Bone mineral density is not associated with incident high-intensity back pain: a 10-year cohort study in men.

Although patients believe that osteoporosis is a painful condition, health professionals assume it is painless unless a fracture occurs. The association between BMD and back pain has not been examined longitudinally in community-based adults in an unbiased population using gold-standard measures. This study aimed to examine the association between BMD and incident high-intensity back pain and/or high disability over 10 years in Australian men without high-intensity symptoms at baseline. Men with no high-intensity back pain and/or high disability attending the Geelong Osteoporosis Study at the 5-year visit (occurring between 2006-2010) (considered the baseline for the current study) were followed for 10 years (reassessed between 2016-2021). Back pain and disability were assessed using the Graded Chronic Pain Scale at both time points. At baseline, DXA was used to measure lumbar spine and total hip BMD and spinal artefacts. The relationships between BMD and incident high-intensity pain and/or high disability at follow-up were examined using binary logistic regression, adjusted for age, body mass index, depression, education, smoking, mobility, and spinal artefacts. A total of 679 participants had no to low-intensity pain and/or no to low disability at baseline. A total of 441 attended follow-up, providing back pain and disability data. Thirty-seven men developed high-intensity pain and/or high disability. No association of BMD at any site was seen with incident high-intensity pain and/or high disability. BMD was not associated with incident high-intensity pain or disability in community-based men. These data provide evidence to dispel the erroneous community-held belief that low BMD is related to back pain and disability.

Cause-specific hazard Cox models with partly interval censoring - Penalized likelihood estimation using Gaussian quadrature.

The cause-specific hazard Cox model is widely used in analyzing competing risks survival data, and the partial likelihood method is a standard approach when survival times contain only right censoring. In practice, however, interval-censored survival times often arise, and this means the partial likelihood method is not directly applicable. Two common remedies in practice are (i) to replace each censoring interval with a single value, such as the middle point; or (ii) to redefine the event of interest, such as the time to diagnosis instead of the time to recurrence of a disease. However, the mid-point approach can cause biased parameter estimates. In this article, we develop a penalized likelihood approach to fit semi-parametric cause-specific hazard Cox models, and this method is general enough to allow left, right, and interval censoring times. Penalty functions are used to regularize the baseline hazard estimates and also to make these estimates less affected by the number and location of knots used for the estimates. We will provide asymptotic properties for the estimated parameters. A simulation study is designed to compare our method with the mid-point partial likelihood approach. We apply our method to the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study, illustrating an application of our proposed method.

Associations between postoperative anaemia and unplanned readmission to hospital after major surgery: a retrospective cohort study†.

BACKGROUND: Anaemia following major surgery may be associated with unplanned readmission to hospital. However, the severity-response relationship between the degree of anaemia at discharge and the risk of unplanned readmission is poorly defined. We aimed to describe the severity-response relationship between haemoglobin concentration at the time of discharge and the risk of unplanned readmission in a cohort of patients undergoing different types of major surgery. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in a single tertiary health service, including all patients who underwent major surgery (orthopaedic, abdominal, cardiac or thoracic) between 1 May 2011 and 1 February 2022. The primary outcome was unplanned readmission to hospital in the 90 days following discharge after the index surgical procedure. These complex, non-linear relationships were modelled with restricted cubic splines. RESULTS: We identified 22,134 patients and included 14,635 in the primary analysis, of whom 1804 (12%) experienced at least one unplanned readmission. The odds of unplanned readmission rose when the discharge haemoglobin concentration was < 100 g.l-1 (p < 0.001). On subgroup analysis, the haemoglobin threshold below which odds of readmission began to increase appeared to be higher in patients undergoing emergency surgery (110 g.l-1; p < 0.001) compared with elective surgery. Declining discharge haemoglobin concentration was associated with increased odds ratios (95%CI) of unplanned readmission in patients undergoing orthopaedic (1.08 (1.01-1.15), p = 0.03), abdominal (1.13 (1.07-1.19), p < 0.001) and thoracic (1.12 (1.01-1.24), p = 0.03) procedures, but not cardiac surgery (1.09 (0.99-1.19), p = 0.07). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that a haemoglobin concentration < 100 g.l-1 following elective procedures and < 110 g.l-1 following emergency procedures, at the time of hospital discharge after major surgery, was associated with unplanned readmission. Future interventional trials that aim to treat postoperative anaemia and reduce unplanned readmission should include patients with discharge haemoglobin below these thresholds.

Advancing randomized controlled trial methodologies: The place of innovative trial design in eating disorders research.

Randomized controlled trials can be used to generate evidence on the efficacy and safety of new treatments in eating disorders research. Many of the trials previously conducted in this area have been deemed to be of low quality, in part due to a number of practical constraints. This article provides an overview of established and more innovative clinical trial designs, accompanied by pertinent examples, to highlight how design choices can enhance flexibility and improve efficiency of both resource allocation and participant involvement. Trial designs include individually randomized, cluster randomized, and designs with randomizations at multiple time points and/or addressing several research questions (master protocol studies). Design features include the use of adaptations and considerations for pragmatic or registry-based trials. The appropriate choice of trial design, together with rigorous trial conduct, reporting and analysis, can establish high-quality evidence to advance knowledge in the field. It is anticipated that this article will provide a broad and contemporary introduction to trial designs and will help researchers make informed trial design choices for improved testing of new interventions in eating disorders. PUBLIC SIGNIFICANCE: There is a paucity of high quality randomized controlled trials that have been conducted in eating disorders, highlighting the need to identify where efficiency gains in trial design may be possible to advance the eating disorder research field. We provide an overview of some key trial designs and features which may offer solutions to practical constraints and increase trial efficiency.

Handling missing disease information due to death in diseases that need two visits to diagnose.

In studies that assess disease status periodically, time of disease onset is interval censored between visits. Participants who die between two visits may have unknown disease status after their last visit. In this work, we consider an additional scenario where diagnosis requires two consecutive positive tests, such that disease status can also be unknown at the last visit preceding death. We show that this impacts the choice of censoring time for those who die without an observed disease diagnosis. We investigate two classes of models that quantify the effect of risk factors on disease outcome: a Cox proportional hazards model with death as a competing risk and an illness death model that treats disease as a possible intermediate state. We also consider four censoring strategies: participants without observed disease are censored at death (Cox model only), the last visit, the last visit with a negative test, or the second last visit. We evaluate the performance of model and censoring strategy combinations on simulated data with a binary risk factor and illustrate with a real data application. We find that the illness death model with censoring at the second last visit shows the best performance in all simulation settings. Other combinations show bias that varies in magnitude and direction depending on the differential mortality between diseased and disease-free subjects, the gap between visits, and the choice of the censoring time.

Efficacy and safety of avatrombopag in combination with immunosuppressive therapy in treatment-naïve and relapsed/refractory severe aplastic anaemia: protocol for the DIAAMOND-Ava-FIRST and DIAAMOND-Ava-NEXT Bayesian Optimal Phase II trials.

INTRODUCTION: Immunosuppressive therapy (IST) with antithymocyte globulin (ATG) and ciclosporin is standard of care for patients with severe aplastic anaemia (sAA) not eligible or suitable for allogeneic stem cell transplant. While patients respond to IST, few achieve complete responses and a significant proportion are refractory or relapse. The addition of eltrombopag, a thrombopoietin-receptor agonist (TPO-A), to IST has been shown to improve haematological responses in sAA. Avatrombopag is a second-generation TPO-A with potential advantages over eltrombopag. However, to date avatrombopag has not been studied in sAA. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Investigator-initiated, single-arm registry-based Bayesian Optimal Phase II trial of avatrombopag conducted in two cohorts, patients with untreated sAA (FIRST cohort) and in patients with sAA that has relapsed or is refractory to IST (NEXT cohort). In the FIRST cohort, participants receive IST (equine ATG and ciclosporin) plus avatrombopag from day 1 until day 180 at 60 mg oral daily, with dose adjusted according to platelet count. Participants in the NEXT cohort receive avatrombopag at 60 mg oral daily from day 1 until day 180, with or without additional IST at the discretion of the treating clinician.For each cohort, two primary endpoints (haematological response and acquired clonal evolution) are jointly monitored and the trial reviewed at each interim analysis where a 'go/no-go' decision is made by evaluating the posterior probability of the events of interests. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial has received ethics approval (Monash Health RES-18-0000707A). The trial conduct will comply with ICH-GCP and all applicable regulatory requirements. The results of the trial will be submitted to a peer-review journal for publication. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12619001042134, ACTRN12619001043123.