolic, and comorbidity risk factors, which may differ according to the presence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). We assessed the association between incident HF with baseline status across these domains, overall and separated according to ASCVD status. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 5758 participants from the Baker Biobank cohort without HF at baseline enrolled between January 2000 and December 2011. The primary endpoint was incident HF, defined as hospital admission or HF-related death, determined through linkage with state-wide administrative databases (median follow-up 12.2 years). Regression models were fitted adjusted for sociodemographic variables, alcohol intake, smoking status, measures of adiposity, cardiometabolic profile measures, and individual comorbidities. During 65 987 person-years (median age 59 years, 38% women), incident HF occurred among 784 participants (13.6%) overall. Rates of incident HF were higher among patients with ASCVD (624/1929, 32.4%) compared with those without ASCVD (160/3829, 4.2%). Incident HF was associated with age, socio-economic status, alcohol intake, smoking status, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C and HDL-C), with non-linear relationships observed for age, alcohol intake, BMI, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, SBP, LDL-C, and HDL-C. Risk factors for incident HF were largely consistent regardless of ASCVD status, although diabetes status had a greater association with incident HF among patients without ASCVD. CONCLUSIONS: Incident HF is associated with a broad range of baseline sociodemographic, lifestyle, cardiometabolic, and comorbidity factors, which are mostly consistent regardless of ASCVD status. These data could be useful in efforts towards developing risk prediction models that can be used in patients with ASCVD.

Early versus deferred coronary angiography following cardiac arrest. A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Aim: The role of early coronary angiography (CAG) in the evaluation of patients presenting with out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and no ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STE) pattern on electrocardiogram (ECG) has been subject to considerable debate. We sought to assess the impact of early versus deferred CAG on mortality and neurological outcomes in patients with OHCA and no STE. Methods: OVID MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and Cochrane Library Register were searched according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines from inception until July 18, 2022. Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of patients with OHCA without STE that compared early CAG with deferred CAG were included. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Secondary endpoints included mortality at discharge or 30-days, favourable neurology at 30-days, major bleeding, renal failure and recurrent cardiac arrest. Results: Of the 7,998 citations, 5 RCTs randomizing 1524 patients were included. Meta-analysis showed no difference in 30-day mortality with early versus deferred CAG (OR 1.17, CI 0.91 - 1.49, I2 = 27%). There was no difference in favourable neurological outcome at 30 days (OR 0.88, CI 0.52 - 1.49, I2 = 63%), major bleeding (OR 0.94, CI 0.33 - 2.68, I2 = 39%), renal failure (OR 1.14, CI 0.77 - 1.69, I2 = 0%), and recurrent cardiac arrest (OR 1.39, CI 0.79 - 2.43, I2 = 0%). Conclusions: Early CAG was not associated with improved survival and neurological outcomes among patients with OHCA without STE. This meta-analysis does not support routinely performing early CAG in this select patient cohort.

Use of a novel smartphone-based application tool for enrolment and randomisation in pre-hospital clinical trials.

The effective recruitment and randomisation of patients in pre-hospital clinical trials presents unique challenges. Owing to the time critical nature of many pre-hospital emergencies and limited resourcing, the use of traditional methods of randomisation that may include centralised telephone or web-based systems are often not practicable or feasible. Previous technological limitations have necessitated that pre-hospital trialists strike a compromise between implementing pragmatic, deliverable study designs, with robust enrolment and randomisation methodologies. In this commentary piece, we present a novel smartphone-based solution that has the potential to align pre-hospital clinical trial recruitment processes to that of best-in-practice in-hospital and ambulatory care based studies.

Variation in Health Care Processes, Quality and Outcomes According to Day and Time of Chest Pain Presentation via Ambulance.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies examining temporal variations in cardiovascular care have largely been limited to assessing weekend and after-hours effects. We aimed to determine whether more complex temporal variation patterns might exist in chest pain care. METHODS: This was a population-based study of consecutive adult patients attended by emergency medical services (EMS) for non-traumatic chest pain without ST elevation in Victoria, Australia between 1 January 2015 and 30 June 2019. Multivariable models were used to assess whether time of day and week stratified into 168 hourly time periods was associated with care processes and outcomes. RESULTS: There were 196,365 EMS chest pain attendances; mean age 62.4 years (standard deviation [SD] 18.3) and 51% females. Presentations demonstrated a diurnal pattern, a Monday-Sunday gradient (Monday peak) and a reverse weekend effect (lower rates on weekends). Five temporal patterns were observed for care quality and process measures, including a diurnal pattern (longer emergency department [ED] length of stay), an after-hours pattern (lower angiography or transfer for myocardial infarction, pre-hospital aspirin administration), a weekend effect (shorter ED clinician review, shorter EMS off-load time), an afternoon/evening peak period pattern (longer ED clinician review, longer EMS off-load time) and a Monday-Sunday gradient (ED clinician review, EMS offload time). Risk of 30-day mortality was associated with weekend presentation (Odds ratio [OR] 1.15, p=0.001) and morning presentation (OR 1.17, p<0.001) while risk of 30-day EMS reattendance was associated with peak period (OR 1.16, p<0.001) and weekend presentation (OR 1.07, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Chest pain care demonstrates complex temporal variation beyond the already established weekend and after-hours effect. Such relationships should be considered during resource allocation and quality improvement programs to improve care across all days and times of the week.

Sex Differences in Epidemiology, Care, and Outcomes in Patients With Acute Chest Pain.

BACKGROUND: Discrepancies in cardiovascular care for women are well described, but few data assess the entire patient journey for chest pain care. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess sex differences in epidemiology and care pathways from emergency medical services (EMS) contact through to clinical outcomes following discharge. METHODS: This is a state-wide population-based cohort study including consecutive adult patients attended by EMS for acute undifferentiated chest pain in Victoria, Australia (January 1, 2015, to June 30, 2019). EMS clinical data were individually linked to emergency and hospital administrative datasets, and mortality data and differences in care quality and outcomes were assessed using multivariable analyses. RESULTS: In 256,901 EMS attendances for chest pain, 129,096 attendances (50.3%) were women, and mean age was 61.6 years. Age-standardized incidence rates were marginally higher for women compared with men (1,191 vs 1,135 per 100,000 person-years). In multivariable models, women were less likely to receive guideline-directed care across most care measures including transport to hospital, prehospital aspirin or analgesia administration, 12-lead electrocardiogram, intravenous cannula insertion, and off-load from EMS or review by emergency department clinicians within target times. Similarly, women with acute coronary syndrome were less likely to undergo angiography or be admitted to a cardiac or intensive care unit. Thirty-day and long-term mortality was higher for women diagnosed with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, but lower overall. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial differences in care are present across the spectrum of acute chest pain management from first contact through to hospital discharge. Women have higher mortality for STEMI, but better outcomes for other etiologies of chest pain compared with men.

Healthcare cost burden of acute chest pain presentations.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to estimate the direct healthcare cost burden of acute chest pain attendances presenting to ambulance in Victoria, Australia, and to identify key cost drivers especially among low-risk patients. METHODS: State-wide population-based cohort study of consecutive adult patients attended by ambulance for acute chest pain with individual linkage to emergency and hospital admission data in Victoria, Australia (1 January 2015-30 June 2019). Direct healthcare costs, adjusted for inflation to 2020-2021 ($A), were estimated for each component of care using a casemix funding method. RESULTS: From 241 627 ambulance attendances for chest pain during the study period, mean chest pain episode cost was $6284, and total annual costs were estimated at $337.4 million ($68 per capita per annum). Total annual costs increased across the period ($310.5 million in 2015 vs $384.5 million in 2019), while mean episode costs remained stable. Cardiovascular conditions (25% of presentations) were the most expensive (mean $11 523, total annual $148.7 million), while a non-specific pain diagnosis (49% of presentations) was the least expensive (mean $3836, total annual $93.4 million). Patients classified as being at low risk of myocardial infarction, mortality or hospital admission (Early Chest pain Admission, Myocardial infarction, and Mortality (ECAMM) score) represented 31%-57% of the cohort, with total annual costs estimated at $60.6 million-$135.4 million, depending on the score cut-off used. CONCLUSIONS: Total annual costs for acute chest pain presentations are increasing, and a significant proportion of the cost burden relates to low-risk patients and non-specific pain. These data highlight the need to improve the cost-efficiency of chest pain care pathways.

Age as a predictor of clinical outcomes and determinant of therapeutic measures for emergency medical services treated cardiogenic shock.

BACKGROUND: The impact of age on outcomes in cardiogenic shock (CS) is poorly described in the pre-hospital setting. We assessed the impact of age on outcomes of patients treated by emergency medical services (EMS). METHODS: This population-based cohort study included consecutive adult patients with CS transported to hospital by EMS. Successfully linked patients were stratified into tertiles by age (18-63, 64-77, and > 77 years). Predictors of 30-day mortality were assessed through regression analyses. The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A total of 3523 patients with CS were successfully linked to state health records. The average age was 68 ± 16 years and 1398 (40%) were female. Older patients were more likely to have comorbidities including pre-existing coronary artery disease, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, and cerebrovascular disease. The incidence of CS was significantly greater with increasing age (incidence rate per 100,000 person years 6.47 [95% CI: 6.1-6.8] in age 18-63 years, 34.34 [32.4-36.4] in age 64-77 years, 74.87 [70.6-79.3] in age > 77 years, P < 0.001). There was a step-wise increase in the rate of 30-day mortality with increasing age tertile. After adjustment, compared to the lowest age tertile, patients aged > 77 years had increased risk of 30-day mortality (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.26 [95% CI: 1.96-2.60]). Older patients were less likely to receive inpatient coronary angiography. CONCLUSION: Older patients with EMS-treated CS have significantly higher rates of short-term mortality. The reduced rates of invasive interventions in older patients underscore the need for further development of systems of care to improve outcomes for this patient group.

Chest Pain Management Using Prehospital Point-of-Care Troponin and Paramedic Risk Assessment.

Importance: Prehospital point-of-care troponin testing and paramedic risk stratification might improve the efficiency of chest pain care pathways compared with existing processes with equivalent health outcomes, but the association with health care costs is unclear. Objective: To analyze whether prehospital point-of-care troponin testing and paramedic risk stratification could result in cost savings compared with existing chest pain care pathways. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this economic evaluation of adults with acute chest pain without ST-segment elevation, cost-minimization analysis was used to assess linked ambulance, emergency, and hospital attendance in the state of Victoria, Australia, between January 1, 2015, and June 30, 2019. Interventions: Paramedic risk stratification and point-of-care troponin testing. Main Outcomes and Measures: The outcome was estimated mean annualized statewide costs for acute chest pain. Between May 17 and June 25, 2022, decision tree models were developed to estimate costs under 3 pathways: (1) existing care, (2) paramedic risk stratification and point-of-care troponin testing without prehospital discharge, or (3) prehospital discharge and referral to a virtual emergency department (ED) for low-risk patients. Probabilities for the prehospital pathways were derived from a review of the literature. Multivariable probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 50 000 Monte Carlo iterations was used to estimate mean costs and cost differences among pathways. Results: A total of 188 551 patients attended by ambulance for chest pain (mean [SD] age, 61.9 [18.3] years; 50.5% female; 49.5% male; Indigenous Australian, 2.0%) were included in the model. Estimated annualized infrastructure and staffing costs for the point-of-care troponin pathways, assuming a 5-year device life span, was $2.27 million for the pathway without prehospital discharge and $4.60 million for the pathway with prehospital discharge (incorporating virtual ED costs). In the decision tree model, total annual cost using prehospital point-of-care troponin and paramedic risk stratification was lower compared with existing care both without prehospital discharge (cost savings, $6.45 million; 95% uncertainty interval [UI], $0.59-$16.52 million; lower in 94.1% of iterations) and with prehospital discharge (cost savings, $42.84 million; 95% UI, $19.35-$72.26 million; lower in 100% of iterations). Conclusions and Relevance: Prehospital point-of-care troponin and paramedic risk stratification for patients with acute chest pain could result in substantial cost savings. These findings should be considered by policy makers in decisions surrounding the potential utility of prehospital chest pain risk stratification and point-of-care troponin models provided that safety is confirmed in prospective studies.

Risk-standardized mortality metric to monitor hospital performance for chest pain presentations.

AIMS: Risk-standardized mortality rates (RSMR) have been used to monitor hospital performance in procedural and disease-based registries, but limitations include the potential to promote risk-averse clinician decisions and a lack of assessment of the whole patient journey. We aimed to determine whether it is feasible to use RSMR at the symptom-level to monitor hospital performance using routinely collected, linked, clinical and administrative data of chest pain presentations. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 192 978 consecutive adult patients (mean age 62 years; 51% female) with acute chest pain without ST-elevation brought via emergency medical services (EMS) to 53 emergency departments in Victoria, Australia (1/1/2015-30/6/2019). From 32 candidate variables, a risk-adjusted logistic regression model for 30-day mortality (C-statistic 0.899) was developed, with excellent calibration in the full cohort and with optimism-adjusted bootstrap internal validation. Annual 30-day RSMR was calculated by dividing each hospital's observed mortality by the expected mortality rate and multiplying it by the annual mean 30-day mortality rate. Hospital performance according to annual 30-day RSMR was lower for outer regional or remote locations and at hospitals without revascularisation capabilities. Hospital rates of angiography or transfer for patients diagnosed with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) correlated with annual 30-day RSMR, but no correlations were observed with other existing key performance indicators. CONCLUSION: Annual hospital 30-day RSMR can be feasibly calculated at the symptom-level using routinely collected, linked clinical, and administrative data. This outcome-based metric appears to provide additional information for monitoring hospital performance in comparison with existing process of care key performance measures.

Epidemiology, outcomes and predictors of mortality in patients transported by ambulance for dyspnoea: A population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: There are currently limited data to inform the management of patients transported by emergency medical services (EMS) with dyspnoea. We aimed to describe the incidence, aetiology and outcomes of patients transported by EMS for dyspnoea using a large population-based sample and to identify factors associated with 30-day mortality. METHODS: Consecutive EMS attendances for dyspnoea in Victoria, Australia from January 2015 to June 2019 were included. Data were individually linked to hospital and mortality records to determine incidence, diagnoses, and outcomes. Factors associated with 30-day mortality were assessed using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: During the study period, there were 2 505 324 cases attended by EMS, of whom 346 228 (14%) met inclusion criteria for dyspnoea. The incidence of EMS attendances for dyspnoea was 1566 per 100 000 person-years, and was higher in females, older patients and socially disadvantaged areas. Of the 271 204 successfully linked cases (median age 76 years; 51% women), 79% required hospital admission with a 30-day mortality of 9%. The most common final diagnoses (and 30-day mortality rates) were lower respiratory tract infection (13%, mortality 11%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (13%, mortality 6.4%), heart failure (9.1%, mortality 9.8%), arrhythmias (3.9%, mortality 4.4%), acute coronary syndromes (3.9%, mortality 9.5%) and asthma (3.2%, mortality 0.5%). Predictors of mortality included older age, male sex, pre-existing chronic kidney disease, heart failure or cancer, abnormal respiratory status or vital signs and pre-hospital intubation. CONCLUSION: Dyspnoea is a common presentation with a broad range of causes and is associated with high rates of hospitalisation and death.

Online Unproctored Clinical Examinations: The Perceptions and Performance of Final Year Dental Students.

BACKGROUND: Take home, or open-book, examinations (OBE) are designed to be completed at a location of student choice, whilst providing comprehensive assessment of learning outcomes. Supporters of OBE refer to their authenticity, in that they reflect real-world practice where use of external resources is routine and encouraged. A contrasting view is that efficient practice requires a solid base of knowledge upon which to draw. The aim of this evaluation was to elicit learners' perceptions of the open-book, unproctored examination approach; we sought student views on authenticity, assessment preparation, use of resources, and anxiety. METHODS: Quantitative and qualitative data were gathered using an online, self-administered survey. We sought to determine the correlation between student views and examination performance via consideration of final examination marks. RESULTS: Heightened anxiety levels tended to increase assessment preparations and were found to be inversely related to learners' perceptions that the OBE was an authentic test. An inverse relationship was seen between learners' OBE examination performance and consulting resources during the examination. Examination marks were not significantly related to endorsement of continued online delivery of learning, time spent preparing for OBE in comparison to other types of assessment, greater anxiety than usual, perceptions of test authenticity, or experiencing a supportive test environment. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study may inform curriculum and assessment development, learning and teaching practices, and support student voice and experience.

Assessment and feedback in dental education: a journey.

The authors describe their personal experience of responding to changing perceptions of best practice and the expanding evidence base, in relation to assessment and feedback in dental education. Changes at a particular dental school over the years are described, along with a more general outlook, culminating in suggestions for future directions.