Modeling the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccines on the spread of COVID-19.

The continuous mutation of SARS-CoV-2 opens the possibility of the appearance of new variants of the virus with important differences in its spreading characteristics, mortality rates, etc. On 14 December 2020, the United Kingdom reported a potentially more contagious coronavirus variant, present in that country, which is referred to as VOC 202012/01. On 18 December 2020, the South African government also announced the emergence of a new variant in a scenario similar to that of the UK, which is referred to as variant 501.V2. Another important milestone regarding this pandemic was the beginning, in December 2020, of vaccination campaigns in several countries. There are several vaccines, with different characteristics, developed by various laboratories and research centers. A natural question arises: what could be the impact of these variants and vaccines on the spread of COVID-19? Many models have been proposed to simulate the spread of COVID-19 but, to the best of our knowledge, none of them incorporates the effects of potential SARS-CoV-2 variants together with the vaccines in the spread of COVID-19. We develop here a θ - i j -SVEIHQRD mathematical model able to simulate the possible impact of this type of variants and of the vaccines, together with the main mechanisms influencing the disease spread. The model may be of interest for policy makers, as a tool to evaluate different possible future scenarios. We apply the model to the particular case of Italy (as an example of study case), showing different outcomes. We observe that the vaccines may reduce the infections, but they might not be enough for avoiding a new wave, with the current expected vaccination rates in that country, if the control measures are relaxed. Furthermore, a more contagious variant could increase significantly the cases, becoming the most common way of infection. We show how, even with the pandemic cases slowing down (with an effective reproduction number less than 1) and the disease seeming to be under control, the effective reproduction number of just the new variant may be greater than 1 and, eventually, the number of infections would increase towards a new disease wave. Therefore, a rigorous follow-up of the evolution of the number of infections with any potentially more dangerous new variant is of paramount importance at any stage of the pandemic.

A simple but complex enough θ -SIR type model to be used with COVID-19 real data. Application to the case of Italy.

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in China many models have appeared in the literature, trying to simulate its dynamics. Focusing on modeling the biological and sociological mechanisms which influence the disease spread, the basic reference example is the SIR model. However, it is too simple to be able to model those mechanisms (including the three main types of control measures: social distancing, contact tracing and health system measures) to fit real data and to simulate possible future scenarios. A question, then, arises: how much and how do we need to complexify a SIR model? We develop a θ -SEIHQRD model, which may be the simplest one satisfying the mentioned requirements for arbitrary territories and can be simplified in particular cases. We show its very good performance in the Italian case and study different future scenarios.

New opportunities at the next-generation neutrino experiments I: BSM neutrino physics and dark matter.

The combination of the high intensity proton beam facilities and massive detectors for precision measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters including the charge-parity violating (CPV) phase will open the door to help make beyond the standard model (BSM) physics reachable even in low energy regimes in the accelerator-based experiments. Large-mass detectors with highly precise tracking and energy measurements, excellent timing resolution, and low energy thresholds will enable the searches for BSM phenomena from cosmogenic origin, as well. Therefore, it is also conceivable that BSM topics in the next-generation neutrino experiments could be the dominant physics topics in the foreseeable future, as the precision of the neutrino oscillation parameter and CPV measurements continue to improve.This paper provides a review of the current landscape of BSM theory in neutrino experiments in two selected areas of the BSM topics-dark matter and neutrino related BSM-and summarizes the current results from existing neutrino experiments to set benchmarks for both theory and experiment. This paper then provides a review of upcoming neutrino experiments throughout the next 10 to 15 year time scale and their capabilities to set the foundation for potential reach in BSM physics in the two aforementioned themes. An important outcome of this paper is to ensure theoretical and simulation tools exist to carry out studies of these new areas of physics, from the first day of the experiments, such as Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment in the U.S. and Hyper-Kamiokande Experiment in Japan.

Erratum: First Dark Matter Constraints from a SuperCDMS Single-Charge Sensitive Detector [Phys. Rev. Lett. 121, 051301 (2018)].

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.121.051301.

First Dark Matter Constraints from a SuperCDMS Single-Charge Sensitive Detector.

We present the first limits on inelastic electron-scattering dark matter and dark photon absorption using a prototype SuperCDMS detector having a charge resolution of 0.1 electron-hole pairs (CDMS HVeV, a 0.93 g CDMS high-voltage device). These electron-recoil limits significantly improve experimental constraints on dark matter particles with masses as low as 1 MeV/c^{2}. We demonstrate a sensitivity to dark photons competitive with other leading approaches but using substantially less exposure (0.49 g d). These results demonstrate the scientific potential of phonon-mediated semiconductor detectors that are sensitive to single electronic excitations.

Results from the Super Cryogenic Dark Matter Search Experiment at Soudan.

We report the result of a blinded search for weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) using the majority of the SuperCDMS Soudan data set. With an exposure of 1690 kg d, a single candidate event is observed, consistent with expected backgrounds. This analysis (combined with previous Ge results) sets an upper limit on the spin-independent WIMP-nucleon cross section of 1.4×10^{-44} (1.0×10^{-44}) cm^{2} at 46 GeV/c^{2}. These results set the strongest limits for WIMP-germanium-nucleus interactions for masses >12 GeV/c^{2}.

Side effects of the calcineurin inhibitor, such as new-onset diabetes after kidney transplantation.

New-onset diabetes after transplantation (NODAT) is one of the frequent complications following kidney transplantation. Patients were randomized to receive cyclosporine A- or tacrolimus-based immunosuppression. Fasting and oral glucose tolerance tests were performed, and the patients were assigned to one of the following three groups based on the results: normal, impaired fasting glucose/impaired glucose tolerance (IFG/IGT), or NODAT. NODAT developed in 14% of patients receiving cyclosporine A-based immunosuppression and in 26% of patients taking tacrolimus (p = 0.0002). Albumin levels were similar, but uric acid level (p = 0.002) and the age of the recipient (p = 0.003) were significantly different comparing the diabetic and the normal groups. Evaluation of tissue samples revealed that acute cellular rejection (ACR) and interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy (IF/TA) were significantly different in the NODAT group. The pathological effect of new-onset diabetes after kidney transplantation can be detected in the morphology of the renal allograft earlier, before the development of any sign of functional impairment.

Early histopathological changes in new-onset diabetes after kidney transplantation.

BACKGROUND: New-onset diabetes after transplantation (NODAT) is one of the most common complications after kidney transplantation. METHODS: Patients were randomly assigned to receive cyclosporine A-based or tacrolimus-based immunosuppression. Fasting and oral glucose tolerance tests were performed, and the patients were assigned to one of the following 3 groups, on the basis of the results: normal, impaired fasting glucose/impaired glucose tolerance, or NODAT. NODAT developed in 14% of patients receiving cyclosporine A-based immunosuppression and in 26% of patients taking tacrolimus (P = .0002). RESULTS: Albumin levels were similar, but uric acid level (P = .002) and the age of the recipient (P = .003) were significantly different between the diabetic and the normal groups. Evaluation of tissue samples revealed that acute cellular rejection and interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy were significantly different in the NODAT group. Changes in the Banff score provided significant difference regarding tubulitis and interstitial inflammation (P = .05). CONCLUSIONS: The pathological effect of new-onset diabetes after kidney transplantation can be detected in the morphology of the renal allograft earlier, before the development of any sign of functional impairment.

Dominant position of colorectal cancer in Slovakia: the old-new problem for cancer control.

The development of colorectal cancer in former Czechoslovakia and its successor states is illustrated using recorded mortality and from 1968 incidence rates retrieved from National Cancer Registry of Slovakia. The relatively high mortality rates in Czechoslovakia around 1950 contrasted with rates seen in other countries of central, southern and particularly of eastern Europe and were more close to those recorded in affluent countries of western Europe and northern America. Despite continuous stabilisation and decrease of this cancer in high risk countries from late 1970s the unexpected and gradual rise of incidence rates of colorectal cancer was recorded in Slovakia. During the period studied incidence rates rose by an annual mean percent change of 4,2 and 2,8 in colon and 2,2 and 1,0 in rectal cancer in males and females respectively. Beginning with the year 1995 colorectal cancer is the most common cancer in this country in both genders together. Study of the development of colorectal cancer at the levels of subsites indicated the higher rates but decreasing proportion of rectal cancer and increasing proportion of cases occurring in proximal colon. The importance of this new priority in diagnostics, treatment and control programmes is stressed.

A case-control study of lifestyle and lung cancer associations by histological types.

The objective of the study was to investigate the contribution of dietary factors and physical exercise to the variation in the risk of lung cancer and its major histological types among men and women in the Czech Republic, and reveal interactions between smoking and diet/physical exercise, if any. In a hospital based case-control study, data collected by in-person interviews from 1096 microscopically confirmed lung cancer cases (587 women, 509 men) and 2966 controls were analyzed using unconditional logistic regression stratified by appropriate factors. Among all nonsmoking women protective effects were observed for black tea (OR=0.69), among all smoking women for wine (OR=0.71), physical exercise (OR=0.64) and vitamin supplements (OR=0.71). Among all men, inverse associations were found in smokers between lung cancer risk and frequent intake of fruits (OR=0.69) or moderate intake of spirits (OR=0.64), and a direct association for fat foods (OR=1.68). Comparing the effects of diet/physical activity on lung cancer risk among nonsmokers versus smokers, interactions with smoking appeared for the intake of black tea and milk/dairy products among women, and for moderate intake of spirits in men. When the effects of diet/physical exercise on risk were analyzed by major cell types in women, the intake of wine and physical exercise were inversely associated with the risk of both adenocarcinoma and small cell cancer, the intakes of fruits and vitamin supplements were inversely associated with the risk of squamous cell cancer. In men, the intake of fat foods was directly associated with the risk of squamous cell cancer, while the frequent intake of apples was inversely associated with the risk of both squamous- and small cell cancers. In men an inverse association with the risk of squamous cell cancer was found for the intake of other fruits. These data suggest that diet/physical exercise may affect the risk of lung cancer and major cell types, and that interactions between some dietary items and smoking may occur. Lung cancer is a multifactorial disease, since smoking, its main determinant, and other environmental and lifestyle factors interact with one another and with genetic factors to cause the disease.

Interactions between smoking and other exposures associated with lung cancer risk in women: diet and physical activity.

UNLABELLED: The objective of the study is to estimate the differences in the impact of diet and physical exercise on lung cancer risk in female nonsmokers vs. smokers, and reveal interactions, if any. In a hospital based case-control study, data collected by in-person interviews from 569 female lung cancer cases and 2120 controls were analyzed using unconditional logistic regression stratifying by appropriate factors. Protective effects were observed for intake of milk/dairy products (OR=0.57, 95%CI 0.35-0.94), vegetables (OR=0.60, 95%CI 0.40-0.91), apples (OR=0.69), wine (OR=0.77), and physical exercise (OR=0.59, 95%CI 0.42-0.83) among smokers only, while no similar effects were found among nonsmokers. In contrast, the intake of black tea was associated with a protective effect (OR=0.66, 95%CI 0.47-0.94) among nonsmokers only. Comparing the effects of dietary items and physical activity on lung cancer risk among nonsmokers versus smokers, statistically significant effect modifications were found for black tea (P 0.005), and milk/dairy products (P 0.047). Borderline effect modifications emerged for physical exercise (P 0.077). CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate protective effects of some components of healthful diet and physical exercise among smokers, and of the intake of black tea among nonsmokers. The observed interactions of the impact of black tea, milk/dairy products and physical activity upon lung cancer risk in women at different levels of the smoking habit deserve further studies.

Dietary habits and lung cancer risk among non-smoking women.

A case-control study was conducted to investigate the relationship between diet and the risk of lung cancer among women non-smokers and to compare with women smokers in the same population. Data collected by personal interviews from 435 microscopically confirmed cases and 1710 controls were analysed using unconditional logistic regression. In addition to results for all study subjects, associations between diet and lung cancer risk were compared between two highly contrasting groups: smokers (odds ratio (OR) 7.03) and non-smokers (OR 1.00). A protective effect of frequent (daily or several times per week) black tea drinking appeared among non-smoking women (OR 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.43-0.99). Among smoking women, protective effects were observed for frequent intake of milk/dairy products (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.32-0.96), coffee (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.25-0.88), and wine consumption (daily or weekly OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.37-0.98; monthly OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.39-0.94). Inverse associations with the risk appeared for physical exercise for smokers only, and for the body mass index both among non-smoking and smoking women. Some items of diet may contribute to variation in risk among women in the Czech Republic; their importance seems to vary in relation to their status in smoking, the dominant factor in the aetiology of lung cancer.

Increasing occurrence of urological cancers in Slovakia.

Similarly as in other developed countries of the world cancers of the upper and lower urinary tract are increasing also in Slovakia. Of greater importance are urological cancers in men participating recently worldwide with 17% on all newly diagnosed cancers. In women only 3% of all incident cases occur in urological sites. Data on incidence of urological cancers in the period 1968-1999 were derived from the National Cancer Registry, while those of mortality from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic. World standard population was used for the age-adjustment of both indicators. Temporal trends were evaluated using Poisson regression and computation of mean annual percent changes (MACP). Substantial and nearly parallel increase of incidence and of mortality has been observed for prostate cancer. Despite dramatic increase of testicular cancers incidence, corresponding mortality rates remained stable with the tendency to decrease recently. Incidence and mortality rates of urinary bladder cancer in men showed tendency to peaking while in women incidence increased and mortality showed tendency to stabilization. Incidence rates of kidney cancers increased in both sexes during the whole period, followed by slow increase of mortality at substantially lower levels. With the exception of mortality from testicular cancer all analyzed trends were statistically significant. In conclusion, only in the case of testicular cancer important reduction of mortality has been obtained despite dramatic increase of incidence. Reduction of smoking and improvement of industrial hygiene may influence the development of bladder cancer incidence and mortality. Limited resources for establishment of a concise cancer control program in this country do not allow to slow down in the near future the increase of incidence and mortality of prostate and kidneys cancers in Slovakia.

Lung cancer risk among nonsmoking women in relation to diet and physical activity.

To investigate the relationship between diet, physical activity, and the risk of lung cancer among female nonsmokers, and to compare it with female smokers in the same population, we conducted a case-control study. Data collected by personal interviews from 419 cases and 1593 controls were analyzed using unconditional logistic regression. As expected, among 130 nonsmoking cases, adenocarcinoma was the predominant cell type (49.2%), followed by squamous cell (20.2%) and small cell cancers (10.5%). The corresponding figures for 289 smoking cases were 29.3%, 27.5%, and 28.2%, respectively. Excess lung cancer risk was associated with consumption of red meat among nonsmokers (OR=2.20, 95%CI 1.07--4.51). Protective effects were observed for vegetables (OR=0.61, 95%CI 0.39--0.96), apples (OR=0.67, 95%CI 0.48--0.95), milk/dairy products (OR=0.54, 95%CI 0.32--0.93), coffee (OR=0.56, 95%CI 0.34--0.91), and wine (OR=0.69, 95%CI 0.49--0.98) among smokers only, and for black tea (OR=0.67, 95%CI 0.46--0.99) among nonsmokers only. An inverse association with risk emerged for physical exercise (or sport, walking), among smokers only. Some items of diet and physical activity appear to be important factors contributing to variation in lung cancer risk among women in the Czech Republic, however, their effects in nonsmokers may differ from those in smokers.

Lung cancer incidence rates by histologic type: an example of trends in Eastern Europe--Slovakia 1978-95.

During the period 1978-1995 43206 cases of lung cancer--37967 in men and 5239 in women--were recorded in Slovakia. Among 26240 microscopically confirmed cases in men squamous cell carcinomas were the most frequent (57.1%) followed by small cell carcinomas (18.3%) and adenocarcinomas (11.7%). In women from 3190 microscopically confirmed cases squamous cell carcinomas and adenocarcinomas had nearly the same frequency (31.9% and 32.2%, respectively), followed by small cell carcinomas (16.1%). In men after a marked increase of overall lung cancer incidence and mortality the rates started to flatten and even decline from the early 1990s. The main histologic types peaked in the late 1980s and declined thereafter but showed increase of percentage change when the rates at the beginning and the end of the studied period were compared; the highest one was marked for adenocarcinomas. The corresponding rates in women were much lower, but their increase was more pronounced than in men. Adenocarcinomas showed almost twofold increase in women during the first time-period of the study but after peaking in 1984-1986 they stabilized, while squamous cell carcinomas continued to increase also in recent years. The analysis of incidence rates by age groups showed that the initial increase and subsequent decrease of all microscopically confirmed cases in men as well as their gradual increase in women was influenced mainly by the trends of squamous cell carcinomas in younger age groups in men and in all age groups in women. Absence of higher increase and proportion of adenocarcinomas in Slovakia in both sexes could probably be explained by delayed introduction of filter tipped and low tar cigarettes.

Diet and the risk of lung cancer among women. A hospital-based case-control study.

Variation in diet has been suspected to be one of cofactors related to geographic variation in lung cancer risk, namely for women, or other population groups with a low exposure to cigarette smoking. The study has been designed to obtain more insight into possible associations between diet and lung cancer risk among women in a country with a Central European socioeconomic background. In a hospital-based case-control study personal interviews of 282 female lung cancer cases and 1120 female controls were done using a structured standard questionnaire. Cigarette smoking was the most important factor associated with excess risk for lung cancer among women. Significantly increased risk was found both among current smokers (OR = 9.22), and ex-smokers (OR = 7.11). Positive dose-response gradients (p < 0.001) were observed between lung cancer risk and the daily number of cigarettes, duration of smoking, and number of pack-years. For squamous-, small- and large-cell cancers combined, significant associations of lung cancer risk with the consumption of red meat and poultry (OR = 2.33, and OR = 8.67, respectively), and an inverse association with the consumption of vegetables (OR = 0.55) were found. No such variations in risk were observed for adenocarcinoma, including the bronchioalveolar cancer type. For all lung cancer types combined, coffee drinking showed a significant inverse association with lung cancer risk risk (OR = 0.66). While smoking is the major risk for lung cancer, diet may have a contributory role. Variations in the intake of some components of diet, namely red meat, poultry, vegetables, and coffee may contribute to understanding variations in the risk of lung cancer among Czech women.

[Idiopathic headaches in children and adolescents]. / Samoistne bóle glowy u dzieci i mlodziezy.

Author presents new epidemiological data in prevalence of headaches in children and adolescents. She precises tension headaches and pathogenesis of migraine and reminds difficulties in its differentiation. She points out to endothelin-1 importance in this process.

[Progress in tests for cavum septi pellucidi in children and adults]. / Rozwój badan nad torbiela przegrody przezroczystej u dzieci i doroslych.

Persistent cavum septi pellucidi (CSP) is a congenital anomaly of the midline, regarded as a marker of cerebral dysgenesis. It is more commonly encountered in patients with disturbances of intellectual development. Experimental data point to the role of CSP in memory and learning-related processes, and also to its association with disturbances of bioelectric activity of the brain. Various authors emphasize its occurrence in schizophrenia, various motor syndromes and some selective developmental deficits. Of a great significance in the better understanding of CSP will be the assessment of the bilateral brain bioelectric activity in children, as well as neuropsychological evaluation of the very patients at subsequent developmental stages. This will allow for a detailed assessment of their quality of life and neurodevelopmental problems, as well as for an early introduction of thus identified therapeutic management.

[Supplementary ultrasonometry of the fetus in evaluation of gestational age]. / Uzupelnienie ultrasonometrii plodu w ocenie wieku ciazowego.

The terminology quoted in the leaflet "Ultrasonometry of foetus in evaluation of gestational age" could change the diagnostic and therapeutic procedures in obstetrics from the point of view of only one out of many methods of imaging. The object of the study was to complement the "standards for eleven measurements pertinent to evaluation of pregnancy age and well-being of the foetus", in order to use them in compliance with the laws of auxology with recognize the priority of developmental age over the postmenstrual calendar age. Foetus is not a statistical patient, but an individual one, and it is not clinically important that, e.g. 15% of children are born at the foetal age of 38 or 41 weeks, but whether the examined foetus is born in either of the two weeks. Our complementation should be convincing about the great significance of ultrasonometry not of the foetus (as in the title of the publication in question), but of the foetuses in evaluation of their average gestational age, and about the necessity of reformulation of the published ultrasonomatric standarda, so as to render them clinically useful in regard of the foetuses of various gestational maturation rate.

[Video electroencephalography in seizure disorders of children]. / Videoelektroencefalografia w stanach napadowych u dzieci.

A total of 225 video-EEG examinations were performed in 179 children with various types of paroxysmal events, including 41 children aged 1-24 months of life and 138 patients aged 3-18 years. The studies were repeated in 25 patients; 80 one-hour recordings, 115 two-hour and 30 three-hour recordings were made. In selected cases EEG stimulating methods were employed, as well as tests provoking psychogenic events. In younger children video-EEG allowed confirming and more precise characterization of seizures in 19 of 41 patients (46.3%), whereas the corresponding number in older children was 17.4% (24 of 138 patients). In two children whose epilepsy was treated surgically, video-EEG was a significant element of preoperative diagnostic management. The use of the method allowed for diagnosing epileptic syndromes, Landau-Kleffner syndrome, reflex epilepsy, photogenic epilepsy and infant myoclonus epilepsy in 11 children. Video-EEG made it possible to rule out epilepsy in 3 of 41 younger children (7.3%) and in 24 of 138 older patients (17.4%). In 10 of 138 patients aged 12-17 years (7.3%), the method facilitated the diagnosis of psychic epilepsy, what allowed for initiation of an appropriate management without the administration of anti-epileptic drugs. In approximately one third of patients, video-EEG evaluation was helpful in selecting appropriate therapy.