Is heat wave a predictor of diarrhoea in Dhaka, Bangladesh? A time-series analysis in a South Asian tropical monsoon climate.

While numerous studies have assessed the association between temperature and diarrhoea in various locations, evidence of relationship between heat wave and diarrhoea is scarce. We defined elevated daily mean and maximum temperature over the 95th and 99th percentiles lasting for at least one day between March to October 1981-2010 as TAV95 and TAV99 and D95 and D99 heat wave, respectively. We investigated the association between heat wave and daily counts of hospitalisations for all-cause diarrhoea in Dhaka, Bangladesh using time series regression analysis employing constrained distributed lag-linear models. Effects were assessed for all ages and children aged under 5 years of age. Diarrhoea hospitalisation increased by 6.7% (95% CI: 4.6%- 8.9%), 8.3% (3.7-13.1), 7.0 (4.8-9.3) and 7.4 (3.1-11.9) in all ages on a TAV95, TAV99, D95 and D99 heat wave day, respectively. These effects were more pronounced for under-5 children with an increase of 13.9% (95% CI: 8.3-19.9), 24.2% (11.3-38.7), 17.0 (11.0-23.5) and 19.5 (7.7-32.6) in diarrhoea hospitalisations on a TAV95, TAV99, D95 and D99 heat wave day, respectively. At lags of 3 days, we noticed a negative association indicating a 'harvesting' effect. Our findings suggest that heat wave was a significant risk factor for diarrhoea hospitalisation in Dhaka. Further research is needed to elucidate the causal pathways and identify the preventive measures necessary to mitigate the impacts of heat waves on diarrhoea. Given that no heat wave definitions exist for Dhaka, these results may help to define heat waves for Dhaka and trigger public health interventions including heat alerts to prevent heat-related morbidity in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Impacts of climate change on diarrhoeal disease hospitalisations: How does the global warming targets of 1.5-2°C affect Dhaka, Bangladesh?

Dhaka is one of the world's densely populated cities and faces significant public health challenges including high burden of diarrhoeal diseases. Climate change is intensifying existing environmental problems including urban heat island effect and poor water quality. While numerous epidemiological studies have linked meteorological factors to diarrhoeal diseases in Bangladesh, assessment of the impacts of future climate change on diarrhoeal diseases is scarce. We provide the assessment of climate change impacts on diarrhoeal disease in Dhaka and project future health risks under climate change scenarios. About 3 million acute diarrhoea cases presenting to the Dhaka Hospital of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh (icddr,b) during 1981-2010 were linked to daily temperature, rainfall and humidity and association investigated using time series adapted negative binomial regression models employing constrained distributed lag linear models. The findings were applied to climate projections to estimate future risks of diarrhoea under various global warming scenarios. There was a significantly raised risk of diarrhoea hospitalisation in all ages with daily mean temperature (RR: 3.4, 95% CI: 3.0-3.7) after controlling for the confounding effects of heavy rainfall, humidity, autocorrelations, day of the week effect, long-term time, and seasonal trends. Using the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.034, temperature increases based on the global warming targets of 1.5-2°C could result in an increase of diarrhoea hospitalisations by 4.5-7.4% in all age groups by the 2100s. These effects were more pronounced among <5 children where the predicted temperature increases could raise diarrhoea hospitalisation by 5.7% - 9.4%. Diarrhoea hospitalisation will increase significantly in Dhaka even if the global warming targets adopted by the Paris Agreement is reached. This underscores the importance of preparing the city for management and prevention of diarrhoeal diseases.

Design, implementation and evaluation of a spiral module combining data science, digital health and evidence-based medicine in the undergraduate medical curriculum: A mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: Digital health, data science and health informatics are increasingly important in health and healthcare, but largely ignored in undergraduate medical training. METHODS: In a large UK medical school, with staff and students, we co-designed a new, 'spiral' module (with iterative revisiting of content), covering data science, digital health and evidence-based medicine, implementing in September 2019 in all year groups with continuous evaluation and improvement until 2022. RESULTS: In 2018/19, a new module, 'Doctor as Data Scientist', was co-designed by academic staff (n = 14), students (n = 23), and doctors (n = 7). The module involves 22 staff, 120 h (43 sessions: 22 lectures, 15 group and six other) over a 5-year curriculum. Since September 2019, 5,200 students have been taught with good attendance. Module student satisfaction ratings were 92%, 84%, 84% and 81% in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively, compared to the overall course (81%). CONCLUSIONS: We designed, implemented and evaluated a new undergraduate medical curriculum that combined data science and digital health with high student satisfaction ratings.

Association of age at antiretroviral therapy initiation with CD4 +  : CD8 + ratio recovery among virally suppressed people with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of age at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation with CD4 +  : CD8 + T-cell ratio in virally suppressed people with HIV on long-term ART, and to characterize potential CD4 +  : CD8 + ratio recovery in this population by age. DESIGN: A longitudinal study of people attending an HIV clinic at the Royal Free Hospital NHS Trust, London, who initiated ART between 2001 and 2015, and achieved and maintained HIV-1 viral suppression (viral load <1,000 copies/ml). The association of age group at ART initiation with CD4 +  : CD8 + ratio at 5 and 10 years was assessed. METHODS: Multivariable linear regression was used to investigate the relationship between age at ART initiation and log CD4 +  : CD8 + ratio, adjusting for demographic factors (gender/HIV transmission route, ethnicity), baseline CD4 + count and calendar year. RESULTS: The sample included 1859 people aged 20-78 (75% men, 56% white ethnicity). Overall, median CD4 +  : CD8 + T-cell ratio increased from 0.24 at baseline to 0.77 at year 5 and 0.88 at year 10. Ratios increased among all age groups in unadjusted and adjusted models but increased less among older ages (baseline ages 60-69 and 70-79). Median ratios at year 5 were 0.85, 0.80, 0.72, 0.76, 0.6, and 0.44, respectively, among people aged 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69 and 70-79 years at baseline. CONCLUSION: In a virally suppressed London population, age had a substantial impact on CD4 +  : CD8 + ratio recovery, especially for those starting ART after age 60 years. Results may indicate the level of CD4 +  : CD8 + ratio recovery possible in an HIV-positive, virally suppressed, aging population.

The effect of combination prevention strategies on HIV incidence among gay and bisexual men who have sex with men in the UK: a model-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: In the UK, the number of new HIV diagnoses among gay and bisexual men who have sex with men (GBMSM) has decreased substantially. We aimed to understand the contribution of different interventions in reducing HIV incidence so far; to estimate future HIV incidence with continuation of current policies and with further scaling up of current interventions; and to estimate the maximum additional annual cost that should be spent towards these interventions for them to offer value for money. METHODS: We calibrated a dynamic, individual-based, stochastic simulation model, the HIV Synthesis Model, to multiple sources of data on HIV among GBMSM aged 15 years or older in the UK. Primarily these were routine HIV surveillance data collected by the UK Health Security Agency. We compared HIV incidence in 2022 with the counterfactual incidence: if HIV testing rates stopped increasing in 2012 and the policy of antiretroviral therapy (ART) at diagnosis was not introduced in mid-2015; if pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) was not introduced; if condom use was low from 2012 in all GBMSM, at levels similar to those observed in 1980; and in the first and second scenario combined. We also projected future outcomes under the assumption of continuation of current policies and considering increases in PrEP and HIV testing uptake and a decrease in condomless sex. FINDINGS: Our model estimated a 77% (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 61-88) decline in HIV incidence since around 2014, with an estimated 597 infections ([90% UI 312-956]; 1·1 per 1000 person-years [90% UI 0·6-1·8]) in men aged 15-64 years in 2022. Both PrEP introduction and increased HIV testing with ART initiation at diagnosis each had a substantial effect on HIV incidence. Without PrEP introduction, we estimate there would have been 2·16 times the number of infections that actually occurred (90% UI 1·06-3·75) between 2012 and 2022; without increased HIV testing and ART initiation at diagnosis there would have been 2·18 times the number of infections that actually occurred (1·18-3·60), and if condomless sex was at the levels before the HIV epidemic, there would have been 2·27 times the number of infections that actually occurred (0·9-5·4). If rates of testing, ART use, and PrEP use remain as they are currently, there is a predicted decline in incidence to 388 HIV infections in 2025 (90% UI 226-650) and to 263 (137-433) in 2030. Increases in HIV testing and PrEP use were predicted to accelerate the decline in HIV incidence. Given the quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) benefit and a cost-effectiveness threshold of £30 000 per QALY gained, in order to be cost-effective an additional £1·62 million could be spent per year to increase testing levels by 34% (90% UI 25-46) and PrEP use by 55% (10-107). To achieve that, a 16% reduction in the cost of delivery of testing and PrEP would be required. INTERPRETATION: Combination prevention, including a PrEP strategy, played a major role in the reduction in HIV incidence observed so far in the UK among GBMSM. Continuation of current activities should lead to a continued decline; however, it is unlikely to lead to reaching the target of fewer than 50 HIV infections per year among GBMSM by 2030. It will be important to reduce costs for testing and PrEP for their continued expansion to be cost-effective. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research under its Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme and Medical Research Council-UK Research and Innovation.

All-cause hospitalisation among people living with HIV according to gender, mode of HIV acquisition, ethnicity, and geographical origin in Europe and North America: findings from the ART-CC cohort collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Understanding demographic disparities in hospitalisation is crucial for the identification of vulnerable populations, interventions, and resource planning. METHODS: Data were from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) on people living with HIV in Europe and North America, followed up between January, 2007 and December, 2020. We investigated differences in all-cause hospitalisation according to gender and mode of HIV acquisition, ethnicity, and combined geographical origin and ethnicity, in people living with HIV on modern combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Analyses were performed separately for European and North American cohorts. Hospitalisation rates were assessed using negative binomial multilevel regression, adjusted for age, time since cART intitiaion, and calendar year. FINDINGS: Among 23 594 people living with HIV in Europe and 9612 in North America, hospitalisation rates per 100 person-years were 16·2 (95% CI 16·0-16·4) and 13·1 (12·8-13·5). Compared with gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men, rates were higher for heterosexual men and women, and much higher for men and women who acquired HIV through injection drug use (adjusted incidence rate ratios ranged from 1·2 to 2·5 in Europe and from 1·2 to 3·3 in North America). In both regions, individuals with geographical origin other than the region of study generally had lower hospitalisation rates compared with those with geographical origin of the study country. In North America, Indigenous people and Black or African American individuals had higher rates than White individuals (adjusted incidence rate ratios 1·9 and 1·2), whereas Asian and Hispanic people living with HIV had somewhat lower rates. In Europe there was a lower rate in Asian individuals compared with White individuals. INTERPRETATION: Substantial disparities exist in all-cause hospitalisation between demographic groups of people living with HIV in the current cART era in high-income settings, highlighting the need for targeted support. FUNDING: Royal Free Charity and the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.

Behaviour changes following HIV diagnosis among men who have sex with men in the era of treatment as prevention: data from a prospective study.

We described the longitudinal changes in sexual behaviour and associated factors among newly diagnosed with HIV men who have sex with men participating in a prospective observational study from a London HIV clinic (2015-2018). Participants self-completed questionnaires at baseline, months 3 and 12. Information collected included socio-demographic, sexual behaviour, health, lifestyle and social support. Trends in sexual behaviours over one year following diagnosis and associated factors were assessed using generalized estimating equations with logit link. Condomless sex (CLS) dropped from 62.2% at baseline to 47.6% at month-three but increased again to 61.8% at month-12 (p-trend = 0.790). Serodiscordant-CLS increased between month-three and month-12 (from 13.1% to 35.6%, p-trend < 0.001). The prevalence of serodiscordant-CLS with high risk of transmitting to their partners at month-three was 10.7%. CLS was higher among men who reported recreational drug use (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 3.03, 95%CI 1.47-6.24, p = 0.003), those with undetectable viral load (aOR 2.17, 95%CI 1.22-3.84, p = 0.008) and those who agreed with a statement "condoms are not necessary when HIV viral load is undetectable" (aOR 3.41, 95%CI 1.58-7.38, p = 0.002). MSM continued to engage in CLS after HIV diagnosis, which coincided with U = U publications and increased throughout the study.

Estimating the hospital costs of care for people living with HIV in England using routinely collected data.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the health care activity and associated hospital costs of caring for people living with HIV is an important component of assessing the cost effectiveness of new technologies and for budget planning. METHODS: Data collected between 2010 and 2017 from an English HIV treatment centre were combined with national reference costs to estimate the rate of hospital attendances and costs per quarter year, according to demographic and clinical factors. The final dataset included records for 1763 people living with HIV, which was analysed using negative binomial regression models and general estimating equations. RESULTS: People living with HIV experienced an unadjusted average of 0.028 (standard deviation [SD] 0.20) inpatient episodes per quarter, equivalent to one every 9 years, and 1.85 (SD 2.30) outpatient visits per quarter. The unadjusted mean quarterly cost per person with HIV (excluding antiretroviral drug costs) was £439 (SD 604). Outpatient appointments and inpatient episodes accounted for 88% and 6% of total costs, respectively. In adjusted models, low CD4 count was the strongest predictor of inpatient stays and outpatient visits. Low CD4 count and new patient status (having a first visit at the Trust in the last 6 months) were the factors that most increased estimated costs. Associations were weaker or less consistent for demographic factors (age, sex/sexual orientation/ethnicity). Sensitivity analyses suggest that the findings were generally robust to alternative parameter and modelling assumptions. CONCLUSION: A number of factors predicted hospital activity and costs, but CD4 cell count and new patient status were the strongest. The study results can be incorporated into future economic evaluations and budget impact assessments of HIV-related technologies.

Understanding experiences of potential harm among MSM (cis and trans) using HIV self-testing in the SELPHI randomised controlled trial in England and Wales: a mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: The potential of HIV self-testing (HIVST) to cause harm is a concern hindering widespread implementation. The aim of this paper is to understand the relationship between HIVST and harm in SELPHI (An HIV Self-testing Public Health Intervention), the largest randomised trial of HIVST in a high-income country to date. METHODS: 10 111 cis and trans men who have sex with men (MSM) recruited online (geolocation social/sexual networking apps, social media), aged 16+, reporting previous anal intercourse and resident in England or Wales were first randomised 60/40 to baseline HIVST (baseline testing, BT) or not (no baseline testing, nBT) (randomisation A). BT participants reporting negative baseline test, sexual risk at 3 months and interest in further HIVST were randomised to three-monthly HIVST (repeat testing, RT) or not (no repeat testing, nRT) (randomisation B). All received an exit survey collecting data on harms (to relationships, well-being, false results or being pressured/persuaded to test). Nine participants reporting harm were interviewed in-depth about their experiences in an exploratory substudy; qualitative data were analysed narratively. RESULTS: Baseline: predominantly cis MSM, 90% white, 88% gay, 47% university educated and 7% current/former pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users. Final survey response rate was: nBT=26% (1056/4062), BT=45% (1674/3741), nRT=41% (471/1147), RT=50% (581/1161).Harms were rare and reported by 4% (n=138/3691) in exit surveys, with an additional two false positive results captured in other study surveys. 1% reported harm to relationships and to well-being in BT, nRT and RT combined. In all arms combined, being pressured or persuaded to test was reported by 1% (n=54/3678) and false positive results in 0.7% (n=34/4665).Qualitative analysis revealed harms arose from the kit itself (technological harms), the intervention (intervention harms) or from the social context of the participant (socially emergent harms). Intervention and socially emergent harms did not reduce HIVST acceptability, whereas technological harms did. DISCUSSION: HIVST harms were rare but strategies to link individuals experiencing harms with psychosocial support should be considered for HIVST scale-up. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN20312003.

Predictors of starting and stopping chemsex in men who have sex with men in England: findings from the AURAH2 prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Chemsex (the use of psychoactive drugs in sexual contexts) has been associated with HIV acquisition and other STIs, so there is benefit in identifying those most likely to start chemsex to offer risk reduction interventions such as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). To date, there have been no data from a longitudinal study analysing factors most associated with starting and stopping chemsex. METHODS: The prospective cohort study, Attitudes to and Understanding Risk of Acquisition of HIV over Time (AURAH2), collected 4 monthly and annual online questionnaire data from men who have sex with men (MSM) from 2015 to 2018. We investigate the association of sociodemographic factors, sexual behaviours and drug use with starting and stopping chemsex among 622 men who completed at least one follow-up questionnaire. Poisson models with generalised estimating equations were used to produce risk ratios (RRs) accounting for multiple starting or stopping episodes from the same individual. Multivariable analysis was adjusted for age group, ethnicity, sexual identity and university education. FINDINGS: In the multivariable analysis, the under 40 age group was significantly more likely to start chemsex by the next assessment (RR 1.79, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.86). Other factors which showed significant association with starting chemsex were unemployment (RR 2.10, 95% CI 1.02 to 4.35), smoking (RR 2.49, 95% CI 1.63 to 3.79), recent condomless sex (CLS), recent STI and postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) use in the past year (RR 2.10, 95% CI 1.33 to 3.30). Age over 40 (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.99), CLS, and use of PEP (RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.86) and PrEP (RR 0.47, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.78) were associated with lower likelihood of stopping chemsex by the next assessment. INTERPRETATION: Knowledge of these results allows us to identify men most likely to start chemsex, thus providing an opportunity for sexual health services to intervene with a package of risk mitigation measures, especially PrEP use.

Life expectancy after 2015 of adults with HIV on long-term antiretroviral therapy in Europe and North America: a collaborative analysis of cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: The life expectancy of people with HIV taking antiretroviral therapy (ART) has increased substantially over the past 25 years. Most previous studies of life expectancy were based on data from the first few years after starting ART, when mortality is highest. However, many people with HIV have been successfully treated with ART for many years, and up-to-date prognosis data are needed. We aimed to estimate life expectancy in adults with HIV on ART for at least 1 year in Europe and North America from 2015 onwards. METHODS: We used data for people with HIV taking ART from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration and the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort Study. Included participants started ART between 1996 and 2014 and had been on ART for at least 1 year by 2015, or started ART between 2015 and 2019 and survived for at least 1 year; all participants were aged at least 16 years at ART initiation. We used Poisson models to estimate the associations between mortality and demographic and clinical characteristics, including CD4 cell count at the start of follow-up. We also estimated the remaining years of life left for people with HIV aged 40 years who were taking ART, and stratified these estimates by variables associated with mortality. These estimates were compared with estimates for years of life remaining in a corresponding multi-country general population. FINDINGS: Among 206 891 people with HIV included, 5780 deaths were recorded since 2015. We estimated that women with HIV at age 40 years had 35·8 years (95% CI 35·2-36·4) of life left if they started ART before 2015, and 39·0 years (38·5-39·5) left if they started ART after 2015. For men with HIV, the corresponding estimates were 34·5 years (33·8-35·2) and 37·0 (36·5-37·6). Women with CD4 counts of fewer than 49 cells per µL at the start of follow-up had an estimated 19·4 years (18·2-20·5) of life left at age 40 years if they started ART before 2015 and 24·9 years (23·9-25·9) left if they started ART after 2015. The corresponding estimates for men were 18·2 years (17·1-19·4) and 23·7 years (22·7-24·8). Women with CD4 counts of at least 500 cells per µL at the start of follow-up had an estimated 40·2 years (39·7-40·6) of life left at age 40 years if they started ART before 2015 and 42·0 years (41·7-42·3) left if they started ART after 2015. The corresponding estimates for men were 38·0 years (37·5-38·5) and 39·2 years (38·7-39·7). INTERPRETATION: For people with HIV on ART and with high CD4 cell counts who survived to 2015 or started ART after 2015, life expectancy was only a few years lower than that in the general population, irrespective of when ART was started. However, for people with low CD4 counts at the start of follow-up, life-expectancy estimates were substantially lower, emphasising the continuing importance of early diagnosis and sustained treatment of HIV. FUNDING: US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism and UK Medical Research Council.

Free HIV self-test for identification and linkage to care of previously undetected HIV infection in men who have sex with men in England and Wales (SELPHI): an open-label, internet-based, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: High levels of HIV testing in men who have sex with men remain key to reducing the incidence of HIV. We aimed to assess whether the offer of a single, free HIV self-testing kit led to increased HIV diagnoses with linkage to care. METHODS: SELPHI was an internet-based, open-label, randomised controlled trial that recruited participants via sexual and social networking sites. Eligibility criteria included being a man or trans woman (although trans women are reported separately); being resident in England or Wales, UK; being aged 16 years or older; having had anal intercourse with a man; not having a positive HIV diagnosis; and being willing to provide name, email address, date of birth, and consent to link to national HIV databases. Participants were randomly allocated (3:2) by computer-generated number sequence to receive a free HIV self-test kit (BT group) or to not receive this free kit (nBT group). Online surveys collected data at baseline, 2 weeks after enrolment (BT group only), 3 months after enrolment, and at the end of the study. The primary outcome was confirmed (linked to care) new HIV diagnosis within 3 months of enrolment, analysed by intention to treat. Those assessing the primary outcome were masked to allocation. This study is registered with the ISRCTN Clinical Trials Register, number ISRCTN20312003. FINDINGS: 10 111 participants (6049 in BT group and 4062 in nBT group) enrolled between Feb 16, 2017, and March 1, 2018. The median age of participants was 33 years (IQR 26-44 years); 9000 (89%) participants were White; 8118 (80%) participants were born in the UK; 81 (1%) participants were transgender men; 4706 (47%) participants were university educated; 1537 (15%) participants had never been tested for HIV; and 389 (4%) participants were taking pre-exposure prophylaxis. At enrolment, 7282 (72%) participants reported condomless anal sex with at least one male partner in the previous 3 months. In the BT group, of the 4511 participants for whom HIV testing information was available, 4263 (95%) reported having used the free HIV self-test kit within 3 months.Within 3 months of enrolment there were 19 confirmed new HIV diagnoses (0·31%) in 6049 participants in the BT group and 15 (0·37%) of 4062 in the nBT group (p=0·64). INTERPRETATION: The offer of a single, free HIV self-test did not lead to increased rates of new HIV diagnoses, which could reflect decreasing HIV incidence rates in the UK. Nonetheless, the offer of a free HIV self-testing kit resulted in high HIV testing rates, indicating that self-testing is an attractive testing option for a large group of men who have sex with men. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing HIV acquisition and transmission among gay and bisexual men who have sex with men (GBMSM) in high income settings: A systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: HIV transmission continues among gay and bisexual men who have sex with men (GBMSM), with those who are younger, or recent migrants, or of minority ethnicity or who are gender diverse remaining at increased risk. We aimed to identify and describe recent studies evaluating the effectiveness of HIV prevention interventions for GBMSM in high income countries. METHODS: We searched ten electronic databases for randomized controlled trials (RCTs), conducted in high income settings, and published since 2013 to update a previous systematic review (Stromdahl et al, 2015). We predefined four outcome measures of interest: 1) HIV incidence 2) STI incidence 3) condomless anal intercourse (CLAI) (or measure of CLAI) and 4) number of sexual partners. We used the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (UK) Quality Appraisal of Intervention Studies tool to assess the quality of papers included in the review. As the trials contained a range of effect measures (e.g. odds ratio, risk difference) comparing the arms in the RCTs, we converted them into standardized effect sizes (SES) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We identified 39 original papers reporting 37 studies. Five intervention types were identified: one-to-one counselling (15 papers), group interventions (7 papers), online interventions (9 papers), Contingency Management for substance use (2 papers) and Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) (6 papers). The quality of the studies was mixed with over a third of studies rated as high quality and 11% rated as poor quality. There was some evidence that one-to-one counselling, group interventions (4-10 participants per group) and online (individual) interventions could be effective for reducing HIV transmission risk behaviours such as condomless anal intercourse. PrEP was the only intervention that was consistently effective at reducing HIV incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Our systematic review of the recent evidence that we were able to analyse indicates that PrEP is the most effective intervention for reducing HIV acquisition among GBMSM. Targeted and culturally tailored behavioural interventions for sub-populations of GBMSM vulnerable to HIV infection and other STIs should also be considered, particularly for GBMSM who cannot access or decline to use PrEP.

Alcohol, smoking, recreational drug use and association with virological outcomes among people living with HIV: cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses.

OBJECTIVES: There is increasing evidence to suggest that people living with HIV (PLWH) have significant morbidity from alcohol, recreational drug use and cigarette smoking. Our aim was to report associations of these factors with antiretroviral therapy (ART) non-adherence, viral non-suppression and subsequent viral rebound in PLWH. METHODS: The Antiretroviral Sexual Transmission Risk and Attitudes (ASTRA) study recruited PLWH attending eight outpatient clinics in England between February 2011 and December 2012. Data included self-reported excessive drinking (estimated consumption of > 20 units of alcohol/week), alcohol dependency (CAGE score ≥ 2 with current alcohol consumption), recreational drug use (including injection drug use in the past 3 months), and smoking status. Among participants established on ART, cross-sectional associations with ART non-adherence [missing ≥2 consecutive days of ART on ≥2 occasions in the past three months] and viral-non suppression [viral load (VL) > 50 copies/mL] were assessed using logistic regression. In participants from one centre, longitudinal associations with subsequent viral rebound (first VL > 200 copies/mL) in those on ART with VL ≤ 50 copies/mL at baseline were assessed using Cox regression during a 7-year follow-up. RESULTS: Among 3258 PLWH, 2248 (69.0%) were men who have sex with men, 373 (11.4%) were heterosexual men, and 637 (19.6%) were women. A CAGE score ≥ 2 was found in 568 (17.6%) participants, 325 (10.1%) drank > 20 units/week, 1011 (31.5%) currently smoked, 1242 (38.1%) used recreational drugs and 74 (2.3%) reported injection drug use. In each case, prevalence was much more common among men than among women. Among 2459 people on ART who started at least 6 months previously, a CAGE score ≥ 2, drinking > 20 units per week, current smoking, injection and non-injection drug use were all associated with ART non-adherence. After adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic factors, CAGE score ≥ 2 [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.52, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09-2.13], current smoking (aOR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.10-2.17) and injection drug use (aOR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.00-4.47) were associated with viral non-suppression. During follow-up of a subset of 592 people virally suppressed at recruitment, a CAGE score ≥ 2 [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.66, 95% CI: 1.03-2.74], use of 3 or more non-injection drugs (aHR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.12-3.57) and injection drug use (aHR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.08-6.89) were associated with viral rebound. CONCLUSIONS: Screening and treatment for alcohol, cigarette and drug use should be integrated into HIV outpatient clinics, while clinicians should be alert to the potential for poorer virological outcomes.

Trends in HIV incidence between 2013-2019 and association of baseline factors with subsequent incident HIV among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men attending sexual health clinics in England: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prospective cohort studies of incident HIV and associated factors among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) in the United Kingdom are lacking. We report time trends in and factors associated with HIV incidence between 2013 and 2019 among a cohort of GBMSM: the AURAH2 prospective study. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Participants were recruited through 1 of 3 sexual health clinics in London and Brighton (July 2013 to April 2016) and self-completed a baseline paper questionnaire and subsequent 4-monthly and annual online questionnaires (March 2015 to March 2018), including information on sociodemographics, lifestyle, health and well-being, HIV status, sexual/HIV-related behaviours, and preexposure prophylaxis and postexposure prophylaxis (PrEP/PEP). Incident HIV was ascertained by linkage with national HIV surveillance data from Public Health England (PHE). We investigated the associations of HIV incidence with (1) baseline factors using mixed-effects Weibull proportional hazard models, unadjusted and adjusted for age, country of birth and ethnicity, sexuality, and education level; and (2) time-updated factors, using mixed-effects Poisson regression models. In total, 1,162 men (mean age 34 years, 82% white, 94% gay, 74% university-educated) were enrolled in the study. Thirty-three HIV seroconversions occurred over 4,618.9 person-years (PY) of follow-up: an overall HIV incidence rate (IR) of 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51 to 1.00) per 100 PY. Incidence declined from 1.47 (95% CI 0.48 to 4.57) per 100 PY in 2013/2014 to 0.25 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.78) per 100 PY in 2018/2019; average annual decline was 0.85-fold (p < 0.001). Baseline factors associated with HIV acquisition included the following: injection drug use (6/38 men who reported injection drug-acquired HIV; unadjusted conditional hazard ratio (HR) 27.96, 95% CI 6.99 to 111.85, p < 0.001), noninjection chemsex-related drug use (13/321; HR 6.45, 95% CI 1.84 to 22.64, p < 0.001), condomless anal sex (CLS) (26/741; HR 3.75, 95% CI 1.31 to 10·74, p = 0.014); higher number of CLS partners (HRs >10 partners [7/57]; 5 to 10 partners [5/60]; and 2 to 4 partners [11/293]: 14.04, 95% CI 4.11 to 47.98; 9.60, 95% CI 2.58 to 35.76; and 4.05, 95% CI 1.29 to 12.72, respectively, p < 0.001); CLS with HIV-positive partners (14/147; HR 6.45, 95% CI 3.15 to 13.22, p < 0.001), versatile CLS role (21/362; HR 6.35, 95% CI 2.18 to 18.51, p < 0.001), group sex (64/500; HR 8.81, 95% CI 3.07 to 25.24, p < 0.001), sex for drugs/money (4/55, HR 3.27, 95% CI 1.14 to 9.38, p = 0.027) (all in previous 3 months); previous 12-month report of a bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnoses (21/440; HR 3.95, 95% CI 1.81 to 8.63, p < 0.001), and more than 10 new sexual partners (21/471, HRs 11 to 49, 50 to 99, and >100 new partners: 3.17, 95% CI 1.39 to 7.26; 4.40, 95% CI 1.35 to 14.29; and 4.84, 95% CI 1.05 to 22.4, respectively, p < 0.001). Results were broadly consistent for time-updated analysis (n = 622 men). The study's main limitation is that men may not be representative of the broader GBMSM population in England. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a substantial decline in HIV incidence from 2013 to 2019 among GBMSM attending sexual health clinics. Injection drug use, chemsex use, and measures of high-risk sexual behaviour were strongly associated with incident HIV. Progress towards zero new infections could be achieved if combination HIV prevention including Test and Treat strategies and routine commissioning of a PrEP programme continues across the UK and reaches all at-risk populations.

Causes of hospitalisation among a cohort of people with HIV from a London centre followed from 2011 to 2018.

BACKGROUND: We describe the spectrum of ICD-10 classified causes for hospitalisations occurring between 2011 and 2018 in a cohort of people living with HIV (PLHIV). METHODS: This sub-study includes 798 PLHIV participating in the Antiretroviral, Sexual Transmission Risk and Attitudes (ASTRA) questionnaire study who were recruited from a large London centre. A medical record review identified the occurrence and causes of hospitalisation from the date of questionnaire completion (February-December 2011) until 1 June 2018. Up to five causes were classified by an HIV clinician using the ICD-10 system. RESULTS: There were 274 hospitalisations in 153 people (rate = 5.8/100 person-years; 95% CI: 5.1, 6.5). Causes were wide-ranging; the most common were circulatory (16.8%), digestive (13.1%), respiratory (11.7%), infectious diseases (11.0%), injury/poisoning (10.6%), genitourinary diseases (9.9%) and neoplasms (9.1%). A tenth (27/274) of hospitalisations were related to at least one AIDS-defining illness. Median duration of hospitalisation was 5 days (IQR 2-9). At the time of hospitalisation, median CD4 count was high (510 cells/µl; IQR: 315-739), while median CD4 nadir was relatively low (113 cells/µl; IQR: 40-239). At admission, half of individuals (51%) had a previous AIDS-defining illness and 21% had viral load > 50 copies/ml. Individuals admitted for infectious diseases were particularly likely to have unfavourable HIV-related clinical characteristics (low CD4, viral non-suppression, not on antiretroviral therapy (ART), previous AIDS). CONCLUSIONS: In the modern combination antiretroviral therapy era, the spectrum of causes of hospitalisation in PLHIV in the UK is wide-ranging, highlighting the importance of holistic care for PLHIV, including prevention, early detection and treatment of comorbidities.

Impact and acceptability of HIV self-testing for trans men and trans women: A mixed-methods subgroup analysis of the SELPHI randomised controlled trial and process evaluation in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Globally, trans people are disproportionately affected by HIV, but research on strategies to increase testing are limited. SELPHI is a randomised-controlled-trial (RCT) of 10,135 cis men, trans men, and trans women reporting lifetime anal intercourse with male partners (cis or trans), evaluating whether the offer of free HIV self-testing (HIVST) increases diagnosis. This subgroup analysis from the SELPHI RCT aims to describe key HIVST outcomes and HIVST acceptability for trans people. METHODS: SELPHI recruited using social networking and trans focused social media. Participants were randomised 60/40 to baseline HIVST (Biosure™) (BT) vs no baseline HIVST (nBT); and at 3-months (if completed the survey and reported recent CAI) 50/50 to 3-monthly HIVST (RT) vs no repeat HIVST (nRT). Outcomes were self-reported through online surveys. We conducted a qualitative study of semi-structured peer-led participant interviews (n = 20) exploring HIVST motivations and experiences. These were analysed using a framework approach. FINDINGS: SELPHI recruited and randomised 118 trans men and trans women (94 trans men, 24 trans women), of whom 20 (16 trans men, 4 trans women) underwent the second randomisation. Median age at baseline was 29 (IQR: 22, 37), 79% were white, 79% were UK born, 37% had degree level education, and 31% had never tested for HIV. 62% (n = 59) of trans men completed the 3-month survey, but survey completion by trans women in nBT was too low (1/11) for randomised comparison. In trans men HIV testing uptake by 3 months was significantly higher in BT (95% 36/38) vs nBT (29%, 6/21) (RR=3.32 (1.68, 6.55) p<0.001). Trans people randomised to RT reported 3 times higher rate of HIV testing compared to nRT during the two-year follow-up (IRR 3.66 (1.86, 8.01) p<0.0001). STI testing frequency (mean number of tests during each 13 week period/ 2-year follow-up) was not significantly different across interventions: RT (0.03) and nRT (0.01) (IRR=1.86 95%CI; 0.77, 5.15; p = 0.15). Social harms were rare. Acceptability was very high in BT: 97% (38/39) found instructions easy to understand, 97% (37/38) found the HIVST simple to use and 100% (39/39) reported good overall experience. In interviews, reported HIVST benefits included increased autonomy, privacy, convenience and avoidance of health care providers perceived to be discriminatory and services that increased dysphoria. Minor lancet and test processing issues were reported. INTERPRETATION: HIVST significantly increased testing uptake and frequency in trans men and trans people overall, although recruitment and retention of trans women was low. HIVST acceptability was high and indicates easy access to this novel technology may increase HIV testing access for this key population.

Prospective association of social circumstance, socioeconomic, lifestyle and mental health factors with subsequent hospitalisation over 6-7 year follow up in people living with HIV.

BACKGROUND: Predictors of hospitalisation in people with HIV (PLHIV) in the contemporary treatment era are not well understood. METHODS: This ASTRA sub-study used clinic data linkage and record review to determine occurrence of hospitalisations among 798 PLHIV from baseline questionnaire (February to December 2011) until 1 June 2018. Associations of baseline social circumstance, socioeconomic, lifestyle, mental health, demographic and clinical factors with repeated all-cause hospitalisation from longitudinal data were investigated using Prentice-Williams-Peterson models. Associations were also assessed in 461 individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with viral load ≤50 copies/ml and CD4 count ≥500 cells/ µl. FINDINGS: Rate of hospitalisation was 5.8/100 person-years (95% CI: 5.1-6.5). Adjusted for age, demographic group and time with diagnosed HIV, the following social circumstance, socioeconomic, lifestyle and mental health factors predicted hospitalisation: no stable partner (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)=1.59; 95% CI=1.16-2.20 vs living with partner); having children (aHR=1.50; 1.08-2.10); non-employment (aHR=1.56; 1.07-2.27 for unemployment; aHR=2.39; 1.70-3.37 for sick/disabled vs employed); rented housing (aHR=1.72; 1.26-2.37 vs homeowner); not enough money for basic needs (aHR=1.82; 1.19-2.78 vs enough); current smoking (aHR=1.39; 1.02-1.91 vs never); recent injection-drug use (aHR=2.11; 1.30-3.43); anxiety symptoms (aHRs=1.39; 1.01-1.91, 2.06; 1.43-2.95 for mild and moderate vs none/minimal); depressive symptoms (aHRs=1.67; 1.17-2.38, 1.91; 1.30-2.78 for moderate and severe vs none/minimal); treated/untreated depression (aHRs=1.65; 1.03-2.64 for treated depression only, 1.87; 1.39-2.52 for depressive symptoms only; 1.53; 1.05-2.24; for treated depression and depressive symptoms, versus neither). Associations were broadly similar in those with controlled HIV and high CD4. INTERPRETATION: Social circumstance, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse lifestyle factors and poorer mental health are strong predictors of hospitalisation in PLHIV, highlighting the need for targeted interventions and care. FUNDING: British HIV Association (BHIVA) Research Award (2017); SMR funded by a PhD fellowship from the Royal Free Charity.

Recreational drug use and use of drugs associated with chemsex among HIV-negative and HIV-positive heterosexual men and women attending sexual health and HIV clinics in England.

BACKGROUND: There is little information on the prevalence of recreational drug use among UK heterosexual men and women, in particular on use of drugs associated with 'chemsex' within gay communities. The aim of this study was to examine among HIV-negative and HIV-positive heterosexual men and women in England: (i) the prevalence of recreational drug use (including use of drugs associated with chemsex), (ii) socio-economic/lifestyle correlates of drug use, and (iii) the association of drug use with sexual behavior measures and mental health symptoms. METHODS: Data are from the AURAH study of HIV-negative individuals attending sexual health clinics across England (2013-2014) and the ASTRA study of HIV-positive individuals attending HIV outpatient clinics in England (2011-2012). Prevalence of recreational drug use (past three months) and associations are presented separately among the four sample groups: HIV-negative (N = 470) and HIV-positive (N = 373) heterosexual men and HIV-negative (N = 676) and HIV-positive (N = 637) women. RESULTS: The age standardized prevalence of any drug use was 22.9%, 17.1%, 15.3%, and 7.1% in the four sample groups respectively. In all groups, cannabis was the drug most commonly used (range from 4.7% to 17.9%) followed by cocaine (1.6% to 8.5%). The prevalence of use of drugs associated with chemsex was very low among HIV-negative participants (1.0% heterosexual men, 0.2% women) and zero among HIV-positive men and women. In age-adjusted analysis, factors linked to drug use overall and/or to cannabis and cocaine use specifically in the four sample groups included Black/mixed Caribbean and white (vs. Black/mixed African) ethnicity, lower level of education , cigarette smoking, and higher risk alcohol consumption. Associations of recreational drug use with measures of condomless sex, depression, and anxiety were observed in the four groups, but were particularly strong/apparent among women. CONCLUSION: Providers need to be aware of cannabis and cocaine use and its potential link with sexual risk behavior and symptoms of depression and anxiety among heterosexual men and women attending sexual health and HIV clinics.