Crystal-proven gout patients have an increased mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and infectious diseases especially when having tophi and/or high serum uric acid levels: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the cause-specific mortality and the possible involved clinical characteristics with increased mortality in a cohort of 700 patients with crystal-proven gout. The cause-specific mortality of gout was compared to the mortality of the general population. METHODS: Patients with arthritis referred for diagnosis were consecutively included in the Gout Arnhem-Liemers Cohort (GOAL). Joint fluid analysis was performed in all patients and only crystal-proven gout patients were included in this study. At inclusion clinical characteristics and laboratory values were collected. At follow-up patients who died were identified. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for all-causes, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and infectious diseases using indirect standardization methods for mortality outcomes and compared with the general population. The clinical characteristics of the patients who died were compared with those of the survivors and were analyzed by a logistic regression analysis to identify any associations with mortality. RESULTS: The study population at inclusion contained 573 (81.9%) men and 127 (18.1%) females with an average age of 62.0 (SD 13.4). During 3500 person-years from inclusion visit till 31 May 2016, in 700 gout patients, 66 deaths (27 cardiovascular deaths, 15 cancer-related deaths, 8 infectious deaths, 16 various other causes) occurred in this cohort. The all-cause standardized mortality ratio in gout patients was 2.21 (95% CI 1.68-2.74). In this cohort, gout patients had a higher SMR for death attributed to cardiovascular diseases (6.75; 95% CI 4.64-8.86), infectious diseases (4.66; 95% CI 1.51-7.82) and cancer (3.58; 95% CI 1.77-5.39). Corrected for confounders high serum uric acid levels (SUA; > 0,56 mmol/L), tophaceous gout, a history of peripheral vascular disease, myocardial infarction, and heart failure at the inclusion visit were associated with increased mortality during follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to the general population, gout patients have an increased association with all-cause disease mortality, especially attributed to cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and infectious diseases. This association is strongest in hyperuricemic (uric acid levels > 0,56 mmol/l) and tophaceous patients and in those with a history of peripheral vascular disease, myocardial infarction, and heart failure. Preventive measures like treatment of high SUA levels and treatment of cardiovascular risk factors need to be considered and evaluated.

Patient-reported gout attack frequency and allopurinol use in general practice in the Netherlands: a prospective observational cohort study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Gout is the most common inflammatory arthritis in the Dutch general practice population and is often managed with long-term uric acid lowering treatment. The clinical relevance of this treatment in preventing gout attacks is unclear. PRIMARY RESEARCH QUESTION: What is the frequency of self-reported gout attacks and what is the effect of allopurinol use in patients diagnosed with gout in general practice? METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Adult patients with a diagnostic consultation code for gout in the year 2013, 2014 or 2015 will be invited to participate in this prospective observational cohort study. Patients with a limited life expectancy will be excluded. Baseline measurements will include blood pressure, body mass index and a blood sample (estimated glomerular filtration rate, serum uric acid, cholesterol (low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein), glucose (fasting)). At the 2-year follow-up, patients will receive questionnaires every 3 months. The questionnaires at baseline, 12 months and 24 months assess the frequency of gout attacks, the presence of tophi, comorbidity, medication use, quality of life, diet and lifestyle. The questionnaires in between only assess the frequency of gout attacks and medication use for gout. Descriptive statistics will be used to calculate the mean frequency of self-reported gout attacks during the 2-year follow-up. The propensity score for each patient being offered allopurinol is estimated and used to match patients with and without allopurinol treatment. We will compare the frequency of gout attacks in these groups using multilevel Poisson regression analyses. With this type of analysis, we can calculate the corrected estimated effect of allopurinol on gout attack frequency. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The research protocol was approved by the Medical Ethical Committee of the Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam. The knowledge generated by this study will be transferred to the Dutch College of General Practitioners, conferences and to (inter)national peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NTR6329; Pre-results.

Crystal-proven Gout and Characteristic Gout Severity Factors Are Associated with Cardiovascular Disease.

OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to examine the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with crystal-proven gout compared to arthritis controls. Further, we analyzed the association between characteristic gout severity factors and CVD to provide further support for a pathogenetic relationship between gout and CVD. METHODS: Patients with arthritis referred for diagnosis were consecutively included in the Gout Arnhem-Liemers cohort. Joint fluid analysis was performed in all referred patients; controls were negative for crystals. Patients' characteristics and different manifestations of CVD and gout severity factors (disease duration, attack frequency, tophi, affected joints, high serum urate acid level, joint damage) were collected. Gout patients were compared with controls for the prevalence of CVD. In addition, the association between characteristic gout severity factors and presence of CVD was analyzed. RESULTS: Data from 700 gout patients and 276 controls were collected. CVD was present in 47% (95% CI 44%-51%) and 24% (95% CI 19%-29%) of gout patients and controls, respectively. Corrected for confounders, gout was still strongly associated with an increased prevalence of CVD compared to controls (OR 3.39, 95% CI 2.37-4.84). In patients with gout, disease duration ≥ 2 years, oligo- or polyarthritis, serum urate acid > 0.55 mmol/l at presentation, and joint damage were independently (p < 0.05) associated with prevalent CVD. CONCLUSION: Crystal-proven gout was strongly associated with an increased prevalence of CVD. In patients with gout, characteristic gout severity factors were associated with CVD.

Performance of the 2015 ACR-EULAR classification criteria for gout in a primary care population presenting with monoarthritis.

Objective: To test the performance of the 2015 ACR-EULAR gout classification criteria against presence of SF MSU crystals in a primary healthcare population. Methods: The criteria were applied to an existing dataset of consecutive patients with monoarthritis presenting to Dutch family physicians; all patients underwent microscopic SF analysis by design. The data had been prospectively collected to develop a diagnostic decision rule for gout in 2010. Diagnostic performance was assessed by calculating area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and constructing calibration plots for the full version of the criteria (including SF analysis results of all patients) and the clinical-only version (not including SF analysis results). Performance of both versions was compared with the 2010 diagnostic rule. Results: Of 381 patients enrolled into the study, 216 (57%) were MSU crystal-positive. The full and clinical-only versions of the criteria had satisfactory area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.96 and 0.87, respectively), high specificity (0.98 and 0.84), high PPV (0.98 and 0.84), but lower sensitivity (0.68 and 0.68) and NPV (0.70 and 0.67). Specificity and PPV of both versions were higher compared with 0.71 and 0.89 of the 2010 diagnostic decision rule. The decison rule had the highest sensitivity and NPV (0.99 and 0.97). Conclusion: This study presents the first external validation of the 2015 ACR-EULAR gout classification criteria in a primary healthcare setting. The criteria perform well in this setting in patients presenting with monoarthritis for the purpose of enrolling into gout clinical trials.

Gout and rheumatoid arthritis, both to keep in mind in cardiovascular risk management: A primary care retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess in one time window cardiovascular risks for both patients with gout and patients with rheumatoid arthritis in a Dutch primary care population. METHODS: Retrospective matched cohort study with data from the electronic health records of 51 Dutch general practices. Participants were patients aged 30 years or older with an incident diagnosis of gout (n=2655) or rheumatoid arthritis (n=513), and matched non-disease controls (n=7891 and n=1850 respectively). At disease incidence date, patients and controls were compared for prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, and prior cardiovascular diseases. Patients without prior cardiovascular disease were followed for a first cardiovascular disease, and compared to controls using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazard analyses. RESULTS: Compared to controls, gout patients suffered more from hypertension (44.8%), diabetes (20.1%), hypercholesterolemia (13.7%), and prior cardiovascular disease (30%) (P<0.01), whereas rheumatoid arthritis patients (hypertension 28.5%; diabetes 11.7%; hypercholesterolemia 7.4%; prior cardiovascular disease 11.3%) did not (P>0.05). After adjustment, both gout and rheumatoid arthritis patients without prior cardiovascular disease were more likely to get a cardiovascular disease: hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) 1.44 (1.18 to 1.76), and 2.06 (1.34 to 3.16) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This primary care study indicates that gout and rheumatoid arthritis are both independent risk factors for cardiovascular diseases, rheumatoid arthritis to some greater extent, whereas gout patients at first diagnosis had already an increased cardiovascular risk profile. It gives strong arguments for implementation of both rheumatic diseases in primary care guidelines on cardiovascular risk management.

Oral Prednisolone in the Treatment of Acute Gout: A Pragmatic, Multicenter, Double-Blind, Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Two recent double-blind, randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) showed that oral steroids and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs have similar analgesic effectiveness for management of gout, but the trials had small sample sizes and other methodological limitations. OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness and safety of oral prednisolone versus oral indomethacin in patients presenting to emergency departments (EDs) with acute gout. DESIGN: Multicenter, double-blind, randomized equivalence trial. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1 ratio) to receive either indomethacin or prednisolone. (ISRCTN registry number: ISRCTN45724113). SETTING: Four EDs in Hong Kong. PARTICIPANTS: 416 patients aged 18 years or older. MEASUREMENTS: Analgesic effectiveness was defined as changes in pain (at rest or with activity) greater than 13 mm on a 100-mm visual analogue scale. Outcomes were measured during the first 2 hours in the ED and from days 1 to 14. RESULTS: 376 patients completed the study. Equivalent and clinically significant within-group reductions in mean pain score were observed with indomethacin and prednisolone in the ED (approximately 10 mm [rest] and 20 mm [activity]) and from days 1 to 14 (approximately 25 mm [rest] and 45 mm [activity]). No major adverse events occurred during the study. During the ED phase, patients in the indomethacin group had more minor adverse events than those in the prednisolone group (19% vs. 6%; P < 0.001). During days 1 to 14, 37% of patients in each group had minor adverse events. LIMITATION: Diagnosis of gout was usually based on clinical criteria rather than examination of joint fluid. CONCLUSION: Oral prednisolone and indomethacin had similar analgesic effectiveness among patients with acute gout. Prednisolone is a safe, effective first-line option for treatment of acute gout. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Health and Health Services Research Grant Committee of the Hong Kong Government.

Knowledge, illness perceptions and stated clinical practice behaviour in management of gout: a mixed methods study in general practice.

The objective of the present study is to explore knowledge, illness perceptions and stated practice behaviour in relation to gout in primary care. This is a mixed methods study among 32 general practitioners (GPs). The quantitative assessment included the Gout Knowledge Questionnaire (GKQ; range 0-10; better) and Brief Illness Perceptions Questionnaire (BIPQ; nine items, range 0-10; stronger). Structured individual interviews obtained further qualitative insight into knowledge and perceptions, in the context of daily practice. Among 32 GPs, 18 (56.3 %) were male, mean age 44.4 years (SD 9.6) and mean working experience 17.1 years (SD 9.7). Median score [interquartile ranges (IQR)] on the GKQ was 7.8 [6.7-8.9] and 9.0 [8.0-10.0], when presented as open or multiple-choice questions, respectively. The BIPQ (median; [IQR]) revealed that gout was seen as a chronic disease (8.0; [7.0-9.0]), affecting life and emotions moderately (6.5; [5.0-7.0]), having many severe symptoms (8.0; [7.0-9.0]) and in which treatment could be very helpful (8.0; [7.0-9.0]). Further interviews revealed large variation in specific aspects of knowledge and about gaps concerning indications for uric acid-lowering therapy (UALT), duration of UALT, target serum uric acid (sUA) level or duration of prophylactic treatment. Finally, patients' adherence was not checked systematically. Specific knowledge gaps and discrepancies between perceptions and stated practice behaviour were identified, which might hamper effective management of this well-treatable disease. Improving evidence on the rationale and effectiveness of treatment targets and adherence interventions, tailoring guidelines to general practice and intensification of implementation of guidelines in primary health care seem to be needed.

2015 Gout classification criteria: an American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism collaborative initiative.

OBJECTIVE: Existing criteria for the classification of gout have suboptimal sensitivity and/or specificity, and were developed at a time when advanced imaging was not available. The current effort was undertaken to develop new classification criteria for gout. METHODS: An international group of investigators, supported by the American College of Rheumatology and the European League Against Rheumatism, conducted a systematic review of the literature on advanced imaging of gout, a diagnostic study in which the presence of monosodium urate monohydrate (MSU) crystals in synovial fluid or tophus was the gold standard, a ranking exercise of paper patient cases, and a multi-criterion decision analysis exercise. These data formed the basis for developing the classification criteria, which were tested in an independent data set. RESULTS: The entry criterion for the new classification criteria requires the occurrence of at least one episode of peripheral joint or bursal swelling, pain, or tenderness. The presence of MSU crystals in a symptomatic joint/bursa (ie, synovial fluid) or in a tophus is a sufficient criterion for classification of the subject as having gout, and does not require further scoring. The domains of the new classification criteria include clinical (pattern of joint/bursa involvement, characteristics and time course of symptomatic episodes), laboratory (serum urate, MSU-negative synovial fluid aspirate), and imaging (double-contour sign on ultrasound or urate on dual-energy CT, radiographic gout-related erosion). The sensitivity and specificity of the criteria are high (92% and 89%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The new classification criteria, developed using a data-driven and decision-analytic approach, have excellent performance characteristics and incorporate current state-of-the-art evidence regarding gout.

2015 Gout Classification Criteria: an American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism collaborative initiative.

OBJECTIVE: Existing criteria for the classification of gout have suboptimal sensitivity and/or specificity, and were developed at a time when advanced imaging was not available. The current effort was undertaken to develop new classification criteria for gout. METHODS: An international group of investigators, supported by the American College of Rheumatology and the European League Against Rheumatism, conducted a systematic review of the literature on advanced imaging of gout, a diagnostic study in which the presence of monosodium urate monohydrate (MSU) crystals in synovial fluid or tophus was the gold standard, a ranking exercise of paper patient cases, and a multicriterion decision analysis exercise. These data formed the basis for developing the classification criteria, which were tested in an independent data set. RESULTS: The entry criterion for the new classification criteria requires the occurrence of at least 1 episode of peripheral joint or bursal swelling, pain, or tenderness. The presence of MSU crystals in a symptomatic joint/bursa (i.e., synovial fluid) or in a tophus is a sufficient criterion for classification of the subject as having gout, and does not require further scoring. The domains of the new classification criteria include clinical (pattern of joint/bursa involvement, characteristics and time course of symptomatic episodes), laboratory (serum urate, MSU-negative synovial fluid aspirate), and imaging (double-contour sign on ultrasound or urate on dual-energy computed tomography, radiographic gout-related erosion). The sensitivity and specificity of the criteria are high (92% and 89%, respectively). CONCLUSION: The new classification criteria, developed using a data-driven and decision analytic approach, have excellent performance characteristics and incorporate current state-of-the-art evidence regarding gout.

Gout Is a Chronic Inflammatory Disease in Which High Levels of Interleukin-8 (CXCL8), Myeloid-Related Protein 8/Myeloid-Related Protein 14 Complex, and an Altered Proteome Are Associated With Diabetes Mellitus and Cardiovascular Disease.

OBJECTIVE: The frequent association of gout with metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease (CVD) suggests that it has a systemic component. Our objective was to study whether circulating proinflammatory cytokines are associated with comorbidities in gout patients. METHODS: We studied 330 gout patients from 3 independent cohorts and compared them with 144 healthy individuals and 276 disease controls. We measured circulating levels of interleukin-8 (IL-8)/CXCL8, IL-1ß, IL-6, IL-10, IL-12, and tumor necrosis factor, after which we performed proteome-wide analysis in a selection of samples to identify proteins that were possibly prognostic for the development of comorbidities. Replication analysis was performed specifically for myeloid-related protein 8 (MRP-8)/MRP-14 complex. RESULTS: Compared to healthy controls and disease control patients, patients with gouty arthritis (n = 48) had significantly higher mean levels of CXCL8 (P < 0.001), while other cytokines were almost undetectable. Similarly, patients with intercritical gout showed high levels of CXCL8. CXCL8 was independently associated with diabetes mellitus in patients with intercritical gout (P < 0.0001). Proteome-wide analysis in gouty arthritis (n = 18) and intercritical gout (n = 39) revealed MRP-8 and MRP-14 as the proteins with the greatest differential expression between low and high levels of CXCL8 and also showed a positive correlation of MRP8/MRP14 complex with CXCL8 levels (R(2) = 0.49, P < 0.001). These findings were replicated in an independent cohort. The proteome of gout patients with high levels of CXCL8 was associated with diabetes mellitus (odds ratio 16.5 [95% confidence interval 2.8-96.6]) and CVD (odds ratio 3.9 [95% confidence interval 1.0-15.3]). CONCLUSION: Circulating levels of CXCL8 are increased during both the acute and intercritical phases of gout, and they coincide with a specific circulating proteome that is associated with risk of diabetes mellitus and CVD. Further research focused on the roles of CXCL8 and MRP8/MRP14 complex in patients with gout is warranted.

The validation of a diagnostic rule for gout without joint fluid analysis: a prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: The gold standard for diagnosing gout is the identification of MSU crystals in joint fluid. In secondary care, the facilities or expertise to analyse joint fluid are not always available and gout is diagnosed clinically. To improve the predictive value of the clinical diagnosis of gout in secondary care, a diagnostic rule developed in primary care could be helpful. The aim of this study was to validate this diagnostic rule in a secondary care population with the gold standard as reference test. METHODS: Three hundred and ninety patients with monoarthritis were included. The variables of the diagnostic rule (male sex, previous arthritis attack, onset <1 day, joint redness, involvement of the first MTP joint, hypertension or one or more cardiovascular disease, and serum uric acid >5.88 mg/dl) were collected and scored. The affected joint was aspirated and joint fluid was analysed for the presence of MSU crystals. RESULTS: In 219 patients (56%) MSU crystals were found. The positive predictive value of a score of ≥8 points was 0.87, the negative predictive value of a score of ≤4 points was 0.95. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the diagnostic rule was 0.86 (95% CI 0.82, 0.89). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed that the difference between the expected and the observed probability was non-significant (P = 0.64), indicating good agreement. CONCLUSION: An easy-to-use diagnostic rule for gout developed in primary care shows good performance in secondary care and improves the predictive value of the clinical diagnosis of gout when joint fluid analysis is not available.

Arthritis of the first metatarsophalangeal joint is not always gout: a prospective cohort study in primary care patients.

OBJECTIVES: Arthritis of the first metatarsophalangeal joint has been considered pathognomonic for gout, but it is unknown how frequently other forms of arthritis occur in this joint. The aims were to determine the validity of the general practitioner's clinical diagnosis using joint fluid analysis as the reference test, the prevalence of other diagnoses than gout, and the signs and symptoms that discriminate between gout and non-gout patients. METHODS: This prospective cohort study comprised primary care patients with monoarthritis of the first metatarsophalangeal joint. After patient recruitment by general practitioners, patients' characteristics were collected by a rheumatologist. Joint fluid was analyzed for the presence of monosodium urate-crystals. If crystals were absent, patients entered a follow-up period of 6 years, or until a definite diagnosis. If during follow-up crystals were identified, the patient was classified as already having gout at baseline assessment. RESULTS: One hundred and fifty-nine primary care patients were included. At baseline the clinical diagnosis was gout in 98%. The positive and negative predictive values of the diagnosis of gout were 0.79 and 0.75, respectively. After follow-up 77% had gout, 8% had another rheumatic disease, and 15% had a transient unspecified monoarthritis. Gout patients had discriminating signs and symptoms from non-gout patients. CONCLUSIONS: Gout is an important but certainly not an exclusive cause of arthritis of the first metatarsophalangeal joint.

A case-control study of determinants for the occurrence of gouty arthritis in heart failure patients.

AIMS: Gouty arthritis is a frequent and disabling complication in heart failure patients. This study aimed to investigate which factors are associated with the occurrence of gouty arthritis in these patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: A case-control study was performed in heart failure patients (February 2007 to October 2009). Cases were defined as patients with gouty arthritis. Factors that are possibly associated with gouty arthritis and/or heart failure were evaluated. Echocardiographic dimensions and laboratory values including glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and fractional excretion of uric acid (FEUA) were measured. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for possibly associated factors. In total, 188 patients (59 with gouty arthritis) were included. Spironolactone use was associated with a decreased occurrence of gouty arthritis (OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.13-0.77). Independently associated with an increased occurrence of gouty arthritis were hypertensive heart failure (OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.6-8.2), New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III/IV (OR 4.5, 95% CI 1.8-11.0), lower GFR (P < 0.001), and FEUA <4% (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.4-7.9). Among the four age/gender groups, the strongest association with gouty arthritis was found in men <65 years. CONCLUSION: Our identification of factors that are associated with the occurrence of gouty arthritis makes it possible to develop strategies to improve further the quality of life in heart failure patients. The possible decreased occurrence of gouty arthritis in spironolactone users has to be confirmed in prospective studies.

Use of diuretics and the risk of gouty arthritis: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the literature investigating the relationship between use of diuretics and the risk of gouty arthritis. METHODS: PubMed (1950-October 2009), Embase (1974-October 2009), and the Cochrane Library (up to October 2009) were searched using keywords and MeSH terms diuretics, adverse effects, and gout. For this review, the technique of "best evidence synthesis" was used. Studies reporting frequency, absolute or relative risks, odds ratio, or rate ratio of gouty arthritis in diuretic users compared with nonusers were selected and evaluated. Studies had to be published in English. Checklists from the Dutch Cochrane Centre were used to assess the quality of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), cohort, and case-control studies. RESULTS: Two RCTs, 6 cohort studies, and 5 case-control studies met the inclusion criteria. The overall quality of the studies was moderate. In a RCT the rate ratio of gout for use of bendrofluazide vs placebo was 11.8 (95% CI 5.2-27.0). The other RCT found a rate ratio of 6.3 (95% CI 0.8-51) for use of hydrochlorothiazide plus triamterene vs placebo. Three cohort studies and 4 case-control studies found higher risks of gouty arthritis in users compared with nonusers of diuretics. CONCLUSIONS: There is a trend toward a higher risk for acute gouty arthritis attacks in patients on loop and thiazide diuretics, but the magnitude and independence is not consistent. Therefore, stopping these useful drugs in patients who develop gouty arthritis is not supported by the results of this review.

A diagnostic rule for acute gouty arthritis in primary care without joint fluid analysis.

BACKGROUND: Most cases of acute gouty arthritis are diagnosed in primary care and without joint fluid analysis in many instances. Our objectives were to estimate the validity of this diagnosis by family physicians and to develop a diagnostic rule. METHODS: Patients with monoarthritis recruited in an open Dutch population with gout by family physician diagnosis were enrolled in a diagnostic study (March 24, 2004, through July 14, 2007). Validity variables were estimated using 2 x 2 tables, with the presence of synovial monosodium urate crystals as the reference test. For development of the diagnostic rule, clinical variables (including the presence of synovial monosodium urate crystals) were collected within 24 hours. Statistically significant variables and predefined variables were separately entered in multivariate logistic regression models to predict the presence of synovial monosodium urate crystals. Diagnostic performance of the models was tested by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The most appropriate model was transformed to a clinically useful diagnostic rule. RESULTS: Three hundred twenty-eight patients were included in the study. The positive and negative predictive values of family physician diagnosis of gout were 0.64 and 0.87, respectively. The most appropriate model contained the following predefined variables: male sex, previous patient-reported arthritis attack, onset within 1 day, joint redness, first metatarsophalangeal joint (MTP1) involvement, hypertension or 1 or more cardiovascular diseases, and serum uric acid level exceeding 5.88 mg/dL (to convert serum uric acid level to micromoles per liter, multiply by 59.485). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for this model was 0.85 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.90). Performance did not change after transforming the regression coefficients to easy-to-use scores and was almost equal to that of the statistically optimal model (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.91). CONCLUSIONS: The validity of family physician diagnosis of acute gouty arthritis was moderate in this study. An easy-to-use diagnostic rule without joint fluid analysis was developed for their use.

Use of oral prednisolone or naproxen for the treatment of gout arthritis: a double-blind, randomised equivalence trial.

BACKGROUND: Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and colchicine used to treat gout arthritis have gastrointestinal, renal, and cardiovascular adverse effects. Systemic corticosteroids might be a beneficial alternative. We investigated equivalence of naproxen and prednisolone in primary care. METHODS: We did a randomised clinical trial to test equivalence of prednisolone and naproxen for the treatment of monoarticular gout. Primary-care patients with gout confirmed by presence of monosodium urate crystals were eligible. 120 patients were randomly assigned with computer-generated randomisation to receive either prednisolone (35 mg once a day; n=60) or naproxen (500 mg twice a day; n=60), for 5 days. Treatment was masked for both patients and physicians. The primary outcome was pain measured on a 100 mm visual analogue scale and the a priori margin for equivalence set at 10%. Analyses were done per protocol and by intention to treat. This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN14648181. FINDINGS: Data were incomplete for one patient in each treatment group, so per-protocol analyses included 59 patients in each group. After 90 h the reduction in the pain score was 44.7 mm and 46.0 mm for prednisolone and naproxen, respectively (difference 1.3 mm; 95% CI -9.8 to 7.1), suggesting equivalence. The difference in the size of change in pain was 1.57 mm (95% CI -8.65 to 11.78). Adverse effects were similar between groups, minor, and resolved by 3 week follow-up. INTERPRETATION: Oral prednisolone and naproxen are equally effective in the initial treatment of gout arthritis over 4 days.