Reductions in smoking due to ratification of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control in 171 countries.

Smoking globally kills over half of long-term smokers and causes about 7 million annual deaths. The World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) is the main global policy strategy to combat smoking, but its effectiveness is uncertain. Our interrupted time series analyses compared before- and after-FCTC trends in the numbers and prevalence of smokers below the age of 25 years (when smoking initiation occurs and during which response to interventions is greatest) and on cessation at 45-59 years (when quitting probably occurs) in 170 countries, excluding China. Contrasting the 10 years after FCTC ratification with the income-specific before-FCTC trends, we observed cumulative decreases of 15.5% (95% confidence interval = -33.2 to -0.7) for the numbers of current smokers and decreases of -7.5% (95% CI = -10.6 to -4.5) for the prevalence of smoking below age 25 years. The quit ratio (comparing the numbers of former and ever smokers) at 45-59 years increased by 1.8% (1.2 to 2.3) 10 years after FCTC ratification. Countries raising taxes by at least 10 percentage points concurrent with ratification observed steeper decreases in all three outcomes than countries that did not. Over a decade across 170 countries, the FCTC was associated with 24 million fewer young smokers and 2 million more quitters.

Taxation of tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages: reviewing the evidence and dispelling the myths.

The article reviews the large body of evidence on how taxation affects the consumption of tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). There is abundant evidence that demand for tobacco, alcohol, and SSB is price-responsive and that tax changes are quickly passed on to consumers. This suggests that taxes can be highly effective in changing consumption and reducing the burden of diseases associated with consuming these products. Tobacco, alcohol, and SSB industries oppose taxation on similar grounds, mostly on the regressivity of taxes since regressive taxes take a larger percentage of income from low income earners than from middle and high income earners; but also on the effects taxes might have on employment and economic activity; and, in the case of tobacco, the effects taxation has on illicit trade.Contrary to industry arguments, evidence shows that taxation may have short-term negative financial consequences for low-income households. However, medium and long-term financial benefits from reduced healthcare costs, better health, and welfare largely compensate for such consequences. Moreover, taxation does not negatively affect aggregate economic activity or employment, as consumers switch demand to other products that generate employment and may compensate for any employment loss in taxed sectors. Evidence also shows the revenues generated are generally spent on labour-intensive services. In the case of illicit trade in tobacco, evidence shows that illicit trade has not increased globally (rather the opposite) despite increases in tobacco taxes. Profit-maximising smugglers increase illicit cigarette prices along with the increases in licit cigarette prices. This implies that even when increased taxes divert some demand to the illicit market, they push prices up in the illicit market, discouraging consumption.

[Benefits of the cigarette tax in Mexico, by sex and income quintileBenefícios do imposto sobre cigarros no México: análise por sexo e quintil de renda]. / Beneficios del impuesto a los cigarros en México: análisis por sexo y quintil de ingreso.

Objective: Estimate economic and health benefits, by sex and income quintile, of tax-based cigarette price increases in Mexico. Methods: An extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) model was used to estimate distributional benefits for women and men in the scenario of a 44% increase in the price of cigarettes (from 56.4 Mexican pesos [MX$] to MX$81.2 per pack), as a result of tripling the current specific excise tax (from MX$0.49/cigarette to MX$1.49/cigarette). The model was calibrated with official national information sources. Results: With a tax increase of one peso per cigarette, about 1.5 million smokers would quit (351 300 women and 1.1 million men). This would prevent approximately 630 000 smoking-attributable premature deaths. Reducing the burden of disease would save the health sector close to MX$42.8 billion and prevent more than 250 000 people (including 50 200 women smokers) from falling into poverty. It would also result in an additional MX$16.2 billion in revenue per year, of which the lowest income quintile would contribute less than 3% (1% for low-income women). Conclusions: The tobacco epidemic has clearly differentiated patterns between women and men, reflecting a gender component. While the tobacco tax in Mexico would have great benefits with respect to the current state of the epidemic, this could also contribute to the broader goal of social justice by reducing gender inequities.

Objetivo: Estimar os benefícios econômicos e de saúde, por sexo e quintil de renda, do aumento dos preços dos cigarros por meio de impostos no México. Métodos: Com um modelo de análise ampliada de custo-efetividade (ECEA, na sigla em inglês), foram estimados os benefícios distributivos em mulheres e homens com um cenário de aumento de 44% no preço dos cigarros (de 56,4 pesos mexicanos [MX$] para MX$ 81,2 por maço), como resultado da triplicação do imposto específico atual (de MX$ 0,49/cigarro para MX$ 1,49/cigarro). O modelo foi calibrado com fontes oficiais de informação nacional. Resultados: Com o aumento do imposto de um MX$ por cigarro, cerca de 1,5 milhão de fumantes abandonariam o consumo (351.300 mulheres e 1,1 milhão de homens). Assim, seriam evitadas aproximadamente 630.000 mortes prematuras atribuíveis ao tabaco. A redução da carga de doenças permitiria uma economia para o setor da saúde de cerca de MX$ 42,8 bilhões e evitaria que mais de 250.000 pessoas (incluindo 50.200 mulheres fumantes) caíssem na pobreza. Além disso, seriam arrecadados MX$ 16,2 bilhões adicionais por ano, dos quais o quintil mais baixo contribuiria com menos de 3% (1% no caso de mulheres de baixa renda). Conclusões: A epidemia de tabagismo tem padrões claramente diferenciados entre mulheres e homens e reflete um componente de gênero. Embora os benefícios do imposto sobre o tabaco no México tenham importância relativa no atual estado da epidemia em cada caso, poderiam contribuir para um objetivo mais amplo de justiça social ao reduzir as desigualdades de gênero.

Beneficios del impuesto a los cigarros en México: análisis por sexo y quintil de ingreso

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. Estimar los beneficios económicos y en salud, por sexo y por quintil de ingreso, del incremento de los precios de los cigarros mediante impuestos en México. Métodos. Con un modelo de costo-efectividad extendido (ECEA, por su sigla en inglés) se estimaron los beneficios distributivos en mujeres y hombres con un escenario de incremento del precio de los cigarros de 44% (de 56,4 pesos mexicanos [MX$] a MX$81,2 por cajetilla), como resultado de triplicar el impuesto especí- fico actual (de MX$0,49/cigarro a MX$1,49/cigarro). El modelo se calibró con fuentes oficiales de información nacional Resultados. Con el incremento del impuesto de un peso por cigarro, cerca de 1,5 millones de fumadores abandonarían el consumo (351 300 mujeres y 1,1 millón de hombres). Así, se evitarían aproximadamente 630 000 muertes prematuras atribuibles al tabaco. La reducción de la carga de enfermedad permitiría ahorros para el sector salud cercanos a MX$42 800 millones y evitaría que más de 250 000 personas (entre ellas, 50 200 mujeres fumadoras) cayeran en situación de pobreza. Además, se recaudarían MX$16 200 millones adicionales por año, de los cuales el quintil más bajo aportaría menos de 3% (1% en el caso de las mujeres de menores ingresos). Conclusiones. La epidemia de tabaquismo tiene patrones claramente diferenciados entre mujeres y hom- bres y reflejan un componente de género. Si bien los beneficios del impuesto al tabaco en México tendrían magnitudes relativas al estado actual de la epidemia en cada caso, estos podrían contribuir a un objetivo más amplio de justicia social mediante la reducción de las inequidades de género.

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. Estimate economic and health benefits, by sex and income quintile, of tax-based cigarette price increases in Mexico. Methods. An extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) model was used to estimate distributional benefits for women and men in the scenario of a 44% increase in the price of cigarettes (from 56.4 Mexican pesos [MX$] to MX$81.2 per pack), as a result of tripling the current specific excise tax (from MX$0.49/cigarette to MX$1.49/cigarette). The model was calibrated with official national information sources. Results. With a tax increase of one peso per cigarette, about 1.5 million smokers would quit (351 300 women and 1.1 million men). This would prevent approximately 630 000 smoking-attributable premature deaths. Reducing the burden of disease would save the health sector close to MX$42.8 billion and prevent more than 250 000 people (including 50 200 women smokers) from falling into poverty. It would also result in an additional MX$16.2 billion in revenue per year, of which the lowest income quintile would contribute less than 3% (1% for low-income women). Conclusions. The tobacco epidemic has clearly differentiated patterns between women and men, reflecting a gender component. While the tobacco tax in Mexico would have great benefits with respect to the current state of the epidemic, this could also contribute to the broader goal of social justice by reducing gender inequities.

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Estimar os benefícios econômicos e de saúde, por sexo e quintil de renda, do aumento dos preços dos cigarros por meio de impostos no México. Métodos. Com um modelo de análise ampliada de custo-efetividade (ECEA, na sigla em inglês), foram esti- mados os benefícios distributivos em mulheres e homens com um cenário de aumento de 44% no preço dos cigarros (de 56,4 pesos mexicanos [MX$] para MX$ 81,2 por maço), como resultado da triplicação do imposto específico atual (de MX$ 0,49/cigarro para MX$ 1,49/cigarro). O modelo foi calibrado com fontes oficiais de informação nacional. Resultados. Com o aumento do imposto de um MX$ por cigarro, cerca de 1,5 milhão de fumantes abando- nariam o consumo (351.300 mulheres e 1,1 milhão de homens). Assim, seriam evitadas aproximadamente 630.000 mortes prematuras atribuíveis ao tabaco. A redução da carga de doenças permitiria uma economia para o setor da saúde de cerca de MX$ 42,8 bilhões e evitaria que mais de 250.000 pessoas (incluindo 50.200 mulheres fumantes) caíssem na pobreza. Além disso, seriam arrecadados MX$ 16,2 bilhões adicionais por ano, dos quais o quintil mais baixo contribuiria com menos de 3% (1% no caso de mulheres de baixa renda). Conclusões. A epidemia de tabagismo tem padrões claramente diferenciados entre mulheres e homens e reflete um componente de gênero. Embora os benefícios do imposto sobre o tabaco no México tenham impor- tância relativa no atual estado da epidemia em cada caso, poderiam contribuir para um objetivo mais amplo de justiça social ao reduzir as desigualdades de gênero.

Tobacco Taxes as the Unsung Hero: Impact of a Tax Increase on Advancing Sustainable Development in Colombia.

Objective: Tobacco taxes are a well-established cost-effective policy to prevent Noncommunicable Diseases. This paper evaluates the expected effects of a tobacco tax increase on the Sustainable Development Goals in Colombia. Methods: We use microsimulation to build an artificial society that mimics the observed characteristics of Colombia's population, and from there we simulate the behavioral response to a tax increase of COP$4,750 (an increase that has been discussed by policy makers and legislators) and the subsequent effects in all SDGs. Results: The tobacco tax hike reduces the number of smokers (from 4.51 to 3.45 MM smokers) and smoking intensity, resulting in a drop in the number of cigarettes smoked in Colombia (from 332.3 to 215.5 MM of 20-stick packs). Such reduction is expected to decrease premature mortality, healthcare costs, poverty and people facing catastrophic expenditure on healthcare, to increase health, income and gender equity, and to strengthen domestic resource mobilization even in the presence of illicit cigarettes. Conclusion: Tobacco taxes are an effective intervention for public health and a powerful instrument to advance on the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda. Relevance: A comprehensive analysis of the impact of tobacco taxes on all areas of Sustainable Development is missing in the empirical literature. Such perspective is needed to break the barriers for further tobacco tax increases by gathering wider societal support, especially from stakeholders and key decision makers from development areas other than health. SDG Nr: SDG3 (health), SDG 1 (no poverty), SDG 4 (education), SDG 5 (gender equality), SDG6 (water), SDG10 (inequality), SDG12 (responsible production and consumption), SDG17 (partnerships).

The distributional effects of tobacco tax increases across regions in Mexico: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have shown the beneficial effects of tobacco fiscal policy, but distributional effects have been less examined, especially at the subnational level. The objective of this study is to analyse the distributional effects of a one-peso tobacco tax increase (roughly equivalent to tripling the current excise tax) on health, poverty, and financial outcomes at the subnational level in Mexico. METHODS: We employ an extended cost-effectiveness analysis that estimates life-years gained, smoking attributable deaths averted, treatment costs averted, number of persons avoiding poverty and catastrophic health expenditures, and additional tax revenues by income group across five regions. RESULTS: With the one-peso tax increase (or 44% price increase), about 1.5 million smokers would quit smoking across the five regions, resulting in nearly 630 thousand premature deaths averted and 12.6 million life years gained. The bottom income quintile would gain three times more life years gains than the top quintile (ratio 3:1), and the largest gain for the most deprived would occur in the South (ratio 19:1), the region with the highest poverty incidence. Costs averted and additional tax revenues would reach 44.6 and 16.2 billion pesos, respectively. Moreover, 251 thousand individuals would avoid falling into poverty, including 53.2 in the lowest income quintile, and 563.9 thousand would avoid catastrophic health expenditures. Overall, the bottom income group would obtain 26% of the life years gained and 24% of the cost averted, while only paying 3% of the additional tax revenue. CONCLUSIONS: The most significant gains from a substantial cigarette price increase would be for the poorest 20%, especially in the South, the most impoverished region of Mexico. Therefore, tobacco taxes are an opportunity for governments to advance in equity and towards the achievement of sustainable development goals on non-communicable diseases.

Beneficios del impuesto a los cigarros en México: análisis por sexo y quintil de ingreso / Benefits of the cigarette tax in Mexico, by sex and income quintile / Benefícios do imposto sobre cigarros no México: análise por sexo e quintil de renda

RESUMEN Objetivo. Estimar los beneficios económicos y en salud, por sexo y por quintil de ingreso, del incremento de los precios de los cigarros mediante impuestos en México. Métodos. Con un modelo de costo-efectividad extendido (ECEA, por su sigla en inglés) se estimaron los beneficios distributivos en mujeres y hombres con un escenario de incremento del precio de los cigarros de 44% (de 56,4 pesos mexicanos [MX$] a MX$81,2 por cajetilla), como resultado de triplicar el impuesto específico actual (de MX$0,49/cigarro a MX$1,49/cigarro). El modelo se calibró con fuentes oficiales de información nacional Resultados. Con el incremento del impuesto de un peso por cigarro, cerca de 1,5 millones de fumadores abandonarían el consumo (351 300 mujeres y 1,1 millón de hombres). Así, se evitarían aproximadamente 630 000 muertes prematuras atribuibles al tabaco. La reducción de la carga de enfermedad permitiría ahorros para el sector salud cercanos a MX$42 800 millones y evitaría que más de 250 000 personas (entre ellas, 50 200 mujeres fumadoras) cayeran en situación de pobreza. Además, se recaudarían MX$16 200 millones adicionales por año, de los cuales el quintil más bajo aportaría menos de 3% (1% en el caso de las mujeres de menores ingresos). Conclusiones. La epidemia de tabaquismo tiene patrones claramente diferenciados entre mujeres y hombres y reflejan un componente de género. Si bien los beneficios del impuesto al tabaco en México tendrían magnitudes relativas al estado actual de la epidemia en cada caso, estos podrían contribuir a un objetivo más amplio de justicia social mediante la reducción de las inequidades de género.

ABSTRACT Objective. Estimate economic and health benefits, by sex and income quintile, of tax-based cigarette price increases in Mexico. Methods. An extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) model was used to estimate distributional benefits for women and men in the scenario of a 44% increase in the price of cigarettes (from 56.4 Mexican pesos [MX$] to MX$81.2 per pack), as a result of tripling the current specific excise tax (from MX$0.49/cigarette to MX$1.49/cigarette). The model was calibrated with official national information sources. Results. With a tax increase of one peso per cigarette, about 1.5 million smokers would quit (351 300 women and 1.1 million men). This would prevent approximately 630 000 smoking-attributable premature deaths. Reducing the burden of disease would save the health sector close to MX$42.8 billion and prevent more than 250 000 people (including 50 200 women smokers) from falling into poverty. It would also result in an additional MX$16.2 billion in revenue per year, of which the lowest income quintile would contribute less than 3% (1% for low-income women). Conclusions. The tobacco epidemic has clearly differentiated patterns between women and men, reflecting a gender component. While the tobacco tax in Mexico would have great benefits with respect to the current state of the epidemic, this could also contribute to the broader goal of social justice by reducing gender inequities.

RESUMO Objetivo. Estimar os benefícios econômicos e de saúde, por sexo e quintil de renda, do aumento dos preços dos cigarros por meio de impostos no México. Métodos. Com um modelo de análise ampliada de custo-efetividade (ECEA, na sigla em inglês), foram estimados os benefícios distributivos em mulheres e homens com um cenário de aumento de 44% no preço dos cigarros (de 56,4 pesos mexicanos [MX$] para MX$ 81,2 por maço), como resultado da triplicação do imposto específico atual (de MX$ 0,49/cigarro para MX$ 1,49/cigarro). O modelo foi calibrado com fontes oficiais de informação nacional. Resultados. Com o aumento do imposto de um MX$ por cigarro, cerca de 1,5 milhão de fumantes abandonariam o consumo (351.300 mulheres e 1,1 milhão de homens). Assim, seriam evitadas aproximadamente 630.000 mortes prematuras atribuíveis ao tabaco. A redução da carga de doenças permitiria uma economia para o setor da saúde de cerca de MX$ 42,8 bilhões e evitaria que mais de 250.000 pessoas (incluindo 50.200 mulheres fumantes) caíssem na pobreza. Além disso, seriam arrecadados MX$ 16,2 bilhões adicionais por ano, dos quais o quintil mais baixo contribuiria com menos de 3% (1% no caso de mulheres de baixa renda). Conclusões. A epidemia de tabagismo tem padrões claramente diferenciados entre mulheres e homens e reflete um componente de gênero. Embora os benefícios do imposto sobre o tabaco no México tenham importância relativa no atual estado da epidemia em cada caso, poderiam contribuir para um objetivo mais amplo de justiça social ao reduzir as desigualdades de gênero.

Geospatial, racial, and educational variation in firearm mortality in the USA, Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia, 1990-2015: a comparative analysis of vital statistics data.

BACKGROUND: Firearm mortality is a leading, and largely avoidable, cause of death in the USA, Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia. We aimed to assess the changes over time and demographic determinants of firearm deaths in these four countries between 1990 and 2015. METHODS: In this comparative analysis of firearm mortality, we examined national vital statistics data from 1990-2015 from four publicly available data repositories in the USA, Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia. We extracted medically-certified deaths and underlying population denominators to calculate the age-specific and sex-specific firearm deaths and the risk of firearm mortality at the national and subnational level, by education for all four countries, and by race or ethnicity for the USA and Brazil. Analyses were stratified by intent (homicide, suicide, unintentional, or undetermined). We quantified avoidable mortality for each country using the lowest number of subnational age-specific and period-specific death rates. FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2015, 106·3 million medically-certified deaths were recorded, including 2 472 000 firearm deaths, of which 851 000 occurred in the USA, 272 000 in Mexico, 855 000 in Brazil, and 494 000 in Colombia. Homicides accounted for most of the firearm deaths in Mexico (225 000 [82·7%]), Colombia (463 000 [93·8%]), and Brazil (766 000 [89·5%]). Suicide accounted for more than half of all firearm deaths in the USA (479 000 [56·3%]). In each country, firearm mortality was highest among men aged 15-34 years, accounting for up to half of the total risk of death in that age group. During the study period, firearm mortality risks increased in Mexico and Brazil but decreased in the USA and Colombia, with marked national and subnational geographical variation. Young men with low educational attainment were at increased risk of firearm homicide in all four countries, and in the USA and Brazil, black and brown men, respectively, were at the highest risk. The risk of firearm homicide was 14 times higher in black men in the USA aged 25-34 years with low educational attainment than comparably-educated white men (1·52% [99% CI 1·50-1·54] vs 0·11% [0·10-0·12]), and up to four times higher than in comparably-educated men in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. In the USA, the risk of firearm homicide was more than 30 times higher in black men with post-secondary education than comparably educated white men. If countries could achieve the same firearm mortality rates nationally as in their lowest-burden states, 1 777 800 firearm deaths at all ages and in both sexes could be avoided, including 1 028 000 deaths in men aged 15-34 years. INTERPRETATION: Firearm mortality in the USA, Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia is highest among young adult men, and is strongly associated with race and ethnicity, and low education levels. Reductions in firearm deaths would improve life expectancy, particularly for black men in the USA, and would reduce racial and educational disparities in mortality. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the University of Toronto Connaught Global Challenge.

Trends in cause-specific mortality among children aged 5-14 years from 2005 to 2016 in India, China, Brazil, and Mexico: an analysis of nationally representative mortality studies.

BACKGROUND: With global survival increasing for children younger than 5 years of age, attention is required to reduce the approximately 1 million deaths of children aged 5-14 years occurring every year. Causes of death at these ages remain poorly documented. We aimed to explore trends in mortality by causes of death in India, China, Brazil, and Mexico, which are home to about 40% of the world's children aged 5-14 years and experience more than 200 000 deaths annually at these ages. METHODS: We examined data on 244 401 deaths in children aged 5-14 years from four nationally representative data sources that obtained direct distributions of causes of death: the Indian Million Death Study, the Chinese Disease Surveillance Points, mortality data from the Mexican Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, and mortality data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. We present data on 12 main disease groups in all countries, with breakdown by communicable and nutritional diseases, non-communicable diseases, injuries, and ill-defined causes. To calculate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each cause, we applied the national cause of death distribution to the UN mortality envelopes for 2005-16 for each country. FINDINGS: Unlike Brazil, China, and Mexico, communicable diseases still account for nearly half of deaths in India in children aged 5-14 years (73 920 [46·1%] of 160 330 estimated deaths in 2016). In 2016, India had the highest death rates in nearly every category, including from communicable diseases. Fast declines among girls in communicable disease mortality narrowed the gap by 2016 with boys in India (32·6 deaths per 100 000 girls vs 26·2 per 100 000 boys) and China (1·7 vs 1·5). In China, injuries accounted for the greatest proportions of deaths (20 970 [53·2%] of 39 430 estimated deaths, in which drowning was a leading cause). The homicide death rate at ages 10-14 years was higher for boys than for girls in Brazil, increasing annually by an average of 0·7% (0·3-1·1). In India and China, the suicide death rates were higher for girls than for boys at ages 10-14 years. By contrast, in Mexico it was higher for boys than for girls, increasing annually by an average of 2·8% (2·0-3·6). Deaths from transport injuries, drowning, and cancer are common in all four countries, with transport accidents among the top three causes of death for both sexes in all countries, except for Indian girls, and cancer in the top three causes for both sexes in Mexico, Brazil, and China. INTERPRETATION: Most of the deaths that occurred between 2005 and 2016 in children aged 5-14 years in India, China, Brazil, and Mexico arose from preventable or treatable conditions. This age group is important for extending some of the global disease-specific targets developed for children younger than 5 years of age. Interventions to control non-communicable diseases and injuries and to strengthen cause of death reporting systems are also required. FUNDING: WHO and the University of Toronto Connaught Global Challenge.

Divergence and convergence in cause-specific premature adult mortality in Mexico and US Mexican Hispanics from 1995 to 2015: analyses of 4.9 million individual deaths.

Background: Mexicans and US Mexican Hispanics share modifiable determinants of premature mortality. We compared trends in mortality at ages 30-69 in Mexico and among US Mexican Hispanics from 1995 to 2015. Methods: We examined nationally representative statistics on 4.2 million Mexican and 0.7 million US deaths to examine cause-specific mortality. We used lung cancer indexed methods to estimate smoking-attributable deaths stratified by high and lower burden Mexican states. Results: In 1995-99, Mexican men had about 30% higher relative risk of death from all causes than US Mexican Hispanic men, and this difference nearly doubled to 58% by 2010-15. The divergence between Mexican and US Mexican Hispanic women over this time period was less marked. Among US Mexican Hispanics, declines in the risk of smoking-attributable death constituted about 25-30% of the declines in the overall risk of death. However, among Mexican men the declines in the risk of smoking-attributable deaths were offset by increases in causes of death not due to smoking. Homicide rates (mostly from guns) rose among men in Mexico from 2005 to 2010, but not among Mexican women or US Mexican Hispanic men or women. The probability at 30-69 years of death from cardiac disease diverged significantly between Mexicans and US Mexican Hispanics, reaching 10% and 5% for men, and 7% and 2% for women, respectively. Conclusions: Large differences in premature mortality between otherwise genetically and culturally similar groups arise from a few modifiable factors, most notably smoking, untreated diabetes and homicide.