Partitioning the risk of tuberculosis transmission in household contact studies.

Household contact studies of tuberculosis (TB) are a common way to study disease transmission dynamics. However these studies lack a mechanism for accounting for community transmission, which is known to be significant, particularly in high burden settings. We illustrate a statistical approach for estimating both the correlates with transmission of TB in a household setting and the probability of community transmission using a modified Bayesian mixed-effects model. This is applied to two household contact studies in Vitória, Brazil from 2008-2013 and Kampala, Uganda from 1995-2004 that enrolled households with an individual that was recently diagnosed with pulmonary TB. We estimate the probability of community transmission to be higher in Uganda (ranging from 0.21 to 0.69, depending on HHC age and HIV status of the index case) than in Brazil (ranging from 0.13 for young children to 0.50 in adults). These estimates are consistent with a higher overall burden of disease in Uganda compared to Brazil. Our method also estimates an increasing risk of community-acquired TB with age of the household contact, consistent with existing literature. This approach is a useful way to integrate the role of the community in understanding TB disease transmission dynamics in household contact studies.

Further evidence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the sputum of culture-negative pulmonary tuberculosis suspects using an ultrasensitive molecular assay.

BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) is critical to TB control. However, many patients with paucibacillary TB disease remain undiagnosed. Current TB elimination goals require new tools to diagnose early disease. We evaluated performance of the Totally Optimized PCR (TOP) TB assay, a novel ultrasensitive molecular test. METHODS: We assessed analytical specificity against nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM), and estimated the diagnostic accuracy of TOP in a pilot study in Brazil (n = 46) and a cross-sectional study in Boston (n = 60). We compared TOP results to culture and a composite reference standard (CRS). RESULTS: TOP exhibited no cross-reactivity against NTM. We tested 132 respiratory specimens from 106 patients with suspected pulmonary TB. The pilot demonstrated feasibility and 100% (95% CI 85-100) sensitivity in predominantly smear-positive specimens; TOP's specificity against solid media culture was low (58%, 37-77) but improved against a CRS (93%, 68-100). Similarly, when using the CRS in the Boston study, TOP (88%, 1-99) had greater sensitivity than solid or liquid media culture (25%, 3-65) and similar specificity (both 100%, 93-100). CONCLUSIONS: The TOP assay enables detection of M. tuberculosis in culture-negative paucibacillary disease. While the use of TOP for the diagnosis of paucibacillary disease will require further clinical validation, its high sensitivity indicate a more immediate utility as a rule out TB test.

Cough-aerosol cultures of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the prediction of outcomes after exposure. A household contact study in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Mycobacterium tuberculosis cultures of cough-generated aerosols from patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) are a quantitative method to measure infectiousness and to predict secondary outcomes in exposed contacts. However, their reproducibility has not been established. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the predictive value of colony-forming units (CFU) of M. tuberculosis in cough aerosols on secondary infection and disease in household contacts in Brazil. METHODS: Adult sputum smear+ and culture+ pulmonary TB cases underwent a standard evaluation and were categorized according to aerosol CFU. We evaluated household contacts for infection at baseline and at 8 weeks with TST and IGRA, and secondary disease. RESULTS: We enrolled 48 index TB cases; 40% had negative aerosols, 27% low aerosols (<10 CFU) and 33% high aerosols (≥10 CFU). Of their 230 contacts, the proportion with a TST ≥10 mm at 8 weeks was 59%, 65% and 75%, respectively (p = 0.34). Contacts of high aerosol cases had greater IGRA readouts (median 4.6 IU/mL, IQR 0.02-10) when compared to those with low (0.8, 0.2-10) or no aerosol (0.1, 0-3.7; p = 0.08). IGRA readouts in TST converters of high aerosol cases (median 20 IU/mL, IQR 10-24) were larger than those from aerosol-negative (0.13, 0.04-3; p = o.o2). 8/9 (89%) culture+ secondary TB cases occurred in contacts of aerosol+ cases. CONCLUSION: Aerosol CFU predicts quantitatively IGRA readouts among household contacts of smear positive TB cases. Our results strengthen the argument of using cough aerosols to guide targeted preventive treatment strategies, a necessary component of current TB elimination projections.

Intensity of exposure to pulmonary tuberculosis determines risk of tuberculosis infection and disease.

Household contacts of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) patients are at increased risk of TB infection and disease. However, their risk in relation to the intensity of exposure remains unknown.We studied smear-positive TB cases and their household contacts in Vitória, Brazil. We collected clinical, demographic and radiographic information from TB cases, and obtained tuberculin skin test (TST) and QuantiFERON-TB Gold (QFT) results from household contacts. We measured intensity of exposure using a proximity score and sleep location in relation to the TB index case and defined infection by TST ≥10 mm or QFT ≥0.35 UI·mL-1 We ascertained secondary TB cases by reviewing local and nationwide case registries.We included 160 TB index cases and 894 household contacts. 464 (65%) had TB infection and 23 (2.6%) developed TB disease. Risk of TB infection and disease increased with more intense exposures. In an adjusted analysis, the proximity score was associated with TB disease (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.25-2.08; p<0.000); however, its diagnostic performance was only moderate.Intensity of exposure increased risk of TB infection and disease among household contacts; however, its diagnostic performance was still suboptimal. A biomarker to target preventive therapy is urgently needed in this at-risk population.

Incident Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in household contacts of infectious tuberculosis patients in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: In household contact investigations of tuberculosis (TB), a second tuberculin skin test (TST) obtained several weeks after a first negative result consistently identifies individuals that undergo TST conversion. It remains unclear whether this delay in M. tuberculosis infection is related to differences in the infectious exposure, TST boosting, partial host resistance, or some other factor. METHODS: We conducted a household contact study Vitória, Brazil. Between 2008 and 2013, we identified culture-positive pulmonary TB patients and evaluated their household contacts with both a TST and interferon gamma release assay (IGRA), and identified TST converters at 8-12 weeks post study enrollment. Contacts were classified as TST-positive (≥10 mm) at baseline, TST converters, or persistently TST-negative. We compared TST converters to TST-positive and to TST-negative contacts separately, using generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: We enrolled 160 index patients and 838 contacts; 523 (62.4%) were TST+, 62 (7.4%) TST converters, and 253 (30.2%) TST-. TST converters were frequently IGRA- at 8-12 weeks. In adjusted analyses, characteristics distinguishing TST converters from TST+ contacts (no contact with another TB patient and residence ownership) were different than those differentiating them from TST- contacts (stronger cough in index patient and contact BCG scar). CONCLUSIONS: The individual risk and timing of M. tuberculosis infection within households is variable and dependent on index patient, contact and environmental factors within the household, and the surrounding community. Our findings suggest a threshold effect in the risk of infection in humans.

Strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmitting infection in Brazilian households and those associated with community transmission of tuberculosis.

Molecular epidemiologic studies have shown that the dynamics of tuberculosis transmission varies geographically. We sought to determine which strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) were infecting household contacts (HHC), and which were causing clusters of tuberculosis (TB) disease in Vitoria-ES, Brazil. A total of 741 households contacts (445 TST +) and 139 index cases were characterized according to the proportion of contacts in each household that had a tuberculin skin test positive: low (LT) (≤40% TST+), high (HT) (≥70% TST+) and (40-70% TST+) intermediate (IT) transmission. IS6110-RFLP and spoligotyping analysis were performed only 139 MTB isolates from index cases and 841 community isolates. Clustering occurred in 45% of the entire study population. There was no statistically significant association between MTB household transmission category and clustering. Within the household study population, the proportion of clusters in HT and LT groups was similar (31% and 36%, respectively; p = 0.82). Among index cases isolates associated with households demonstrating TST conversion, the frequency of unique pattern genotypes was higher for index cases of the LT compared to HT households (p = 0.03). We concluded that clusters and lineages associated with MTB infection in HT households had no proclivity for increased transmission of TB in the community.

Extensions to Bayesian generalized linear mixed effects models for household tuberculosis transmission.

Household contact studies, a mainstay of tuberculosis transmission research, often assume that tuberculosis-infected household contacts of an index case were infected within the household. However, strain genotyping has provided evidence against this assumption. Understanding the household versus community infection dynamic is essential for designing interventions. The misattribution of infection sources can also bias household transmission predictor estimates. We present a household-community transmission model that estimates the probability of community infection, that is, the probability that a household contact of an index case was actually infected from a source outside the home and simultaneously estimates transmission predictors. We show through simulation that our method accurately predicts the probability of community infection in several scenarios and that not accounting for community-acquired infection in household contact studies can bias risk factor estimates. Applying the model to data from Vitória, Brazil, produced household risk factor estimates similar to two other standard methods for age and sex. However, our model gave different estimates for sleeping proximity to index case and disease severity score. These results show that estimating both the probability of community infection and household transmission predictors is feasible and that standard tuberculosis transmission models likely underestimate the risk for two important transmission predictors. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Importance of cough and M. tuberculosis strain type as risks for increased transmission within households.

RATIONALE: The degree to which tuberculosis (TB) is transmitted between persons is variable. Identifying the factors that contribute to transmission could provide new opportunities for TB control. Transmission is influenced by host, bacterial and environmental factors. However, distinguishing their individual effects is problematic because measures of disease severity are tightly correlated, and assessing the virulence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates is complicated by epidemiological and clinical confounders. OBJECTIVES: To overcome these problems, we investigated factors potentially associated with TB transmission within households. METHODS: We evaluated patients with smear-positive (≥2+), pulmonary TB and classified M. tuberculosis strains into single nucleotide polymorphism genetic cluster groups (SCG). We recorded index case, household contact, and environmental characteristics and tested contacts with tuberculin skin test (TST) and interferon-gamma release assay. Households were classified as high (≥70% of contacts with TST≥10 mm) and low (≤40%) transmission. We used logistic regression to determine independent predictors. RESULT: From March 2008 to June 2012, we screened 293 TB patients to enroll 124 index cases and their 731 contacts. There were 23 low and 73 high transmission households. Index case factors associated with high transmission were severity of cough as measured by a visual analog cough scale (VACS) and the Leicester Cough Questionnaire (LCQ), and cavitation on chest radiograph. SCG 3b strains tended to be more prevalent in low (27.3%) than in high (12.5%) transmission households (p = 0.11). In adjusted models, only VACS (p<0.001) remained significant. SCG was associated with bilateral disease on chest radiograph (p = 0.002) and marginally associated with LCQ sores (p = 0.058), with group 3b patients having weaker cough. CONCLUSIONS: We found differential transmission among otherwise clinically similar patients with advanced TB disease. We propose that distinct strains may cause differing patterns of cough strength and cavitation in the host leading to diverging infectiousness. Larger studies are needed to verify this hypothesis.