Informing pandemic management in Germany with trustworthy living evidence syntheses and guideline development: lessons learned from the COVID-19 evidence ecosystem.

OBJECTIVES: We present the 'COVID-19 evidence ecosystem' (CEOsys) as a German network to inform pandemic management and to support clinical and public health decision-making. We discuss challenges faced when organizing the ecosystem and derive lessons learned for similar networks acting during pandemics or health-related crises. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Bringing together 18 university hospitals and additional institutions, CEOsys key activities included research prioritization, conducting living systematic reviews (LSRs), supporting evidence-based (living) guidelines, knowledge translation (KT), detecting research gaps, and deriving recommendations, backed by technical infrastructure and capacity building. RESULTS: CEOsys rapidly produced 31 high-quality evidence syntheses and supported three living guidelines on COVID-19-related topics, while also developing methodological procedures. Challenges included CEOsys' late initiation in relation to the pandemic outbreak, the delayed prioritization of research questions, the continuously evolving COVID-19-related evidence, and establishing a technical infrastructure. Methodological-clinical tandems, the cooperation with national guideline groups and international collaborations were key for efficiency. CONCLUSION: CEOsys provided a proof-of-concept for a functioning evidence ecosystem at the national level. Lessons learned include that similar networks should, among others, involve methodological and clinical key stakeholders early on, aim for (inter)national collaborations, and systematically evaluate their value. We particularly call for a sustainable network.

International and regional spread of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in Europe.

Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) are of particular concern due to the spread of antibiotic resistance genes associated with mobile genetic elements. In this study, we collected 687 carbapenem-resistant strains recovered among clinical samples from 41 hospitals in nine Southern European countries (2016-2018). We identified 11 major clonal lineages, with most isolates belonging to the high-risk clones ST258/512, ST101, ST11, and ST307. blaKPC-like was the most prevalent carbapenemase-encoding gene (46%), with blaOXA-48 present in 39% of isolates. Through the combination and comparison of this EURECA collection with the previous EuSCAPE collection (2013-2014), we investigated the spread of high-risk clones circulating in Europe exhibiting regional differences. We particularly found blaKPC-like ST258/512 in Greece, Italy, and Spain, blaOXA-48 ST101 in Serbia and Romania, blaNDM ST11 in Greece, and blaOXA-48-like ST14 in Türkiye. Genomic surveillance across Europe thus provides crucial insights for local risk mapping and informs necessary adaptions for implementation of control strategies.

Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 fitness gains from genomic surveillance data without prior lineage classification.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with increased fitness has had a strong impact on the epidemiology of COVID-19, with the higher effective reproduction number of the viral variants leading to new epidemic waves. Tracking such variants and their genetic signatures, using data collected through genomic surveillance, is therefore crucial for forecasting likely surges in incidence. Current methods of estimating fitness advantages of variants rely on tracking the changing proportion of a particular lineage over time, but describing successful lineages in a rapidly evolving viral population is a difficult task. We propose a method of estimating fitness gains directly from nucleotide information generated by genomic surveillance, without a priori assigning isolates to lineages from phylogenies, based solely on the abundance of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The method is based on mapping changes in the genetic population structure over time. Changes in the abundance of SNPs associated with periods of increasing fitness allow for the unbiased discovery of new variants, thereby obviating a deliberate lineage assignment and phylogenetic inference. We conclude that the method provides a fast and reliable way to estimate fitness advantages of variants without the need for a priori assigning isolates to lineages.

Attributable mortality of infections caused by carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales: results from a prospective, multinational case-control-control matched cohorts study (EURECA).

OBJECTIVES: To assess the mortality attributable to infections caused by carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) and to investigate the effect of clinical management on differences in observed outcomes in a multinational matched cohort study. METHODS: A prospective matched-cohorts study (NCT02709408) was performed in 50 European hospitals from March 2016 to November 2018. The main outcome was 30-day mortality with an active post-discharge follow-up when applied. The CRE cohort included patients with complicated urinary tract infections, complicated intra-abdominal infections, pneumonia, or bacteraemia from other sources because of CRE. Two control cohorts were selected: patients with infection caused by carbapenem-susceptible Enterobacterales (CSE) and patients without infection. Matching criteria included type of infection for the CSE group, hospital ward of CRE detection, and duration of hospital admission up to CRE detection. Multivariable and stratified Cox regression was applied. RESULTS: The cohorts included 235 patients with CRE infection, 235 patients with CSE infection, and 705 non-infected patients. The 30-day mortality (95% CI) was 23.8% (18.8-29.6), 10.6% (7.2-15.2), and 8.4% (6.5-10.6), respectively. The difference in 30-day mortality rates between patients with CRE infection when compared with patients with CSE infection was 13.2% (95% CI, 6.3-20.0), (HR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.55-4.26; p < 0.001), and 15.4% (95% CI, 10.5-20.2) when compared with non-infected patients (HR, 3.85; 95% CI, 2.57-5.77; p < 0.001). The population attributable fraction for 30-day mortality for CRE vs. CSE was 19.28%, and for CRE vs. non-infected patients was 9.61%. After adjustment for baseline variables, the HRs for mortality were 1.87 (95% CI, 0.99-3.50; p 0.06) and 3.65 (95% CI, 2.29-5.82; p < 0.001), respectively. However, when treatment-related time-dependent variables were added, the HR of CRE vs. CSE reduced to 1.44 (95% CI, 0.78-2.67; p 0.24). DISCUSSION: CRE infections are associated with significant attributable mortality and increased adjusted hazard of mortality when compared with CSE infections or patients without infection. Underlying patient characteristics and a delay in appropriate treatment play an important role in the CRE mortality.

Forecasting local hospital bed demand for COVID-19 using on-request simulations.

Accurate forecasting of hospital bed demand is crucial during infectious disease epidemics to avoid overwhelming healthcare facilities. To address this, we developed an intuitive online tool for individual hospitals to forecast COVID-19 bed demand. The tool utilizes local data, including incidence, vaccination, and bed occupancy data, at customizable geographical resolutions. Users can specify their hospital's catchment area and adjust the initial number of COVID-19 occupied beds. We assessed the model's performance by forecasting ICU bed occupancy for several university hospitals and regions in Germany. The model achieves optimal results when the selected catchment area aligns with the hospital's local catchment. While expanding the catchment area reduces accuracy, it improves precision. However, forecasting performance diminishes during epidemic turning points. Incorporating variants of concern slightly decreases precision around turning points but does not significantly impact overall bed occupancy results. Our study highlights the significance of using local data for epidemic forecasts. Forecasts based on the hospital's specific catchment area outperform those relying on national or state-level data, striking a better balance between accuracy and precision. These hospital-specific bed demand forecasts offer valuable insights for hospital planning, such as adjusting elective surgeries to create additional bed capacity promptly.

A global view on carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii.

To give an update on the molecular epidemiology and global distribution of carbapenemase encoding genes, we subjected 313 carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii isolated from 114 study centers in 47 countries in five world regions, Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, and North America, to whole genome sequencing. Numbers of isolates investigated were proportional to the population size of the contributing countries. Molecular epidemiology was investigated using seven-loci and core genome multilocus sequence typing, whole-genome single nucleotide polymorphism phylogenies, and the intrinsic blaOXA-51-like variant. Carbapenemase encoding genes were identified by multiplex PCR and ResFinder. Among the total of 313 isolates, 289 (92.3%) were assigned to A. baumannii international clones (IC) IC1-IC8. IC2 predominated with 196 isolates (62.6%) and was spread worldwide, followed by IC5 with 44 isolates (14.1%) mainly confined to Latin America. Six isolates (1.9%) originating from Belgium, Egypt, Italy, and Pakistan represent the novel IC9. Acquired OXA-type carbapenemase genes were found in 300 (96%) isolates with blaOXA-23-like and blaOXA-40-like predominating, which constitutes a significant increase compared to our findings from 2010. Metallo-beta-lactamases were rare with seven isolates (2.2%). The distribution of ICs and carbapenemase determinants can vary widely among different geographical regions. IMPORTANCE Carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii are of increasing public health importance, as they are resistant to last-line antibiotics. International clones with well-characterized resistance genes dominate globally; however, locally, other lineages with different properties may be of importance to consider. This study investigated isolates from a broad geographic origin from 114 hospitals in 47 countries and from five world regions ensuring the greatest possible diversity in an organism known for its propensity for clonal epidemic spread and reflecting the current global epidemiology of carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii. In Latin America, a lineage different from other geographic regions circulates, with a different resistance gene profile. This knowledge is important to adjust local infection prevention measures. In a global world with migration and increasing use of antimicrobials, multidrug-resistant bacteria will continue to adapt and challenge our healthcare systems worldwide.

Three Klebsiella pneumoniae lineages causing bloodstream infections variably dominated within a Greek hospital over a 15 year period.

Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) has emerged as a major clinical and public health threat. The rapid dissemination of this pathogen is driven by several successful clones worldwide. We aimed to investigate the CRKP clonal lineages, their antibiotic resistance determinants and their potential transmissions in a tertiary care hospital located in Athens, Greece. Between 2003 and 2018, 392 CRKP isolates from bloodstream infections were recovered from hospitalized patients. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) was performed on the Illumina platform to characterize 209 of these isolates. In total, 74 % (n=155) of 209 isolates belonged to three major clonal lineages: ST258 (n=108), ST147 (n=29) and ST11 (n=18). Acquired carbapenemase genes were the mechanisms of resistance in 205 isolates (bla KPC, n=123; bla VIM, n=56; bla NDM, n=20; bla OXA-48, n=6). Strong associations (P=0.0004) were observed between carbapenemase genes and clonal lineages. We first isolated bla VIM-1-carrying ST147 strains during the early sampling period in 2003, followed by the emergence of bla KPC-2-carrying ST258 in 2006 and bla NDM-1-carrying ST11 in 2013. Analysis of genetic distances between the isolates revealed six potential transmission events. When contextualizing the current collection with published data, ST147 reflected the global diversity, ST258 clustered with isolates representing the first introduction into Europe and ST11 formed a distinct geographically restricted lineage indicative of local spread. This study demonstrates the changing profile of bloodstream CRKP in a tertiary care hospital over a 15 year period and underlines the need for continued genomic surveys to develop strategies to contain further dissemination. This article contains data hosted by Microreact.

Clinical and molecular features of NDM-producing Acinetobacter baumannii in a multicenter study in Israel.

BACKGROUND: NDM-producing Acinetobacter baumannii (NDMAb) were reported sporadically worldwide but little is known about the transmission, epidemiology and clinical features of NDMAb-infected patients. The goals of this study were to characterize (1) the epidemiology and clinical features of NDMAb-infected patients; (2) the microbiological and molecular features of NDMAb isolates and (3) the transmission networks of NDMAb within healthcare facilities. METHODS: The study was conducted at the Tel-Aviv Sourasky, Rambam and Sha'are-Zedek Medical centers (TASMC, RMC and SZMC, respectively) in Israel. All cases detected between January 2018 and July 2019 were included. Phylogenetic analysis was based on core genome SNP distances. Clonal transmission was defined according to molecular (≤ 5 SNP) and epidemiological criteria (overlapping hospital stay). NDMAb cases were compared at a ratio of 1:2 with non-NDM carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii (CRAb) cases. RESULTS: The study included 54 NDMAb-positive out of 857 CRAb patients, including 6/179 (3.3%) in TASMC, 18/441 (4.0%) in SZMC and 30/237 (12.6%) in RMC. Patients infected by NDMAb had similar clinical features and risk factors as patients with non-NDM CRAb. The length-of-stay was higher in NDMAb cases (48.5 days vs. 36 days, respectively, p = 0.097) and the in-hospital mortality was similarly high in both groups. Most isolates (41/54, 76%) were first detected from surveillance culture. The majority of isolates harbored the blaNDM-2 gene allele (n = 33), followed by the blaNDM-1 (n = 20) allele and the blaNDM-4 allele (n = 1). The majority of isolates were related within the ST level to other isolates in SZMC and RMC: 17/18 and 27/30 isolates, respectfully. The common ST's were the blaNDM-1 harboring ST-2 (n = 3) and ST-107 (n = 8) in SZMC and the blaNDM-2 harboring ST-103 in SZMC (n = 6) and in RMC (n = 27). All blaNDM alleles were located within a conserved mobile genetic environment flanked by the ISAb125 and IS91 family transposon. Clonal transmission was identified in most hospital-acquired cases in RMC and SZMC. CONCLUSION: NDMAb constitutes a minor part of CRAb cases and are clinically similar to non-NDM CRAb. Transmission of NDMAb occurs mostly by clonal spread.

An appeal for strengthening genomic pathogen surveillance to improve pandemic preparedness and infection prevention: the German perspective.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has highlighted the importance of viable infection surveillance and the relevant infrastructure. From a German perspective, an integral part of this infrastructure, genomic pathogen sequencing, was at best fragmentary and stretched to its limits due to the lack or inefficient use of equipment, human resources, data management and coordination. The experience in other countries has shown that the rate of sequenced positive samples and linkage of genomic and epidemiological data (person, place, time) represent important factors for a successful application of genomic pathogen surveillance. Planning, establishing and consistently supporting adequate structures for genomic pathogen surveillance will be crucial to identify and combat future pandemics as well as other challenges in infectious diseases such as multi-drug resistant bacteria and healthcare-associated infections. Therefore, the authors propose a multifaceted and coordinated process for the definition of procedural, legal and technical standards for comprehensive genomic pathogen surveillance in Germany, covering the areas of genomic sequencing, data collection and data linkage, as well as target pathogens. A comparative analysis of the structures established in Germany and in other countries is applied. This proposal aims to better tackle epi- and pandemics to come and take action from the "lessons learned" from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

[Establishment of genomic pathogen surveillance to strengthen pandemic preparedness and infection prevention in Germany]. / Etablierung der Genomischen Erreger-Surveillance zur Stärkung des Pandemie- und Infektionsschutzes in Deutschland.

The SARS-CoV­2 pandemic has shown a deficit of essential epidemiological infrastructure, especially with regard to genomic pathogen surveillance in Germany. In order to prepare for future pandemics, the authors consider it urgently necessary to remedy this existing deficit by establishing an efficient infrastructure for genomic pathogen surveillance. Such a network can build on structures, processes, and interactions that have already been initiated regionally and further optimize them. It will be able to respond to current and future challenges with a high degree of adaptability.The aim of this paper is to address the urgency and to outline proposed measures for establishing an efficient, adaptable, and responsive genomic pathogen surveillance network, taking into account external framework conditions and internal standards. The proposed measures are based on global and country-specific best practices and strategy papers. Specific next steps to achieve an integrated genomic pathogen surveillance include linking epidemiological data with pathogen genomic data; sharing and coordinating existing resources; making surveillance data available to relevant decision-makers, the public health service, and the scientific community; and engaging all stakeholders. The establishment of a genomic pathogen surveillance network is essential for the continuous, stable, active surveillance of the infection situation in Germany, both during pandemic phases and beyond.

Molecular features and transmission of NDM-producing Enterobacterales in Israeli hospitals.

OBJECTIVES: NDM-producing Enterobacterales (NDME) account for 34.9% of new carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales cases in Israeli hospitals. The goals of this study were to characterize the genomic composition of NDME isolates and mobile genetic elements (MGEs) and to identify NDME transmission events (TEs). METHODS: The study was conducted at the Tel-Aviv Sourasky, Rambam and Sha'are-Zedek Medical Centers (TASMC, RMC and SZMC, respectively). All NDME isolates detected between January 2018 and July 2019 were included.Phylogenetic analysis was based on core-genome SNP distances. Core-genome distance of ≤5 SNPs between isolates from patients with overlapping hospitalization periods was suggestive of a potential TE. MGEs were classified by comparison of the blaNDM gene flanking regions. RESULTS: The study included 212 NDME isolates from 203 patients, including 104 isolates from TASMC, 30 isolates from RMC and 78 isolates from SZMC. The majority of isolates (n = 157; 74%) harboured the blaNDM-1 gene, followed by the blaNDM-5 (n = 48) and blaNDM-15 genes (n = 7). The most common NDME species were Klebsiella pneumoniae (n = 67), Escherichia coli (n = 65) and Enterobacter cloacae (n = 45), all showing a highly diverse clonal structure. Most blaNDM-1-harbouring isolates (134/157; 85%) were divided into nine different MGE modules, variably distributed across species and hospitals.The numbers of post-admission acquisition cases (n = 118) that could be linked to other cases by both molecular and epidemiological criteria were 13/58 (24.2%), 3/48 (6.3%) and 4/12 (33.3%) in TASMC, SZMC and RMC, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study depicted a complex and diverse population structure, suggesting that NDME had not spread via clonal expansion.

Hand hygiene improvement of individual healthcare workers: results of the multicentre PROHIBIT study.

BACKGROUND: Traditionally, hand hygiene (HH) interventions do not identify the observed healthcare workers (HWCs) and therefore, reflect HH compliance only at population level. Intensive care units (ICUs) in seven European hospitals participating in the "Prevention of Hospital Infections by Intervention and Training" (PROHIBIT) study provided individual HH compliance levels. We analysed these to understand the determinants and dynamics of individual change in relation to the overall intervention effect. METHODS: We included HCWs who contributed at least two observation sessions before and after intervention. Improving, non-changing, and worsening HCWs were defined with a threshold of 20% compliance change. We used multivariable linear regression and spearman's rank correlation to estimate determinants for the individual response to the intervention and correlation to overall change. Swarm graphs visualized ICU-specific patterns. RESULTS: In total 280 HCWs contributed 17,748 HH opportunities during 2677 observation sessions. Overall, pooled HH compliance increased from 43.1 to 58.7%. The proportion of improving HCWs ranged from 33 to 95% among ICUs. The median HH increase per improving HCW ranged from 16 to 34 percentage points. ICU wide improvement correlated significantly with both the proportion of improving HCWs (ρ = 0.82 [95% CI 0.18-0.97], and their median HH increase (ρ = 0.79 [0.08-0.97]). Multilevel regression demonstrated that individual improvement was significantly associated with nurse profession, lower activity index, higher nurse-to-patient ratio, and lower baseline compliance. CONCLUSIONS: Both the proportion of improving HCWs and their median individual improvement differed substantially among ICUs but correlated with the ICUs' overall HH improvement. With comparable overall means the range in individual HH varied considerably between some hospitals, implying different transmission risks. Greater insight into improvement dynamics might help to design more effective HH interventions in the future.

Mortality associated with third-generation cephalosporin resistance in Enterobacteriaceae bloodstream infections at one South African hospital.

OBJECTIVES: Enterobacteriaceae are common pathogens causing bloodstream infection (BSI) in sub-Saharan Africa and frequently express third-generation cephalosporin (3GC) resistance; however, the impact of 3GC resistance on clinical outcomes is rarely studied. METHODS: We conducted a single-site prospective cohort study at Tygerberg Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa to examine the feasibility of measuring impacts of 3GC resistance in Enterobacteriaceae BSI. We included patients with 3GC-susceptible and 3GC-resistant BSIs and matched each BSI patient to two uninfected patients. We determined the concordance of initial antibiotic treatment with the corresponding isolate's susceptibility profile. We performed exploratory impact analysis using multivariable regression models. RESULTS: Between 1 June 2017 and 31 January 2018, we matched 177 Enterobacteriaceae BSI patients to 347 uninfected patients. Among these BSIs, 35% were phenotypically 3GC resistant. Parameters describing clinical comorbidity showed strong associations with mortality. We found that 18% of 3GC-R and 3% of 3GC-S BSI patient received non-concordant initial therapy. In multivariable Cox regression, we found a mortality impact over their matched patients for both 3GC-R (cause-specific hazard ratio 23.77; 95% CI 5.12-110.3) and 3GC-S (HR 7.49; 95%CI 3.08-18.19) BSI. There was a nonsignificant ratio of these ratios (HR 3.18; 95% CI 0.54-18.70), limited by the small sample size. CONCLUSION: This form of impact estimation was feasible in one hospital in South Africa where 3GC-R status was associated with non-concordant initial antibiotic treatment. There was a possible increase in mortality among individuals with 3GC-resistant Enterobacteriaceae, but with broad confidence intervals. These analytical approaches could be applied to larger datasets to improve precision of estimates.

SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and testing: results of a survey from the Network of University Hospitals (NUM), B-FAST.

Background: The B-FAST project of the National University Network (NUM) examines and records applied surveillance strategies implemented in hospitals i.a., to protect patients and employees from SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: Infection control physicians in German university hospitals (UK), as well as non-university hospitals (NUK; Bavaria, Lower Saxony) were surveyed in March 2021 regarding SARS-CoV-2 testing/surveillance strategies in a cross-sectional study using a standardized online questionnaire. The focus was on screening strategies taking into account the "test" methods used (case history, PCR, antigen, antibody test). Results: The response rate was 91.7% (33/36) in UK and 11.3%-32.2% in NUK. Almost all hospitals (95.0%) performed a symptom and exposure check and/or testing upon inpatient admission. Non-cause-related testing (screening) of health care workers in COVID wards was preferably done by PCR in UK (69.7% PCR; 12.1% antigen), while NUK (29.9% PCR; 49.3% antigen) used antigen testing more frequently. Regardless of the type of facility, about half of the respondents rated the benefit of screening higher than the effort (patients: 49%; employees: 45%). Conclusion: Testing/surveillance strategies find a high level of acceptance at German hospitals and are generally carried out in accordance with the national testing strategy with differences depending on the level of care.

Evaluation of the BD Phoenix CPO detect panel for prediction of Ambler class carbapenemases.

Rapid detection of carbapenemases as a cause of resistance is beneficial for infection control and antimicrobial therapy. The BD Phoenix NMIC-502 panel and CPO detect test identifies presence of carbapenemases in Enterobacterales such as Klebsiella pneumoniae and assigns them to Ambler classes. To evaluate the performance of the CPO detect panel, we employed a European collection of 1222 K. pneumoniae including carbapenem non-susceptible and susceptible clinical isolates from 26 countries, for which draft genomes were available after Illumina sequencing and the presence of carbapenemase genes had been identified by ARIBA gene calling. The CPO panel detected 488 out of 494 carbapenemase-encoding isolates as positive and six as negative. One-hundred and two isolates were tested positive for carbapenemase in the absence of any carbapenemase gene. The CPO panel identified 229 out of 230 KPC-positive isolates as carbapenemase producing and classified 62 of these as class A enzyme. Similarly, the CPO panel correctly specified 167 of 182 as class D. Regarding metallo-beta-lactamases, the CPO panel assigned 78 of 90 MBL positive isolates to class B enzymes. The sensitivity of the CPO panel in detecting carbapenemase activity was 99.5%, 97.7% and 98.3% for class A, B and D enzymes, respectively. The sensitivity in assignation to Ambler class A, B and D was 27%, 86% and 91%, respectively. An overall sensitivity of 98.8% and specificity of 86% in unclassified detection of carbapenemases was observed, with frequent false positive detection of carbapenemase producing organisms, thus rendering further confirmatory tests necessary.

Differences in infection control and diagnostic measures for multidrug-resistant organisms in the tristate area of France, Germany and Switzerland in 2019 - survey results from the RH(E)IN-CARE network.

BACKGROUND: Multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) are a public health threat. Single-centre interventions, however, are likely to fail in the long term, as patients are commonly transferred between institutions given the economic integration across borders. A transnational approach targeting larger regions is needed to plan overarching sets of interventions. Here, we aim to describe differences in diagnostic and infection prevention and control (IPC) measures in the fight against MDROs. METHODS: In 2019, we systematically assessed diagnostic algorithms and IPC measures implemented for detection and control of MDROs at three tertiary academic care centres (Freiburg; Strasbourg; Basel). Data were collected using a standardised data collection sheet to be filled in by every centre. Uncertainties were clarified by direct contact via telephone or email with the data supplier. Internal validity was checked by at least two researchers independently filling in the survey. RESULTS: All centres have established a primarily culture-based, rather than a nucleic acid amplification-based approach for detection of MDROs (i.e., vancomycin-resistant Enterococci [VRE], methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus [MRSA], extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae [ESBL], carbapenemase-producing and carbapenem-resistant Gram-negatives [CPGN/CRGN]). IPC measures differed greatly across all centres. High-risk patients are screened for most MDROs on intensive care unit (ICU) admission in all centres; only the French centre is screening all patients admitted to the ICU for VRE, MRSA and ESBL. Patients colonised/infected by MRSA, quinolone-resistant ESBL Klebsiella spp. and CPGN/CRGN are isolated everywhere, whereas patients colonised/infected by VRE and ESBL are usually not isolated in the German centre. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to the French and Swiss centres, the German centre no longer uses isolation measures to control VRE and quinolone-susceptible ESBL. Overall, the French centre is more focused on intercepting MDRO transmission from outside, whereas the German and Swiss centres are more focused on intercepting endemic MDRO transmission. These findings point to important challenges regarding future attempts to standardise IPC measures across borders.    .

Navigating hospitals safely through the COVID-19 epidemic tide: Predicting case load for adjusting bed capacity.

BACKGROUND: The pressures exerted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic pose an unprecedented demand on healthcare services. Hospitals become rapidly overwhelmed when patients requiring life-saving support outpace available capacities. OBJECTIVE: We describe methods used by a university hospital to forecast case loads and time to peak incidence. METHODS: We developed a set of models to forecast incidence among the hospital catchment population and to describe the COVID-19 patient hospital-care pathway. The first forecast utilized data from antecedent allopatric epidemics and parameterized the care-pathway model according to expert opinion (ie, the static model). Once sufficient local data were available, trends for the time-dependent effective reproduction number were fitted, and the care pathway was reparameterized using hazards for real patient admission, referrals, and discharge (ie, the dynamic model). RESULTS: The static model, deployed before the epidemic, exaggerated the bed occupancy for general wards (116 forecasted vs 66 observed), ICUs (47 forecasted vs 34 observed), and predicted the peak too late: general ward forecast April 9 and observed April 8 and ICU forecast April 19 and observed April 8. After April 5, the dynamic model could be run daily, and its precision improved with increasing availability of empirical local data. CONCLUSIONS: The models provided data-based guidance for the preparation and allocation of critical resources of a university hospital well in advance of the epidemic surge, despite overestimating the service demand. Overestimates should resolve when the population contact pattern before and during restrictions can be taken into account, but for now they may provide an acceptable safety margin for preparing during times of uncertainty.

Integrated chromosomal and plasmid sequence analyses reveal diverse modes of carbapenemase gene spread among Klebsiella pneumoniae.

Molecular and genomic surveillance systems for bacterial pathogens currently rely on tracking clonally evolving lineages. By contrast, plasmids are usually excluded or analyzed with low-resolution techniques, despite being the primary vectors of antibiotic resistance genes across many key pathogens. Here, we used a combination of long- and short-read sequence data of Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates (n = 1,717) from a European survey to perform an integrated, continent-wide study of chromosomal and plasmid diversity. This revealed three contrasting modes of dissemination used by carbapenemase genes, which confer resistance to last-line carbapenems. First, blaOXA-48-like genes have spread primarily via the single epidemic pOXA-48-like plasmid, which emerged recently in clinical settings and spread rapidly to numerous lineages. Second, blaVIM and blaNDM genes have spread via transient associations of many diverse plasmids with numerous lineages. Third, blaKPC genes have transmitted predominantly by stable association with one successful clonal lineage (ST258/512) yet have been mobilized among diverse plasmids within this lineage. We show that these plasmids, which include pKpQIL-like and IncX3 plasmids, have a long association (and are coevolving) with the lineage, although frequent recombination and rearrangement events between them have led to a complex array of mosaic plasmids carrying blaKPC Taken altogether, these results reveal the diverse trajectories of antibiotic resistance genes in clinical settings, summarized as using one plasmid/multiple lineages, multiple plasmids/multiple lineages, and multiple plasmids/one lineage. Our study provides a framework for the much needed incorporation of plasmid data into genomic surveillance systems, an essential step toward a more comprehensive understanding of resistance spread.

Phylogeographical Analysis Reveals the Historic Origin, Emergence, and Evolutionary Dynamics of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus ST228.

BACKGROUND: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a common healthcare-associated pathogen that remains a major public health concern. Sequence type 228 (ST228) was first described in Germany and spread to become a successful MRSA clone in several European countries. In 2000, ST228 emerged in Lausanne and has subsequently caused several large outbreaks. Here, we describe the evolutionary history of this clone and identify the genetic changes underlying its expansion in Switzerland. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We aimed to understand the phylogeographic and demographic dynamics of MRSA ST228/ST111 by sequencing 530 representative isolates of this clone that were collected from 14 European countries between 1997 and 2012. RESULTS: The phylogenetic analysis revealed distinct lineages of ST228 isolates associated with specific geographic origins. In contrast, isolates of ST111, which is a single locus variant of ST228 sharing the same spa type t041, formed a monophyletic cluster associated with multiple countries. The evidence points to a German origin of the sampled population, with the basal German lineage being characterized by spa type t001. The highly successful Swiss ST228 lineage diverged from this progenitor clone through the loss of the aminoglycoside-streptothricin resistance gene cluster and the gain of mupirocin resistance. This lineage was introduced first in Geneva and was subsequently introduced into Lausanne. CONCLUSION: Our results reveal the radiation of distinct lineages of MRSA ST228 from a German progenitor, as the clone spread into different European countries. In Switzerland, ST228 was introduced first in Geneva and was subsequently introduced into Lausanne.