Declines in HIV prevalence can be associated with changing sexual behaviour in Uganda, urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether observed changes in HIV prevalence in countries with generalised HIV epidemics are associated with changes in sexual risk behaviour. METHODS: A mathematical model was developed to explore the relation between prevalence recorded at antenatal clinics (ANCs) and the pattern of incidence of infection throughout the population. To create a null model a range of assumptions about sexual behaviour, natural history of infection, and sampling biases in ANC populations were explored to determine which factors maximised declines in prevalence in the absence of behaviour change. Modelled prevalence, where possible based on locally collected behavioural data, was compared with the observed prevalence data in urban Haiti, urban Kenya, urban Cote d'Ivoire, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Uganda, and urban Ethiopia. RESULTS: Recent downturns in prevalence observed in urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti, like Uganda before them, could only be replicated in the model through reductions in risk associated with changes in behaviour. In contrast, prevalence trends in urban Cote d'Ivoire, Malawi, urban Ethiopia, and Rwanda show no signs of changed sexual behaviour. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in patterns of HIV prevalence in urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti are quite recent and caution is required because of doubts over the accuracy and representativeness of these estimates. Nonetheless, the observed changes are consistent with behaviour change and not the natural course of the HIV epidemic.

Investigating ethnic inequalities in the incidence of sexually transmitted infections: mathematical modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate ethnic differences in rates of gonorrhoea using empirical sexual behaviour data in a simple mathematical model. To explore the impact of different intervention strategies in this simulated population. METHODS: The findings from cross sectional studies of gonorrhoea rates and sexual behaviour in three ethnic groups in south east London were used to determine the parameters for a deterministic, mathematical model of gonorrhoea transmission dynamics, in a population stratified by sex, sexual activity (rate of partner change), and ethnic group (white, black African, and black Caribbean). We compared predicted and observed rates of infection and simulated the effects of targeted and population-wide intervention strategies. RESULTS: In model simulations the reported sexual behaviours and mixing patterns generated major differences in the rates of gonorrhoea experienced by each subpopulation. The fit of the model to observed data was sensitive to assumptions about the degree of mixing by level of sexual activity, the numbers of sexual partnerships reported by men and women, and the degree to which observed data underestimate female infection rates. Interventions to reduce duration of infection were most effective when targeted at black Caribbeans. CONCLUSIONS: Average measures of sexual behaviour in large populations are inadequate descriptors for the epidemiology of gonorrhoea. The consistency between the model results and empirical data shows that profound differences in gonorrhoea rates between ethnic groups can be explained by modest differences in a limited number of sexual behaviours and mixing patterns. Targeting effective services to particular ethnic groups can have a disproportionate influence on disease reduction in the whole community.

The age of infection with varicella-zoster virus in St Lucia, West Indies.

Sera from an age-stratified sample of 1810 people from the Caribbean island of St Lucia were tested for antibodies against varicella-zoster virus. The results indicate that very few infections occur in childhood, which agrees with clinical survey data from other tropical countries, but contrasts with the observed high case rate in children in temperate countries. The alternative hypotheses which may explain these results are discussed, and it is suggested that high ambient temperatures interfere with the transmission of the virus. Irrespective of the cause, the pattern of varicella incidence observed has important implications for any vaccination policy adopted in tropical countries.

The age of infection with varicella-zoster virus in St. Lucia, West Indies

Sera from an age-stratified sample of 1810 people from the Caribbean island of St. Lucia were tested for antibodies against varicella-zoster virus. The results indicate that very few infections occur in childhood which agrees with clinical survey data from other tropical countries, but contrasts with the observed high case rate in children in temperate countries. The alternative hypothesis which may explain these results are discussed, and it is suggested that high ambient tempertaures interfere with the transmission of the virus. Irrespective of the cause the pattern of varicella incidence observed has important implications for any vaccination policy adopted in tropical countries (AU)