Developing survey weights to ensure representativeness in a national, matched cohort study: results from the children and young people with Long Covid (CLoCk) study.

BACKGROUND: Findings from studies assessing Long Covid in children and young people (CYP) need to be assessed in light of their methodological limitations. For example, if non-response and/or attrition over time systematically differ by sub-groups of CYP, findings could be biased and any generalisation limited. The present study aimed to (i) construct survey weights for the Children and young people with Long Covid (CLoCk) study, and (ii) apply them to published CLoCk findings showing the prevalence of shortness of breath and tiredness increased over time from baseline to 12-months post-baseline in both SARS-CoV-2 Positive and Negative CYP. METHODS: Logistic regression models were fitted to compute the probability of (i) Responding given envisioned to take part, (ii) Responding timely given responded, and (iii) (Re)infection given timely response. Response, timely response and (re)infection weights were generated as the reciprocal of the corresponding probability, with an overall 'envisioned population' survey weight derived as the product of these weights. Survey weights were trimmed, and an interactive tool developed to re-calibrate target population survey weights to the general population using data from the 2021 UK Census. RESULTS: Flexible survey weights for the CLoCk study were successfully developed. In the illustrative example, re-weighted results (when accounting for selection in response, attrition, and (re)infection) were consistent with published findings. CONCLUSIONS: Flexible survey weights to address potential bias and selection issues were created for and used in the CLoCk study. Previously reported prospective findings from CLoCk are generalisable to the wider population of CYP in England. This study highlights the importance of considering selection into a sample and attrition over time when considering generalisability of findings.

Examining the quality and population representativeness of linked survey and administrative data: guidance and illustration using linked 1958 National Child Development Study and Hospital Episode Statistics data.

Introduction: Recent years have seen an increase in linkages between survey and administrative data. It is important to evaluate the quality of such data linkages to discern the likely reliability of ensuing research. Evaluation of linkage quality and bias can be conducted using different approaches, but many of these are not possible when there is a separation of processes for linkage and analysis to help preserve privacy, as is typically the case in the UK (and elsewhere). Objectives: We aimed to describe a suite of generalisable methods to evaluate linkage quality and population representativeness of linked survey and administrative data which remain tractable when users of the linked data are not party to the linkage process itself. We emphasise issues particular to longitudinal survey data throughout. Methods: Our proposed approaches cover several areas: i) Linkage rates, ii) Selection into response, linkage consent and successful linkage, iii) Linkage quality, and iv) Linked data population representativeness. We illustrate these methods using a recent linkage between the 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS; a cohort following an initial 17,415 people born in Great Britain in a single week of 1958) and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) databases (containing important information regarding admissions, accident and emergency attendances and outpatient appointments at NHS hospitals in England). Results: Our illustrative analyses suggest that the linkage quality of the NCDS-HES data is high and that the linked sample maintains an excellent level of population representativeness with respect to the single dimension we assessed. Conclusions: Through this work we hope to encourage providers and users of linked data resources to undertake and publish thorough evaluations. We further hope that providing illustrative analyses using linked NCDS-HES data will improve the quality and transparency of research using this particular linked data resource.

Longitudinal pathways between childhood BMI, body dissatisfaction, and adolescent depression: an observational study using the UK Millenium Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Globally, more adolescents are having depressive symptoms than in the past. High BMI is a risk factor for depressive symptoms, potentially acting via increased body dissatisfaction. Robust longitudinal evidence of these associations could help to inform preventive interventions, but such evidence remains scarce. We investigated the longitudinal associations between BMI at age 7 years and depressive symptoms at age 14 years (objective 1), BMI at age 7 years and body dissatisfaction at age 11 years (objective 2), and body dissatisfaction at age 11 years and depression at age 14 years (objective 3). We also investigated the extent to which body dissatisfaction mediated the association between BMI and depressive symptoms (objective 4). METHODS: This study used data from the Millennium Cohort Study, a representative longitudinal general population cohort of UK children born between Sept 1, 2000, and Jan 11, 2002. We used univariable and multivariable linear regression models to investigate the associations in objectives 1-3 adjusting for a range of child-level and family-level confounders. For mediation analyses we used non-parametric g-formula (objective 4). We reported stratified results in presence of sex differences. All analyses were based on participants with complete BMI data and imputed confounders and outcomes. FINDINGS: Our sample included 13 135 participants. Of these, 6624 (50·4%) were male participants and 6511 (49·6%) were female participants; 11 096 (84·4%) were of White ethnicity and 2039 (15·6%) were from a minority ethnic background. At baseline, mean age was 7·2 years (SD 0·25, range 6·3-8·3). In multivariable models, an SD increase in BMI at age 7 years was associated with greater depressive symptoms at age 14 years (estimated regression coefficient [coeff]: 0·30, 95% CI 0·17-0·43) and greater body dissatisfaction at age 11 years (coeff 0·15, 0·12-0·18). Greater body dissatisfaction at age 11 years was associated with higher depressive symptoms at age 14 years (coeff 0·60, 0·52-0·68). All these associations were twice as large in girls as in boys. Body dissatisfaction explained 43% of the association between BMI and depression in girls. INTERPRETATION: Our findings bear relevance for interventions aimed at reducing weight in childhood and reducing body dissatisfaction. Implementation of evidence-based body image interventions and identification of drivers of weight stigma should be key public health priorities. Interventions aiming to reduce weight in childhood need to avoid increasing body dissatisfaction and should target environmental drivers of weight rather than individuals. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust; The Royal Society; Economic and Social Research Council; and the National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Using linked administrative data to aid the handling of non-response and restore sample representativeness in cohort studies: the 1958 national child development study and hospital episode statistics data.

BACKGROUND: There is growing interest in whether linked administrative data have the potential to aid analyses subject to missing data in cohort studies. METHODS: Using linked 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS; British cohort born in 1958, n = 18,558) and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data, we applied a LASSO variable selection approach to identify HES variables which are predictive of non-response at the age 55 sweep of NCDS. We then included these variables as auxiliary variables in multiple imputation (MI) analyses to explore the extent to which they helped restore sample representativeness of the respondents together with the imputed non-respondents in terms of early life variables (father's social class at birth, cognitive ability at age 7) and relative to external population benchmarks (educational qualifications and marital status at age 55). RESULTS: We identified 10 HES variables that were predictive of non-response at age 55 in NCDS. For example, cohort members who had been treated for adult mental illness had more than 70% greater odds of bring non-respondents (odds ratio 1.73; 95% confidence interval 1.17, 2.51). Inclusion of these HES variables in MI analyses only helped to restore sample representativeness to a limited extent. Furthermore, there was essentially no additional gain in sample representativeness relative to analyses using only previously identified survey predictors of non-response (i.e. NCDS rather than HES variables). CONCLUSIONS: Inclusion of HES variables only aided missing data handling in NCDS to a limited extent. However, these findings may not generalise to other analyses, cohorts or linked administrative datasets. This work provides a demonstration of the use of linked administrative data for the handling of missing cohort data which we hope will act as template for others.

Evaluation of variation in special educational needs provision and its impact on health and education using administrative records for England: umbrella protocol for a mixed-methods research programme.

INTRODUCTION: One-third of children in England have special educational needs (SEN) provision recorded during their school career. The proportion of children with SEN provision varies between schools and demographic groups, which may reflect variation in need, inequitable provision and/or systemic factors. There is scant evidence on whether SEN provision improves health and education outcomes. METHODS: The Health Outcomes of young People in Education (HOPE) research programme uses administrative data from the Education and Child Health Insights from Linked Data-ECHILD-which contains data from all state schools, and contacts with National Health Service hospitals in England, to explore variation in SEN provision and its impact on health and education outcomes. This umbrella protocol sets out analyses across four work packages (WP). WP1 defined a range of 'health phenotypes', that is health conditions expected to need SEN provision in primary school. Next, we describe health and education outcomes (WP1) and individual, school-level and area-level factors affecting variation in SEN provision across different phenotypes (WP2). WP3 assesses the impact of SEN provision on health and education outcomes for specific health phenotypes using a range of causal inference methods to account for confounding factors and possible selection bias. In WP4 we review local policies and synthesise findings from surveys, interviews and focus groups of service users and providers to understand factors associated with variation in and experiences of identification, assessment and provision for SEN. Triangulation of findings on outcomes, variation and impact of SEN provision for different health phenotypes in ECHILD, with experiences of SEN provision will inform interpretation of findings for policy, practice and families and methods for future evaluation. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Research ethics committees have approved the use of the ECHILD database and, separately, the survey, interviews and focus groups of young people, parents and service providers. These stakeholders will contribute to the design, interpretation and communication of findings.

Is there a sex difference in mortality rates in paediatric intensive care units?: a systematic review.

Introduction: Mortality rates in infancy and childhood are lower in females than males. However, for children admitted to Paediatric Intensive Care Units (PICU), mortality has been reported to be lower in males, although males have higher admission rates. This female mortality excess for the subgroup of children admitted in intensive care is not well understood. To address this, we carried out a systematic literature review to summarise the available evidence. Our review studies the differences in mortality between males and females aged 0 to <18 years, while in a PICU, to examine whether there was a clear difference (in either direction) in PICU mortality between the two sexes, and, if present, to describe the magnitude and direction of this difference. Methods: Any studies that directly or indirectly reported the rates of mortality in children admitted to intensive care by sex were eligible for inclusion. The search strings were based on terms related to the population (those admitted into a paediatric intensive care unit), the exposure (sex), and the outcome (mortality). We used the search databases MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science as these cover relevant clinical publications. We assessed the reliability of included studies using a modified version of the risk of bias in observational studies of exposures (ROBINS-E) tool. We considered estimating a pooled effect if there were at least three studies with similar populations, periods of follow-up while in PICU, and adjustment variables. Results: We identified 124 studies of which 114 reported counts of deaths by males and females which gave a population of 278,274 children for analysis, involving 121,800 (44%) females and 156,474 males (56%). The number of deaths and mortality rate for females were 5,614 (4.61%), and for males 6,828 (4.36%). In the pooled analysis, the odds ratio of female to male mortality was 1.06 [1.01 to 1.11] for the fixed effect model, and 1.10 [1.00 to 1.21] for the random effects model. Discussion: Overall, males have a higher admission rate to PCU, and potentially lower overall mortality in PICU than females. Systematic Review Registration: www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.php?RecordID=203009, identifier (CRD42020203009).

Are mammography image acquisition factors, compression pressure and paddle tilt, associated with breast cancer detection in screening?

OBJECTIVES: To assess the associations between objectively measured mammographic compression pressure and paddle tilt and breast cancer (BC) detected at the same ("contemporaneous") screen, subsequent screens, or in-between screens (interval cancers). METHODS: Automated pressure and paddle tilt estimates were derived for 80,495 mammographic examinations in a UK population-based screening programme. Adjusted logistic regression models were fitted to estimate the associations of compression parameters with BC detected at contemporaneous screen (777 cases).Nested case-control designs were used to estimate associations of pressure and tilt with: (a) interval cancer (148 cases/625 age-matched controls) and (b) subsequent screen-detected cancer (344/1436), via conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Compression pressure was negatively associated with odds of BC at contemporaneous screen (odds ratio (OR) for top versus bottom third of the pressure distribution: 0.74; 95% CI 0.60, 0.92; P-for-linear-trend (Pt) = 0.007). There was weak evidence that moderate pressure at screening was associated with lower odds of interval cancer (OR for middle versus bottom third: 0.63; 95% CI 0.38, 1.05; p = 0.079), but no association was found between pressure and the odds of BC at subsequent screen. There was no evidence that paddle tilt was associated with the odds of contemporaneous, subsequent screen or interval cancer detection. CONCLUSIONS: Findings are consistent with compression pressure, but not paddle tilt, affecting the performance of mammographic screening by interfering with its ability to detect cancers. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: Inadequate or excessive compression pressure at screening may contribute to a reduced ability to detect cancers, resulting in a greater number of interval cancer cases.

Risks of Ventricular Arrhythmia and Heart Failure in Carriers of RBM20 Variants.

BACKGROUND: Variants in RBM20 are reported in 2% to 6% of familial cases of dilated cardiomyopathy and may be associated with fatal ventricular arrhythmia and rapid heart failure progression. We sought to determine the risk of adverse events in RBM20 variant carriers and the impact of sex on outcomes. METHODS: Consecutive probands and relatives carrying RBM20 variants were retrospectively recruited from 12 cardiomyopathy units. The primary end point was a composite of malignant ventricular arrhythmia (MVA) and end-stage heart failure (ESHF). MVA and ESHF end points were also analyzed separately and men and women compared. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) contemporary to MVA was examined. RBM20 variant carriers with left ventricular systolic dysfunction (RBM20LVSD) were compared with variant-elusive patients with idiopathic left ventricular systolic dysfunction. RESULTS: Longitudinal follow-up data were available for 143 RBM20 variant carriers (71 men; median age, 35.5 years); 7 of 143 had an MVA event at baseline. Thirty of 136 without baseline MVA (22.0%) reached the primary end point, and 16 of 136 (11.8%) had new MVA with no significant difference between men and women (log-rank P=0.07 and P=0.98, respectively). Twenty of 143 (14.0%) developed ESHF (17 men and 3 women; log-rank P<0.001). Four of 10 variant carriers with available LVEF contemporary to MVA had an LVEF >35%. At 5 years, 15 of 67 (22.4%) RBM20LVSD versus 7 of 197 (3.6%) patients with idiopathic left ventricular systolic dysfunction had reached the primary end point (log-rank P<0.001). RBM20 variant carriage conferred a 6.0-fold increase in risk of the primary end point. CONCLUSIONS: RBM20 variants are associated with a high risk of MVA and ESHF compared with idiopathic left ventricular systolic dysfunction. The risk of MVA in male and female RBM20 variant carriers is similar, but male sex is strongly associated with ESHF.

Risk of school exclusion among adolescents receiving social care or special educational needs services: A whole-population administrative data cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Exclusion from school is associated with health, well-being and social detriments and disproportionately affects vulnerable children. No study in England has examined the total cumulative risk of exclusion across secondary school among children with a history of children's social care (CSC) or special educational needs (SEN). OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of any secondary school exclusion among adolescents receiving CSC or SEN services compared with their peers. METHODS: An administrative data cohort study comparing children in English state schools (n = 1,031,500) with no history of CSC or SEN provision with children who had received different levels of CSC and SEN in combination. Outcomes were proportions of students with any fixed-term or permanent exclusion in years 7 to 9 (age 11 to 14) and years 10 to 11 (age 14 to 16). RESULTS: Overall, 13 % of children were excluded at least once across years 7 to 11. CSC exposure was associated with exclusion risk: 32 % of children in need (or formerly in need) and 40 % of current or former children looked after and those subject to child protection plans were excluded at least once across years 7 to 11, compared to 12 % of the non-exposed group. After adjusting for confounders, children with SEN history were more at risk of exclusion, regardless of CSC exposure category (except for exclusions among children looked after during years 10 to 11). Rates of exclusion varied significantly between local authorities. CONCLUSIONS: Large inequalities in school exclusion rates between CSC-exposed and unexposed children were observed, with even higher rates observed for children with SEN history. These inequalities undermine the right to education of these vulnerable groups of children.

Comparative Effectiveness of Adalimumab vs Tofacitinib in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis in Australia.

Importance: There is a need for observational studies to supplement evidence from clinical trials, and the target trial emulation (TTE) framework can help avoid biases that can be introduced when treatments are compared crudely using observational data by applying design principles for randomized clinical trials. Adalimumab (ADA) and tofacitinib (TOF) were shown to be equivalent in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in a randomized clinical trial, but to our knowledge, these drugs have not been compared head-to-head using routinely collected clinical data and the TTE framework. Objective: To emulate a randomized clinical trial comparing ADA vs TOF in patients with RA who were new users of a biologic or targeted synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (b/tsDMARD). Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative effectiveness study emulating a randomized clinical trial of ADA vs TOF included Australian adults aged 18 years or older with RA in the Optimising Patient Outcomes in Australian Rheumatology (OPAL) data set. Patients were included if they initiated ADA or TOF between October 1, 2015, and April 1, 2021; were new b/tsDMARD users; and had at least 1 component of the disease activity score in 28 joints using C-reactive protein (DAS28-CRP) recorded at baseline or during follow-up. Intervention: Treatment with either ADA (40 mg every 14 days) or TOF (10 mg daily). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was the estimated average treatment effect, defined as the difference in mean DAS28-CRP among patients receiving TOF compared with those receiving ADA at 3 and 9 months after initiating treatment. Missing DAS28-CRP data were multiply imputed. Stable balancing weights were used to account for nonrandomized treatment assignment. Results: A total of 842 patients were identified, including 569 treated with ADA (387 [68.0%] female; median age, 56 years [IQR, 47-66 years]) and 273 treated with TOF (201 [73.6%] female; median age, 59 years [IQR, 51-68 years]). After applying stable balancing weights, mean DAS28-CRP in the ADA group was 5.3 (95% CI, 5.2-5.4) at baseline, 2.6 (95% CI, 2.5-2.7) at 3 months, and 2.3 (95% CI, 2.2-2.4) at 9 months; in the TOF group, it was 5.3 (95% CI, 5.2-5.4) at baseline, 2.4 (95% CI, 2.2-2.5) at 3 months, and 2.3 (95% CI, 2.1-2.4) at 9 months. The estimated average treatment effect was -0.2 (95% CI, -0.4 to -0.03; P = .02) at 3 months and -0.03 (95% CI, -0.2 to 0.1; P = .60) at 9 months. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, there was a modest but statistically significant reduction in DAS28-CRP at 3 months for patients receiving TOF compared with those receiving ADA and no difference between treatment groups at 9 months. Three months of treatment with either drug led to clinically relevant average reductions in mean DAS28-CRP, consistent with remission.

To what extent are objectively measured mammographic imaging techniques associated with compression outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the association between objectively measurable imaging techniques and the resulting compression thickness and dose. METHODS: The study included 80,495 routine screens from the South-West London Breast Screening Service between March 2013 and July 2017. Average compression force, paddle tilt and dose were calculated. The Volpara® DensityTM algorithm was used to estimate pressure, breast volume and density.Linear regression models, using generalized estimating equations (GEEs) to account for clustering by practitioner, assessed the strength of the associations between the imaging compression outcomes, (thickness, dose) and imaging techniques (force, pressure and paddle tilt), adjusting for the subject's characteristics (age, ethnicity, breast volume and percent mammographic density). RESULTS: Fully adjusted linear regression models showed that compression thickness decreased by ~1 mm (~2% of mean thickness) for every 1daN increase in force and decreased by ~0.8 mm with an increase of 1 kPa of pressure (at median pressure). Increasing pressure above 15 kPa resulted in minimal reduction in thickness. Dose increased with increased force but decreased by ~1% of mean dose with every increase in 1 kPa of pressure. For 1o increase in paddle tilt, the compression thickness increased by ~1.5 mm (~2.5%) and dose increased by ~2.5%, (Pt <0.001 in all cases). CONCLUSION: Differences in imaging technique are associated with imaging outcome measures (thickness and dose). A better understanding of the association between objective image acquisition parameters and tumour conspicuity could lead to clearer guidelines for practitioners. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: Increased paddle tilt is associated with increased compression thickness and increased dose after adjustment for breast volume and force applied.

Could interventions on physical activity mitigate genomic liability for obesity? Applying the health disparity framework in genetically informed studies.

Polygenic scores (PGS) are now commonly available in longitudinal cohort studies, leading to their integration into epidemiological research. In this work, our aim is to explore how polygenic scores can be used as exposures in causal inference-based methods, specifically mediation analyses. We propose to estimate the extent to which the association of a polygenic score indexing genetic liability to an outcome could be mitigated by a potential intervention on a mediator. To do this this, we use the interventional disparity measure approach, which allows us to compare the adjusted total effect of an exposure on an outcome, with the association that would remain had we intervened on a potentially modifiable mediator. As an example, we analyse data from two UK cohorts, the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS, N = 2575) and the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC, N = 3347). In both, the exposure is genetic liability for obesity (indicated by a PGS for BMI), the outcome is late childhood/early adolescent BMI, and the mediator and potential intervention target is physical activity, measured between exposure and outcome. Our results suggest that a potential intervention on child physical activity can mitigate some of the genetic liability for childhood obesity. We propose that including PGSs in a health disparity measure approach, and causal inference-based methods more broadly, is a valuable addition to the study of gene-environment interplay in complex health outcomes.

Socioeconomic position, bronchiolitis and asthma in children: counterfactual disparity measures from a national birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The debated link between severe respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in early life and asthma has yet to be investigated within a social inequity lens. We estimated the magnitude of socioeconomic disparity in childhood asthma which would remain if no child were admitted to hospital for bronchiolitis, commonly due to RSV, during infancy. METHODS: The cohort, constructed from national administrative health datasets, comprised 83853 children born in Scotland between 1 January 2007 and 31 June 2008. Scottish Index for Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) was used to capture socioeconomic position. Emergency admissions for bronchiolitis before age 1 year were identified from hospital records. Yearly indicators of asthma/wheeze from ages 2 to 9 years were created using dispensing data and hospital admission records. RESULTS: Using latent class growth analysis, we identified four trajectories of asthma/wheeze: early-transient (2.2% of the cohort), early-persistent (2.0%), intermediate-onset (1.8%) and no asthma/wheeze (94.0%). The estimated marginal risks of chronic asthma (combining early-persistent and intermediate-onset groups) varied by SIMD, with risk differences for the medium and high deprivation groups, relative to the low deprivation group, of 7.0% (95% confidence interval: 3.7-10.3) and 13.0% (9.6-16.4), respectively. Using counterfactual disparity measures, we estimated that the elimination of bronchiolitis requiring hospital admission could reduce these risk differences by 21.2% (4.9-37.5) and 17.9% (10.4-25.4), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of disparity in chronic asthma prevalence by deprivation level remains unexplained. Our paper offers a guide to using causal inference methods to study other plausible pathways to inequities in asthma using complex, linked administrative data.

Target Trial Emulation and Bias Through Missing Eligibility Data: An Application to a Study of Palivizumab for the Prevention of Hospitalization Due to Infant Respiratory Illness.

Target trial emulation (TTE) applies the principles of randomized controlled trials to the causal analysis of observational data sets. One challenge that is rarely considered in TTE is the sources of bias that may arise if the variables involved in the definition of eligibility for the trial are missing. We highlight patterns of bias that might arise when estimating the causal effect of a point exposure when restricting the target trial to individuals with complete eligibility data. Simulations consider realistic scenarios where the variables affecting eligibility modify the causal effect of the exposure and are missing at random or missing not at random. We discuss means to address these patterns of bias, namely: 1) controlling for the collider bias induced by the missing data on eligibility, and 2) imputing the missing values of the eligibility variables prior to selection into the target trial. Results are compared with the results when TTE is performed ignoring the impact of missing eligibility. A study of palivizumab, a monoclonal antibody recommended for the prevention of respiratory hospital admissions due to respiratory syncytial virus in high-risk infants, is used for illustration.

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia subtypes: Comparing birth prevalence, occurrence by maternal age, and mortality in a national birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: Population-based administrative data have rarely been used to compare the birth prevalence, risk factors for occurrence, and mortality of congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) subtypes. OBJECTIVES: We used a national birth cohort to identify CDH subtypes and compared their birth prevalence, relationship with maternal age after accounting for sociodemographic factors, and 1-year mortality rates. METHODS: Linked hospital admission and death records were used to identify isolated and complex CDH cases (involving additional anomalies) among singleton livebirths in England between 2002 and 2018. The prevalence of each CDH subtype per 10,000 livebirths was estimated overall and by infant, birth and maternal characteristics. The relationship between maternal age and each subtype relative to no CDH was examined using multivariable log-binomial regression to estimate risk ratios (RRs). One-year mortality rates were examined using Kaplan-Meier curves and the hazard ratio (HR) of complex versus isolated CDH was calculated using Cox regression. RESULTS: Among 9.5 million livebirths, we identified 1285 with isolated CDH and 1150 with complex CDH. The overall prevalence of isolated and complex CDH was 1.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3, 1.4) and 1.2 (95% CI 1.1, 1.3) per 10,000 livebirths, respectively. Only complex CDH was associated with maternal age. Compared with maternal age 25-34 years, complex CDH risk was elevated for maternal age < 20 years (RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.00, 1.72). Risk was highest for maternal age ≥ 40 years (RR 1.61, 95% CI 1.21, 2.15) although accounting for chromosomal anomalies attenuated the risk (RR 1.39, 95% CI 1.00, 1.92). The 1-year mortality rate for complex CDH (33.1%, 95% CI 30.5, 35.9) was slightly higher than for isolated CDH (29.7%, 95% CI 27.3, 32.3) (HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.96, 1.27). CONCLUSIONS: Mechanisms of occurrence differed between and within CDH subtypes and 1-year mortality of complex CDH was slightly higher than for isolated CDH.

Predictive model for long COVID in children 3 months after a SARS-CoV-2 PCR test.

BACKGROUND: To update and internally validate a model to predict children and young people (CYP) most likely to experience long COVID (i.e. at least one impairing symptom) 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing and to determine whether the impact of predictors differed by SARS-CoV-2 status. METHODS: Data from a nationally matched cohort of SARS-CoV-2 test-positive and test-negative CYP aged 11-17 years was used. The main outcome measure, long COVID, was defined as one or more impairing symptoms 3 months after PCR testing. Potential pre-specified predictors included SARS-CoV-2 status, sex, age, ethnicity, deprivation, quality of life/functioning (five EQ-5D-Y items), physical and mental health and loneliness (prior to testing) and number of symptoms at testing. The model was developed using logistic regression; performance was assessed using calibration and discrimination measures; internal validation was performed via bootstrapping and the final model was adjusted for overfitting. RESULTS: A total of 7139 (3246 test-positives, 3893 test-negatives) completing a questionnaire 3 months post-test were included. 25.2% (817/3246) of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positives and 18.5% (719/3893) of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-negatives had one or more impairing symptoms 3 months post-test. The final model contained SARS-CoV-2 status, number of symptoms at testing, sex, age, ethnicity, physical and mental health, loneliness and four EQ-5D-Y items before testing. Internal validation showed minimal overfitting with excellent calibration and discrimination measures (optimism-adjusted calibration slope: 0.96575; C-statistic: 0.83130). CONCLUSIONS: We updated a risk prediction equation to identify those most at risk of long COVID 3 months after a SARS-CoV-2 PCR test which could serve as a useful triage and management tool for CYP during the ongoing pandemic. External validation is required before large-scale implementation.

Evaluation of pushing out of children from all English state schools: Administrative data cohort study of children receiving social care and their peers.

BACKGROUND: Pushing out (off-rolling) occurs where pupils are illegally excluded from school. Those receiving children's social care (CSC) services (children in need (CiN), on child protection plans (CPPs) or looked after (CLA)) are thought to be at increased risk, but limited evidence inhibits understanding of this phenomenon. The extent of pushing out can be inferred from non-enrolment in administrative data. OBJECTIVE: To estimate proportions of children not enrolled across secondary school (aged 11-16, up to year 11) and to explore the association between CSC history and non-enrolment in year 10/11. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: >1 M pupils in year 7 (aged 11/12) in English state schools, 2011/12 and 2012/13. METHODS: We estimated the proportion of children not enrolled across years 8 to 11, disaggregated by CSC history. We assessed with regression modelling the association between CSC history and non-enrolment in years 10/11. RESULTS: Of children without CSC history, 3.8% had ≥1 year not enrolled by year 11. This was higher in those with a history CiN (8.1%), CPP (9.4%) or CLA (10.4%) status. The odds of non-enrolment in years 10/11 were higher among those with CLA history vs non-exposed peers (OR 4.76, 95% CI 4.49-5.05) as well as in those with CPP history (3.60, 3.39-3.81) and CiN history (2.53, 2.49-2.58). History of special educational needs further increased non-enrolment odds, including after confounder adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Findings imply that children with CSC history are more likely to be pushed out from school than children without, especially those with special educational needs.

Parental feeding and childhood genetic risk for obesity: exploring hypothetical interventions with causal inference methods.

BACKGROUND: Parental-feeding behaviors are common intervention targets for childhood obesity, but often only deliver small changes. Childhood BMI is partly driven by genetic effects, and the extent to which parental-feeding interventions can mediate child genetic liability is not known. Here we aim to examine how potential interventions on parental-feeding behaviors can mitigate some of the association between child genetic liability and BMI in early adolescence, using causal inference methods. METHODS: Data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children were used to estimate an interventional disparity measure for a child polygenic score for BMI (PGS-BMI) on BMI at 12 years. The approach compares counterfactual outcomes for different hypothetical interventions on parental-feeding styles applied when children are 10-11 years (n = 4248). Results are presented as adjusted total association (Adj-Ta) between genetic liability (PGS-BMI) and BMI at 12 years, versus the interventional disparity measure-direct effect (IDM-DE), which represents the association that would remain, had we intervened on parental-feeding under different scenarios. RESULTS: For children in the top quintile of genetic liability, an intervention shifting parental feeding to the levels of children with lowest genetic risk, resulted in a difference of 0.81 kg/m2 in BMI at 12 years (Adj-Ta = 3.27, 95% CI: 3.04, 3.49; versus IDM-DE = 2.46, 95% CI: 2.24, 2.67). CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that parental-feeding interventions have the potential to buffer some of the genetic liability for childhood obesity. Further, we highlight a novel way to analyze potential interventions for health conditions only using secondary data analyses, by combining methodology from statistical genetics and social epidemiology.

Physical and mental health 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection (long COVID) among adolescents in England (CLoCk): a national matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We describe post-COVID symptomatology in a non-hospitalised, national sample of adolescents aged 11-17 years with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with matched adolescents with negative PCR status. METHODS: In this national cohort study, adolescents aged 11-17 years from the Public Health England database who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between January and March, 2021, were matched by month of test, age, sex, and geographical region to adolescents who tested negative. 3 months after testing, a subsample of adolescents were contacted to complete a detailed questionnaire, which collected data on demographics and their physical and mental health at the time of PCR testing (retrospectively) and at the time of completing the questionnaire (prospectively). We compared symptoms between the test-postive and test-negative groups, and used latent class analysis to assess whether and how physical symptoms at baseline and at 3 months clustered among participants. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN 34804192). FINDINGS: 23 048 adolescents who tested positive and 27 798 adolescents who tested negative between Jan 1, 2021, and March 31, 2021, were contacted, and 6804 adolescents (3065 who tested positive and 3739 who tested negative) completed the questionnaire (response rate 13·4%). At PCR testing, 1084 (35·4%) who tested positive and 309 (8·3%) who tested negative were symptomatic and 936 (30·5%) from the test-positive group and 231 (6·2%) from the test-negative group had three or more symptoms. 3 months after testing, 2038 (66·5%) who tested positive and 1993 (53·3%) who tested negative had any symptoms, and 928 (30·3%) from the test-positive group and 603 (16·2%) from the test-negative group had three or more symptoms. At 3 months after testing, the most common symptoms among the test-positive group were tiredness (1196 [39·0%]), headache (710 [23·2%]), and shortness of breath (717 [23·4%]), and among the test-negative group were tiredness (911 [24·4%]), headache (530 [14·2%]), and other (unspecified; 590 [15·8%]). Latent class analysis identified two classes, characterised by few or multiple symptoms. The estimated probability of being in the multiple symptom class was 29·6% (95% CI 27·4-31·7) for the test-positive group and 19·3% (17·7-21·0) for the test-negative group (risk ratio 1·53; 95% CI 1·35-1·70). The multiple symptoms class was more frequent among those with positive PCR results than negative results, in girls than boys, in adolescents aged 15-17 years than those aged 11-14 years, and in those with lower pretest physical and mental health. INTERPRETATION: Adolescents who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 had similar symptoms to those who tested negative, but had a higher prevalence of single and, particularly, multiple symptoms at the time of PCR testing and 3 months later. Clinicians should consider multiple symptoms that affect functioning and recognise different clusters of symptoms. The multiple and varied symptoms show that a multicomponent intervention will be required, and that mental and physical health symptoms occur concurrently, reflecting their close relationship. FUNDING: UK Department of Health and Social Care, in their capacity as the National Institute for Health Research, and UK Research and Innovation.